Reason Roundup

If 18 Months of Extreme Social Distancing Is What It Takes To Stop Coronavirus, We're Doomed

Plus: Facebook goes on an accidental purge of COVID-19 content, and Big Tech could track the spread of the disease

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Imperial College London's influential analysis of how various coronavirus prevention measures would affect the spread of the disease has estimated that doing nothing would result in 510,000 deaths in Britain and another 2.2 million in America. That report, which convinced the British government to abandon its strategy of largely letting the disease run its course, is now available to the public.

The report also finds that disease-suppression policies—extreme social distancing, self-imposed quarantines, school and university closures, etc.—will need to be maintained until a vaccine is developed, which could take as long as 18 months.

"To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population—which could be 18 months or more," write the report's authors. "However, there are very large uncertainties around the transmission of this virus, the likely effectiveness of different policies and the extent to which the population spontaneously adopts risk reducing behaviours."

It is difficult to imagine people continuing to follow self-quarantine policies for weeks. It's impossible to imagine them doing it for a whole year. If that's what it's going to take to fully stop the spread of COVID-19, it's worth wondering whether we should admit defeat before we do any additional damage to the economy. Eighteen months of extreme social distancing isn't feasible.

John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, raises some of these issues in a terrific post for Stat. Ioannidis wonders whether long-term and "draconian countermeasures" to combat coronavirus can be justified, given how uncertain they are to work and how little data we have about COVID-19's true mortality rate:

"The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don't know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror—and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data—there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew—the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases—a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It's like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies."

Ioannidis also notes that "in the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns," but "we do not know if these measures work."

The worst-case scenario may be extremely bad—much worse than his numbers suggest—but again, bringing much of human civilization to a halt for multiple months or years is not really a viable solution.

FREE MINDS

Facebook's spam-detection algorithm went haywire, causing the social media site to mistakenly take down tons of legitimate articles about COVID-19. People attempting to share information about the coronavirus were told that they had violated community standards. Articles from a number of publications—Reason included—were flagged.

The issue—a bug in an automated system—was fixed late Tuesday night.

FREE MARKETS

The federal government wants to work with tech companies to track the spread of the coronavirus by analyzing the movement patterns of smartphone users. According to The Washington Post:

"Public-health experts are interested in the possibility that private-sector companies could compile the data in anonymous, aggregated form, which they could then use to map the spread of the infection, according to three people familiar with the effort, who requested anonymity because the project is in its early stages.

Analyzing trends in smartphone owners' whereabouts could prove to be a powerful tool for health authorities looking to track coronavirus, which has infected more than 180,000 people globally. But it's also an approach that could leave some Americans uncomfortable, depending on how it's implemented, given the sensitivity when it comes to details about their daily whereabouts.

In recent interviews, Facebook executives said the U.S. government is particularly interested in understanding patterns of people's movements, which can be derived through data the company collects from users who allow it. The tech giant in the past has provided this information to researchers in the form of statistics, which in the case of coronavirus, could help officials predict the next hotspot or decide where to allocate overstretched health resources.

'We're encouraged by American technology companies looking to leverage aggregate, anonymized data to glean key insights for covid-19 modeling efforts,' said an official with the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, who spoke only on condition of anonymity."

On the one hand, it's incredible that advances in technology have produced the possibility for real-time tracking of the spread of a pandemic. This data could be put to very good use in efforts to thwart the disease. On the other hand, collecting data on people's movements and giving it to the government sets off civil libertarian alarm bells.

QUICK HITS

  • Donald Trump has officially won the Republican Party's presidential nomination.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden cruised to victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) in the Illinois, Arizona, and Florida primaries.
  • More regulations that should be eliminated forever, not just in the face of the coronavirus:

  • The D.C. metro is reducing service even further.
  • Titania McGrath is wisely addressing the real issues: "There is a pandemic sweeping the globe and it has to be stopped. It is called 'free speech.'"
  • Still more regulations that should be eliminated forever:

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NEXT: Tyler Cowen Thinks Coronavirus Could Be This Generation’s World War II

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  1. More internal DoJ obama era emails showing them telling Mueller they dont think Flynn was lying. We know what happened.

    https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/yates-other-obama-doj-officials-sounded-alarm-about-fbis-treatment

    1. Hello.

      I like the cut of Ioannidis’s gib.

      What troubles me is the cavalier attitude of the ‘do something, anything’ crowd based on unreliable data. This is not to say it isn’t serious but I fear the cure will be far worse than the disease.

      I agree it’s just not feasible. 18 months? I’m two weeks in here and just about ready to bust a nut.

      Hope cooler heads prevail.

      1. I still don’t see, to add, why we can’t just isolate the most vulnerable as opposed to these draconian measures where the youth and healthy are being asked to sacrifice their routines and lives for a small demographic.

        Maybe I’m missing something.

        1. No, you are not missing something. But, most folks like me (retired), from what I can tell in my neck of the woods, have already pretty much self-quarantined themselves.

        2. Maybe some other country will try that approach and we’ll find out, but freaking out will continue long after it serves any useful purpose

          1. Britain was trying it. They caved.

            1. They caved because the Imperial College produced a massively inflated number to induce panic.

          2. The Dutch are doing exactly that. Apply resources to the risk groups, everyone else is on their own, and no lock-downs.

            The theory is to develop herd immunity among those who contract and survive it, and most people below age 65 survive it and suffer only mild symptoms with self-care.

            The danger with all this lock-down bullshit is that once the controls are relaxed you expose a new group to the virus and it becomes a perpetual state of emergency with economic damage only intensifying. You turn a short, nasty situation into a prolonged, nasty one.

            My money’s on Holland.

            1. The point isn’t to limit how many people are eventually exposed – it’s probably going to be nearly everyone anyway – but to spread the cases out in time, so the hospitals are not overwhelmed by the few percent of serious cases. The USA has more Intensive Care Unit beds per capita than most of the First World, but not nearly enough for an extra 10,000 patients going on ventilators in the same week. Spread those cases out far enough, and we’ll be fine.

        3. Social distancing for a year or so shouldn’t be a huge problem. A lot of work can still get done without sitting side by side with people. I don’t think actual isolation will be necessary except for the older people. There seems to be a lot of progress on combating the disease directly. I think we need to be and are going to be highly inconvenienced, but outside of maybe New York and a couple other cities, we’ll be ok.

          1. “Social distancing for a year or so shouldn’t be a huge problem. ”

            This is EXTREME social distancing. Right now every casino in Nevada is closed. MGM is guaranteeing its employees 2 weeks of pay. Other resorts are covering 30 days. All of them are starting layoffs.

            That cannot go on for 18 months. It is a huge problem that the services industry is basically on lock down.

            1. Auto manufacturers have now shut down.

              https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ap-source-detroit-automakers-shut-factories-69666401

              This is snowballing fast.

              1. I’m wondering if this is really about protecting their employees, or if they _have_ to shut down anyway due to parts shortages. A modern automobile needs tens of thousands of parts. If just one becomes unavailable because the Chinese plant making some precursor to it is shut down, the assembly line shuts down.

                Example: I used to work for a small plant in Grand Rapids, MI, that assembles electronics, mainly low-value items for automobiles. For instance, there’s an LED tail-light assembly, with 5 small boards mounted in a big piece of plastic – and the mirror-image for the other side of the car has 5 more small boards. All of the bare PCB’s come from China. If any of those 10 PCB’s is unavailable because of Chinese shutdowns, this plant will send at least 30 workers home – but without a tail-light, the cars cannot be built, so the assembly plant will lay off about 1,000 workers.

                Now, this is temporary. The PCB assembly plant will be seeking new sources for the PCB’s – and if they don’t have a solution soon, the auto company will be seeking a new supplier for the tail lights. But it will be months before the new supplier can begin delivering sufficient quantities to open the assembly line…

        4. Lefties dont give a shit about old people.

          The plan is to destroy economies to allow Socialism to get a firm and more heavy handed grip of governments again.

          1. You’re a fcking nutjob

            Every single post of yours is nothing but lunatic ravings.

            As much as you hate us, lefties are human beings and in fact we are strong empaths. RWers were the ones who kept denying this threat that hurt the elderly the most, not us. We tried to wake you up, but you won’t listen to us because we’re ‘lefties.’

      2. I agree with you. It’s not feasible. It’s why in reality these sorts of epidemics always occur in waves. Have often read about that in doing history research. But gotta admit – can’t REALLY understand why until it’s experienced. NOW I can understand why it’s always happened that way before.

        1. At core – what is feasible to us humans is not at all the same as what’s feasible to that virus

          1. “That virus”? They aren’t a virus, they’re parasites – and we elected them.

      3. Ioannidis is great. But he has made a career of debunking academic claims and documenting failures in reproducibility. So, ironically, he might be a bit biased in his analysis here.

        We don’t get to run this simulation multiple times and optimize our behavior. It’s not unreasonable to rely on prior experience with flu pandemics etc.

        I’m trying to get my head around what appears to have been an insanely low rate of infection in China, in hindsight.

        1. The Chinese numbers are almost certainly complete bullshit. If their reported numbers are anywhere near accurate then their response was almost certainly a vast over reaction. The crackdown on any non-party approved information, the hasty building of all those “waiting rooms for death” ie hospitals, all point to conditions far more serious than the West seems willing to accept.

