Republican Party

Control of the Senate Could Depend on These 10 Races

Plus, a Gary Johnson honorable mention.


Keiko Hiromi/Polaris/Newscom Globe Photos/Sipa USA/Newscom BILL GREENBLATT/UPI/Newscom John Sleezer/TNS/Newscom

Control of the Senate is up for grabs on Tuesday, as Democrats look to reverse Republicans' current 51-49 majority in the upper chamber of Congress.

But it won't be easy. If you include Sens. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) and Angus King (I–Maine), both of whom caucus with the Democrats, then 26 Senate Democrats are up for re-election, compared to just six Republicans. And 10 of those Democrats represent states President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

Democrats will likely be hard-pressed to flip the two seats they need in order to win a majority. According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have an 85 percent chance of staying in control.

Of course, we won't know for sure until all the votes are counted. And whatever does happen will probably depend on the outcomes of these 10 races:

1. Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) looks to fend off Gov. Rick Scott (R).

Both Nelson, who's seeking his fourth term in the Senate, and Scott, a term-limited governor, are familiar faces to Florida voters. Nelson is a relatively moderate liberal who's focusing on things like gun control and health care (specifically protections for patients on Medicare and Medicaid and those with pre-existing conditions). Scott, meanwhile, is touting himself as a problem-solver, citing his past experience as a successful businessman. Scott supports the Second Amendment, though in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting, he signed a gun control bill that raised the minimum age to buy a firearm to 21, and empowered law enforcement to order those deemed a risk to themselves or others to surrender their guns.

Nelson and Scott's faceoff has turned into one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country. That's not particularly surprising, as Florida is a state Trump won by just 1.2 percentage points two years ago. The candidates have combined to spend at least $33 million on their campaigns. About $27 million of that has come from Scott, including $20 million of his own money. But Nelson holds a slight edge, with a 1.9 percentage point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.

2. Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is in the fight of her life against Josh Hawley (R).

McCaskill has tried to frame herself as a moderate, even going so far as to run a radio ad claiming she's "not one of those crazy Democrats." But it might not be working for the two-term senator. According to CBS News, 55 percent of Missouri voters say she's about as liberal as her Democratic colleagues in Congress. Hawley, on the other hand, bills himself as a "constitutional conservative" who supports Trump's agenda (which is particularly helpful in a state Trump won by more than 18 points).

Hawley was also one of 20 state attorneys general to file a lawsuit against Obamacare. McCaskill has seized on this, claiming Hawley doesn't care about protecting people with pre-existing conditions. Hawley, for his part, says he does opposes all aspects of Obamacare except the pre-existing conditions provision.

If the polls are any indication, this race will come down to the wire. Hawley has a 2-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average, though a Fox News poll released Wednesday shows the race is essentially tied. This race, like the one in Florida, is rated as a toss-up by Cook.

3. Arizona: Reps. Martha McSally (R) and Kyrsten Sinema (D) face off in the battle of moderate vs. moderate.

McSally was the early GOP establishment favorite to replace incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R–Ariz.). She came through in the Republican primary, easily defeating former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. A former Air Force fighter pilot, McSally is running as a moderate, albeit one with an increasingly hardline stance on illegal immigration. Sinema, meanwhile, is also emphasizing border security, though she says she supports "permanent protection" for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival (DACA) program, also called Dreamers.

The other major issue in this race is health care. As The Ringer notes, Sinema played a role in drafting the Affordable Care Act, which is popular in Arizona. Though McSally voted to repeal parts of Obamacare last year, she's talked about her support for a replacement, as well as protections for those with pre-existing conditions.

This race is another toss-up, according to Cook. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Sinema up by 0.7 points, though the latest Fox News poll says things are essentially tied. Sinema may get a boost after Green Party candidate Angela Green, who was reportedly polling at up to 6 percent support, dropped out and endorsed her. If Sinema does pull out the victory, it will be significant, as Arizonians haven't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years.

4. Tennessee: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) exchanges blows with former Gov. Phil Bredensen (D).

Things have gotten pretty heated between Blackburn, an outspoken conservative representative, and Bredensen, a somewhat moderate former two-term governor. Outside groups have spent millions of dollars on ads in the race to replace the retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R), many of them negative. As an example of how divisive this race has become, a protester at a Blackburn rally earlier this week yelled out "Marsha Blackburn is a white supremacist" during a moment of silence for the victims of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting.

