Budget Deficit

Runaway Deficits Forever

Is anybody actually interested in balancing the federal budget?

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Dollars
Discovercore / Dreamstime.com

Upon becoming House speaker in 1995, Newt Gingrich decided it was crucial to adopt a plan to eliminate the federal deficit. In a meeting of House Republicans, Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich balked: "Where is it in stone that we have to balance the budget in seven years?"

Gingrich had a quick answer: "Let's put it to a vote. Who wants to put it in stone?" Everyone but Kasich voted yes. The Republicans had made a commitment they would have to keep.

Contrast that show of determination with the vote last week by Senate Republicans for a budget resolution that projects an increase in the public debt of $9 trillion over the next decade. The supporters said that for arcane reasons involving budget rules and the repeal of Obamacare, the resolution is needed. But in practice, they insisted, they don't intend to allow such a flood of red ink.

Maybe not. But the fiscal responsibility upheld by Gingrich and company—which led to a balanced budget not in 2002 but in 1999—is not visible on either side of the aisle today. Between 2009 and 2015, the deficit shrank from $1.4 trillion to $438 billion—but last year, it rose, and the Congressional Budget Office expects it to balloon to $1 trillion by 2024.

Nor is the incoming president likely to accept serious budget discipline as President Bill Clinton did. On the contrary, Donald Trump will probably cause a lot of congressional Republicans to stop worrying and learn to love the deficit.

House Republicans have a plan to balance the budget by 2026, but the details are lacking. Not only that but they will have to contend with the next president. The Tax Policy Center in Washington reported in October that his proposals would add $7.2 trillion to the government debt over the next decade—comparable to what has been piled up in the past eight years.

There are other alarming signs. Trump's border wall with Mexico will cost $8 billion by his calculation and double or triple that by other estimates. He claims Mexico will pay for it. But he and Congress aren't prepared to wait for him to get the money. They plan to start construction now and send Mexico the bill.

This is the equivalent of taking out a loan that you plan to pay off with the lottery ticket you just bought. In the best (and least plausible) case, we'll have to wait awhile for the Mexican treasury to cut the check—"a year or a year and a half," Trump blithely estimated at his news conference Wednesday. In the worst case—which happens to be the one President Enrique Pena Nieto has embraced—we won't get a single peso and American taxpayers will eat the expense.

Scrapping the Affordable Care Act, it turns out, would be a fiscal loser overall because of the taxes it imposed and the Medicare savings it implemented. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently reported that a full repeal would add between $150 billion and $350 billion to the debt over the next 10 years.

Under a fiscally responsible approach, the CRFB advised, "savings from repealing parts of the ACA must be large enough to not only finance repeal of any of ACA's offsets, but also to pay for whatever 'replace' legislation is put forward. This is not an easy task, and it will likely require policymakers to retain or replace the majority of ACA's health and revenue offsets."

But Congress and the president-elect appear to have every intention of torching the ACA now and fighting the budget fire later. Reducing taxes while pledging to cut spending eventually is a familiar tactic, and it functions reliably to enlarge budget problems rather than solve them.

The ongoing retirement of the baby-boom generation puts great pressure on the budget, as it has to cover more and more retirement checks and Medicare bills. Another looming strain is the interest on the debt, which has been pleasantly manageable because interest rates have been so low. But they are bound to rise in the coming years, and if Trump gets his fiscal plans enacted, interest alone could cost taxpayers upward of $1 trillion a year a decade from now.

Both Congress and the president-elect have told Americans they will balance the budget. But that promise is written in sand.

© Copyright 2017 by Creators Syndicate Inc.

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  1. House Republicans have a plan to balance the budget by 2026, but the details are lacking.

    Oh shit, really? They’ll solve it, but in ten years when everyone is out of office.

    *magic twinkle fingers*

    BELIEVE.

    1. Budget surpluses are easy:
      1. Underestimate expenditures
      2. Overestimate revenue
      3. Surplus!

      1. I can make it easier.

        1) Fuck You
        2) Cut Spending

        1. Also this:

          Don’t tax you,
          Don’t tax me,
          Tax the fella
          Behind the tree!

