Government Spending

Biden's Build Back Better Act Will Likely Cost Twice as Much as the CBO Projects. Here's Why.

If all the Build Back Better plan's proposals were made permanent, the final price tag would be $4.8 trillion and the bill would add about $2.8 trillion to the deficit.

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President Joe Biden's Build Back Better Act is likely to end up costing taxpayers about double what the official price tag suggests, and much of that hidden cost will end up being added to the national debt.

That's the conclusion from two independent analyses of the proposal released in recent weeks. Both rely on a key assumption that did not figure into the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) analysis of the bill: that the Build Back Better plan's various policies will be in place for at least the next 10 years.

"The Build Back Better Act relies on a number of arbitrary sunsets and expirations to lower the official cost of the bill," explains the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit that advocates for balanced budgets. The group's newly updated analysis of the Build Back Better plan finds that the package will cost an estimated $4.8 trillion over 10 years if all provisions are made permanent—double the price tag applied by the CBO last month.

As Reason has repeatedly pointed out, several key parts of the bill are designed to game the CBO's method for scoring the cost of legislation by setting arbitrary expiration dates even though lawmakers obviously intend for those policies to be permanent fixtures. Probably the best example is the expanded child tax credit, which would expire after just a single year. Other parts of the bill, including the universal pre-K funding and new subsidies for child care, would expire after six years. Expanded subsidies through the Affordable Care Act would last until 2025.

With all those gimmicks in place, the CBO assessment of the bill projects that it will cost about $1.8 trillion and add about $367 billion to the deficit over the next decade.

If all the Build Back Better plan's proposals were made permanent, however, the final price tag would be $4.8 trillion, and the bill would add about $2.8 trillion to the deficit, according to the CRFB.

"To be sure, lawmakers may choose not to extend some or all of these provisions," the CRFB analysis states. "However, if they do, they would need to more than double current offsets in order for the bill and the extensions to be paid for. The alternative would be a substantial increase in the debt."

The CRFB's projections closely match a similar analysis of the bill conducted in November by the Wharton Budget Model, a number-crunching project housed at the University of Pennsylvania. Making the temporary provisions of the BBB plan permanent, the Wharton analysis found, would raise the overall cost of the package to about $4.6 trillion.

The Wharton analysis also provides a useful illustration of why policy makers engage in this sort of budget gimmickry to pass big spending bills—and, to be sure, this is a game that both Republicans and Democrats are adept at playing.

As currently written—with all those early expiration dates and temporary provisions—the Wharton Budget Model projects that the BBB proposal would add about $274 billion to the deficit over the next decade. It would also result in a 0.2 percent reduction in GDP (relative to expected GDP growth in a reality where the bill does not pass).

Those figures change dramatically when the full scope of the spending package is revealed. If all provisions in the BBB plan are made permanent, "federal debt increase by 24.4 percent and GDP would fall by 2.9 percent relative to current law." The decline in GDP is due to the fact that higher levels of debt will likely sap future economic growth, because the government will have to pay larger sums of money—extracted via taxes from productive parts of the economy—to service the debt.

In short, by hiding the true cost of the Build Back Better plan's provisions over the long term, Congress is also able to hide the long-term economic impact of hiking government spending by trillions of dollars.

The Biden administration's pitch to Americans—and to key holdouts in Congress like Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.)—has been that the BBB plan won't add to the deficit and that it will boost the economy. It's becoming clear that neither is true, no matter how hard Congress tries to hide the true cost of the legislation.

NEXT: Brickbats: Soviet Edition

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  2. You mean Congress gimmicked a proposal to take advantage of how the CBO calculates things to make it appear to cost half of what it will actually cost?

    That's a first.

    1. Shocking!

      1. I’m sure you’re very pleased with your Marxist masters.

    2. Things always cost a lot more than advertised in Congress. The balance is arrived at because taxes raised are a lot less.

    3. 100% in agreement with sarc, noting the day and time.

    4. 1 trillion is the new 0

      1. Red is the new black.

    5. If only Comrade Stalin knew of this outrage....

  3. But money printer go brrrr!

  4. Oh good, even more resources used for good social purposes instead of whatever you think they'd be better off doing. Flying half-educated billionaires into almost-space, I gather?

