Trump Falsely Claims That 'Homicides Are Skyrocketing,' an Imaginary Trend He Blames on Kamala Harris

Trump's campaign dismisses recent crime data while glossing over the fact that he was president during the huge homicide spike in 2020.

"Homicides Are Skyrocketing in American Cities Under Kamala Harris," Donald Trump's campaign avers in a statement issued on Monday. Like Trump's assertion that "our crime rate is going up," this claim is completely at odds with reality.

According to FBI data, the homicide rate jumped by more than 27 percent in 2020, when Trump was president; rose slightly in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration; and fell by 7 percent in 2022. Preliminary FBI numbers show bigger drops in 2023 (about 13 percent) and this year (26 percent for the first quarter). So far this year, according to data from 277 cities, homicides are down by about 17 percent.

It obviously is not true, then, that "homicides are skyrocketing in American cities under Kamala Harris." The Trump campaign nevertheless takes issue with "a ridiculous story" in Axios "claiming that violent crime is falling under Kamala Harris," which it describes as "a lie."

Based on data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, Axios described "an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year." Axios "also found that the number of homicides in the 69 reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the [same] period last year."

The Trump campaign does not claim those numbers are wrong, as implied by the "lie" label. Instead it objects to the story's focus: "It may be true that in *some* cities, some categories of violent crime are lower for the first 6 months of 2024 than in 2023—but violent crime is still WAY UP compared to 2019 under President Trump. Axios can cherrypick all the crime data they like, but it won't change what Americans know: our communities are more dangerous under Kamala Harris."

Talk about cherry picking. It is true that the homicide rate, despite recent declines, remained higher in 2023 than it was in 2019. But the Council on Criminal Justice reports, based on data from 39 cities for the first half of this year, that "most violent crimes," including homicide, "are at or below levels seen in 2019." And the biggest spike in homicides, by far, happened in 2020. Remind me: Who was president then?

I am not suggesting that Trump can reasonably be blamed for the huge surge in homicides during the pandemic. Given all the other factors at work, and given that crime control is mainly a state and local function, it would be unrealistic to assume that any president has much influence on the murder rate.

Trump nevertheless wants us to believe that Harris, who as vice president had even less control over such things, is responsible for crime trends since January 2021. If so, Harris can claim credit for the recent dramatic reductions in homicide—a conclusion that Trump avoids only by pretending that they did not happen.

[This post has been updated with crime numbers from the Council on Criminal Justice for the first half of 2024.]

Comments

[sarcasmic]

Wait, I thought only Democrats lied?

[sarcasmic]

You're not good at this.

[Bertram Guilfoyle]

The symbiote has completely assumed your personality, man. There's no longer any difference.

[Minadin]

One's a grey box and the other isn't.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Accurate.

[Nobartium]

It's only mostly perfect.

Unlike the real drunk, he doesn't forget what he posted hours or even minutes ago.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

The symbiote needs to get blackout drunk every day to complete the performance.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

"...Like Trump's assertion that "our crime rate is going up," this claim is completely at odds with reality..."

"San Francisco Stores Board Up Amid Wave of Smash-and-Grab Lootings"
https://www.newsweek.com/san-francisco-stores-board-amid-wave-smash-grab-lootings-1655004
Maybe the TDS-addled steaming pile of lefty shit Sullum should be fact-checked.
FOAD, Sullum.

[Social Justice is neither]

But if SF refuses to report then as far as Sullum is concerned it doesn't exist. Now if only we knew what was happening with big blue cities and their compliance with crime reporting...

[BigT]

He said murders. Change “is” skyrocketing to “has” skyrocketed the past 4 years and Trump is perfectly correct.
Sullum is an ass.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

You forgot the “hole”

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

And likely takes it in the ass.

[Bruce D]

From the link you reference:

“Published Dec 01, 2021 at 1:15 PM EST
Updated Dec 01, 2021 at 3:16 PM EST”

That was almost 3 years ago during the effects of the virus scare.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

When was Biden inaugurated?

[Moonrocks]

It doesn't count if the government doesn't count it.

[charliehall]

Nice try, MAGA disinformationist. Facts are with the author.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/police-chief-data-shows-violent-crime-drops-in-oakland-san-francisco/ar-AA1oJtA9?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[VULGAR MADMAN]

It’s amazing what can happen when you just stop enforcing the law.

Creep.

[JoeB]

Even the lib Oaklanders complain that when the cops can't do anything, no one bothers reporting. Check any Next Door thread of Berkeley and Oakland. Also, crime has decreased on Hegenberger because businesses have closed and/or moved. Way to dig for the real story, Sullum.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Nope. Try again moron.

[JohnZ]

Really?? A report published a couple months ago, that contractors in Oakland refused to undertake street repairs due to the violence being committed against their crews.
Homeless populations have soared and even the Bay area
is being victimized by pirates.

[Nelson]

You think that "some random guy said" is data, not anecdote? Or do you believe that data is irrelevant? Or maybe that multiple data points don't count if they prove something you don't want to believe?

You probably believe the SF poop map is true, Kennedy was assassinated by the Mob, and the Moon landing was faked.

[Azathoth!!]

It is true that the homicide rate, despite recent declines, remains higher than it was in 2019.

That should have been the point at which you decided that this was a pointless article.

But you didn't.

The murder rate skyrocketed during the pandemic --in places where Democrat politicians took nigh dictatorial control over cities and states and failed miserably at keeping the people safe.

This cannot be laid at the feet of Donald Trump.

Because local policing IS NOT a federal duty.

And it has remained higher since.

Why?

Because people who demonize ALL policing are in control of so many cities and states.

That CAN be laid at the feet of Kamala Harris and the corpse Biden --because they offered support to those demonizing policing.

It is still not a federal duty --but Joe and Kamala personally supported the demonization.

Next.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

This cannot be laid at the feet of Donald Trump.

Because local policing IS NOT a federal duty.

Then recent increases in violent crime cannot be laid at the feet of Kamalama either.

[SezWhom]

Yes, it can. She was a prosecutor in CA, remember? Trump has never held statewide office.

Oh, but she's not a prosecutor now, right? She was directly involved in what the crime mess has become. Trump never was. It's worth wondering why the biggest crime problems are in the bluest states and cities.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Yes, it can. She was a prosecutor in CA, remember?

