Pension Crisis

CalPERS Staff Nudges Board To Consider Lower Return Rates

Likely to lower its expected rate of returns on investments, forcing cities and other participating agencies to contribute more to cover the shortfall.

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There's bad news coming down the pike for California municipalities following several days of board meetings for the nation's largest state-based pension fund. Although no action has been taken, it's clear the California Public Employees' Retirement System, or CalPERS, might again lower its expected rate of returns on investments. That means cities and other member agencies would have to pay more to make up the shortfall.

A key moment, buried amid nearly 13 hours of recorded meetings, came when CalPERS' Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos played a short interview video with Wall Street experts, including famed investor Warren Buffett, opining on the expected investment returns in coming years. One investment guru thought a 4 percent or 5 percent rate of return would be the objective. Buffett pointed to very slow growth in the economy.

Eliopoulos used a diagram showing a 30-year decline in interest rates, even as discount rates used by pension funds remained steady. CalPERS currently calculates its pension liabilities based on an expected return rate of 7.5 percent. Based on the data provided by CalPERS staff, it's clear the agency would need to ramp up its risk taking to have any chance to continually meet such goals. In the past year, CalPERS' return rate was 0.6 percent.

Longtime pension-reform advocate Daniel Pellissier, president of California Pension Reform in Sacramento, praised the CalPERS staff for its bout of truth telling, given that such predictions are not what the current system's defenders want to hear. "I'd like to think they actually have a conscience and they understand the role they play," he said. "What do you do when you're facing flat returns for years ahead and liabilities are rising?"

The staff is "pushing the board to do the right thing," Pellissier added. "Some board members are essentially saying to staff: Make me do the right thing." The "right thing," in Pellissier's view, is to further reduce the expected return rates to more closely match market performance. He compares the situation to 1999, when CalPERS officials did not sound the alarm bells about the looming costs that would follow SB400, the law that led to 15 years of statewide retroactive pension increases and that still plagues the system to this day.

At least one CalPERS board member complained about the cost of reducing the discount rate. There's no doubt that doing so means that California cities will face costly spikes in their payments. But in reality, the costs are already there. State and local governments have already made pension promises to public employees. The courts have consistently enforced the so-called "California Rule," which stops agencies from lowering benefits for current employees, even going forward.

The question, according to reformers like Pellissier, is how forthright state officials will be in accounting for the size of the pension-related debt. Few dispute the essential point: Governments have undercharged municipalities for the cost of pension benefits, possibly for decades. They have to keep those promises. The "unfunded pension liability" is essentially the debt – the difference between what's promised and the available funds.

In the private sector, employees typically receive defined-contribution plans, generally 401(k)-style benefits. The employee contributes a certain percentage into a fund. Sometimes the employer matches a portion of the contribution. The money is invested in mutual funds. When the market does well, the employee reaps the benefits. When it does poorly, the employee endures the downside. The employee uses whatever is in the fund for retirement. There are no "liabilities."

The government pension plans that CalPERS manages are an entirely different animal. Agencies make benefit promises to employees based on a formula. For instance, most public-safety officials (police, fire, prison guards) in California receive "3 percent at 50." That means they retire with 3 percent of their final years' pay times the number of years worked, available at age 50 – plus myriad pension "enhancements" added at the end of the career. That level — 90 percent or more of final pay — is guaranteed, no matter what.

This explains the heated debate over investment-return predictions. If the market does well, there are fewer forecast debts. If it does poorly, those liabilities soar. Because taxpayers are pledged to backfill any shortfalls, it's a highly political issue. Additionally, critics note that the CalPERS board is dominated by union officials whose members benefit from painting as rosy a scenario as possible about the future investment performance.

Union officials argue the system is fine and that, despite recent poor performance, CalPERS does well over time. Returns have been terrible since 2014, but outperformed predictions between 2009 and 2013. But even the CalPERS staff's presentation suggests it's unrealistic to bank on continuing 7.5 percent return rates in the current market.

As Pensions & Investments reported, "Andrew Junkin, president of Wilshire Consulting, the pension fund's general investment consultant, told the committee its firm estimates the pension fund's annualized investment return over the next decade will be 6.2 percent, down 90 basis points from the 10-year forecast Wilshire made a year ago of 7.1 percent." The publication noted that CalPERS could vote on a rate reduction in February.

