Coronavirus

The Federal Government's Eviction Moratorium Expires This Week. Will an Eviction 'Tsunami' Be the Result?

Democrats in Congress are floating plans for billions more in rental assistance, and a blanket nationwide moratorium on evictions to forestall a potential housing crisis during the pandemic.

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The looming expiration of the federal government's eviction moratorium this Friday, coupled with the end of expanded unemployment insurance later this month is fanning fears that the much-warned-about wave of evictions could soon sweep the nation.

In response, Democrats in Congress are floating a number of proposals to keep people in their homes and paying their bills, including a yearlong national eviction ban and billions in additional aid to distressed renters.

And yet, there's reason to be skeptical of the near-universal consensus that we will see people forced out of their homes in droves for nonpayment because of the coronavirus. Some of the more far-reaching proposals to handle this potential wave carry their own risks of exacerbating America's housing problems.

This week, Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) plans to introduce the Rent Emergencies Leave Impacts on Evicted Families (RELIEF) Act. (This is not to be confused with Harris's Rent Relief Act, a separate proposal to provide cost-burdened renters with refundable tax credits.)

"We are now on the brink of a housing and homelessness crisis, but this administration has failed to address the financial hardship Americans are facing," said Harris in a press release. "Housing is a human right, and that's why we need this comprehensive plan to help keep Americans safe and in their homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic."

The bill would freeze evictions and foreclosures for up to a year, ban rent increases, and give tenants 18 months to pay back overdue rent, according to a summary put out by Harris' office. Her legislation would also ban late fees for missed rent.

Harris' bill would both extend and expand the existing federal moratorium on evictions passed as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. That eviction freeze applies only to tenants who either received federal housing aid or lived in a building financed with a federally backed mortgage.

The Congressional Research Service estimated that that moratorium covered about 28 percent of rental properties, although reporting from outlets like CityLab and The Washington Post has found this eviction ban has been unevenly enforced by local housing courts.

The Democrat-controlled House has twice passed an extension of this moratorium coupled with $100 billion in emergency rental assistance, once in May as part of the $3 trillion HEROES Act, and once as a standalone bill at the end of June. The GOP-controlled Senate has taken up neither bill.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) has also introduced her own legislation expanding the CARES Act eviction moratorium to all rental properties until March 2021 and banning fees applied to late rental payments.

In the first two weeks of July, some 87.6 percent of renters made at least partial rent payments, according to the rent payment tracker put out National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC), a trade association. That's down slightly from both the 89 percent payment rate reported at this point in June, and the 90 percent payment rate from July 2019, according to the NMHC tracker.

Given the circumstances of a global pandemic and related economic recession, a near-90 percent payment rate is nothing to sneeze at. It's also something landlords worry won't last.

"The government support, including unemployment benefits, that has proven so important to so many apartment residents expires at the end of the month," said Doug Bibby, NMHC's president. "If action isn't taken now we risk making the nation's housing affordability challenges far worse."

Tenants' concerns about paying growing too. Some 21 percent of renters surveyed by ApartmentList in July said they were either very concerned or extremely concerned about being evicted in the next six months, up from 19 percent last month.

The U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse survey from early July found that 12 percent of renters had no confidence they'd be able to make their next housing payment on time, up slightly from the 11.5 percent of respondents in early June.

Researchers are worried too.

"You could use whatever natural disaster metaphor you want, there's the avalanche, the tsunami, and I think we are going to see that level of displacement," Sam Gilman, economist and co-founder of the Colorado-based COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project (CEDP), tells Reason.

CEDP, using data on tenants' rent burdens, incomes, savings, and availability of unemployment insurance and other benefits, estimates that between 19–23 million people will run out of money to pay rent and will be at risk of eviction by the end of September.

Other economists are more skeptical such an eviction wave is imminent, noting that the last recession saw eviction rates stay pretty flat.

"Based on what little data we have, [there was] absolutely no effect on evictions from the 2008 recession. If you look at their data lines, just looking at those, you would not able to guess the economy got worse those years," says Salim Furth, a researcher at George Mason University's Mercatus Center.

"If you think of this only from the tenant angle, it doesn't make a lot of sense," says Furth. "From the landlord angle, it actually makes sense. An otherwise good tenant who loses their job is still probably better than a vacancy and a search." Many of the tenants who could fill a unit quickly are also on the market because they're being chronically evicted, he adds, saying "there's a lemon market aspect to it."