I said recent increases in violent crime.

And the argument is, most violent crime is a local law enforcement matter so federal politicians aren't generally responsible. If that argument holds for Trump, then it holds for Kamalamadingdong too .

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Let me guess. You think those criminal immigrants are still citizens elsewhere, so they’re not a local problem.

And the police departments which no longer report crime stats to the FBI, and the FBI which colludes by not asking for them, those are not local problems either.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

It is simple.

If the claim is, "federal officials are largely not responsible for violent crime, because violent crime is a matter to be dealt with by local law enforcement", then that claim works for both Trump and Kamalalama.

Get it?

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

You completely ignored his point. So as usual, when presented with facts that dispute The Narrative, you revert to being willfully obtuse.

[BigT]

Her Airheadedness supported defunding the police. Hence the blame.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Yes she did. She then changed her mind. Because she has no core convictions or principles, just like that other guy.

But, regardless of what Kamalalamala said or Trump said, neither one had much to do with violent crime since it is mostly a local law enforcement issue. At least that is the claim.

[Azathoth!!]

Do you just read parts of posts?

That CAN be laid at the feet of Kamala Harris and the corpse Biden –because they offered support to those demonizing policing.

It is still not a federal duty –but Joe and Kamala personally supported the demonization.

Does that help? Maybe it was too faint for you to see.

[charliehall]

Homicides in SF were 30% lower her last year as DA than the year before she became DA.

The 34x convicted felon should not be running on crime.

[Michael Ejercito]

What were these 34 felonies?

[JoeB]

Polly wanna cracker?

[XM]

She was DA around the 2010s, before the Floyd protests changed policing. Remember that back then, she was the Truancy enforcer.

What happened in SF since? That's right, things went so bad (to the point that the press were getting carjacked) that they recalled their prog DA. The Oakland mayor is on the verge of being recalled too.

Harris bailed out rioters and her VP let his cities burn. Your willingness to believe that those who cater to criminals will somehow get crime under control is as comical as thinking that Joe Biden was sharp as a attack.

[Pear Satirical (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

She helped bail those assholes out of jail while you were screaming about unmarked vans and bears in trunks!

[JoeB]

Democrats all. Their party, their cities, their fault.

[DesigNate]

“because they offered support to those demonizing policing.”

Maybe you missed this part for why they can be blamed.

[damikesc]

Did you read the REST of the post?

[sarcasmic]

Way to go Jesse Jr. Try reading a few more sentences after the one you quoted. You can do it.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Irony from the guy who brags about not reading anything that might disrupt his narrative. Lol.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Reading makes his head hurt.

[DesigNate]

You mean the sentence that cites a report of 39 cities? (A ridiculously small sample size for the US.)

Also, Color me skeptical of any reports on crime statistics when a lot of localities just stopped reporting crimes or stopped charging people.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

And don’t forget how the FBI changed their crime statistic criteria in 2021. Jeffy and Sarc will ignore that too. Can’t have uncomfortable facts disputing The Narrative.

[Mike Parsons]

"The murder rate skyrocketed during the pandemic –in places where Democrat politicians took nigh dictatorial control over cities and states and failed miserably at keeping the people safe."

^^^ came here for this.

Just as they cherry pick data for global warming, the recent crime cherry picking has been crazy.

We had a massive dystopian event basically engineered in democrat cities to create the conditions for massive crime, looting, and violence. It was a *hopefully* once in a lifetime stars align situation, and we saw record murder and mayhem for a couple years.

So to, a fucking year or two after, look at the numbers and go "hey look! crimes down!", without comparing to, I dunno, maybe 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, you know, the actual historic trend, is the about the most disingenuous bullshit I could imagine. And it of course is the spin we are getting from all MSM outlets to let us know that everything, in fact, is absolutely fine under Biden/Harris.

Crime is up. How could we know? Well aside from taking out the massive spike and looking at the data, we could also just scroll the internet for about 5 seconds to see video from any of our awesome dystopian democrat run cities, where you get anything from massive mobs of people running through a store destroying or stealing everything in sight, to a fat black woman casually strolling through a store loading her bag with louis vuitton items, walking by the white lady at the desk telling her to stop what she's doing, stiff arm her, and walk out of the store like she just claimed her family's birthright.

Dont believe you lying eyes though, good citizen, everything is just fine, we promise. Everything else is disinformation (TM)

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Youtube anecdotes >>> statistics and data

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Pedo Jeffy lies >>> facts

[VinniUSMC (Banana Republic Day 5/30/24)]

Many anecdotes equals data.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

When are you all going to point to, you know, actual DATA to bolster your point? This is the problem. You want to claim “no, the statistics are wrong, crime is actually way up” but you don’t have anything but excuses and paranoid theories to back up your claims. While, on the other hand, Sullum and rational people have DATA and FACTS to back up their claims.

“But but but the crimes aren’t reported so they aren’t represented in the statistics!” Well then, if true, present an estimate based on a well-grounded model. “But but but the FBI lies and I don’t like them and they are doodyheads.” Well then SHOW that they are lying by providing EVIDENCE that they are lying IN THIS CASE.

You can’t do any of that, all you have is a bunch of excuses and anecdotes. Sorry, that does not cut the mustard.

What you are really asking, is that we all adopt your narrative as fact, based on blind faith and hatred of that team. That is why I mock you as being a bunch of post-modernist losers. You cannot even remotely show how your position corresponds to objective reality, so you instead create your own reality and try to shame everyone else in joining you in your little socially constructed bubble.

[DesigNate]

It’s hard to point to data that isn’t being collected or reported….

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

You bet me to it.

[Azathoth!!]

No, no, no--

It’s hard to point to data that is deliberately NOT being collected or reported….

There. It needed that point.

[Quicktown Brix]

“The murder rate skyrocketed during the pandemic –in places where Democrat politicians took nigh dictatorial control over cities and states and failed miserably at keeping the people safe.”

This is true, but what it doesn't explain is why...

"Relative to 2019, the number of murders jumped by more than 30 percent in the largest cities and by 20 percent in places designated by the FBI as “suburban” — cities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants that are within a Metropolitan Statistical Area. Murders rose by comparable levels in rural areas too — an important fact that is only now beginning to receive press attention.

Despite politicized claims that this rise was the result of criminal justice reform in liberal-leaning jurisdictions, murders rose roughly equally in cities run by Republicans and cities run by Democrats. So-called red states actually saw some of the highest murder rates of all.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime?ms=gad_violent%20crime%20statistics_617000456634_8626214133_143843260761

[Azathoth!!]

Oh, that's simple.

Because they're lying.

They will call it 'red' when talking about a blue city in a red state or say a city is 'run' by a Republican when there's a Republican mayor and a solid Dem city council.

They lie.

[Quicktown Brix]

Oh, that’s simple...Because they’re lying.

It's a simple explanation that becomes extremely complicated when you consider the many people that need to be involved in the lying conspiracy.

[Nelson]

So if a Democrat is anywhere nearby, they're responsible?

Rural, urban, suburban crime? Democrats.

Red, blue, and purple state crime? Democrats.

States with Republican Executive, Legislative, and Judicial majorities? Democrats.

Decreasing crime in all-blue states? Fake data! Decreasing crime in all-red states? Republicans!

Lower crime rates by illegal immigrants? Lies! Higher crime rates by citizens? Lies! Majority of drugs don't come over the border? Lies! Border wall doesn't stop illegal entry? Lies! Majority of illegals enter legally and then don't leave? Lies!

Do you actually believe that bullshit or is it performative? Or are you just so indoctrinated that common sense and clear data no longer penetrate your brain if it doesn't conclude "Republicans are always right, Democrats are always wrong"?

[John Rohan]

More specifically, it skyrocketed right after the death of George Floyd, and the start of the BLM riots + defund the police movements, two things that Trump was not involved with.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

It is true that violent crime skyrocketed under Kamala Harris. This is because reality is socially constructed, and that is the reality that has been constructed by right-wing media and Facebook anecdotes.

It is also true that violent crime has fallen under Kamala Harris. This is from the “statistics” generated by “police” using “data” and “numbers”.

So it is simultaneously true, and not true, that violent crime has increased under Kamala Harris, and it is simultaneously true, and not true, that violent crime has decreased under Kamala Harris. This is the post-modern socially constructed reality that we live in.

[Freethinksman]

Something actually *being true* is not the same as something *feeling true*. The "post-modern socially constructed reality that we live in" might *feel* like reality. But it isn't reality. It is not bound by anything but imagination, and that's a pretty shitty way to delineate fact from fiction.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

The “post-modern socially constructed reality that we live in” might *feel* like reality. But it isn’t reality.

You and I both agree on this point, but then again we are both old-timers who believe in this quaint notion of "objective reality".

But just read below where you have real people trying to ignore the data and instead substitute public opinion as a reliable substitute.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Yeah, just tell the victims of crime that they imagined it.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

No Fatfuck, you believe in leftist narratives and democrat propaganda.

Now GTFO.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

No, you lie. What was that number, something like 23% of the population lives in crime-ridden cities which stopped reporting to the FBI because the data was so embarrassing?

Lies, damned lies, statistics and JeffyLies.

[Pear Satirical (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

And a lot of people have stopped reporting crime since it doesn't happen.

[Pear Satirical (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

"Nothing happens"

[chemjeff radical individualist]

What was that number, something like 23% of the population lives in crime-ridden cities which stopped reporting to the FBI because the data was so embarrassing?

Do you have a citation for this claim?

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Here’s one…..

https://kansasreflector.com/2023/10/29/politicians-love-to-cite-crime-data-its-often-wrong/

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

And another…..

https://www.nssf.org/articles/america-has-a-crime-reporting-problem/

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Need more?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbis-data-is-faulty-as-crime-proliferates-in-big-cities-report

[Overt]

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs

[charliehall]

"It is true that violent crime skyrocketed under Kamala Harris"

No it isn't. Homicides in SF were 30% lower her last year as DA than the year before she became DA.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Well, that is just *your* socially constructed reality. The best part about post-modernism is that we all are entitled to our own realities.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Yes, that’s what your kind does.

[XM]

Sigh, when was the last time she was the DA of SF? Many years before the Floyd protests.

She was attorney general and a senator of the entire state when things started to wrong. She and Newsom are among the architects of the state's gradual decline. The democrats own at least the shoplifting crisis of the state, which is still at critical level and leading to mass closures in several blue spots.

Stop trying to gaslight people. Just stop. Most of the crime problems in this country is owned by the left. YOU people are the problem. The bay area recalled Boudin and now they're on track to recall Thao of Oakland.

[Nelson]

What do the Floyd protests have to do with anything? I know conservatives believe that it was some sort of dystopian hellscape, but that just isn't true.

"are among the architects of the state’s gradual decline."

You mean the decline that shows the economic activity, quality of life, income levels, business activity, education level, and pretty much every indicator of success in California is better than almost every single red state?

You'd rather live and work in Kansas or Idaho or Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia? If so, you are a fool who wants to be worse off and have worse prospects for your children than in California. Because California is a vibrant cultural and economic powerhouse that outproduces most countries in the world and those red states are poverty-riddled parasites that would collapse without the financial support of California.

[John Rohan]

The Floyd protests matter, because the date of his death is when homicides skyrocketed, at the end of May 2020.

https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22137087/homicide.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100

[Nelson]

Yes, and then they didn't go down when the protests stopped.

That's called coincidence. One had nothing to do with the other. If it did, then they would have gone down when the protests ended.

Logic and reason aren't your strong suits.

[David Perry]

That would presume (wrongly) that the link between the Floyd riots (of love) and the higher murder rate were directly due to the riots. Do you think the incidence of higher murders were actually in the riots themselves?

Or maybe, just maybe, the increased murder (and general crime) rates increased with the riots (or love) and continued due to police taking steps back, lowering their personal risk after realizing how in so many neighborhoods they were being demonized and blamed? And only after some years of this increased murder and crime has some of the anti-police rhetoric (and defunding efforts) coming from the left has diminished, thereby leading to a lowering of crime rates (or at least reported crime)?

[XM]

"It is also true that violent crime has fallen under Kamala Harris. This is from the “statistics” generated by “police” using “data” and “numbers”."