Pension-reform advocates aren't the only ones raising the ghost of SB400 in the current context. "It's time to put SB400, the 1999 California legislation that changed benefits for public workers, behind us," argued CalPERS board members Richard Costigan, Dana Hollinger and Bill Slaton in a September column. "That bill … was a product of its time. Retirement security is too important today to get caught in a debate about the past. When SB400 became law, CalPERS was 137 percent funded."

They vowed to examine the situation in light of the current, tougher economic climate. The staff presentation at the recent Board of Administration meetings suggest those words were more than public relations. Top CalPERS officials seem to recognize the size of the looming problem. The real test will come in December committee meetings and at the next board confab. But it's increasingly likely that return predictions are headed downward.

This column first appeared in Calwatchdog.

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  1. A simple solution would be to note the actual ROI at the end of the year and require governments to make up the difference based on reality, not projections. But accountability has always been something for the ruled, not the rulers.

    1. New York’s ERS almost uses the reality-based model. I think it’s a seven year average to even out fluctuations from trends. Though there are those of us who keep arguing for a reinstatement of a minimum contribution to avoid shocks.

      1. My best friend’s sister makes $92 an hour on the internet . She has been out of a job for 6 months but last month her check was $14750 just working on the internet for a few hours. Go this website and click tech tab to start your work.. Now this web… http://www.Trends88.com

    2. The simple solution is the taxpayers’ not “contributing” to government-sector workers’ retirement funds.

      1. Next you’ll say they shouldn’t contribute to our paychecks either…

        1. When the ingrateful shits start thanking me for paying their wages, maybe I’ll reconsider.

            1. Pointing out that we pay government workers’ salaries is kind of stupid and meaningless.

              In a market economy, we all pay each other’s salaries even in the private sector. That’s how cooperative markets work.

              The difference is consent. And that is the point that should be driven home.

        2. For, probably, fifty percent, the answer is, “yes”.

        3. That depends on their jobs.

          In any case, they aren’t precisely the same issue. The problem with pensions is that the true cost to taxpayers is concealed by overestimation of returns; then when the pension fund underpeforms, the state goes to the taxpayers and says ‘sorry, we promised to pay these people more than we can, so pay up.”

          In short, it’s not only extortion, it’s fraud.

          1. “In short, it’s not only extortion, it’s fraud.”
            ie. business as usual for government.

      2. “Stronger Together”

      1. More like Lack Friday, as in lack of a work ethic at Reason. Am I right?

        1. FOE-

          First today, first tomorrow, and first forever!

          Do not the some of the posters understand that even the 1998 Yankees lost a few games?

  2. And links are now officially late!

    1. Despite that, I for one am thankful for Hit & Run.

  3. The one non-holiday I’ve got off, and there are no Mourning Lynx?

    1. You’re not supposed to be here, you’re supposed to be getting killed in the crush of insane people rushing the temples of commerce.

    2. Here ya go, Ted: Delete yourself from the internet by pressing this button

      Sound too good to be true? You bet!!

      1. Meh. I don’t have most of those anti-social networking accounts.

        1. So you come to the antisocial network here?

        2. Oh, I hear you. I was looking for something more, um, complete.

  4. I’m all for Calexit. Let’s keep the Cassholes smelling their own farts in their own country. And we are in no way way on the hook for their unfunded liabilities,

    1. Wouldn’t that be taxation without representation? After all, citizens of the other 49 states didn’t get to vote for the politicians who created the whole pension liability mess.

  5. I’m all for Calexit. Let’s keep the Cassholes smelling their own farts in their own country. And we are in no way way on the hook for their unfunded liabilities,

  6. What’s the problem? Increase state Income taxes by 20% . Add a 20% state sales tax. Split it among the parasites.

    1. Take a 90% tax on their pension payments?

  7. Why does a pension system exist? Let them fund their retirement in the same manner that the people who pay their salary do, defined contribution rather than defined benefit.

    1. Why does a pension system exist?

      California has been defined as a pension fund, with a state as an appendage. Public employee unions own and run their government. Thank god I left and am now living in a more sensible place, Illinois.

