Turkey: The Dangers of Historical Analogy
"History provides lessons for the present, not spoilers for the future."


Historical analogies can "give us a false sense of security, even when the antecedents are horrific," Nicole Hemmer writes. That's because they offer "a sense that we know what's coming next and how to respond, that everything is knowable and under control. But the reality is that we have no idea what comes next, and if we act too assuredly, too trapped within the analogy, the odds of miscalculating grow exponentially."
Hemmer is reacting to a wave of comparisons between yesterday's slaying of the Russian ambassador to Turkey and the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. I have to admit I find it kind of refreshing to see foreign-policy pundits reaching for a world-history analogy that involves neither Munich nor Vietnam. But she notes several significant differences between the situations then and now; if you think we're watching a rerun of the prelude to World War I, the article should disabuse you of the notion. Whatever horrors might be on the horizon, they'll find their own way to unfold.
In any case, her broader point isn't about the particulars of 1914. It's about the misuse of historical analogy in general. "History," she argues, "provides lessons for the present, not spoilers for the future."
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History," she argues, "provides lessons for the present, not spoilers for the future."
Excellent quote.
1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
Spoilers much!?
Don't tell me you didn't get Battlefield 1.
*presses F to pay respects*
So these guys have joined Lou Reed?
On tour? What are you trying to say?
Kinda, but the more I think about it, the less there is to that quote.
How good are your "lessons for the present", really, if they give you no clue whatsoever about what the future might hold?
As I see it, the quote should be taken to mean "What happened in the past should not be used to judge the ultimate outcome of something happening now, it should be used to inform us how to do things different this time around."
In other words, take a lesson from what happened in the past to modify what you're doing now. Don't say "it failed last time so it's going to fail again".
Yeah, but you modify what you do now because you want the outcome, which is in the future, to change.
If you are using history to modify what you do now to change the outcome, aren't you basically using history to predict the future?
*shrug*
Nobody can predict the future. The best you can do is modify the present in hopes of getting a different outcome. You can analyze the data as you go and, hopefully, scrap a project that can't have a different outcome. But, in my opinion, you shouldn't just scrap an idea out of hand because it failed last time.
BTW, I get what you're saying. I guess it's just a matter of interpretation regarding things happening in the future.
I'm mostly just being a pedantic ass.
My colleagues are really getting up my nose today, vomiting a bunch of garbage they've been sitting on for weeks or months onto my desk and saying it has to be done today/by week end/by year end.
You weren't planning on taking time off were you, Cratchet?
*Victorian applause*
Isn't "Victorian applause" done by slapping your orphans?
Ever feel like you only get noticed at work when you, or somebody under you, fucks up?
A colleague pointed that out to me yesterday. I have been depressed even more since.
She won't think she's so smart when the Neo-Austro-Hungarian empire emerges in 2247 to take back what is rightfully theirs.
You know who else was an Austrian who wanted to take back what was rightfully his?
Will he be back?
The landlord of Salzburger Vorstadt 15, Braunau am Inn, Upper Austria?
Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises
Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand II?
Schwarzenegger?
Lots about Turkey today and I understand that, given the recent news about the Russian Diplomat.
But I have to say, I'm certainly very disappointed in Reason as of late. Has there been a single Trump hit piece today? What about this week? Who's running this ship now? Someone better get their priorities right. Trump is Hitler, damnit! And I want to hear about it several times a day!
Trump has been pretty slow about disavowing the assassin.
Shit, you're right. What did he know, and when did he know it?
Fingers crossed that this cop provided security when Trump visited to open his Istanbul towers.
Ok that was pretty funny.
I'm glad this pattern is continuing.
Are we going to have to get Krugman over here, or what?
You want PaulK, you gotta donate way more than the last drive collected. He don't hack for cheap.
Their plan failed, for awhile Google autofill for Reason magazine replaced 'Reason magazine holocaust denial' with 'Reason magazine Trump'. Now it's just both.
