How Mass Deportation Will Disrupt America's Food Supply Chain
We desperately need to reform visa pathways instead.

Grocery prices might not be rising as quickly as in previous years, but they were still a major factor in getting people to the polls during this month's elections. According to A.P. VoteCast, 96 percent of those surveyed considered high prices for gas, groceries, and other goods when they voted.
But the centerpiece of President-elect Donald Trump's immigration policy—his proposal to deport millions of undocumented immigrants—could badly disrupt the country's food supply and raise grocery costs, given the share of farmworkers and food workers who are undocumented. That possibility is a reminder of how urgently the U.S. needs to reform its agricultural visas and related pathways.
Immigrants make up a disproportionate share of the country's food production work force, including through the H-2A program, which provides visas for temporary agricultural workers. Though 17 percent of civilian workers from 2017 to 2021 were immigrants, per the Migration Policy Institute, 28 percent of agricultural workers, 25 percent of food production workers, 22 percent of grocery and farm product wholesalers, and 31 percent of crop production workers were foreign-born. Over one-third of meat processing workers and commercial bakery workers were immigrants.
Undocumented immigrants are heavily represented among foreign-born food production workers. Though they make up just 5 percent of the country's labor force, undocumented immigrants represented 15 percent of food production workers and 12 percent of food processing workers, an Investigate Midwest analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Pew Research Center data found. From 2020 to 2022, 42 percent of farmworkers were undocumented, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service.
Mass deportation could create labor shortages across many parts of America's food supply chain, limiting harvesting and production capacity for farms, wholesalers, and other businesses, and raising prices for consumers. Even a more modest version of Trump's deportation plan—which Vice President–elect J.D. Vance has suggested might involve removing 1 million people per year—would destabilize America's food supply chain. The Peterson Institute for International Economics projected that agriculture would suffer the worst inflation of any sector as a result of mass deportation, "which is not surprising as up to 16 percent of that sector's workforce could be removed, resulting in higher prices."
There's little reason to believe that native-born Americans will be willing to fill the arduous and repetitive food production roles currently filled by immigrants. The Department of Labor "has continuously raised H-2A minimum wages to induce U.S. workers to apply, but Department of Agriculture economists have concluded that 'farm labor supply in the United States is not very responsive to wage changes,'" wrote David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, in 2020. American workers "accept only 1 in 20 H-2A job offers," Bier found, "and most later quit."
The large share of undocumented farmworkers and other food workers in the U.S. indicates that legal pathways aren't working as they should. One potential fix is the Farm Workforce Modernization Act, which has been introduced in Congress several times and has passed the House twice. The bill would create a pathway to legal status for foreign workers who are continually employed in agriculture and modify the H-2A program to be more responsive to the forces of supply and demand, including by allowing the annual visa cap to increase or decrease more readily. This would grant American employers access to a more reliable labor stream and help divert would-be undocumented workers into legal pathways, reducing unauthorized migration and opportunities for abuse.
Mass deportation would come at a great cost to families, communities, and employers, and undocumented immigrants won't be the only people to feel the consequences. They could affect food supply and inflation in ways that are felt by all American consumers. That possibility alone underscores the urgent need to establish and improve visa pathways for the workers who keep America's food supply chain afloat.
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Absolutely need reform in the immigration system. Doctors immigrating to the US needing 15 years to become a citizen is ridiculous. The process is a convoluted mess that needs to be torn down and rebuilt.
Concern over food workers is overblown like Rand Paul worried about the house cleaner that's been here 30 years.
To get to a million per year, get the low hanging fruit.
Shipping out those with crimes committed in the US (660,000) and with deportation orders (1,300,000) is the first two million and NONE of them are picking crops or working anywhere.
Cutting all free housing, food, clothing, etc. With no benefits, many will self-deport.
ICE at every asylum hearing, removing the illegal upon receipt of the deportation order.
Keep every new crosser at the border or in Mexico. Do not let them into the US. Anyone crossing outside an authorized entry port is immediately shipped out without hearing as they could not even follow the simplest of rules. If you cannot cross at an authorized port, you are automatically rejected for asylum. Anyone caught with contraband is immediately expelled. Contraband is not with someone seeking asylum by fiat.
Have asylum judges at the border. EVERY single male 15-45 should be adjudicated immediately. Cut the line to keep potential terrorists out of the country.
Easily to achieve 1 Million per year without disturbing the workforce.
No one had their panties in a wad when Obama deported 3,000,000. I guess he had the correct party (D)esignation.
With no benefits, many will self-deport.