      Oh, wait…

    1. I read (but have not confirmed) that it’s actually just one guy who does that channel, and he does all the voices using autotune or something. It’s hard to believe, but that’s what people keep saying. It’s brilliant in any case. i loved the BLR versions of the debates. “It’s time to play… Let’s act!!!”

  8. Lol millenials keep voting for free stuff!

    1. Lol, lets blame the youngest generation! I mean tgey are definitely not the most politicaly active, and not all of them can vote, but it keeps any other generation or group of people who are actually responsible out of trouble.

      1. Well as a gen x I saw this coming and voted against it my entire life… to no avail…. only to see the generational block coming behind me appear to wholeheartedly endorse even more free shit. Of course there are exceptions, many here in this commentary… I suspect I’ll live long enough to see it all burn… I’ll be the old guy on my porch with a gun keeping the looters off my damn lawn…

        1. In the new generation’s defense, they’re screwed either way. The boomer’s made more wealth than any generation history, sadly, they spent all of it and took out multiples of it in debt to fund a massive surge in the economy with huge social programs.

          Now they ride around in their unpaid for F350 King ranch turbo diesel, hauling they’re brand new unpaid for Road King Harley to attend a motorcycle rally using their credit cards, all the while preaching how idiotic Gen Y is and voting to expand their already generous pensions and social programs.

          When everything goes wrong, I don’t want to see a single finger pointed at anyone but the boomers and maybe their state worshipping parents.

  9. I see the Gomer Pyle theory of public finance is in full effect… Surpise, Surpise, Surprise.

    While I’m generally so suspicious of claims of expertise that I believe entire fields of study have little hold on reality, I don’t think I’ve been cynical enough about macroeconomics.

    In 2006 I moved to Florida, thinking about buying a house. I looked at the market, and said “No fricking way.” (Well, also, Florida, so…) Chalk that up to beginner’s luck.

    20 years ago I said to my Mom, “I’d like to make money quickly. Things are going to get ugly, what with the boomers retiring, etc, and I think I have about ten years before the economy gets a lot worse.” I was right and wrong about that one (and I didn’t actually make that nest egg, ’cause I’m an idiot.) Most forecasts were pretty rosy at the time, so beginner’s luck.

    A few years ago I started saying “Our obligations are out of control, and there is no way we will be able to meet them without doing things we will find very painful, if we can meet them at all.” Beginner’s luck?

    Well, I’m just an unfrozen caveman computer scientist (I fell into a glacial crevasse 10,000 years ago, while chasing punch-cards across the tundra,) and your modern financial instruments scare me. But if the best modern macroeconomics can do is Tyler Cowen blogging about Thai restaurants in strip-malls… I think I’m done thinking this is stupidity, and close to attributing it to malice.

    1. Modern financial instruments were crated with the sole purpose of laundering the reputations of bad investments and passing them off as having some value.

      1. Succinctly put.

      2. so, market failure?
        Sorry, guys, “modern financial instruments” function just fine to spread risk and reward. Folks who hope to get rich quick were disappointed with earlier financial instruments just the same as they are today.

        1. Actually regulatory failure. The government approved/mandated ratings agencies failed to do their job properly.

          1. If you’re discussing 2008, it was that plus the gov’t mandated push for funny loans, and some of that still exists.
            But even if the gov’t saved institutions that should have gone down the drain at that juncture, the market has long ago discounted those.
            Equities are higher than average (P/E, anyhow), but that’s not surprising since bonds aren’t doing anything.

            1. The financiappocolypse was caused by the government slamming billions of dollars of money into the system (via the Fed’s low interest rates), so that investors had to take too much risk to get any sort of return. This happened in 2000 as well.

              You can find all sorts of reasons why people made mistakes investing in dot-coms or housing in those bubbles. They are correctly identified as mistakes, but not the cause of the problem. With the dot-com era, the glut of extra money happened to find its way into stocks because of rapid decreases in the barriers to entry (low cost brokerages, additional mutual funds, up to the minute quotes available to the public, rising 401k participation rates). In the housing crisis, we happened to inflate house prices because Fannie/Freddie were underwriting a full 2/3 of all loans in the country and interest rates were kept extremely low.

