Coronavirus

The CDC's Latest Antibody Data Confirm Huge Interstate Differences in COVID-19 Fatality Rates

The findings suggest that people infected in Connecticut were 10 times as likely to die as people infected in Utah or Oregon.

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The latest data from antibody studies conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) across the country confirm that the death rate among Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus varies very widely from one state to another. The CDC's prevalence estimates for August, combined with contemporaneous death counts, suggest that the infection fatality rate (IFR) was at least 10 times higher in Connecticut than in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, or Utah, for example.

The CDC estimated the number of people who had been infected in each state based on antibody screening of blood samples drawn for routine diagnostic tests unrelated to COVID-19. Those patients may not have been representative of the general population, and the number of samples tested was relatively small in most states, leading to wide confidence intervals. Still, the CDC's numbers give us a sense of the gap between confirmed cases and total infections (including cases with mild or no symptoms) in each state. I combined those estimates with the death tolls reported by Worldometer as of August 15 to estimate IFRs.

The estimated IFRs range from less than 0.4 percent in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah to 3.8 percent in Connecticut. Most states (27) had estimated IFRs below 1 percent, although 20 reached or exceeded that threshold. The CDC did not report prevalence estimates for Hawaii, South Dakota, or Wyoming.

Based on data from other countries, the CDC has estimated that the nationwide IFR for the United States is 0.65 percent, although the estimate varies dramatically with age, from 0.003 percent among people 19 or younger to 5.4 percent among people in their 70s. If you look at the 10 states with the biggest populations, you can see that the estimated IFR based on the CDC's prevalence numbers is similar to the CDC's nationwide IFR estimate in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Georgia; lower in California; and higher in New York, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, and Michigan.

The estimated IFR for New York, the state with the highest infection rate, is 0.75 percent. That IFR is somewhat higher than the estimate suggested by an antibody study that the New York State Department of Health conducted in April, when it put statewide infection prevalence at 14 percent, compared to the CDC's estimate of 22.5 percent in August.

Given the uncertainties of extrapolating from the blood samples analyzed by the CDC, which were not randomly drawn from the general population, we should not put too much stock in these state-specific IFR estimates. But the high estimated IFRs for Northeastern states such as Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island are consistent with their high case fatality rates (deaths as a share of confirmed cases). Conversely, the lower IFR estimates for states such as Arkansas, California, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah are consistent with their lower case fatality rates.

Why do COVID-19 patients fare so much worse in some states than others? Possible explanations include age demographics, the prevalence of preexisting medical conditions, the quality and capacity of local health care systems (including the extent to which they are strained by the pandemic), and population density, which not only makes it easier for the virus to move from person to person but may result in larger virus doses and more dangerous infections. Another factor could be the timing of each state's epidemic, since the development of more effective treatments may have improved outcomes for people infected more recently.

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Coronavirus Epidemics Epidemiology CDC

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192 responses to “The CDC's Latest Antibody Data Confirm Huge Interstate Differences in COVID-19 Fatality Rates

    1. Cue calls for mandatory mouthwash rinses every 30 minutes.

      1. Water boarded with mouthwash for noncompliance.

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    2. Lol. But masks still don’t work, right? Just think of a mask as a wall for your mouth, and the virus particles as Mexicans trying to get in, Jesse.

      1. Man, you’ve gone full retard. I dont even speak about border walls retard.

        And the fact that you think a mask is less porous than a liquid chemical is fucking hilarious. Man. You really are fucking dumb.

        Here’s a clue dumbfuck. Poor some water in your mask and see what happens. Wont even get into the fact that listening is made to kill germs.

        Fuck, you’re dumber than JFree.

        1. Listerine* (and other mouthwashes)

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      2. By the way chipper. Let’s see you rationalize this away. Infection rates over time along with measures taken. Show the correlation of masks to powered infections. I’ll wait.

        https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/

        Just admit youre an authoritarian like all the other leftitarians here.

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      3. “Mexicans trying to get in”

        So, like your mouth then.

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      4. “Lol.”
        Grow up.

        “But masks still don’t work, right?”
        Gee, I guess they only work in some states, right, you fucking ignoramus?

      5. nice conclusion, but very poor analogy.

        No, the maskes DO NOT WORK and CANNOT. But its more like portioins of the border far away from highways, where IF there even is a fence, its three strand barbed wire, a third of the poses rotten and fallen over, and at least one strand rusted through at any given point along the fence. NOW imagine the hordes crossing through. THAT isfar closer.

        Some have compared the stupid worthless blue paper masks with trying to keep the mosquitos out of yoru house with chain link fence “coverings” over all the windows, which are wide open.