          Now THAT is a “poplar” stance on taxes!

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    2. Has there ever been a budget plan that goes that far into the future that has actually worked out as planned?

      I tend to doubt it.

      Make a plan to balance the budget in 4 years or less or you are just bullshitting.

      1. Make a plan to balance the budget in 4 years or less this year or you are just bullshitting.

        FTFY.

    3. Rand Paul has called out his own party on this in a speech last week and plans to introduce a budget proposal that will balance the budget in 5 years. Other than that, nobody in DC seems to really give a shit.

      1. He and his father seem to be the only people, in DC, that understand real budgets, not living beyond our means!

  2. Hey, Chapman, I’m just, liek, super curious here.

    So, you know that your audience here basically think of you as a fucking useless tool foisted upon them by a thick-headed editorial staff that doesn’t give a shit.

    What’s your game plan here? Fuck the audience if that’s what the editors pay for? They’ll deal with the editorial staff and this can’t possibly reflect on you?

    No such thing as a free lunch, Chapman. They can make us look at your handle, but they can’t stop us talking shit about what a useless mainstream tit who couldn’t provide value in the private sector if it weren’t for his buddies keeping him afloat.

    It’s a symbiotic relationship, Chapman. I’m wondering how long fighting the audience is going to work well for you. And it’s possible it’s going to be a long time, I’m just saying that if that happens, protectionism doesn’t make you GOOD. It just makes you employed, while your readers think you’re a dipshit.

    But hey, if you cool with being a well-paid public dipshit, then think no further, brah. You have arrived.

    1. Chapman is probably not even aware that Reason syndicates his shitty column – his actual employer is the Chicago Tribune and his actual audience is Chicago Tribune readers, among whom he is considered to be a radical right wing interloper.

      1. Is Chapman the most Libertarian commentator in a major city newspaper?

        1. Would Walter Williams count? He’s actually intelligent.

      2. No, that would be John Kass or other writers. Tribune is still center-right in its editorial position. It’s certainly not the McCormick anti-interventionist right that it once was, but it is definitely the pro-business Wall Street Journal-lite right.

    2. Pay me well and I’ll be happy to be a dipshit. I’m very qualified!

    3. Uh…what on earth is even your bitch about this column? It’s more in tune with Reason’s readership to be in favor of budget deficits?

  3. But the fiscal responsibility upheld by Gingrich and company?which led to a balanced budget not in 2002 but in 1999

    No it didn’t.

    The Tax Policy Center in Washington reported in October that his proposals would add $7.2 trillion to the government debt over the next decade?comparable to what has been piled up in the past eight years.

    Give or take a couple trillion.

    Under a fiscally responsible approach, the CRFB advised, “savings from repealing parts of the ACA must be large enough to not only finance repeal of any of ACA’s offsets, but also to pay for whatever ‘replace’ legislation is put forward.

    Just claim illusory savings that never materialize based on quadruple counting benefits vs costs – worked when they passed the ACA.

    1. The $7.2 trillion number is actually just the additional amount above the current baseline. So the actual added debt would be more. Also, I think it doesn’t account for planned increases in spending above the baseline.

  4. Besides, Debt is good

    AUG. 21, 2015

    Believe it or not, many economists argue that the economy needs a sufficient amount of public debt out there to function well. And how much is sufficient? Maybe more than we currently have. That is, there’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt.

    Until it isn’t

    JAN. 9, 2017

    Not long ago prominent Republicans like Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House, liked to warn in apocalyptic terms about the dangers of budget deficits, declaring that a Greek-style crisis was just around the corner. But now, suddenly, those very same politicians are perfectly happy with the prospect of deficits swollen by tax cuts[…]

    Those apocalyptic warnings are still foolish: America, which borrows in its own currency and therefore can’t run out of cash, isn’t at all like Greece. But running big deficits is no longer harmless, let alone desirable.

    1. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can read that and see it as anything but double speak. He mentions that debt was good, right before saying it is not good anymore. And then right before that lambasts politicians for being two-faced.

      Is it just that he is an authority? And that people trust experts with so little reservation that it does not matter if the experts argument is contradictory?

    2. So Krugman is no longer in favor of a huge stimulus plan? No more prepping for an imaginary outer-space alien invasion? Why is that, Paulie?

      1. The same people who wanted Obama to get around Congress by minting a few trillion dollar coins are now dreadfully worried about the deficit and national debt. It is tragic comic.

    3. Have we considered the possibility that this entire subject is outside Krugman’s economic area of expertise and that he is thus talking out of his ass according to which ever party is in power?

      1. There is that and the fact that Krugman went nuts sometime in the 1990s.

        1. There is also the strong possibility that Krugman doesn’t actually write his column, that it is his wife instead.

        2. I don’t know if it’s a known fact or rumor, but I’ve read that Krugman’s wife, who is apparently even more of a batshit lefty loon than he is, has been ghost writing a lot of his material for a while now.

          1. I have never heard that. Is Krugman just old and sick or lazy or something?

            1. Ever see the movie Misery?

              1. “I’m your number one faaaaannnnn, Paul Krugmannnnn!”

            2. I think he just likes the life-style being the house economist for the limousine liberal set comes with. Its like being astrologer to the stars. Right, wrong, who cares? Tell them what they want to hear today.

    4. We owe it to ourselves to continue to owe it to ourselves…

  5. Scrapping the Affordable Care Act, it turns out, would be a fiscal loser overall because of the taxes it imposed and the Medicare savings it implemented. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently reported that a full repeal would add between $150 billion and $350 billion to the debt over the next 10 years.

    BIPARTISAN!!!!

    Seriously, this is some of the most senseless math imaginable. One must admire the contortions it takes to translate removal of government obligations to increasing the debt.

    1. And even if it is a “fiscal loser”, it is still a horrible unconstitutional program. Even if repealing it does cost money, that is still not a reason to keep the act. It just means we will have to cut money elsewhere. If Congress doesn’t, then that is on them but it is still not a justification for keeping an unjust, unconstitutional law.

    2. Considering Medicare and Medicaid are seriously intertwined with the ACA, it’s no surprise at all that it would add govt debt. You can’t just “cut it” and think things are gonna end up fine with no additional work.

    3. The worst estimate is that, 10 years from now, it would add 0.35 trillion to the currently-20 trillion debt?

      Not a bad deal…

      1. I was going to say. We’re fighting over $35B a year on CMS payments? That’s basically a rounding error. Recent estimates place fraudulent payments at approximately $100B/year.

        1. There’s nothing preventing the repeal from retaining the savings from medicare. The additional taxes alone don’t cover the additional expenditures on obamacare. And if all the states were to expand medicaid per the original plan and given the 50% higher per capita medicaid expenditures I’m confident that a repeal would definitely be a deficit reducer.

          But I guarantee team blue will suddenly find the vital necessity of restoring thise medicare cuts.

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  7. Did the Tax Policy Center guys factor in the savings from eliminating the education department, and a 50% reduction in HHS?

    1. I think their numbers are just based on taxes, not spending. But every analysis I’ve seen has Trump’s plans adding trillions to the debt above the current baseline. Even if he did eliminate the DOE and cut HHS by 50%, those departments don’t get anywhere near enough funding to offset everything else.

  8. “Nor is the incoming president likely to accept serious budget discipline as President Bill Clinton did.”

    Canard. The sly, disingenuous interjection discloses the childish view of his sleazy heroes, in an awkward attempt to salvage the low-life’s memory.
    Two decades ago, the ne”er-do-well did not accept serious budget discipline, . He was force fed it.

    1. Yes he was. And what about Trump makes him any more or less likely to be forced to do it than Clinton?

      1. And what about Trump makes him any more or less likely to be forced to do it than Clinton?

        It’s not about Trump, but rather about Congress. Congressional Republicans ceased to care about debts after Clinton. Even under Obama, another Democratic President, they have made very little effort to constrain debt growth. There’s little reason to believe they’ll force Trump to spend less. There’s more reason (albeit still not much) to believe Trump will force Congress to spend less, but I’ll believe that when I see it.

  9. We just increased the deficit by 11 trillion dollars in 8 years. So 9 trillion in 10 years is “runaway deficits” but the 11 trillion in 8 is not? i would say we don’t need to prepare for anything, since this is a slight easing of what we already have.

    1. But that money was spent on shovel-ready projects! (Someone whispers in his ear) “Wait, what? What do you mean, not shovel ready?”

      1. The bank accounts of Democratic voters were shovel ready. Didn’t you know that?

      2. “Oh, ‘*hovel*-ready’! *Now* I understand!”

    2. I haven’t done more than skim the article, because it’s Chapman. But I think the argument is that deficits will continue to run away as they have for the last 8-10 years. Because no one (or very few) in congress appears to be willing to actually make the cuts and/or tax increases that would be needed. Which seems like a reasonable analysis of the situation.

      1. Except that the government already collects more income by a percentage of GNP and in real dollars than it ever has since World War II. So it is a fantasy to think that tax increases are going to increase revenue at all much less enough to make a dent in the deficit.

        And what is never mentioned and should be is that the best way to reduce the deficit is to grow the economy. That both increases revenue and reduces the significance of both the debt and the deficit in relation to GNP. And the best way to grow the economy is to cut the regulatory state. Cutting the regulatory state is the most immediate and effective way to cut the deficit. But Chapman doesn’t mention that and acts like we live in a zero sum game world where cutting spending and taxes are the only way to reduce the deficit rather than getting richer.

        1. So it is a fantasy to think that tax increases are going to increase revenue at all much less enough to make a dent in the deficit.

          My faculty adviser in college wrote his dissertation on this very subject, point-blank stating in it that absent outside intervention NYC’s finances were going to collapse within a couple of years of it actually occurring. The story is the same no matter which level of government you’re talking about, there is no revenue solution for structural deficits in public finance.

        2. “Except that the government already collects more income by a percentage of GNP and in real dollars than it ever has since World War II. So it is a fantasy to think that tax increases are going to increase revenue at all much less enough to make a dent in the deficit.”

          It depends on the tax increases. Increasing taxes on just the rich, aka standard Democratic Party campaigning, isn’t going to bring in enough extra revenue to make a substantial impact on the long-term fiscal situation. The only way tax increases could do that is by large increases across-the-board. Many other countries bring in more tax revenue as % of GDP, or on a per capita basis than the US does, and it’s because they have higher taxes on the population as a whole, not just the 1%. But the Democrats don’t ever want to acknowledge that because they know most people won’t go for it.

          1. And their fiscal states aren’t looking that great either. Many control their costs by rationing care but we won’t kill grandma.

          2. It could also be done through tariffs or consumption taxes rather than income taxes, but those are even more regressive than raising income taxes for a significant chunk of the population. Most European countries have helpfully shown that you can in fact do both, because fuck the poor and middle class.

  10. If deficits and debts are no big deal then congress should just be done with it: Abolish credit cards (and cash) and let the people have what they need!

  11. We can get rid of the FCC.

  12. Scrapping the Affordable Care Act, it turns out, would be a fiscal loser overall because of the taxes it imposed and the Medicare savings it implemented. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently reported that a full repeal would add between $150 billion and $350 billion to the debt over the next 10 years.

    Under a fiscally responsible approach, the CRFB advised, “savings from repealing parts of the ACA must be large enough to not only finance repeal of any of ACA’s offsets, but also to pay for whatever ‘replace’ legislation is put forward. This is not an easy task, and it will likely require policymakers to retain or replace the majority of ACA’s health and revenue offsets.”

    Sure the ACA is unconstitutional and a violation of all kinds of basic rights but we just can’t repeal it because it would cost too much money. You really can’t overstate how horrible Chapman is.

  13. This article was good for one thing – illustrating that Kasich has always been a fraud.

    1. Stockman too. That fucker actually fought against raising the ss retirement age faster in the 80s.

  14. IT is all about current period spending, future commitments to spend and a total that are close to 19% of gdp (real). If spending and the accumulation of future commitments are equal to or less than about 19% of gdp, a balanced budget or surplus will result. If not, then a deficit. Accumulated deficits equal debt, and debt hobbles the will as well as the ability to invest wisely.

    Raising tax rates or levying new taxes (much past 19% of gdp) are unlikely to result in higher revenues for long, without inciting tax avoidance that is deleterious to wealth creation. We do not have a revenue problem, we have too much debt, too much spending, and too many unfunded promises to spend in the future.

    The US will default on great lots of the debt and future spending commitments, as will most of the US states, cities, other nations, and many of the individuals on this planet. The default will not be televised, to paraphrase GS Heron. It will be live. It may be formal, or may be inflation, or a combination of things not evident right this minute. The net result will be effective default, and there is no avoiding it.

    This is not a partisan issue. I loathe the Democrats with passion, but they have had a lot of help from their esteemed colleagues from across the aisle. This is the establishment that Trump purported to run against. He cannot actually do much about it, but reason does not have much to do with it, in the long run.

    1. I generally agree with all this but cutting social security or medicare is not “defaulting” on an obligation in anything like the same sense as not making good on a government bond. Basically our entitlement state is unsustainable and is going to be reduced either directly by spending cuts or indirectly by inflating the currency. It is really that simple.

      1. SCOTUS has already ruled that their is no actual obligation to pay SS.

        1. Femming v Nestor (1960):

          The Court ruled that no such contract exists, and that there is no contractual right to receive Social Security payments. Payments due under Social Security are not “property” rights and are not protected by the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment. The interest of a beneficiary of Social Security is protected only by the Due Process Clause.

          Under Due Process Clause analysis, government action is valid unless it is patently arbitrary and utterly lacking in rational justification.

          From wikipedia.

          1. Yeah, cutting entitlements to make them something we can afford is not “defaulting on our obligations”.

            1. It is a gross violation of the social contract! We can’t have that!

            2. It’s not defaulting on our obligations because they’re not obligations. Whether or not we can afford them is irrelevant.

      2. Yet many people hold that view. This is a good reason why we should eliminate calling it a FICA tax and stop publishing the phony Social Security accounting. The payroll tax is just another tax that goes toward paying for federal programs. Stop making Social Security look like a funded program.

  15. Between 2009 and 2015, the deficit shrank from $1.4 trillion to $438 billion?but last year, it rose, and the Congressional Budget Office expects it to balloon to $1 trillion by 2024.

    I’m going to keep saying this again and again and again until I’m blue in the face: we’re being lied to by both the government and their sycophantic, Chapmanesque Obama mommas in the media. The current deficit is nowhere remotely close to “just” $438 billion. It’s already a trillion dollars a year, right now. I know that the average dumbass American sheeple has no idea just how easy it is to find the real numbers as opposed to the bullshit numbers, but I do however.

    And of course, as usual Chapman like all the rest of the JournoList mofos neglects to mention that we have the largest ongoing deficits since World War II DESPITE the fact that the federal government is taking in more revenue now than at any time in our history.

    1. And as you can also see on that site, the last surplus was 1957.

      2000 came close, it was only $18B in new debt, but there was NO Clinton surplus.

    2. They use some deceptive accounting tricks like not counting interest on the debt.

      1. What you call “interest on debt”, for the government is just room/reason for expanding the money supply.

    3. The numbers you cite are from FY 2016, not FY 2015. The increase in debt during FY 2015 (which had the reported $438 billion deficit) was about $326 billion, actually less. But you correct that there’s a huge gap between the reported deficit and the increase in debt for FY 2016.

      http://tinyurl.com/qgrbq7w

      1. *you’re

      2. And was 1.1tt in fy2014.

        1. Yeah, it’s true that the debt didn’t increase much in FY2015, but that year was also a clear and obvious outlier. The public debt has on average been increasing a staggering trillion dollars a year going all the way back to 10/1/07, before Obama even got into office. So the explosion didn’t start under him, but it hasn’t slowed down under him either. What dishonest Obama-loving media hacks like Chapman are doing is they’re pointing to the blatantly low outlier year to try to claim Obama has lowered the deficit, when in reality he hasn’t done that at all.

          Note that in the first quarter of this current fiscal year, the public debt has already gone up $260 billion. You don’t exactly have to have Einstein’s math skills to figure out what that comes out if you multiply it by four!

  16. “Trump’s border wall with Mexico will cost $8 billion by his calculation and double or triple that by other estimates. He claims Mexico will pay for it. But he and Congress aren’t prepared to wait for him to get the money. They plan to start construction now and send Mexico the bill.”

    I believe we give Mexico between $400 million and $500 million in various kinds of foreign assistance every year.

    Why not simply take the money out of that?

    We’re legalizing marijuana left and right anyway.

    1. We could. And we could collect 8 billion dollars by taxing remittances to Mexico in less than a year.

      Moreover, it is more than a bit comical in the context of deficits running in the hundreds of billions of dollars to act like an 8 billion dollar wall is in any way a significant part of the problem or solution. But, Chapman does that for the same reason he acts like we shouldn’t repeal the ACA if it costs money; he doesn’t give a shit about the deficit and is only pretending he does as a way to push Progressive politics.

      1. And we could collect 8 billion dollars by taxing remittances to Mexico in less than a year.

        Not when every single one starts transmitting the remittances in bitcoin.

        Which is already a thing, somewhat, because fees are less than Western Union.

        1. It is already a thing but it is not going to replace regular remittances to such a degree that you couldn’t collect 8 billion dollars very easily.

  17. “Nor is the incoming president likely to accept serious budget discipline as President Bill Clinton did.

    When we say that Bill Clinton accepted serious budget discipline, you mean that Clinton vetoed the budget, rather than accept cuts, and let the government shut down for almost an entire month, right?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ United_States_federal_government_ shutdowns_of_1995-1996

    Seems to me that Clinton didn’t “accept serious budget discipline” so much as Gingrich decided to capitulate under pressure.

    The balanced budget deal in 1997 was a legacy of the shutdown.

  18. It should be noted that, generally speaking, deficits act as a brake on spending–certainly more so than raising taxes or keeping them high.

    There will probably never come a time when the government is so flush with cash from tax revenue that it decides to cut spending. Generally speaking, being flush with cash means the government has a lot of money to spend.

    This is what starve the beast is all about. If government can be relied on to spend all the money it gets, then the solution to that problem is not to give them more money to spend. It’s to cut off their funding–through tax cuts.

    Greece, California, and drunken sailors only stop spending when they have no more money to spend. If repealing ObamaCare and its associated taxes accomplishes some libertarian outcomes and leaves the drunken sailors with less money to spend, then as far as I’m concerned, that’s a win/win.

  19. Democracy is two beggars and a banker deciding who will pay for dinner.

  20. Who wants a balanced budget?

    Based on his latest column, Paul Krugman, very suddenly and surprisingly.

  21. My apologies Chase Manhattan, It has come to my attention that I cannot continue to advance my preferred life-style without raising my debt-ceiling and going into more debt. I trust you understand, and will continue to expand my credit without any expectations of a full remittence of my obligation to you, or my other creditors, for that matter. Thank you for being such a patriot.

  22. Social Security does not add to the national debt.

    If the $2.8 trillion surplus were not invested in treasury bonds to earn interest the debt would still be $19.6 trillion…..$2.8 trillion more would simply be held by investors other than the SS Trust Fund. That is, the treasury would have issued that much more in t securities to other investors.

    If nothing is done to change SS (like raising the cap on income subject to the SS tax) then this $2.8 trillion Trust Fund will be paid out to beneficiaries over the next 20 years or so and drawn down to zero. After which benefits would be funded solely by then current SS taxes and thus paying out about 80% of full scheduled benefits.

    As these treasury securities mature over the next 20 years and the money is paid out in benefits, more t securities will be sold to individuals, foreign investors, etc. to replace the ones “owned” by the Trust Fund, and the national debt will still be what it would have been anyway without the Trust Fund ever having owned any t securities.

  23. I would think the effort should be made, lest at some point in time, don’t know when, the music stops.

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  26. Politicians of both parties will continue deficit spending at least until the fiscal house of cards they have built collapses. Assuming such a collapse results in “massive civil unrest”, martial law will be imposed, the Dept of Homeland Security will be deployed and the Constitution suspended. Believe it or not, that is the plan. Globalists dominate both parties. Short of WWIII, that is their only path to success.

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