You should boycott the comments section until your demands are met.
It's a lazy comparison that plays well for the people who see doom around every corner and rancor for apocalyptic war. Can't say I didn't think of it too.
^ This.
But once you start trying to suss out a "lesson," the comparison stops making sense.
"What we should do is make sure that Russia doesn't declare war on the country the assassin came from and draw all of their allies into a massive conflict!"
I think that milk may be spilt already . . .
It's a lazy comparison mainly because there's a huge difference between assassinating an ambassador, who is usually a relatively low-level bureaucratic figure, and assassinating the close kin and heir of a king. If it had been a high ranking Russian, then I could see the comparison having more merit.
I have to admit I find it kind of refreshing to see foreign-policy pundits reaching for a world-history analogy that involves neither Munich nor Vietnam.
Comparing every conflict to Vietnam fell out of favor after Gulf War I.
Unfortunately.
The term "quagmire" could use ressurection.
Oh I think it's been aptly used. Certainly between 2000-2008. Got a little slowdown over the last 8, but I suspect it's being dusted off right now.
Giggity?
Oh come on, you're the conspiracy guy! Where's a reference to Austrians wanted Ferdinand killed theory?
It's just an ambassador. If Russia would have put more value on him, then you would have expected a different security detail. And why would they? It's not as if Russia has military bases around the world.
Shoulda just blamed it on a video and moved on...
"History," she argues, "provides lessons for the present, not spoilers for the future."
Venezuela's going to try socialism. What can history teach us about the probable outcome of this new, bold economic experiment?
1. You don't even know what socialism means!
2. It's never really been tried before.
3. We've never had the right people in charge.
/progs
It may not happen because of this particular atrocity, or the next one, or the one after that, but eventually one of these barbarous Islamonazi psychopaths or a group of them WILL cause the outbreak of World War III. It's not a question of if, but merely of when. Do you really think the rest of the world will simply ignore a nuclear device or a major chemical or biological weapon killing tens of thousand or even hundreds of thousands of people in a major western city? Sorry, not the case. The rest of the world cannot and will not ignore such an act when it inevitably eventually happens. I just hope and pray that it doesn't happen in my lifetime, but if it does I certainly won't be surprised either.
These lunatics are so completely around the bend that I think many of them are actually looking forward to it too. They think it's going to bring Mohammed or the Mahdi back to life and restore the Caliphate permanently or some insane bullshit like that.
There's no need for them to pull off anything like that. All they need to do is be patient and be invited in by the West to invade the culture and take over. Europe is already well on the way. You have thousands marching in London to install a caliphate and the government turns a blind eye. Then you have France and Germany committing cultural suicide.
I think that fear is also overstated. What is the appropriate government response to such a march? I would say "to do nothing". How would they install a caliphate? I don't see enough voters in the UK going along with it to elect a pro-caliphate government.
"invade the culture... install a caliphate... committing cultural suicide..."
Wow, you got me scared. But Europeans are always committing cultural suicide. This wouldn't be the first time they've thrown over a perfectly adequate religion and taken up with a raving prophet from the deserts of Asia. It's a perfectly European thing to do, whether or not you approve. My prediction: It's only a matter of time before America, with its deep roots in Europe, follows suit and commits cultural suicide.
Ok. So that means you think they should do it again, just for... what reason?
"So that means you think they should do it again, just for... what reason?"
You mean I have a choice over whether Europeans act as they always have? I don't. It is their choice, and they have made it. You're a little late to be sounding the alarm bells.
You know who else thought Europe had been polluted by a religion that belongs essentially to ethnic West Asians?
Emperor Nero?
Charles Laughton, to be specific.
Torquemada?
Teutonic Knights during Baltic Crusades?
Philip IV of France?
I was thinking of Joseph Campbell, but since I was a DeMolay when I was a teenager, this wins.
Charles Martel?
The Hammer! You have to add his nickname so it sounds cool.