        And mouthwash MIGHT kill or weaken SOME of the virus partictles that MIGHT happen to be in your mouth, stuck to the surfaces in there having been trapped in saliva and phlegm. It does naught for the virus particles that enter through the nose and drop right into the liungs, or hang out up in your sinus cavities. Nor does it do anything to the ones that might get stuck to the fibres of your mask waiting to be re-breathed back into your body

        Masks, unsocial distance keeping, handwashing, hand scamitiser,

        The best way by far to assure you do NOT develop symptoms WHEN (because you WILL) you happen to be exposed to the virus is to take your supplements as recommended T everyone to be healthy. Simple mostly readily availabl,e quite cheap. Less than a buck a day if yuo buy them right. I’m not going to “give medical advice” on how much of what to take…. but it is readily availble. All off the shelf noot restricted common supplements. Some are hard to find because they WORK and we who know they do are buying them to keep ourselves healthy. I have good reason to believe I had it last spring and ditd not even know it, no symptoms, or mild and generic enough I just figured it was standard winter viral respiratory, vert mild, never lost a day’s work. And I KNOEW I was infected by some friends when I picked them up from the airport , we spent ssveral hours together in the same smallish car then more hours together at their house. He teested positive two days later, and gotten it from family member when visiting whith his own family. I ever had ay symptoms, he had only mild ones that made no sense until his positive blood test. COVID? Meh……..

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    4. Is no one going to mention treatment with hydroxychloroquine and zinc?
      We are using it in my suburban Fort Lauderdale Hospital, and I’m very pleased with the results in early disease.
      So states where treatment with hydroxychloroquine is commonly used will likely have much lower death rates.
      We are using remdesivir more severe cases and I have not been impressed with the results at all.
      We are using convalescent plasma for cases in the ICU and that seems to be the best treatment of all.

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  2. I was against masks and border closings early in the rona demic because I was out shilling for black votes. Now I’m just against anything Trump says no matter how good it is. – Joe Biden

    1. Trump is responsible for more covid deaths than any human alive.

      1. I didn’t know he was responsible for any human alive, so not surprising.

      2. Yup! You said it, Tony! That’s no lie.

      3. Gov. Andrew Cuomo is responsible for more covid deaths than any human alive.
        Gov. Phil Murphy is second.
        Democrat kill Americans.

        1. Two thirds of the 8,533 Covid deaths in PA occurred in nursing homes, which Gov Wolf similarly ordered to admit Covid patients from hospitals (and were sources of some/many outbreaks).

        2. Gov. Covid Cuomo the Senior Slayer.

      4. Wow, Tony. Blaming the President for a pandemic from another country. Odd.

        1. Odd? Odd is treating a virus like a foreign invader. It’s like you’ve taken the conservatives lizard brain and turned it up to maximum stupid.

          Trump’s job is to manage the problem we have. He doesn’t just get to whine about it and do nothing.

          1. Actually, it wasn’t his job to manage the virus. Believe it or not, he was adhering to the constitution (surprising the heck out of me and millions of others), by leaving it up to individual governors. I don’t know how people can blame him for something that was left to each governor to do. I think that, if left up to him, he would have made the right decision. But, I wouldn’t have wanted him to release edicts from D.C..

      5. Do you ever get tired of spewing such partisan hackery? I mean, is there ever a time your conscience just feels gross for such gaslighting and distortion?

        1. Trump is the single human responsible for the most covid deaths. It’s just a fact. He doesn’t get to have maskless rallies and give up on any pretense of working on the problem (because he’s bored of it) and then get a pass. You wouldn’t give it to him if he had a (D) after his name, and you damn well know it.

          1. Of course I would’ve given him a pass if he was a democrat because I operate in reality and not on tribal instinct. Trump’s messaging could’ve been better, but his governmental response was fine. You can’t look across the globe and think there was really anything else that could’ve been done outside of draconian actions that would have been illegal and politically unsupportable. And even then, still wouldn’t have made much difference.

            1. ” draconian actions that would have been illegal and politically unsupportable”

              Which are exactly the things Biden says he would have done had he been in charge. Authoritarian much Joe?

              Not to mention, that if Trump had done exactly all the things Biden says he would have done–things he demands that Trump should have done–Nancy would be impeaching Trump again for abuse of power. And the very same people demanding mandatory masks now would have been fighting tooth and nail because Trump did it.

      6. Look, the Russian troll.

  3. Or it’s testing disparity…

    1. Well, it might be a disparity between dying “with” the ‘rona and dying “from” the ‘rona.

  4. Ok, I fell alseep for five minutes, what’s the difference between IFR and CFR?

    Does IFR simply say, you died while testing positive for COVID, vs CFR which is COVID caused you to die?

    1. Estimated vs confirmed.

      1. Estimated is against the total estimated infections, guess work. They try to use generic antibody test rates to estimate. More than half the people who get covid won’t test for it.

        1. Plus, they seem to fade at different rates. This far into it, there will be a large percentage that have been infected that no longer have antibodies.

          1. The immune system has some memory. You don’t need active antibodies to respond quickly to another instance of the virus.

            1. No, but you need them to test for them. I wonder how accurate the antibody data is this far into the spread.

    2. IFR means you are qualified to fly at night, CFR means your cat has to be at the controls at night.

      1. Damn; that makes sense.

      2. Instrument flight rules (IFR) means you can fly in low visibility and the absence of daylight is not a related factor, there of. Visual flight reference (VFR – basic private pilot rating), for instance, can fly at night.