Policy-wise, Blackburn mostly supports Trump's agenda, though says she's "not a fan" of his tariffs. Bredensen, meanwhile, touts his record of balancing the budget and cutting "out-of-control spending" during his time as governor. Notably, Bredensen said he would have voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court despite allegations of sexual misconduct against the judge, explaining the evidence "didn't rise to the level" of being disqualifying.

Blackburn appears to have a clear edge just days shy of Nov. 6, with a 6.8-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Cook, however, still says the race is a toss-up. Even if Blackburn wins, it will likely be by a much smaller margin than Trump, who carried Tennessee by 26 points in 2016.

5. Montana: Tight battle between Sen. Jon Tester (D) and state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) is further complicated by Libertarian Rick Breckenridge.

Various media reports have portrayed Tester, a two-term Democratic senator, as a down-to-earth politician who tries to focus more on people than on politics. That's understandable, especially in a deep-red state that Trump won by 20 points two years ago. Policy-wise, Tester is something of a moderate—a pro-Second Amendment (at least in theory) Democrat who's supported legislation that would deregulate some banks. Rosendale, meanwhile, is running as a pro-Trump conservative who would vote for the president's federal judicial nominees (Tester voted no on Kavanaugh).

The race is a toss-up, according to Cook, though Tester has a 4.2-point edge in the RealClearPolitics polling average. The contest's tight nature is tougher to predict due to the presence of Libertarian Rick Breckenridge. It's unclear how much support Breckenridge has, but as Reason's Matt Welch reported last month, one poll gave him 4 percent. Contrary to at least one report, Breckenridge is not dropping out, instead telling Reason's Brian Doherty that he supports Rosendale on one particular issue: the shameful use of political "dark money" to send anonymous mailers. If Tester ends up winning, Republicans will still have the chance to scream "SPOILER!"

6. New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) may hold on against Bob Hugin (R), but it wasn't supposed to be this tough.

Pundits are divided on just how competitive the race is between Menendez, who's looking to win his third full term in the Senate, and Hugin, a wealthy businessman. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Menendez a 6.5-point lead, and FiveThirtyEight, which notes the incumbent hasn't trailed in any of the polls, says he has an 87 percent chance of keeping his seat. According to Cook, though, the race is a toss-up.

Regardless, it's surprising that Republicans have even a small shot at flipping a deep-blue state like New Jersey—the same state that went for Clinton by 14 points in 2016. No Republican has won a Senate seat in the state in 46 years. Then again, Hugin isn't a normal Republican. He is not shy about his backing for legalized abortion and LGBT rights, and while he supports border security and opposes sanctuary cities, he does think Dreamers and other illegal immigrants should have a pathway to citizenship.

One thing that certainly hasn't helped Menendez is his 2017 indictment and subsequent trial on federal corruption charges. Menendez has maintained his innocence, and though the case ended in a mistrial, the whole affair might very well have left a bad taste in voters' mouths.

7. Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) might not be as "cool" as Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D), but he'll probably still win.

O'Rourke has mounted a surprisingly competitive campaign against Cruz, an outspoken conservative firebrand and 2016 presidential candidate. Reason's Jacob Sullum has taken note of Cruz's unfortunate lurch to the right on criminal justice reform. O'Rourke, on the other hand, has become something of a media darling thanks to his support of football players who protest police brutality by kneeling during the national anthem.

As Reason's Zuri Davis reported, O'Rourke does hold some problematic views—his support for government intervention over free-market solutions, for instance. But the Texas GOP has chosen to instead attack O'Rourke for being in a band when he was younger, dyeing his hair, and knowing how to skateboard.

Like many Republicans across the country, Cruz has the support of Trump. The president is singing a much different tune than he did during the 2016 election cycle, replacing the nickname "Lyin' Ted" with the moniker "Beautiful Ted." And though Cook still rates the race as a toss-up, Cruz's chances of winning a second term look decent. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Cruz is leading O'Rourke by 6.5 points.

8. Indiana: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) has the edge over former state Rep. Mike Braun (R), but not by much.

