Big Win for France's Far Right
Plus: Biden messaging turns dark, Iran's voter nihilism, Catholic socialists, and more...
Far right succeeds in France: President Emmanuel Macron decided to hold a snap election for the French National Assembly last month, as opposed to waiting until October, when Macron's pollsters had told him his defeat would be a sure thing.
He may be regretting that choice now, as it delivered a decisive first-round win to Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party. National Rally won 33 percent of the vote, while a coalition of leftists called the New Popular Front won 28 percent of the vote. Macron's party, Renaissance, won about 20 percent of the vote.
This was no fluke. Voter turnout was extremely high—67 percent, compared to 47.5 percent in the first round of the 2022 elections—reflecting how intensely voters felt about registering their preferences.
More than 70 candidates of the 577-seat National Assembly were elected outright, with solid enough majorities that negate the need for more rounds of elections. "Projections from several polling institutes suggested the National Rally would win between 240 and 310 seats in the runoff for the 577-seat National Assembly; the New Popular Front between 150 and 200 seats; and Mr. Macron's Renaissance party and its allies between 70 and 120 seats," reports The New York Times. "The ranges are broad because much can change in the week before the second round. For an absolute majority, a party needs 289 seats."
Now Macron and New Popular Front are "weighing whether to pull candidates from the second round of the legislative election on Sunday to keep the ascendant far-right National Rally out of power," reports Bloomberg. The two parties are worried about vote-splitting, and they're trying to unite to keep Le Pen's party from having an absolute majority, which would make it easier for them to push through their domestic policy agenda, which is protectionist and heavily anti-immigrant.
"The extremes are the impoverishment of France," said Macron. But his anti–Le Pen campaign seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Macron himself is unpopular, being seen as elitist and condescending, while Le Pen's messaging is finding a home with populist voters. All of this is likely a bad thing for those who care about free trade and immigration, but it does appear to be the will of the voters. In a sense, it's the darkest possible timeline: France's two economically illiterate extremes are gaining larger and larger vote shares.
Doubling down: Joe Biden's campaign, following a disastrous debate performance this past Thursday in which the candidate's old age was on full display, called critics "the bedwetting brigade" in a fundraising blast.
"The bedwetting brigade is calling for Joe Biden to 'drop out.' That is the best possible way for Donald Trump to win and us to lose," said the Saturday email, titled "7 Things to Tell Your Friends After the Debate." (I will not in fact be telling my friends any of these suggested talking points.)
The email contained such beautiful nuggets as "the long-term impact of debates is overstated anyway" and "if [Biden] were to drop out, it would lead to weeks of chaos, internal foodfighting, and a bunch of candidates who limp into a brutal floor fight at the convention."
But voters are not stupid. A post-debate CBS poll reports that "72% said Biden didn't have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president" up from 65 percent pre-debate.
"Aides spent the weekend publicly dismissing suggestions that Biden reconsider his candidacy or take dramatic steps to overhaul his operation," reports Bloomberg, as staffers huddled at Camp David with the president. "After cursory concessions that the debate went poorly, surrogates insisted the impact was overblown—and that those speculating about replacing Biden on the ticket were hurting their party by considering an idea that would only prompt chaos and infighting." Now reports are emerging of Biden's staffers trashing Vice President Kamala Harris, attempting to foreclose Harris as a replacement option.
Healthy!
Though California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer may be getting their hopes up about taking over the ticket, the Biden operation looks hellbent on standing by their man, even as top donors urge them to reconsider. It's a mess, and there's a good chance it will culminate in replacement, defeat, death, or a nasty convention floor showdown in Chicago.
Scenes from New York: Spotted in Carroll Gardens this weekend. Reason #673 why I moved out of Brooklyn! You simply do not need Biden/Harris action figures displayed in your window, and I reserve my right to mock you if this is how you choose to live.
QUICK HITS
- In California, a United Airlines crew allegedly "ejected a Texas mom scrambling to get her young child and elderly mother settled on the plane after she accidentally addressed a transgender-identifying employee with male pronouns," reports National Review. (There is a lot of he said/she said between the traveler and the airline here. But the woman says the offending words were "Thank you, sir.")
- "As a practical matter, people cannot be fined or jailed out of homelessness," writes Jerusalem Demsas for The Atlantic. "When cities turn to punitive measures without offering options more suitable than camping outside, they're at best simply moving homeless people around in an endless dystopian game. At worst, they're imposing fines and other legal costs on people already defined by their lack of resources, and increasing the likelihood that they remain transient and unhoused."
- Iranian voter nihilism.
- Possibly my favorite episode of Just Asking Questions we've done yet. Please give it a watch if you're not repulsed by the thought of religion:
