Climate Change

How Much Will the Planet Warm If Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Doubles?

A doubling of carbon dioxide all but guarantees warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius, says a new study.

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The hopeful prospect that doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might yield a relatively mild increase in global average temperatures is unlikely, according to a comprehensive new study.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is conventionally defined as the increase in Earth's average surface temperature that would occur if carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were doubled and the climate system was given enough time to reach an equilibrium state. Scientific American once called it "the most important number in climate change."

First, let's consider where the planet's climate stands right now. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from the pre-industrial level about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 415 ppm today. The additional carbon dioxide has been added largely due to humanity's burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, along with plowing down forests. According to ice core data, today's carbon dioxide levels are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years, and more recent research suggests that the current level is the highest it's been in the past 23 million years. Average global temperatures are currently about 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.

In 1979, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences conjectured that ECS was probably somewhere between 1.5°C and 4.5°C per doubling of CO2. In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that ECS is likely to be between 1.5°C and 4.5°C. In other words, the best estimate of sensitivity remained basically the same more than three decades later.

The new study narrows the range of the probable temperature increase. With doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the eventual warming would probably be between 2.6°C and 3.9°C. There would be less than 5 percent chance of staying below 2°C—and a 6 to 18 percent chance of exceeding 4.5°C.

Their evidence stems, in part, from a better understanding of the atmospheric feedback processes. The researchers evaluated the evidence for how changes in carbon dioxide, water vapor, surface reflectivity, and, most importantly, cloud cover affect global temperature trends. One of the greatest uncertainties with respect to future global temperature trends has been whether changes in clouds will tend to cool the planet. The researchers conclude that warming-induced changes in clouds will tend to boost rather than moderate future temperatures.

They also argue that the empirical data for historical warming of 1.2°C over the past century or so suggests that an ECS of 1.5°C is implausible. And as a third line of evidence, they looked deeper into prehistoric climates, including the succession of ice ages and the mid-Pliocene warm period, to see how changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels correlated with changes in global average temperatures. In the depths of the ice ages, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide was just below 200 ppm; global temperatures were between 3°C to 7°C lower than the pre-industrial average.

During the mid-Pliocene warm period, carbon dioxide levels hovered around 400 ppm and average global temperature was 1°C to 5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Sea level was 20 to 30 meters higher than now, indicating significant reductions in Antarctic glacial ice. The paleoclimate data, they conclude, suggests the ECS is likely to fall within 1.5°C to 5°C, with highest likelihood around 2.5°C.

The researchers integrate the data from these three strands of evidence to find that the earlier lower-bound estimate of a 1.5°C ECS is improbable. Cloud feedbacks will not likely cool temperatures, historical temperature increases are already approaching the lower bound, and mid-Pliocene warming that was higher than now occurred with lower levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. On the other hand, both historical and paleoclimate evidence suggest that an ECS greater than 4.5°C is also unlikely. The researchers conclude that there is a 66 percent chance that the ECS is  2.6°C to 3.9°C; they offer a broader 2.3°C to 4.5°C range to cautiously account for alternative views, assumptions, and unknown unknowns.

If the current annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide of 2.3 ppm is sustained, it will reach double the pre-industrial level before 2090. Keep in mind that the difference between an ice age when continental glaciers buried about one-third of the global land area and today, when they cover around 10 percent, is a temperature increase of as little as 3°C.

For more background, see "What Climate Science Tells Us About Temperature Trends" and "Climate Change: How Lucky Do You Feel?

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  1. What would we do without studies?

    1. Probably still grunting at each other in the African savannah.

      1. Yes that is exactly what people were doing until the late 1980s when the ”””””scientific consensus””””” coalesced around global warming as opposed to the imminent mini-ice age consensus that had emerged in the prior decade.

        1. Except there never was a consensus around global cooling.

          This falsehood never goes away.

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          2. Only because, back then, nobody was stupid or dishonest enough to insist that consensus had anything to do with science.

      1. The lion may lie down with the lamb, but the lamb is not going to get much sleep.

    2. 1.2 c from doubling CO2 without feedbacks. Positive feedbacks never made sense to me, I think eventually we will discover that the feedback to increased temps will be slightly negative and the climate changes are mostly ocean and planetary cycle driven. But CAGW makes for good politics for the big government types. Just like fossil fuels saved us from the horse shit scare, technology will find a way to eliminate dirty fuels. Guess we will see…

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  2. >>where the planet’s climate stands right now

    95 degrees & 68% humidity in Dallas I could only play tennis for an hour Tuesday. 95 is a cool day in July here.

    1. Now we know why you like your daisy dukes so much.

      1. i’d be naked all day if Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins wouldn’t shoot me for it

        1. It sounds like playing tennis naked might result in a bruised penis head.

          1. Most people are smart enough to not hit themselves in the dick with the racquet. I know your experiences with sports are exclusively as a participant in the paint chip eating olympics so hth.

    2. 95 degrees & 68% humidity in Dallas

      This is why I live in California. Right now it’s 74 with a light breeze.

      1. Yeah, but your tax rates are higher than his humidity.

      2. pops lives in Danville now and we lived in Yorba Linda 30 years ago. California weather makes you forget everything that might suck

        1. California weather makes you forget everything that might suck

          It is a powerful drug. And by a funny coincidence, I live about as far from Danville now as I lived from Yorba Linda 30 years ago.

          *cue Twilight Zone music*

          1. spooky. chicks driving convertibles in bikini tops was almost too much for teenager-me

      3. This is why I live in California

        It’s not because you’re a Marxist authoritarian shit stain?

      4. Obviously not Eastern California, where it’s 74 degrees and 45% humidity in the Walmart where the poor people hang out for 4 hours on weekdays since they can’t afford the electricity.

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  3. Exciting. I’ll be long gone. But there are bigger problems to solve and anyway it’s unlikely you’ll be using fossil fuels by next century. You’ve got plenty of time. Well except maybe if you live on the coast.

    1. How nice, fuck the people of the future

  4. If carbon dioxide doesn’t warm the planet, then how come when I breather on my cold hands, they get warmer?

    1. That’s just C19 – – – – – – – – – – –

      1. I thought it was the stupid in his head burning so fiercely.

        (CMW, I’m aware your comment was sarcastic; don’t take mine any other way.)

    2. I could actually imagine seeing such a “factoid” made in a modern day “political” science publication being asserted. Actually seems about 90% of them use “factoids” just like the one you mentioned.

      Science? More like a practical joke.

      1. Amusing ‘factoid”: The original definition of ‘factod’ was, “Something that looks like a fact, but isn’t really true.

  5. If we just assume that the models are right, we know the answer.

    Question begging for the win.

    1. The models may be dumb, but if you pretend they are right all the time, you might get laid eventually.

    2. Of ALL the models made in the 80s about “global warming” ZERO; exactly ZERO of them have!!! have passed the test of time.

      “assuming” something is right when it has been proven undeniably wrong is what’s really going on.

  6. They also argue that the empirical data for historical warming of 1.2°C over the past century or so suggests that an ECS of 1.5°C is implausible.

    This is changing the subject. They’re talking about the impact of doubling CO2 concentration specifically, but the 1.2°C over the past century is from all causes. We don’t actually know how central of a factor CO2 is, but we do know that it’s not the only factor (there isn’t even consensus that GHGs in general are the primary factor, but we’re not supposed to say that).

    So saying “1.2°C of total rise in the last century means CO2 doubling must impact temperature on the higher end and we can expect warming to exceed that rate in the next several decades” is a circular argument, taking what it claims to be demonstrating (i.e. that CO2 is driving the warming) as evidence for its claims (i.e. the assumption that CO2 and CO2 alone drove the 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era, a claim no climate science I know of supports).

    1. The main problem with the 1.2 global temp increase is just as reliant as models as the model estimation from a doubling.

      We do not have perfect coverage of temperature on the planet so we eye on a set of stations that remain geographically static and then use models to infill temperature, with very large areas of the earth consisting of infill data. Northern hemisphere has many more stations than the southern, as an example.

      In that tim e we have also changed temperature techniques from eyeing a mercury thermometer with slow response to changing temperatures as compared to new sensors that have rapid changes to temperature so a strong and fast gust can effect the average minute recording more than mercury could. Likewise there is a lot of urban encroachment on the stations creating a fudge factor in the UHI which is completely not well understood. This is why land temps have deviated from satellite/balloon data.

      And now we have actual cases of “scientists” using models to go correct measured data from the record books which is complete fraud. The changes are always one way. Cooler past, warmer now.

      1. We do not have perfect coverage of temperature on the planet so we eye on a set of stations that remain geographically static and then use models to infill temperature, with very large areas of the earth consisting of infill data.

        In addition to the direct logical problem, this, too, is a problem, yes. Ron drops this little piece of uncertainty without much fanfare:

        In the depths of the ice ages, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide was just below 200 ppm; global temperatures were between 3°C to 7°C lower than the pre-industrial average.

        Which then at the end of the article becomes

        Keep in mind that the difference between an ice age when continental glaciers buried about one-third of the global land area and today, when they cover around 10 percent, is a temperature increase of as little as 3°C.

        But it could be as much as 7°C. Presuming our abilities to guess what GMT was 1,000,000 years are good as we think they are.

        Why wouldn’t we presume, if we are assuming that CO2 is the exclusive driver of changes to GMT, that GMT at 560ppm would be about what it was when it was that high in the past, i.e. 25,000,000 years ago?

        1. ” it could be as much as 7°C. Presuming our abilities to guess what GMT was 1,000,000 years are good as we think they are.”

          Who’s guessing ?

          We’ve got reams of stable oxygen and carbon isotope fossil temperature data that put glass thermometers to shame.

          1. We’ve got reams of stable oxygen and carbon isotope fossil temperature data that put glass thermometers to shame.

            To an accuracy of somewhere between 3 and 7 degrees Celsius.

      2. “The changes are always one way. Cooler past, warmer now.”

        Why should that surprise you? The newer the technology, the more accurate the measure. There’s no point in replacing old technology and techniques with new ones unless the newer ones are better ie more accurate.

      3. Since 1979 we have had satellite readings from all over the earth. So good averages are available without relying on surface readings. And the satellite group at NASA Huntsville are AGW skeptics . John Christy, Roy Spencer, et al.

        1. Yes. I mentioned those. I also mentioned how they diverge from the land temp record which is what most models base themselves on.

        2. “The researchers conclude that warming-induced changes in clouds will tend to boost rather than moderate future temperatures.”

          This one variable, part of the climate feedbacks, which is poorly understood, is the key. Is it an assumption? Or proven? I have yet to find that it’s proven.

    2. “(i.e. the assumption that CO2 and CO2 alone drove the 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era, a claim no climate science I know of supports).”

      Who is assuming this? Record levels of methane emissions have been measured recently. I’m sure every climate scientist is aware of this, as methane is a powerful green house gas. It couldn’t help but do what green house gases do, ie trap heat, and contribute to a warmer atmosphere.

      1. Who is assuming this?

        It’s literally the argument being made. That given the rate of warming since the pre-industrial era, an ECS of 1.5C is unlikely due to the continued rise in CO2 concentrations.

        Do you not see how making that argument assumes that CO2 drove the entire warming trend from pre-industrial to now? Which, as you say, no one actually thinks?

        1. I think I see what you are getting at. But I don’t think the assumption that CO2 or green house gases in general contribute to a warming atmosphere is so outlandish. It would be far more outlandish to attribute a warmer atmosphere to something else, like sunspots, Chinese hoaxsters, or grant hungry scientists. The green house theory seems the only one to explain the data without appealing to vagaries like ‘natural causes.’

          1. I don’t think the assumption that CO2 or green house gases in general contribute to a warming atmosphere is so outlandish.

            No one said it is. What I said is that no one thinks CO2 or even GHGs generally are the only drivers of warming. In order for this article to be saying anything at all you have to assume that CO2 is responsible for 100% of the 1.2C. Not that it’s a contributor but that it’s the only factor whatsoever.

            The only way we can have even the slightest sense of the impact of doubling CO2 concentrations would be if we knew how much of the 1.2C was driven directly by CO2 concentrations. What if it turned out that CO2 only drove 1% of that warming? The statement that continuing our current rate of CO2 emissions would definitely result in an ECS exceeding 1.5C would be utter poppycock, no?

            Let’s just say for the sake of argument that there’s some other cause we haven’t even thought of yet that drove 99% of the warming and recently stopped. Is the CO2 doubling still going to drive the ECS past 1.5C?

            Do you see yet how the conclusion is baked into the argument, and relies on assumptions supported by no climate science whatsoever?

            1. I’m not sure how ECS is measured but it is defined apparently solely in terms of CO2. The 1.2 C is the increase in global temperature since industrialization and can have any number of contributing factors. I’m not sure we need to know how much responsibility CO2 has in the 1.2 C increase to measure ECS. They may be urelated. The article doesn’t go into details and I’m no scientist.

              1. The 1.2 C is the increase in global temperature since industrialization and can have any number of contributing factors.

                Precisely.

                I’m not sure we need to know how much responsibility CO2 has in the 1.2 C increase to measure ECS. They may be urelated.

                Exactly.

                But what does this imply about the firmly-stated conclusion that “the fact that CO2 concentrations will be double pre-industrial levels by 2090 means that ECS will definitely exceed 1.5C” when we both agree that “they may be unrelated?”

                Might I suggest that the argument relies on assuming the truth of its conclusion?

                1. Doesn’t it depend on how ECS is measured? The article doesn’t shed much light there. An atmosphere with greater concentrations of methane could well mean a higher ECS.

                  1. Doesn’t it depend on how ECS is measured?

                    Yes – absolutely. That’s the point.

                    An atmosphere with greater concentrations of methane could well mean a higher ECS.

                    Which would be unrelated to the concentrations of CO2 such that an atmosphere made warmer by greater concentrations of methane wouldn’t be predicted by increasing concentrations of CO2.

                    Thus, we return to my basic premise: stating that the rising rates of CO2 concentration tells us something definite about future rates of temperature rise begs the question of how much CO2 drives temperature rise.

                    To state my point in the simplest terms: what if we’re so fixated on CO2 that we’re ignoring the methane? What if we take this study’s conclusion so to heart that we curb our CO2 emissions but double our methane emissions? According to this paper, that would be okay because all of the 1.2C to date has been driven by the CO2, and as long as we reduce the CO2, we’ll reverse that trend.

                    1. “what if we’re so fixated on CO2 that we’re ignoring the methane?”

                      You could be right and we place undue emphasis on the ECS rather than the aggregate of GHGs.

                      ” What if we take this study’s conclusion so to heart that we curb our CO2 emissions but double our methane emissions?”

                      I don’t think this is in the cards. If anything there is an effort to curb all GHG emissions.

                    2. You could be right and we place undue emphasis on the ECS rather than the aggregate of GHGs.

                      ECS is the thing we’re looking at. If GHGs don’t have any relationship to changes in global temperature, then why do they matter?

      2. Record levels? Compared to when?

    3. CO2 is supposed to trap earthly warmth because it is opaque to infra-red radiation. Heat coming from the sun warms the earth and would, I guess, be radiated back out into space except for the CO2. The “science” demands that CO2 is only opaque one way, though, in that it doesn’t stop the I/R radiation reaching the earth in the first place. I used to think that other wavelengths would be absorbed and converted into heat but then I got LED light bulbs and realized that light is not heat. Also, no one believes in AGW or beachfront properties would be cheap right now, and they ain’t.

      1. The “science” demands that CO2 is only opaque one way, though, in that it doesn’t stop the I/R radiation reaching the earth in the first place.

        It also demands that we think of CO2 as being an active heater – as if enough GHGs could eventually turn Pluto into Venus, or that if you put on too many blankets you’ll eventually catch fire.

  7. Yawn.
    No matter what, we’ll still be here, and we’ll still be alive.
    If the fascists haven’t killed us all with C19, nothing will.

  8. Regardless of the facts of what will happen decades from now, we need to promote nuclear energy. Global warming is an excellent excuse/reason to do so. It’s low hanging fruit that no one seems interested in picking.

    1. That’s because the AGW brigade is not so much interested in solutions to the problem as they are with imposing their solution regardless of the problem.

  9. Let’s seeeeee ….. the Dinosaurs had 2000 ppm CO2, 5 times what we do. I kinda doubt it was correspondingly warmer. It also seems to have never reached that tipping point we hear so much about.

    Then there are the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods, which were warmer than today judged by cattle in Greenland and olive trees in colder climes, and had less CO2.

    Far as I know, all records show CO2 changes lagging temperature changes.

    No, I don’t think I’ll worry too much about more plant food in the air.

    1. So excessive amounts of CO2 attracts meteors, or what?

      1. I believe they think it was a comet. So yes, “what”.

    2. “Then there are the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods”

      The Medieval warm period was not a global phenomenon but limited to the area around Greenland. I think the current thinking is that it was caused by the vicissitudes (changing circumstances) of warm ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream that allows Ireland (equal in latitude to Newfoundland, understand) to grow palm trees.

  10. I thought we are all going to die from it hitting 400 ppm? Who’s going to be around to notice it hitting 800?

  11. You can easily go to this site to see the conglomerated raw data, no adjustments, no nothing, just what the temperatures are reading. Seems to me as good as any a way to take a temperature reading, if some sites are off or some sites are over-represented, well, it’s the same thing you had before, isn’t it? It’s like using a bathroom scale that’s off by 5 pounds – it’s going to be off by 5 pounds every time so the absolute reading doesn’t matter so much as the changes in the readings. If the bathroom scale says you’re 5 pounds heavier, it doesn’t matter whether you went from 179 to 184 or 174 to 179, you’re still 5 pounds heavier. Currently, the world’s thermometers are saying we’re .02 F warmer than we were 30 years ago.

    1. Might also add that according to this site, the yearly averages for the last 5 years have been below normal for the 30 year average – the planet is currently cooling, not warming.

      1. Solar minimum.

        1. no, no you can’t do that. According the the AGW models the sun doesn’t matter in fact the only thing that matters in the universe is manmade CO2. This assumption is of course to be violated at will if it explains reality in a way that would otherwise invalidate the AGW religion, but only for the specific arugment being made to be forgotten as soon as it’s job of deflection is done.