          1. Their reported numbers seem pretty accurate from what I can see. They did early on decide not to report the ‘ground glass’ xrays except for the one day of data. So they presumably didn’t report any more of those or positive test results that don’t result in hospitalization/admission (which is probably a similar universe – less serious cases but still symptomatic might result in ground glass damage to lungs). But if you take that confirmed case number as their serious/hospitalized number, then multiply by 7 or so and that’s a reasonable estimate for their total cases/infected. My guess is they are keeping that secret so that they can own any antibody or vaccine data or even biowarfare virus info that results.

            Their deaths are definitely and clearly low. People in Hubei/Wuhan obviously died during the lockdown without even getting to hospital. I doubt they did autopsies. Not necessarily died cuz Covid but cuz in any group of 55 million some will die in any two month period. Outside Hubei, I’m sure people died in hospital in Feb who prob had Covid but they were admitted/treated for something else and were never tested.

            The second I heard (with videos on youtube) that Xi went to Wuhan a couple weeks ago – that’s pretty much all the evidence you need that they have contained the first wave. The Chinese wouldn’t be so clueless as to roll out red carpets and ceremony in the middle of an uncontrolled epidemic and think that info/propaganda could be controlled.

            They locked down Wuhan with less than 500 confirmed cases and 17 deaths there – and less than 600 confirmed cases in all of China. And Hubei down ever since. The tactic is effective at containing spread. Done for long enough at killing future spread.

      4. I think your comments are on target. Unfortunately, politics and social media have taken hold for now, with officials trying to “out-safety” each other, and social shaming of anyone who dares to disagree with draconian measures.

  2. …doing nothing would result in 510,000 deaths in Britain and another 2.2 million in America.

    Stay calm and if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

    1. +1 Neil Peart

      1. RIP

        1. Shit! The coronavirus got Neil? Is it time to panic now?

          1. It’s absolutely time to panic. Neil’s cancer was a comorbidity, but the coronavirus is so powerful that it killed him in Santa Monica before the first case in the US was diagnosed. If it can kill Neil Peart from across the Pacific, it’s certainly capable of killing the rest of us once it’s here.

  3. Speaking of political criminal trials… msnbc analyst thinks Trump should be charged with negligent homicide over Covid19.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-glenn-kirschner-trump-coronavirus

    1. Yet, just now Europe is copying Trump’s action by finally closing their borders

      1. Russia, Singapore, Mongolia, all closed borders. For some reason they have a very small infection rate.

        1. Their turn will come.

      2. I wish they would just close Wash DC and be done with it.

    2. By that logic, every First and Second World leader should be lined up and shot, including their boos Xi, Trudeau and Merkel.

      1. Don’t forget every member of Congress and every state and local official.

  4. Facebook’s spam-detection algorithm went haywire, causing the social media site to mistakenly take down tons of legitimate articles about COVID-19.

    The virus has finally been transmitted to A.I.!

    1. There used to be a concept in data processing (before it became “IT”) called ‘testing the software’.

      1. no time for that now.

  5. The federal government wants to work with tech companies to track the spread of the coronavirus by analyzing the movement patterns of smartphone users.

    …and then deplatform infected conservatives.

  6. In December 2013, Biden flew to Beijing on Air Force Two with his son Hunter on an official trip, ostensibly to discuss tensions over disputed territories in the East China Sea. Joe and Hunter were ushered into a red-carpet meeting with a delegation of various Chinese officials. Hunter remained with the delegation while his father met with President Xi Jinping. During these meetings Joe Biden struck an extremely conciliatory and friendly tone with the Chinese leadership — much to the dismay of America’s allies in the region.

    Ten day later, Hunter’s two-year-old company, Rosemont Seneca, signed an exclusive $1 Billion (later expanded to $1.5 Billion) deal with the state-owned Bank of China, creating an investment fund called Bohai Harvest, with money guaranteed by the Chinese Government. As Peter Schweizer, who was the first to unveil these conflicts of interest, wrote in his book Secret Empires “the Chinese Government was literally funding a business that it co-owned along with the son of one of America’s most powerful decision makers” That is what it looks like to be “compromised by a foreign power.”

    1. How is this news? Don’t you know some NBA player has contracted the virus????

    2. “the Chinese Government was literally funding a business that it co-owned along with the son of one of America’s most powerful decision makers”

      Calling fake news on this. I highly doubt Joe has the mental faculties to make a decision let alone a powerful one.

      1. That was then; this is now – – – – –

      2. To be fair, it’s not him calling the shots. Hell, if he’s elected, his “speechwriters” will largely be copy-editors from Goldman Sachs and Citibank.

    3. What? I can’t hear you! There’s a virus more powerful than any white noise machine known to man drowning you out.

  7. Donald Trump has officially won the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

    Bill Weld hardest hit.

    1. Unfortunately, not in the face.

      1. I’m a big fan of the groin shot for situations like this one.

        1. You know who else favored groin shots on political opponents…

          1. Cartman?

  8. Reminder of the freakout that wasnt during H1N1… which killed far more people than Covid so far.

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/did-obama-botch-the-response-to-the-h1n1-outbreak-heres-what-media-fact-checks-arent-telling-you/

    With China on the decline, we have population percentage numbers of infection. The infection rate was less than 1 tenth of one percent in China. Everybody panic.

    Latest estimate is 86% of carriers will show no or very mild symptoms. Everybody panic.

    1. 1% of the impact of the Wu Flu is the actual physical affects.

      99% is manmade, action/reaction, self-imposed and utterly avoidable.

      1. *effects

        1. How I remember it:

          A ffects are Actions.
          E ffects are the End result.

    2. In the United States alone there were over 60 million cases of H1N1, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010.

      but…

      The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_United_States_flu_season

      But CDC report is a bit less alarming. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm

    1. I had all the symptoms in January.

  9. Trump is cutting hefty regulations on medical equipment development. Reason again silent on deregulation, but very loud on tariffs as causing Covid19. Also reason still silent on China ordering ships to turn around and return supplies paid for. Free Markets!

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/03/17/trump-admin-cuts-red-tape-to-speed-up-the-supply-chain-and-get-essential-goods-to-n2565062

    1. “Trump is cutting hefty regulations on medical equipment development.”

      Yet the USA remains the ONLY NATION ON THE PLANET were I need the permission of a doctor of doctorology to buy a cheap plastic “lung flute”! WHEN is Dear Leader going to get off of His Fat Lazy Ass, and give me the same amount of “lung flute freedom” that the people of North Korea have? WHEN!?!?!

      To find precise details on what NOT to do, to avoid the flute police, please see http://www.churchofsqrls.com/DONT_DO_THIS/ … This has been a pubic service, courtesy of the Church of SQRLS!

      1. You don’t need permission to buy one.

        Only to claim medical benefit when you sell one.

        1. http://www.lungflute.com/BUY-LungFlute.aspx

          “Patients in the USA or any US Territory require a prescription to buy the Lung Flute
          Once you have a prescription you can buy the Lung Flute directly online
          Lung Flute orders for Canada or Mexico do not require a prescription”

          Our Lords and Masters at the FDA Have Spoken!!! We little babies must look to Nanny State to blow on a cheap plastic flute, which is less intrusive into our body than a tooth brush! This is straight off of their web site as of today. Crappy-crap from Top Men has NOT changed!

          1. You should kill yourself, and free up essential supplies that could go to decent people.

            1. Shitsy Shitler, drinking Shitsy Kool-Aid in a spiraling vortex of darkness, cannot or will not see the Light… It’s a VERY sad song! Kinda like this…

              He’s a real Kool-Aid Man,
              Sitting in his Kool-Aid Land,
              Playing with his Kool-Aid Gland,
              Has no thoughts that help the people,
              He wants to turn them all to sheeple!
              On the sheeple, his Master would feast,
              Master? A disaster! Just the nastiest Beast!
              Kool-Aid man, please listen,
              You don’t know, what you’re missin’,
              Kool-Aid man, better thoughts are at hand,
              The Beast, to LEAVE, you must COMMAND!

              A helpful book is to be found here: M. Scott Peck, Glimpses of the Devil
              https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1439167265/reasonmagazinea-20/

    2. Demented Pro-Trump commentors here (like JesseSPAZ) think themselves to be Constitutional Scholars, and bless the idea that the Trumptatorship has “absolute rights”. ‘Cause Trump says so!!!
      https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/president-trump-absolute-rights/607168/
      Donald Trump’s Strange and Dangerous ‘Absolute Rights’ Idea
      This is a profound misunderstanding of the American constitutional system.

      END TITLES IMPORTS

      Yet Trump can’t bring Himself to go on a much-needed head-chopping (douchebag-firing, layoffs) spree at the FDA, until such time as the USA has as much freedom as ALL OTHER NATIONS ON THE PLANET have, to blow on OTC cheap plastic flutes! Super-Trump, where are you now? North Koreans have more cheap-plastic-flutes freedoms than we do!

      1. Hi ABC.

        Still retarded I see.

        1. You’ve gone full Tulpa. Never go full Tulpa.

          1. They’re all just NPCs. How else could one explain how they all spout the same paranoid bullshit?

            1. This… in defense of fn sqrlsy.
              You’ve reached a new low

              1. Who cares who it’s in defense of? The constant accusations of socking are tiring and (more often than not) unfounded. Anyone who seriously thinks ABC, SQRLSY, and Hihn are the same person is either dumb or trolling.

                1. 100% Hihn.

                  You seriously don’t see the similarities in writing?