Martel means hammer.
"You know who else thought Europe had been polluted"
Aside from Hyperion and every other bigot and pants-shitter? The difference between me and these other goofs is that I don't see cultural exchange and transformation as pollution or degradation. I put no stock in cultural purity. I am a liberal, not a reactionary.
You're a moron. Your politics are besides the point.
Aren't you the goof who claimed "we've never been healthier?"
Nobody is forcing you to talk about my politics. If that leaves you stuck for something to say, try telling me how you arrived at the above statement. Or just call me a moron again.
It's not bigotry to point out that the majority of the publicized attacks in recent years have been carried out by a certain group.
I mean, you wouldn't call someone a bigot for pointing out that the IRA were responsible for a shit ton of bombing in Northern Ireland in the 80's now would you?
Now, it may be pants-shitting to fear the fall of Western European Civilization because of a bunch of jihadi's, but only because they gave that up 60 years ago when they decided socialism would be a swell thing to start implementing.
You are correct that Muslims are responsible for perpetrating terror attacks on white people, and people of pretty much every race. But they're done in the name of Aleppo or Syria, places where Europe is deeply implicated in violence.
Western European Civilization, whatever that is, will survive terror attacks of this sort. My greater fear is that western Europeans are their own greatest enemy.
Erik the Red?
(His own wife and fucking son converted!)
I don't think a nuclear attack (or one of similar destructiveness) is inevitable.
If it does happen, I do think you'd see most of the world mobilize to really destroy the perpetrators. I don't see that causing something on the scale of WWI or WWII, though, because I don't see any major world powers coming to the defense of the perpetrators. Maybe N. Korea would be the source of the nuke, or eventually Iran. And I think you'd see a US-led coalition take out those governments and militaries. Maybe Russia and China would sit it out, but I don't think they'd do anything to stop it. And Iran or North Korea can't fight WWIII.
^ This.
Would the rest of the world ignore such a horrendous attack in the west? No, they'll just respond by invading two countries that had no direct ties to the perpetrators, then they'll try to impose modern western democratic structures on places used to having brutal dictators ruling over illiterate shepherds. Then a few thousand Americans will lose their lives while many thousands more lose limbs, and a dozen years a few trillion dollars later they'll wonder what went wrong.
But not to worry! It will be better next time because they'll be sure to spy even more intensely on you, me, and everyone else who isn't even remotely Islamic. They'll monitor all our communications to judge any potential disloyalty, and most importantly they will make sure to thoroughly pat down every grandmother from Iowa and every toddler who even thinks about going near an airport boarding line.
Well, that's a relief!
Please don't just leave your masturbation material laying out like this.
This from the guy who spends most of his time creating dime store fiction porn that isn't worth a wooden nickel.
That's pretty clever. Who helped you write it?
Booger Peed. Am I doing it right?
Not bad, not bad.
The judges are telling me they would have also accepted "PooperFeed."
Close, but far too clever for Mikey.
Sucrose Tea?
SuckerFeed?
Take that back! It's not fiction!
Where the fuck is the dime store that you can buy SugarFree porn? The Second Circle of Hell? Slaanesh's Palace?
And what would non-fiction porn even look like? Security cam footage?
And how the fuck old is Mike M. that he's still talking about wooden nickels and dime stores?
Hihn's like "Holy fuck, dude. You old."
Sounds a little like someone has a little grit building up in their nether regions.
He's right to be angry. Here he was, idly daydreaming about genocide--all for the low, low cost of a few hundred thousand lives--and I piss all over his parade.
PARADE PISSER!!!!!
It's that sweet-smelling, sticky diabetic piss, too. It attracts ants.
LANA!
Eventually all possible things must occur, but eventually is a long time.
1914? Reading about all the terrorism and eschatology-cult driven insurrections stretching from Asia Minor through Palestine, one could find repeating patterns of history from Flavius Josephus.