      2. Time to bring back the “Global Cooling” scare-tactics of the 70s.. Wait; it’s already starting… “The Day after Tomorrow” movie… Our “global warming” caused “global cooling”…. lmao…

        1. “WE DIDN’T LISTEN!!!!!!!”

          1. Somebody has been listening; otherwise our diesel machinery would work like it use to instead of compulsively break down and drop into regen.

  12. Here’s how to solve global warming:

    First of all, rich people should establish no-frills, low carbon resort colonies. Then people can retire and leave jobs for others to work and support themselves to obviate big government and charity. Repeat the cycle until the robots are doing all the work (powered by solar and wind energy).

    Secondly, plant trillions of trees. Yes we have the space for it.

    1. Not if we switch to organic non-GMO farming.

    2. lol… First off all the solar and wind in the world couldn’t power the U.S. Second; nature keeps burning down all those trillions of tree’s you want to waste money and resources planting.

      How about plan B – Stop pretending we’re gods that control climate changes.

    3. ” no-frills, low carbon resort colonies”

      Those are only ok when Obama does it. As soon as the wrong person gets in charge then the photographs from the Obama days become an indictment of the new guy.

  13. The researchers conclude that warming-induced changes in clouds will tend to boost rather than moderate future temperatures.

    Clouds reflect much more radiation into space than they do towards the ground. Thus, that statement is ridiculous. One need read no further.

    1. I remember my time in Alaska during winter wanting clear days and cloudy nights. It’s now summer in the South and I want the opposite.

  14. And as a third line of evidence, they looked deeper into prehistoric climates, including the succession of ice ages and the mid-Pliocene warm period, to see how changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels correlated with changes in global average temperatures.

    Did these geniuses notice that the correlation shows that CO2 levels FOLLOW temperature, not lead it?

    1. Details, all the time bugging me with details – – – – – – – –

  15. The current warming is a benefit to mankind. Vegetation has increased 14% in the last 27 years. Cold kills 17 people for every one that heat kills.

    If CO2 were really controlling temperature we should be adding it as fast as we can.

    1. There are only a handful of crops we rely on. Corn wheat rice and a few vegetables and legumes. An excessively harsh heat wave or a heat wave that lasts a few days longer than usual can result in catastrophic crop failure. Egypt Tahir Square.

      We don’t have to worry that the extra temperatures are going to kill us. We have to worry that heat waves at the tail end of the temperature distribution is going to destroy our food supply.

      1. We have to worry that heat waves at the tail end of the temperature distribution is going to destroy our food supply.

        That would be a worry if the warming were manifesting primarily in longer, hotter summers rather than in shorter, warmer winters.

        1. You think we won’t experience longer hotter heat waves in the summer?

          1. You think we won’t experience longer hotter heat waves in the summer?

            It has not been the trend so far, and based on the geological record there’s no reason to believe it ever will be. There’s no sign of significant variation in tropical climates as far back as we care to look – the swings in GMT have always been at the poles.

            And don’t forget that “Corn wheat rice and a few vegetables and legumes” are pretty much entirely the creation of human agriculture over past 5k years, and frost is a much bigger enemy of food crops than heat is, anyway. There’s a reason civilization started in the Sahara and went north from there as the world warmed. Are the world’s breadbaskets in the arboreal zone? No. Is Egypt famous for both its wheat and its long, hot, hot summers? Yes.

            To be clear, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with taking measures to reduce our GHG emissions, within reason. What concerns me is the increasingly ideologically-driven effort to keep the conversation narrowly focused on CO2 to the exclusion of all other considerations, like methane, which you bring up but which is conspicuously absent from this article, let alone non-GHG causes, which are now essentially hate-crimes to even mention.

            1. I think two links in a comment may be one too many. I repost minus a second link.

              “It has not been the trend so far, ”

              Here’s a link to a study:
              https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2020-07-06-heat-wave-frequency-duration-increase-study

              There are similar studies saying much the same thing. The upshot is that more frequent and longer lasting heatwaves globally have been observed and measured, as has been predicted. They have not been significantly hotter though. Still a heatwave lasting say, 4 days, could well destroy a crop which could withstand a 3 day heatwave, all else being equal.

              ” What concerns me is the increasingly ideologically-driven effort to keep the conversation narrowly focused on CO2 to the exclusion of all other considerations, like methane”

              I don’t think this is a big concern. I don’t know anyone who’s advocating replacing CO2 emissions with methane emissions, for example. Though I do agree that the lack of mention of methane was strange given the prominence methane emissions received in recent weeks.

              The missing link is to smithsonian magazine concerning record methane emissions. Google should help you.

  16. Never forget:

    The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
    H L Mencken

    This is nowhere more evident than with AGW.

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  19. Based on math and physics and chemistry CO2 would have to increase by 2500% to change the temperature by 1 degree. Sorry for facts

  20. Opps wrong line 625% needs to be a min 2500 parts per millon

  21. nice post,
    thanks for this post this post is very useful for me. you are right if carbon dioxide will be double the temperature will be increase 2 degree.

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  23. And to think the authoritarian environmentalists have ALREADY shutdown countless human resource facilities (whole cities in some places), stolen trillions, monopolized the lumber industry, wasted billions of gallons in fuel (regen) and killed the reliability of machinery…….

    It’s like the COVID-19 episode x10.

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  24. Nuke China from orbit. It’s the only way to reduce carbon emissions.

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  27. Thanks for posting, Ronald. As evident of all the comments above, as well as recent articles from Nick, libertarians are slow to science.

    One of the authors, Kate Marvel, a climate scientist and physicist at Columbia’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, said if the warming reaches the midpoint (just the midpoint) of this new range, it would be extremely damaging, the equivalent of a “five-alarm fire” for the planet. Which is why you said a few months ago you don’t feel as lucky as you once did.

    But heck. What does she know.

    1. By the way, hold onto the thought that temps could rise 6 degrees F. Current temps in Phoenix in the summer are 94 to 106. So add 6 degrees to that.

      Oh. And it doesn’t end there. That’s not a max. Unless we make drastic changes, that’ll keep going up over time. Making the American Southwest close to uninhabitable.

      1. Current temps in Phoenix in the summer are 94 to 106. So add 6 degrees to that.

        That’s . . . not how GMT works. And the hot parts of the world haven’t been warming – the cold parts have, Mr. Science.

        1. Ah, the scientific acumen of phony libertarians checks in! Read it and weep, genius!

          https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-american-warming-us-heats-up-earth-day

          The fastest warming cities are all in the Southwest, including….wait or it, genius….Phoenix! Save your smart ass comment for your unscientific libertarians, who frequent these pages.

          1. Read it and weep, genius!

            From your linked article:

            “While Alaska and some Western states have led the way, the Southern United States has seen far less temperature change. The Arctic is heating up about twice as fast as the rest of the world; in Alaska, average temperatures have increased by 4.2°F since 1970.”

            “Just as there are differences in warming trends across regions, so is there variation across seasons. In most of the United States — including all of the Northeastern, Southeastern, and Midwestern states — winter is the fastest-warming season.

            If you have a year with 182.5 days that are 100 degrees, and 182.5 days that are 0 degrees, and the following year you have 182.5 days that are 100 degrees and 182.5 that are 10 degrees, GMT goes up.

            Knowing, as we do, as even the propaganda you quote acknowledges, that the arctic zones are warming at double the rate of the rest of the world, and that the tropics have shown little-to-no observable warming at all, an increase of 6 degrees of GMT resoundingly does not mean “take the summer high in Phoenix and add six degrees.”

            A more empirically accurate, but equally simplistic statement would be “take the arctic low and add twelve degrees.”

            The fastest warming cities are all in the Southwest

            Weirdly, that’s also where the fastest growing cities of recent decades are.

            1. So let’s do a quick analysis. CO2 has doubled in the last 50 years.

              https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11299.epdf?sharing_token=jkgf8g_39Zb6wwB3_trlcdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mie_ffJhsBgSII4L_9UyCuFvKGehyDbdLvsb5Oiv1EeegIk6kt-1RMFSo9gla7WLKmkPIRU3sJ9DqtY71V_4gakSw6ruNrICzGUnIcRllQ8Ib0yvfz4gJhGEU6neZxmXPquvkpnvbGbEQTaLaCwdwD59lDAqGdrH4uezr8r4kXYg%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.carbonbrief.org

              The above article uses the last 50 years as the base. And how much did the temperatures rise in Phoenix during that period? 4.3 degrees. That’s the low point mentioned in Ron’s cited article. I said, as did Kate Marvel, imagine the midpoint…6 degrees. Not out of the question. And certainly possible…based on what happened in Phoenix in the last 50 years.

              Try again.

              1. CO2 has doubled in the last 50 years. . . . And how much did the temperatures rise in Phoenix during that period?

                How much did they rise in Houston? How much did they rise in Cairo?

                We don’t actually use temperatures in Phoenix as direct proxies for GMT. We actually take many temperature readings from around the planet and average them.