                2. ABC, SQRLSY, and Hihn (all in common) do NOT engage in abjectly worshipping Dear Leader, not in knee-jerk GOP-botism. These simple things are enough for the simpleton Trumpbots to lump them all together! Either you are WITH the Trump, or you are a Devout Stalinist!

                  1. If,it makes you feel any better, I don’t believe you’re either. I just think you’re a worthless idiot that should kill itself. Period.

                    Hope that helps you.

                3. If you noticed, it is Sqrsly following me around, not vice versa. I only reply on his replies. He also outed himself yesterday as a sock. He has done this before as well.

                  1. Of course, Sqrsly is a sock. But it is unlikely that the same person is running more than one unhinged sock. It must take a lot of energy to maintain such a persona. (This does not count Tulpa, as all of his socks are the same)

                    OTOH, that lung flute would have helped me years ago, when my allergies were not under control.

              2. It’s not a defense of anything. It’s just annoyance at idiocy. And also partly a joke.
                Anyway, what’s so horrible about sqrlsy? He’s kind of a dope sometimes, but so what? If you don’t find him amusing or interesting, just keep scrolling.

                1. It’s all about unreason clicks anyway.

                2. Sqrlsy is a piece of trash who destroys every thread

            2. All of those who do not worship Dear Leader, and adore the Trumptatorship, are leftists and Stalinists! It is known!

              1. fuck this posted in the wrong place somehow

                1. Ouch.
                  That’s a bad one

          2. Leo, this is a sad response, even for you.

            1. If anything it’s an acknowledgement that you at least contribute a viewpoint here, unlike Tulpa who seems to only care about outing socks and ad hominem attacks. Except for in this sub-thread where you literally act like Tulpa.

              1. No, I don’t. Tulpa will respond to any reply. I responded to Sqrsly who has been cut/pasting his ignorance as a reply to me in multiple threads. Yesterday he outed himself as ABC when he started posting only in my replies to ABC. He has done this before as well.

                If I was Tulpa I’d respond to every Sqrsly post, not just his replies to my original post.

                Also defending Sqrsly is the height of ignorance. His posts are worthless. Even when you point out why his posts are worthless, he continues to post the same cut/pastes.

                Weird you attack my reply, but ignore Sqrsly.

                1. I ignore Tulpa too. That should tell you something.

                2. I mostly ignore Leo too.

                  unreason sends in the sock troll to boost web traffic. They alternate because its easier to act like their simply all these great new posters who LOVE unreason’s garbage articles and Lefty viewpoints.

              2. And to continue, I never respond to Sqrsly unless he replies to me. It is worthless to talk with that sock because he refuses to have an actual rational discussion. If he ignored my posts you would never see me respond to him. He isn’t worth the time. Typing Hi ABC after he outed himself takes so little time, it will be my response to him in the near future.

                1. How is your theory about “words can’t be crimes” working for you, liar? Have you yet tried using “mere words” to threaten the life of Comrade Bernie, or other person-who-is-more-equal-than-the-rest-of-us?! Or are you a totally lying, hypocritical, gasbag blowhard? Or are you posting from your prison cell?

                  1. You just proved his point. Kill yourself

                    1. You are an evil moron who knows nothing other than evil. You will meet your maker one of these days, and it ain’t gonna be pretty! What comes around, goes around, death-lover!

        2. So right here and now, we’ve clearly established that JesseSPAZ supports All Powers to the Super-Trump, yet Super-Trump refuses to give us freedoms to blow on OTC, cheap plastic flutes! So much for the super-powers of the Super-Trump being used to give us freedom!

          And the BEST response that JesseSPAZ can come up with, is to call freedom-lovers retards!!!

          NOW we see the violence in the system!

          1. No, i’ve clearly stated what I said over a dozen times. Your lack of education keeps you returning to your original ignorance reading of what I posited in that thread. It is you basically proving you are incapable of rational thought, as seen by every post. You at least try to be rational on your ABC sock.

            1. Trump worship is rational, and Trump scepticism is irrational, stupid, retarded, etc. That’s what you’ve told us many-many times. No matter HOW hyperbolic your Trumptatorship-worship becomes, you will NEVER take ANY of it back! You are every bit as full of self-adoration and self-righteous, infallible narcissism as your Dear Leader is.

              Have you ever considered that, after you (and your fellow Trumpbots) gather every last new iota of power for your Dear Leader that you can, it will fall into the hands of either Comrade Bernie or Biden? Or some other Demonrat in 2024 elections? What will you do and say then?

              1. You have basically admitted you don’t understand basic concepts or terms utilized in constitutional discussions. Unbounded powers, in reference to constitutional powers, is not a new term, and has been around for 200 years. I pointed this out to you just a few weeks ago. But your ignorance is so rock solid that you completely ignore it. I try to help you, but you choose ignorance.

                1. Unbounded = boundless = infinite, Oh Wise Constitutional Scholar! Don’t come bitching to me, after you and your fellow Trumpbots gather infinite powers for the Trumptatorship, and they (powers) end up in the hands of the likes of Comrade Bernie! What’s good for the goose, is good for the gander! Thanks for greasing the skids towards utter tyranny by “Top Men”!

    3. https://reason.com/2020/02/07/michael-bloomberg-and-the-imperious-presidency-2/#comment-8120734

      JesseSPAZ comment: “He can fire political appointees for any fucking reason he wants.”
      Jesse’s over-archingly lusting after the super-powers of the Trumptorship YET AGAIN!!!
      Trump can fire them for not assigning their entire paychecks to Trump… For not licking Trump’s balls as much as JesseSPAZ does… For turning down Trump’s requests for then to perform personal murder-for-hire… For having fucked Stormy Daniels out of turn, when it was Trump’s turn… For Air Force Captain-Sir-Dude-Sir-Pilot-Sir refusing orders to go and bomb Nancy Pelosi’s house…

      Just when I was rooting for JesseSPAZ to turn from his evil ways, he doubles down on Trumptatorship-worship AGAIN!

      Come ON now, Jesse! SURELY you can get Dear Leader to fire FDA officials until we have some lung flute freedoms?

    4. One of the first things Reason published about this was about how excessive regulation makes it harder to test people and get good information.

      1. So they’re mad at Trump for reducing their opportunity to bitch?

        1. And all it cost us was the economy and a functioning society

          1. Damn it
            Thread fail

  10. So a high chance of 20% unemployment being scared and doing stupid things. Or a 1% chance of dying by doing not much at all.

    The doing nothing solution sounds good. Also isn’t that what you realized when you did your climate change analysis?

    1. Doing nothing is seemingly always the best option.

      1. Especially when the actual choice is ‘doing nothing by government force of arms’ vs. ‘letting individuals what is appropriate to their own circumstance’.

        1. “I don’t wanna do nothing, there’s plenty to do!
          The question I ponder is: Who plans for whom?
          Do I plan for myself, or leave it to you?
          I want plans by the many, not by the few”

      2. Least bad option. Best option is a magic wand and flying unicorns that crap gold nuggets but if you don’t have those things you should probably just leave bad enough alone and don’t mess with stuff you don’t understand.

    2. Yeah, I can’t believe that the reaction isn’t causing far more harm to more people than the disease possibly could.

      1. State supremacists will claim these measures saved millions of lives

        1. Nardz
          March.18.2020 at 10:49 am
          And all it cost us was the economy and a functioning society

          ^this goes here

      2. Zeb, the disease has done pretty close to no harm at all.

        I just noticed Pandemic sounds a lot like Pandemonium.

        Incredible overreaction and we can’t even blame millenials.

        1. I have a feeling we might see more of these panics for rather routine health issues as Boomers start to enter “real” old-age. Not just retirement age, but late 70s and 80s, where everyone you know starts die off, and you know that you’re not far behind. Generations through the Greatest Generation had generally experienced real hardship (including gruesome wars and REAL diseases/pandemics where there really was nothing you could do but stand by and watch loved ones die); Boomers have always lived in the modern era, with all the advantages brought by the incredible output and innovation of WWII in particular. Some of them are incapable of making peace with their own mortality, and while there have probably always been people like that, this generation loves to bitch and moan about how unfair life is. Combined with a society that seems has gone full retard with “safety first” and “every death is a tragedy,” Boomers are going to demand the world keep them from dying of old age because it’s just not fair.

        2. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

          7,323 confirmed cases in USA. 115 deaths.

          IIRC there were 6k something cases yesterday. I am sure there are plenty of sick people not getting tested.

          This is hysteria.

    3. And you don’t even have to do “nothing at all”. You can still follow some intelligent voluntary protocols that have no negative economic effects and probably make that 1% death rate closer to 0.1%. And if you’re not old and decrepit, more like 0.01%.

      1. All of the handwashing and social distancing techniques will not change the death rate one iota. (supposing that we are talking about the percentage of people who catch it and go on to die)

        They will change the infection rate. Which affects the number of deaths.

        Unless you have more cases than you have room for in the hospitals. Then you start to affect the death rate.

        If healthcare officials are to be believed, this is all aimed at avoiding the latter scenario.

        Absent the example of Italy, I would say this whole thing is a fools errand – all cost and no benefit. But Italy is the counterargument.

    4. But why are those the only two choices?

      How about, the elderly and sick stay home, those exposed quarantine, and everyone else live a normal life?

      That would have far less cost (although not nothing) and probably be almost as effective.