              People will always make investment mistakes. But it takes a government meddling with the price of money to get these fallible people into a bubble.

              1. This, 100%! Whenever government puts its greasy thumb on the scale to achieve “desired” outcomes, distortions invariably occur, and real world, adverse consequences ensue. And then they blame the evil, greedy capitalists for their own stupidity. Lather, rinse, repeat.

                1. Well, if you greedy one percenters would only pay your fair share…

                  1. Nah, I’m merely one of those bitter Klingons… (i.e. You can have my disruptor when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers)

            2. The blog “idiosyncratic whisk” (written by a guy named Kevin Erdmann) has a pretty fascinating take on the financial crisis.

              He basically pins it (the housing boom, at least) primarily on land use (and other regulatory) restrictions, rent controls ,etc. that drive up property values and rent in big (especially coastal) metropolises, by creating artificial housing scarcities, driving people into taking out mortgages for homes who otherwise wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) do so, but rather would stick to renting (which is more affordable).

              I think economists like one I like, George Selgin, have attributed some blame to the Fed fiddling with interest rates in both directions too.

              Link to a worthwhile post by Erdmann: http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blog…..-part.html

        2. Even unfrozen computer scientist like me understand basic financial instruments- I give you food today when your family hungry, and reap dividend when your family write Javascript that lead to startup that breed mammoth. I not get food then, and no mammoth killed, but you feed other family that kill two mammoth. More mammoth for all. Unfrozen computer scientist promises mammoth for all, and expects nits picked from hair, in return for mammoth. Complicated regulatory structure and mammoth redistribution system evolve in cave. Mammoth scarce, but prospects rosy.

          People in cave mostly pick nits from computer scientist’s hair. But then- mammoth breeding program fails. Unfrozen computer scientist falls into crevasse- last thought is “May I wake unto a better world, and not eat mammoth again. I much prefer duck.”

          1. I really shouldn’t encourage you, but more of this please.

          2. Mammoth person too! No eat mammoth! /econazi hordes

        3. I don;t think the market did this, tbh.

  10. “CalPERS currently calculates its pension liabilities based on an expected return rate of 7.5 percent.”

    If these people worked for, oh, an insurance company (Yes, Mr. Buffett, that’s you), they’d be fired.

    1. Yup. Results from Q3 (annualized)

      Hartford = 4.1%

      Liberty Mutual = small loss?!

      Prudential = 4%

      1. I’m just glad my 457 plan performed above zero last quarter. (And no, there is no employer contribution match to that account, all that went in came out of my paycheck)

  11. I think it was P. J. O’Rourke who said if government were a product it would be illegal to sell it. Government pension schemes are a good example of why.

    1. Go down to NOVA on any given day and all you will see is luxury cars, Mercdes, BMW, Porsche, Rolls Royce, etc. Restaurants, malls, and luxury retailers full of people at 12am on any given day. I’ve never been to anywhere else in the country that is so thriving and growing like crazy. And all of these people produce nothing. Where is all this money coming from? From the deplorables, that’s where. How long can this continue? It’s like the Hunger Games without the games.

      1. Yeah, I worked for a company based in Vienna, Virginia a few years ago, and used to go down there from Brooklyn. And it was a sort of paradise. Everyone was affluent, and everywhere we went it was just a bunch of young and moderately attractive (the hot ones went to LA) kids sitting on patios having sangria after a tiring day influencing policy. It amazes me that the rest of the country hasn’t followed suit, ’cause we should really all live like that.

      2. You forgot the Mexican service workers who must be living 5 to a room or commuting from God knows where, given how expensive real estate is in even the worst parts of DMV (what we call DC-MD-VA).

        1. Five to a room?? Good lord – sounds like it’s time to help them by implementing rent control and maximum occupancy laws!

          /busybody

      3. Hey, being a Strategic Communications Consultant is hard work.

      4. I think the whole system is quite reminiscent the Mob back in the old days. Most people in the neighbborhood worked legit jobs, and the richest people were the wiseguys who fleeced (some of) them. Of course, if a wiseguy ripped you off, if you were lucky, you had a friend or relative who was a wiseguy, who would talk to the other wiseguy and maybe get you some of your money back, but he himself would take a cut for the service.