                If you can’t understand that an increase in an average does not mean that the highest end of your range goes up by that increase, I just don’t know what to tell you other than that you really should stop running around claiming to have a superior understanding of science, because you don’t even understand basic arithmetic on top of your ignoring the empirical evidence in your own cited source.

                Some of the cities in your own cited source showed temperature decreases – does that mean GMT must be going down? Or are you starting to understand how averages work?

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  29. The problem with the paleoclimate study is it conveniently doesn’t go back far enough to run into the crazy high early CO2 levels which seem totally disconnected from temperature. Here’s how CO2 and Temperature have changed over the full range of geological time:
    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Vs5ttaKtDN4MbxFMZE0deU8lEtEC+cLMTDQBtyOCoR3aSVN5IkqwwYBfqSw+EYEBbxNcE5z4ZL6QaxKSNvJvPyBjzrp4qxqX9q/qkK2Mxl5yrwFDDV9IbxFIn7YWIz51Kx4Rj4UzfCHKrzDEsnozl/SsjE0NtS9BQ8owrn1QV8ZrzUvkGeKo3fNDZqZHHLVEsJT01MVMJm89yByjwVXhubXqa30ktabIhdDCJYtW94ToolY2DnhoFihFhEUOiG5sMxEBjOJgXVvgFJPZ6JZQWe0g0QXzxTzi4+depEic9w6pRGh89PEUu3kKc0VkwRTxk2l+ep5qbEpsG1eSrsaS1fjVswHgF/iuhwPh+mkKMyzybDmMKMRyRetf0UWQxslMzJYsxqckPgmUoYbMc6lVgsWEZP6YZK8wyddRqemp8v0eGGAwcq0c0BfSW6OXPuXA3+lNHtKls5WEQ3KG8w0iDQaCgaM8kk2HLRMDAIWMZJQQldcUrdAJ/NxpKKrQi2Hytns5kbEhskC3hJlj8pa/udKvGnTlBSoti0zbcV00393OYK2IDt11LeLm5ump6uwQ+39hSXW/b6/YzL62OsNi/jVYoxkado3E9S0paClImmJBA6Eg8040hijLxAT/GUxEhsC4V4cFwW0ABCSuL5SDhTRt7U1bWXxNJPUVOoCk+1VOIpkNyVfM1vNdWgp3pKKtyftNkLayGdzl7U4VH8HxdyegrUEPiO2TiWcgkTWYnEi4M5hws0UUytzokKApeMxjOswlOwRpaHOsvQTamvmaspeACeemp+rqIf/q1asIlErEXYkFpIDTYeT+vZ/eAzYGwL8/3UY+JiMWCaLCYOwJHMklouDHmqEYygFFPCfSQaKGfDIKi5OAmmshK8ubEkftPYWEaHK/F1is3U5qn6YrqpwlPUUiyDzeDOWnxNu6eYp3zWHsbt7WFsNj/jV3jqERLbUvK5RPuwRClzWUw4CSy44iRiGqSvwkqQxEka8EJsUBaTcrcoyWXBq4JczmdoL7WLJ09osHlqotRnmAdiqkA3pyrYN80HTx2vgW4GbANUidsiEV9x80RuUB1eEEiXYsEgK4SjpKqEd8gcTXfn5E04m41rZPE4MaNzDlcmmhkq5anJydKYaBf1sRRfs6XUZ2hry1u/RXqKBAnLYdPcXIu8MZlMhDRI/4qnUr8MxUYbExW4bDgryOhqYjI8nAHmIeEZVYfLgiBodXgymeFy8RtALlaCTc7OK+QpjR8OPsNcSzFPHbhSyZ9qe2q+PE9NN9fkM0R8arODx2arqM0VnmJzOXDUTiiPHQiYIIHwkbgcWZDsTCya4RULGmPp49GoTJJ71J+C51JsQOp2lcpirX3zlJ4InMJ4sb6SPzU1P1+WbpoPHjx4pgZ5Y2WcrfTI53JX4an9VE/lYhRowDiAblA0o4fg4Intl9dTo1lU7wTOqJJkYDX+VDYlldFTZWJbpyby8qa+xVDqMxyo6IfPTbVpodHaN+fCa9vFxobRsNI1Y3W5KmJD6EbgtCEKKQk+g+wQ0JEAr9MhowiOkiIKUswmy9S4KczMBJWA6o0bMaFUT7U3lokXU1O5Wn6qUg5mZK5CLB0FTg22X6vHoyDSU4WniO3HFlQJcJlokpcdLPWP5Ag6TSiLleIbIRIOK8eop5SwjRBVFgSDSb40P9UVL41tqWcPVEexvlqBnp4exfYzmnordhJhfqooz4AiR4ilaOkNz2WjEq33U8sIZJnEb1BSB9VJXgpStAh5DZXI4nIxigfHRv9UW7Zi7q4WbGwup2LghP1+a6VVYBdjzT71pNRoOQjhWAaNXA5Rikg8rdtSqpJisbig5jUFNVAqgH1Di7VBSgklPLW1cyPpRn/gQHlZXDPdMH7lyFOppY4hsnjL6eIyP6CEWIblaQUxOOQCVUNKjAIVOE3MCNFcIZMUzC1QSmkLsBk59QD58MrYTE1NFbx6/9gwip6KeIwVwaE6nC+svwFCQNXNEycLXHGMF+fxIz0yrBq/USLN4DOgdQwPnCmRN3XasX55o68vXHa/2PhGwwon+V0uv61C97eiw4vqb1g+lqGKHaSzI05j6fliglwGNKi8kSSwxlleyqCw5vkSuuk6sZHypmTcLzaeXMe0FYa/AjZIN0FEANsVlOpqlBgOkrLk0NuOUZdASVQJPKsyF8tGudxknD8hJIWf86QXa6gYm3L5qT8iNmGPU+Ekq6+kcVZDNyCLeVoirEaEkcXAqqGNLywXzXK8wlN0Qa6YC2w/Xi0miErZzBU2TktOi7ABNOo2WIevDxuv1a7YNwOmanYx6HCSvMyzFZ460A+gIgddca0OF3IFgZyiw2WguxPJuMzFohyahSXYFJRCrhebfKdH7uB+sTF5VYMPbL8Bnwl5C9u43aQV3GNzKjy1ZU+Q4yRNTbGAzAV4KGBwgBNHQlcK+/Csmo/haG0SH5OSsegVOSvFTxDWI2V/X1XN/tT8ZrVVBtx0etCi6desBZvR3QPKkd3l8lgBmwaAI8x43QOMz92j9OE/oca2tF0vwDlAN7na6whWKhW0byoHSn0xcFI0mdwtZDPEweI57ivERp+tf2qqbeqAYX6+JXugHp43P3Vg7lzzmXOD0986M51P+VaNpaO7CYOyE8YoTE5faS2kEtvKlVzTamtZkTd4htYf9vmW6XaIjpNQWEbmr9zIJMflaBD5Eahr6KvDZg6wmW+bM7QdmD8wpR85cODA1OYDxzdNnzt3rqk5cnCwFroZiIQbGnALFZ/RaPPjjJUBinH6nD2mHnyo8kbtg+HzXS9SLMzna69lUFpxLWGpByw4T2wmk03GpFiQlwmdEQ/1K8Wm5amWzfMjhom2Awfa9BNTUwDV/PFNkWnE5tzBZvQ318IGDD8nVdzqzjUmNzCVG47dJjimq0gOpjC2RYRsdkjp6cAMcCwi5GNb2oNocDcbiweTGT4IDivJF2MTNZiMX528MRyYa9G3TdW3gLRpg+f6KUPL1JnmnU2Dg4PNZ6abNw1ONxF0qtHNwGhFLyo/iF1c4GtiekGKxTiacyBdUbIjHi1DN4IczMSFeJLFRGecWDbUOISXvjps6vUtLbRPUf2pz8nipjOUYKanq/fOW+lOQ2sMylNaWZJsSIKDPapcJVHpXMaRydcKqEpKFuIN0s+FYPZEkvjhCk9Sb3Udfb5rYVNm5OJ+6q/mM03/Vo1uGhoI3XhGWxlrxe2VHtmyR1t7jVo660hKpByAo7XDGNgLO4jhh1srkPgXJl0mYkIDF7/CJbF6X4hzmG9gOaUr74+Djda4+bcvzlXOwVC6MT1pslutlWMURIcX6CBuNCWTymJKBZgP56KOcbhoKZl13MDCSUGOszH5Ch+UeJnGxWgDOUlv4dv+6NgA7QxOV8SmYTelG7T6KsdvgG7QDy9s0MymUjJteSEVXbhRRSTGBTNZRzab4STMgceSE0E+FpTRDyMBH2IcomKjoS7hj41NVVnsVHK+Jt+Av2SjLi02e04DBmqhAMkzsDFaICqQFmeUsELU4XDEBpLweygOtows8KC5+ahAIUQzUCnOpnVerPQnjU3YQ3el8/aaqmw9hX13p/F/vKB5lc+Am4D6iIRwsOE5KLPjMCXJqWxQ+HkyKGQEWUjGYkq7Jq0VINX9xIvguD9pbLytJHdHQ8UVHXGyxwsnaPtgSAevcirghZKaY5TFSBoTqaSQlU/EglLM4QinZEVzKUFTXgll8PyfMDZGxtNAqIUYeabKeor0QBf5U2rrAodxdXzC9BMYelI8LkxEslIwDkSTdWTkqEOmPhfWbdFYs9JTxA6p2GwrHY2N2rPN9X+XH23KyVeIDaUWwlM28JoGyi5SsNlf2AON/pSax9O0HApyjBOSGSkTaZBBvEig6bFXJsiqm8BIlG4oZwm8ik3/P6w1/v1/aoZ6gkgEtCHijcPG5MdgH9FOJk9l6wawebjILi6wf9kcJUU5HgSN8CRwUgx1dTaVRJ8hE1Pd9Th5VvtmcnSz7e87YOwgP5WG8tKOsfyjA5GwaMDZSGy8dhgEG6+JOFAV6WZ/US+r9phTdxGQghN8DOglnpUzEVmSYqTtjAtGSdocu1tpnSjZzUQg5Tl0vy2Czdjxjo6DTWOJscSOjkSiY8dgR2JTR9P0WMfYpo6xxKYmnOzYcS7RNHZucLpjeixMsDGYzYGvlqdMa8hibYyC1gpoaIhVGsYAGjkmZ9DXwgaQeNYRJBI6KGMJSjI4kaS9rET2jEejwWAw2n6ivb29kWBzbnqwA658+uDgwcT0uR2RscSpl848Nn1wx8HBpjNNO2BycEfH2LmOjk1NO+C5aZBgE7D0mSvUJq0LmzwYRAx7lBCgifrmmp7ER4r7p5RmeRq1IBuQYcz4yqSUlSewHIkXRlOO0TjKZ4z7hcHZjH9yKhr/JEhHPJ7EgkmB1dBNuOlcx7mxpsTBjoPgDo4lmh4L7zgHpztODSbOjHUcTDQBWwE2Y4OIDUJDsDEHLIGvApv8MHo9VmUbTv9ASS8rsYs5TUCvoD+cA4+gfQKzT1n2ChskWV0+HpOx7ITWtGVjuIEdL0txVsJdg8azMvHEODYvb4CBpjsSTYNjwC8d000djzWNRZrGNr00DXy147ExnJwGOJoAlOmmRMe5x5oINmazxWwxfKXYMB6jmqeyD5SJ+6G84TV2cT7IBVrnBJcMyhMSy8UAEKUJCK1CjlaUgJETQWNRQn+KeOyg1YkXwfJDGllcMlKVJTMdiE0fEI7lq+ApHEXVEy5rpKR3Hu2bgr477X4ULJfJZqOxpAyXzim7u1C2U5LfQTaZkkkCRyJOGcelUnFMNKAaV3T435cb/6A5LqvDQRQD1Vj6LAHF8Nn8d1VGy0Ol0FTBxu52uUo8TFvJnguPPAx2saAylKDV4YK8Oy7H4zEpi+3fyg5KpIBA3W8A6IYHXY7Q8qQxj09GRjMokdH/rN32yw9DvuYI1FQf/Pzsf9Qy0EgoGmNV9iLz5uJ+PabKAcBHyB52eVrJd99x4xPsFf5JIZ5JkhoTYtSxNLPHq/U3rJDKSoQBibKTwE9XWvUkfp0+QwDFjTnwM1TvLxTw2/bHO15AG+j9ZnIKxzu2b98+VsSV1bCxWtWaNmNVfwpkcZmNOrjgFTmZjY5nYihMyJ6ZxI+kGeF8PhzbgVE+cbinFNYVZGgiHU2idWKDOrzP8rOxHR3nP+gY+/iF5ve3E4we37lj7PnEC9bE9uc/7mh+/IXnEaIPAaPHm99/5GPb+x/TZdWw8ZvUyllbuOx20Srd4F5kHN3FhlhuYLEImawsJyekZJhNYhiYZOlolQBxLGlMQ8DN2aIpWakVAExiYSzcUUzprevDBjjKAnTz72OJjk8/Pr/jnUcSH53/kJDNedvHxrEPd7zz8aaPdoyd/9CWoNh8+PE7H5//aOzbH3V8uBY2Hm2RX2tlutlP4jesWlrNyvEkBiFkPis3xNVdpnB/P0ldlqsVQLoRSJ+0UkObyggZh7o76fp4yoDWjcUCPDX2wjvnP+r46D86fjD28cdAEtt3vnDy+bEPx57fvvOjDuMLH9qQbj4AbMbOw8yO73+048OO7e9XxaaBbslu8jE94eLq/QJs9kcFPqe9JT7GxbkYJ8ekGJISCXHivgKohPh8jQkSGUv6fFMZsh1ZHMVPShZkBxE8INuj68IGcbGAzPn3xNhgc8f5jh3vd+w4P7YJcfh4Z8f7QDDw0wxzL7yP/hhgBjOAY8cLH50f69iZqIKN02lTaq8ZpjJHqTEKpewT9ydmJ+ITYNRIP1faXTBCTiiEbFpHm11UmYTWIBfLkq2TwA/nslmJHyd0gzbO+uRNoA80OAjjn40lEsVitvo4uZYsHvD7/erNDHpstsp08zDu0UuLSeQkKz8ZTMqxJNegFG2h5EXlJZE6UbXkWlFYaN9IXNyh0A0nO5ICFm3TgnYuOLQebIgGt4BAhtEXqGz7EcO5wParpQc6V+XnrlpfvIXmGTj5BGiYK1xUjglBSVYriAmRCAKt2ecK9zUGtgHtBWBwxAASoimYlLEEjmyFHJXWhQ2afgEUx2gdGypgo28rxaYGn6HHpVb5+Z0VoVH9KfhPj+EGJtFYNnklm1Q1ueKDgqIKknxDbp82augAp0m8HCGVJnFByGZRhYWDpDUW3rIebNAqDijABOC5EjZ0+n6x8TOqvPF7qsYo0J8Cg/9JPhuT5PF4Eh0Cuu2jxr1C209i83sf8iRgDnaxxIK7yeJ+FOMO0laUVQqy2Si/DmwCfWj79QFCeAC8VR4bZf39YuNqUCOh1oGBKjkYEtsCTZS5AteZvJKkTVLoQsAVqtYgFyzdxU0g0UB4iuAmZHFwM7HEic1GyRYO0vroBgBBcEDemMlReWxUaro/bFpbnb29SizUabRWkTf7SYyCZZNxIR4hVem5Ev5coVtB77zGK41isTG4mzAZZ7MDxHXPxskmxywbZCsoqiJs5sthgxyFqgp0lRkNZMv8Gtg0JxK1YuPzjnrVbGaPteSGIHlsHlZi6ZzUMEEKAhR3Cd1NWhpB/M6gGkpWTES6uxbMwospsJ2FKAph7PDMRpDRAL0oX0FRFWDTXZ5uEBogG6CaPgs5WjKUwUZtdgVsdoZCiRqxsTmtStehx2l0OivXXj+85eGtmNznhAzZ0JDNdf1g+E4tteHy/eFq5kFS9z5kw1lOEOJBjFaAfE5GSAWPxAfZGrDpPnTozt5SbKiCAuLpQ4EDgsc8GyhDNuquWwQbsbk2bExuxuaiN6fq8Xu9XhpVL3fvCsRGR/qhSAcmGng5d0lQa7Kxz7eIoSR1z0wAgewrEMnS9yZpuz2PG02tiU33YkhMv6ovwUaPZl+AWDhEYQXMq5ZSwskpL8DmvFUC9jcAABluSURBVBh6sbkmbAqyma7cnaWK7nmSw6aujoarSL6fz3UmEBwoucRlpXuczpPbXKAsxo6HuEMGKY77LOH7k7hNAy6Icuya2PQvpK+Fru4twcZMlBQqcaLI4XTWbCmWOPqWy3lsXhTFGrEhZZAuJV4eaaVmoKn4XjkYE1WwqRuSqHzhJI11Jyk5Trh+uXAvNxbDohLp9RB4B7hRsRSpv+EFFM1kKwLQV+WZqgCbmSHxYik2SC1UQSmmcWC1T5ORoSMwO1Wfw+bx2rFxj/YMqHdR8rndPiNQidc+oLnHkjHHU9f7+7txDFcZv0FhQnMOCiXh/uBB4jmwn3yR/cXEqxxHF6SS1LWAF8srKi026Zlu8VYJNgYqaYCXqJUD2MzCr0Ku0m8+rnJgy0OJ52vHBtgqZ9Pg/eW85S2cX3566eiRQyv