    Wouldn't it be more productive to talk about which goods and services should be publicly funded and which should be market-based? Rather than this "national debt" fiction? Defend your ideas on their merits, not on the fantasy that the US government is indebted to some creditor.

    1. When you have to print money to do it, you're not using resources, you're stealing from the people that have resources. Obviously, that's not your problem since you don't believe in being stuck working.

      1. Only if you raise taxes too. Raising taxes and spending money are two separate government activities. If government is spending money (which comes from nowhere else but the government in the first place), it's subsidizing some use of resources for public ends (those may be good or bad depending on who's in charge).

        A responsible government is recognizing that the market is failing to produce some desired outcome and fills in the gap. In principle, yes, this means decreasing the capacity for some other economic activity.

        I think reducing the luxuries of the very rich is a public good unto itself, but if you like, you can say we're cutting them off in favor of providing services to the poor, because that's the obviously moral thing to do. Whatever floats your yacht.

        1. "I think reducing the luxuries of the very rich is a public good unto itself"

          LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

          The 10 richest Americans have gained a combined $342 billion in about 10 months of the #BidenBoom.

          #VoteDemocratToHelpMarkZuckerberg

        2. Raising taxes and spending money are two separate government activities.

          No they're not, it's one activity. Raising taxes is increasing spending.

          1. I don't follow.

            1. Tax increases are not used to 'pay down debt' or 'balance budgets', they are always used to spend on projects. Even if you believe those projects and spending are noble and good and necessary, they don't whittle the debt down, they are spent. They may help to reduce the deficit in a given year, but they will never whittle down the debt. Ever. They are spent by the government.

              1. When dollars are taken in taxes, those dollars are literally destroyed. Congress must pass a law to spend money and another law to tax people. They are only linked by happenstance, so your notions are a dumb excuse never to raise taxes ever.

                1. And this is why our debt and defect are so high, progressives actually think like Tony.

                  1. He is defective.

                    Welcome back soldier!

                  2. It is just astonishing the amount of ignorance that is wrapped up in thinking basically that money grows on trees and we can just print as much as we want with no consequence.

                    I mean, even completely ignoring Newton's Third Law of Motion, it is truly unbelievable the lack of basic sense one has to have to hold such an economic position.

                2. Because, after all, if interest rates remain low and inflation is under control, who cares about deficit spending?

                  Thank goodness interest rates can stay low and we have no inflation.

                  I get my news from the best sources, most in touch with poor people and their lives.

                  1. That's why the Biden laws you're horsebitching about are roughly deficit neutral.

                    Tell me that taxes are evil again so we can go round and round the carousel of fuck where we must adopt a bunch of horseshit libertarian policy or we'll be literally swallowed by a circular tear in logic.

                    1. There’s nothing circular about not being an authoritarian adshole.

                    2. "Deficit neutral?" Question, were you actually able to write that with a straight face?

                3. When dollars are taken in taxes, those dollars are literally destroyed. Congress must pass a law to spend money and another law to tax people.

                  That totally explains how they give my excess, literally destroyed tax dollars back to me without passing any laws.

                  I can't imagine people wanting to emulate someone who hates himself so much.

                  1. Bud, dollars are fungible.

          2. Spending is taxing. The money comes from the people, either directly or through devaluing the currency.

        3. Wouldn't it be more productive to talk about which goods and services should be publicly funded and which should be market-based?

          No goods should be publicly funded. It’s the most costly way to do things.

          1. That's obviously radically dogmatic in the extreme. And might I add, nuts.

            1. Go get a job.

              1. No. Imagine someone, at least once a day, psychologically compelled to tie a string around a hammer and twirl it above his head until it hits him in the face. Now imagine inflicting that person on some hapless burger flippers or mom and pop store owner.

                Just do everyone, including yourself, a favor and eat a bullet Tony.

        4. Well, if you're past the moral objection to stealing, there's also the utilitarian arguments. Taxing the rich to reduce their luxury spending removes some of the early market adapters for luxury goods (like electric cars, flat screen TVs, smart phones, etc.), meaning those products take longer to reach the mass market and make everyone's lives better, or don't materialize at all if there's no early payoff for investors.

          And skimming more and more money from people who have proven successful at producing wealth and economic growth, and giving it to people who have proven successful at wasting money and loading up future taxpayers with enormous debt hardly seems like a good formula for future growth.