  11. The H1N1 outbreak originated in Mexico. Despite calls from members of Congress to do so, the Obama administration refused to restrict travel with Mexico or close the border. “Closing our nation’s borders is not merited here,” said Obama’s DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano when a national health emergency was declared. She argued that closing the border or U.S. ports would have “no impact or very little” in stopping or slowing the spread of the virus.

    Trump proved this theory wrong when he took the bold step of banning travel from China back in January. He got criticized for it, but a month later WHO experts conceded that it worked and it saved lives. While countries like Italy and Iran were experiencing catastrophic outbreaks, the United States was not.

    If Trump’s decision to close travel with China saved lives, Obama’s decision not to close travel with Mexico cost lives.

    Obama was so concerned about appearing that he had things under control (even though he clearly didn’t) that he actually played golf the same day he declared a public health emergency because obviously the public would think he had things under control and there was no reason to panic if he had time to golf.

    1. when was Obama not playing golf

      1. Obama was not playing golf about 300% more than Trump doesn’t play golf. https://trumpgolfcount.com/

        1. Obama went to a fundraiser when the Bengazi consulate was under attack. Obama was far and away the laziest and most negligent President of the last 100 years. A US Ambassador is under attack by a terrorist force and he told Hillary and his Sec Def to handle it and went to a fund raiser. Obama was a vacuous idiot and the prefect president for vacuous idiots like you who supported him.

          1. He was clean, but uppity.

            1. I wonder if John will get what you did here.

              1. We all know Democrat leadership likes them some uppity niggers now.

                They control the other Black democrat voters.

          2. That is ridiculous. Obama had the guy who made the youtube video that precipitated that attack arrested in short order. Everything was buttoned up and the crisis was averted.

          3. He also learned about everything by ‘watching the news’.

    1. Cuomo’s actually been pretty solid on this thing so far.
      Even slapped down DeBlasio’s “shelter in place order” suggestion.
      It’s weird

      1. Cuomo – RINO 2024!!!!

      2. Never to worry… his kin is getting the job done on CNN in spades.

  12. STOCKHOLM — Sweden will close its borders to most visitors from non-EU countries from March 19, Home Affairs Minister Mikael Damberg said on Tuesday.

    The move follows a decision by European Union leaders to close the bloc’s external borders for 30 days to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

    1. Xenophobic! Racist!

    2. Bet it would be nice to have the option of restricting visitors from within the EU as well. Time for Swexit.

    3. Sweden will close its borders to most visitors from non-EU countries

      That’s like closing the barn doors after all the weasels, badgers, coyotes, wolves, wolverines, Tasmanian devils and skunks ran in.

  13. Bryan Dean Wright
    @BryanDeanWright
    ·
    17h
    Bloomberg spent $500M+ on his vanity run for the White House.

    He’s offering $40M to combat the Wuhan virus — abroad.

    1. He could just give 40 million people a million dollars instead!

      1. Or even a billion!

    2. Now do Trump.

      Although he is offering a ton of OUR money.

      1. Now do Trump

        Ok, I’ll try.

        “Trump didn’t spend 500 million on a vanity run for the White House, and probably donated very little personally toward combating the Wuhan Flu”

        What am I missing?

        1. Trump funded a large portion of his primary campaign, or at least at one point said he did (the internet is pretty mixed about how much he actually spent). I’m sure he didn’t spend as much of his own money as Bloomie, but then again he probably hasn’t spent much of his own money on the Corona Virus either.

          I don’t get why anybody on a libertarian site would care how someone spends their own money, especially in an attempt to shame him for *only* spending $40M on public health.

          1. You seem to care, because you brought up Trump for some reason.

            1. I like to point out hypocrisy.

              I dislike Bloomberg probably as much as anybody here. But it’s noble that he was willing to give $40M to a cause he believes in, regardless of how much money he has or how much he “wasted” on his campaign. And honestly if Trump never gives a dollar to charity, I would never hold that against him.

              1. But it’s noble that he was willing to give $40M to a cause he believes in

                Oh, you mean like the draconian gun control groups and politicians he funds? What the hell is noble about that? Fuck off with this weak-ass apologia.

                1. We’re talking about him giving money to the corona virus monster. It’s noble, even if it will probably be misappropriated by whatever bureaucracy administers it. The OP was implying that if he doesn’t give half a billion to it like he did the campaign then it’s nothing but a joke. $40M is still more than all of us could ever give to any charity over the course of our lives… combined.

                  1. “All hail the nobility”

                  2. I’m not sure how donating $40 million to an effort that you admit will likely be misappropriated makes it noble. Are we really arguing in favor of the position that intentions make it okay?

              2. “I like to point out hypocrisy.”

                OK but you didn’t. You said “do Trump” and I did, and it wasn’t the same.

      2. >>Now do Trump.

        Trump won.

      3. Now do Trump

        Why?

        Bloomberg spent 500 million to buy himself a place on a stage that he did not qualify for while people who DID qualify were excluded.

        Trump didn’t do anything like that.

        What Bloomberg did–and the way the DNC and the media bent over backward for him is a disgrace they will carry in perpetuity.

  14. Former Vice President Joe Biden cruised to victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) in the Illinois, Arizona, and Florida primaries.

    And in the race to the early bird special.

  15. The D.C. metro is reducing service even further.

    You can count on us!

    1. “We’re on fire for you!”

  16. We are working on a plan to allow for closed container beer and wine alongside takeout food from your favorite New Hampshire restaurants.

    No doubt working overtime to make that plan as complex and incomprehensible as possible.

    1. Just think of the taxez!

      1. NH has no liquor taxes.

        1. Yet.

    1. Neither does the verge tbh

  17. Someone at The New York Times thinks the solution is to “Bring Back Big Government.”

    Bill Clinton is rolling over in his grave.

  18. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/16/nolte-mass-transit-reusable-bags-and-other-leftist-ideas-coronavirus-reveals-as-deadly/

    With some experts predicting, at a minimum, anywhere from 480,000 to 1.6 million American deaths from the coronavirus over the next three to 18 months, how smart does urban living, mass transit, open borders, reusable straws, reusable grocery bags, reusable water bottles, gun restrictions, over-regulated housing, using the Centers for Disease Control to fight gun violence, and outsourcing to China look now?

    1. Yes that’s right. Everything you hate caused the virus.

      1. Well, yes, it did.
        I hate communism and all of its associated abuse of humans.

    2. When these predictions end up being horseshit they can parade around triumphant that their measures worked. If it happens they can say see we told you and we need to do more next time. Heads I win tails we lose.

      1. Also the only lesson that will be learned from this will be to give the CDC a larger budget even though they botched the testing phase from the get go.

      2. Need to do more next time? More than likely they’ll keep all the new regulations in place.

    3. Don’t read breitbart, for fucks sake. It’s mission statement is to be an ideological propaganda outlet. You would be better informed if you read nothing at all, and that’s not hyperbole.

      1. Didn’t the New York Times say in print their mission was to “get” the President during the Mueller investigation? I know CNN did behind closed doors to its employees.

        1. Yes, the NYT is a stealth propaganda rag that has only occasionally dropped the mask. Breitbart is an honest broker.

        2. So you’re response is to go to an equally bad or worse source? Stick to NPR, PBS, Reuters, AP, BBC, … there are a ton of good sources that aren’t literal propaganda arms of billionaire white supremacists.

          The current editor has admitted to pushing fake news. He admits to attacking the reputations of Roy Moore accusers because they were afraid that giving sexual assault accusers any legitimacy would hurt Trump down the road (lol). He admits to believing that some of them, including one girl who was 14 at the time of Moore’s assault, were assaulted by Moore. And he still tries to justify going after their reputations. Disgusting.

          Stop reading it. Stop supporting it. If you hate biased media and fake news, then stop supporting biased media and fake news.

          https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/breitbart-fake-news-alex-marlow/

          1. WTF are you babbling about, you moron? NPR? I’m talking about the New York Times and CNN being and you are talking about Roy Moore? Your “sources” suck just as bad as Breitbart, which was the point

          2. Pedo Jeffy, when are you coming to visit? You were talking big shit last week. Or are you engaging in some ‘social distancing’?

          3. Every outfit you listed is a goddamn propaganda outlet.

  19. “Imperial College London’s influential analysis of how various coronavirus prevention measures would affect the spread of the disease has estimated that doing nothing would result in 510,000 deaths in Britain and another 2.2 million in America.”

    Just like with global warming, they can now claim they saved us even if only 10000 people die.

    1. “”To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population—which could be 18 months or more,” ”

      Do you know what laboratory is really good at making vaccines? The human body. Namely the 80% who express mild or no symptoms.

      1. The 80% who were tested and presented mild or no symptoms.

        Apparently, for every person tested there are 5-7 out there who have it whose symptoms were so mild that they didn’t bother.

        That means that 500-700% more people than we think have been infected.

        By a disease they didn’t even notice.

    2. “Undertaking: The Career of the Future”

    3. This honestly sucks. If the UK had held strong, we’d actually have been able top tell at the end of this if everyone had been overreacting or not. People could have just looked at the UK death rate and compared it to their own.

      1. I think I’ll be able to tell. In fact, I think I can already tell.

      2. Isn’t Denmark still practicing no lockdown?

        1. I don’t know. I’d only heard about the UK doing so.

  20. Someone at The New York Times thinks the solution is to “Bring Back Big Government.” How can we bring back something that never left?

    Isn’t that pretty much their solution to everything? “MOAR GUVERMINT!!111!!11!!!!! DERP!!11!!!!”

  21. DJIA when The Dotard was sworn in was 19,827.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-stock-market-trump-inauguration-20170120-story.html

    Dow fell below 20,000 today – wiping out all its gains since the Con Man became top man.

    1. #TrumpVirus

      1. Kidd is Raper won’t have enough money to chloroform more than one kid a week. And he might not be able to afford that hot new windowless panel van he’s been eyeballing.

    2. He’s doing the best he can with Obama’s economy.

      1. +1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

        A month ago Lefties were going on and on about how in 2020, this was Obama’s economic genius which got us here.

        All of a sudden…crickets.

      1. #DotardRecession2020

        The Buttplug called it.

        1. You sure did. Honestly you deserve to take a victory lap for this:

          The tariffs will set off a harsh recession in 2020 and he will be gone anyway.

          It’s almost frightening how accurate you were. What we’re seeing now is so clearly the result of Drumpf’s departures from Koch / Reason economic policy.

          #DrumpfDepression

        2. You called it in 2017, but sure.

        3. Oh, and the bad thing about Recessions is it requires 2 quarters of negative growth. The problem is that if Covid ends up not being a problem in April, you’ll see plenty of growth in Q2. Whoops.

          1. I wouldn’t hold out hope for that.

            1. That’s because you don’t understand economics at even a base level.

              1. It can’t happen that fast. People will still be freaking out until the death rate has been zero for a few weeks at least.

              2. Yet here I am, making money on the downside while you and LC were shouting “buy buy buy” like a demented 2008 Jim Cramer, right before the biggest single day loss in history. And then you and Lc1789 did it a few more times, like a perfectly wrong time traveler from the future. Go back in the threads, I called out my stock sales at the end of January, and all you Trump cultists talked shit. Guess who is 30% richer from just going to cash? Guess who turned some of that cash into a leveraged short position a week ago?

                But please, tell us again how taxes aren’t related to deficits. Algebra? What’s that? Two sides of an equation? Poppycock!

                1. NPC doesn’t know the stock sell off started in late 2007.

                2. “Yet here I am, making money on the downside”

                  Liar.

                  1. I called out my sale of all stocks back in January. The evidence has been posted.

              3. Poor unreason sock trolls. Gillespie and unreason Boomer crew all shit themselves when their IRAs and 401ks took a shit because they dont know who to adjust their investments for market conditions.

                Kimberly Clark stock was relatively low on March 12 at $122.31, so some good buys in there. Sold a few hundred yesterday for about $140. Will keep some for another price jump.

                I decided to sell off a bunch of stock early 1Q 2020. I figured there would be an election year hysterical event to buy stock, I just didnt think it would be the KungFlu.

                1. BUY buy Buy!

                  1. Markets are down over 30% since you started pumping stocks.

                    Maybe you are a cooler.

                    1. A stupid blanket statement like that proves what a little liar you are Pedo Jeffy. Stick with your NAMBLA board. Adults are talking here.

    3. Huh, and all it took was a globally-induced mass panic over a Chink-produced virus to make it happen, as opposed to anything Trump actually did.

      Nice own-goal there, you hicklib pederast.

  22. Has anyone else here seen Lars von Trier’s Melancholia?

    *Spoiler Alert*

    It’s sort of a study in depression. It starts out with someone who’s depressed, but the reasons she’s depressed aren’t exactly irrational. She sees the world the way it is, and she’s disgusted by it, and the things that other people want that make them happy–she takes no joy in them. For her, it’s like the world has been destroyed. She wants to die, which is a lot like destroying the world.

    Anyway, a rogue planet we couldn’t see before on the other side of the sun breaks its orbit and comes careening to strike the earth. It’s the end of the world. Everyone keeps hoping that the scientists are wrong, but as it comes closer and closer to the earth, it becomes apparent that the world is about to end, and there’s nothing anyone can do. Suddenly, our depressed heroine becomes like the only rational person on earth. If there’s nothing you can do, there’s nothing you can do.

    Other people fill their SUVs with prepper supplies, put their kids inside it, and then can’t figure out where to drive to get away. It doesn’t matter where they go or what they do, the world is about to end, and there’s nothing they can do about it . . .

    That’s our government right now. A vaccine won’t be available for months, but cases are doubling every few days. We can slow the spread down, but the government can’t do anything to stop it from spreading eventually. Still, they’ll fill up the SUV with supplies like it matters because that’s all they can do–things that don’t really matter. I was thinking about that when listening to someone complain about people who are still going to restaurants and restaurants that still remain open. The people who complain about those who are still living their lives still haven’t come to terms with the realization that they’re going to be infected eventually.

    Those of us who have always understood that there were always things the government couldn’t really do anything about are like the rationally depressed in that movie. Running around blaming businesses for staying open or other people for doing whatever they want to do is like trying to avoid a collision with another planet by fleeing the city, too. If realizing that the government isn’t the solution to this problem freaks you out, if it’s any consolation, you might take a moment to realize that the government wasn’t the solution to our problems before the coronavirus either.

    1. Excellent comment, sir.

    2. “If realizing that the government isn’t the solution to this problem freaks you out, if it’s any consolation, you might take a moment to realize that the government wasn’t the solution to our problems before the coronavirus either.”

      In other words, it isn’t just that those of us who were supposedly insane for thinking the government wasn’t the solution were always rational, it’s also that those who thought the government was the solution to our problems were always the ones who were delusional.

      How many times have you heard people tell us that libertarian capitalism is unrealistic? And how many times in history have our critics been exposed as delusional by reality? You know what’s unrealistic? The USSR. Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela. And add this to the list: the idea that government policy is the solution that will stop the spread of a virus that government policy can’t stop from spreading.

      I guess the idea that the government can’t solve our problems isn’t just unappealing to people–but also frightening. Maybe people believe in government these days like they used to believe in God.

      1. Maybe people believe in government these days like they used to believe in God.

        I think this hits the nail on the head. Most people need something to believe in, and when they give up God, it often becomes government. I really think this explains the weird reverence these same types have for the public sector.

      2. I don’t really understand what your point is Ken. Just what do you expect people to do if they are concerned about getting a deadly flu other than stay home and do their best to stay away from other people?

        The government isn’t doing much of anything when you think about it. They can pass all the laws they want but those laws won’t mean anything if the public isn’t willing to follow them. People are self isolating because they feel it is prudent. IF they didn’t, the government telling them to do so wouldn’t be enforceable.

        Your ideology and politics so color your thinking your thoughts on this subject are bordering on the bizarre. You really seem to think that isolation and quarantining are not the proper response to a contagious disease outbreak. You think the solution is for everyone to just ignore it and hope they get lucky or something.

        1. I understood something different from his post. I think he’s referring to people insisting that the government do something–anything, consequences be damned–to stop some virus, not voluntary mitigation measures that make sense.

          And while the federal gov’t may not be doing much, here in NYC the local and state gov’ts are certainly very active. It’s not just voluntary. And it would be hard to say that this isn’t harming a lot of peoples’ livelihoods.

          1. And my point is that those government actions would be meaningless if people were not willing to follow them. The government is following the events not leading them. That is why the debate over whether this will go on for months is idiotic. It won’t go on for months because it can’t. People will just ignore the laws in mass and go back to living their lives in a few weeks. These measures are only possible for a couple of weeks. Any government agent who thinks otherwise and that they can extend it longer than that is fooling themselves.

            1. Some of us are still doing what we do.

              My St Patty’s Day party was fun and had more people than expected since we assumed more people would self-quarantine.

              Still going to get items from Publix and Ingles grocery stores.

        2. He’s not saying that at all; he’s saying the choice of action should be up to the individual.

          And before you get started, yes, I understand the opposing argument. But you distorted Ken’s point, which I think is valid.

          1. Ken’s points are getting so strange and contorted, they are not always clear. And beyond that, in a situation where a single individual can infect hundreds of people, you can’t leave it entirely up to the individual. Ken is a typical libertarian who cannot imagine that anyone would act differently than he does.

        3. John,

          I’ve mentioned before that the people of Wuhan started cloistering themselves before the Chinese government even admitted there was a virus. The government started imposing quarantines after Wuhan had already become a virtual ghost town–and a lot of that seemed to be about the government wanting to look like it was doing something. I guess the government doing nothing in the midst of a crisis is unacceptable even in an authoritarian dictatorship.

          The same thing happened more or less everywhere. From South Korea and northern Italy to the United States of America, people don’t need the government to tell them to vacate a burning building, and Americans don’t need the government to tell them to cancel the flights, cancel their cruises, cancel their trip to Disneyland, and avoid large crowds.

          The government was a laggard in that regard.

          I think you’re also missing my distinction between stopping the virus and slowing the spread. Social distancing slows the rate of the spread, but it probably will not stop the virus. Even vaccination may only stop people from being exposed to the virus by way of herd immunity–when the rest of the herd is exposed, they don’t become infected, so they don’t pass it on. But we’re not talking about stopping the infection that way. We’re talking about what happens to the herd when it’s exposed, not “if” it’s exposed.

          The CDC is reporting that there are 4,226 confirmed cases in the U.S., now.

          https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?

          In order for them to stop the coronavirus at this point, they need to isolate all those people and everyone they’ve come into contact with over the last five days. Then they need to do the same with all the asymptomatic people who haven’t been identified yet. In the past, some 75% of the cases of these novel viruses have been infected by way of medical personnel either to other patients in healthcare facilities to the families of medical personnel at home.