Which is incomplete, because there's no uniform reporting criteria on gathering or reporting crimes for cities. And the notion that the police can track of gazillions of migrants and homeless roaming around town is wishful thinking at best.

Why DID crime skyrocket? It's not because of Kamala Harris, but the lefty policy of appeasement that she now supports. The unintended consequences of "restorative justice", DEI fetish, and the unwillingness to prog DAs to prosecute crimes were entirely predictable.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

Sullum lies.

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

Of course Fatass Donnie is lying.

But the important thing is that it COULD be true because the low-info flyover hicks want to believe it. Donnie is just playing to his base.

Verdict: It is true if you want to believe it.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Of course Fatass Donnie is lying.

But he’s not lying. In HIS reality, he is telling the truth. Your problem, is that you haven’t yet adopted this reality. Once you do that, then you will see that he is telling the truth. In fact, in Trump’s reality, he is always telling the truth. It’s pretty wild, isn’t it?

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

It's like a 'Calvin and Hobbes' cartoon.

[sarcasmic]

More like 'The Far Side'.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Your throuple is doing very well.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the ass-wipe of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a lying pile of lefty shit.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

So Shrike, how many of your child rapes go unreported?

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the ass-clown of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a lying pile of lefty shit.

[charliehall]

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. His heart sank as he thought of the enormous power arrayed against him, the ease with which any Party intellectual would overthrow him in debate, the subtle arguments which he would not be able to understand, much less answer."

Substitute "Trump" for "party" and you have what is happening today in the US. Especially on this comment field.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

You and your fellow travelers are awfully arrogant for a bunch of subnormal Marxist morons. You’re even stupid enough to push this country into a civil war where you and all your soyboy beta male buddies will surely be brutally slaughtered.

[sarcasmic]

Is this one of those times where Trump's lies don't matter because you're not supposed to listen to what he says, where his lies don't matter because the numbers feel wrong, where his lies don't matter because pointing them out equals defending Harris, where his lies don't matter because Democrats did it first, where his lies don't matter because Harris is a Democrat, or all of the above?

I can't tell.

[SQRLSY]

We broad-minded and tolerant people can forgive you for your confusion...

If ONLY we had listened to the people who are MUCH wiser than we fools are... We would have HUNG MIKE PENCE in an orgy of political violence, and then all things would be MUCH simpler, and ALL would be just SWELL AND DANDY!!! It ONLY we'd have listened to the TrumptatorShit!!!

Trump agrees with “Hang Mike Pence!”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/25/politics/donald-trump-january-6-mike-pence-chants/index.html
Trump reacted with approval to ‘hang Mike Pence’ chants from rioters on January 6

[Michael Ejercito]

The anti-gun cult also says crime is skyrocketing.

[sarcasmic]

They say certain types of crimes are skyrocketing, specifically mass shooting. They are also lying. And that makes what Trump said ok, because they did it first.

[Freethinksman]

I honestly can't tell if this is a parody of people for honestly believe that whataboutism works like a reverse Uno card.

[sarcasmic]

Jesse entered the comments. He’s the king of what I’m mocking. It’s ok because Democrats did it first. You’re a hypocrite so that makes you wrong. You criticized Trump and that equals defending Harris. In my opinion, calling someone a Jesse in these comments is the worst insult possible.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

I honestly don't think Jesse gives a shit about being right or wrong. He just wants to be an ass and a jerk to the people that he hates. So he will make incoherent hypocritical nonsensical arguments, if it means "pwning the libs", or the people whom he assigns to be "libs". That is why he sounds so stupid all the time. Jesse is a perfect microcosm of modern Team Red, guided by only two 'principles':

1. Support Trump
2. "Pwn the Libs"

[sarcasmic]

I don't think he deserves that much thought.

[VinniUSMC (Banana Republic Day 5/30/24)]

The sarcjeff circle jerk. Always good for a laugh. We're laughing at you, not with you.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

I thought you said the sock above was bad at this. But how are your responses any different?

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

I believe they say that mass shootings are skyrocketing.

Which is probably not true at all. But I don't care enough to look it up.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the TDS-addled ass-clown of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a lying pile of lefty shit.

[Rick James]

Trump’s campaign dismisses recent crime data while glossing over the fact that he was president during the huge homicide spike in 2020.

Yes, and that homicide spike coincides EXACTLY with the George Floyd riots in which everyone, including Reason went into the national #DefundThePolice mass psychosis.

[mad.casual]

+1

What's demonstrated in that data is so astoundingly clear relative to the "With all the muddled reporting we don't know what's true, but we know Trump is wrong." from Reason that it's very much like the Hunter Biden laptop, where they just refuse to talk about it.

[Nelson]

"that homicide spike coincides EXACTLY with the George Floyd riots in which everyone, including Reason went into the national #DefundThePolice mass psychosis."

Let me explain the difference between coincidence (when two unrelated things happen at the same time) and causation.

If the crime rate spikes when protests are happening, but doesn't plummet when they stop, that means the protests didn't cause the spike.

It's a simple analysis, unless you were educated in a state the taught about the "War of Northern Aggression".

[John Rohan]

Let me explain faulty logic to you. You are coming to a conclusion not supported by evidence. There are some hard questions that should be answered first.

1. You think the “defund the police” movement, lower morale among police, and the large numbers quitting just ended the day the riots ended?

2. Why didn’t other nations see the same dramatic rise in homicides at that time?

3. It’s just a total coincidence that homicides took off like a rocket immediately after Floyd died and the riots took over?
https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22137087/homicide.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100

[Nelson]

"You think the “defund the police” movement, lower morale among police, and the large numbers quitting just ended the day the riots ended?"

None of those things cause more murders. They may cause fewer murders to get solved, but they have exactly nothing to do with how many people choose to kill someone else.

"Why didn’t other nations see the same dramatic rise in homicides at that time?"

I don't know, and neither do you. If you start from the position that the protests were relevant to murder rates and don't care about evidence to support your belief, you would say something stupid like "The Floyd protests caused a spike in murders". If you had the tiniest bit of honesty or skepticism, you would know that two things happening at the same time doesn't mean anything without evidence that one influenced the other.

"It’s just a total coincidence that homicides took off like a rocket immediately after Floyd died and the riots took over?"