        1. You’re mostly right about CFR, though. If you are deemed to have poor night vision, an approved house cat (laid out in the FAR) can and should be used to aid in night landings in the absence of a qualified human co-pilot. Cats, however, are held to even stricter standards than man when it comes to BAC. Pilots must be below a .04, whereas cats can have no trace of BAC. Seems arbitrary, but I don’t make the rules.

          Kudos, btw. Not many people read that deep in the regs.

          1. The more you know.

          2. Toonces is vindicared

  5. Or maybe that some of the states killed their own people? How does that chart stack up?

    Hint: The states that killed their own people did the worst.

    1. Indeed. You can’t talk about deaths in some states without mentioning the nursing homes fiasco that distorted the picture.

      1. Even with all the elderly deaths in the USA claimed to be from Kungflu, 650,000 Americans die every year from heart disease.

        After 8 months and inflated numbers only 220k Americans have died while infected with wuhanvirus.

        1. 650 THOUSAND!? Oh my god! We need mandatory blood pressure screenings at the grocery store, and a ban on all foods with greater than 5% daily fat allowance per serving (except those foods given a special exemption, natch), and prohibit the use of chairs in public places!

          1. It isn’t for lack of trying by busibodies like Bloomberg.

            1. “At least Bloomberg is trying to save lives, unlike Trump who is responsible for all of those deaths due to heart disease.” – Tony

              1. Just wait until Tony gets a look at how many people doctors and nurses kill EVERY year…yikes…

        2. You failed to mention that the 650,000 heart disease deaths happen after years or decades of disease triggers while the 220,000 virus deaths happen within a month of infection.

    2. Cuomo is blaming Trump now for all the New York COVID-19 deaths. What happened to the buck stops at the governor’s mansion? A real leader would ignore the supposed clown in DC and protect his own state.

      1. A real clown president would protect his country.

        1. …with powers he does not have.

          True, Trump could have said “Hey, don’t put COVID patients in nursing homes” but he would’ve been accused of calling governors fucking morons because who would do something that fucking stupid, amirite?

          1. The same talking point after 9 months and while New York is recovering as red states are burning. Did Cuomo come to red states and force them to do something they didn’t want to do?

            1. So you admit, the case and fatality rate were almost assuredly unavoidable.

              Do you really think Texas and Idaho are going to catch up to Connecticut and Massacheusetts’s levels of death and destruction at the hands of their incompetent DEMOCRAT leaders?

              Europe is also starting to burn again. Did Trump suddenly depose Merkel, Macron, and Sanchez? Explain why Europe’s totals now exceed both North AND South America’s independent totals…that’s Trump too, right?

        2. So, you want a king? Should Trump have welded people into their houses? What should he have done that was legal for him to do and would have been politically acceptable?

          I love all the complaining of Trump, but I never actually see anyone explaining what he could’ve done better outside of being a better cheerleader. And yes, Trump’s morale leadership on this was shoddy, but his policy and governmental implementation strategy was fairly good.

          1. He’s holding rallies with thousands of people, encouraged mask skepticism, and acted as if his recovery from covid meant the whole problem was nearing an end. He has done worse than a bad job. He has done the worst possible job imaginable and added extra stupid and malice on top of it.

            I could have told you he was not competent before he set foot in the Oval Office. I probably did.

            1. Except his rallies are not resulting in spreading events. And yeah, he hasn’t been a mask Nazi, but a lot of mask wearing is performative political art and not actually beneficial.

              You really need to understand that COVID is a virus. It is not under the control of the president of the United States and that there is some level of having to live with the disease.

              People like you who see doom and gloom around every corner are just perverted at this point.

            2. So holding rallies – where people voluntarily attend – is worse than governors forcing vulnerable elderly people into cesspool nursing homes?

              Criticize Trump all you want but my god, have some standards above “my team good, your team Nazis.”

            3. The bot never dies.

              1. So true.

            4. He’s holding “mostly peaceful protests”. Which as we all know now are immune from COVID spreading, the doctors told us that!

            5. And YET, the places worst hit are NOT places with large percentages of Trump supporters and MOST deaths that occurred had NO chronological relationship with his rallies.

              You know what DID have a chronological relationship with increased cases? Violent racial supremacist organizations flooding the streets.

    3. NY, the most egregious example, is actually in the lower third this chart; NJ, another bad one, is also on the lower side. So, not a direct correlation.

      This is further evidence that NY’s epidemic is kaput and has been for months – it’s highly unlikely that they’ll see any impactful outbreaks for quite a while, at least downstate. That won’t stop DeBlasio and Cuomo from fighting over who gets to build the new barn to house all the horses that got out, though.

  6. What’s the nursing home death rate in states with high IFR? There’s where you might find the root cause.

    1. NH (81%), RI (78%) and CT (72%) have had the highest rates of Covid deaths at nursing homes (and have the top three IFR according to Jacob Sullum’s chart above).
      https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/

      But while 67% of PA Covid deaths have been at nursing homes, Sullum’s chart lists PA’s IFR below the national average.

  7. Any chance these numbers correlate with the states that sent Covid patients to nursing homes to recover. Also, if antibodies can only be detected for a certain period, will these numbers vary at least partially due to timing of the outbreaks?

    1. So we agree, nursing homes had something to do with it, and lots of people aren’t reading previous comments.

      1. In forests, invasive beetles and viruses go from tree to tree. If the forest is mono-culture there are no uninviting species of trees to slow down the virus or beetle.

        Same thing with old folks homes and this virus. There are no kids or young adults to slow the virus down. The virus is spread from one over 65 person to another right near them.

        Add in multiple preexisting conditions and old people die.

        Plus, old people die from one thing or another. Its what they do.

        1. That is a good thought, not the everyone is old in an old folk’s home but mono culture…does that have correlation. Most of the states with high IFR’s, what is there percentage of recent immigration from worldwide sources and of those sources is there a nation of origin that shows less resistance to the virus. My state of Texas that has a medium to low number has a high percentage of recent immigrant population from outside the US, and although there is a large Latin American population we also have many from Asia, the Middle East etc. California has a similar immigrant population. I am going to go out on a limb and guess Connecticut does not have a similar population. Could exposure to a larger variety of infectious diseases give your population a better chance even against a novel virus?

        2. The monoculture argument doesn’t really work with SARS-CoV-2.

          Emerald ash borers live/feed/breed almost (if not, there is some debate) exclusively in ash trees. If there are no ash trees close enough, the ash borers can’t spread (without human or animal intervention).

          Humans are all the same species. Just because young people are VERY unlikely to die, doesn’t mean they don’t act as a vector for the ‘rona. The young are just as “attractive” (if not more so, since the young vectors don’t die prematurely from the virus’s perspective) to the virus as old folks. Humans can still harbor the virus, young people don’t act as a “buffer” to slow down the virus.

          Now, if old folks homes were administered by elves or orcs, the virus may not spread to them, and they could act as buffers.

          1. What you’re missing is that children and young adults (u30) can catch covid but have difficulty spreading it. The virus doesn’t replicate in significant amounts in their bodies and they don’t “shed” it in any significant way.

            Under 10, there’s an R of nearly zero spread. Under 20, it’s an R half of 1.

            So while you can have high school and college yokels catching it, few spread it, and of them, they’re not spreading an virulent form of the virus because their viral load is so low.

            Far different from the 65+ population. They catch it easily, build high viral loads, shed a lot of it, act as “super” spreaders, and come down with more severe illnesses.

            So all humans are NOT equal with this disease.

      2. Why the hell would we read the comments?
        We are just here to show our with, and virtue signal.

        (oh, yes; and troll the rev)

        1. Edit feature engaged:
          delete “with”
          Insert “wit”
          End edit feature

  8. I think Jacob is probably the best reporter Reason has at the moment, his TDS notwithstanding. And I get it that he likes crunching numbers and splitting hairs. As an academic exercise I have no problem with that. But from a libertarian perspective there is only one overriding issue. Billions of people worldwide have been deprived of their livelihoods and liberty by this historically inconsequential disease. It is a dystopian nightmare brought to you by the progressive TOP MAN fallacy. The damage done to a relative handful of mostly elderly people who actually died from this disease will be forgotten in a couple of years. The damage done by the experts and tyrants will last for generations. Covid-19 is a seasonal flu that poses a greater than average risk to a tiny minority of the earth’s population. All of the charts and graphs in the world cannot change that reality

    1. This.

      And sadly they’re only doubling down. We just have to hope the virus continues to behave in this manner to the point they can no longer deny it.

      Or more and more doctors start to speak out.

      https://www.hamiltonnews.com/news-story/10224993-hamilton-s-medical-officer-of-health-dr-elizabeth-richardson-says-public-should-get-used-to-living-in-a-covid-19-world/

    2. It is one of the 4 or 5 worst viral outbreaks of the past century. But the economic impact was astronomically the worst due to the overreaction.

      1. But the US underreacted compared to other countries whose economies are recovering. It continues to underreact at Trump’s behest, because he’s bored of covid.

        1. Fuck off troll.

          1. No, fuck you. Every American is suffering because the president is a ridiculous traitorous imbecile. Nobody forced you to fall in love with that fat, orange sack of shit. Anyone who supports him is a fucking rube. I’m stating obvious things. If you can’t admit to the mistake of electing this man president, you are a weak person. You are clutching onto that (R) or his hysterical whiny nonsense like a fucking baby. Stop ruining my country because you are stupid. Just stop it.

            1. Fuck off troll.

            2. Ain’t YOUR country, you dumbass Oklahoma hick. You don’t own the whole thing, thank God.

    3. The damage was done by China.

      1. China’s economy is already in recovery.

        1. Fuck off troll.

        2. That’s because they let everyone go back to work.

        3. China? lol… Ya, they never lie…

          1. The company I work for is only making money in China right now.

            1. Oh, this explains your love affair with China.

              And yeah, if your company is only able to make money in China right now, your company may need to do better.

