Gary Johnson's Final Poll Numbers: 4.8% and Rising

Libertarian is up at least 3x up on his 2012 results in every state, exceeding the Clinton-Trump spread in one-quarter of the country, beating Jill Stein everywhere, and ahead of ballot-access thresholds in 24 of 29 states.

Reason

As you head to polls today and/or watch the electoral drama unfold, here is a final snapshot of where presidential candidate Gary Johnson stands on the morning of the Libertarian Party's best-ever showing in a national election.

As of 10 pm ET last night, the poll averages of both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics had Johnson at 4.8 percent of the vote, tantalizingly close to the mythical 5 percent level that would trigger federal classification as a "minor party," thus making the L.P. eligible for an estimated $10 million in public matching funds in 2020. (Whether the party would accept that money is another story.) That 4.8 percent mark also represents a final-week increase for Johnson after a two-month slide—up from an RCP low of 4.1 percent on Nov. 3, and a 538 nadir of 4.4 percent on Nov. 5. FiveThirtyEight now predicts him to finish at 4.8 percent.

As Brian Doherty detailed last week, the 5 percent goal doesn't actually affect the party's all-consuming fight to gain ballot access around the country; those determinations are made on a state-by-state basis. So to illustrate both the stakes of today's vote, and the Libertarian Party's position on its eve, I have compiled and ranked Johnson's polling numbers in all 50 states (while also listing those of the competition) after the jump below. All current polling for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson is culled from FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus averages; all numbers for Green Party nominee Jill Stein are gleaned from RealClearPolitics (because 538 doesn't count 'em), and with the exception of Utah, the figures for independent conservative Evan McMullin are compiled by yours truly. Important caveat: Wherever states haven't polled much (and these include such Johnson-friendly locales as North Dakota and Wyoming) his numbers are almost certainly higher than what the results will be, because of the aforementioned poll-slide.

Some key points before you browse the list:

* Johnson is polling at least three times higher than his 2012 vote totals in every state.

* His polling percentage exceeds the gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 13 states.

* In 32 states plus the District of Columbia, FiveThirtyEight estimates that the odds of the front-runner winning are greater than 90 percent. The presidential race is still not close for most voters.

* Johnson is outpolling Jill Stein in every state (though five states haven't featured Stein in the polls). This is consistent with his 2012 record of beating the Green everywhere except Michigan (where he wasn't on the ballot), and Washington, D.C. In fact, Johnson is polling at least twice as high as Stein in every state except New York (3.8%-3.4%), California (4.2%-3.0%), Oregon (5.0%-3.7%), Vermont (5.2%-5.0%), Rhode Island (4.8%-4.5%), West Virginia (5.0%-4.0%), South Carolina (3.6%-2.3%), Connecticut (5.0%-3.5%), and Arkansas (4.9%-2.5%). The latter six states have barely featured Stein in the polls, however, so her numbers in those are clearly overstated.

* Johnson is crushing Evan McMullin in every state that does not have a double-digit Mormon population. The one Johnson-McMullin swing state, if you will, is Idaho, where the only two polls featuring both showed a 10%-5% lead for the independent.

* Of the 29 states that have vote thresholds for future L.P. ballot access, Johnson is polling higher than that threshold in 24, and more than twice as high in 17. The biggest nail-biters will be the 5 percent states: North Dakota (where he's polling at 7.6%, though the surveys have been scant), Nebraska (6.8), Minnesota (6.1), Arizona (5.4), Washington (5.1), Rhode Island (4.8), Texas (4.7), Tennessee (4.2), and Louisiana (3.3).

Without further preamble, here's a list of 50 states plus Washington, D.C., ranked by Gary Johnson's pre-election poll numbers as of 10 pm ET last night:

1) New Mexico 13.9% (HC 45.3%, DT 39.9%, JS 2.3%, EM n/p)

538 odds of winning the state: Clinton 82.1%

LP ballot-access threshold: 0.5%

Johnson's 2012 vote: 3.55%

2) Alaska 10.2% (DT 47.9%, HC 40.3%, JS 4.0%)

538 odds: Trump 79.0%

Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%

Johnson 2012: 2.46%

3) Montana 9.3% (DT 52.3%, HC 36.8%, JS 1.0%)