Yes. Because when the thing you claim caused more murders stopped happening, the murder rate didn't suddenly drop.

Your logic is as faulty as it gets. Can you show me some evidence that murders rose in the states that had protests and not in others? No. Can you show me that murders jumped near protests, but remained steady away from them? No. Can you connect in any way, other than time, the two events? No. That's called a coincidence, when two unrelated things happen at the same time.

[SezWhom]

Why does this article exist?

[chemjeff radical individualist]

I know, right? Instead we need more articles discussing Tim Walz's fascination with tampons.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Most of us are far more concerned about his Marxism, related allegiance to Red China, and his other extremist beliefs. Although I’m sure that’s what you like about him as your fellow traveler.

[mad.casual]

Given the serial categorical errors, logic fails, and oxymorons it's pretty clearly a "reluctant and strategic" defense of Kammy 3 mos. out from the election.

[sarcasmic]

Trump is his own worst enemy right now. After he skunked Biden in that debate the election was his to lose. Harris has never been popular and really doesn't say much of anything of substance. The only thing going for her is that she's not Trump. But Trump's lies and personal attacks don't make her look worse to anyone except those who were already going to vote for him. What they are doing is alienating the truly undecided. He needs to shut his pie hole for a while and stop shooting himself in the foot.

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

Agree 100%.

She is using Ali's Rope-A-Dope strategy.

Which plays to her strength - doing nothing.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the TDS-addled ass-wipe of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a lying pile of lefty shit.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

According to the "normie news" this is a deliberate strategy by Team Kamalamadingdong to provoke Trump into saying stupid shit. So she hits him where it hurts his ego the most - crowd size, and taunting him about how her crowds are bigger than his crowds (whether true or not). Sure enough, Trump reflexively takes the bait and goes on unhinged rants.

I'm not convinced that this is a deliberate strategy of provocation, or that Trump just has no self-discipline and, much like our trolls around here, just says stupid shit out of habit.

[sarcasmic]

I think that gives her too much credit. If anything she's just giving him rope.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Yeah me too. I don't think they are that smart.

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

Kammy hired David Plouffe to run her campaign. He is the best in the world.

She is now a solid favorite among bettors. 58-44

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

#DonnieAngry

I will take great satisfaction if Donnie loses again.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

It really is a brilliant strategy to hide her from the press.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the ass-clown of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a TDS-addled lying pile of lefty shit.

[VinniUSMC (Banana Republic Day 5/30/24)]

It's not like the media went full on "Queen Kamala" since the coronation. Bunch of lying scum. Must be why sarcjeff likes Team Blue so much.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Sixty-three percent of Americans describe the crime problem in the U.S. as either extremely or very serious, up from 54% when last measured in 2021 and the highest in Gallup’s trend. The prior high of 60% was recorded in the initial 2000 reading, as well as in 2010 and 2016.

Meanwhile, far fewer, 17%, say the crime problem in their local area is extremely or very serious, but this is also up from 2021 and the highest in the trend by one point over 2014’s 16%. - Gallup

As usual, The Party lies. As such, this is one of those cases when polling is much more reliable than - the intentionally under-reported and manipulated - crime stats. Same goes for the economy: people telling us that they can no longer afford groceries is much more pertinent than the government saying to the people that they, in fact, can afford groceries. So whom should we believe? The public... or the state? Not much of a head-scratcher for actual libertarians.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

That’s right. The people’s socially constructed reality is more important than the objective reality produced by so-called “facts” and “data”.

So whom should we believe? The public… or the state?

How about, "the truth"?

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

The truth is that the data is incomplete.
The truth is that the data is manipulated.
The truth is that you are a lying leftoid shill.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

The truth is, you and your pals are reasoning backwards. You WANT there to be this huge crime wave that you can blame Democrats on because they are in charge, and are now trying to find whatever rationalization is convincing enough to fit that goal.

The truth is that the data is incomplete.

Yes the data is incomplete, but that doesn't mean we just get to impute whatever meaning we feel like into the data. The crime rates that we have are the best estimates given the limitations of the data. Did the homicide rate really fall by *exactly* 7.00000% in 2022? Probably not. It might be 6% or 8% in actuality.

The truth is that the data is manipulated.

Not even Trump is claiming that the data is 'manipulated'. How is it manipulated?

The truth is that you are a lying leftoid shill.

Confession via projection. You are the one completely comfortable lying on behalf of your team.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

The truth is, you and your sockpuppets (and Sullum, and the rest of The Party apparatchiks) are lying.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

lol

next time, try bringing actual data to a statistics fight

[DesigNate]

How is anyone supposed to bring data when it’s incomplete (if it’s gathered at all)?

[Overt]

Let's note that Chemjeff is certain that this is all right wing delusions, told to the silly red staters by right wing media.

Right wing media like The Guardian, who notes in this article that experts warn that the FBI's switch to a new reporting system has caused chaos in reporting.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/fbi-data-shows-us-crime-plummeted-2023

Let's note the key quote from those evil right wingers:

"However, the statistics are based on figures collected from only 79% of law enforcement agencies in the US. Experts have previously warned that data can be “patchy” given inconsistency in reporting by the local agencies who supply the numbers. And the new stats are unaudited as the FBI is not scheduled to release its official figures and analysis concerning crime in 2023 until this upcoming October."

Let's get more arrogant sneering from Chemjeff.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Amd Pedo Jeffy is the last person who should fell confident or self assured in any way. If anything he should be writing out a novel sized apology as part of his suicide note.

[Bruce D]

“Sixty-three percent of Americans describe the crime problem in the U.S. as either extremely or very serious, up from 54%…”

“Americans describe”. Have they objectively recorded instances or is it their subjective impression, possibly formed by listening to too much media or pundits?

If it bleeds, it leads.

[Overt]

This reminds me of when Reason's resident intern in Washington DC used an article from the New York Times to tell San Franciscans that "Ackshewally, crime isn't really that bad in SF, and these people are silly to recall Boudin."

https://reason.com/2022/06/08/san-francisco-recalls-progressive-district-attorney-chesa-boudin/?comments=true#comments

At a certain point people figure out that this is bullshit gaslighting and they just have to laugh.

[John Rohan]

That's crime overall, not just murders.

[Dillinger]

crime stats as proof, bro?