-1 fortress at Masada
I think there is a part of some people who want us to be on the verge of catastrophe. It's not that they actively want people to suffer, but they've convinced themselves its true so everything confirms that narrative, and they have an emotional investment in being right about it.
Most religions I've been around have this imminent doomsday thing going, and then their invisible sky god returns to save the day. It's just that maybe the Muslims are the only ones currently trying to make it happen.
I was talking about my FB friends.
Well, your FB friends also believe in a sky god who will save the day from ultimate doom. It's just that ultimate doom is a Republican and the sky god is a Democrat.
Do you mean the sky god ELON ZUCKERGORE?
//Gets pelted with rocks by crowd of beard-wearing facebook posters.
The Christians will revert to the mean if the Muslims remain there. The idea of a culture's dominant religion getting shoehorned into a box and placed on the 'culture' shelf, with no connection to temporal power in the society, is a historical aberration that took western societies five hundred years and blank slate of the new world to achieve.
"The idea of a culture's dominant religion getting shoehorned into a box and placed on the 'culture' shelf"
The culture's dominant religion is shopping. Has been for over a century. Islam is quite tolerant on this score.
Islam is quite tolerant on this score.
Sure, as long as the wimminz wear a freedom sack and are accompanied by males.
Hey, that's a great idea! I'm going to call my new burqua being mfg for the French and Briitsh, by my orphans there, 'The Freedom Sack!'. I owe you one for that. Hey, do those all need to be black, or can I get away with some gayly colored ones?
some gayly colored ones
You're trying to get people beheaded, aren't you.
"Sure, as long as the wimminz wear a freedom sack and are accompanied by males."
What surprised me was to see a Fraser Institute (roughly Canadian answer to Reason mag) rated Islamic Revolutionary Iran an improvement over the Shah on the question of business and economic freedom. Makes sense, though, given that Iran's small business community were the strongest supporters of the revolution.
The depth of your ignorance is matched only by the unfoundedness of your smugness.
Wait, you mean they didn't want to have the ruling clerics cut everything up and hand it out to their families and associates?!
Kind words from you for a change.
The culture's dominant religion is shopping. Has been for over a century.
Do you ever get out of your basement and talk to actual people?
Only when I have to go shopping. Next question please...
Do you know what selection bias is? Also, just because you saw the same person in the grocery store more than once doesn't mean they worship the place.
"Do you know what selection bias is? "
No. Want me to add it to my shopping list?
I think there's a lot of truth to that, and I think it's tied to being a member of pretty much the safest, wealthiest, healthiest, most conflict-free society the world has ever known.
I've noticed it's very common on the "Sanders left" to embrace this narrative that the US is exactly like Venezuela, but we just have better propaganda.
It reminds me of a phenomenon I notice that's very common among people who grew up wealthy - they try to show some sort of solidarity with those who didn't by constantly complaining about how hard their lives are and how they're not really as privileged and entitled as they seem. And they think this makes them less obnoxious to those who grew up poor.
"It reminds me of a phenomenon I notice that's very common among people who grew up wealthy"
Watch a lot of TV, don't you?
She is completely delusional. Of course Russia and Turkey are not looking to fight. But guess who is? The person who just tweeted: "Oh look, another example of Radical Islamic Terror"
Yes this incident can lead to WW III - TrumpPutin vs all of Arabia. If you didn't know then you're not paying attention.
We've always been at war with East Arabia, shreek. BLOP BOINK BLEEP DERP!
/Jill Stein blah blah blah
Shut up and go away, moron.
So in other words, it's a tinder box and you just need an excuse for it to explode. Just need to get them darn pacifists out of the way....
No, in other words, you're a moron, shreek.
A thought just occurred to me while looking at Mike M's lunatic ranting. Is there any reason to believe that any modern war is not a World War?
I think people use that term to describe a war in which most of the major powers are fighting each other in some set of two coalitions.
Yeah, I get the whole Doomsday Clock modern apocalypse thing. It just seems like it could use a wording update.