        That’s the populace’s relationship with policymakers. So many will gladly thank ‘their’ wiseguy, because he gets some of the money back that they were robbed of by the other wiseguy. But in the big picture, it’s just a bunch of wiseguys fleecing different people, and occasionally relenting and giving some of the money back and expecting thank you. The big difference being that wiseguys at least occasionally actually sell a service, like booze, gambling, Cuban cigars, etc. that no one else is willing to offer (because the metaphorical wiseguys, the government, won’t let them).

  12. At least some people are starting to get it.

    Why no one pays attention to the NYT anymore

    (Isn’t the fundamental characteristic of the progressive the complete inability to learn from experience?)

    1. Interesting blog.

  13. This column first appeared in Calwatchdog.

    Figures we’d get leftovers the day after thxgiving

  14. So to summerize the article, CALpers staff will likely get huge bonuses soon.

    Funny, when I try to type ‘CALPers’, my auto correct suggests ‘vampires’.

    1. I guess it’s trying to tell you/us something.

      1. CALpers uses calipers that measure down to 0.6, with an accuracy of +/- 7.5%

  15. Shit like this is how Trump got elected.

    1. NO MORNING LINKZ IS WHY COME TRUMP GOT ELECTED

      GET A BRAIN MORAN

  16. Hey, hag, you LOST!

    “See the Thanksgiving surprise that a 6-year-old gave Hillary Clinton”
    http://www.sfgate.com/politics…..635616.php

    Corruption and venality are not easy to explain to 6-YOs. She’ll be embarrassed later.

    1. “Liam isn’t old enough to vote, but he supported Clinton throughout the election and was devastated by her loss. ”

      Shitty parents, or incredibly shitty parents? You decide.

      1. Good lord that brings me back. I was actually the original Greenpeace child (or at least one of the first on film.) I shit you not. Around 1973-1974 Greenpeace needed a small child able to say “Please help stop the mass murder of whales” for what I think was their first TV commercial.

        I was a precocious kid, and certainly the youngest they could find who could say the line. I remember asking, immediately after we shot it, “Mommy, what language is that?” Well, we lived in Montreal at the time, so I was used to more than one language, and the word “mass” had confused me, as I hadn’t learned it yet.

        1. Soon afterward we moved back to DC and I got dragged to demonstrations about letting draft dodgers back. I’m not saying I disagree with any of this- I certainly did spend a lot of my early childhood being used as a prop in one demonstration or another though.

          1. They keep photographing me in ads to be the “Before” picture.

            /just kidding

            1. Well you know once when I was walking in the yard I asked a friend “Did a horse step on that man’s face?”

              “No,” my friend replied, “he attends Yale.”

              Just kidding- I didn’t go to Harvard.

            2. Well, at least they’re not photographing you for the “way before” picture.

      2. “”Liam isn’t old enough to vote, but he supported Clinton throughout the election and was devastated by her loss. ”

        Smart kid actually.

        If I lived within striking distance of her right now I might feign a little sympathy myself.

    2. What they ought to put on her lawn: Did you mean to elect Trump?

  17. I don’t think most people realize how truly fucked CalPERS is.

    1. I don’t think most people realize how truly fucked your face is!

      THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ENOUGH POSTS AREN’T PROVIDED!!!

      1. You guys are really expecting the cosmos to work on a holiday? What about the cocktail parties?

        1. I’ve got your cocktail party right here!

          *points to crotch*

          1. *imagines Playa’s cock with a little novelty raccoon tail attached to the base by an elastic band

            1. No, no – you need to imagine it with a little tropical umbrella sticking out.

              1. What? No tiny sombrero? I mean, really really really tiny sombrero.

      2. Just who has been fucking his face?

        And CalPERS isn’t fucked, the tax payer is fucked. STEVE SMITH STYLE.

        1. Just who has been fucking his face?

          Winston’s mom, or so I’m told.

            1. California Dreamin’ Cummin’

    2. I’m pretty sure very few people have any idea just how fucked we are, and CALPERS is just the beginning. Here’s an interesting question- what is our actual public debt, at all levels of government? What part of that debt are we going to be able to fulfill, and which buts will be even e able to service the interest on, if interest rates ever rise above 2% again?