[sarcasmic]

You’re going to attack the data because you don’t like what it says? Sure the data is incomplete. But incomplete data still shows trends. Even unreported outliers don’t negate a general trend. C’mon. Don’t be a Jesse.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

Crime is a huge topic in elections this November, and the FBI has now entered the chat. It has just released the Crime in the Nation report for 2021. But the bureau switched the way it collects crime data this year, and many police departments did not get on board. Los Angeles and New York City did not report to the FBI. In fact, only 63% of the country's police departments submitted anything, and some of the data that was submitted was incomplete. Weihua Li of The Marshall Project has been poring over the FBI's findings. Hey there. - NPR, October 5, 2022

sarc loves The Party. sarc trusts The State. sarc believes in everything The Government decrees. sarc admires all the unelected bureaucrats, sarc is in love with all the unconstitutional and unaccountable Agencies. but above all else, sarc absolutely adores The FBI.

[sarcasmic]

It's ok that you don't know anything about statistics, but you don't need to brag about it.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

LI: Yeah. Yeah, that's a really good question. And it's something that criminologists and people who work in criminal justice have been very worried about for a while now. So the FBI is used to receiving data from more than 90% of police departments across the country. But like you said earlier, in 2021, because they changed their data collection method, the number have dropped to roughly 60%. So instead of saying a finite number, you know, X number of crimes took place, they're saying we think the range of crime that took place in 2021 is somewhere between Y and Z. So for violent crime, property crime and homicides, the number of crimes could have gone up, gone down or stayed the same. We really don't know.

Poor sarc...

[sarcasmic]

The person in the quoted conversation doesn’t know anything about statistics either. So what?

Do you know how many people out of 320,000,000 Americans need to be polled to get a statistically significant sample size? 3000. That’s it. So I think with 62% of departments reporting we can reasonably observe trends throughout the entire country.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted October 2-23, 2023, with a random sample of 1,009 adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. - Gallup

Results from two online sample size calculators (calculator dot net, questionpro dot com) using the above input data disclosed by Gallup's methodology are: 601 and... 601.

TrUsT tHe ScIeNcE!

[sarcasmic]

You’re not going to understand statistics off a couple google searches.

And trying to mock me by implying I defend climate "science" is a nonstarter. Not even Jesse could find a single comment where I've defended that. It's politics, not science. Science use the scientific method. Hypothesis, experiment, etc. Climate "science" uses the political method. They vote.

So you won't get much mileage with that strawman.

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

Poor sarc...

[sarcasmic]

Smells like a Big Mac or Dlam sock trying to get my attention. Well you succeeded. On mute you go. And thanks once again for curing me of caring what idiots think about me. It's been a positive change in my life.

[Dillinger]

>>You’re going to attack the data because you don’t like what it says?

I asked my new assistant to make an excel sheet for me. he says "_____ program does that for you". I say "yes, provided any of the 17 people who already touched the file inputted proper data, let's see how you do with data input."

[sarcasmic]

We're talking statistics here. I found the class to be difficult because it was very counterintuitive. Like how you don't need a complete data set to draw conclusions.

[Dillinger]

I'm sorry you failed stats but regardless Sullum is absolutely cherry picking for his Trump-Hate Pie

[sarcasmic]

So instead of attacking the numbers you attack me and the author?

Dude. Please. Stop being a Jesse.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Dude, stop posting here. You just waste time and embarrass yourself. Or better yet, just die.

[Dillinger]

neither was an attack.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

When the missing data comes from the most crime-ridden cities, that tells most people something. All you hear is ... crickets.

[Nobartium]

Crime rates are meaningless without acknowledging that cities are defining down crimes.

[sarcasmic]

How have they defined-down homicide?

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7691936/

[chemjeff radical individualist]

First, this is a peer-reviewed article. I thought peer review was bullshit pushed by Marxist professors and their woke agenda, or somesuch. Isn't that what your team is always carrying on about? But now we are supposed to accept at face value the "research" from Marxist woke professors? Really?

Second, this article (if we are to believe it at all!) is about coroners who sometimes miscategorize suicides as homicides, and vice-versa. Yup, guess what, the data isn't perfect! Stuff like this happens! This article gives no estimates as to how prevalent this problem is or how flawed the crime statistics are due to misattribution of cause of death as homicide vs. suicide.

Third, this isn't about some organized effort to reclassify homicides as suicides in order to manipulate statistics. That was the original claim. This is about erroneous classification of cause of death.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

More bullshit obfuscation from Pedo Jeffy.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4985110/

[chemjeff radical individualist]

First: so-called "peer reviewed research" from Marxist woke professors. Problem.

Second: this article is from 2016. Old news.

Third: this article is about utilizing a type of system for reporting the cause of death for violent deaths, especially as they pertain to shootings from police officers. We have literally zero idea if the statistics that we are talking about in this article have anything to do with this issue.

You are just trying to flood the zone with bullshit, as usual

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

Goldman Sachs says voters are shifting to Kamala Harris—and the odds of a blue wave are swelling

I know you Peanuts have a weird thing about "the Joos" but Goldman are usually the smartest guys in town.

https://fortune.com/2024/08/13/goldman-sachs-kamala-harris-beating-donald-trump-polls-democrats-republicans-blue-wave/

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd, the ass-wip of the commentariat, lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a TDS-addled lying pile of lefty shit.

[JesseAz (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

The TDS crew was anxious to take over this thread lol. God damn. Was like reading reddit or wapo.

It is higher than 2019. Fact. The loose soros style DA policies have increased crime. Fact. Parsing crime to just murders is not a valuable argument. Property crimes are in fact up, see costs to insurers and shop lifting costs. FBI statistics are still bad due to reporting, see prior Reason admittance to it. Look at record 911 hold times occurring in most cities.

Not reporting a crime doesn't mean there isnt crime.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

It is higher than 2019. Fact.

This is correct, based on Jesse's socially constructed reality. It is a "fact" in his world.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Translation: you’ve got nothing.

[Sarah Palin's Buttplug - Jan 6 = 9/11 (same motive)]

The TDS crew was anxious to take over this thread

Reason staffers sent me an alert.

[sarcasmic]

The left me out again? Aw dang!