The geographic distribution of the actual battlefields is fairly constrained?
That having been said, we might be in the midst of World War III already, but it's proving to be a lot more contained than the last 2.
Cold War would be closer to WWIII by geographical distribution and number of forces involved...
Were there ever multiple ongoing conflicts between nations from different continents (including proxy wars)?
Vietnam was a long war, but it took place during Six Day war, Black September/Syran invasion of Jordan, USSR Invasion of Czechoslovakia and one of Indian-Pakistani wars. South America was full of proxy wars that were simultaneous, ongoing things.
Many wars were really battles between USSR and USA for influence. Others ended up that way. Plus, supplying weapons, instructors and advisors wasn't just a Vietnam thing - we still don't know if Israelis ever fought actual Soviet pilots during 67-70 War of Attrition, but some claim they did, for example.
"Many wars were really battles between USSR and USA for influence. Others ended up that way."
Only the losers think this. The winners see the Vietnam war as a battle between China and USSR for influence.
The 'world war' naming scheme is kind of goofy anyway. The first 'world war' was technically the Seven Years War (French and Indian War to you Yanks).
^ This. IIRC that war was significantly more widely spread geographically than WWI.
The 2nd Punic War isn't bad candidate for first world war; major battles on two continents, multiple geopolitical actors coming and going (Syracuse, Macedonia), and a body-count to match.
I wouldn't count the North African coast as a major theatre on another continent, that's a bit anachronistic. The classical world was defined by the Mediterranean. A battle in Spain and a battle in Poland are of greater distance than the 'intercontinental' conflict of the Punic Wars.
The Mediterranean isn't exactly the whole world. I also echo what John Titor wrote. North Africa and Southern Europe were more closely connected and culturally related in antiquity than Southern Europe and Northern or Eastern (north of Greece and the surrounding areas) Europe, or North Africa compared to Sub-Saharan Africa.
Enough with the Canuckisplaining, sheesh!
If I didn't say the American version, you guys would just bitch about me talking about made-up Canuckistani wars, I can't win!
"a wave"? It happened yesterday. I get that people have overdosed on the Godwin w/ Trump.... but are people really pretending that that Russian diplomats are less-disposable than American ones?
The real threat is not 'Radical Islamic Terror' but the escalating cycle of violence instigated by Putin, Erdogan, and Trump. If you deny people of their basic rights and keep bombing them then yes, some will get angry and shoot your ambassadors. And then the oil industry shills who are spoiling for war will say:
And then the oil industry shills who are spoiling for war will say:
The South Asian wave of terrorism is blowback for our involvement in Vietnam!
Who can forget all the Filipino suicide bombers striking back at the U.S. for its imperialism?
Don't fuck with the Filipinos, bro. Colt had to invent a new type of pistol round during the Philipine-American War 'cause those fuckers wouldn't stay down when they got shot.
+1 Harambit! I mean Karambit!
Dicks out for Karambit?
Did you not know that Chicago high murder rate is due to blowback for US actions in Bosnia and Kosovo?
Right - why can't they just lie down and die like the asians?
Why would oil companies want war right on top of the oil fields? That is the stupidest of all the stupid things the left has been saying since the early 1990s.
It's really not that hard to understand, kb.
Wow, shriek non-ironically beat me to it.
It's addiction-myth. Or Tulpa. It's hard to tell. I dunno. Maybe it's Elvis.
It's a cockroach infestation.
An argument that, while impressive in its stupidity, fails at a basic understanding of supply-demand and finance. Constrained supply drives up the price not the profit. And nuking the oil fields would render them unusable. Oil companies want to make money not set it on fire.
You're truly an idiot, kb.
A witty riposte but not a disproof.
As an excuse to charge more and make RECORD PROFITZ ZOMGLOL!!!1!1!!one!!eleven!11, duh...
Rex?