"The [eviction] filing rate has been relatively stable for the last 20 years, as far as we can tell," says Alieza Durana of Princeton University's Eviction Lab, which collects historic data on legal evictions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Eviction Lab has also published a weekly tracker of evictions in select cities. That tracker shows that evictions are way down in most cities, which Durana credits to the eviction moratoriums almost every state imposed in response to COVID-19.

"The eviction moratoria in many places were effective in shutting down the courts and slowing eviction filings to a trickle," says Durana.

These policies are starting to unravel, however. The Eviction Lab's scorecard of state eviction policies shows that only ten states, plus the District of Columbia, still have an active moratorium on evictions for nonpayment. Where eviction moratoriums have been allowed to expire, Durana says, there's been a surge in filings.

"Now as some of the moratoria lift, we're starting to see increases in filings, and in a couple of places—Milwaukee, Richmond, Houston—filings surpass their historic average," she tells Reason. Milwaukee, in particular—which saw eviction filings spike by some 44 percent above last year's numbers in first two weeks of June after the city's eviction moratorium was lifted—is the "canary in the coal mine," she says.

Some of this surge can be chalked up to the effects of moratoriums themselves, which have created a backlog of eviction cases that would have otherwise been processed over a period of several months.

Despite the spike at the beginning of the month, June evictions in Milwaukee were only 17 percent above the historic average number of evictions filings from 2012–2016, according to the Eviction Lab data. That's comparable to the number of evictions filed in the pre-pandemic months of January and February. Eviction filings for the first two weeks of July are only 4 percent above historic averages.

There've been 4,644 total eviction filings in Milwaukee this year, down from a historic average of 6,569 eviction filings.

States that never imposed an eviction moratorium, and for which we have current data, haven't experienced these massive surges in eviction filings either.

That would include Oklahoma, which never imposed an eviction moratorium of its own. Data from the Oklahoma Policy Center's Open Justice Project, which tracks eviction filings, shows that 5,141 evictions have been filed since Oklahoma's state of emergency was declared on March 15 and that 1,677 evictions were filed in the month of June.

According to Eviction Lab's data from 2012–2016, Oklahoma has averaged roughly 37,000 eviction filings each year, or an average of 3,122 each month. That means eviction filings are at about half of where they've been historically.

Some of this reduced rate can be explained by the Oklahoma Supreme Court's requirement that landlords verify their property isn't subject to the CARES Act's moratorium when filing an eviction. That the CARES Act moratorium covers only about 28 percent of rental properties nationally suggests it alone is not solely responsible for the 50 percent drop in Oklahoma's filings.

This all has implications for what should be done about the pending expiration of the federal eviction moratorium.

It's possible that letting it sunset will not produce the wave of evictions many housing advocates and researchers fear. Keeping it in place for another year, and expanding it to all rental properties—as Harris and other Democrats are proposing—would however almost certainly set the stage for a huge surge in evictions whenever it is lifted.

In an op-ed for Barron's, National Low-Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) President Diane Yentel proposed pairing an eviction moratorium with rental assistance, which would prevent tenants from accumulating unpayable back rent, and thus hopefully prevent a major spike in evictions down the road. The NMHC and other landlord associations have endorsed the idea of rent assistance as well.

Gilman agrees, saying that "the eviction crisis is a cash crisis. Tenants can't pay their rent. Landlords don't have rental income, which makes it harder for them to pay their mortgage. Cash is the solution." He notes that evicting people during a pandemic also raises public health concerns, given that many of the people who lose their homes might end up rooming with family, friends, or staying in crowded homeless shelters.

Some free market scholars have accepted this logic, suggesting that the unique circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitate either cash transfers or rental assistance targeted at the very low-income tenants.

The trouble with these proposals from a more radical libertarian perspective is that they, like any government transfer program, depend on coercive taxation. They also shift the burden of paying the rent from tenants onto taxpayers and could also reduce landlords' incentive to lower rents, offer forbearance, or even forgive some of the rent debt tenants have accumulated.

In a June policy brief, Furth recommends a number of more modest policy proposals. He suggests state and local housing authorities, as well as landlord associations, encourage renegotiation of lease terms by publishing model agreements with clauses for rent forgiveness and repayment plans.

Preventing a surge in evictions could be done through prioritizing evictions for tenants who are violent, creating nuisances, or causing property damage, he recommends. Should a surge in evictions occur, he says, the number of evictions allowed per landlord could be capped temporarily.

Landlords could also be compensated for rent forbearance they offer with tradable development rights that could then be sold to developers looking to build bigger buildings than what current zoning codes allow.