538 odds: Trump 96.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 2.93%

4) Wyoming 7.7% (DT 63.1%, HC 27.2, JS n/p)

538 odds: Trump 99.2%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 2.14%

5) South Dakota 7.7% (DT 53.7%, HC 37.0%)

538 odds: Trump 95.3%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.59%

6) North Dakota 7.6% (DT 56.5%, HC 34.3%)

538 odds: Trump 97.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.62%

7) Kansas 7.5% (DT 52.1%, HC 38.6%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Trump 97.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.76%

8) Colorado 7.4% (HC 47.6%, DT 43.8%, JS 3.1%, EM 1.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 76.3%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.38%

9) Indiana 7.1% (DT 52.2%, HC 40.7%)

538 odds: Trump 97.6%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.91%

10) New Hampshire 6.9% (HC 47.6%, DT 44.3%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 69.2%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.16%

11) Nebraska 6.8% (DT 55.3%, HC 36.2%, JS 1.0%)

538 odds: Trump 98.7%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.40%

12) Idaho 6.8% (DT 56.3%, HC 35.0%, EM 10%, JS 2.7%)

538 odds: Trump 99.5%

Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.45%

13) Oklahoma 6.8% (DT 60.0%, HC 33.2%)

538 odds: Trump 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.5%

Johnson 2012: n/a

14) Maine 6.2% (HC 49.7, DT 42.7%, JS 2.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 82.2%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.31%

15) Minnesota 6.1% (HC 49.4%, DT 43.3%, JS 1.8%, EM 1.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 85.6%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.20%

16) Michigan 5.8% (HC 48.5%, DT 44.3%, JS 2.3%)

538 odds: Clinton 78.7%

Ballot-access threshold: 0.5%

Johnson 2012: 0.16% (as a write-in)

17) Massachusetts 5.8% (HC 57.9%, DT 34.7%, JS 2.3%)

538 odds: 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.98%

18) Hawaii 5.7% (HC 58.5%, DT 33.7%, JS n/p)

538 odds: 99.3%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.88%

19) Nevada 5.6% (HC 47.2%, DT 46.0%)

538 odds: 58.6%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.08%

20) Utah 5.5% (DT 37.9%, EM 27.9%, HC 26.5%, JS 1.8%)

538 odds: Trump 84.8%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.24%

21) Arizona 5.4% (DT 48.1, HC 45.1%, JS 1.8%)

538 odds: Trump 70.7%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.40%

22) Iowa 5.4% (DT 48.0%, HC 45.3, JS 2.0%, EM n/p)

538 odds: Trump 69.7%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.82%

23) Missouri 5.3% (DT 51.8%, HC 41.4%, JS 1.5%)

538 odds: Trump 97.0%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.56%

24) Vermont 5.2% (HC 59.9%, DT 33.1%, JS 5.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 98.4%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.17%

25) Washington 5.1% (HC 53.1%, DT 40.4%, JS 1.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 97.8%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.35%

26) Ohio 5.1% (DT 47.7%, HC 46.0%, JS 2.3%)

538 odds: Trump 63.3%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.89%

27) Oregon 5.0% (HC 51.6%, DT 42.1%, JS 3.7%)

538 odds: Clinton 94.5%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.35%

28) Delaware 5.0% (HC 52.0%, DT 40.6%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 90.2%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.94%

29) West Virginia 5.0% (DT 60.0%, HC 33.3%, JS 4.0%)

538 odds: Trump 99.8%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.94%

30) Connecticut 5.0% (HC 52.7%, DT 40.7%, JS 3.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 96.8%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.81%

31) Arkansas 4.9% (DT 56.6%, HC 36.8%, JS 2.5%, EM n/p)

538 odds: Trump 99.6%

Ballot-access threshold: 3.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.52%

32) Rhode Island 4.8% (HC 54.2%, DT 39.4%, JS 4.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 93.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.98%

33) Georgia 4.7% (DT 49.9%, HC 45.4%)

538 odds: Trump 81.8%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.16%

34) Texas 4.7% (DT 51.5%, HC 42.2%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Trump 95.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.11%

35) Wisconsin 4.6% (HC 49.7%, DT 44.4%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 83.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.67%

36) Virginia 4.4% (HC 49.9%, DT 44.5%, EM 1.7%, JS 1.2%)