Besides my argument above, if they wanted to make more money, there is good, old-fashioned cartelization. Why start a war (never mind a nuclear one) to raise prices when you can just agree to raise prices without the war over hors-d'oeuvres at the country club?
Take your meds, kb. You'll be fine.
Truly, you are the intellectual light of our times.
When sarcasm turns to prophecy.....
... you will still be a liar and a moron.
the war over hors-d'oeuvres at the country club
I'll pass on that membership.
What bombing has Trump instigated, given that he hasn't been inaugurated yet and was only yesterday voted in by the Electoral College?
Trump?
Really?
You really went there?
Shit, just say 'and all future Republican president-elects yet to be in power' and be done with it'.
How can you fricken omit Obama FFS!?!?
The real threat is not 'Radical Islamic Terror' but the escalating cycle of violence instigated by Putin, Erdogan, and Trump.
Trump isn't even in office yet, but he's escalating the cycle of violence...lol. Lefties project years into the future with their assumptions, its how Barry got his Nobel Peace gold star.
the escalating cycle of violence instigated by...Trump. WTF? Shreeky, you ignorant slut.
Is this something he's secretly carrying out through his chain of international hotels?
He hasn't even been sworn in, yet.
TDS should be added to the DSM; maybe you could submit a selfie so it can be more easily identified?
TRUMP IS HITLER....LITERALLY!
You know who else was literally Hitler?
Soup Nazi?
She's a Nazi George!
David Jacobi?
Bruno Ganz?
Hitler?
Heidi Hitler.
Mr. Hilter of Minehead?
How are my little anarcho-frankentrumpkensteins doing today?
With comments like above, you're not one to pass on condescending remarks.
Please at least pretend to be happy to see me. 🙂
Trumpkins might cheer for war with the middle east, but they will cry when the price of oil doubles. They got cucked by their dear leader - the only question is when they will realize it. (Now, perhaps?)
So...environmentalists for Trump is what you're advocating? $200-a-barrel oil would be boon to the windmill and rainbow industries.
Sorry you got cucked. Don't blame the messenger. (It was like that when I got here.)
I love higher oil prices, at least I did until UWTI got delisted. It was cyclical money-fountain while it lasted.
And I've actually wondered why the eco-crew, which ostensibly includes Obama, have never advocated for pulling 5th Fleet from the Gulf and closing Doha. With resulting security situation for all those tankers, oil prices will, to paraphrase the Lightworker, necessarily 'skyrocket.' Plus less military spending, smaller foreign military footprint, less imperialism etc., etc. Just a win-win-win for the lefties doing that.
And you know who got cucked? The eco-crew, by Obama. The chief clown of Carbontology promised higher electricity rates, windmills from sea-to-shining-sea, five million electric cars, and a treaty. Instead the eco-crew got fracking, historically cheap oil, a CUV-buying boom reminiscent of the SUV craze in the 90's, a toothless Paris climate 'agreement,' and Deepwater Horizon.
Haha, progtards.
OK Trumpkin, you win this round.
He didn't win, so much as you lost.
You do know Obama's policies kinda were failures in the region, right?
But he meant so well! Wait... I mean he speaks so well!
He has the correct pant crease!
Mom Jeans have no crease.
"Muslims should just lie down and die like good asians."
- Radical Bombisist mantra #12
A lot of people getting trolled by the idiot today. Better to just leave him alone and have him whine to be fed.
He's the electoral vote he's been waiting for.
"The problem with Islam is that they can hold grudges for years when you kill their families."
- Radical Bombisist Mantra #13
I'm sure if you fabricate some more "quotes" it will change people's minds about you.
I learned from Rummy - don't worry too much about what the 'dead-enders' might think.
I learned
You have so far demonstrated no such capacity.
I see Weigel is off his meds again.
Go take a nap, Red Shreek.
"This event won't start a war because we're already at war, and anyone who suggests otherwise is an idiot!"
This comment section is actually a good demonstration of why the analogy might be apt.