Even in the best of economic times, a huge amount of people are evicted in America each year. "The last year for which we had publicly available data, which is 2016, we witnessed 3.7 million eviction filings, so about seven per minute," notes Durana.

Whether this problem will be worsened by COVID-19 remains to be seen. Proposals for endless eviction moratoriums carry their own risks.

NEXT: Rand Paul on Republican Plans for Another Coronavirus Stimulus Bill: 'They Simply Don't Care About the Debt'

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  2. So are they writing all the landlords checks or something?

    1. Haha, good one.

      They invented the authority to insert themselves into contracts between private parties, and they do not see why they should have to compensate anyone for it. Because Fuck You That’s Why.

      1. The Constitution isn’t a suicide pact!

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    2. That’s funny, Brian. May as well suggest they reduce property taxes.

  3. How about a 200% tax on all political campaign funds, and all future donations?
    How about we confiscate all the property of all the politicians who have shut down the economy for no reason?

    Welcome to the revolution.

    1. I’m guessing it will be difficult to get the politicians who would be affected by this proposal to pass it.

  4. “Housing is a human right.”

    [facepalm] [grimace] [shakes head]

    1. Harris manages to be awful at every opportunity. Statists don’t believe in rights anyway; for Harris a “right” is some handout she doesn’t have to account for; something that buys a vote.

    2. If a human right, then let the humans pay for it.
      But the state cannot go around appropriating private property to force individuals to house wards of the state. Too bad the Third amendment was written too narrowly.

      1. Following her logic, all of our rights must be financed by the state. I have a right to keep and bear arms, where is my government financed machine gun?

      2. But the state cannot go around appropriating private property to force individuals to house wards of the state.

        But I bet they’re going to try anyway.

  5. God damn I hate the Democrats. Stop giving people so much of my goddamn money. I’ve paid my rent through this entire shit-show.

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    2. To be fair, they are giving away your great grandchild’s money right now. Your money was spoken for in 2004.

  6. cutting off free housing and unemployment should get people out from behind the masks and demanding the economy reopen.

    1. This. The unemployment has got to go. People don’t respect money they don’t earn. Paying people to not work is beyond infuriating.

    2. I imagine the majority of these protesters will evaporate once they are allowed to work.

      1. I too am doing more drugs during the lockdown.

      2. “I imagine the majority of these protesters will evaporate once they are allowed to work.”

        I’ll have what you’re smoking.

    3. I have wondered how much of that is still legitimate concern and how much of it is people realizing that getting paid to stay home and do nothing is a pretty sweet gig.

      1. I work because I choose a standard of living that is above merely existing.

        1. You may want to do some research beyond the Vox narratives

          http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/the_work_versus_welfare_trade-off_2013_wp.pdf

          Various states the welfare dollars when you add up all aid can be 40k or more, more than the median wage.

    4. The economy is largely as open as it is going to get until the virus is under control. All you ‘pedes used to point at Sweden as the great example. Until it turned out that their economy declined right alongside lockdown countries. Turns out people don’t want covid, no matter what conspiracy theorist say about it.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-didnt-impose-a-lockdown-its-economy-is-just-as-bad-as-its-neighbors-who-did-2020-06-25

      1. bullshit. Ever wonder why that article uses obscure numbers like “car rentals” and “consumer confidence” rather than gdp?

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-16/one-economy-stands-out-as-crisis-reveals-striking-differences

        1. Confidence Index is not just obscure, it’s not a measure of economic activity in any sense. It’s like the stupid happiness index. If the author is reaching that low, there’s no good evidence at which to point.

      2. The virus is under control. People are not dying in the streets and the health system is decidedly undewhelmed.

      3. De Oppresso Liber
        July.22.2020 at 2:23 pm
        “The economy is largely as open as it is going to get until the virus is under control…”

        Is that supposed to make sense to other than a fucking lefty ignoramus?

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  8. “The bill would freeze evictions and foreclosures for up to a year, ban rent increases, and give tenants 18 months to pay back overdue rent”

    So what happens when it expires and landlords start getting foreclosed on because they couldn’t make loan payments without corresponding rent payments?

    Are landlords still required to maintain upkeep on property that tenants aren’t paying for?

    1. Landlords are more likely to lose their properties to the local government for failure to pay property taxes. I think I read somewhere that it’s already happening.

      Government bans tenants from working, tenants can’t pay rent, landlords can’t pay property taxes, and the government scoops up the properties.

      Unintended?

