Free Trade

Americans Are Deeply Skeptical of Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Polls of consumers and surveys of business owners suggest the White House has a lot of convincing to do.

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Donald Trump in the Oval Office | CNP/AdMedia/Newscom
(CNP/AdMedia/Newscom)

As President Donald Trump prepares to announce his long-promised set of global tariffs on what he has dubbed "Liberation Day," he faces a public that is unconvinced those import taxes will boost the American economy.

A Fox News poll published last month found that 69 percent of Americans believe tariffs will make products more expensive, while just 7 percent say tariffs will reduce prices. The same poll found that 53 percent of Americans believe tariffs will harm the economy, while just 28 percent say they will improve it.

Confronted with those figures during an interview on Sunday, White House economic adviser Peter Navarro brushed off any worries and argued that businesses will have to "cut their prices to absorb" the costs of tariffs.

Navarro is a true believer who has never been swayed by economic data or reasoning, but his boss does not seem to share that same nonchalance. Trump has repeatedly warned that there will be some pain associated with his new trade policies. He's also reportedly tried ordering car companies to steer clear of price hikes in the wake of today's tariff announcement, which will include huge new import taxes on cars and car parts.

If tariffs were the secret to prosperity, as Trump has also claimed, would such arm twisting be necessary?

The president is probably right to worry. After years of high inflation, the American public voted Trump back into office on a promise that he'd combat higher prices and strengthen the economy. If tariffs go sideways, as polls show many seem to expect, it will puncture what is seen as one of Trump's core competencies.

That may already be happening. Only 40 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy (and only 38 percent approve of his handling of trade policy, specifically) in a new poll by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Similarly, a CBS News/YouGov poll from late last month showed the public has soured on Trump's economic approach since January. In that same poll, a majority of respondents said Trump was focused "too much" on tariffs and "not enough" on lowering prices.

Similar numbers show up in a recent poll conducted by Morning Consult for the National Retail Federation, which found that 76 percent of voters are "concerned about the impact of tariffs on prices" while 75 percent say politicians should focus on lowering prices for groceries and other everyday goods.

And that's before the price hikes from tariffs hit.

As a general rule, politicians shouldn't govern by simply following the polls and doing what is popular. Economic principles and critical thinking are essential in good leaders, and successful politicians can sort out when to seek applause and when to do the difficult thing.

In that regard, the biggest problem with Trump's tariff plan isn't that he's determined to buck public opinion to implement it. It's that he's embracing a bunk economic theory to pursue a nonsensical goal with policies that have a long track record of making people and nations poorer.

Still, public opinion carries a lot of weight in a democracy—and it should be readily apparent that American consumers are not willing to endure the pain that Trump is now threatening.

Probably the best polling on tariffs that I've seen was conducted last year by the Cato Institute, which asked consumers if they'd support a tariff on imported blue jeans to increase blue jeans manufacturing jobs in America. About 62 percent of respondents said yes.

But wait a moment. When told that the tariff would make jeans just $10 more expensive at the store, support for that policy flipped: Now, 66 percent opposed it. And if the tariff would make jeans $25 more expensive, an overwhelming 81 percent said no.

Trump is heading into his "Liberation Day" with a baseline of support for tariffs that seems considerably weaker than what that Cato poll showed. When tariffs make lots of things more expensive—because that's what they do—he'll reap the reward he deserves.