COVID-19 Mortality Rate 'Ten Times Worse' Than Seasonal Flu, Says Dr. Anthony Fauci

Initial hopes that the public health consequences of the new coronavirus would be mild are fading.

The World Health Organization has now declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. The global health agency defines pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease. The spread of COVID-19, caused by the new coronavirus, qualifies since it has now been detected in 114 countries, infecting nearly 120,000 people and killing about 4,300 of them. The number of diagnosed cases in the U.S. has swelled to more than 1,000.

So how bad will it get? Two days ago, President Donald Trump compared the current number of deaths from COVID-19 to those stemming from the seasonal flu outbreak. As more data come in, initial hopes that the public health consequences of the spreading coronavirus pandemic would be comparatively mild and similar to the death rates associated with seasonal influenza are fading.

The delay in rolling out a more comprehensive testing regime means that undiagnosed cases are rising. Estimates vary from a few thousand to as many as 50,000 infections among Americans.

At a congressional hearing this afternoon, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, suggested that COVID-19 is is considerably more dangerous than run-of-the-mill flu. He observed, "The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That's the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that between 20,000 to 52,000 Americans have succumbed to influenza this season. If Fauci's assessment is correct, that implies that an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would end up killing between 200,000 and 520,000 Americans. Consider for comparison that just over 2.8 million Americans died in 2018.

Comments

[Metazoan]

A couple of serious questions:

1) If the virus is so contagious, why so few cases in the US? We're doing basically nothing to mitigate it.

2) If #1 is wrong because it is actually spreading everywhere in the US, then isn't it a lot less disruptive than we think?

3) What's the current thought on warm weather and SARS-CoV-2 transmission? That should be coming to the US soon.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

1. The US has done almost no testing compared to other countries. I still have hope that the virus will have a relatively low CFR once you take into account the large number of people who have mild to no symptoms which best estimates show to be about 88%.

2. Still too early to tell. A tangent to this suggest that we'll be studying Italy's experience for some years to come once this has blown over.

3. Don't know.

[Metazoan]

Re: 1&2, I think it makes sense for the verdict to be "still too early to tell," which means that we should all take precautions (but not panic). However, I just find it unusual to simultaneously say that the observed CFR is high--and then starting panicking over it--and also say that the number of cases is dramatically undercounted, which would imply a lower CFR.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Based on the best science I've been able to glean so far is that from an epidemiological standpoint, we're still in the very early period for this virus. There is no vaccine and according to the data, there is zero community immunity to it. Which means that it's just that, too early to tell-- that as this continues to advance, if it really rips through the population we might discover the CFR is even higher than we know-- however I have my doubts because of South Korea's experience.

Italy's experience is more your worst-case scenario with hospitals being overwhelmed, ICU's unable to take patients, hospitals now tiraging people and deciding who dies and who lives etc, sick and infected healthcare workers being ordered to work because they're critically low on personnel etc.

[Overt]

Italy's average age is like 45 years old- with regions as high as 49. The lesson I suspect we will learn is that if you are a country full of 50+ year olds, expect to be hard hit by viruses that are sufficiently serious for old people.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Right, and as suggested, Italy suffers from the "regular flu season", every year, so that suggests this one is particularly nasty.

[JesseAz]

Average age of death rated to Covid is 81 in Italy. It isnt a case study.

[NoVaNick]

Yeah-Italy‘a population is older on average and also lives in much more dense cities and towns than the US. Yet no one mentions this because density is a good think according to the central planners

[JFree]

To follow up on that testing rate - as of a couple days ago - the US has tested about 26/million people. Italy has tested about 1000/million people. Korea and China have tested about 4000/million.

IOW what the true rate of disease is. We have no knowledge of that since all we have tested is the cyst on the butt of a flea sitting on the tip of the iceberg.

I still have hope that the virus will have a relatively low CFR once you take into account the large number of people who have mild to no symptoms which best estimates show to be about 88%.

I hope so too. Problem is that once the hospitals hit capacity, that remaining 12% has a possible chance of becoming the fatality rate. And there is actually no data about whether that % really varies much by age. Of those who have serious, yes heroic/hospitalization does work better with the younger and worse with the older so the hospitalized/treated fatality is highly correlated with age/comorbidity.

[JFree]

As an aside - if the experts want to get Trump's narcissism and ego out of its obstructionism and turn it a bit productive, the best way to do that might be to spin 'tests per million' as the proof of which country is the best in the world and which leader has the biggest hands.

[Gray_Jay]

"Problem is that once the hospitals hit capacity, that remaining 12% has a possible chance of becoming the fatality rate. And there is actually no data about whether that % really varies much by age. Of those who have serious, yes heroic/hospitalization does work better with the younger and worse with the older so the hospitalized/treated fatality is highly correlated with age/comorbidity."

Thank you. That's all I've been trying to say for the past month in the face of, "It's not even as bad as the flu, bro!", and "Even if it is, it only kills old people."

We just don't know here yet. I suspect we'll find out over the next four weeks or so.

As for China, I've said it before: they're going back to work and damn the torpedoes. They'll scan workers going into factories for fever, yank out the positives/high temperature cases, and send em to Wuhan. They'll get well or they won't. Not like China cares one way or the other, provided the workers keep coming.

It will go differently here. I am considering having my elderly parents stay in for the next month or two---with a lot of decontamination of supplies---until this disease dissipates from the human population near them.

[JFree]

We just don’t know here yet.

CO is reporting confirmed by age. First 2 a week ago and 34 now. I assume those 34 are 'serious' but maybe not - with 10x more presumably in the 'mild' or pre-sick stage. A large cluster of older Australians who got hit/tested skiing in Aspen (skiing presumably meaning healthy) but that means a large cluster of other infected leaving Aspen and returning to presumably higher-than-average income places.

Demographics are:
teens or less: 2
20's: 1
30's: 4
40's: 5
50's: 8
60's: 6 (most of the Australians)
70's: 7
80's: 1

It definitely does look lower serious % on the kids and 20 somethings. But this looks like its hitting prime working age. Or maybe that's just because they are most likely to have insurance. At any rate you're right that we'll see over the next four weeks or so.

[JFree]

3) What’s the current thought on warm weather and SARS-CoV-2 transmission? That should be coming to the US soon.

I've seen two bits of info. One is that the maximum rate of transmission occurs at about 9C or 50F. Presumably then it will start slowing down as the temps move away from that daily average temp

the other however is that it survives for up to three days on a variety of surfaces at up to human body temperature (98.5F).

I didn't really understand the details but it seems to me that it will likely change transmission mode. Overall would drop but still be very transmissible via the hands to eyes/nose/mouth route. And air conditioned buildings over the summer will likely mean that it doesn't drop as much as people might think or want.

[Gray_Jay]

Singapore seems to be doing really well. I've not heard of large outbreaks in tropical countries or summer countries yet.