          1. If you think taxation is theft, then any government is off the table, and your head is off its rocker. But anarchism is at least consistent.

            I'll allow that a large social safety net dampens perhaps even positive developments at the luxury end, but there is certainly a middle ground between mass starvation and the Gilded Age. Billionaires are wasting a lot of resources on nonsense, and they still have more wealth than their grandchildren can possibly spend in 10 lifetimes, so it might be the case that there's a tad bit of misallocation.

            As for your broad assumption that wealth is the same as virtue and poverty is the same as vice, well that's just horrible. The daughter of Sam Walton didn't produce shit. She just got shat out of the right vagina.

            Concordantly, some teenager working the burger flipper does more productive work than most middle managers I know.

            1. Tony, (an obviously poor person), is better equipped to tell a billionaire how to spend his money.

            2. can I think taxation is theft and still be *just* happy enough with life to not burn buildings down about it?

            3. Taxation gives money it’s value. And taxation is only paid by the threat of putting people in prison.

              Therefore, our prison system gives our money value.

              If that’s moral to you, you’re psycho.

        5. Yeah, who the fuck has the nerve to think they should control their own gains from their own efforts. Only government can determine how to distribute wealth.

          Tony, how the fuck do you even think you should engage with a web site that claims libertarian intent?

          1. Again, if you assume that Tony hates himself enough to convince everyone he's an immoral goatfucking retard, it all makes a lot more sense. Even the question of why he hasn't jumped off a bridge or dowsed himself in gasoline and lit a cigarette is explained by his cowardice.

        6. (Which comes from nowhere else but the government in the first place)

          Oh good! Then we can eliminate taxes! I mean, what’s the point of taxes if all money belongs to government anyway?

        7. "I think reducing the luxuries of the very rich is a public good unto itself"

          Covetousness is a bad look on anyone.

      2. ..the money printing LIE....

        No such things happening.

        There is NOT trillions in currency

        Are we too LAZY or STUPID to just GOOGLE the amount of money issued?

        .Its only in the billions.

    2. "Flying half-educated billionaires into almost-space, I gather?"

      As a Koch / Reason libertarian, I'd ordinarily be offended by this anti-billionaire rhetoric. However in your case I'll let it slide. Because I know that you, like American Socia1ist, obediently vote exactly how billionaires want you to.

      I believe the phenomenon is called "stated preferences vs. revealed preferences."

      #BillionairesForBiden

      1. It’s also called being stupid.

      2. There's only two options, and neither wants to eradicate billionaires.

        So the only thing to do is buy time by not electing fascist death cultists who don't believe in science.

        1. It is spelled Science!

          1. Yeah, science is for nerds who wear flannel pajamas.

            Here, have a beer bottle. Go smash it on someone's head.

            1. The flannel pajama brigade are the beneficiaries of Science!. They get to sit at home and Xbox all day.

              Fauci told me to avoid casual contact with gay men due to the chance of contracting AIDS. So I decline. In the name of Science!

          1. She's right, of course, but she's also not getting anywhere near the Oval Office any time soon.

            1. If Occasional Cortex, or you, got close to the Oval Office, it would be time to play Grassy Knoll.

        2. Tony describes his own party to a T.

          1. Tony has singlehandedly pushed me further to the right politically than anyone I have ever come across. It's hard to read his rationale for things and think that I want anything to do with such complete hate-filled obtuseness.

    3. "Defend your ideas on their merits, not on the fantasy that the US government is indebted to some creditor."

      Inflation tends to be quite the bitch.

      "Good social purposes". Given that you cannot name anything you support that is actually in this bill, I doubt that.

    4. “Defend your ideas….”

      Defend giving more money to people who waste staggering amounts of other peoples money already.

      You ugly.

    5. Lol. Losers love to talk about how they can be more “productive” with other people’s money.

      Damn, you suck tony.

    6. I don't consider my treasury bonds to be fantasy. The US government is indeed indebted to me.

      1. HAHAHAHAHAHA Click your heels together, Dorothy..

        ...until they DEFAULT on them.

        Anyway theyll just deduct the TBill value from the $43K in debt that Brandons BBB is gonna cost you.