3Ll4g4+KFi5px686hW7cOHfr0Dozv37lzdfHatcXFxeVhRTRRWcwP88vLV7+zfPXa8vKvl5evycIXSbKANI/XgE3/Qmgxn4Zqo3cfQIMYcAlQcYxqfBaFTx6XvfCWqSWDMloeSzwRWhMbTxl1bfRUzIf/8gNRFNOhkFh1hJQHPflsObfHZpTlhz9dKFy78O51WgkXJeWia2AjzvRPzojphYUZMhaUMUMf9z5L3iZa3Nw3S3BSgKlP3oI3pNMh+OowxJlf7fqVGDImKmFjcjH/+cLX3R673UrYxZQrSPL5TJV9hgsXjr69rXOfOo5d+/WvkToWry7euQr0cvXqp4dwXAQSugWkdOFiWgxJuZp9YfiOGJq5t3LxwgqltRVAaoG+imbTGtjohkMz0ua3rgM2aUAmPRMS6cXm/kvEW7eJyDHPEomMXLX3rTszYiidnrm38NnKymf4V/F/99NQelNzBWxsrT6v5z8Zp3o7xbDHo8hiD+OuuBOOqqfU0a3TDREJPDwEEmioWx1dOXHEXRQXhlmlDJlnQ6FrZDquSqblb4i3holdDKRVAzb8ql6/Nze+SX/dJsPSl0yLdwJEny8F0EYGwtm7CP87d364t2D4b9164RHxTqIIG6fVShvHrPYBYu4paHndaqa3d7TyjSaLsSHfuFSE6rrgCb1O+BkGAaH2sg7fEj9D+cPi3ocS/uaFs2mRmEvoV5VVVHlsJIKNRv8ou4+h620mkHwuhghLge1HbGTD3kVxJmnYW6jPDbsSieaXZkI7m8vTjdXKtDKfwMGohyio3gEVER9TeZegctiUuxzERjeEgAjsonhvWOllHV4Qr5G0OW7GSltlhN98IB6iviZX3jLOYzME2HBw1YYibIjqRmjMtw+JV819IIfn0T62mG8viqG39tYXjbeexlL97eKtRAWesrpctPGnVyEjxu/aUGzgF3G1htOhZRr9iy6HZoaJrSPFiTWN/tfvfgu0hI31vFDewMljIwA2w6uWPDgUGwOiYiGhdItFnCHHsyTUFbgO0JR6ndQPT6yEKmBTPHrc1oiHoGQq2UHpQbGpI5QDjHSVtqMFL4kXh9GoAWxY5b4XXPC3cMHkdl4F9/kohw2PPDWLZl5Aa98YEBOSuTMHbi+IX6IUXiV0ZEmLb5ZxyBVsfiU+01wTNja7LdJKsPFFnqwSL74vbAAccLWXxZlhQje/+Sx0dRibVzG2RbbCQRn923Sa0s2a9g0/LM6wqwEL+toabCgsaBj3mW9/X1xEZpolUZw7oZXbpdCo2DwhnqwNG8baC34lOajS2XC/2MD1wCXPiIqeuidScpHAQ0BSIrHSSChEsJHWsm90HJ9eGF7CqLli2KnYIN0Qb2rpt++KtzBeMUtk84z4eSBQCRvwqZ5I1ITNQEOD4mL6Rit3xNw/NjpWAKa6M0x6hGZCwxzxuyRaK0As4sgHoMXRZxDW0OHAoUCBq2YSxiJCh2BjsBCw0Bo+ODL73+I9XDCLPsQNcQWIrJK8aX4xdLE2bOxuRs35bijdoOa9GvpsmOzEABSCoXbcjVZprQLp84sbIoih4d8NDaORVAUbSVoWV4ZnMe2N7kFfQMGGhib6LHcjkbuBL0MLYBtb5pG6bonXA5pirmJsdqVXXqoJGz/pz8SRjwBuDDZ1Q8shMP/ALj4NZiBGbTisL6ZBDA4zv8tgxl9cAUv60OKxw/s6u7sL/kIeG7CqLw7PkiIk5CAAp40Us6H8AShmR3B6JnQXsFoCBG+nQ1/CotJIjhIvTlwMfb2mXtZw7sjodG8o3dTVjYMmIv4UWDos2SZH3Useg4axzPDySt5FS4dmLh7Wkk8OG2E5FFoWZrGwD8UuEgtiYyHsBKcHl1DyzIi/h+PsyN2AGfQ58TwrYNP84owmwFVNh6tSxu6zVtlT6oGw6QY5Q/IMRIVjMEytvUZZHBuVhOFfX/vBIjhkh45euLiQDomH+stgMzwjHhoWqOViJnRjWdXX6wN9xE3os8wtgRy6fU/8r8uBuVRkLpAUL5oxmFNCOGqeIfFi+tNEDdi0qlLG5HVTaLzuUcZq62GMVh/js3rXgU3/gihzAkdYgmOV/ik1+cDFHWgMCsHhYYl4Zf39hxdmFvOUo2IzdBUNbH4VtXMf0U2AjcVgsBDFZQlcHgEH03L7M/G91T+kfn935PJ18VMS8NIEKwqxad6pkcZV+2DyxKLsoOT05+J+RuUe2WcfjG5uha6BLB4+BAqJzW+ozvO0ADuVIeXaJPdJ1w+JC3nCUbHpBvuaY6VZauSRSB+62waSX+gLmC+PoN5GbFIjd2cD4dWrIIpJ2qpYHGuw+VUt2Hhb1XixsYFWigI0GC+2DTBem3KP7AekG9219KVuiQNdDtjQHGeUz3VzCpkI2jnIZepd3vpXQvuKsdFdA4kOFDdrJqFhmqabxfAw1kACKV0eQdYy3xHPpu6CH/77uVti0hyghFN+T6la6UbNa/aErR5aaT1gtzGtXi/JM6hFpA+KjXi0u44FurkzrCTH41w+C4H7iZOtCMAJVTa0ezV0KMdUCjbdl1DasBzCEaB5bwtxt9HaQfGzlEIJFLgq3gygH/75LxbA8lPNwkrY3Eoo9x+tavup0Ru7tUq/74NiQy516KK4WIgNxUdIxSS6TQOvhre6QzMl2BwVr2Ip4dJExKJEhUkIi+CCAYnfLyEM5uviodvgT5m/nEuHPid1biVcVYDNrpObEjZQV9V8BlMuC+6u3Mv6gNgcFhGb7iPionJfRSKLJeW+b1wQW1+jpLZAYarui+J4MTa3xEtgPguRSOpyHyUWlMXIXChv+szZJeQeM2inACGo1VDaonrogYKMTB6b9K2XLoofbRdDu6r1h/u0Ea2K24M/GDZ1neJFis2ymuykezurpOPAClKOwKZgc0y8pBKOis0hcOcFLuO4m10y0zwUuAZUmxPnaeQuIZDPQ/duI0H19YnpuwEqizALXIFuXloR0wtrYPNkDTuCrwObz7oJMRxWynH43MbYBJuBlIR5BpxRmGpf6LNibIAjBSmZmkXBEqBlWpZVGp4gDtXIZZK7A0jg12rA/Ln4jf+6bDbTZLDFbKjAUwtpUQyFdla/13Hlaq0Nwqb/s9C+ISw/ppvN5+pHeVZ2yGgNkpKCIQWbi0XYoLTiWEd21nw5dddMI1lANyRZh0w1C3TTh6GdmdCXFsQmKX72h9TsZWIjFopjDTafJtILTzyxIp6vho23wVjLfhQPhk2/uNKPmjm9j4SROXKL1lzCnJZFBkmSlONVbFaKsBleAUkuOMaX+gIHs8hTcNWWWVp2g+7U6ig1j2+viMkA8FTgDpg3c5GRg9QB07oOWh3+eGjhpZc+LYuNopMGRu2eWm5C8MDYoC3Xv5DGE8wW5/wpUniNJdkc2TiIdFJVwOYzcVG6/gXYN4HZ1GVLYG5kHrChzIVPq1kSuTCbb4pXARs0ApOA3t2lEViNzmheHGuwAQfuXiJxpxw29l5KLNU190ZhkybY1A1x9Abj6qZTAJacChJZTPdfwE9YKJY3QDfXhOCpZVTbI0uBbGoJdPmqhVo3gEl4zkKzDZ+LC7f7YNWMeJuUm1iyI5cL9bgWm3T6ZiLxhPhxATZWk832n06ry6mkNqto7vVjMzPTT57p9Q7xSi8rLbsFZ0qKhSfpTRYlJTKaznkNyv7FiA0bneCRRZbCqyN3LRNhMGPMs0vE/gtE7hITuA9DxsnArPnL0MxtJVqaTV0msAXKYPPEpgRGR7drsfHtVuISDblI1lfIU+kZHWKzolzvEBvV7CpONjJ20D0HMDFBsZkpxGYIseEnfietAnlcTgHlgAO1tBpYGoFDFDSpu6Cv+1DyXhfTtzffRk+TlOPAzxcjS0Qel2Izg0GKZpv4PGLjtluptt7NuIkD9WQtvLRuukFu6g/laGEob/sRtSWwo1doLoKnpSa6mSJsJMTmxidJzE9ZLOE5tFyAeFZHZmdHLgMId0e+RMeS0NCKOPPhoRD1pvqIQbgK4ATUCHyhntpEsHkkoeWpBiWj+SRTAy+tFxsihfvz3rWuS8iXZZNSSrwlCEf3mRyqU7mwAJt74nJ8gheQbvrugmmMkiQ1AtI4mwIEllJIPcQiNAM4YggksoUKatRRAA6WSRqKsBGJr9l8UrxZgI1HjddUjvJtHDbEr+4X7+Wx0Qmser8PiXjjoxlB6WHkCTZiITYsYvOjT2RhlpbnE5fBPDKLlz6ydDk7smqh8gZF8+3Pr978ksT8lDIucLAI6wX0hdisXCXYnJ9ZSVS1/UqGqeixLmw6i7DBBASnbItI+jWzqXGJ3kFbAsLpv1cGGzmb4bhVGkmnRWyrRKLcTaWyd2mKipg4wFyrt2lfjOKmAyqzI7N3FV2V69dUK2kTn4orifvBprfBw9isPYzX7WN8bn9N2HRXp5sVDTZK1pM0iaCTGU3FBOUmMYjNSiE2Q/zwjLh8KilJS4rSJlJ2lQZHl+ZyxX6YDMdaAZIhJz6XRYmhLkVGsncJV01NP7NrU8EAcG4+dj90Y/RoeqALayErjP4j+8pi030RsRkS8zYLWSAJuUYZnotnwnR3HAlvK04pLY+Njh9eEE//yzLHztLafJrIXCUcEwioBbRUFgcw52uhNqElV80VMN/FCHt9IHD56V3PFGKz6aWFmafvBxuvBwU1ifv5C2oh9+3bhv8Ow2NbHRx1H67bBnPbuo/su9ddh692bavbpsXmgngYbN1ibOoEiVU7iPig7IiTrVdZvAle94pYgM0QYhONgQGE4SwFBjB/FcPPoljHFopQn5nkNQNqoAclDZJO4A+YfjB/+fQzu3YVUk5iJXRf2ICydwLFuGxWQMit4akLFy4dObJy9OiRlSOHj65cWDl6CY6PXrhw5MLhlW3bjsDx1XtHLmixOYLYdIorRdjU6egeBQKpv8kOUBMH/C30uguwETjgqbkoUNkqKR5RCidWFUhyKspMjWPzbIA64HTWElBfXEJwEJsirkrcEp9d731ZEZvuo0eO9B86crT/wpFL/UcvHTl2of/IkcPH9h2BqSP9+y4dPnLs7aNHj2qxOSRe61aiOIVMpyM72eI+FlE27pDVtmlE85hOg40kADb/dQPs6FnKT6R1lcaLFVYiM30KBrOUaMzKJKkcIBj9YeSy5XIT0s0ubWVS4qONwUa3b9ux7mPbDncfg4OjQDQgZg4fu3Tp2JEjxy7tO3Zp27FL145eOnZMg80lDFWVwwb9cro7aVBiwRsXyP3ieF33oZAWGxDbbDr9xTLHS7NEoqDNApe9SlIMlpywIbKY8hQ9Vav4KZ7IWKe+uAvyZte5409rKQfcBu+GYKOliGNHDncT9UTq/PAInrDeT5uaBGwWEZtbZbCpI9uCk7hfNEWarUAwS0BpWmx0YAOlxS+WSZ6B6OY+EtKbNxNoaAyClrERnPpmlYpjIopJjlgRPwEQyHNPPz0xcTCsFTlgGt/caGzqymX3S/XUImCj2yceKodNHem2l6KcNJ6K07sr8lL3HbGQbiQe5A02o+VJBX0B5eoJJfUpDQ1mDd0QD4uWAJIAIb53aWTi+MFdTx9f0mJzUvz+hmBTvhiS3nKNPpFLzy/TvQqw6K5VwKaORCcwdxcjt6+SACzKhTlsYEZOh/De7ewsVUf0cldJm12fyji08c5CYqJ0gZlwlWoWorrq6wvcPbcTZDFwVV6TN78ofrAR2OCdQekgOOgaO8lJJ5ohjV06ygQ4oSM3qdMRbI5WwaZuCG9MCg8hgmk87KgZKsKG5wAbrGsXVvtyAhdlMfllUVIxFAU8mFWVupkupxlzGmcO3H0aRfGubx3Pc1Xzrg3CpkvX1dne2NmFYHTVnei6AueNne2dAEZ7Zzs8NdZ11TXqrtTBQnKLVYVuQpWwqRsSeGzn49HGIT330iXx6JBEx/j4EMtJy6HQb7DAgEQkCOv0EdYhp31KK2J9vd6AO1NgQNBCIxSKpCEyqY922F8m9s0zuyIHn8kpq4T4jY3AprOxvX2ys729C2Co62oHAOC8ETc+0ukmT8BTY/uk7gRMw2tdnSdwMwWJ8tTRStgA5UTJPQxijnHSGMIvYjEXHUlsquGW0+kk3iNknnhHAVqav6p4BGbawpqLCAdIbZICDPEiFMcKhVDf5aZdaODsmj5+Lkc4idCGYFPXiFTT2HiisbOzrguoB867EBHgKiQpAAUWdOE0zHWRyJR4oRpP4UyQdk2nYlgZyAnXxJVhpU0Y720qcFhRiZszIKlgORs2d4AsVgw8ooLymQT9Zr3BgL5DXrfT9CfSFNh+uyg45/LgJEKh724ANoqw0aFUqdPlhQo5rFPOc7+IVNoG7gJRVpWxaZdIW1HSkZEl8LHGxYVhWoDMJWWARn6XFGGwIIvzmSZDWyBAWQUvvr4AG/Kr3mBQpQ1tcyXpGpVunnkGwaFslZgRxQ3BRsVBo6N0dZrzvNmroLUtvdKtUT1lsdFJZH/fTNgxEUvKw+nQuCwDMrKcjMHcLz4Qr5ICpzJ9vgagEbMWmsI9FwwGMwXHQhMRlstEFhPb+Nzxg9PP4Ni1sCHYIOt0dnbptDoKOAn0EtFTeaIhKgakcqOuM73QjeZcVWzAoSQ7y8sDow7HFx+It37hyGazDocjHBtIyjOhZQ53D3+wvVaRw6hLAfh8Of0MRQbGmYPHTx08+N///czFDcEGpUh7YyPKGdBRdaCjYKB6Inqqq7EObx0KkAB6ILVBWjd2zi2ku/tX0rma/PLYgEQm9wFBayZ4U0wvy9FoNMknZU4avkbEjW5d+9Aa+qimInTzTO7nzLlvjZw69R/iNzYCG7gOlLW6RqqMQBADBnA2CXqqq+sE/AP11HUCbwUJmLWDHu86Ku7rTqe718AGwQFhQ5oVh1dI2bHASXKSG76WBpYiTLuePXqxN68vYJgicb9dm3blxzNPn/zofxdeq8dew42xi7Ehaqi9HfUR0VHAV6i2GgkHIeHAqMPnzrpJoLDOLsDucHrhUOiDNbHJjSGd7vBCemVxXB7uH04uHwqpsZ+N3r84J3l2FcbSPYzLZa8plq7eI7tAT601Ojvzx90X06GF3+TPu+qKV7cXT3R338P+wVAoNCOGZo72K9Oaq9bXPxA2BffKoTfM2bXpGXCw1Kv173Z6vS8ypppyMB7lHtnOs5cuXZr82tqjvXTq/1x69US1BSdKZr72tVc//I8P0un0Nz64+rVGde6f/lYzCk5qeoGM6cdKR9PLDb1whXi5pkirjex4U0vuzqPeI9vYWtuwlU45f/nLopm1P8xpa3XS8TfqaP2b0mErM1c0jGsvcRpb1b7MJz1Ggk1DLffzUO+RXWuaryYpVsOH1VASVNtfq+WLWzVHtDigtfKuJQ/2J2peV8Oi2r7ahmPzQKPKduH3/2cqt/flRm3Y1PDXavhbNV/cX8d9DdwuHB/O6lWTzlYPLQerLsZMZIGp8iITdo96TGt8DgpP/EKeittg0WbdtdbgWOPCqgyTD/SU125zV7lNNI4Gk5MhW2W3+qqsitgYWJDbT7vMsJnC8Dm+6p/j9nhddqvNZXP7K1/YgJFR1lTcCxSH3WarTfSXeetuI25zt9tnqrpzJGM12mGBzehlfJWLnUZtNqef8RutTKTSEqe1hwnD58CyKv+fvT5YZPLvZlyVG/49RvhCJt9uxuOtuAa/E2OqfGOK6sNqd/pBpY16W53VCILs4jDK+O0+pvJ2b4zL6zf1MD12r6anreRzIvA5Xjssq4wx9qP0mDzGUaZKRR7A5uv1eEcZe1Wh7XO2+qu9Xm0Ybb0M7uthqy7z8R4YTqBOV5XbSYPl4CIL7LaKNEE/xw7LqugPWNQLXwy+XJXLxr0cbWuswbHGhf11/HX8dfx1/MUOEwpIMHN8YPi7TfYy4hsUntVnMpUqK///g6/3xx2uBlAQoySONFBOZ3nRqm1gTCX2psf/F+//uEFNW0fBMQiDgQEmtc3KmNw2xkQsAHgtjDZdK+504LS2ekCve6wmYsvY0bZx2U2M9S9W9YI1iXZ0A2Jj8rl8AIzf6rIZPS7sKVB9gVEXYxq1+p2mAU+Dx+VH3IzW3Sa72+qzuavcu/DPe9gZnx+weZJgY/NEwAvAHZ1MuKdpAxh+FBt/LwPWOLzuM+0GugIwXCbc6snn9fic99d28OczTH5rr9s6ao84w60Dbr/N5MNNKIF0vOjx+8HxQEHjHCD2uMlm7bFFTC40YAEe24C9x+jCPff+2FfxpzhsrQ/uAv2lD08tPV8bNf4vLzaNMij5DegAAAAASUVORK5CYII=