        4. Always impressive when people have to resort to China as their example of doing well with COVID. Shows they actually don’t have an argument.

          1. Why? I would point to the US as a success if it weren’t the worst failure in the world instead.

            1. I guess you haven’t looked at the numbers real carefully. The rest of the world is struggling too. But I get it, you are so bent on hating Trump, reality just isn’t in the cards for you.

              But keep going on and telling me how China’s response was better. You know, the concentration camp, murdering, welding people into their houses, tight control on all information country is better than the US.

              You are so broken, it’s actually comical at this point.

              1. It seems logical that an authoritarian state would be able to control the spread of a virus better. That’s not an endorsement of their system of government.

                Nobody on the goddamn planet thinks Trump has done anything but shit the bed in the most ridiculously cosmic way possible, except members of his cult. I am not the one with the emotional problem over Trump. It’s people who can’t see a fat orange failure when he’s having a goddamn meltdown in front of them. Don’t elect an insane clown president next time. Stop blaming other people for your stupidity.

                1. Wow, I’m impressed that you could write that hysteric second paragraph and include the phrase “I am not the one with the emotional problem over Trump” without bursting into hypocritical flames.

                2. That’s a lot of things to say, with a Chinese boot in your mouth.

                3. May I suggest a visit to The Economist or, perhaps, Reuters for information about the global impact of the virus? Neither of these fine news organizations is a shill for either Trump or China.

            2. [He says as European rates are currently blasting the continent into orbit]

  9. IFR is statistically irrelevant at this point because of both the huge well-known disparity in fatality rate by age and the miniscule seropositive rate. Until they can collect large enough samples – and reasonably random samples at that not ‘people in hospital for whatever reason’ – by state – to age-adjust then ignore all secondary/tertiary calcs.

    But shame on you Sullum for not focusing on the glaringly obvious seroprevalence info that has finally been made public. That we are a long long long way from herd immunity. Meaning we are a long long way from seeing the ultimate death count here. Even NY only has 23% seropositive – only three (NY, NJ, LA) states are over 10% – and some states are well under 2%.

    1. Chicken little is back with more fear mongering! Ignoring new estimates putting needed herd immunity in the 20-30 range huh?

      Some researchers even suggested the figure may be in the range of 10 to 20 percent,

      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

      Of you want to continue to cower under your filthy bed go ahead. Its been a couple of weeks for no covid deaths in Sweden. Or near zero. While most of Europe is fighting a resurgence.

      But you’re not a libertarian. You want to lock 330 million people down for an increase of 6% to the excess death rate that is still trending down.

      1. Im not a libertarian. I’m a classical liberal. You’re not a libertarian either. You’re just some R shill who likes poisoning what ‘libertarians’ believe by pretending that its just R.

        And like pretty much everyone in the US, you don’t have the slightest interest or clue in the disease itself or the response to it. Only in how something can be spun in DeRpland

        1. Lol. You’re not a classical liberal either. You seek to control how others act because you think they owe you an extremely small increase in youre perceived security. You also don’t question your initial assumptions making you far from a classical liberal.

          My interest is in human freedom, not shutting people down out of fear like yourself.

          1. By the way, all you leftists here always state anyone who disagrees with you is an R. Another example of you not being a classical liberal as you dont argue in good faith. Bet you get butthurt someone called you a leftist too. But you’re actually just an authoritarian who seeks to condemn others for any negative outcome you may achieve.

            1. So much cry

              1. As Shreek is mad!

              2. Such a weird expression of your obsession. It’s time for that lobotomy squirrel.

        2. Whatever, JSerf.

        3. “I’m a classical liberal”

          Sure Shreek.

        4. JFree
          October.20.2020 at 9:09 pm
          “Im not a libertarian. I’m a classical liberal…”

          You’re nothing of the sort, shitstain. You’re a cowardly piece of lefty shit who should have the pole of your PANIC!!!! flag jammed up your ass along with a rusty, running chain-saw.
          Make your family proud, the world a better place and your dog happy; fuck off and die where your stink won’t bother decent people.

          1. You need new material.

            1. He does, but the bit about the dog WAS new.

    2. Can’t hide under your bed forever.

  10. These comparisons are worthless (or worse) if they do not account for confounding factors such as age or pre-existing comorbidities.

    1. Well, yes. First you see there are big disparities between states, then look for why.

      They listed a number of possibilities.

      1. Then you realize that all 50 states have Trump in common and you realize the reason the bad states have done poorly can’t also be the reason the good (or at least not so bad) states have done better…or vice versa.

        But Tony is blind and/or stupid, so he, like many others can’t understand that…

  11. What conclusions can be drawn from this statistic? In my town, the first 50 covid cases produced 4 deaths. The next 90 cases have produced zero deaths. Is the virus weakening? Did Gov. Wolf’s measures to shut down non-essential business work to save lives?
    Can we re-open based on assumption that all the really vulnerable folks have already died from it? Were there really, say, 300 cases that produced those 4 deaths and the original tests were less sensitive? Millions of lives and trillions of dollars are being impacted and while we wait for answers instead of more speculation (or magical solutions from Joe Biden).