Some questions I have are: what are the lasting effects from this, can you get it again after infection and being cured, does an infection alter your susceptibility for either another infection by this bug, or by something else?

[JFree]

I'm not sure we'll know the answers to those questions until next winter. If this is a bug where antibodies confer no immunity, I'd think we're totally screwed.

[De Oppresso Liber]

That's what I've been saying. This could be a permanent adjustment to human productivity. That outcome is within the realm of possibility at this point.

[R Mac]

So most likely, that is not what you’ve been saying.

[De Oppresso Liber]

De Oppresso Liber
March.9.2020 at 5:47 pm
This is anything but overblown. This is starting to look very likely to never leave humanity, barring vaccination efforts and results similar to Polio.

This could very well result in a long term or permanent adjustment to human productivity and life expectancy.

Just because it doesn’t kill you, doesn’t mean it’s insignificant. If a good chunk of the world stays home from work for several weeks, that’s a real adjustment to global GDP. And what if this happens again every cold/flu/corona season? Markets are always correct. The sell off is not a democrat hoax; it’s the aggregation of millions of people seeing the news and making their best predictions.
https://reason-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/reason.com/podcast/coronavirus-shock-just-another-panic-monday/?amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#comment-8159980

[De Oppresso Liber]

Look ahead without bias. Calling this latest bear move didn't require any special talent. Just eyes wide open.

And give credit where it is due, just to be decent.

[R Mac]

Stop being so pedantic.

I was just commenting on your honesty in general, not actually paying any attention to what you said.

[ThomasD]

Don't argue with a 'finance guy' when he's sharing his 'expertise' in immunology.

[De Oppresso Liber]

Sorry I keep making the right calls while you guys complain about how unfair this all is for poor trump.

[De Oppresso Liber]

Stop lying dude.

[Victor Whisky]

A lot of these are from bio warfare programs. To create a cure, they usually reverse engineer what they created to figure how to neutralize it. SARs was one of these government bio warfare programs. LSD was created by the government as a form of truth serum to be used by the CIA. Ever wonder how it went from a top secret government invention, to be sold on the underground market as a drug to get high on? The mob and the CIA are connected at the hip. The guys on top are lunatics who care little about regular citizens.

[Brandybuck]

1) Because it landed here much later. Because it has a very long dormant phase. Regardless, there are over fourteen cases in my county yesterday.

2) As I said, it has a very long dormant phase. People can be spreading it without showing any symptoms. If it gets out of hand it WILL be disruptive!

3) There will be an effect, but how significant is impossible to know. This is NOT influenza and does not behave like it. Summer means more people outdoors getting sun, which is good, but also more people traveling about, which is bad.

[$parcasmic, a love connection]

God damn Bailey, grow a pair and stop telling us what some fucking guy thinks like it's inviolate.

[Square = Circle]

it has now been detected in 114 countries infecting nearly 120,000 people and killing about 4,300 of them.

"The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that."

Okay. Now I'm not really a math guy, but my calculator says 4,300 out of 120,000 is 0.35%.

Now, again, I'm not a math guy, but 0.35% is not 10 times 0.1%, right?

[JesseAz]

Most Journalists are not math guys. Or else you'd have 1 million dollars if bloomberg simply didn't run a campaign.

[Unicorn Abattoir]

He didn't run much of a campaign. Can I get half?

[Dyzalot]

You are right, you aren't a math guy. 4,300 is 3.5% of 120,000

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

He's right, SQ=O

That's a 3.5% overall CFR.

Just quick in the head calc, 1000 is 1% of 100,000. So 4300 is way more than 1% of 120,000.

[Earth Skeptic]

I think his name gives his math skills away.

[Square = Circle]

You are right, you aren’t a math guy. 4,300 is 3.5% of 120,000

Ah. Did you know that decimal points were invented by Arabs to mislead right-thinking people?

[R Mac]

Ha! That was great.

[MasterThief]

As already stated, that math is wrong. Internationally it looks around 35x the mortality rate. Last stats I saw in the US would put it at about 50x as bad.
It is legitimately worth being concerned about. I'm just not convinced it is worth panicking or significantly changing behavior unless you are elderly or some other factors change

[Brandybuck]

120,000 people detected to have COVID-19. The actual number is higher because there are those who recently contracted it and are not showing symptoms.

[Teddy Pump]

Well, then if the actual number who have it is higher, then the CFR they are stating in actually lower, right?

Heck, I'm sure there have been people who have this & thought they had the a regular cold or flu & it just went away after a week!

This is another fake epidemic & fear-mongering crisis event....This guy, Jon Rappoport has been spot on for years about crap like this:

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-why-its-not-like-the-other-fake-epidemics/

[Tionico]

your calculator came up with the same number by brain did as I read your figures.

That number, about one third of one percent, is very close to the TOTAL mortality rate in WUhan China.. a population that is aged, poor health, heavy smokers, rotten diet, midaeval sanitation, amongst the most vitamin D deficient people groups on the planet..... AND with endemic Tuberculosis being VERY common, this group of traits being VERY similar to those in Italy getting this disease. And the rates of infection, symtpoms, and death in Italy have been very close to those in Wuhan.

Mainstream America are VERY unlike those stats.

Now what WILL be interesting to observe is what happens WHEN the West Coast Homeless begin to get and spread this disease. Their stats are also very similar to Wuhan and Italy.
For regular Americans I do not believe this will be an issue at all... probably nowhere near as common or severe as the annual flu.

As to immunity, it IS present in huge numbers. Cruise ship, four hundred tested positive, ONLY THREE had any symptoms. ALL the others never presented with any symptoms. HOW can this be? Simple.. 397 out of the 400 had a strong enough immune system their bodies immediately recognised the attack, and built the appropriate antibodies to quickly defeat it, before pathogen numbers rose to sifficient levels to result in symptoms.. Bear in mind, most folks doing ocean cruises are NOT the young and fit,..... they are middle aged and older, and often in relatively poor medical condition.

[SykesFive]

Your brain told you that 4 thousand is about one third of one percent of 120 thousand? In other words, your brain thinks 4 is less than one percent of 120?

[Juice]

The SARS fatality rate was like 9-10%. This one is like 2-3%. The problem with this one is that it spreads more quickly.

[Gaear Grimsrud]

In 2009 59 million Americans were infected with Swine flu and 12,000 died. We're nowhere near the infection rate or fatalities from this one and flu season is winding down.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

I don't know what the R0 is for Swine flu. Regular flu has an R0 of about 1.3. Thus far, CV19 shows an R0 of between 2 and 3. When talking spread, that's a dramatic difference, especially when tenths of a point can seriously change the rate of infection.

[Gray_Jay]

I had thought the latest data---there doesn't seem to be much good data yet---had the R0 at around 4? Cruise ships and super-spreaders excepted.

[JFree]

I've seen mid-to-high 2's as well. The infection pattern in both Korea and China might even make it a bit lower. Both places seem to have effectively contained the outbreak to either a geographic area or a social group. I'd think that would be near impossible to do with an RO of over 3

[JesseAz]

So 4300 deaths... Flu is already past 20000. PANIC. EVERYBODY PANIC.

[JesseAz]

And even then, 200k people globally, if literally 10 times worse.... 50+ million people die in a given year. Again. I repeat..... EVERYBODY PANIC.

[De Oppresso Liber]

It just got here. We're not close to the peak yet. It is not contained whatsoever. It is more contagious and more deadly than the flu.

I know you'd like to dismiss it since it is bad for the stock market, and the stock market is the president's report card, and you love you the president. So I understand your viewpoint, but it's wrong.

And Trump's gonna win reelection anyway. So chill out and try not to get the new bug.

[$parcasmic, a love connection]

Fuck off Vince

[R Mac]

But the real question is, did Trump say the virus was a hoax, Lying Jeffy?

[Throw MAGA from the Train]

"And Trump’s gonna win reelection anyway. So chill out and try not to get the new bug."

Please don't make me throw up. I think you're wrong by the way. We'll see though.

[JesseAz]

You've become really pathetic this last week.

[De Oppresso Liber]

Stay safe.

[redfish]

"It is more contagious and more deadly than the flu."

We actually don't know that. We do know that the reported fatality rates are inflated, because they reflect rates among diagnosed cases, which tend to be in high-risk groups. If we tested the entire population, it would go down.

Its also apparent that the fatality rates are also higher for certain groups, simply because those groups are more likely to have health problems, and the deaths are a result of the virus compounding their health problems. Its not random.

Of course, the big difference with the flu is there's a flu vaccine.

[R Mac]

Don’t mind Jeff. He lies a lot. It’s best to ignore him.

[wearingit]

Don't worry about morons who think their scientific expertise and shooting from the hip is better than the actual scientists and docs.

No wonder they like Trump. They talk like they know it all and refuse actual expertise. We see how well that's going. I bet they'll blame the stockmarket on Obama now, right on cue.

[redfish]

A lot of actual scientists and doctors are talking about how there is overreaction and mortality rates will go down, and many have said that on the big picture Trump is correct.

The people promoting panic are not actual scientists and doctors, but People Who Speak For Actual Scientists and Doctors.

[Ron]

I saw one report that said the death rate for standard flue was 1 in 1000 while covid 19 was 3 in 1000 making it a 300% greater chance of dying. True number since 3 is 300% greater than 1 but not a real world interaction of 1 thousanth vs 3 thousanth.

who wants to play numbers games. I'm not saying Dr. Fauci is wrong but I question everything.

[Á àß äẞç ãþÇđ âÞ¢Đæ ǎB€Ðëf ảhf]

3 is 200% greater than 1.

Start with 1 is 0% greater than 1, and work your way up.

[Ron]

No 2 is 100% greater but 2 x 1 is 200% as 3 x 1 is 300% because you can’t divide by the zero you think 1 is

[American Mongrel]

3 is 300% of 1, but only 200% greater. 1 is both 66.6% of 3 and less than 3.

[American Mongrel]

Super brain fart... 33.3 of and 66.6 less than...

[Geraje Guzba]

//If Fauci's assessment is correct, that implies that an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would end up killing between 200,000 and 520,000 Americans.//

That's a big fucking if. Without knowing how many people are actually infected, we have no business talking about mortality rates.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

That's why testing is important, so we know what the real mortality rate is.

[Metazoan]

It is critical to test, I agree. But I think GG's point was that panicking without knowing (as opposed to just taking precautions to try to cover downside risk) is not appropriate.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

I'm holding off on making any grand pronouncements on what the right policy is. The problem we have here is we're still in the very early stages. Do you wave it off as being no big deal and find yourself in Italy's situation, or do you take proactive measures, then as you learn more you ratchet them down to match the real threat?

Any proactive measure for the spread of a pandemic is always going to be a tough pill to swallow. If you're wrong, you look like a panicky fool. But if you do nothing and you end up in a really nasty situation, no one will be kind to you.

Personally, I'm trying to weigh the consequences that are currently being taken with the idea that it might hurt, but I'm trying to look at the bigger picture: It likely wouldn't make ME sick or... dead if I got it, but if I take precautions then I won't be a vector to infect other people. I guess I do feel some responsibility to protect the skilled nursing facility full of old people.

[Geraje Guzba]

Now, why can't Reason take this approach? Take it as you go, do what can be done, and await further information. Why does every bit of information or new development require a pairing with some frantic conclusion? And do those conclusions always end up paired further with some sort of confabulated political lesson? It's maddening. The irrationality is spreading faster than any virus.

[JFree]

Because this virus -like all epidemics - moves exponentially not linearly. The only decisions that work are the ones that are made way ahead of when you actually need them with what appear to be overkill at the time.

[ThomasD]

That sure explains their freakout back in '09 over Swine flu.

Oh, wait...

[TrickyVic (old school)]

In my lifetime I've been through 1 or 2 Swine flu scares, 1 or 2 bird flu scares, Zika scare, H1N1 scare, SARs scare. And none of them turned out to be as bad as government and the experts said it would. Coupled with the fact that government rarely ever gets any estimate right, I'm skeptical.

[Geraje Guzba]

//The only decisions that work are the ones that are made way ahead of when you actually need them with what appear to be overkill at the time.//

I was talking about the media's incessant "let's draw the dots from this vague piece of information straight to the evil in Trump's wicked heart and how doomsday is upon us" approach to covering the virus.

People have lost their fucking minds.

[Geraje Guzba]

That is correct. But who are we expected to test? Those that are seriously ill and require urgent medical care? Or anyone that complains of a sore throat and cough? How do we account for that are infected but never present for treatment?

My visits to the doctor for flu/cold-like symptoms has never included any testing for specific pathogens, as far as I'm aware. It's usually a five minute chat, a prescription for something my PCP thinks will work based entirely on a physical examination, some nasal spray, and a warning that "if it doesn't clear up in two weeks, schedule a follow up."

This is why I'm skeptical about the claim that a frenetic shift toward more testing is worth the hassle, or that it will give us any information that would help in stemming the spread of the disease.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

I haven't weighed in on your comments because I'm not an epidemiologist and I see your point in an, on the one hand, on the other hand, kind of way.

I don't know how the testing would work. Korea is testing more people per day than the US has tested total. Their CFR is about .3%. So I think a good question would be, how are the South Koreans defining it? Are people literally going to the drive up window with or without symptoms and getting tested?

I don't know. I do believe that if you could wave a magic wand and you found out that 400,000 people in the US have or have had CV19 and the CFR is .00002%, then I agree, we can all shut the fuck up and stop panicking. I just don't know how to do that.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Shit, wrong, I meant Korea's death rate is .7%. Standard flu has a death rate of .2% (Not sure why Ron keeps saying .1% because that's not what I've read) so that means SK has a death rate of over 3x normal flu.

[JFree]

The flu has a fatality rate that also varies by age and by season. 0.1% is closer to the normal. 0.2% is closer to the bad season or elderly/kids

[De Oppresso Liber]

But Trump "likes the numbers where they are." So testing is not a priority for him. Classifying discussions about the illness and pumping the stock market are very clearly his priorities.

[R Mac]

Does he think it’s a hoax? Because I’ve heard it’s just a hoax.

[JesseAz]

I know. Some ignorant dumbass was claiming trump said it was a hoax earlier. He then called everyone pedantic for calling him out on it. What a dumbass.

[De Oppresso Liber]

And here you are, still being pedantic.

[R Mac]

And here you are, still using bullshit to excuse a lie.

[redfish]

Thank god for pedantic people. They might be annoying and inconvenient sometimes, but without them, people would be 10x more likely to be able to spread their BS with an R0 of 3.5. We need pedantic people to contain pandemics of BS.

[R Mac]

Pandemic of BS was DOL’s nickname in high school.

[De Oppresso Liber]

Go back and read the thread. Trump did one of his unspecified pronouns and it caused some disagreement about his true meaning. I ceded the point immediately, since it wasn't germane to the argument anyway. Here's the quote "One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax."

Is the hoax the virus or is it the Democrat statements about the virus? I'm willing to extend the benefit of the doubt to djt, and I said so.

https://reason-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/reason.com/2020/03/10/expect-very-dramatic-economic-intervention-due-to-coronavirus-says-trump/?amp&amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#comment-8160796

[TrickyVic (old school)]

"" I ceded the point immediately""

Bull fucking shit.

[R Mac]

Hey look everyone, Jeff almost admitted he lied, but couldn’t quite do it.

Because in the end, he likes to lie. It’s like his drug.

[De Oppresso Liber]

R mac, I'm not going to give you anymore attention if you keep behaving so childishly.

[Inigo Montoya]

“Trump ‘likes the numbers where they are,’ so testing is not a priority for him.”

Why should anyone give a crap about what Trump (or Obama, Bush or Clinton) thinks about a virus? Presidents are not epidemiologists, or virologists, or even family doctors.

That’s what I don’t understand about people who worship the state, be they on the left or right: this penchant to look to the president to see what they should think. You’re really going to look at people who can’t even grasp a subject like basic economics for guidance on science? Regardless of what you think of Trump, do your own research and look out for your own wellbeing—especially when it comes to your health.

[R Mac]

See, when Jeff says he’s not a leftist, he’s lying. His comments over the last several days make it clear it’s the President’s job to save us all from viruses.

Which he can’t do, because Trump thinks the virus is a hoax.

[DEdwards]

Why the hell would it be unmitigated? It’s already being mitigated. No one’s doing nothing and no one’s failing to mitigate. Except Iran, maybe.

[emmanuel]

So... ten times .1% equals ..... ready?

ONE percent! Oh my! will no-one survive?

[Ronald Bailey]

e: By some estimates, the disease may infect around 60 percent of the U.S. population. If the case-fatality rate is 1 percent that implies that around 2 million Americans would die of the disease. This would be on top of the 2.8 million who die annually from all causes.

[De Oppresso Liber]

Which is a pretty fucking big deal, to spell it out for the morons in the back. Stocks are still overpriced if any of these predictions bear out.

[R Mac]

This post brought to you by the letter “L”. L is for liar. Which is what DOL is!!!

[De Oppresso Liber]

Watch the open tomorrow. Gap down. I'm not lying.

[R Mac]

I’m sure if someone asks you what day it is tomorrow you won’t lie. That doesn’t mean you won’t lie several other times throughout the day.

[De Oppresso Liber]

I guess I need to appeal to your deep seated insecurities more to get the trump lying pass?

[JesseAz]

This isnt an independent overlap. Many of those who die from covid would be those who died from fly or pneumonia. It is largely a replacement.

[Geraje Guzba]

Multiple contributing factors to the mortality rate? You're going to short-circuit the system.

[Gray_Jay]

"By some estimates, the disease may infect around 60 percent of the U.S. population."

Ron, (if I can call you, Ron), that sounds awfully high. Wasn't the '18 Flu thought to have only infected 25-30 percent of the population? Your figure sounds more typical of HPV or Chicken Pox.

[The Glibertine Party]

G'day, fellow Glibertarian! I see you're being an especially callous shithead this morning. very on brand.

[The Glibertine Party]

oops, meant to post this somewhere else

[Brandybuck]

One percent means six of my coworkers will die. It means two people in my condominium complex will die. One out of a hundred is a LARGE number when it comes to a disease. We mandate vaccines for far less deadly diseases.

And it's more severe for your elderly. You could be looking at only a one in four chance for your mother to die. You think that's something to laugh at?

[IceTrey]

So the mortality rate is 1%. The average age of that 1% is 81. Should we be ruining the economy of that?

[Geraje Guzba]

We should at least be blaming Trump for everything. But, just until November.

[Juice]

It's really more like 2-3%

[Overt]

Right, do you know what else is really fucking deadly? Being old. The mortality rate of people who caught "80 years old" is 10% annually. So yeah, this illness for those people is very, very deadly. But then again, so are a lot of things since 1 in ten 80 year olds succumbs to something each year.

[De Oppresso Liber]

The average age of most deaths, which have been Chinese, has been 81. Wait till you see what happens to the average obese diabetic American. All of those complications correlate with increased risk of death, just as age does.

We're not going to do better than the Chinese or Italians when it comes to death rate, unfortunately.

I recommend the latest Rogan episode. Very candid 2 hour talk with an epidemiologist so experienced and credentialed, well I'll just copy paste it:

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

[Sevo]

"The average age of most deaths, which have been Chinese, has been 81. Wait till you see what happens to the average obese diabetic American."

Yeah, eating a lot is just like being 81!

[R Mac]

He doesn’t always lie. Sometimes he’s just stupid.

[De Oppresso Liber]

You are really taken with me. Slow down baby.

[The Glibertine Party]

G’day, fellow Glibertarian! I see you’re being an especially callous shithead this morning. very on brand.

[Inigo Montoya]

I don’t understand how anyone can be confident about a mortality rate, when the number of cases is unknown. Is the “10x the kill rate of flu” based on the current 120,000 confirmed cases worldwide or based on a guesstimate about the many many more people likely infected but not yet diagnosed?

Also, does anyone know the mortality rate by age group? I’m hearing that children are likely to show zero symptoms, while the elderly face almost certain death. So
what is the mortality rate by age group so far?

[Geraje Guzba]

They can't be confident, and they aren't. Reason hopes that people won't ask the simple questions about some very basic math problems inherent in the entire panoply of ever evolving apocalyptic predictions but will readily blame Trump for downplaying something they are intent on blowing entirely out of proportion.