[chemjeff radical individualist]

I thought the "smoke signals emanating from a marijuana bonfire in the shape of Mexicans having ass sex" was a nice touch for their alert.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

turd lies; it’s all he ever does. turd is a kiddie diddler, and a pathological liar, entirely too stupid to remember which lies he posted even minutes ago, and also too stupid to understand we all know he’s a liar.
If anything he posts isn’t a lie, it’s totally accidental.
turd lies; it’s what he does. turd is a lying pile of lefty shit.

[Nelson]

"It is higher than 2019"

And lower than 2020. What point are you trying to make? Because you're failing.

[Leftshot]

Shoddy work like this is beneath what I expect from a publication named Reason.

If your staff would do a little digging they’d discover that many large cities have not reported their crime statistics in the last couple of years.

Additionally, as has been widely reported, many big cities, and in a few cases counties and states, have stopped arresting people for many crimes and/or have ended up charging and convicting people for far less than the crimes committed. In fact, less than 3 percent of felony arrests go to trial today. The vast majority end up being settled through plea bargaining.

Are you really that unaware of what is going on?

[Nobartium]

There are 3 secular religions that Reason (along with their supporters) accept:

Worship of experts

Worship of cities

Worship of selves

Crime devaluation violates the second directly, and the first indirectly.

[python33]

Sullum blaming Trump for scamdemic/BLM murder rate is falling off the left edge of the flat earth ass clown nonsense, and he knows it. But he has to appease his irrational rabid Trump haters.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

Fiction:

Sullum blaming Trump for scamdemic/BLM murder rate

Reality from Sullum:

I am not suggesting that Trump can reasonably be blamed for the huge surge in homicides during the pandemic.

[sarcasmic]

It appears that for Trump's Deranged Supporters, upon seeing him criticized, this derangement kicks in where they see words that aren't there, hear voices, see visions, and otherwise attack their imagination, never realizing that it's not real.

[DesigNate]

“And the biggest spike in homicides, by far, happened in 2020. Remind me: Who was president then?

I am not suggesting that Trump can reasonably be blamed for the huge surge in homicides during the pandemic.”

That’s exactly what he was doing with that snarky quip.

[RickAbrams]

These types of statements are the product of Trump’s two personality disorders. Trump’s has such a grandiose sense of entitlement that he believes that whatever he says is true. He also must be dramatic so he uses hyperbole as fact and most times, something he the worst ever or if he did it, the best ever. That due to his mental illness. He is not making calculated statements; they flow from his disorders.

https://bit.ly/3YHmqLB August 12, 2024, CityWatch, Trump’s Inability to Comprehend Centrists Will Cost Him the Election, by Richard Lee Abrams

[Terry Anne Lieber (Don't Feed Tony)]

Poor sarc... must be on his imaginary period today.

[python33]

Actual facts:

Reality from Sullum:

"glossing over the fact that he was president during the huge homicide spike in 2020."

You walked right into this didn't you.

[Social Justice is neither]

Yes, the BLM riot homicide spike was on his watch and worst in places that people pushing the policies of Tim Walz and Kamala Harris were in charge of. The fact that Pelisi and her lackeys were threatening impeachment over every last use of Presidential authority didn't help and the incompetence/malice from the blue mayors and governors with actual responsibility certainly made it worse.

[CE]

Give everyone cash, tell them they can't go to work, tell them they are entitled to reparations for something someone did to someone else 160 years ago, let violent criminals out early to ease overcrowding in jails, and stop prosecuting minor crimes, and then wonder why the crime rate went up....

[Nelson]

"the BLM riot homicide spike"

You mean the spike that has absolutely no evidence to connect it to the protests? The right-wing fever dream that doesn't even mistake correlation to causation, but mistakes coincidence for causation?

[StevenF]

Jacob Sullum GROSSLY mischaracterizes Trump's statement AND actual crime statistics.

[CE]

Maybe he meant in Washington DC?
The murder rate there is the highest in 25 years.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13738949/metropolis-America-desirable-place-live-country.html

DC has become notorious for squalor and crime, with 274 murders in 2023 - the highest number since 1997.

[CE]

Detroit and Baltimore duking it out for the highest murder rate overall. Two more paragons of Democrat governance.

Baltimore, which was ranked seventh on the undesirable list, leads the US in murders and robberies per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile Detroit ranks first for rape and second for murder and aggravated assault.

[AT]

The Axios numbers have already been brutally fact-checked. Like, tied to a chair and beaten with brass-knuckles.

The FBI tried this same gaslighting nonsense, and even the left-wing media was calling bogus on it.

https://www.newsweek.com/fbi-crime-data-violence-biden-trump-1911383

The underlying issues are multiple, Lott said. There are fewer experienced officers on the streets, fewer police reports are being made, crime victims are not going down to the station to fill out forms, and — perhaps most significantly — certain reporting standards have changed. For instance, if a felony assault was pleaded down to a misdemeanor in court, it would not be included in the FBI's data.

Amazing how easy it is to spin the numbers favorably when you just brazenly ignore anything inconvenient to the conclusion you're trying to reach.

A December 2023 Gallup poll found 63% of respondents described crime as an extreme problem, up from 54% two years prior. More than three-quarters of Americans, 77%, said there was more crime in the U.S. in 2023 compared to a year prior. A majority, 55%, said the same about crime in their area.

But screw them, right Reason? Let's hear it. Let me here you say it to everyone:

"Don't believe your lying eyes."

Say it Jake. Say it you dishonest, lying, manipulative, fake news, piece of shit hack.

And the biggest spike in homicides, by far, happened in 2020. Remind me: Who was president then?

GEE REMIND ME, WHAT ELSE ALSO HAPPENED IN 2020 THAT DIRECTLY RESULTED IN A SPIKE OF CRIME.

You are human garbage, Jake. Put on the nose. Put it on, you Clown World hack.

[chemjeff radical individualist]

A December 2023 Gallup poll found 63% of respondents described crime as an extreme problem, up from 54% two years prior. More than three-quarters of Americans, 77%, said there was more crime in the U.S. in 2023 compared to a year prior. A majority, 55%, said the same about crime in their area.

Man, it's like you all are reading from the same script. Did you get the same talking points from Trump HQ?