This is the most obvious solution. The second is targeting the business that avoid all the stupid state regulations, taxes and wage laws by hiring illegals.
Isn't deporting just one or two million like bailing out the Titanic with a bucket?
Trump actually increased work visas last time he was president and will again. tired of the lies from reason
Libertarians for foreign subsidized underclass.
Getting immigrant workers to fill vacant jobs is not the problem.
No, we need to innovate in the ag industry so that we don't have to rely on peon labor for our food.
We must continue to have slave labor !
/fiona
Grow your own. Though there might be less time for Netflix and sportsball.
This is stupid. Every single article Reason publishes on this subject is dumber than the last.
And it’s not even original. This is the same exact nonsense these left-wing liars said about GlobLOL waRmInG.
How Mass Deportation Will Disrupt America’s Food Supply Chain – We desperately need to reform visa pathways instead.
aka "THE SKY IS FALLING – Meaning we need Radical Leftist Policies!"
Rinse, repeat. Go to hell Fiona.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXWhbUUE4ko
Yup, the progressive Catastrophe Routine has been exposed:
1. Find (or invent) a problem and declare a crisis.
2. Set an annihilation date.
3. Demand tax money and authoritative power.
4. When the date arrives without the world ending, double down, set a new date, and demand more money and power. Also gloat and scold whenever possible.
Note that the scheme never includes declaring victory, since that might make some people think the crisis is over.
Fiona, no illegal alien is harvesting food like that. No one is going to allow an illegal alien to operate a $200,000 combine. Most of the crops picked by hand (of which there are fewer and fewer every year) are picked by experienced migrants to have work permits or visas specifically for doing so.
No one is going to allow an illegal alien to operate a $200,000 combine.
Slight disagreement. Massive corporate farms for whom an illegal immigrant killing a family of 8 with a semi and no CDL is an insurance write off will let them operate a combine... and the State of IL will solve the problem of people being killed by illegal immigrant drivers without license by issuing temporary driver's licenses.
I agree regarding the skilled/semi-skilled labor being needed for certain activities. Once worked at an apple orchard/cider production farm and they imported the same five guys each year.
Smaller farms still have semi-manual activities for propagating, planting, cultivating, and harvesting. Also visited an ornamentals nursery (I know, not food) that had dozens of imported workers. They even had three full time cooks. There was a barracks onsite. Asking questions regarding legal status was frowned upon.
Outside of organic farms and smaller “family” farms (+ the Amish), potato growing here is mostly mechanized. One county still has a few weeks off after the school year begins to allow the kids to harvest dug potatoes. The low bush blueberry fields I believe are still hand raked. There was a nearby or hard that had some grey area deal with a prison to get the labor to pick the apples.
The massive tens of thousands of acres farms are likely void of illegals doing any labor.
One of his biggest areas where illegal aliens get used for agriculture is in the meat packing industry. It’s a bit lower skill than most anything else. The carcasses get put on a disassembly line and each worker just cuts off the same part every time*. Does no one remember the raids that used to go on at meat processing plants for illegal aliens?
*Fun fact: Henry Ford actually got his idea for applying the assembly line to automobile manufacturing from the animal carcass disassembly lines at the meat processing plants in Chicago.
Southern Delaware has a huge chicken growing and processing industry (mostly Tyson or Purdue, I can never remember which). If even 50% of the workers were legal, I’d be shocked. They’ve run periodic ICE raids over the years and each time several processing facilities have shut down for months because they don’t have the necesssary workers. Somehow, those jobs remain unfilled by legal workers, but after a few months new illegal workers show up and eventually the plants open up again.
If you want to see people go ballistic about inflation, watch what happens when the meat processing plants shut down and ground beef hits $30/pound. Supply and demand doesn’t care what you think you should pay. It’s cruel like that.
Better Living Through Slavery!™
Several years ago they were building retirement homes in my area. The construction workers were Mexicans with visas. There was an uproar when it was discovered that some of them were renting trailers at a nearby trailer park. That they were renting the trailers wasn't the issue. The issue was that there were 20 of them staying in each trailer. This wasn't a case of the Employer packing them in, this was their own choice. They were being paid a wage and per diem. This way they could keep all of their wages and most of the per diem. One of them told me that if he worked one contract per year, he and his family could maintain a nice lifestyle in Mexico. It doesn't sound any different from when I did Aerospace Contracting in the 80's. 10 guys sharing a hotel room, 5 on each shift. They'd work 3 or 4 months out of the year and then kick back the rest of the year. At that time they didn't get unemployment.
Fuck off you dishonest cunt. You've been cheering open borders without restriction or a care for the costs and are now in the bargaining phase. If you'd started at reforming visas I might think you were doing something beyond a dishonest bad faith argument that you'll ignore the moment you think you'll get away with turning America into the marxist hellscape you seem to desire.
Not just food.
Like having a gardener come around every week?
Like having your car washed at a high but finite price?
Like having a housekeeper on occasion?
Like construction projects?
Huh. I was told it was doctors and engineers that were pouring across the border.
1. Who the fuck hires a gardener outside of the Democrat upper middle class/upper class?
2. Most people go down to the $5 car wash to wash their cars. Those are automated except for an operator.
3. Again, who the fuck outside of the Democrat upper class uses a housekeeper? We have these things called appliances we normies use. You know, like vacuum cleaners, brooms, washing machines.
4. I keep seeing this claimed for construction projects. Yet, most reputable construction workers belong to unions if they’re working on big projects. Union construction workers are not illegal aliens.
I've done all of those jobs!
You're right that it is mostly upper class liberals (at the time they typically had a Prius with a coexist sticker as well as their high dollar vehicles.) Most of the people I worked with were Hispanic or black.
Some of the worst people I did that work for were overt about their politics. Lots of nitpicking, refusal to pay, threats of lawsuits, or accusations of theft. Fuck em.
“ Yet, most reputable construction workers belong to unions if they’re working on big projects”
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!
Sure, all those “right-to-work” states are crawling with unions! There are more illegals working construction in right-to-work states than union states. Are you just figuring out that the people rebuilding after every hurricane can’t speak English for a reason?
1. Pretty much every homeowner in Deep Blue country hires a gardener. That's at least many tens of thousands of jobs for those who speak little or no English.
2. Yeah, you can wash your own car, but if you want it done quickly, thoroughly, and moderately well, the guys with the darker-shaded skin are the ones who do it.
3. Prosperity means being willing and able to use your time for high-value activities, while getting someone else to do the lower-value things. Check out the concept of comparative advantage.
4. Big projects, sure. Walk around town, though, you'll see lots of single family houses under construction, getting new roofs, being remodeled.
Listen as you walk by: Spanish is the lingua franca on all of the above. How many are legal? If it were up to me, I'd legalize them all.
1) I grow my own and do my own.
2) I wash my own vehicles. A pressure washer is your friend. Two bucket method after with a foam canon attachment.
3) Way too decadent for me. Never.
4) I love them. With the exception of a few long haul deliveries, the labor is local.
Not saying these aren’t occurring, but my experiences are different. I don’t live in or anywhere near a blue city.
I need my cheap brown servants!
Fuck your elitist necessities. Do your own yard work, wash your own car, and clean your own house. As for labor, aren't you leftists supposed to treasure unions and high wages?
Those are for white people.
Where do you live that people are generally unable to take care of things and clean up after themselves in such a fashion?
Lemme guess, when the world went on lockdown, you panicked and called Uber Eats.
Farmers hope that their workers aren't deported:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-farm-groups-want-trump-spare-their-workers-deportation-2024-11-25/
How did they vote?
https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/11/13/trump-election-farming-counties-trade-war/
Another win for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party!
Obvious Conclusion – ‘Reuters’ is completely Full of Leftard BullSh*t.
Course that conclusion requires a brain bigger than a parrot of BS.
Posted by a commenter full of shit also.
Ah yes, because a site contains news you don't like, it's leftard.
What a monomaniacal cretin you are.
I tend to not like contradiction and propaganda filled hype.
The fact the Left-supports eat that BS up is what makes them Leftarded.
You define "propaganda and hype" by what you wish to be true,
Meanwhile, other sources are reporting the same thing. IS "Dairy News" some left-wing propaganda outfit?
https://dairynews.today/global/news/us-farm-groups-urge-trump-to-exempt-agricultural-workers-from-deportation-plan.html
"David Ortega, a food economics professor at Michigan State University" ... sayes.
It takes about 2-seconds to find the BS if you cared to look.
Farmers hope that their slaves aren’t deported
Fixed that for you
Not a bad edit, and preserves the point of my post.
And yet who will be baffled when the price of meat doubles or triples? Who will be stunned the exorbitant cost of new houses (especially considering lumber is about to jump 25%, too)? Who will wonder about the lack of pride suddenly befalling businesses who don’t keep up their landscaping? Who will be shocked about the sudden rise in rent to cover the increased cost of landscaping? Who will wax nostalgic for the days when a nice dinner out with their wife cost less than $300?
Paleocons are about to discover that out of the hardworking, law-abiding illegal immigrant narrative and the dangerous, criminal illegal immigrant narrative, one is much, much, much more true than the other. And they’ll find out through their bank accounts.
