A Failed State
Plus: Israeli hostage update, ultraprocessed childhoods, and more...
Wildfires continue to burn in California: Overnight, the fires in and around Los Angeles continued to worsen. Five people have died, 2,000 structures have been destroyed, and 27,000 acres have been consumed so far. The Palisades fire is not yet under control, and 37,000 people have evacuated from that fire alone. But the Eaton fire and the Hurst fire also rage in Southern California, and a new one started overnight in the Hollywood Hills, which has since been gotten under control. CalFire reports that the Palisades fire is the most destructive in Los Angeles' history and ranks in the top 20 of the most destructive fires of all time for the state. In total, more than 130,000 people are under evacuation orders right now.
"As officials make assessments, it's likely that the damage estimates for the Palisades Fire will go up," reports The New York Times. "For comparison, the three most destructive fires in California history—the Camp Fire, which in 2018 destroyed the town of Paradise; the Tubbs fire in Napa and Sonoma counties in 2017; and the Oakland Hills Fire in 1991—destroyed roughly 18,800, 5,600 and 2,900 structures."
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Authorities have struggled to bring the fires under control. At times, they ran out of water, with fire hydrants somehow running dry, which Gov. Gavin Newsom seems to believe is a problem he doesn't need to attempt to understand.
California governor Gavin Newsom is asked why the fire hydrants have no water. Says he doesn't know, local people will have to figure it out. California "leadership" is a disgrace: pic.twitter.com/fyyaupAyvZ
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 9, 2025
"The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power was pumping from aqueducts and groundwater into the system, but demand was so high that it wasn't enough to refill three 1-million gallon tanks in hilly Pacific Palisades that help pressurize hydrants for the neighborhood. Many went dry as at least 1,000 buildings were engulfed in flames," according to the Associated Press. Demand was reportedly about four times greater than what was available in the hydrants, and about 20 percent of the hydrants in the area ran dry. (Maybe Newsom should read Roundup to figure out what's happening before he goes on camera!)
At other times, aircraft were not able to be used to fight the fires due to winds reaching 80 to 100 miles per hour, grounding helicopters and planes. By Wednesday afternoon, they had weakened to 50 to 60 miles per hour, according to meteorologists with the National Weather Service, meaning aircraft could start fighting the fires from above.
It's all horribly tragic, and California's governance isn't helping matters much. For starters, L.A. Mayor Karen Bass was traveling in Ghana as the wildfires started, only returning yesterday afternoon. (Very Ted Cruz of her.) The absenteeism has rubbed many Angelenos the wrong way, and Bass has no good justification for why she didn't cancel her trip as the weather warnings grew more severe.
Let me count the ways California has failed: One major issue at play is the lack of controlled burns that the state should be using to manage its forests. Why might this be? Well, because the mandated environmental reviews end up stymying efforts.
Yup. When the Forest Service identifies high-risk forests needing prescribed burns, it takes an average of 4.7 YEARS just to get through environmental reviews. For complex projects, it's 7.2 years - longer than many fire cycles. https://t.co/nITtIe9bDd pic.twitter.com/p9i1hmeQne
— Tahra Jirari (@tahrajirari) January 8, 2025
Truly wild how the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) ends up making it harder to do the environmentally sound thing and actually get ahead of destructive problems like wildfires.
Destructive wildfires are unfortunately common in the U.S., but they don't have to be
Sadly, when the Forest Service applies to treat more forest to prevent wildfires, they have to undergo NEPA review, delaying their ability to do their jobs.
Result? Flammable, overgrown woods. pic.twitter.com/G48vxSGu1g
— Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil) July 26, 2024
Oh, also, California has repeatedly harassed insurance companies: To understand this, we have to back up a bit.
Back in 2017 and 2018, when wildfires raged throughout the state, a lot of insurers drastically scaled back their coverage. Those wildfires had cost them $23 billion in total, about twice as much as the companies had collected in premiums over that same time period, and many of the companies decided some of these places were simply too costly to insure.
Premiums, after all, are not arbitrary; they reflect risk. Teams of actuaries spend a lot of time trying to understand what prices to offer homeowners in any given area. Unfortunately, in California, the insurance commissioner—an elected official, Ricardo Lara—must approve premium increases. Lara generally won't approve high premium increases, which leads to the predictable outcome of insurers pulling out. Something Lara is also seeking to, uh, "fix" via government coercion.
"For the first time in history we are requiring insurance companies to expand where people need help the most," he announced last month. "Major insurance companies must increase the writing of comprehensive policies in wildfire distressed areas equivalent to no less than 85% of their statewide market share," he continued.