      1. I think I read somewhere that it’s already happening.

        That seems wildly implausible. Every jurisdiction that I’m aware of charges property taxes on either a semi-annual or annual basis, so the vast majority of landlords have had at most one tax payment come due since the pandemic started, and seizing properties for unpaid taxes takes months at minimum. Typically an owner is going to need to be years behind on their property taxes before a municipality moves to seize it.

        1. I believe that Maryland moves to take the property after one year of non-payment.

      2. It would be interesting to see if some coalition of landlords who aren’t collecting rent could organize a kind of “tax strike” and stop paying the governments that are enacting policies that could forseeably leave them unable to to pay those taxes. With the risk/reward potential attached to doing that, its probably highly unlikely to happen.

        It seems like the main set of landlords who might be looking for an excuse to clear out tenants in this environment would be those who have been subject to aggressive rent control for a long time. Evicting one tenant who’s behind on a near-market rent has a limited upside when so many of the potential new tenants have also been made unemployed by government mandate, but if someone is behind on paying 25% of what a unit could be going for due to rent control, the calculus changes.

        Most state/county governments wouldn’t have much use for a lare number of siezed rental properties, and wouldn’t benefit much from having to auction them off in a short span of time.

      3. “Landlords are more likely to lose their properties to the local government for failure to pay property taxes. I think I read somewhere that it’s already happening.”

        I’m pretty sure I read that you’re an ignoramus someplace also.
        Oh, yeah! Here!

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    3. I imagine there will be a deficit-fueled mortgage bailout somewhere down the pipe.

      Sucks to be a responsible property owner who pays cash and avoids leveraging personal debt/risk to acquire productive assets. Everyone else gets to hop on the federal gravy train.

  9. It is just about creating a wedge issue. They assume the Republicans will not go for it, just in case they will add some poison pills to it. They did it with Abortion, the issue had pretty much been put to rest and then they passed a bunch of ridiculous laws, abortion up to and after birth etc. to rile the other side up and it did, you get the Louisiana law that just got struck down and they can point to that law to rile up their base and it goes on and on.

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  11. “Democrats in Congress are floating plans for billions more in rental assistance, and a blanket nationwide moratorium on evictions to forestall a potential housing crisis during the pandemic.”

    Trying to forestall the inevitable was why they squandered so much money on TARP. People who couldn’t afford those homes ended up being evicted and turning into renters anyway. The same thing is happening here. Recessions don’t really change anything fundamentally. They just accelerate processes that were already underway. People may need to move in order to go where the jobs are. If the jobs aren’t near overpriced rental units in New York City and San Francisco, then what good are we doing by keeping people in rental units near places where the jobs aren’t anymore?

    The fact is that if you’re being evicted because you lost your job, and new jobs are typically remote and don’t pay as much because employers don’t need to subsidize the outrageous rents people pay in New York City and San Francisco, then you need to move.

    Like I keep saying, Canadian geese don’t fly in “V” formation because they understand the laws of aerodynamics, and people behave as if they were smarter than they are when they are subjected to market forces. Plenty of stupid people don’t know why they’re moving to Greenville, SC. They just seem smart because they lost their job in California, got evicted, and found another job where the economy is growing (in no small part because quality housing is relatively cheap).

    1. Paying people to stay poor seems to be a winning strategy in politics.

    2. Up here in NETN it is a sellers market. Just spoke with a realtor friend who says current data is sellers are getting, on average 98% of asking price, and one third of all sales are cash.

      People moving here from major markets are finding that the distressed sale of their old 3/2 rancher will get them darn near a mansion here, and with a property tax bill cut in half or even smaller.

      1. Here in Florida, the housing supply, both rental and for sale, is EXTREMELY LOW. Housing has jumped 15% in the last month. Rental prices have jumped sky high. Limit evictions; limit supply. Also, people aren’t moving when getting new jobs, because the job market is so bad. Hence, sclerotic housing market and much higher prices.

  12. Why is eviction the expected outcome? If the problem is that renters can’t afford to pay rent, maybe the outcome is a reduction in the rent?

    1. Are we talking about a market with a low vacancy rate or a high vacancy rate?

      If the vacancy rate is low, like is the case in San Francisco, why would a landlord want to charge less for rent to a current tenant with financial problems when he or she could replace the tenant currently in the unit for a new tenant without financial problems–and maybe at a higher rental rate?

      If it’s in the best interests of landlords to carry delinquent tenants for however long, that’s what they’ll do. If it isn’t in the best interests of the landlord, then you need to show me why its in the bests interests of employed people looking for rental units or anyone else but the deadbeats in-place to force landlords to do anything against their will.