[jcw]

if only there was something that would help ameliorate the math problems. Maybe if we could work towards getting a more accurate numerator. BUT HOW THE HELL WOULD WE DO THAT? no idea.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Children are almost completely unaffected. Older adults with comorbidities are hardest hit.

The issue here is that it's a bit like the Spanish Flu-- I'm not making that comparison to alarm people, but it's like Spanish Flu in that it's a "novel" virus, (hence the name) and therefore there's no background immunity to it. To this day, medical science doesn't know why the Spanish Flu was so deadly, and it's a myth that something like it simply "can't happen again...because modern technology".

So
what is the mortality rate by age group so far?

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but as you indicated, pretty much zero for young people, fairly low to reasonable for adults, alarmingly high for the older and infirm.

[jph12]

"Children are almost completely unaffected."

I always knew Jeremiah was a warning of what was to come. That's why they had to get rid of Luke Perry first.

[Ronald Bailey]

IM: You are right that it's early days yet with respect to calculating what the actual case-fatality rate for COVID-19 will be. We would have a much better idea if government screw-ups hadn't delayed the roll out of a wider testing regime. In any case, South Korea has a much better testing regime and they report an overall case-fatality rate of around 0.8% which is pretty close to 1 percent. Let's hope that further testing finds that these initial calculations are way too high.

[Nardz]

When should "we" have begun testing, Ron?
Gonna need a date here

[Brandybuck]

We should have started testing the moment we knew there was a potential pandemic in the works.

[Colossal Douchebag]

Inigo: COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE

[Inigo Montoya]

This is really helpful info. Thanks!

[ThomasD]

The number one comorbidity is cardiovascular disease. This is wholly unsurprising because treating shock in the presence of CVD is especially difficult.

The number two comorbidity is diabetes, which tends to have tremendous overlap with comorbidity #1, especially with advancing age. but it is also strong indication that it's not the virus doing the actual killing, but secondary bacterial inffections.

All meaning that the quality of care - both in terms of supportive measures (fluids, pressor support) and antibiotics can strongly impact actual mortality rates.

tl/dr: Looking at data from other countries may be apples to oranges comparisons.

[JFree]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that between 20,000 to 52,000 Americans have succumbed to influenza this season.

In line with your testing article, I hope some of those who died in February of 'pneumonia' or 'influenza' are tested for Covid-19. Obviously that means existing lab samples not unearthing the dead

[JFree]

It will also be interesting to see whether the CDC's weekly influenza report shows the usual 'off-a-cliff' decline that usually happens right about now for their 'influenza-like-illnesses'. Or whether/when that decline morphs into the growing Covid-19 admissions

[Colossal Douchebag]

SARS '02-'04 was a coronavirus.

It grew in April, faded hard in May and was a memory by July.

I can't even spell chemistry, but I'm going with the SARS profile.

[JFree]

The US had 27 cases of SARS. That isn't a profile. It's a burp.

Further, SARS only transmitted once someone had serious symptoms. So it was mostly a threat to medical staff and family of infected. Which is very easy to eliminate

[DenverJ]

Why? They're dead, they don't mind.

[Unicorn Abattoir]

The global health agency defines pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease an excuse to advocate for a global government.

FTFY

[Dillinger]

if we don't scare the fuck out of everyone we won't get moar funds.

[Juice]

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

I'm still hoping that's high, but even if it's anywhere near that, that's way, WAY worse than "just seasonal flu".

[Commenter_XY]

Hold a sec. I get that Readership is correctly calling out Bailey.

Please remember, that 1% mortality is overall. It does not tell the full story. For healthy people under 60, coronavirus is probably not a big deal, and has a low death rate. Over 60, and there are mortality issues; meaning, mortality goes up - way up. Over 80, the mortality rate is ~15%. Over 70, the mortality rate is ~8%. Over 60, the mortality rate is ~4%. This differs from the Spanish Flu, which preferentially killed young people.

Pre-existing hypertension is very bad. Other pre-existing conditions like diabetes, obesity, COPD are very bad. For those with autoimmune disorders, there is scant data but it stands to reason you're at significantly higher risk. Currently, the recommendation is to self-isolate.

COVID-19 (SARS-nCov-2) is a very serious public health threat. That is not scare-mongering. That is objective reality. There are things we can do to lower the risk.

I put these in the form of The 10 Commandments to Avoid Getting COVID-19.

One, Thou shalt wash thy hands! (your Mother was right!)
Two, Thou shalt cough into a tissue, immediately toss tissue into trash. And thou shalt immediately do commandment #1.
Three, Thou shalt not hug, kiss, or handshake out in public
Four, Thou shalt avoid large crowds
Five, Thou shalt avoid mass transit, planes, trains, and cruise ships
Six, Thou shalt change thy shopping routine to off-hours, when there are few people around
Seven, Thou shalt ditch the sit-down restaurants for take-out
Eight, Remember to stock up on food to ride out a month; thou canst eat beans & rice for a month. (but it sort of sucks)
Nine, Thou shalt obtain ingredients for homemade hand sanitizer. Very easy to make
And Ten, Thou shalt use thy brain and think! This is your greatest asset.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Five, Thou shalt avoid mass transit

Urban planners most annoyed.

[Commenter_XY]

Yeah, they can blow me = the annoyed urban planners

[Commenter_XY]

Shit...I forgot to add...and thou shalt keep thy hands off thy face! to commandment #3. 🙂

[DenverJ]

This differs from the Spanish Flu, which preferentially killed young people.

The Spanish Flu killed young people because of WWI.

[SykesFive]

No, that flu killed young adults by provoking an overreaction from the immune system. This has been all but confirmed by exposing non-human primates to the pathogen in controlled settings. (For obvious reasons we're not going to put a human through this.) Young adults' stronger immune systems doomed them. Babies and the elderly were better off. Pregnant women have supercharged immune systems and sure enough they had the highest mortality rates. Note that here we are talking about the United States where the war had no appreciable effect on civilians--no rationing or general ill-health.

[markm23]

The Spanish flu spread so rapidly because of WWI. Millions of young men were living in tightly packed barracks and encampments. Tens of thousands of them were moved around every day. Thousands were crossing the Atlantic on war business of one sort or another. And none of the combatant nations were willing to cut back on their war operations to try to limit the spread of the virus.

Also, in a war medical services are stretched to their limit just taking care of casualties. There was no capacity to also treat the flue.

But it is true that even when the virus jumped from soldiers into civilian populations, the pattern of a high death rate among healthy young adults continued.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

It's important to remember that in "normal flu season" they'll shut down entire schools over Norovirus. A well known, common virus strain that is HIGHLY infectious and gives people some seriously miserable symptoms.

