New Federal Report: Half of Public School Students Are Now Performing Below Grade Level
The number surged during the pandemic.

A new report from the National Center for Education Statistics provides yet more evidence that American schoolchildren suffered dramatic educational losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report compiled data from various sources on the state of American primary, secondary, and higher education, looking at everything from college graduation rates to child poverty rates.
While dramatic declines in scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress test have received national attention, the newly released report sheds light on a different metric showing declines in performance.
According to one survey cited, American public schools reported, on average, that 49 percent of their students were behind grade level in at least one subject during the beginning of the 2022–2023 school year. This is only a tiny improvement compared to the beginning of the 2021–2022 school year, when schools reported an average of 50 percent of their students were behind. Before the pandemic, schools reported that an average of 36 percent of their students were behind.
Gaps remained fairly stable across variables, though there were some regional differences. In the Northeast, schools reported that 31 percent of students were behind grade level pre-pandemic, a number that rose to 49 percent by the beginning of the 2022–2023 school year. Schools in the Midwest and South reported that 45 percent and 48 percent of their students were behind grade level in 2022–2023, respectively, up from 34 percent and 36 percent pre-pandemic.
Score declines were most pronounced among elementary and middle school students. While high schools only reported an increase of nine percentage points in students behind grade level, elementary and middle schools had increases of 14 percentage points and 15 percentage points, respectively.
These latest data show yet again how damaging the pandemic—and the months of school closures that followed—have been to American primary and secondary school students. Even a year after many schools have returned to in-person learning, large swaths of students are still behind.
Things didn't have to be this way. Sweden, for example, never closed its primary schools, and according to one 2022 study in the International Journal of Educational Research, primary schoolchildren didn't experience post-pandemic learning loss as measured by reading assessments.
"We can't change the past. But we can learn from it," wrote The Atlantic's Derek Thompson last fall. "Democrats' disproportionate support for school closures was very likely an unforced error that has contributed to worse achievement gaps between rich kids and poor kids, and that has set children back several years in math classes in which they were already struggling to demonstrate proficiency."
Closing schools for months—or even years—during the COVID-19 pandemic was a disastrous policy, one that clearly has had an enduring impact on the children relegated to remote instruction. While many schools are making concerted efforts to close learning gaps, it's unclear how long it will take to reverse COVID-era educational shortfalls.
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homeschool ranks grew by about 4 MILLION since the start of the wuhan virus lockdowns. That trend should continue going forward hopefully.
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Private schooling is increasing with the School Choice movement too. I expect some substantial hits to the disgraced public schools over the coming years.
My nieces in private school missed 2 months of in-person classes over the course of the entire 2+ year period of public school closures, and as a result, their classes are still performing at approximately where they were prior - about a grade level ahead of their actual class grade.
Meanwhile, my niece in the local public school missed almost 2 full years of in-person classes, and her schoolmates are about a grade level behind where they were supposed to be and were performing to prior to the pandemic shutdowns.
The private school charges tuition that is approximately half of what the public school district spends per student.
And even worse, the schools are failing to help kids. Coming out of 2021, my kid was getting straight A's in math, and scored at the 60th percentile on standardized tests. How can parents even intervene if the teachers won't even provide accurate data on how the kids are doing? The middle school eliminated an entire Advanced Math class because the incoming classes didn't provide enough students.
Fortunately, we had the means and time needed to get our kids back on target. But for many kids, the schools continue to push them through. And we aren't talking inner city schools where no one cares. Our district is one of those where people pay $200k more for their houses just to attend. This has gone from neglect to a broad-based coverup in even "Great Schools".
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"Half of Public School Students Are Now Performing Below Grade Level"
Is that not what what one would expect in a normal distribution about the mean?
If the author is challenged to simply identify a mean and standard deviation of the bell curve of performance, then maybe there has been some dumbing down of the reporting staff throughout the pandemic too.
No. Standards were lowered already around 2010. So even with lowered standards from just 20 years ago they are failing.
No because "grade level" is not the same as "average for the grade". The term "grade level" in this context means "the minimum acceptable level for the grade as defined by ..."
Who gets to do the defining and what standards they use are an interesting question but it's all based on skills expected of a person at that level, not any kind of average.
So maybe before ranting about other people not knowing what statistical terms mean, you should educate yourself on whether they apply in the first place.
Perhaps Emma should also complain that those half performing above grade level should be promoted a grade to balance things out.
No, because again that's not what "grade level" means.
Not at all. The US is Lake Woebegon where ALL the kids should be above average.
Grade level is an objective standard that's defined before the data is collected, average is a relative statistical level (or one of several depending on whether you're referring to mean, median, or some other interpretation of the data set) based on the data alone and unrelated to any pre-defined reference value.
50% will always be above/below the median level of scores, regardless of what portion of the scores are above or below the "grade level" threshold value.
Taking a random data set as an example, if you were to roll a set of 5 dice and sum the number of pips on the upper faces 100 times, 50 of those rolls would always be less than the median value of the set, but 100 of those rolls would have a total greater than 4 and less than 31. If you were to define "grade level" as 7, you'd likely have very few results below that value, but if you defined it as 27, there'd probably be very few above that. Not to imply that educational outcomes are random, just an illustration of how the terminology and statistical processing of data sets functions, and how real-world results might be measured by arbitrary standards, but aren't controlled by them.
If learning was evenly distributed. But it isn't. Say you know nothing about statistics without saying you know nothing about statistics.
The mean doesn't actually mean that fifty percent are below the mean and fifty percent above. You can use some models to try and normalize a non-evenly distributed set of data points but they are just tools to allow you to normalize an otherwise non normal distribution. Additionally, when discussing grade level expectations, the idea is that you want a right biased distribution, i.e. a distribution where most all students are at or above that grade level. If you're expectations of grade level proficiency is such that 50% fail to achieve it, then either your expectations are to high or you're failing to teach properly. If it is, as in this case, that expectations have only been lowered and proficiency has decreased it strongly suggests it's the latter not the former that is the problem.
If you are trying to measure 'loss during a pandemic because of school closures' - very reasonable imo - there is a big learning loss every summer when kids return. Which is why teachers spend about a month just getting kids back to where they were in May.
Most other countries don't do a 3-month break every year. Six to eight weeks is more common for the 'big break'. Which means our kids are more vulnerable to breakage in the school year - even for weather. But it also provides a longer window each year where we can recover from past breakage - if we choose to.
The pandemic was global. Every country had some degree of disruption. As early as summer 2020 - after generally eight weeks of school closures in most countries - studies from everywhere showed that NOTHING was learned anywhere. A 'vacation' without any fun. The studies are online and are a big reason most of the world rushed during that summer to get schools back open for the 2020-2021 school year.
Here many states persisted with online (even if they gave the decision making authority to the district) until the vax - roughly first semester or an additional 16 weeks of nothing learned. The most constipated states (HI CA, OR, WA, MD) persisted beyond that.
It is only in the 2021-2022 school year and beyond that the disruptions were more at the individual school/district level. Which is more akin to what happened in Sweden/Taiwan - and what used to happen with measles/polio/etc back in their day.
But I don't see any suggestions/ideas to recover from that massive loss. Somewhere between 24 weeks and a full year of 'summer break' loss. Certainly not in this commentariat some of whom presumably still have kids in school. We've got data about what different states did during covid re schools closures and openings. And thus what extra time in school they need to do to recover from the closures.
It will be interesting to see whether libertarians are able to offer anything beyond just the usual slogans re 'public education' that have been around for decades. Well not really interesting at all since there is no suspense re that response.
Well this was put in the wrong place.
"It will be interesting to see whether libertarians are able to offer anything beyond just the usual slogans re ‘public education’ that have been around for decades"
Lol. "Stupid Libertarians! Stop pointing out how we fucked up the nation's children and tell us how to fix it!"
Never change, JFear.
You forgot something. It's really: "Stop pointing out how we fucked up the nation’s children and tell us how to fix it, without replacing us or requiring us to change!"
The individual test scores that measure ‘grade level’ are almost certainly Gaussian or normal/Bell shaped outcome.
The skills that underlie those scores – and the combination of different test results (math, english, etc) – may well (and likely do) follow more of a power law or Pareto distribution. But there is no such thing as a meaningful average and variance with that sort of distribution. Meaning no meaningful statistical ‘minimum’ (eg 2 standard deviations below mean) that represents a testable standard to move from one grade to the next.
IOW – 20% of students record enough measurable progress across the various sub-categories of testing to move from one grade to the next. The rest are just socially promoted in hopes that they will be part of a different 20% next year. To the degree some students get held back, it is not because of a one year failure but because they have been socially promoted for a few years with no 20% years.
Dare to mention where it's worst, Emma? It's worst in those states that locked kids out of school for several months and longer, and in those cities where the teachers union said, and I quote, "The push to reopen schools is rooted in sexism, racism and misogyny."
https://reason.com/2020/12/06/chicago-teachers-union-reopen-schools-sexism-racism-misogyny/
You could've found it right here, within the bounds of your own publication.
Here's more, Emma, from the bluest of the blue strongholds (written by an actual libertarian group):
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chicago-public-schools-hit-record-graduation-rate-as-math-reading-scores-drop/
Nearly half of Chicago Public Schools students missed at least 18 days of school last year. Just one-fifth of high school students are reading and completing math at grade level. Yet CPS celebrated a record-high graduation rate.
In spring 2022, CPS leaders boasted of a record-high graduation rate after the four-year graduation rate increased by nearly 3 percentage points between 2021 and 2022. But just 23% of students in the graduating class of 2022 could read at grade level as juniors during the 2020-2021 school year. About 21% could perform math proficiently.
One academic year later, 83% of those students who had entered 9th grade in fall 2018 graduated. Nearly 85% who entered 9th grade in fall 2017 graduated.
During the same school year in which about 83% of students who completed high school in four years graduated, nearly 80% of current CPS 11th-grade students failed to meet proficiency in reading and math.
Emma is still crying about not getting served beer in MD....
It turns out to be easy to reduce drop-outs. Don't let them come to school in the first place and they won't drop out!
I wonder if little Emma has had a moment of clarity where she realizes that all the people in charge of education. Including the evil teacher’s union, the bureaucracy, and a super majority of teachers, are democrats. Most of them ‘progressives.
Probably not.
Public schools are run by Democrats because Republicans want to turn them into bible schools. We'd never compete in the world if education was run by you cons.
You lie. Most Republicans don't want Bible schools, they want schools that actually teach rather than propagandize for leftist causes.
And in any case, a Bible school will make sure the kids can read the Bible, and that's better than schools that don't teach them to read anything.
Is it any wonder that Catholic schools generally outperform public schools? EdG seems troubled. Here's the proof:
https://www.americanexperiment.org/catholic-school-achievement-fares-better-than-public-school-counterparts/
Sadly, too many of our kids have to be in public schools. Fortunately, my grandson is in a charter school.
I haven't been impressed by my grandson's teachers for the past two years, and he's only I second grade. He's an excellent reader but poor in math. I try to help him learn to think in different ways. Thank goodness he's got family who cares and helps him but makes him think and do the work himself. (My mom did all my math homework, hehe!)
In my opinion, we tend to leave too much of the teaching to teachers. Parents, and family members, hopefully take an active interest in their child's education.
With poor educators, we must keep trying.
The state-by-state results get a little messy because not all states set their policy at that level.
Texas, for example allowed schools to re-open relatively quicly but didn't force them to, and the districts in Houston (most populous city in the state) stayed closed for some time after Abott lifted statewide restrictions. I believe that Newsom kept CA schools closed at the state level for the last 3 months of the 2019-202 school year, and most/all of the 2020-21 year, but I don't know if it was the state or the district level which kept LAUSD closed until some time into 2022. Private schools in the state only shut down for 6-12 weeks in 2020, and I think that OC and San Diego probably re-opened well in advance of L.A.
Going as planned. Focus on SEL and indoctrination.
I'm sure some of the usual people will blame NCLB without remembering that was scrapped under Obama and standards were lowered with democrats canceling advanced courses for equality reasons. Then the dems pushing for failed versions of reading and math.
The more progressive public education gets in this country, the worse and worse that students do. It's almost like there's a connection.
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My kids are doing fine.
As are the kids of every other parent that made sure their kids attended online classes and did their homework.
Yet the statistics show otherwise. See the article above for one.
Great! I would guess you get involved with their education.
If you don't, you're very lucky.
White people...
When taking care of your protesters, it's important they get plenty of water and sunshine.
If only they were allowed to say gay.
As long as kids understand the difference between binary and non binary it should satisfy the math requirement in my opinion. The reading scores are trickier because the definitions of words, in English at least, change on a daily basis.
Who's got time to learn math when they're cramming for the weekly quiz over what every class member's pronouns are? And if there's one "fluid" kid in the mix, hod you study for an answer that could change hourly?
I think it was on Jesse Signal's "Blocked and Reported" podcast (co-hosted with Katie Herzog) where they made some semi-joke about when the first Congress made up of mostly "millenials" convenes the first 3 days will be consumed by a recitation of pronouns for all 435 members. Makes one wonder if they'll ever find time to do any "productive" work among all of that.
Simple solution: lower grade level standards.
I know, right? Why haven't our education experts figured that out? It's not rocket science.
Ladies and gentlemen, the democrats.
New Federal Report: Half of Public School Students Are Now Performing Below Grade Level
The number surged during the pandemic.
LOL.
Anybody want to take two guesses as to which half surged during Ms. Camp’s time in public schools?
1. The 1/2 whose parents didn't ensure they attended online classes and did their homework.
2. The 1/2, all conservatives, who thought Covid was a hoax and thus convinced their kids there was no need to attend online classes and do their homework.
Your guess was incorrect.
@EdG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
Or below average. Half are below average. Emma, did you read that after your wrote it?
Correspondingly, half are above average. Or maybe, Emma, you think some significant portion are at average, and the rest are above average. Either way is silly.
Here's something else to think about, Emma: any time a product is classified into 12 age chunks, even though there are actually 365*12 age graduations, only 1/365 are going to be average, with 182/365 below average and 182/365 above average.
And then you throw in genetics and home environment, and those 12*365 graduations get further muddled, but you still have those huge 1/12-sized chunks to fit them all, and guess what, they aren't all average.
Imagine you were doing this with weights, ranging from 12 kg to 67 kg, per a kinda confusing CDC chart I found. You divide them into 12 chunks linearly, you get 12, 17, 22, 27, 32, 37, 42, 47, 52, 57, 62, 67. Imagine all the natural variations, plus all the daily variations.
Emma, are you still going to be surprised that half are below average weight and half above?
Thus ended today's arithmetic lesson. Show your work, Emma.
This was covered above in 2 of the 24 comments posted but I guess you missed them. Grade level is not the mean of test takers. It is those who perform at a predetermined standard of testing. A standard that has been downgraded for decades to mask the ever increasing failure of public schools to impart even minimal academic ability. Means and averages are not relevant.
Nice but useless info. There are still 12 huge buckets to put a zillion variations, and regardless of how they define the buckets, half are going to be below and half above.
No, that's not how it works. Grade level is the minimum standard of knowledge for that grade, not the average of test scores for students in that grade. Since you can't grasp this simple concept, it's readily apparent you were home-schooled.
On the contrary, homeschooling is more beneficial to students than public school is:
https://www.verywellfamily.com/how-does-homeschooling-compare-to-public-school-5075997
You're talking past each other. Much like my English-related point above (half means both numbers are the same, 'the number rose' is unintelligible); Gaear's presumably right methodologically speaking but, absent Emma showing any work, neither of you can know.
If "grade level" meant "average", half of the kids should be held back each year.
Some students are so far behind the curve they may never be able to get a drink in a bar.
Yes, but the majority are well ahead in preferred pronoun usage, critical gender theory, and anti-racism, so it's all good. Who cares if the little shits can't read or do basic math? Those things are racist, misogynistic, and non-inclusive anyway.
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Sounds to me like they need more money. That'll fix it!
Yes, but have they attained the critical consciousness needed for responsible decision making? Do they even know the 17 sustainability goals? These standardized tests don’t account for other ways of knowing, and really just exist to replicate the oppressive superstructure of social constructs that are the real reason these children are failing. Also, we should spend more money on it all. Especially on Human Resources departments.
@A Cynical Asshole ^^^
Obama's common core. You see standardized tests don't believe 2+2=5 or that math is racist. Only idiot liberals believe that.
It's like the age old question,
Q: "How many teachers work in public school?"
A: "About half."
Now, now; Does the grade school level test include Butt-sex Pride, Ability to pretend gender isn’t a natural identifier, and well; thwart all basic laws of nature???
I be thinking the ability to sell stupid in these kids is probably pretty well mastered. Thanks to Commie-Education.
New testing needed... Question 1.
Can unicorn farts power the world and oil energy is a monopolized dirty-myth? (a: True).
Were the students in Garrison Keillor's Lake Woebegone, in which every stuent is above average, included?
City of Rochester NY..Rochester School District enrollment is at the 1920 levels YET is now spending a Billion dollars a year or over $50K per kid. less than 10% of the kids are testing at reading or math levels.
It is time to pull the plug on government schools. Local communities should give each family "X" dollars to education their kids at they see fit. "govt schools" would cut their administrative costs overnight, getting rid of their DIE departments as well. The entire educational industrial complex needs to be taken down starting with K-12 and then moving to higher ed. Oh and get rid of "schools of education"...they are breeding ground for stupid bolshie ideas like whole language and fuzzy math and trans lunacy.