Did Trump Run an Actually Good Campaign?
Plus: New Jersey the swing state, Dick Cheney isn't brat, and more...
Consider the possibility (though Democratic strategists might not) that Donald Trump actually ran a pretty good campaign and Kamala Harris ran a pretty poor one.
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Not on libertarian grounds, in terms of which policies each candidate was advocating, but in terms of what would be salient to the people whose votes they needed. Trump focused, quite aggressively, on border and cost of living. He created a plan for deporting those who are in the country illegally and dispatched his vice presidential pick, J.D. Vance, with talking points as to how this would happen. He conscripted literal rocket builder/Tesla creator/memelord Elon Musk to his cause, who started doling out his megabucks to voters pledging to vote and to respect the Constitution. Trump had some kind of odd yet relatable things he became obsessed with—no taxes on tips, for example—which is kind of par for the course with him. (Remember how, years ago, he was obsessed with how efficiency standards and how many flushes modern toilets require?)
It took Harris—who never had to win over her party or prove her ability to meet the moment via a primary—quite a bit of time to begin to populate her website with policy proposals. When she did, the policies failed to meet the moment: tax credits that would help developers build more starter homes, down payment assistance for buyers that would merely subsidize demand, lip service in favor of YIMBY policies—decided at a more local level—but not much more. She talked about taming grocery prices not by working to remedy inflation (and eschewing policies that would worsen it again) but by cracking down on…those greedy grocers and their price gouging. (The government can simply set price controls, she offered.) She ran much of her campaign on "joy" and vibes, picking a not-so-strategic running mate in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and she managed to walk back some of the most progressive positions she had touted in 2019, the first time she ran for president, casting herself as a tough prosecutor on the side of the law—opposite Trump, a convicted felon.
On one of the most salient issues—abortion—Harris just didn't have as much of an advantage. Though her team kept trying to strike fear into the hearts of moderate pro-choice voters, claiming Trump would institute a nationwide abortion ban if given the chance, Trump embraced abortion moderation (and the Republican Party platform to some degree followed, pissing off the pro-lifers).
But the Democratic Party, riven by Israel/Palestine and progressive criminal justice policies and identity politics, doesn't look very unified right now, nor is there a clear sense of what message is needed to persuade voters. Trump-support vote totals in traditionally blue areas—including cities like New York—were shockingly high this time around; it's like high cost of living and a perception of high crime and disorder lead to voters being bearish on Democratic policies.
Don't try to buy people's votes! This sure looked like an inflation election in which people saw a vote for Donald Trump as a repudiation of not just Kamala Harris, but the policies put in place by the Biden administration, which she represents. And part of what the Biden administration did was pass the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which cost $1.9 trillion and doled out several rounds of stimulus checks to middle- and low-income Americans (defined quite generously), purportedly to help them bear the economic turbulence—job losses, business closures—that came from the pandemic.
At the time, it was very popular. But then the bill came due, as it always does, in the form of inflation. In June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1 percent; since plenty of the developed world dealt with high inflation too, it was attributable to things beyond "my government tried to curry favor with me by handing me cash." In fact, the Biden administration kind of kept doing this—in the form of student loan forgiveness, much of which was quashed by the courts.
Voters rated inflation as the #1 issue, and the $1.9T American Rescue Plan may have lost Dems the White House. Inflation was already set to spike modestly as the pandemic economy reopens, and economists on the left & right warned Biden that adding $1.9 trillion to a…
— Brian Riedl ???? ???????? (@Brian_Riedl) November 6, 2024
Perhaps one takeaway for Democrats could be that just handing people money doesn't work, because there are always consequences to this decision, and sometimes the consequences outweigh the gains. In fact, the economic hardship created by years of higher-than-usual inflation probably outstripped all personal budget padding (and, in many cases, increased economic activity in the form of spending) brought by the stimulus checks.
Scenes from New York: OK, so technically I'm talking about New Jersey today, our much-maligned neighbor. Yesterday I mentioned in Roundup that, though Kamala Harris won it, Trump came within five points of her, making it "the closest presidential showing for a Republican since George H.W. Bush lost by 2.4 points in 1992," reports Politico. "Tuesday night's margin is more striking considering registered Democratic voters in New Jersey grew threefold over Republicans since then and now have a 900,000 voter advantage."
Is New Jersey a swing state now, or at least trending in that direction?
It has some of the highest taxes and cost of living in the country, hit hard by inflation. It's ethnically quite diverse, with a large Latino and large Arab-American population. "I think you saw the beginnings of this in '21. There's a frustration by voters in New Jersey on economic stuff, on crime issues, and I also think there's an underbelly in the stuff Trump tapped into culturally," Republican strategist Chris Russell told Politico.
QUICK HITS
- This Politico piece, full of Democratic strategists saying that the country is "not ready for a woman president," is pretty amusing; I am not sure "more identity politics!" is the takeaway given that Harris ran a weak, short campaign having ascended to the spot via nontraditional means, never getting the opportunity to make a pitch to her own party in the primaries (which should ideally be a proving ground for candidates).
- Relatedly: "If Trump was simply reliant on White resentment, he would have seen shrinking margins," writes Ethan Strauss. "Instead, in our increasingly multiethnic nation, his party sees gains all over. The oppressed vs. oppressor prism doesn't explain why Trump made big inroads into that bastion of White supremacy otherwise known as the Bronx. Or that MAGA Country we call Chicago. All around America, our major cities, while still blue, got redder."
- Honestly, yes.
There will be a lot of ink spilled about why Americans elected Trump and Republicans in a red wave but I can sum it up.
"He's not Hitler. I'm not racist. Fuck you."
— Bridget Phetasy (@BridgetPhetasy) November 6, 2024
- "In a healthier republic, we'd all be sitting on pins and needles to see the results in the Iowa 1st, the Pennsylvania 8th, the Virginia 7th, and so on," writes Reason's Eric Boehm. "Control of the House ought to be the biggest prize in any election cycle since Congress is constitutionally the most powerful branch of the federal government and the House is the portion of Congress most directly responsive to the people."
- lol:
Ooh, let me guess. Emotive longform pieces from Owen Jones complaining that American taxi drivers aren't reading enough Judith Butler? pic.twitter.com/F8zzzNlLGQ
— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) November 7, 2024
- Also:
Can't believe "Dick Cheney is brat" failed to resonate with voters.
— Ghost Maggie Serota (@maggieserota) November 6, 2024
- Good point:
Giving your money to a presidential campaign is almost as bad as giving it to Harvard. https://t.co/cD2GDxFnop
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2024
- Fair on all counts, but forgive me for not thinking (presumed) Trump pick RFK Jr. will do a great job here:
Here is what @RobertKennedyJr is right about & things everyone should support
1 FDA commish should not then work for Pfizer
2 Our system to detect safety signals is BAD & needs reform (has to be active/ not passive)
3 The food children eat in school is bad
4 Pharma controls FDA— Vinay Prasad MD MPH (@VPrasadMDMPH) November 6, 2024