538 odds: Clinton 85.1%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.81%

37) Illinois 4.3% (HC 53.7%, DT 40.7%, JS 1.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 98.4%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.07%

38) California 4.2% (HC 58.4%, DT 35.8%, JS 3.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 1.10%

39) Kentucky 4.2% (DT 56.4%, HC 37.6%, JS 1.5%, EM 1.0%)

538 odds: Trump 99.6%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.95%

40) Tennessee 4.2% (DT 53.7%, HC 40.3%, JS 1.0%)

538 odds: Trump 98.1%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.76%

41) Pennsylvania 4.1% (HC 49.1%, DT 45.6%, JS 1.5%)

538 odds: Clinton 75.8%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.87%

42) Maryland 4.0% (HC 60.4%, DT 33.9%, JS 2.0%)

538 odds: Clinton 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 1.0%

Johnson 2012: 1.12%

43) North Carolina 4.0% (HC 48.2%, DT 47.8%)

538 odds: Clinton 58.8%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.99%

44) New York 3.8% (HC 57.2%, DT 37.3%, JS 3.4%)

538 odds: Clinton 99.8%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.67%

45) Alabama 3.8% (DT 57.8%, HC 36.7, JS n/p)

538 odds: Trump 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.59%

46) South Carolina 3.6% (DT 51.2%, HC 43.8%, JS 2.3%, EM n/p)

538 odds: Trump 90.1%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.83%

47) Louisiana 3.3% (DT 55.4%, HC 39.6%, JS 1.5%, EM n/p)

538 odds: Trump 99.5%

Ballot-access threshold: 5.0%

Johnson 2012: 0.91%

48) New Jersey 3.0% (HC 53.6%, DT 41.9%, JS 2.3%)

538 odds: Clinton 97.2%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.58%

49) Florida 3.0% (HC 48.1%, DT 47.7%, JS 1.0%)

538 odds: 54.0% Clinton

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.53%

50) Mississippi 2.6% (DT 54.5%, HC 41.4%, JS 0.0%)

538 odds: Trump 95.7%

Ballot-access threshold: n/a

Johnson 2012: 0.52%

51) District of Columbia 1.5% (HC 84.0%, DT 11.6%, JS n/p)

538 odds: Clinton 99.9%

Ballot-access threshold: 2.5% (estimated)

Johnson 2012: 0.71%

Comments

[invisible furry hand]

DC in last place. Colour me shocked.

[The Fusionist]

Ah, the Commonwealth spelling of "color."

[The Fusionist]

Doesn't all the blood rush to your head from standing upside down all the time?

[The Fusionist]

Come back, I was just messing with you.

[invisible furry hand]

I'll call off the drop bears

[AlicePreston]

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://www.Trends88.com

[CE]

What about all the cosmotarians there? I thought they liked Johnson.

[BruceMajors]

I do.

[BruceMajors]

Two local candidates got 6% and 5% though, 16,000 and 13,000 votes, for Martin Moulton for Delegate and Matthew Klokel for City Council.

It's not a huge improvement over 2012/14. Moulton got over 12,000 votes for Shadow Congressman (a fake office DC creates to pretend it is a state) in 2014. I got 17,000 running for Delegate in 2012.

Running anyone willing to do a bit of work in D.C. against Norton or another incumbent where there is only a Green or an unexciting Republican as a challenger seems like it will always get the DC LP over 7500.

DC voter registration includes 17% who register "No Party," which locks them out of all primaries in exchange for Essenic purity, and 7% who register Republican (including a lot of moderate, liberal, libertarian, and gay Republicans).

Since we regained ballot status anyone can get on the April 2018 Libertarian primary ballot by collecting 1% of the signatures of registered Libertarians (which would currently be 10 Libertarian signatures as around 1000 are registered). By then it might take more like 20 or 30 signatures at the rate we were registering people.

The primary will then determine who is the candidate for mayor, Delegate, city council, attorney general etc for the general election.

There will be at least 10 offices for which we will need candidates including City council reps for Ward 3 (Chevy Chase, American University Park), Ward 1 (Mount Pleasant, Columbia Heights), Ward 5 (Brookland) and Ward 6 (Capitol Hill).

[robc]

Two things I am interestedin tonight.