  5. So what's the plan?
    A constitutional amendment saying all programs with a sunset clause MUST sunset, and cannot be reintroduced for 15 years?
    Or an amendment requiring all politicians who vote to retain a sunsetting provision to be defined as resigning and forfeiting all pension?
    Or just a good old insurrection?
    Or business as usual, and lying politicians continue to lie?

    1. I think the real problem is in the heads of the American people, and the solution has to do with persuading Americans to want something better.

      1. persuading Americans

        Racist.

    2. I think no reconciliation bill being allowed to have sunset clauses of a shorter time frame than 10 years would be a good start.

  6. These are all excellent observations, but why weren't they made in October of 2020?

    We all knew this was coming. Joe Biden campaigned on doing this.

    "Biden believes the Green New Deal is a crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face. It powerfully captures two basic truths, which are at the core of his plan: (1) the United States urgently needs to embrace greater ambition on an epic scale to meet the scope of this challenge, and (2) our environment and our economy are completely and totally connected."

    ----The Biden Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice

    https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/

    Did you think the progressives were lying? Were you completely ignorant of what they were promising to do if Biden was elected?

    1. Reason and its contributors thought Biden was lying to the progressives in order to secure their support at the ballot box. They believed that Biden was lying to the lunatic left with the intention of pivoting and then governing as a moderate.

      At the end of the day, nobody at this rag actually cared who was lying or who was telling the truth so long as Trump was no longer President. They should be reminded of their shortsightedness every single day, with extreme prejudice.

      1. Return to norms, adults in charge.

      2. "Nobody cared . . so long as Trump was no longer President."

        There's a term for that. It's called, "Trump Derangement Syndrome".

        Have they learned anything?

        Do they still have TDS?

        Have they even acknowledged their error, or do they maintain that there was no way they could have known that letting socialists take over the whole government would result in socialism?

        1. They still have TDS. No, they have not learned a god-damned thing.

        2. He didn't offer much of a choice, did he?

          Was it the policy of spreading disease that got you off, or just the plain old racism?

          1. More have died under Biden than Trump.

            1. Quite a few more. And that is with us knowing how to treat it AND having a vaccine. And a "President" who said he had a plan to deal with COVID before he even got into office.

              1. 100 days to shut down the virus.

              2. "Nationwide Injunction"

                Biden Got F' ed..

            2. Yeah, Trumpers who refuse to vaccinate.

              1. Thats a scary world you live in comrade.

                Just because someone refuses to get vaccinated doesn't make them a Trump supporter.

            3. And racism is now on the rise…… from democrats.

            4. "More have died under Biden than Trump."
              Whoever is getting the benefit of your intelligence is not known to me; that asshole is one of the lefty shitbags who has gotten 'muted'.
              But more importantly, your efforts are wasted on that stupid pile of shit:
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww47bR86wSc&t=2s

          2. or just the plain old racism?

            His plain old racism is one of the reasons Biden is such a vile person.

        3. Brandon’s Bolshevik Bingo…,you win or you end up in camps.

          1. Prob. " B" if theres a Trump sticker on your vehicle.

      3. is kinda fun in a ludicrously tragic way.

      4. Reason and its contributors thought Biden was lying to the progressives in order to secure their support at the ballot box. They believed that Biden was lying to the lunatic left with the intention of pivoting and then governing as a moderate.

        I doubt Reason contributors were that stupid. They were actually simply writing propaganda for the regime, as they are paid to do.

    2. notice itsno longer " climate change" or " AGW"

      ...

    3. No, no Ken. Environmentalism is really popular and it would all be OK as long as there aren't subsidies. The problem isn't that we haven't convinced the American public that subsidies are bad, the problem is that we haven't convinced them that protecting the environment at all costs, including but not limited to taxes, tolls, regulations, autonomous regulatory agencies, bans, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, trade agreements, non-binding international agreements, public sector mandates, private sector mandates, and criminal convictions is popular enough to not need them.

  7. OT: https://mobile.twitter.com/NancyTracker/status/1465891574668271617

    On the 1st day of Maxwell’s trial...

    The CEO of twitter resigned
    The CFO of CNBC resigned
    The CFO of Walmart resigned
    The CFO of Goldman Sachs resigned
    Chris Cuomo was fired from CNN

    1. *scratches chin*
      If those were the disposable guys, I wonder who is being protected.

      1. Richard Simmons?

        1. where the fuck is Richard Simmons!?!?!?