Yes, you understand this correctly: He thinks bullying private insurers into covering costly wildfire-prone areas (as opposed to allowing them to accurately price risk) will result in more coverage for homeowners. Look forward to, when it gets costly enough, State Farm and the like totally pulling out of the whole state. Lara, contra his own hubris, can't force the financials to work. (Somehow, many progressives cannot comprehend this cycle of cause and effect.)
But don't worry, there's another option. "Homeowners have largely replaced their fire coverage with a state plan of last resort called the California FAIR plan, an insurance pool, which covers up to $3 million in damages for residential properties and $20 million for commercial ones," reports The New York Times. "Between September 2020 and September 2024, the number of FAIR policies for dwellings grew by 123 percent, to 452,000 policies." The FAIR fund, though, was widely expected to become insolvent in the event of catastrophe—which any California-watcher knows is not an if but rather a when, given the wildfire track record over the last few years.
Last year, State Farm canceled 1,600 policies in Pacific Palisades because the state would not allow them to raise premiums enough to cover their exposure. The affected homeowners would then likely have to rely on the state-run FAIR Plan, an expensive last-resort insurance… pic.twitter.com/xe9bLPtaN3
— Laura Powell (@LauraPowellEsq) January 9, 2025
"What happens when the FAIR Plan becomes insolvent?" asks California attorney Laura Powell. "The insurers who haven't already left the state are required to bail the program out. The loss will be passed on as a surcharge to all the homeowners in the state. Living in California is about to get even more unaffordable." This is true, and a disturbing reality that is becoming more likely with each passing minute (and dollar of damage).
If it sounds like I'm being snarky, I am. Not because the plight of these homeowners doesn't matter to me, but rather because it matters so much that I think their governments should stop sabotaging the companies that are trying to serve them, as the government cannot and has not come up with a better alternative.
As an aside: The FAIR plan has failed to satisfy many homeowners, contra Lara's peachy press releases. Per the Los Angeles Times reporting back in July, it "was sued last week by four California residents who claim its policies offer subpar coverage for fire and smoke damage. The proposed class-action lawsuit seeks to represent more than 300,000 of the plan's residential policyholders. The plan also is facing a lawsuit from more than 1,000 homeowners in Los Angeles who say the plan wrongly denied their claims."
TLDR: The wildfires are California's first crisis with which it must contend. The politicians are its second.
Scenes from New York: City disorder back here on the East Coast, chronicled by one of my best friends. The replies are absolutely unhinged.
Respectfully, what am I supposed to do when the literal only path for me to get me + an infant/toddler from below ground on the subway to above ground is an elevator that a crazy person is clearly posted up in and not leaving?
— nicole ruiz (@nwilliams030) January 7, 2025
QUICK HITS
- A good take:
Three things that all seem clearly true to me:
* America would benefit from owning Greenland
* Greenlanders would benefit from being Americans
* America trying to make this happen by force or against popular will would be deeply evil— Jeremiah Johnson ???? (@JeremiahDJohns) January 8, 2025
- "The Israeli military said on Wednesday that it had discovered the body of a hostage taken from Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 in an underground tunnel in the area of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, along with evidence that raises questions about the state of another, related captive," reports The New York Times. "The deceased hostage was identified as Youssef Ziyadne of Rahat, an Arab Bedouin city in southern Israel. Mr. Ziyadne, who was in his 50s, and three of his grown children, were abducted from a kibbutz where he and two of the children had been working during the Hamas-led attack on Israel that ignited the war in Gaza." Two of the children, both teenagers, have been released in a prior hostage deal, but the third—22-year-old Hamza Ziyadne—may also be dead, per the Israeli military. Of the 250 hostages initially taken by Hamas terrorists on that terrible day, 100 have yet to be returned to their families, with roughly a third of that group likely to be dead.
- Terrifying/predictable:
Of course Bernie Sanders opposes nuclear power pic.twitter.com/isFrhkaInw
— Chris Freiman (@cafreiman) January 8, 2025
- "Lebanon's parliament elected army chief Joseph Aoun head of state on Thursday, filling the vacant presidency with a general who enjoys U.S. approval and showing the diminished sway of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group after its devastating war with Israel," reports Reuters.
- A GOOD PHRASE:
You heard it here 1st. My new phrase:
ULTRAPROCESSED CHILDHOOD
We are doing so much with & for our kids, childhood's nutrients--free play, exploring, down time--have been leached out, replaced by adult-run, homogenized activities.
Nutritional value is low. Kids are drooping.
— Lenore Skenazy (@FreeRangeKids) January 8, 2025