          We can slow this down, but I don’t see why we should assume that we’ll be able to stop it–certainly not before there’s a vaccine that’s still months away.

          1. Sure but you if you keep in check such that it doesn’t overwhelm the health system, that is good enough. You don’t have to stop it entirely.

            1. I hope I’m wrong by the way!

              I hope we get some unseasonably warm weather and the virus dries up in April.

              1. And now we all root for Global Warming.

          2. “The CDC is reporting that there are 4,226 confirmed cases in the U.S., now.”

            When I linked this a short time ago, there were 4,226 confirmed cases in the U.S.

            They just updated the same link, and now there are 7,038 confirmed cases.

            It’s out of control, and if they’re only testing people with symptoms and the symptoms often don’t show up for five days, then it’s been out of control for at least five days.

              1. Looks like NY is the largest reason for the rise.

                When/if they figure out how this was transmitted, it came to the USA from returning Americans from China and Asia where they became infected.

                Those people interacted with people and it spread. These infected people still interacted with countless other people in Americans and they never got sick or are not being counted as confirmed sick.

                It still has not spread as quickly or as definitively as the media would have you believe.

        4. Just what do you expect people to do if they are concerned about getting a deadly flu other than stay home and do their best to stay away from other people?

          As a libertarian, I would expect some people to do as they would when people are irrationally panicking over anything else. Tell them to calm down, this is not in fact a particularly deadly flu and if they stay home and stay away from other people they’re not going to have a job for long and without a job they’re going to run out of money and without money the bank is going to foreclose on their house and then what will they do? Huddling in your house and praying for your government to save you is just about as effective as huddling in your church and praying for your god to save you – when you’re a member of the Cult of Cthulhu.

          I realize that this explanation might not satisfy you since you are not libertarian but a Republican who believes that Mankind and his society is perfectible if only the right Top Men were in charge. Those of us whose politics were shaped by Thomas Sowell and his book A Conflict of Visions believe that government is at best a necessary evil and the less you allow them to control the better off you are. There’s a saying: Vinegar in freedom is sweeter than honey in slavery, and you don’t understand how anybody could possibly prefer vinegar to honey.

          1. I would say that we should reject the government’s non-solution solutions.

            There are so many authoritarians and socialists who don’t want to let this mother of health crises go to waste–when letting this crisis go to waste is exactly what libertarian capitalist should encourage our friends and families to do.

            They’ll use this crisis to nationalize healthcare if we let them.

            They’ll use this crisis to justify all sorts of awful policies specifically because there’s nothing they can do to stop the virus–and they want to make it look like they’re doing something in an election year.

            And we should be ready for that.

            We should also do what we can to make it clear to our friends and family that there is nothing the government can do to stop however many people from contracting the virus, so be highly skeptical of any government solution–because there is none.

            They can’t save you. Don’t believe the hype.

    3. It’s a good analogy. Even if (God forbid) the doom boners are correct, sheer force of government is not going to stop the virus. It’s part of nature. Unfortunately, this happens sometimes. OTOH sheer force of government can hamper society’s response by destroying its productivity.

    4. Lars von Trier is the worst filmmaker in the history of filmmakers.
      I hope he gets the plague

      1. Lars von Trier is the worst filmmaker in the history of filmmakers.

        Uwe Boll on line 1 for you…

      2. Nardz, I was willing to forgive you for everything else, but now you’ve gone and revealed yourself as a cinematic simpleton.

        Which of the fast n furious movies was your favorite and why?

        1. Tokyo Drift was the only good one.

        2. I’ve only seen the first and the one they went to Dubai. It was disappointing.

          Lars von Trier is utter trash.
          Dogme 95 is bullshit “philosophy” to cover for lack of ability, to disguise “ugly and untalented” as “ugly as art”.
          Here’s where I’d compare it to the photo exhibit of “small amounts of garbage in the woods” I saw at the High, but those were at least well lit.
          Lars von Trier makes movies because people won’t let him shit on their faces unless he calls it “film”

          1. I thought Melanholia was pretty good, and no one even got their face shat on. I am a sucker for philosophical sci fi, though. Nymphomaniac was … interesting.

            I thoroughly missed the mark calling you a film simpleton, though. You are a thoroughly refined von Trier critic.

    5. That’s our government right now. A vaccine won’t be available for months, but cases are doubling every few days. We can slow the spread down, but the government can’t do anything to stop it from spreading eventually.

      Does everyone get the flu every year? Not last I looked. The reason is that the flu virus including this one doesn’t live as long in warmer conditions. The spread will naturally wear itself out as the temperatures warm up. The entire point of closing things down for a couple of weeks is to slow down the spread long enough to allow that to happen. You then have the summer to develop a vaccine before it returns next fall.

      1. It may well not return at all. SARS of 2002-03 didn’t.

        1. There is that possibility as well. I find the response to all this bizzare on both sides. One side is completely panicked convinced the virus is going to destroy civilization and the other side thinks the virus is not a threat but that the government will use the virus as an excuse to destroy civilization and institute a permanent dystopian police state. Both sides are equally crazy but for opposite reasons.

      2. The vaccine trial that they started in Seattle this week now gets to wait for 1 year to see if the vaccine messes up the human guinea pigs worse than the Kung Flu would have. Then there’s another 6 months after that before it’s put in service for the masses. Maybe that’s were the 18 month figure comes from.

        1. That is how things normally work. But they don’t have to work that way and won’t work that way here. You can make findings before a year. There will be a vaccine that is at least partially effective by the fall.

          1. So let’s inject people with something that might turn out to be much more harmful than the cold they might have gotten from the Kung Flu. All out of the need to DO SOMETHING, no matter how silly

            1. Spoken like a true believer in the FDA. They can see if it is not harmful and partially effective a lot quicker than they can get the gold plated we know how well it works to the 10th decimal place required by the FDA.

              And yes, often imperfect solutions are all that is available. Life is like that sometimes.

            2. “All out of the need to DO SOMETHING, no matter how silly”

              And the silliness can be gauged by the stated goal.

              Because the government needs to stop the virus is a silly goal if the government is incapable of stopping the virus.

              Tell me you want to slow it down as much as possible so hospitals aren’t turning people in desperate need of a ventilator away, and that’s not silly at all.

              1. Your stated goal is not met if the new vaccine causes more health issues than it avoids. Anyway, it’s not going to be on the market in the next few months.

            3. Do you want zombie plague apocalypse?
              Because that’s how you get zombie plague apocalypse!

      3. Does everyone get the flu every year?

        It’s not the flu.

        It’s the common cold.

        And EVERYONE gets an average of 2-4 of them EVERY YEAR.

  23. Is this what the Green New Deal would look like, only permanently?

    1. And worse.

    2. This is not even half of what GND would look like. China’s emissions have only declined by 25% since COVID-19, GND calls for 75%

    3. Great observation. The pain people are feeling now, a drop in the bucket compared to what they propose, should be brought back to mind every time a politician touts the GND.

      This is what massive central planning looks like, people.

      1. What is this? What are you talking about? Would people not try and avoid catching the flu if the government were not there to tell them?

        Lets say the government did nothing. What would you expect to happen? I would expect most of what is happening to occur on its own. People realize this is a threat and decide to stop going out unless they have to do so. Restaurants decide that killing their customers is bad for business and go take out or sit people further away from each other. Churches and sports leagues decide that it isn’t worth it having large gatherings for a few months.

        I think there is a real case that government action is superfluous in this situation because people will take precautions on their own. I mean no one in the government told the NCAA to cancel their basketball tournament. They did that on their own.

        So really, unless you are Ken Shultz and just deny that it is even possible to lower your chances of getting sick, I don’t see what your point is.

        1. Whether what happened here is by choice or diktat, the result is a hefty reduction in economic output, travel, etc. That is precisely what the GND would perpetrate onto society. It’s more about the effect than the cause.

          And don’t think that they wouldn’t just love to dictate that energy intensive events like transporting basketball teams and fans all over the country are also offending mother Gaia and therefore must be stopped.

          So regardless of how we got there this time, this is a glimpse at what society might look like if the eco-nuts get their way… very little economic activity. And it’s proving to be not very fun for most of us.

          1. You are right about that. The GND is a government inflicted pandemic on the economy.

            1. An interesting outcome of this is that it turns out that whole swaths of the economy aren’t actually run by greedy capitalists. Companies are willing to protect their employees, and society at large, without coercion by shuttering their businesses if it’s deemed to be in society’s best interest.

              This is another lesson that people should be reminded of when they talk about the evils of capitalism and corporations.

              1. A whole string of excellent points, Leo.

                1. Be careful. You’ll likely be called one of my sock accounts.

                  1. Too late. I’m called someone’s sock account every. single. time.

                    Don’cha know there’s only one libertarian who criticizes Trump? He’s all of us.

                    1. Only Hihn would say that. I knew it!

              2. It just has the nice benefit of driving all the small independent competitors of those greedy capitalists out of business…
                And it’s nice to see the NBA put values ahead of profits. Except when it comes to China.

              3. “Companies are willing to protect their employees, and society at large, without coercion by shuttering their businesses if it’s deemed to be in society’s best interest.”

                Oh, they’re coerced. Coerced by liability for being perceived as negligently causing people to get infected with a dangerous disease. Nobody wants the opprobrium, or actual legal judgments against them, of being the one guy still open and a bunch of people getting sick anyway.

