Temperature Trends

2016 Likely Hottest Year in Instrumental Record, Says WMO

"Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016."

|

BestthermometerMeryllDreamstime
Meryll/Dreamstime

At the U.N. climate change meeting in Marrakech today, the World Meteorological Organization released its preliminary analysis of recent global temperature trends. In its press release the WMO reported:

It is very likely that 2016 will be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures even higher than the record-breaking temperatures in 2015. Preliminary data shows that 2016's global temperatures are approximately 1.2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to an assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Global temperatures for January to September 2016 have been about 0.88° Celsius (1.58°F) above the average (14°C) for the 1961-1990 reference period, which is used by WMO as a baseline. Temperatures spiked in the early months of the year because of the powerful El Niño event of 2015-16. Preliminary data for October indicate that they are at a sufficiently high level for 2016 to remain on track for the title of hottest year on record. This would mean that 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have been this century (1998 was the other one).

WMOTempTrend2016
WMO

"Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue," he said.

The folks at University of Alabama at Huntsville who curate the satellite global temperature data also reported earlier that 2016 may edge out 1998 as the hottest year in its record.

Advertisement

NEXT: New Jersey concedes that state stun gun ban violates the Second Amendment

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. Ron’s being prolific today. Gearing up for the big climate orgy in Morocco, no?

    1. I’ve got my FIRST check total of $4800 for a week. Working from home saves money in several ways.I love this. I’ve recently started taking the steps to build my freelance Job career so that I can work from home. here is i started… https://goo.gl/52ubga

  2. Spike in the 1940s: caused by WWII or just correlation without causation?

  3. OMFG WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!

  4. We need a ‘Miss Hot’, a ‘Miss Hotter’, and a ‘Miss Hottest’ for each month, and then a Miss Hottest for the year. Any suggestions for what they should wear?

    1. Wear? What do you mean?

  5. WHOA.

    That was some serious deja vu. Weird.

    1. I know man! It feels almost like I keep reading the same thread month after month, year after year.

  6. Yes, the comparisons of modern satellite data to pre-industrial satellite data are quite illuminating.

    1. Heh heh heh…

  7. The so-called instrument record is very sketchy.

    1. Isn’t that the one where they decomissioned the rural stations and kept the ones in the urban heat islands?

      1. Then they also “adjusted” the numbers, all the older ones down, and the recent ones up, to make it look more “accurate”. That’s good consensus science there baby!

    2. “Temperatures spiked in the early months of the year because of the powerful El Ni?o event of 2015-16.”

      But it’s also AGW! It something something at the thing and place and boom, stronger El Nino and it’s all the fault of mankind!

      Googles to check if 1998 was also an El Nino year.

      Oh…well then. I guess maybe it’s just that the El Nino is hot. If only we hadn’t known that for like 1000 years already!

  8. “Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. The extra heat from the powerful El Ni?o event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue,” he said.

    The folks at University of Alabama at Huntsville who curate the satellite global temperature data also reported earlier that 2016 may edge out 1998 as the hottest year in its record.

    These do not square up.

    1. They do if you stop using your white supremacist cis-heteronormative oppressive exclusionary idea of linear time.

      1. +1 Madeleine l’Engle.

    2. They know pretty much all of the media are in the warmy cult, and the chances of people calling them on their bullshit is close to nil. There’s no point for them to create a consistent narrative.

  9. Please send some global warming our way. Right now it looks like we’ve got permanent snow cover about four weeks earlier than long-term average.

  10. Last week, I didn’t sell anything. This week I made fifty bucks. That means next week I’ll make a hundred bucks!

    1. Based on my toddler nephew’s growth last year, by the time he’s 30 he will be ten feet tall and weigh 500 pounds!

  11. so in back to back pieces, Ron has declared “climate change is dead, long live climate change”?

  12. Mother Gaia anticipating the rise of Trump. PROTECT YOUR PUSSY REGION, SWEET NURTURING GAIA!

    1. sweet? nurturing? Mother nature is an uncaring, brutal bitch.

    2. Is Gaia’s pussy region the Mariana Trench?

      1. Very fishy

      2. Only makes sense. It is a deep trench that emits noxious gases and horrible things live in its unfathomable depths.

        And off the southern end of it is Austrailia.

        1. I think we can all agree that her Grand Tetons are really her more attractive feature anyway.

          1. [thinks uncomfortably about Florida]

      3. You all just crack me up!

  13. Krugabe knows what’s up.

    Let’s be clear: Installing Donald Trump in the White House is an epic mistake. In the long run, its consequences may well be apocalyptic, if only because we have probably lost our last, best chance to rein in runaway climate change.

    That’s it, then. We’re doomed.