      Want to see rental units come off the lease market en masse and go Airbnb, only rent to friends and family, or go condo? Because that’s a great way to ensure that happens.

  13. It’s a socialist paradise in the making. Pay for ubi then housing then food and then why get up and go to work. Or do better than a half assed job.

    Prepare for the mass graves and re-education camps. That will be next if they encounter further resistance.

    1. a slippery slope into the slow-boiling pot

    2. If they intend to put you in a mass grave or a camp, make them earn it.

      Since these people are opposed to earning literally anything, that oughtta stop em dead in their tracks.

  14. The Federal Government’s Eviction Moratorium Expires This Week. Will an Eviction ‘Tsunami’ Be the Result?

    How in the world can the Federal government have this authority?

    Fuck it, let ’em burn it all down. There’s no salvation coming, the only recourse is to tear it up and start over.

  15. “This week, Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) plans to introduce the Rent Emergencies Leave Impacts on Evicted Families (RELIEF) Act.”

    I’m against any piece of legislation that has to have a cutesy acronym.

    Might as well bring back the “rent is too damn high” guy.

  16. Free market at work, and rightfully so. If you don’t work, you don’t have a place to live. Not complicated. If you want a place to live then get off your lazy ass and get a job.

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    2. Or, move to a place with lower living costs.

  17. Will evictions increase?
    Interesting economic problem for landlords; keep the non-paying tenant who might later return to paying tenant, or evict. But if you evict, do you have a paying tenant lined up, and will they be a better financial bet than the guy you know.
    I can imagine landlords being selective in which tenants are the first to go.

    1. “…But if you evict, do you have a paying tenant lined up, and will they be a better financial bet than the guy you know…”

      This is Harris; who, literally, studied politics *under* Willie Brown in SF, where, until recently, ANY vacant property sold for more than an occupied property. And it’s pretty certain to return to that soon.
      So, as a property owner with some resources, it is likely best to evict, and hold the property empty until the PANIC subsides.
      This does not play to Harris’s base.

    2. Yeah—I’ve done a lot of pro bono work on behalf of tenants being evicted, and (at least with the bigger landlords/property management companies), the “pain in the ass” tenants are the ones being evicted.

      The same property manager would forgive months of back rent in an effort to help Tenant A (a good tenant) avoid eviction, while refusing to budge over an outstanding late fee for Tenant B.

      It usually isn’t hard to figure out which clients were which—the “Tenant Bs” of the world are the ones who are completely ungrateful for the free legal representation, and think I’ve failed them by not recovering tens of thousands of dollars on their behalf.

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  19. Kamala is so two faced and one of them is back at the shop.

  20. Another problem with these programs is that they encourage people to rent beyond their means and then rally for another pandemic so they can get to stay free. It’s similar to the fiscal crisis of 2008 where people got NINJA loans and then squatted in their McMansions for years.

    And then people like me are left to bear the brunt of the relentless ‘grandma killer’ abuse.

    Anyway the solution isn’t rent control but instead for rich people to establish no-frills retirement colonies. This will take the pressure off the rental market, and landlords will have to work with tenants.

  21. Canadian centre for disease control recommends the use of glory holes because of covid-19.

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    1. And if you even considering using one then you are probably a famous politician who doesn’t want to be recognized anyway. Win win!

  22. When a legislator’s staff is drafting a bill, what percentage of the total effort goes into considering the impact of the potential law and what percentage goes into devising a title that can be contorted into an easy-to-sell acronym?

  23. A lot of renters will just leave, instead of paying the arrears.

  24. If it is a govt priority to keep tenants/homeowners in their homes (IF!) then he govt should pay for it. Let’s do our best to take a simple solution and make it complicated. Simple solution is to give tenants rent vouchers (not cash). This can be handled by Section 8 and HUD entities that do that now with probably minimal increases in their overhead. This also guarantees the money gets to the proper place.

    1. That doesn’t sound like a simple solution at all. A simpler solution might be to provide a direct cash subsidy to those who find themselves unemployed… say, 600 dollars a week maybe.

      If an extra $2,400 a month in unemployment doesn’t cover the rent payment, then I have a hard time feeling sorry for someone having to find cheaper housing.

      Basically I’m agreeing with your “(IF!)”; there never should have been any extra government interventions into the housing/rent market.

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  26. And then people like me are left to bear the brunt of the relentless ‘grandma killer’ abuse.

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