Donnelly has a slight 1.2-point edge in the RealClearPolitics polling average for this race, which Cook rates a toss-up. The Democrat, who's seeking a second Senate term, is trying to hold on in a state Trump won by 19 points in 2016. The fact that he's a moderate helps: Donnelly is pro-life, pro-tax cuts (though he voted against the GOP-led tax overhaul, claiming it helped the wealthy at the middle class's expense), pro-border wall, and anti-"radical left." Braun, meanwhile, is very much a pro-Trump conservative these days, though he did vote as a Democrat until 2012. Even on tariffs, which have divided many conservatives, Braun supports the president, though he has said he wants to come up with a better long-term solution that wouldn't hurt Indiana farmers.

But Donnelly and Braun aren't the only candidates with significant support. Libertarian Lucy Brenton is averaging about 5.8 percent in the six independent polls that included her, according to Welch. The Democratic Party is even encouraging conservatives to vote for her. A Democratic campaign mailer sent to conservatives called her an "anti-tax conservative," while claiming Braun "raised Indiana taxes 159 times." The mailer didn't even mention Donnelly. Brenton won't win, but like Breckenridge, she'll likely be labeled a "spoiler" if Donnelly comes away with the victory.

9. North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) is probably going to lose to her seat to Rep. Kevin Cramer (R).

Of all the Democratic senators up for re-election this year, Heitkamp is probably the most vulnerable. The one-term Democrat is trailing Cramer by a whopping 11.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. The race leans Republican, according to Cook. So what went wrong for Heitkamp?

It was always going to be tough for her to win re-election, particularly in a state Trump won by nearly 36 points. Heitkamp is a moderate who supports immigration law enforcement. But she did vote against Kavanaugh, and she doesn't think Trump tariffs are helping farmers in her state. Her campaign was also responsible for one of the worst ads this election cycle, in which survivors of sexual assault were outed without their consent. Cramer, meanwhile, agrees with Trump on most issues (Trump's decision to leave the Paris Agreement being one notable exception). Ultimately, Heitkamp probably just won't be able to overcome a very conservative candidate running in a deep-red state.

10. Nevada: For Democrats to take back the Senate, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) probably needs to unseat Sen. Dean Heller (R).

Like Heitkamp, Heller is the member of his party most likely to lose his Senate seat. Unlike Heitkamp, Heller actually has a 2-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. The race is still a toss-up, according to Cook, and a CNN poll released Wednesday showed Rosen with a 3-point edge.

Heller, who's looking to win a second full term in the Senate, wasn't always the biggest supporter of Trump, though the threat of a primary fight against a challenger from the right changed that. Rosen, meanwhile, has the support of high-profile Democrats like former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Joe Biden, and the democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Rosen has particularly focused on health care, which she believes "is a right, not a privilege," and she's criticized Heller for voting for a partial repeal of Obamacare last year.

As Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, this is a seat Democrats really need to win.

Honorable mention: New Mexico is the only state with a legitimate three-party race, though Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) is likely to prevail over Mick Rich (R) and Gary Johnson (L).

The results out of New Mexico probably won't be terribly surprising, as Heinrich should easily defeat Rich and Johnson. This race is notable, though, in that Johnson—the state's former governor—will probably garner more votes Tuesday than any other Libertarian in the country.

Trump lost New Mexico by more than 8 points in 2016, and Cook rates the Senate race as "solid" for the Democrats. It's conceivable that if Rich wasn't a factor, Johnson would have a shot at winning, as University of New Mexico political science professor Gabe Sanchez recently told KRQE. But Rich didn't drop out after Johnson announced his candidacy, so the two challengers are likely to split the vote.

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Heinrich with 49 percent support, Rich with 31.7 percent, and Johnson with 13 percent.

Correction: This post originally misspelled Rep. Cramer's last name as "Kramer." I regret the error.

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  1. Man. It’s not like Ted Cruz is the manliest dude in the world, but at least he’s not Beta O’Rourke.

    1. Something of a media darling seems understated to me.

        1. He skateboarded in the What-A-Burger parking lot. He’s just the dreamiest dream ever!

          1. When you careened off a highway and hit another car and then trying the flee the scene he dabbed

            1. Damn that comment is a mess.

              “When he careened off a highway and hit another car and then tried to flee the scene he dabbed right before he was cuffed”

              1. Well he is dreamy.

    2. Of course perlchpr sides with Ted ‘Call My Wife A Pig And I’ll Tongue Your Ass’ Cruz — whiny Republican pussies need to sick together.

      1. Weak. That all you got bitch?

  2. Republicans have an 85 percent chance of staying in control.

    You know who else had a high percentage chance of being elected?