    1. Whenever I think about these retarded measures Newman ruling of cutting the bike in half sticks out in my mind.

      1. Newman’s ruling.

        1. No, Newman’s dressing.

          First dress, then rule.

          1. The emperor has no clothes!

    2. It’s possible the four deaths weren’t actually caused by COVID but were instead a mere positive test at time of death.

    3. My little town has had 135 confirmed cases and no deaths that I know of.

  12. I’m almost at the breaking point. Everyday, I get a little bit madder. “Land of the Free and Home of the Brave”, my ass. That’s it. Harris Biden will be elected, the Anti-Racist program will be reintroduced into the Federal government, with vengeance, the 1619 Project will be funded by the Department of Education, cats and dogs will be sleeping together, and China will sell us our 5G.
    Will the last citizen please turn out the lights?

    1. The riots are scheduled to begin the day after the election, without even bothering to wait for the results.
      Join in!

      Welcome to the revolution!

      https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/20/trump-resistance-plans-mass-mobilization-after-election-to-shut-down-the-country-if-biden-doesnt-win/

      1. Now I want Trump to win. Thanks, Democrats! >:(

      2. ..and to think Johnson & Johnson running around telling everyone the side-effect of their pain-relief medicine just might be pain-relief is a “Public Nuisance” to the tune of $465M.

        Where’s that Oklahoma Judge when you need him.

    2. Same here. Let’s pile on:

      https://www.henrymakow.com

  13. Key point is that even with inflated Kungflu death numbers, this virus kills less than 1% of those infected and infection rates are less than 10% of those exposed to the virus.

    Its a Lefty hysteria ploy to nuke the economy and scare people into Socialist governments “protecting” you. Eventhough more people die in states and regions with lockdowns than those places that never locked down, like Sweden and the state of Georgia.

    Lefties and their propagandists cant fudge the numbers to suit their lie so they are moving goalposts.

    1. Eventhough more people die in states and regions with lockdowns

      And that’s looking strictly at the COVID numbers. There’s boatloads of evidence that the lockdowns and related effects have caused more deaths than if they hadn’t been implemented. Sullum’s looking at the P/L of the COVID division while, without question, P/L for all of public health is in the red because of the COVID division.

  14. Has Reason written anything about the Biden scandals besides hand waving about the censorship of relevant news articles?

    1. Nope. Reason Koch liberaltarians want Biden elected despite his corruption and perverse family. Open borders, no tariffs, and also this mag is probably owned by Chicoms.

      1. Considering Biden jumps in the polls every time some evil Republican asshole tries to get America to make fun of Biden for having a drug-addict as a son, as if most of us were terrible lying psychopaths like they are, maybe they’re trying to help Trump.

        1. > Considering Biden jumps in the polls every time some evil Republican asshole tries to get America to make fun of Biden for having a drug-addict as a son

          Nobody is making fun of Biden’s drug addict son. According to Mairead McArdle of Yahoo News, “Hunter Biden entered into a consulting contract with China’s largest private energy company that initially earned him $10 million a year “for introductions alone,” according to leaked emails.”
          Do you understand what is happening dummy? People are outraged at Joe Biden’s corruption and how flagrantly he engaged in it. The fact that his son is an addict is just an example of his failure as a father. Btw, who would run a get-rich-quick scheme with a crackhead as an accomplice? The same guy you want to be president. But cry some more for Hunter you bitch.

          1. Biden did the exact opposite thing to Burisma he would do if he were acting corruptly. There is a reason even reporters at the NY Post won’t put a byline on this story. There’s a reason even Trump’s justice department isn’t charging anyone with a crime. This is a desperate attempt by Trump to relive the glory days of the Comey letter. And it’s even more of a nothingburger than that was. And it’s not helping Trump in the polls because people care more about the death and economic calamity than they do a phony horseshit desperate scandal. Be more skeptical of clowns.

            1. That’s bullshit. Biden was just trying to look like a big man by taking credit for the Obama administration tactic. Besides, if they wanted the Ukraine prosecutor to stop dragging his feet, why didn’t anything change after he was fired?
              What was the billion dollars for anyway?

    2. Reason never covers Russian disinformation.

    3. Not at all. Reason has decided that a son of a VP making money off his dad’s office and cutting his dad in on the loot, and the corrupt happenings of a deep state under the authority of a sitting administration attempting to eliminate an electoral opponent are not worthy of discussion.

      But I can’t blame them, they still get their daily memo from the cool kids at the journalisming departments at big media, so they still have to tow the line.

  15. Maybe a different strain hit the Northeast. I would say people in the West get more sunshine and have better immune systems, but that wouldn’t apply in Oregon. And Washington state was hit first, but has a pretty low IFR.