      1. Calexit will fix it. Where do I donate to that effort?

        1. If that happens, get ready for an increase in the US foreign aid budget.

        2. Hmm… just jot down this address and…

      2. Lawrence Kotlikoff is the major economist most credited with pioneering new ways to measure debt that take into account a country’s estimated future liabilities. Incidentally he’s a big member of the Reform Party; I don’t know if he is a protectionist personally, but his writing on debt is worth reading.

        Here’s a description on wikipedia of his assessment. “He argues that an “Economics labeling problem,” as he calls it, has led to gross misreadings of the fiscal positions of different countries, starting with the United States, which has a relatively small debt-to-GDP ratio, but, he argues, is in worse fiscal shape than any other developed country.[citation needed]”

        He thinks (in part due to things like unfunded pension liabilities) that we may be in worse fiscal shape even than countries like Italy or Spain, perhaps because they at least have high tax rates to help offset their frivolity.

    3. Here’s how fucked they are:

      “Calpers to sell investments in two gun makers”
      http://www.reuters.com/article…..7420130219

      Let’s see, make money as we are *REQUIRED* to do, or make feelz signals?
      Why, of course!

      1. Their decision to divest themselves of tobacco stocks cost hundreds of millions.

        They’re taking such a principled and brave stand with our tax dollars.

        1. Or:

          ‘They’re taking *consistently losing positions* with our tax dollars.

  18. I don’t understand what the problem is. Hey can invest everything in the California high-speed rail project, and rake in the returns.

  19. I never realized just how entertaining the Democratic Underground site it. I’t a treasure trove of derp.

    1. They actually believe that Russia hacked the election and that Obama will just stay on as president until Hillary is declared the winner. It’s really sad in a funny sort of way.

    2. I’d never heard of it before, so I checked out their RKBA thread,
      and wow….just …damn.
      You weren’t kidding.
      It’s a deep echo chamber full of retards.

    3. Ah, I kind of burned out on it a few years back. There’s only so much you can appreciate at once over there, and then it becomes redundant. Maybe I’ve detoxed enuogh to go take another look.

      1. And by the way- easiest trolling ever. Just sayin’.

  20. CalPERS needs to invest in hellfire-proof vests, or ‘Our Peace-Prize-Winning POS Strikes Again!’

    “Obama administration expands elite military unit’s powers to hunt foreign fighters globally”
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/nat…..635822.php

    EU-trash sigh with relief as the vacation money is safe again!

    1. “It is unclear, however, if the administration of President-elect Donald Trump will keep this and other structures set up by President Barack Obama. They include guidelines for counterterrorism operations such as approval by several agencies before a drone strike and “near certainty” that no civilians will be killed. This series of presidential orders is known as the “playbook.”

      How thoughtful of the Obaminator to set President Trump up with a system of checks and balances on guidelines as to whom and how he may go after global terrorists after 8 years of The Obaminator being the sole decider of drone strikes.

      Whatever happened to The Daily Drone Lists and the President being able to drone whomever the eff he chose ?

  21. Jill Stein Can’t ‘Guarantee’ Money Will Go to Recount, Changes $$$ Goal

    And interestingly, as more donations started pouring in over the holiday, Stein moved her total fundraising goal to $7 million. She originally had a goal of $2.5 million. She also upped the amount she will need for lawyer’s fees.

    […]

    On November 23, 2016, according to a screen capture by Tim Young, a political comedian, the website stated “[i]f we do not raise enough for any recount (which is highly unlikely) we pledge to use the money for election integrity efforts and to promote systematic voting system reform.”

    All the goalpost moving leads me to believe that at the very least, the “legal fees” and “recount observers” money will wind up in the pockets of friends of Jill Stein.

    1. Maybe they can invest the money in vaccinations for poor children?

      1. In your pro-autism wet dreams!

    2. Fools and their money…

      1. look pretty good to me. How can we get in on this?

  22. “CNN confirms 30 minutes of ‘inappropriate content’ aired Thursday night”
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/art…..636005.php

    Not yet admitting the 24/7 the rest of the year.

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  25. CalPERS reminds me of a gambler who loses a ton of money at the craps table, then says “that’s OK, I’ll just win it back” and throws down more money.

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