    1. Beto O’Rourke running for dreamiest candidate among the media pool?

      1. Ah you expressed such a sentiment as well. Well I do have to give it to the normally humorless and totally-in-the-bag activist prog media. They have been constantly calling him “Kennedyesque,” so it seems they do enjoy a wink or two at the reader from time to time.

        1. “They have been constantly calling him “Kennedyesque,”

          That’s not fair to O’Rourke. I don’t think he’s murder a woman before.

          1. But he has similar driving skills (and associated ethics), just a milder version of it. I take it that that is the wink.

        2. If he’s Kennedyesque, will Cruz’s dad assassinate him?

          1. One can only hope.

    2. Bugs Bunny?

  3. The Rs are going to gain at least two senate seats, which means that those bony, skeletal fingers of Ruth Bader Ginsburg are going to have to clutch onto this mortal coil for dear life for at least two more years.

    Good luck Ruthie baby, you’re going to need it, ROFLMAO.

    1. I have been thinking the same; she will have to clutch it from a virtual, if not literal, grave.

    2. Of course you’re assuming she’s not a lich.

    3. Has anyone verified if she is truly alive now?

  4. There’s some woke show on HBO called POD Save America which feels like a paid campaign advertisement for the DNC. They seem very excited about the mid terms– an entire election that some people say isn’t really needed anymore.

    Oh wait, that was 2014, there’s a new guy in charge, mid terms totes necessary again.

    1. After we get a new AG, I hope to see all these phony news programs and documentary makers prosecuted for campaign law violations.

  5. New Mexico politics confuse me. Arizona on one side, Texas on the other, Colorado to the North, Utah and Oklahoma at the corners more Democratic than all of them. I’d expect Arizona to be more Democratic just because it butts up against California.

    1. California is probably the reason for the slow purple change over time.

      1. Why? They don’t share a border. Arizona does, but hasn’t tilted.

        1. Sorry I meant in regards to AZ. And Arizona is one state constantly projected as a purple state. It has not happened yet, but we will see. Tucson was always traditionally Blue though, and so this type of thing is not unknown.

          We consistently elect Raul Grijalva. And he’s about as shitty as a Dem gets.

          1. I guess I can’t fairly say “we” anymore in regards to AZ…

          2. But it also seems like a lot of CA Repubs have fled to AZ and act as a sort of counter-balance.

            1. We will see. I hope it’s purple status is overblown. But even then, it’s Red status is a little overblown too. Traditional Senators such as Flake, McCain, Goldwater, were at least outside of the true establishment in some way or another. They are Republicans but each in their own way are not necessarily stereotypically Republican. In the best case you get a Goldwater, the worst a McCain.

              1. Yeah – it does seem like “Western Republicans” were always a different breed from the East Coast ones. There’s a strong strain of “don’t tell me what to do” that chafes on both parties. I suppose it’s to be expected in places that are hard to live in and are populated by the descendants of those cantankerous individualists who preferred hardship in the wilderness to authoritarianism. Anymore, though, there’s sort of a big AARP crowd, too. Hard to say where it’s going.

                My dad, a mouth-frothing Limbaugh Republican, moved out there from Orange County CA about 15 years ago, but he took his Democrat wife with him, so they balance each other out.

                1. Very true. AZ repubs are more Goldwater-esque than Rockefeller repub.

                  I’ve been hearing about the ‘purpling’ of AZ for a while. Will see if it happens.

              2. Flake is pretty awful too. I hope he ends up in prison after all he’s done to the country.

      1. Is that enough to tilt the whole state?

        1. It’s the capital so if probably holds outsized influence. But Santa Fe as a population goes, is only the 4th biggest city. Albuquerque is much bigger. Though I don’t know the politics of it.

        2. And by Santa fe, I mean the whole white, upper class crystal waving area.

        3. No, it’s not. Albuquerque, however, is majority Dem and is enough to swing the state when you throw in Santa Fe and Taos.

          The southern and eastern areas are far more Red. Ultimately, though, New Mexico is a VERY conservative state, in that incumbents are almost automatic no matter their party affiliation. Susanna Martinez and Richard Berry, both Republicans, won their re-elections bids for ABQ mayor and NM governor, respectively, and it wasn’t even close.

          1. CA progtards shouldn’t be allowed to migrate ou of state..

    2. Massive Catholic population.

  6. shun Nate Silver.

    1. Left-liberal democrats like Setyon and most of his co-workers at Reason can’t help themselves from worshipping Silver like a God, which he isn’t at all.

      1. dude gets one fucking thing right and he’s Kreskin forever wtf

        1. No shit. I love how he goes around like “you should absolutely feel free to bet money on my projections.”

          If he was really the super-genius he and his sycophants likes people to believe, he’d be far wealthier than he actually is. You don’t hear Warren Buffett going around reminding us all of his supreme brilliance every day!

  7. “Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) might not be as “cool” as Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), but he’ll probably still win.”

    Did you orgasm as you wrote this part?

    1. In the debate Cruz euchred Beto into admitting he backs hitlerite censorship of social media. The guy is also innocent of all physics and math and a True Believer? in Global Warming hysterics and carbon taxation to save Gaia. Either way the LP has an unusually good candidate in Dikeman. I hope Dikeman covers the spread in the vote counts.

  8. I don’t know if you canyon apply the term spoiler in MT and Indiana when the Democrats are trying to drum up support for them by specifically targeting Republican voters. They did this for Tester and Bullock in the past too. It is a common occurrence here in Montana. Outside liberal groups fund and send out mailers and advertising for the LP candidate in hopes of hurting the GOP. I am not saying that the GOP owns these votes, but the liberal groups specifically target people who tend to vote Republican.

    1. Dark money is good now

    2. Encouraging third party voting among people on the other side seems like a pretty standard tactic. I don’t think the term “spoiler” has any more or less value regardless.

    3. Dark money has been doing this stuff to L’s from both sides for a couple of election cycles now. A Koch funded group did this awhile ago to an L in North Carolina and in Wisconsin

    4. LP spoiler votes are what forces the looters to change their platforms. The whack jobs most bent on coercion will draw the wrath of voters, who are free to reach for the LP spoiler vote club. There is no louder way to say WRONG PLATFORM! Professional politicians understand this perfectly, but try to laugh it off and play dumb. Elsewhere, people WISH they could vote libertarian!

    5. It will be a Democrat bloodbath this election.

  9. Tough to see the Democrats taking back control of the Senate. Map is just too unfavorable. Heitkamp looks dead in North Dakota, and without here winning they’d need to pull a big upset in TN or TX and then run the table in all the other close races.

    I wouldn’t be surprised by a scenario where the Dems win 30+ House seats and retake control but the GOP nets a couple seats in the Senate at the same time. It may even be likely at this point. But even if a true blue wave materializes it’s hard to see them winning the Senate at this point. GOP could hold onto the House with a smaller majority if they overperform and the close races mostly slant their way. Not an implausible scenario by any means, but I think the Dems likely take it. 2 years of divided government with Trump and a Dem House would produce a lot of drama. Investing in popcorn companies might not be a bad bet lol

    1. “2 years of divided government with Trump and a Dem House would produce a lot of drama.”

      It will be good. Nothing will get done. Republicans will just be confirming judicial picks, which is fine by me. And Democrats will be just investigating everything and proposing the craziest of legislation that would have a zero percent chance of passage. Glorious times

      1. There is no bigger fan of “doing nothing is good enough for me these days” than me. But there is something about this particular moment that makes it different. I’ll give you a hint; it rhymes with BlockYoMommaCare.

        We would have accomplished an (awful) repeal if we had a slightly bigger Senate margin. And this is absolutely needed if we are to avoid Single Payer. So, given that we will have that margin, I find it hard to say that given that we will in any way be better without the House. As swampy as the Republicans are the number of bad things that may be passed only if they have a trifecta pales in comparison to that.

        The only real disadvantage to having a huge Republican majority is that they would pass the Cornyn No Fly No Buy and other bad gun control stuff if the Democrats and “moderates” were not there to block it for the privilege of continued grandstanding over their more extreme agenda.

        1. I’m far from convinced the GOP would actually pass an Obamacare repeal bill if they hold both houses at this point.

          I also don’t really see how it affects the Single Payer question either way at this point. Next time the Dems take unified power there will be a significant push within the party to pass it. I don’t see how Obamacare repeal or non-repeal will make it more likely. If anything repeal could increase the chances (though it probably wouldn’t make a significant difference either way); if Obamacare is still in place, there might be more Democrats content to build on it, maybe add a public option, but not go all the way to single payer. If it gets repealed there might be a more unanimous agreement to just say fuck it and go all the way instead of another attempt to build around the current system. As I said, I’m not sure how significant this effect would actually be; but I don’t see how repeal would substantially lessen the energy for single payer either.

        2. Even if Republicans hold on to the House there is absolutely no way that they would again attempt to repeal Obamacare. Republicans are all a bunch of squishes who are more interested in preserving the big government you have rather than expanding it. They are progressives driving the speed limit.

          That use to be the big talking point with the LP, but now it seems to be about gender pronouns, moderation, or something else that appeals to no one.

          1. Damn and I thought I was the pessimist around here!

        3. Lots more to rollback.

          Democrats are not winning.

      2. But the House controls the budget, which Trump and the republicans have not shown much restraint with-it will be much worse with the Dems in charge. I can see Trump signing off on huge spending and tax increases to fund more stupid pet programs, especially if he is trying to save his ass

      3. It will be horrible. The conservative in the Larry have their first chance in a lot of years to really hold the party’s feet to the fire and get shot done, like budget cuts. Which will never come with your scenario.

  10. If Democrats don’t get a big majority in the House and Republicans expand their majority in the Senate the Reason Roundup will be hilarious and we will get to feast on inane articles of rage for the rest of the day

    1. Don’t forget Russian collusion. That is all cued up.

      1. Oh yeah, I can’t wait for the “Actually, Russia Stole the Midterm Election: How a Thai Prostitute Has the Goods to Blow the Roof off of a Conspiracy that is Totally Not Insane and Unsubstantiated, But Is Definitely Insane and Unsubstantiated”

    2. I’m sure things in the comment section will be as calm as the eye of a hurricane if the opposite happens.

      1. The opposite would be Republicans keeping the House and losing the Senate and I think the odds of those two things happening is close to negative ten percent.

        Either way it will just be Tony and John barking at each other with Cathy chiming with non sequiturs

        1. I meant the opposite of “Democrats don’t win a big majority and Republican expand their majority in the Senate,” your scenario where the Reason writers would supposedly go insane. The opposite of that would be Democrats do win a big majority and the Republicans lose seats in the Senate.

          1. Yeah, then the articles will be stable and measured, naturally

            1. The comment section definitely would not be lol

              1. When is the comment section every “stable” and “measured”? Only insane people comment on articles

                  1. You don’t have to be crazy to fist, but it sure helps!

                1. There are levels of insanity. I mean, we may all be crazy but we’re not all Michael Hihn.

                    1. Except BUCS, he’s Nick Sarwark

                    2. I only wish I was that Adonis. That men of men, soon to be ruler of all of Phoenix.

                    3. I thought I was Nick Sarwark. I don’t know what to believe anymore.

    3. We should do polling on which Reason articles are cued up and who is writing them.

  11. You know, I’m not seeing a “blue wave.” Most likely, the Senate lead increases for the GOP, and the GOP holds the House. I know, midterms, but also strong and sustained economy and very high employment.

    1. You’re in for a big surprise. You must not have many progressive friends if you cannot see the level of enthusiasm for opposing the Drumpf regime, especially after he rushed through the Kavanaugh confirmation.

      1. he rushed through the Kavanaugh confirmation

        That’s gold right there.

    2. Dems don’t need a 1994 or 2010 style wave where the party out of power gets 50 or 60 seats to take the majority. They need 25, which is a more reasonable scenario. As I said above, my best guess is they’ll get somewhere around 30 seats, a fairly narrow majority. If they overperform the polls, a true wave could materialize, but if they underperform they could only net 15 or 20 seats which would leave the GOP with control.

      1. How often do Dems actually outperform the polls?

        There seems to be a constant over-sampling of D voters of every type that makes most “news” polls more closely resemble marketing spots (in the old “more people chose Coke over Pepsi” style).

        1. Determining if a poll is actually oversampling is difficult because you have to know the true identification numbers, which we can’t know without asking everybody. How a voter is registered doesn’t always match how they identify themselves to pollsters. Party ID fluctuates and there aren’t necessarily an equal number of Ds, Rs, and Is.

          Democrats outperformed in 2012, and if you look back at prior decades you could probably find more examples. I think most statistical analysis of past data indicates that there aren’t consistent, predictable biases in the averages – individual pollsters can be, but the error in the total average tends to be more random than anything.