          1. Hanging with Carmen Sandiego

          2. Aids Clinic?

      2. I wonder who is being protected.

        The big guy?

    2. maybe they wanted more free time for the holidays?

    3. this is fleeing on Golden Parachutes before Bidenomics crashes the economy.

  8. >>Here's Why.

    CBO lies to the public.

    1. Pols lie to the CBO which willingly uses bad numbers at face value.

      1. even worse.

        1. Yep. An important distinction that these are jot mistakes, but deliberate sleight of hand.

    2. Whattyatalkinabout?

      They've totally stopped referring to themselves as 'the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office'.

  9. Dear, sweet baby Jesus. I am not here to ask for world peace, or secure elections. I know the vileness of man surpasses expectations.
    Instead, I just want Nancy Pelosi tarred and feathered and screeching in the California surf. It's not too much, right?

    1. Tar, Feathers. And her Chinese driver shoving bamboo shoots under her fingernails.

      1. Honestly, painting her nails with "MAGA" would be greater torture.

        1. OHHELLYEAH!

          Bitch. Cant stand her.

  10. It costs $0. Joe Biden said it so it *must* be true.

  11. https://twitter.com/DrewHLive/status/1466190920500465666?t=EHjdN4nIL30lEpjWG5ZN3w&s=19

    ARIZONA: ASU socialists proudly holding “DEATH 2 AMERICA” signs to protest Kyle Rittenhouse attending online classes at the university even though he is no longer enrolled at the school
    [Link]

    1. We’re now Israel without a wall.

    1. Its definition of "manliness" by its very nature rejects moral limits and breeds threats and violence

      Women have an unfettered right to breed, or not, at their own discretion. Men breeding is inherently a crime.

  12. Brandon’s Bolshevik Bingo

  13. Travel Restrictions:

    To stop a virus variant thats ALREADY HERE!

    Jesus Mary and Joseph we have low grade MORONS IN CHARGE.

    This looks like a Three Stooges episode:

    " Idiots on the Loose"

  14. But, But, But... $4.8T is ONLY $37K per working citizen.....

    Gosh; What's the big deal about being the Feds-Slave for one entire year of work out of ten when some good ole' lefty-journalism/green-energy propaganda is at stake... It's obviously for the 'common good' since the 'common people' can't be left to their own means to fund such propaganda... FORCE must be initiated.... It's for the 'common good'.
    /s

    1. $37K per bankrupt person.

      Does that include Illegal aliens?

      1. Of course not; didn't you hear... Illegal aliens get part of the working citizens paycheck.

      2. New ones can just deduct it from their $450k “vote for team blue” welcome basket.

        1. Gimmesummadat!

          I could simulate the economy with 450K.

          I could buy a storage shed to live in

  15. Eh, we can blow 8 trillion in a decade on a military that does little to "protect" us (or at least, the vast majority of that money is wasted on not protecting us) or we can invest in ourselves.

    Pretty easy decision.

    1. Sell your souls to the [WE] foundation; because YOU don't own you, [WE] own you!

    2. The military is actually called for in the constitution.

    3. “…or we can invest in ourselves.”

      Haha. Useful idiot.

    4. Ted: Hey! [camera switch to two couples. One of them is Ted and Brittany.] You guys up for a little game?
      Remer: Sure.
      Ted: Well, let's make it interesting. Say, twenty bucks?
      Coop: [the guys think a moment] How about fifty?
      Ted: You're on! [takes the ball from Remer] Here we go.
      Man: Let's go, here we go.
      Remer: Dude, we don't have fifty bucks.
      Coop: [retorts] We don't have twenty. Dude, it doesn't matter. How good can they be? [Ted and has partner take turns shooting and scoring, dunking, etc. Coop and Remer pay attention] Oh shit. [close-up on their opponents, displaying their talents]

    5. Eh, we can blow 8 trillion in a decade on a military that does little to "protect" us (or at least, the vast majority of that money is wasted on not protecting us) or we can invest in ourselves.

      Or we can waste it on vote buying and massively corrupt deals with big corporations and donors, which is what Biden is actually doing.

  16. ???? ???? behold my shocked and surprised face

    Nobody could see that coming!

  17. Yeah, good thing we don't have to worry about mean tweets anymore.

  18. Only twice? Given past performance, that is very optimistic.

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