The funniest part, to me, is that I oppose illegal immigration. I’m just not so stupid as to believe that they don’t have a huge effect on our economy and if you want to deport the hardworking ones, you’d better have a plan to replace them in the labor pool or things are going to get really expensive, really fast. It’ll make the MMT inflation of a few years ago look like amateur hour.
You’re a moron. You obviously don’t understand how construction costs break down at all. As if labor costs are the entirety of a construction budget.
I would explain more, but you’re too stupid to understand, and too dishonest to admit the truth.
Your point is a contradiction..
I have to ask; Which end of your multi-dimensional point?
First you say Farmers are upset about deportation then you link 80% of them supported deportation. Perhaps you need more AL foil in that hat of yours.
Fuckwit, I am pointing out the contradiction of their position that they voted for a man who had as one of his top campaign policies the deportation of illegals and that they don't want him to do it. Take the issue up with them.
Hence, too, my comment about the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.
'their position' as you claim is nothing but you buying BS propaganda.
"undocumented immigrant" = ILLEGAL INVADER.
Your soft-core words are just BS propaganda.
Why don't you condemn the farmers who don't want their workers/slaves (per ML) deported?
Wasn't it you who just showed almost 80% of farmers supported Trump whos very campaign was deportation?
Yes. Shows their inconsistency at the very least. Or are you stupid enough to think that if I point out someone else's hypocrisy, I'm a hypocrite, not them?
The only inconsistency is the BS propaganda you want to believe and the actual evidence.
As-if that evidence isn't all over this comments section as well as the numbers. Do you see all the Trump supporters here demonizing deportation?
That's just more Leftard Self-Projection, "I have contradictory Ideas! And it's all Trumps Fault that I have contradictory Ideas!"
This is a one-to-one transplant of the same economic argument slavers made: “who’s going to pick the cotton?”.
And just like the last go around, those who stand to make maximum money by having zero (or near zero) labor costs oppose any changes.
165 years and the Democrats haven’t changed at all.
Fuckwit, it's the GOP trying to deport while their supporters voted for deportation - but in many cases don't want this to apply to their own workers.
You have NO legitimate source for you FALSE claim about exceptions to deportation.
I provided two sources. Now fuck off.
Psst, bruv, the Democrats are the ones who wanted to keep their slaves then just like they’re the ones that want to keep their indentured servants now.
Not what the voting stats showed - link already provided.
BTW the 1960s are a long time ago. Do keep up.
Your comments make no sense in the context of ITL’s. It’s not the Democrats supporting deportation of illegal immigrants. Where are these supposed voting stats showing otherwise.
Oh wait, do you subscribe to the dumbfuck theory that the parties flipped in the 60’s?
It's so funny to hear the party-of-slavery try to pull yet another Self-Projection. "It wasn't us ... It was the GOP!". Is there an honest bone anywhere in a Leftard?
Never forget that Congressional Democrats voted 100% down the line against a bill to deport illegal immigrants convicted of a violent crime.
It's absolutely astounding. The mindset of someone who thinks like that ...
They oppose deporting even violent criminals. Insanity.
If you think of them as evil space aliens who are trying to destroy human civilization it all makes sense.
And they have the chutzpah to accuse Trump of being a traitor.
This is one of MANY reasons that I keep saying the democrat party has no right to exist.
reform visa pathways instead.
No, retard, we need to greatly improve border security, deport illegal invaders, enforce immigration laws, AND create a better process to let in and keep track of foreign guest workers. It doesn't make any difference what our rules for foreign workers and immigrants are if foreigners can literally walk around the process. In many fields, there will always be a preference for illegal workers, who work cheaper and can't complain about abusive conditions. Creating more opportunities for workers to enter legally will have little effect on illegal entries as long as we leave the border wide open. Illegal workers will continue to be more desirable, and those who come to get on the dole or engage in crime will also continue to enter illegally.
“We desperately need to reform visa pathways i̶n̶s̶t̶e̶a̶d in addition to *mass deportation"
fixed it for you.
But without border security and vigorous deportation of invaders, the "rules" are just theater.
Always nice to see the inner slave owner of the political class come out every time people talk about restricting immigration. The only reason it's not high school kids and adults who flunked out of school doing those jobs is because the lax immigration policies on the southern border of the past 60 years minus Trump's time in office pushed those groups out of that work precisely because they could treat the subclass more like indentured servants than workers they had to negotiate with properly.
Fiona, every now and then you should get off of Uncle Charles' lap (and off your knees).