    1. There are definitely different strains and mutations. Here’s a blog post from Library of Congress that mapped those mutations a few months ago. West Coast (then) was almost entirely a strain from Wuhan that had morphed once and that particular morph (common only in Pacific US and Australia – not actually very common in Wuhan which was a separate morph) was not very fatal. The East Coast was two strains that originated in Italy and Germany (both which morphed from Singapore and from China) which was both more contagious and more deadly. There was even a cool US map that showed the different prevalence in different places as pie charts but I can’t seem to find it.

      Obviously there have been many more mutations since April.

    2. Isn’t it funny that multiple doctors have pointed out that vitamin D, zinc, and sun exposure (cheap things that DON’T involve authoritarianism) and yet, NONE of those things were/are pursued by government officials BEFORE shutting down the economy and all but locking people in their homes?

  16. California COVID crisis dueling nazis update: Gov. Newsom finally said he would let pro sports have fans again in counties in the lower color tiers (49ers in Santa Clara County okay for 14K fans, both LA teams SOL). But then the Santa Clara health nazis said sorry gov’nuh, we don’t want no stinkin’ super-spreader event in our almost new stadium, or anyone to work there or to maybe enjoy a game, with minimal risk sitting outside, like fans in most of the rest of the country.

    1. All bow to emperor Nesom!

    2. At least some Dodger fans were allowed to attend the first game of the World Series last night, but only because the game was played in Texas, with a Republican Governor.

      1. And it was a home game for LA.

  17. “the CDC has estimated that the nationwide IFR for the United States is 0.65 percent, although the estimate varies dramatically with age, from 0.003 percent among people 19 or younger to 5.4 percent among people in their 70s.”

    Most of the difference in IFR between states is likely due to the difference in median age of those testing positive for Covid.

    Back in March and April, the median age for those testing positive for Covid here in PA was above 60, while the median age plummeted to the 30s during the July and August, and has subsequently increased into to the 40s.

    1. The median age of Covid cases was much higher in Northeastern states back in March-May than it has been in the South, West and Midwest since July.

      1. Other key factors in determining the IFR of each state is the number of tests that were performed, and the percentage of tests that were positive.

        The IFR is reduced every time an asymptomatic person under the age of 60 is tested.

        1. Correction: The IFR is reduced every time an asymptomatic person under the age of 60 tests positive for Covid.

          1. NH (81%), RI (78%) and CT (72%) have had the highest rates of Covid deaths at nursing homes (and have the top three IFR according to Jacob Sullum’s chart above).
            https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/

            But while 67% of PA Covid deaths have been at nursing homes, Sullum’s chart lists PA’s IFR below the national average.

      2. Because back then we were only testing the very sick. Younger people don’t get sick enough to be tested under those conditions. It’s only when we’re going crazy looking for “cases” of people who aren’t sick that we are finding them.

        But young people have always been there, getting it and getting over it without a peep.

  18. Look at that tall cluster of bars in New England: Conn., Mass., Maine, R.I., N.H. Not so much Vermont, but still fairly well up there.

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  21. Another factor could be the timing of each state’s epidemic, since the development of more effective treatments may have improved outcomes for people infected more recently

    This should have been the starting point for the numerical analysis. Take a current time slice, perhaps Aug 1 to Oct 1, by which point treatment options were better known, and nursing home issues were known and (better) controlled.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight about which state has lower IFR, but let’s at least clear out the easy to deal with variables.

    1. This should have been the starting point for the numerical analysis. Take a current time slice, perhaps Aug 1 to Oct 1, by which point treatment options were better known, and nursing home issues were known and (better) controlled.

      Slight disageement. This is quibbling about a statistical win/loss in an infinite game that cannot be effectively won/lost. COVID and flu (and disease) is/will be endemic and it won’t kill every last human. The only way to lose is to run out of resources and drop out. If, in your effort to eradicate COVID, you fire all the healthcare workers, lock down your schools and borders, and incidentally kill off everyone over 65, even if you’ve effectively defeated COVID, you’re still going to be compelled to drop out.

  22. If it were about age demographics and preexisting conditions, then I’d certainly expect Florida to have one of the worst IFRs.

    1. That assumes all other things are equal. We already know Florida handled hospitalized elderly different than New York and New Jersey – both forced skilled nursing facilities to re-admit COVID positives.

      There are plenty of retirees in other states as well. Stereotypes are not science.

  23. I’d like to bring up another point that was completely ignored in the Spring and which is now coming home to roost: the industry second hardest hit by layoffs, furloughs, and downsizing is healthcare.

    So, now that masks and lockdowns have demonstrated that they don’t work, we’re facing ‘spiking’ with even fewer healthcare workers than we had before. The dead aren’t predominantly or even exceptionally populated by healthcare workers so, government intervention effectively pushed healthcare either out of employment or to at-home employment at a time when we it knew/presumed we would need them the most.

    This is single-payer, government-managed healthcare. It should surprise no-one that, when all is said and done, public health departments across the country have directly cost lives (even outside assisted-living communities) and the lives they’re writing into the black as ‘saved’, are fictitiously overestimated.