          In 2016 the problem was really that their underperformance was concentrated in key states in the Midwest that opened the door to Trump’s electoral victory. Clinton’s national popular vote margin was only about 1% different than the RCP average. If the Dems underperform by 1% this year they’d still probably win the House. But it could be bigger and they could fail to take it back.

        2. Lately the polls are lies.

          Democrats have been underperforming and polls would reflect this if Democrats even allowed neutral polling.

          1. So all the polls, even from Fox News and the like, are fake news?

            Also, in two of the biggest elections since 2016, the Dems overperformed the polls significantly (Virginia governor and Alabama Senate).



            1. Yes goober. All the polls are incorrect and have not even been close in decades.

              Polls are biased and not good samplings at all. On either side.

              1. And there go the goalposts. First polls suck because the democrats always underperform because they’re rigged in their favor. Then they suck because the democrats overperformed in these races.

                Also if you actually read the links you’d see that the polls did predict that Gillespie would lose in VA just by a smaller margin than he did. The problem isn’t the polls as much as people who don’t understand statistics taking them to be oracles that should perfectly capture the results. If a race has a 2 point margin the underdog has a pretty decent chance of winning. If it’s a 10 point margin odds are really really good that the favorite will win. There is statistical data out there on accuracy. There’s grey area between “polls are infallible and perfectly predict outcomes” and “polls are worthless.”

            2. If the Democrats outperformed the polls, you are proving my point that polls are widely inaccurate.

              If those polls were anything close to accurate they would have oredicted democrat wins.

      2. It’s important for the democrats to lose big. The real value is that it will use them to finally show how dangerous and violent they have become. So we can finally have a proper crackdown on communists in this country.

        The less progressives the better.

        1. Our system’s structural amplification of deplorable voices, coupled with voter suppression and gerrymandering, won’t be enough to save the Republicans on Tuesday night. A Democratic House will compel Trump to juggle subpoenas, replace indicted associates, and struggle to maintain his cool for 24 months. It could get bad enough for the thin-skinned president that he pulls a Palin. More likely, though, would be a sullen, erratic Trump wrecking his party with undisciplined, bigoted tantrums.

  12. The Senate is a completely unfair excuse for a legislative body. Did you know California and Wyoming get two Senators each, despite California’s substantially larger population?

    However with that said, I’m confident the Democrats will win control of the Senate in addition to the House. This will set the stage for Putin’s Puppet to be impeached and removed from office by this time in 2019, once Mueller delivers his final report on #TrumpRussia.


    1. “Did you know California and Wyoming get two Senators each, despite California’s substantially larger population?”

      No, I did not know that.

      1. I also just found out that the election of the president is not a direct vote. Could you direct me to a Voxsplainer on the Constitution and how it’s totes racist and outdated?

        1. Take your pick. You’ll have a hard time finding a Voxplainer that doesn’t make at least passing mention of the racist and outdated nature of the Constitution.

    2. @OpenBordersLiberal-tarian
      You suck as a troll, get some better material.
      Did you know that the Senate originally was not elected by popular vote for a reason? Now it’s just a dumber (& fatter) version of the House and totally redundant.

  13. >>>as “cool” as Rep. Beto O’Rourke

    likely Robbie is biggest d-bag to run for office in Texas in last 20 years

  14. So, as a guy from the future, here’s how it plays out:

    Nelson wins Florida, McCaskill takes Missouri, McSally takes Arizona, Blackburn takes Tennessee, Tester takes Montana, the Democrats hold Jersey easily, Cruz takes Texas, Donnelly holds Indiana, Heitkamp loses North Dakota, and Rosen takes Nevada.

    Unless I’m misremembering what happened.

    BUT, the Democrats take the House. BOOK IT. Guy from the future KNOWS what goes down.


    2. Even I don’t think McCaskill will survive this. And I think Sinema will win by more than anyone realizes (the Green Party candidate just dropped out for one thing, which is big). And of course that unapologetic extreme-left candidates will become the first black governors of Georgia and Florida, making this election (in which the Republicans will indeed gain Senate seats, just as Trump will win in 2020) remembered as the one in which the Republican Party first began their terminal decline into permanent, ever-shrinking regional minority status. The purple states of Texas, Georgia, and (blue-purple) Florida will not be part of their region. But Indiana will, and Donnelly could be one of the last Democrats to represent it, as the Midwest becomes the heart of Red America, and Red America becomes as bright red as today’s Blue America is bright blue.