    Further, while I’d have to read it in detail to see how they deal with other sources of climate change (like polar tilt), CO2 doesn’t really explain the end of the ice age. Yes, there was less CO2 during the glacial maximum, but it wasn’t increasing CO2 which ended it, rather, CO2 increased as a *consequence* of it ending (because CO2 locked in the ice got released). Oops?

  30. Since science aimed at refining climate sensitivity estimates is being published faster than anyone can read it all, more effort should go into global models addressing the concerns of a broader spectum of blog commenters.

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/07/schellenberger-sequel-will-connect-dots.html

  31. 0% of climate models have been accurate. A big fat zero. And, none have been even close. So, how seriously should we take this model with it’s obvious errors?

    1. So, how seriously should we take this model with it’s obvious errors?

      In this one the biggest error is in the baseline assumptions. The model could be the most perfect model ever devised, but garbage in, garbage out.

    2. A good number of these models have predicted higher atmospheric temperatures higher ocean levels and higher CO2 levels just as has been observed measured and predicted.

      Even the most expensive Swiss watches are not accurate!

      1. A good number of these models have predicted higher atmospheric temperatures higher ocean levels and higher CO2 levels just as has been observed measured and predicted.

        A good number of people with functioning senses have noticed that atmospheric temperatures, CO2 levels, and ocean levels have been rising consistently for 20,000 years. That the models are in agreement with this empirically-observable and long-understood fact is not confirmation of their accuracy except in the very broadest of terms. Like they agree that “sky is up.”

        Same way if I make a computer model that predicts that the sun will rise tomorrow along with a lot of stock futures and sports results, the accurate prediction of the sun rising doesn’t necessarily say that the model is going to be good at the other things also.

        1. “A good number of people with functioning senses have noticed that atmospheric temperatures, CO2 levels, and ocean levels have been rising consistently for 20,000 years.”

          Consistently means at the same rate? i thought the advent of industry its reliance on burning fossil fuels saw a measurable increase in global temperatures. Here is a link to a NASA study:
          https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming/page3.php
          Here’s the gist of it:
          “As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.”

          1. There’s a great timeline in that link that shows the interglacials over the last million years and how much the warming that has occurred over the last five thousand years matches that pattern pretty well.

            Of course, if you extend that timeline back fifty million years, the world was much warmer.

            The text, of course, goes on to say that if you assume that CO2 is the primary-to-exclusive-driver of the warming, and pretend that the trend was linear up until a hundred years ago and assume that the average rate of increase for the last hundred years is going to continue for the next hundred (despite the evidence of the last 20), then the models, which largely assume that CO2 is the primary-to-exclusive-driver of the warming, predict between 2 and 6 degrees of warming over the next century.

            IOW, if you assume that increasing concentrations of CO2 have driven the warming of the last hundred years, then it only stands to reason that this warming will continue to accelerate over the coming century if CO2 concentrations continue to rise.

            And here we are again.

            1. “IOW, if you assume that increasing concentrations of CO2 have driven the warming of the last hundred years, then it only stands to reason that this warming will continue to accelerate over the coming century if CO2 concentrations continue to rise. ”

              I agree with this. If not CO2 as main driver, what then? Methane? Sunspots? Chinese Hoax? Grant grubbing climatologists? None of these are convincing to me. Often you read about ‘natural causes’ as if that explains anything. With CO2 we have a link to fossil fuels. It’s actually impossible to burn fossil fuels without producing CO2. The heat trapping qualities of CO2 have been understood since the days of Darwin, and increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 have been observed and measured.

  32. A good number of these models have predicted higher atmospheric temperatures higher ocean levels and higher CO2 levels just as has been observed measured and predicted.

    Even the most expensive Swiss watches are not accurate!

  33. Computer models predicting future climate change are almost completely worthless. The worst case scenarios are portrayed as inevitable, and the political uses of these scenarios are to demand immediate change. That change is inevitably a strong centralized government to “fix” the Earth’s climate. Nonsense.

    1. “That change is inevitably a strong centralized government to “fix” the Earth’s climate.”

      A collapse of the global economy would also do the trick. We could also move from burning fossil fuels to ‘renewables.’ I don’t think a more centralized government is necessarily part of the fix. If anything, the move from other fuels (wood, whale oil etc) to fossil fuel saw a great deal of government centralization. Perhaps moving away from fossil fuels will see a government decentralization.

  34. The [CO2] has already double due to human activity and yet the rate of warming is unchanged since the LIA. MMGW is a hoax

  35. Ron —

    You missed the mark when you wrote “plowing down forests”. Merely knocking trees down does not release their carbon to the atmosphere. In fact, knocking them down makes room for new grass or trees to grow and absorb CO2 while the dead tree could be turned into issues of National Geographic that will impound their carbon until the sun turns into a red giant…

    Plus, if replaced by grass, a forest’s dark green canopy is replaced by tan (in summer), returning more of the sun’s visible light back to space before it can even turn into awful IR trapped by CO2. Thus “knocking down forests” could be one of the most effective ways to cool the planet!

    But you won’t hear enviro-whackos say that; that’s because they care more about trees than cooling the planet.

  36. Look, it’s the Temperature Boogeyman again. Every time I see the hysteria over some statistician masturbating with temperature data I’m reminded of how little they understand about the underlying science.
    For there to be warming there needs to be an increase in thermal energy or enthalpy. Air temperature is a gross but poor indicator of that. To determine the enthalpy of a mass of air, you need to take any number of factors into account including temperature, pressure and most importantly humidity.
    So, flash quiz. If you have the same mass of air, one at 20°C & the other at 25°C, which will melt more ice? Not necessarily the one you think. If the “hotter” 25°C air is at 25% relative humidity it will melt less ice than the “colder” 20°C air at 50% relative humidity. There’s a whole field dedicated to this called psychrometry that HVAC technicians use to determine how much heating & A/C you need.
    What the “climate scientists” fail to tell you is that one of the hundreds and hundreds of assumptions they’ve made in creating their atmospheric models is that the humidity for all of their historic temperature measurements is the same. That’s because none of the historic temperature data sets they are using include humidity measurements along with the temperatures. Quite an assumption! Especially when they’re panicking over a half degree temperature increase but the variation in enthalpy is actually dwarfed by typical changes in humidity. This makes any observed temperature changes insignificant and actually part of the margin for error in the real world. And if you think humidity doesn’t vary that much, just Google a humidity chart for wherever you live.
    This is one of many reasons why I view the title “Climate Scientist” in the same category as “Sanitation Engineer.” No offense intended towards my trash collector who performs a valuable service. As opposed to the Climate Chicken Littles.

    1. “Air temperature is a gross but poor indicator of that. ”

      Recent studies have shown that the oceans are warming a lot faster than previously known: “As the planet has warmed, the oceans have provided a critical buffer. They have slowed the effects of climate change by absorbing 93 percent of the heat trapped by the greenhouse gases humans pump into the atmosphere.” The Northwest passage became ice free recently and there has even been cyclonic patterns (hurricanes, typhoons) in the arctic ocean, pretty much unprecedented.

      1. Interesting that your argument to established science is to simply change the subject. Evidence of ocean warming has its own substantial issues including very sparse data, both current and historic as well as the fact that the temperatures measured vary greatly being impacted by currents, depth and other factors. But I’m not going to play heretic to your beliefs. I would just like to see some real science and non-emotional rationality applied to the discussion.

  37. The new study narrows the range of the probable temperature increase. With doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the eventual warming would probably be between 2.6°C and 3.9°C. There would be less than 5 percent chance of staying below 2°C—and a 6 to 18 percent chance of exceeding 4.5°C.

    These kinds of studies are pure guesswork. People couldn’t even predict COVID with tons more data. This is worse.

  38. So I guess our federal government will be spending more money on Nuclear Research, fission and fusion, getting the Yucca Mountain repository open, and getting some of these new plants up and running to provide CO2 free energy?

    Of course not. It doesn’t have the Green Deal stamp of approval.

  39. Ronald Bailey should get a new job, nothing that even pretends to be related to science. He repeats conclusions from “studies” that are designed for political purposes. He doesn’t recognize that speculation and assumptions do not prove anything, and that all climate change “predictions” are based on models which are based on unprovable and untested assumptions. There are more holes in the models than there is substance.
    Calling people who publish a “study” “researchers” does not provide any validity to the alarmism they are pedaling.
    Just once, it would be nice to see Bailey poke holes in the nonsense from which he is quoting.

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  41. It’s taking too long. I want to retire to the beach it would be so much easier if the beach came to me.

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