                The point that the GND would shut down things about three times as much as this bug has, judging by CO2 emissions, is hilarious. Venezuela at least had the excuse they didn’t know they were sliding towards failure and anarchy. What’s AOC and her ilk’s excuse?

            2. government inflicted pandemic on the economy

              This is a phrase that should be used liberally and publicly by lots and lots of people as soon as this whole thing is over. This will resonate.

        2. I can say that until they closed the bars and restaurants here, they were very crowded. So I am not sure the same thing would happen.

          1. Anecdotally around here they were barren over the weekend before getting closed.

            1. And without knowing where either of you live, and what the situation is there (i.e. if it’s a “hot spot” or not), perhaps both cases are correct and rational? That’s the whole point- people get to make their own value judgements, weigh the potential consequences of getting the virus vs. the lost happiness/money/whatever of not going out and doing something vs. the likelihood that that they will actually get it from doing what they are doing, where they are doing it. While most people might not consciously be making that calculation, unconsciously they are. Or abdicating making the decision at all and following the lead of others who are. Hence, what is “the right thing to do” may look very different at a bar in a college town vs. the Dennys down the street from a retirement community with known cases of coronavirus. To me, personally, I could care less if I get the virus or not, so I just do my thing without worry. Plus, the chances of actually getting it don’t look great right now (everything I am seeing indicates that the degree of “contagiousness” is not nearly what we might have thought). Now if there was Ebola floating around, even with the same (small) chances of infection as this coronavirus, my calculus might change a bit.

              1. I live in New York City, which is a bit of a hot spot.

                1. I guess the question would be were they as crowded as normal for NYC?

                2. Yeah, but to be fair, they were full of 17-year-olds.

  24. Ioannidis is the same doctor who published a landmark study 10-15 years ago that most medical research studies are wrong. He is definitely not some crank, but is deeply despised by the establishment for exposing them. No doubt, in this case, he will really get shit from them.

    1. Of course they’ll hate him he’s questioning top men, just by asking pertinent allbeit inconvenient questions, which the best questions usually are inconvenient.

  25. When I was small there were few vaccines for diseases, including measles, mumps, and chickenpox. My parents sent me to spend the night with kids who had one of those I hadn’t had yet, I got sick, then better. Low tech immunity. Acquired.
    Maybe if we keep old people (like me) in self-imposed quarantine and let all the younger people do as they are going to do anyway we can repeat this old process. Herd immunity the hard(er) way.

  26. Is there noone willing to criticize the Dems from having clusters of people(mostly older at risk as well) gather unnecessary for something that is all but inevitable short of Biden catching the Corona.

  27. One fall out, if I’m reading the pulse of Italy correctly, is Italexit.

    The Germans and French refusing to help Italy directly brings into question that when push comes to shove, the EU won’t be there to help a hand.

    Disgraceful behavior. Especially Germany because one of the first people to bring the virus into Italy was German if I remember correctly.

    THIS is how you fracture relationships. Not through a virus.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

    1. to give a helping hand.

    2. Yeah, if I were an Italian and not already convinced of the uselessness of the EU, I would certainly be so convinced now.

      1. All the EU does for Italy is prevent them from devaluing heir currency so that German bond holders don’t get screwed. That is it.

        1. Germany, for the most part, has always played nice with Italy because a) it’s a manufacturing and industrial power part of the G7 b) German banks also owe a lot to Italian investors and government.

          It flows both ways.

          Far different relationship than with Greece or even Spain.

          But this time….they may have really pissed off Italy. And for good reason.

          Over the last five years Germany has been pushing its weight around lecturing and demanding nations and now they turned their backs on a founding member.

          Terrible optics.

          1. Germany has an export driven economy because of a couple of reasons.

            1) Their workers are among the most productive in terms of GDP per capita in the world, so their manufacturing workers are worth it–even though they’re highly paid.

            2) They benefit from the Euro.

            If Germany’s currency were solely priced based on their own inflation rate and spending, the German mark would be among the least competitive from an export standpoint in the world. Germany’s exports benefit mightily for being priced in Euros, and the Euros are made inexpensive for export purposes because France and Italy are as irresponsible fiscally as Germany is responsible.

            On the one hand, Germany pays a price for letting those other countries spend like drunken sailors and depend on Germany’s austerity to keep their currency from going through the floor. On the other hand, German exports are helped mightily by being priced in a currency that’s only competitive on the world market because of France and Italy’s irresponsibility.

            1. So the EU is a big economic circle jerk! Who knew??

              Actually, who didn’t know!

              1. When Merkel was effectively bailing out the Euro, plenty of German voters didn’t really understand why.

                To a certain extent, letting France peg their currency to Germany’s without subjecting their budget to Germany’s scrutiny was the price of France’s support for German reunification.

                But what Merkel did when she did it in the aftermath of Greece, Spain, etc. was for bigger reasons than that.

        2. Everyone knows you want a heavy currency when one of the big draws of our country is tourism.

          We all want our vacations to cost as much as possible. Right?

  28. “The worst-case scenario may be extremely bad—much worse than his numbers suggest—but again, bringing much of human civilization to a halt for multiple months or years is not really a viable solution.”

    Does anyone but me think that much of the world has gone totally bat-shit crazy?

    1. For sure, the response to coronavirus has done far more damage than the virus ever would’ve.

      1. Too soon to say. It ain’t over until it’s over.

        1. “Too soon to say. It ain’t over until it’s over.”

          This. Exponential functions are a bitch to predict in their early stages. I hope this is nothing.

        2. While true, we’ve got enough data to get some ideas of what this will end up looking like, and it sure looks like it’s going to result in fewer fatalities than even a normal flu season. We might end up with more “infected”, but from what we’ve seen a lot of those “infected” will never know they even got sick because they never develop symptoms.

          If we left it unchecked some old and sick people would die sooner than normal, some young people would get sick for a bit, and then it would burn out. There’s no indication this is somehow different than every other virus in this family that we’ve ever encountered.

          The question we have to ask ourselves is how much damage are we willing to do to society in order to keep some old and sick people alive for a little longer? What happens when this thing mutates (like the flu) and we get a different strain of it next year? Quarantine 2: Electric Boogaloo? We can’t shut down for 18 months every year, the math doesn’t work.

          1. Double secret probationary shutdown

    2. you and everyone I’ve talked to.

    3. I do. At least our esteemed Leaders. And the huddled masses. Not sure who else is left.

    4. people I thought were smrt are proving to be monkey-sheep

  29. Trump is handling this thing right by basically making the state’s take steps based on their demos and needs. Feds should just step in when shit hit’s the fan in certain states acting as a backstop. These people clamoring for the feds to react are just trying to get Trump to do something so they can criticize him. But jesus he needs to gut the cdc, how much more incompetent could an agency be?

    1. Plus, depending upon exactly what actions we are talking about, the feds might be more restricted in terms of following the letter of the constitution than states. While I don’t think any of it is acceptable, and I hope (though don’t expect) to see severe legal and political repercussions for any governor or agency that restricted individual movements or ordered businesses closed, I think if the federal government ordered everyone in the nation to lock themselves in their homes (for example), that would get smacked down pretty quickly. For better or for worse, states and local governments have more leeway on those matters.

      1. “Plus, depending upon exactly what actions we are talking about, the feds might be more restricted in terms of following the letter of the constitution than states.”

        Related to that, just what does this National Defense Act that Trump just mentioned, actually do?

  30. So we have a massive, irrational stampede.

    What did the cowboys do?

    1. Finally fired their coach, resigned their wr, and franchised their qb

  31. We do know that social isolation works. The link that Soave gives saying we don’t know says the exact opposite. We know it works, what we don’t know is if it is necessary because better hygine might be all that is needed. From the conclusion of the paper Soave links to

    The following effective interventions should be implemented, preferably in a combined fashion, to reduce transmission of viral respiratory disease:

    frequent handwashing with or without adjunct antiseptics;

    barrier measures such as gloves, gowns and masks with filtration apparatus; and

    suspicion diagnosis with isolation of likely cases.

    Special efforts should be focused on implementing the three above interventions in order to reduce transmission from young children, who are generally the most fecund sources of respiratory viruses.

    Soave either doesn’t understand or didn’t read the paper he linked to.

    1. There are side-effects to social isolation though (besides the economic ones). If children have to stay home from school, they might infect their grandparents (who could be watching them while parents work). Children never being exposed also deprives us of the opportunity to build herd immunity, which could prevent the disease from bouncing right back.

      I’m not saying it necessarily outweighs the benefits, but it seems conceivable that it could.

      1. If the kids are already infected, they are going to infect their grandparents anyway. Sending them to school for 8 hours a day isn’t going to stop them from infecting their household during the 16 hours a day they are not at school.

        So, no I can’t imagine how isolation could cause the disease to spread more.

        1. They could avoid contact with elderly relatives if they are at school and parents are at work.

          1. For the time they are at school but not when they come home.

    1. I said this on the other thread and I’ll say it again here: this virus is already far more widespread than we’re being led to believe, and the true mortality rate is WAY lower than we’re being led to believe. All the evidence so far indicates that healthy children and young adults are completely unaffected by this virus and show no symptoms at all. Many of us will get it and never even know we had it.

      Initially I laughed at those people who said this mass hysteria was planned out in advance by George Soros and the New World Order, but now I’m actually starting to think they may be right.