The problem with CV19 is that its infectivity is similar to Norovirus. Highly infectious, surrounded by a protein shell that allows it to live on surfaces for days etc. I'm trying to figure out how America would respond of Norovirus were ripping through the population at the speed this one is.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

And further on Norovirus, it affects millions a year and only about 500 - 800 people die of it per year. Yet again, they'll close an entire school district over it.

[$parcasmic, a love connection]

Are you old or something, because you're really worried and amped up about literally nothing.

[The Glibertine Party]

worried about your portfolio eh

[Real Books]

Not too many 81-year-olds in school. Not even the staff.

[Commenter_XY]

It would be pretty shitty, no doubt = I’m trying to figure out how America would respond of Norovirus were ripping through the population at the speed this one is.

[Jerryskids]

So are you saying we should panic or are you saying we should laugh at people who panic because this coronavirus thing is somewhere between being mauled to death by badgers and being trapped on a stalled escalator on the list of things to worry about? Because that seems to be the consensus I'm seeing - we don't know how bad this thing is going to be so it's safe to assume it's going to kill us all or it's not going to kill anybody.

It's as if nobody understands that the riskiness of something and how much you should be concerned about it is a combination of both the odds and the stakes you're playing for. Flipping quarters where you've got a 50/50 chance of either winning or losing is no big deal, nobody's playing Russian Roulette with 3 bullets in the cylinder. Even if the risk of contracting coronavirus is still fairly low and the risk of dying fairly low, it's not like you're going to win some sort of prize for avoiding it, it's all risk and no reward and a prudent man should be concerned about playing that sort of game.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

I'm not saying either, I'm saying we should be concerned and a certain degree of proactive precaution is probably prudent in this situation.

[$parcasmic, a love connection]

OK, well let's be totally clear then, it looks like you're shitting your pants.

[$parcasmic, a love connection]

And... You know that's not normal for you, so what's really going on?

[Nardz]

He does live in The Hot Zone

[R Mac]

Fake Tulpa is a Cathy Newman sock!

[Chute_Me]

It seems the mortality numbers are useless unless we know the rate of infection. Since most cases are said to be mild, we may never know the rate. But really, mortality is not the problem, so stop scaring people. The problem is the number of people infected AT THE SAME TIME. The reason flu is mostly shrugged off is because it unwinds slowly enough that people get sick, stay home a few days, most get better and go back to business, a few get hospitalized, in a rolling drama that lasts 4-5 months. This novel beast overwhelmed Wuhan and is now overwhelming Lombardy. Thousands of people got extremely sick within a couple of weeks, and the health system was unable to care for them. If that happens in any major US city, God help us. Who cares how many tests come back positive?? What matters is how many urgently sick people the system can handle at one time -- and it won't matter if it's cancer or cardiac arrest or coronavirus.

[Geraje Guzba]

Contingency plans should exist to address the rapid spread of an easily communicable, and sometimes fatal, viral infection. I agree this should be the primary concern. You have to be able to roll with the punch. At the end of the day, you can't prevent all ships from sinking but you can prepare to have enough life boats.

COVID-19 is a lifeboat problem.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

My concern for the US is the people who are in charge of the lifeboats have never been in the water and instead have been printing pamphlets out on obesity, vaping and getting more girls involved in STEM fields.

Essentially, too many decades of good living has made everyone incredibly soft, and no one knows what to do when the shit hits the fan.

[Metazoan]

Not to mention the epidemic of gun violence.

[Rich]

Consider for comparison that just over 2.8 million Americans died in 2018.

So just being alive has a 2.8 million / 328 million = 0.85 % mortality rate.

[Echo Chamber]

good perspective

[Gray_Jay]

Even that's escalated a lot from 2015 and '16. IIRC, but go check CDC M&M, the death rate then was in the 7 per 1000 range.

[markm23]

That annual mortality rate of 0.85% will have to be going up in the future, unless we're going to have a life expectancy of 100/.85 = 117 years. We must still have more young people that you'd see in a population that has reached a steady state.

[BunkerBill]

The more undiagnosed cases that there are, the lower the mortality rate actually is.

[Eddy]

To paraphrase Rumsfeld: What do we know? Do we know which things we don't know?

Am I a character in Chicken Little, or The Stand?

[Azathoth!!]

There is no accurate count of people infected and there never will be.

Likewise, there is no accurate count of the number of people who get the flu every year.

Mild cases--the vast majority--never get reported.

Someone feels lousy for a few days and goes on with their lives.

All the numbers of infected are estimates or represent the fraction that actually go to a doctor.

So let's light up some estimates.

It is estimated that there are between 2.1 and 4.2 billion cases of human corona virus EVERY YEAR.

That's because it's estimated that humans get between 2 and 4 colds per year. Corona viruses account for 15% of the total.

Now, that's not COVID-19, but it spreads like a cold, and acts like a cold, and is prevented like a cold, and has the same ability to lead to complications like a cold (complications are what's killing people--not the virus itself).

People need to understand what they're actually dealing with here.

For most people, COVID-19 is the kind of illness where you feel a bit shitty on Thursday, maybe or maybe not decide to call in, pop some nyquil or some theraflu, decide to just laze around on the weekend instead of going out. Maybe you spend Saturday in bed. You feel a bit better on Sunday and toss around the idea of calling off Monday. Maybe you do, but you use it more as a vacation day than a sick day, and you show up at work 'better'.

No doctor, no worries. You just think you had one of the many strains of winter ick going around.

And you did. It was COVID-19. But you'll never know that.

[Geraje Guzba]

Yeah, but your story isn't a panic inducing bromide. And it doesn't have the benefit of leaving an extended trail of half-assed inferences and foundless suppositions that can be connected to Donald Trump. Nobody is going to read your boring story.

[JFree]

There is no accurate count of people infected and there never will be.

Oh horseshit. China and S Korea - maybe even Iran and Italy - are almost certainly developing an antibody test

Anyone who has those antibodies will have been exposed.
Anyone who has the antigen (current test) is still infected.

The combo provides tons of information and will almost certainly be provided/incentivized for everyone to get at some point.

[Azathoth!!]

Oh horseshit. China and S Korea – maybe even Iran and Italy – are almost certainly developing an antibody test

Not everyone is tested.

Ever.

And the people that DO get tested are the ones who get sick enough that they think they need to see a doctor. So even those numbers are skewed.

[Geraje Guzba]

//Not everyone is tested//

To which these unreachable clowns respond, in unison: "Uh, yeah, because they're not being tested. Duh!"

Like, if only the doctors and experts tried, and weren't brainwashed by Donald Trump to be evil, they could totes test everyone. Everyone.

[jcw]

yeah, everyone here is arguing that every single person ever should be tested. Can you consciously acknowledge all the straw men you create or is this all just an under the radar, unbiased skewing of words that are said to you?

[JFree]

You are missing the point. And like all R's it is because you are stupid and obtuse.