    1. I’m trying to remember how many times I’ve read that we’re “past the point of no return” over the last two decades.

      1. I have been hearing that shit since the early seventies.

      2. When I was a kid we learned things like the boy who cried wolf, sticks and stones ……..but words can never hurt me, speech is silver but silence is golden, don’t judge a book by its cover…..

        Simple ideas that today will have you called a denier, homophobe, islmaphobe, racist, misogynist…….. and people will feel triggered and sent to their safe spaces…

        My thoughts and prayers are with those who have kids.

    2. Having not a single piece of data to back up their contention and no weather events that are statistically abnormal is runaway climate change. I’m sold.

      All of these pinko parasite are shitting their pants because their gravy train is about to get derailed.

      1. You nailed it.

      2. Well, there’d this although it might not help their case…

        Record Global Cooling Over The Last Eight Months
        http://realclimatescience.com/…..ht-months/

    3. 9/11 times 1,000!

      1. 818.1818 repeating?

        or 8.1818e-4?

  14. “very likely that 2016 will be the hottest year”

    Winning – 2016

  15. DONALD TRUMP IS GONNA GRAB MOTHER NATURE’S PUSSY.

    If you want Ron, I can fly to Morocco (on Reason’s dime) and give a presentation.

  16. VANDEN HEUVEL: The people in South Carolina who run hotels, who understand — self-interest. They will be overrun by rivers and water if they don’t deal — deal with climate crisis.

    WON’T SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN TO THOSE STUPID REDNECK HOTEL OWNERS THAT THEY NEED TO PAY MORE TAXES TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING!!!

    1. The local collective of hippie retards also wants to build high speed mass transit from surrounding towns to Charleston. Through swamps. And existing neighborhoods.

      1. Swampy trains will save us!

  17. Wait. Is this the temperature after the trend-changing adjustments or before? I’m confused.

  18. What about the billions of years before this year? Is the science settled about those years, too?

    1. Those don’t count. There were no humans to tax.

    2. I believe core samples in ancient ice can elucidate carbon levels in environment.

  19. I believe that, almost no matter how radically the climate changes (or not) many species will survive and adapt. New ecosystems and food chains will develop to replace those that have been lost. We call it evolution. But hey, I’m just a dumb girl.

    1. If progressives wanted your opinion, they’d give it to you.

  20. Agree with everyone else above, but not only that, even the way of graphing the temperatures artificially makes it look worse than it really is. “Global temperature anomaly from pre-industrial times”???? WTF. So what, in pre-industrial times, avg global temperature was constant within 1 deg C? For ALL of pre-industrial times? Who decided what times make up “pre-industrial times”? This is nonsense. It is just so much playing with numbers.

    Ron, you are smarter and more honest than that.

    1. “Ron, you are smarter and more honest than that.”

      Cite?

  21. Also, what would the graph look like if we could include data from the 100 years prior to 1880? It looks a bit like it right around 1910 was a minimum. It is almost as if climate could behave in a cyclical pattern………

  22. Ron:

    Does that graph include satellite and ground data? Wouldn’t it be problematic to combine those two data sets into one line, seeing as how there were no satellites in 1880?

  23. I don’t follow music as closely as some so it may be that 2016 is already the hottest year for instrumental records, but I’d like to hear more on the subject and more of the albums themselves before deciding.

  24. You know they’re super serious when they pre-emptively say it’s the hottest year on record. You know, just like they did last year. And the year before that. Because, you see, every year has the potential to be the hottest! Thus, we can continue to simultaneously claim that 1998 was the hottest year on record but it was also last year too!

    I see zero problems with that.

  25. Ron, why is the data in this plot so different than the usual Huntsville data 1998 to present?

  26. Maybe I don’t know what baseline means, but the period from 1960-1990 on the graph is already 0.2+ above “pre-industrial” time. Why choose that as the baseline, instead of the actual “pre-industrial” time your comparing everything to? That is confusing, just to be confusing.

    Also, the chart shows 1998 as measuring just above 0.8, with multiple years after measuring well above 0.8. Yet they keep saying 1998 is the hottest year recorded.

    How did the other years register so much higher temperatures on this chart and not be the hottest year recorded?

    I guess I am not smart enough to understand the nuance of these claims.

    1. You’re seeing the same thing I am.

      1998 was supposed to be the hottest prior to this year, and by a good margin, but that’s not the way the data is in this chart.

      I remember there was some paper that rejiggered the data so that *poof*, the “pause” ceased to exist. I think Ron eve had an article about it. And that it had been subsequently debunked.

      This chart is clearly inconsistent with the Huntsville data Ron has been showing monthly.
      http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
      http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/clima…..102016.png

      Ron, please explain.

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.