  24. Yet more irrefutable proof that Basement Bunker Biden is correct to impose nation-wide mask mandates.

    1. If a mask is your biggest problem right now, you are one of the lucky ones.

      My god how did the party of Reagan turn into such a never-ending pity party? Dear god the whining.

      1. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate you adding some dissonance to the echo chamber but could you try not to contradict yourself so much?

  25. Shame you don’t discuss the timing of the relative outbreaks and the likelihood of seasonal factors. CT/NY/NJ were hit in very early spring, which people were coming off the winter doldrums with limited exercise and sun exposure. And in March, they all starting hiding inside even more.

    Subsequent states peaked in Jun, July, and some are peaking now, when people were outside, playing sports, having BBQs, etc. More exercise, more sun exposure. Vitamin D, lower inflammatory responses?

    Would seem to be a very simple analysis to do, to track the IFR relative to month and much more useful then random handwaving.

    1. There have already been studies dealing with Vitamin D and COVID. They’re easy enough to find on Google. I’ve read enough that I started taking Vitamin D supplements.

      1. yes, I know. but Jacob apparently can’t be bothered

  26. Given that we are theoretically a libertarian site, I feel like covid criticism is begging the question. We underreacted because we underreacted…but why was our reaction an underreaction? Aren’t most of the proposed mandates and measures completely antithetical to our libertarian principles? Haven’t many of the most egregious restrictions already been declared unconstitutional by our courts? The founding fathers didn’t say “torch the rulebook if there’s a pandemic” (nor did they use this logic with regards to any sort of issue that the modern left uses to claim the Constitution is outdated) and they had a far lesser capacity to combat pandemics than we do today.

    1. The founding fathers didn’t say “torch the rulebook if there’s a pandemic”

      Violent deaths on the battlefield were a minority of the casualties during the Revolutionary War. The ratio of soldiers who died of disease and/or exposure to those who died as the result of violence is something like 4:1. The FF wrote the rule book under and largely because of conditions far worse than what we experience today.

      1. Most deaths in wartime are unrelated to actual combatant deaths on the field…

  27. NH (81%), RI (78%) and CT (72%) have had the highest rates of Covid deaths at nursing homes (and also have the top three IFR according to Jacob Sullum’s chart above).
    https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/

    But while 67% of PA Covid deaths have been at nursing homes, Sullum’s chart lists PA’s IFR below the national average.

    Still looking for state data on median age for Covid deaths, as that too is likely to consistent with Sullum’s IFR chart above.

    1. The numbers are off, because they define nursing home deaths differently.

      Some states don’t count it as a nursing home death, if the nursing home sends the patient to a hospital to receive treatment resulting in death.

      Definitions matter when comparing results.

      Others count a nursing home death for anyone who dies within 2 weeks of leaving a nursing home for any reason, even if they went to their normal residence and fall down the steps.

  28. Or, some states are less shy about “fluffing” the covid death counts since federal $ flow more heavily to those hospitals that treat “covid patients”…

  29. Like politics, all statistics are local. The media likes to tell us that black and brown people are more at risk to Covid because if injustice. They use statewide population demographics to “prove” minorities are X% more to get Covid and die because white folk make up 56% of the population but only 32% of Covid deaths. Meanwhile they explain that Hispanic or Latinos make up 19% of the population but account for 27% of the deaths and Black or African Americans make up only 14% of the population but 25% of the Covid deaths. Sure starting to look like Covid is racist, doesn’t it?

    The problem with that claim is that when you have a large state like NY which has very local concentrations of Covid cases it may be advantageous to look at the population demographics of each local. Does anyone want to hazard a guess at what demographics of NYC, where Covid hit particularly hard, look like? Would it surprise anyone to find that it breaks down as :
    Black – 26%, Latinos – 29%, Whites -33%.
    In short, the Covid race/ethnicity statistics are almost a perfect match for NYC demographics. Of course that should come as no surprise but nobody in the media wants to say that because it would go against the narrative of white suppression. Narrative is truth and facts are inconvenient.

    1. Yes correct

  30. Or, at least, being in Connecticut is LIKE being dead, so they just include those numbers.

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  34. I keep reading that Trump has done poorly in dealing with C19. What, exactly, should he have done differently? Is he responsible for the European deaths too? What will Biden do differently?

    Is the appropriate response to the disease a complete shutdown of the world economy? If our leaders force us to shut down the world economy (even further), won’t starvation and poverty be harmful? Are the economic impacts of a universal shutdown irrelevant? What about the psychological impacts of idle hands?

    If Biden wins his senatorial bid against Bush, will we be better off?

  35. Here is a suggestion for the CDC, WHO, etc:

    Perform antibody tests for C19 against the specimens submitted to 23andMe, Ancestry, DNA sites submitted after December, 2019 to get a more accurate estimate of actual C19 infections. These sites already have saliva samples. I am sure that is somehow racist in today’s America.

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  37. Certainly it doesn’t help to be among the first states that were hit with a high case rate. We have better protocols and treatments now.

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