An antigen test (the current) tests whether you are currently infected
An antibody test tests whether you have EVER been infected

And you don't need to test everyone to find out roughly what % have been infected. Just a large enough random sample

[[your name here]]

And if someone with the antibodies never gets tested because they recover over the weekend...?

Or should Big Brother coerce everyone in the country to get tested. And if we coerce illegal immigrants, is that racist?

[Echo Chamber]

Lack of testing in the U.S. might be hiding something, but that something would quickly be out in the open in the form of increased hospitalizations. This thing has likely been in the U.S. for months already, so it's certainly taking its time reaching the fan.
Or maybe this is Mother Nature's way of fighting climate change.

[newshutz]

You mean the cold that floored me the last week of January might have been Corona? But I have only been drinking Sam Adams.

[Titus PUllo]

Worried about false positives on the testing...

Two weeks ago the "experts" were saying it was nothing to worry bout and "woke" journalists were worried Trump would take advantage of a "mild" virus and put more travel restrictions and enforce tougher immigration enforcement. Funny how things change.

I met Fauci back in 1984..AIDS was the big disease and he came to my college to give a talk on work to detect and map the virus..seemed more like a bureaucrat than a scientist..but he did stick around and take some questions...short guy though..maybe 5'7" Seems like he did ok with his career.

[Sevo]

Read "The Band Played On", Shilts, for some background on Fauci.

[DenverJ]

So, I work for a charter school, k-8th, and we had a meeting today about coronavirus. We start spring break next week, and instead of doing the stuff we had planned to do when the building was empty (insert joke here), we are going to soak every part of the building with very powerful disinfectants and virocides.
Of course, the kids and their families are going to Disney Land, the movies, etc. The district is saying that a single case will shut the school. They are treating it as "when", not "if". In which case I have to disinfect the whole building again. Bright side is that it will be for two weeks, so I can get the stuff I was suppossed to do next week done then, instead.
They will probably try to time the 14 days of being closed so that 4 of the days are on the weekend, thus avoiding so many missed educational hrs that we need to extend the school year.

[markm23]

Michigan apparently closed _all_ the schools, all over the state, for 3 weeks. That's after one confirmed case in Detroit. I guess they are hoping that most of the symptom-free infections will be over within 3 weeks.

[Weigel's Cock Ring]

If everyone is really this terrified that we're all going to die from COVID-19, then why doesn't Reason's ask their chocolate messiah, Block Insane Yomomma, if he can find it within himself to just leave the confines of his heavily fortified underground bunker at 2446 Belmont Road in Kalorama for a few minutes, lift his divine arms upwards towards the heavens, and ask the Holy Father to have mercy on all his children and eliminate this virus and spare all our lives??

[Sevo]

"...Block Insane Yomomma..."

Did the 1st-graders give you a nervous laugh, or just look embarrassed for you?

[Gray_Jay]

It's one of the dumber monikers Mikey came up with. Plus, it's counterproductive to getting people to actually agree with you.

I think a lot of what that handle posts here, while pungent, isn't necessarily wrong. I'd phrase it differently, or add supporting cites, but it's not as wrong or triggers the scroll-scroll-scroll reflex like stuff the Rev posts.

Then I read something like the above, and wonder what the hell was I thinking. He detests Obama though, so at least we have that in common.

[shamrock]

There is a vaccine for flu, not for covid-19, so a lot more people may become infected. Combined with the 10-25 higher mortality rate the actual number of deaths could number in the millions.

[Sevo]

Or not.

[Gray_Jay]

Let's assume 25 percent of the pop gets it this year. Let's also assume 2 percent CFR as the healthcare industry gets crushed by the crush. That's 3.29 E 8 people X 0.25 X 0.02. Or 1.65 million or so, most of them old farts.

It'll be a big deal. It won't be the Spanish Flu or widespread EBOLA, but it'll kill quite a few people. And this assumes no unpleasant sequelae like: a recovered case is much more susceptible to some other pulmonary or respiratory ailment, recovered cases don't exhibit antibody-aided binding like dengue does, recovered cases don't have any lingering immune issues,.. Stuff like that.

[Sevo]

Let’s assume you're pulling numbers out of your ass.

[JesseAz]

There is a vaccine for some strains of the flu. They often choose wrong strains for the vaccine.

[shamrock]

That's because the vaccine works. The strains in the vaccine are suppressed in the population. It's the strains that aren't covered that are able to spread.

[ThomasD]

That is flat out wrong.

[ThomasD]

The flu vaccine is an annual thing. A best guess combination of two A strains, and one B strain. Many years it misses the most prevalent strain entirely.

Coronavirus causes a significant portion of all common colds, we could make vaccines using existing know strains but the same problem occurs - it's constantly changing and novel versions are always appearing. Because most (but certainly not all!) colds are mild it's just not worth the time and effort.

That's what we have right now, a new version of an old problem. It is possible you are correct and it will be very bad, but it is also entirely possible we've been down this very same road before - before we had all the testing and worldwide apparatus to make us aware that this years "really bad cold and flu season" was actually one (relatively) new thing.

[Curly4]

How can Dr. Anthony Fauci or anybody else figure the mortality rate before we get a good handle on the infection rate. There is no denominator for this math problem so any number that is put out now is just blowing hot air out their a**. That is some none of us need at this time. People are overly scared as it is now so when we are told that Covid-19 has a much higher mortality rate than the seasonal flue and the flue deaths generally fall between 20K and 70K that even frighten them even more. What we need is some one to quieten the fears so people can return to a more normal live. We are seeing than in China where this virus started a couple of months before it was here in the US is now on the decline and people are returning to normal. The same will be happening here in the US soon. But I know soothing is not the way people make a name for themselves. Nor is it a way the news media sells adds or gets clicks on their online news.

[Incredulous]

That is correct!

[Incredulous]

I am an emergency physician. When Dr. Fauci claims Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly than the flu, he's FOS. Nobody knows the denominator due to limited testing. The numerator, total deaths, suggests it won't be nearly as deadly as the flu. Covid has killed about 4,600 over 3 months. The flu kills 300,000 to 600,000 every year (12 months). Do the math. Also, it should wane in warmer months ahead. And we should have a vaccine by next season - corona viruses are not too challenging in this respect. There are unknowns but there is good reason not to panic from the fearmongering.

[Cyto]

This is the curve of knowledge on these viruses every time. It starts out with a really high mortality rate, because the only cases we know about are people who go to the hospital. Heck, they only find out about it after a bunch of people start dying in a cluster and someone starts investigating the cause.

Then as the disease spreads they start getting more cases of people going to the doctor who would not have gone to the hospital. So the number drops really fast.

This is the "Holy crap, 8% mortality!!" to "This is terrible, 6% mortality!!" to "It has 4% mortality" shift you see over a couple of months.

Then, at some point they get the money to do a large cohort and test a cross section to find out the true infection rate. This, of course, usually comes much later in the course of the disease. It takes time to get to that point.