But I understand. In general, crime and "law and order" is a winning issue for Republicans, as long as they can scare the public into believing that crime is worse than it really is. So pushing a narrative of out-of-control crime is to help Republicans win, even if it is false. And - let's be honest here - given the choice between the truth, and a Trump victory, you'll take the latter every time. So you and your team have to push lies and falsehoods in order to drag your candidate over the finish line. The truth about crime rates is completely irrelevant. What is most important is your team winning.

[AT]

I linked to the article, doofus. And Newsweek is hardly a Trump-friendly MAGA blog.

[DesigNate]

No no, you see if two people say the same thing in their arguments against Reason, it’s obviously because they’re getting talking points from Trump HQ and not possibly because of the way google’s algorithm works or the fact that they have functioning brains.

But don’t you dare accuse anyone of being a DNC shill.

[XM]

"In general, crime and “law and order” is a winning issue for Republicans, as long as they can scare the public into believing that crime is worse than it really is."

Yes, retail spots like Walgreens are closing for no apparent reason. The employee of the 99 cent store who told local tv reporter that she often saw a dozen retail theft every single day just made shit up. The Latino immigrants and black single moms who tell ABC that they don't feel safe in their neighborhoods or at the LA Metro are all lying or hoodwinked by the GOP.

You must live in a WHITE side of town, or something. Where I live, I was carjacked within 6 months of the pandemic. The thief took off with the catalytic converter. Then someone took off one from my sister's car like a month later. Replacing them was not an happy occasion for us. "It's just anecdotal" Oh except catalytic converter theft is a real thing.

We bust human trafficking rings and terrorist plots every other week. Did you know that the drug cartel grow their own supply in nor cal? Let's say homicide is down - people are still uneasy about how their government burned people alive by blocking the only road out of town, being beaten by sloped roof, allowing someone like Robert Card to serve in the NG and obtain guns, letting in thousands of unverified people including a few on the terror list.... etc.

[Jerry B.]

“It obviously is not true, then, that "homicides are skyrocketing in American cities under Kamala Harris."”

It still could be. Trump specifies “cities”. First you have to define what a “city” is, and then check homicide rates only in places that meet that definition. Homicide rates might go down in Montana, but go up in Chicago.

[AT]

It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is.

[ravenshrike]

Ignoring the fact that if a crime is not reported, or discovered, or is ‘massaged’ by the local potentates it won't show up on reported statistics, all crime data not broken down by county is virtually worthless anyway.

[JFree]

I am not suggesting that Trump can reasonably be blamed for the huge surge in homicides during the pandemic.

Why not? He could well be singlehandedly responsible for all of them. Or at least most of them. He could very easily have tweeted from the various crime scenes. He's got a permanent getaway vehicle. Access to the entire arsenal of all weapons in the US. That's means and opportunity. The motive could be a bit difficult to prove but there's plenty of evidence that he really doesn't like most people, is a manipulative sociopath, and would prefer to see them dead.

[Don't look at me!]

That’s some clear headed thinking right there. Go on.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

JFucked again shows his lack of contact with reality.
FOAD, asshole.

[JohnZ]

Put down the crack pipe...... and the box wine.

[Sevo, 5-30-24, embarrassment]

Hey, Walsh? Perhaps Reason should use the pathetic amount you and your assholic TDS-addled writers (Sullum, are you reading?) are now getting from me to pay for a reliable server.
But that would mean you’d have to pass on a cocktail party or two, right, asshole?

[Scotterbee]

Imagine all the clutter that would be removed from these comment sections of you just necked yourself. Better yet, get a fucking life and stop trying to dominate internet forums with multiple handles, you lonely piece of shit.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

Imagine how much better America would be if all Democrats cluttering up my country were extinguished.

[Vernon Depner]

Violent crime is spiking in cities all over the country. Look at local news coverage rather than at the dubious "statistics".

[Nelson]

Right. Because anecdotes are much better than data. Your feelings about crime are the most valid statistic.

[Ben of Houston]

According to cde.ucr.cjis.gov, homicide in 2019 was 5.1 per 100k.
In 2022, it's 6.3 per 100k, which is down from 6.8 per 100k in 2021.

That seems to fit Trump's definition of an increase.

I don't trust some of the other statistics because of the clear impetus to manipulate data and deceive for political purposes. Something that our government has repeatedly shown willingness to do. Murder you can't hide, but pretty much anything else can.

[Nelson]

How about 2020?

[Ben of Houston]

Two things. First, we cannot overly blame Trump for a pair of political movements that swept the country. These being the COVID lockdowns and the BLM protests. These were outside of his control. Just like we cannot blame fully FDR for the increase of deaths by German gunfire under his rule

We can put at least partial blame on Harris, who actively supported the protests even after they became violent and deadly.

Now, after 4 years, what should have been a spike of unrest has become a step change. Many blame the policies that Biden and Harris actively supported, notably reduced policing and open borders. This is hardly a falsehood. It's arguably not even an oversimplification.

[Truthteller1]

Sullum regurgitates the regime narrative. How clever.

[JohnZ]

Chicago to date:
Shot and killed:331
Shot and wounded:1609
Total shot: 1940
Total Homicides: 377
Stats courtesy Hey jackass/ Celebrating Chicago values
Remember these are non demonized homicides.
Where is Dolton mayor Tiffany Henyard?

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (5-30 Banana Republic Day)]

According to Sarc and Pedo Jeffy, Chicago is doing great and crime is way down.

[George Reeves]

I think I read a Reason article as few months ago saying that violent crime reports were down down due to a change in reporting systems. Am I correct? If so, then this article is useless.

[TZM]

Then Trump has no basis for saying they are up, either.

[Vesicant]

Maybe inner city blacks aren't killing each other as much (shooting to wound, perhaps?), but homicides by illegal aliens sure seem to be increasing. Not that 'reason' staff cares as long as they get their maids and gardeners.

[Nelson]

"Seem to be", eh? So still not as high as citizens or green card holders, but you feel like they are worse. Because ... feelings.

[Ratwrangler]

According to the FBI, 31% of police departments stopped reporting crimes to the agency after the FBI changed its system in 2022. That would easily explain a drop in the numbers reported even though the number of total crimes may have gone up. Local police reports show that crime is higher than ever in my city, and other police departments show similar changes.