      1. *And Missouri will. The erstwhile archetypal swing state will become a Republican stronghold. For some reason it is the rare part of the Midwest that is actually growing instead of depopulating, so a spot of good news for the future penniless party of America’s fastest-shrinking demographic and no one else.

      2. In AZ, I don’t think the Green dropping out will have that much of an effect.

        Why? Ballots have already been printed and sent out. AZ has a very big vote by mail system, so a ton of people have already voted.

        Also, Sinema is viewed as “too moderate” by AZ progs. People who were going to vote Green might skip that race or stay home.

        1. What say you about this race as a whole, Arizona_Guy?

          1. Having a hard time mustering up much enthusiasm, tbh.

          2. I don’t follow too closely races outside my state. I don’t live there and can’t vote there.

            1. You imposter!

              1. I’m not an imposter. I’m Spartacus.

    3. Guy from now predicts the GOP takes more seats in House and Senate.

      Its gonna be a democrat bloodbath.

      I also predict all the bitches at Reason and on the Left will be screeching for weeks.

  15. Squirrels ate my post, so:

    As a guy from the future I know how it’s gonna go down. Sit back and be amazed.

    Republicans: Arizona, Texas, North Dakota, and Tennessee.
    Democrats: Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and New Jersey.

    Unless I’m misremembering. BUT the Democrats take the House. They DEFINITELY take the house. BOOK IT.

    1. You went into the future to tell us what you just told us in the past (as in three minutes ago). What game are you playing here, future boy?

      1. I didn’t go into the future. I was sentenced to be sent back in time for being a dick on the internet in 2037, and they sent me twenty years back, where I’ve been trying to get Past Me to quit being such a dick and shitposting here. Anyway, I’m pretty sure this is how it played out in 2018, but I KNOW that Democrats took the House.

        1. What’s Yellow’s take on this?

          1. orgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgyorgy

            Or so I would imagine.

            1. If you’re me, then you should have no problem filling in the blanks:

              “Tony is all ____ from the ____ down.”

              1. talk, chest.

                Seriously lose that gut. It gives us a heart attack in ’28.

        2. You don’t have a tiny winged version of you that you call ‘Cupid Me’ do you?

  16. Gary Johnson


    1. You know ? he’s the one with a leppo. Or maybe he actually is a leppo.

  17. Beato sounds a lot like beat-off. I wonder if that’s how he got that nickname…

  18. Best twatter post I’ve seen in a while:

    What It Feels Like to Be Disenfranchised by a Voter ID Law

    I had my:
    ? valid driver’s license
    ? student ID
    ? voter registration card
    ? a copy of my birth certificate
    ? my lease

    and that still wasn’t enough. I couldn’t vote.

    Turns out a GA resident feels disenfranchised after committing tax evasion, insurance fraud, and attempted voter fraud because he wanted to vote in Tennessee, and they didn’t let him.

    The comments are fantastically heartening.

    1. Best thing I’ve seen all day.

    2. Thanks man! Love shit like this to counter the Lefty ass MSM and TReason.

  19. Is this the official weekend election thread? Can we get one of those? I’m just doing some yardwork and stuff as far as I know.

  20. Democrats are gonna be crying Wednesday after they find out that Trump broke another record by his great presidency allowing the GOP to take more Congressional seats from Democrats.

    1. Are you talking about the Senate or the House? Are you projecting GOP gains in both houses or just the former?

      1. He tends not to answer when pressed for specifics about his “Red Wave” prediction.

      2. GOP takes more seats in House AND Senate.

        1. If you’re confident in that you should put some serious dough on a “GOP will gain seats” bet. That should basically be free cash for you since the betting markets significantly favor the Dems outright winning the House, let alone just gaining seats.

  21. SPOILER crying is evolution in action. Dems seeking to ban electricity, tax all air breathed outside of China and lard on regulations have their platform committee to thank when they lose. Republicans carpet-biting for an amendment to ban birth control, whining for cops to shoot kids–especially brown kids–over plant leaves, and saber rattling at medieval sand people a planet-width away also get what they deserve when voters eschew cowardice and spoiler-vote the looters upside the head.

  22. MAGA and Lefty tears next week. Bet on it.

    1. Have you?

  23. The Republicans will win all of these races. Just wait and see ….

  24. This article shows Reason’s determination to mainstream itself, leaving its shallow libertarian roots behind. Smart move considering the disappearance of anything like a libertarian movement.

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