As those numbers come in, we'll see something closer to the actual mortality rate.

If history is a guide, the rate will drop quite a bit again. Fauci is already factoring in another big drop, so maybe that's all there is. Or maybe his guess is off by 10x and it is similar to the flu.

In any event, it is likely to be a pretty big deal. But I wonder if it will be as big of an event as the reaction has been?

2 years ago the flu killed 60 to 80 thousand Americans (80k was the most recent estimate). Nobody really noticed. There wasn't panic. They didn't close down the border, or cancel Easter.... So if this turns out to be bad and 100k people die, will this have been worth it? 100k mostly elderly, in a wash of millions in that cohort who die? What if it is 50k? I'd say it certainly wasn't worth if it turns out to be less fatal than a slightly bad flu season.

But what if the number is 10x? What if it is 200k to 800k? I suppose there will be panic in the streets. But even that horrific number isn't catastrophic.

Of course, if that is the number I'll very likely be personally affected. My father is definitely in the highest risk group.

I don't know the answer, but my experience with these media driven health scares is that they are always oversold early on. Both of the earlier corona virus scares out of China turned out to be much less lethal than initially suspected. The avian flu from a few years back was feared to have an 8% mortality rate among the young and healthy when it was in Mexico. It turned out to be fairly close to a normal flu season.

Cities in China are massive and dense. If it really is a super-killer, you'd think that they'd have numbers tipping way, way north of a couple thousand. They have 4x the population of the USA... so you'd think they would already be pushing past a typical US flu season, as this virus has been circulating since last fall.

[Incredulous]

Two reasons why I think the numbers are much lower than Fauci's estimates. In South Korea, they had the most extensive testing to date with a 0.6% mortality rate and this is still a high number since they didn't test neatly everybody. Secondly, the overall death toll should be higher than 3,176 in China after 3 months if it was as lethal as the flu. China has 4 times the population of the US and a poorer health system and sanitation. The flu kills about 10,000 per month in the US every flu season! So Covid kills 1/3 as many per month in a country 4 times the size with poorer health care and sanitation! And a denser population! And that's without a vaccine! So, yeah, who knows what will happen. But the overall picture VERY strongly indicates it does not warrant the hysteria and drastic measures taken thus far.

[OneSimpleLesson]

Thanks for sharing your analysis.
It's hard to sort through the "Quarantine yourself or your grandma will die" vs. "Lol its no big deal. Just wash your hands more."

[Jerry B.]

If you go shopping for mortality rates from covid-19, you can find experts who provide numbers all over the place. One wonders if some of these numbers are politically motivated.

[colorblindkid]

From what I'm seeing from the data, it looks like Corona is *less* deadly than the regular flu for people under 30, but just gets progressively more deadly as you go up in age from there, with like a 40% fatality rate over 70. Nobody should be giving out these population-wide death rates when the effects have such a huge disparity between age groups.

[arpiniant1]

Then you cannot read, or count count

so far the numbers say it is 30 times more deadly, and I realize you don't care about old people, but otherwise you have no point

[colorblindkid]

That is the exact opposite of what I'm saying. It is important to emphasize these huge discrepancies BECAUSE it is so dangerous to old people. How you got that I don't care about people from this is beyond me.

It is important to point out that young people will likely be asymptomatic and survive it easily, but they are a danger to old people. It is not a serious disease for young people, and for young children it seems like it is far less deadly than the regular flu, but they are a huge danger to old people.

[August123]

So far the numbers say it is about as deadly as the regular flu. Fauci did not say it was 10x worse. Per his article in the NEJM he states. "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2"
It is also what he told congress which the media, including Reason, twisted. So why all the panic now and none when H1N1 infected up to 80M and killed mostly younger people, in 2009? How come noone batted an eye when ebola cases were coming into this country? Who was president then...and who is now? Hmm.

[Azathoth!!]

Is there a political motivation to a virus whose main symptoms seem to be tanking the market and making political rallies illegal?

I wonder...….

[August123]

Yes, next question. It becomes especially obvious when you look at what Fauci wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine that the Wuhan flu's fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.
Weird how none of this panic was fanned by the media while H1N1 was killing off 17k children and young people and infecting 60M or when ebola cases were getting into the country.

[Checksixgames]

well, i don't know anything in medics world fellas.. but i swear i had ever read an article that said exactly the opposite of what the dude said. written by doctor of medics and said That the corona is far below seasonal flu mortality rate. but who am i to judge you... and tell you what to do...

[TrickyVic (old school)]

I can't wait until May or June when I can laugh at those claiming 2 million deaths in the US. I'm going with less than 2000.

Am I right? Am I wrong? We'll see soon enough.

[Spookk]

10x sounds like a lot until you realize it's only 1%. Statistically insignificant. Give me a nice death rate around 20% and we can talk.

[August123]

Except that is not what he said/wrote. Per the New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci states..."If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2"

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[Duude]

The problem here is his claim that the mortality rate is 10 times the mortality rate of the seasonal flu is based on no data whatsoever. We haven't tested anywhere near enough people to even have a sample size large enough to make any conclusions whatsoever. As we all should understand, those most at risk of death are those with a compromised immune system, such as people with preexisting health issues and the elderly, but all people are capable of contracting the virus. We need a sample size in the hundreds of thousands but we have only tested a very small fraction of that size sample. That means people that die of the virus make a much larger proportion of the small sample size we have now. As the sample size does get exponentially larger, the mortality rate will drop because plenty more positives will be of people that didn't even know they had the virus and weren't even experiencing symptoms, which is not uncommon at all. Best to look to South Korea now because they've been testing 20,000 a day for weeks now. As their sample size grows by the day, their mortality rate drops, and btw, they're already well below the mortality rate the misinformed Dr Fauci has predicted.

[PG23COLO]

Bailey, just stop pretending, please, that you know anything of value about the coronavirus or its spread or its mortality rate, and so forth. No one knows what the mortality rate will be from coronavirus because the data are insufficient, and will most assuredly remain insufficient. People who are not tested may have the coronavirus, and may or may not die from the coronavirus, undetected. This is more likely to be true in closed societies and in third world countries, but will happen everywhere, in unknown numbers. Governments may not accurately report postive tests or deaths. Doctors may not correctly diagnose cause of death and may not report at all, or may not report accurately - test results, treatments, deaths, etc. Is the death of a person who dies while suffering from coronavirus, caused by coronavirus or just associated with coronavirus? Who decides? Many deaths "from flu" are deaths of persons who have the flu. Many, many people die from illness without autopsies being performed. Flu illnesses and deaths are estimated based on very limited statistics and on models loaded with untested and untestable assumptions - in other words, on educated guesses. Same will be true of coronavirus. How do you factor into mortality rate calculations the quality of care for patients, and so many other relevant factors?
Dr. Fauci does not know what the mortality rate will be, neither do you.

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