Over the past 12 hours, multiple members of President Trump’s Cabinet and Administration have been targeted with b*mb threats and swatting incidents.
The threats were all traced to 935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington DC
Saw that too. Except the FSB didn’t include that address. 😉
We have 1.3 million people that have applied for asylum, worked their way thru the appeal process and exhausted all options to remain in the U.S., they are the EASIEST group to deport.
When asylum seekers break the law and commit violent/dangerous crimes, they lose asylum status and should be deported after serving their sentence. This is the second easiest group to deport.
A third group are those that snuck across the border and have no legal status - no visa, no asylum claim, nothing.
Focus on those three groups, and this issue will soon get under control.
We don't have to separate families - family members can self-deport when their family member is forced to deported.
This is a manageable problem, what we've lacked for the past few years is the will to carry out current laws written.
I don't think Laken Riley was concerned with the food labor shortage.
Crops rotting in the fields, cattle and hogs going unslaughtered, jobs Americans won't do left undone.
Am I right?
How Mass Deportation Will Disrupt America's Food Supply Chain
We desperately need to reform visa pathways instead.
FALSE dichotomy. You can argue for Visa reform, and I will probably agree with much or that argument. However, stating that as "instead" of deporting illegals is intellectual FRAUD.
Welcome to Reason. Intellectual fraud is their bread and butter.
I’ve been coming here for about 11 years now, it’s really gone downhill. Trump broke most of the staff.
I know many reason writers have a stick up their ass for open borders, but y'all need to quit that - and focus on why Libertarianism came to be to begin with, getting the government out of us citizens lives, National defense, and that includes borders, is something that Libertarianism supports.
We the people have witnessed four years of the worst results from not even completely open borders - other countries criminals roaming freely and tons of individuals not here for a legit better life, but living in shelters, absorbing whatever handouts they can get and largely not being employed because there are no fucking jobs for them. And I seriously doubt most of them are looking for seasonal picking jobs, not when they've planted themselves smack dab in the middle of sanctuary cities miles from any farm.
And we the people (a clear majority) said, "enough!". You want visa reform, sure. You want a better system for importing good labor that we need, certainly. But first, most of these interloper SOB's need to go back. And might I suggest that those responsible for the last four years be sent the bill - including the dumbasses here who couldn't use reason to predict what a shit show we would get from, effectively, open borders.
They’re not libertarians at all. Most of the writers here are either straight up progs (Little Emma), or hipster democrats cosplaying at being libertarian (Welch, Boehm, Sullum, etc.) to appear ‘edgy’. But within democrat acceptable limits.
Those beltway cocktail party invitations don’t send themselves.
Okay, but how good will that food taste knowing Tren de Aragua killed your neighbors ????
Typical REason argument: Let's only talk about things that have numbers attached, like how many migrants work on farms
Relax. The Democrat Media made it clear that they only took over and immediately terrorized a few apartment complexes. And gosh, think about it, they're only even in two-fifths of American states. That means there's at least 30 states where they're not. Yaaay.
Framing, Paper. Framing.
(Just, please don't bring up MS13 too.)
Let them kill everyone and if they don't kill me , then all is well.
See a doctor
Here is Jack Marshall's take.
https://ethicsalarms.com/2024/11/28/its-about-time-finally-another-progressive-fake-stat-used-to-justify-open-boarders-has-been-debunked/
FH;dr
Complete bullshit. Fiona is so delusional.
I can still see humor in an article the body of which contradicts the headline. First of all, those migrant workers hate the gangsters, and murderers, terrorists, and drug dealers coming from their country into here. Secondly, you think that migrant life is made better by the same people everybody else fears. Does that even make sense?
WHy not write an article about the path to citizenship? I'll tell yo why --- because you yourself are not aware that
2 of 3 Americans Wouldn’t Pass U.S. Citizenship Test
A survey found that people aged 65 and older were more likely to pass the test than those aged 45 and younger.
Bet the writer is 45 or younger. Any takers ???
Same basic article in the Wall Street Journal a week or so go, must be something going on...
America needs to decide what it wants: cheapest possible goods and services or a stable, reliable and socially responsible (can't believe I wrote that) economic system. Stop bringing in cheap crap from the PRC that can be made here for another 10%, implement national right-to-work law, stop transfer payouts to people who can work but don't, and staunch the flow of undocumented immigration. But things WILL cost more.
TANSTAAFL.
This is delusional thinking and totally false. But even if it were true it's irrelevant. Every single criminal invader MUST be deported. We cannot allow this lawless behavior. The only acceptable illegal immigration number is ZERO.