      1. I mean, just think if our media covered the flu like this every year…

        1. That’s kind of my fear when those of us with a brain in our skull bring up the regular flu fatality statistics to try and get people to put this in perspective- that the takeaway won’t be “gee, maybe we’re overreacting to this” but rather “OMG WE ARE UNDERREACTING TO THE FLU” and we will have hand washing monitoring cameras mandated in all restrooms by next fall.

          Because, you know, every death is preventable. No reason we should lose a 90 year old with asthma and a heart condition in the prime of their lives.

  32. I went on a Coronapocalypse road trip. I expected panic-induced closing of most attractions. I didn’t expect that hiking trails would be closed. The few places that were open appreciated the business.

  33. I see Chuck Schumer excoriating Trump for his utter failure to do anything at all right in this time of panic and demanding Trump get his shit together. If only Chuck Schumer were in any position to do anything, you bet your ass things would be done properly.

    The other day I saw Andy Cuomo doing the same thing, stamping his feet and pounding the table as he demanded Trump do something to expand New York’s ability to respond to the coronavirus threat by building more hospitals and more beds. I would think if things were that bad in New York, Cuomo would just declare an emergency and suspend that part of the state constitution that prohibits the state from owning and operating hospitals and New York could build their own hospitals. The beauty part of this is that if the state were to build and operate their own hospitals, once the coronavirus threat passed the state could continue to operate these “state hospitals” (for lack of a better term) as non-profits to treat the indigent, the uninsured, the welfare cases, the poor, anybody who can’t meet the demands of the for-profit healthcare regime. Why nobody has ever thought of this idea of public hospitals before is beyond me.

    1. We now live in a world where the Democrats are demanding that Trump be more of a dictator. These people are insane.

      1. Did you just figure that out?

    2. I watched most of Cuomo’s speech. He was complaining that different states were doing different things, and the feds should be telling them what to do.

      He then went on to explain how states were coordinating with each other, completely oblivious to the contradiction.

      1. >>completely oblivious

        Cuomo, in italiano.

        1. Cuomo’s smart, not dumb like everyone says.

  34. The Princess Diamond has a capacity of 3770 passengers and crew. That report doesn’t say how many were on board at the time, but assuming it was full, all were tested, only 700 had the disease, and 7 died. That’s an infection rate of 18%, and 1 % mortality rate for the infected, .18% for all.

    Another analysis is at Wats Up With That.

    1. Add in the cruise skewing older and the numbers get even less scary.

      Again my position on this is: individuals should do sensible things to reduce transmission of the disease. Buys the system time to stock up and reduces the overall burden. You also increase the likelihood of transmission dead ends

      States and the Fed shouldn’t be shutting everything down. If you’re contagious for 2 weeks and there’s a 2-3 day incubation period the minimum complete societal shutdown time is Five weeks. I don’t think we can purpose that as a smart solution.

      1. The panicy scary projections for this are no worse than the panicy scary projections for Ebola, SARS, MERS, and no doubt a zillion others I have forgotten for the nothing burgers they were. There is zero need for any worse government reaction. They are going to start a recession for no good reason.

        I am convinced the media has blown this up because their last best shot at blowing up AGW was Greta, and she’s yesterday’s fishwrap.

        My biggest worry is that these damned fools have set themselves up for too scary to fail: no matter what happens, they will claim credit for stopping Coronavirus, and set the stage for bigger better government, UBI< and all that trash.

        1. My biggest worry is that these damned fools have set themselves up for too scary to fail: no matter what happens, they will claim credit for stopping Coronavirus, and set the stage for bigger better government, UBI< and all that trash.

          That is exactly what is going to happen. It is going to fizzle and Trump will take credit for stopping it. Everything these idiots do to stop Trump blows up in their faces.

          1. Fuck Trump. This is about growing State power, whether Trump or Obama or Biden or Bernie.

            You Trumpistas routinely complain that every Reason article drags Trump into things. Pot, meet kettle.

            1. There is nothing new about the quarantine power you fucking retard. If you are so concerned about the expansion of state power, try learning what it is and is not.

              And thanks for once again confirming that anyone who uses the word “Trumpista” in any way but ironically is a fucking compete ignorant retard whose thoughts should be ignored. We already knew that but your reminding us can’t hurt.

              1. I said nothing about Trump; you dragged him in.

                I said nothing about quarantine; you made that up.

                Who the heck are you replying to?

  35. The only people who need to isolate are people who have a pre existing condition or are over 70.

    The number of deaths resulting from a wrecked world economy will be much higher.

  36. Donald Trump has officially won the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

    The delegate totals were so close, I was expecting a brokered convention.

    1. It’s called a pimped convention.

  37. “The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but …”
    … there are still 233 active cases, 15 categorized as serious, so final Diamond Princess stats aren’t available yet

  38. Is anybody anywhere doing any attempt at a cost benefit analysis? Everybody is shitting their pants and saying we need to make X changes, but few are saying that those changes are costly and might not be worth it.

    1. “Is anybody anywhere doing any attempt at a cost benefit analysis?”

      Not that I’ve seen.
      The chicken littles are all operating under the ‘if it can save just one life!’ rule, and the economic losses are irrelevant.

      1. We’re still in the “1 death is a tragedy” part of Stalin’s quote

  39. We are closing an era and entering a new cycle of destruction, now the question that many of us ask ourselves is, who is really being affected by this disease? Also, I know that many of those who are suffering throughout this are the ones with the most money. This reminds me of all the movies I could see on 123 Movies where many poor people die but also many rich people die. http://centrevillelibrary.org/spiderman-lejos-de-casa-fue-un-verdadero-exito-del-ano-2019/
    Here I leave another very interesting article

  40. Reason violating fb’s community standards was a mistake?

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  42. “The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.”

    More compelling to me than the low death rate among that disproportionately elderly population is that in that small, enclosed, densely packed petri dish, only 17 percent of the population even contracted the virus at all.

    1. Good point. What surprises me about Diamond Princess is how many of those 17% are still sick. That story feels like months ago

      1. It sure seems like there is something about this that makes some people susceptible either to getting it to begin with and/or to having potentially serious complications and a hard time shaking it. The fact that young people (down to infants) seem to suffer few to no effects is of course unusual, as is the fact that it is starting to seem like a lot (if not the majority) of people have somewhat of a hard time contracting it while a few have apparently gotten it after only the most minimal contact with infected people.

    2. Me too. I am increasingly convinced this thing is going to fade pretty quickly.

  43. http://pjmedia.com/trending/first-no-collusion-now-no-actual-russians-in-muellers-disastrous-russian-collusion-illusion/

    Remember all of the indictments Mueller and his band of hoodlums brought against the dreaded Russkie bot farms? Well, the only one that was ever brought to court has now been dismissed by the government for complete lack of evidence.

    I seem to recall putting out the Mueller talking points on this as gospel truth. Will they be putting out a retraction now?

    1. No John, they will never, ever, ever retract a god-damned thing. And that fact alone makes them loathsome. The things these prosecutors did went way beyond the pale.

    2. That class action indictment was such an obvious pr stunt. When that thing was announced I heard a chorus of angels yodeling “Bullshit”.

    3. The response I’m seeing is just claims that the DOJ is dropping the case because Orange Man Bad told them to (using the coronavirus epidemic as cover).

      They are ignoring the lack of evidence. It’s icky and makes Queen Hillary cry.

  44. China says Japan-developed drug Avigan works against coronavirus:

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-says-Japan-developed-drug-Avigan-works-against-coronavirus

    “Another clinical trial in Wuhan revealed that patients treated with favipiravir recovered from fever in 2.5 days on average, versus 4.2 days for other patients. Coughing symptoms also improved within 4.6 days — about 1.4 days earlier than those who did not take the drug. . . . Only 8.2% of the patients taking favipiravir needed respiratory aids, whereas 17.1% of the patients in the control group were put on devices.”

    1. There’s the practical answer for bending the curve … find existing drugs that lesson the duration or severity of the illness.

      1. Yeah, but then the Imperial College wouldn’t be able to recommend a year-and-a-half economic lockdown until a perfect cure is widely available.

  45. Some time back I started a short thread about Reason and adblock. Synopsis: I want to give reason the extra couple of bucks from ads, but the website is nigh unusable on my little web-book with ads. Comments are a pain even with the ads disabled, as various things redraw and move comments up and down.

    Here’s the update: My daughter got a low end laptop for christmas. It turned out to be a pig, with Reason being exceptionally bad. But it was streaming video that caused me to try something else. So I installed Ubuntu.

    Everything is better. Reason works like a champ. No lengthy redraw process after posting a comment that makes the site unusable. Fast and responsive.

    I tried it out on a thumb drive first, which is relatively simple. For web browsing and watching videos, it is orders of magnitude better. No freezing. No slow redraws.

    If you are having issues like these, I’d give it a try.

    1. A less intensive change would be to simply use an alternative browser (I’m using Pale Moon) with NoScript or uBlock installed. Those extensions allow selective blocking of unwanted content by origin. They’re not necessarily for the technically challenged (neither is Ubuntu, though it’s gentler than other Linux distros), and there’s a fair bit of effort to get some of the ridiculously commercialized sites working.

      Finally, if you have Windows-only software that you absolutely need for work or school, you won’t be able to run that on a Linux distro. There are workarounds for that, but they are inconsistent and unreliable (yes, even more so than Windows itself).

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  49. Have I missed a reason why the Korean data isn’t mentioned here? They have tested 300,000+ people and up to 25,000 more every day and showing a much higher rate of infection among asymptomatic people in their 20s than the national data from other countries mentioned in this article.

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