1. Can Johnson get to 2% in KY.
2. Can Clinton break Obama's 37.78% in KY.

For a state with large democratic registration leads, the D prez candidates are trending woefully down.

[The Fusionist]

Two things I'm interested in tonight:

1. How many Jalape?o peppers will I be able to eat before I have to take a drink of water?

2. Will I able to get a moustace even half as cool as the lead singer in this video has?

The thing is, that even with the above, I'll still be making better choices than millions of my fellow citizens.

[gaoxiaen]

1. Not as many as me.
2. Probably not. Mine is cooler than Stossel`s, but not as cool as his.

[PurityDiluting]

Massie 2020!

[Bob Meyer]

Massie is articulate, likeable and very pro-liberty with a strong connection to reality since he's an engineer.

[jonnysage]

Still a loser. Let's hope LP picks someone better next time.

[mr burns]

Johnson is an ignorant lefty liberal , he certainly ain't no libertarian and neither is his trust fund boob of a running mate who squandered his time in the public eye pimping for HIllary . That the libertarian party put these two forward as it's candidates is truly disheartening . Neither one was capable of making any sort of case for freedom , they didnt even try .

[Tonio]

One presumes that the LP had no idea that Weld would start stumping for another party's candidate. Johnson's performance has been disappointing.

[gaoxiaen]

He should have picked Jesse Ventura. Name recognition and outrageousness, because he tells the truth, which is truly outrageous to the sheeple.

[NoVaNick]

Yes! I think with Jesse he would get at least 10%. Weld was a sad attempt to get protest votes from squishy liberal/moderate repubs, who probably would have voted for Hillary anyway.

[SparktheRevolt]

That would have lost my vote. Maybe some Libertarians are more prone to vote for conspitard candidates, but that's an instant turnoff for me.

[CE]

The ballot access gains will be worth it. No one was listening anyway.

[SparktheRevolt]

Yeah I hope we grab another Wayne Allyn Root-esque candidate. So goooood

[JFree]

Yeah nothing screams failure like lapping all previous LP candidates. Like it or not, the growth of the LP will never depend on the candidate at the top of the ticket. It will depend on the efforts of individuals to self-organize locally. Not just because that's how political parties build a bench. But because the ability to self-organize demonstrates the capability to self-govern and perceived lack of that latter capability is the weakness of big-L libertarians that ends up easily fearmongered by the big two.

[BruceMajors]

This is partly true.

[Trigger Hippie]

I bought some 4.7% ABV Newcastle Brown Ale in anticipation of GayJay comming up just short.

Because the actual winner of POTUS simply isn't a hard enough nutpunch.

[The Fusionist]

Johnson's poll is rising

[Rich]

Hey! Don't fuck with Johnson!

[Vapourwear]

*Snort*

[gaoxiaen]

I disagree. Please fuck with my Johnson. Homos need not apply.

[BruceMajors]

Pic or it isn't real.

[Bob Meyer]

Of course it's rising. He's always been a standup guy pointing the way to an earthshaking climax.

[The Fusionist]

Google has a "get out the vote" animation where one guy abandons his dog to rush to the polls. The dog trots faithfully after him, of course.

And I bet the dog is a registered [name of party omitted].

[The Fusionist]

And another unfortunate guy has such a compulsion to vote that he misses the random TV program he was watching.

[gaoxiaen]

Carnivorian Party.

[BruceMajors]

Well, the bitch lost.

[Tonio]

District of Columbia - Ballot-access threshold: 2.5% (estimated)

WTF? I assume it's not a straight number but some arcane formula. Anyone know what that is?

[Bob Meyer]

It's based on the ideal amount of income left after taxes.

[Eric L]

Yes, and it is not some arcane formula. It is 7,500 votes for any district-wide candidate, so the vote total for the LP's candidate for delegate to the House could also get the LP ballot access.

[BruceMajors]

It's a flat 7500 votes. And any candidate counts. We had two local LP candidates who got 16,000 votes and 13,000 votes (Martin Moulton for Delegate against Eleanor Holmes Norton, and Matthew Klokel for city council) so we regained ballot status.

By the way we got in a private email debate with reason's Brian Doherty and ballot access maven Richard Winger last week over how to interpret the DC ballot access code. It has one or two dozen numbered paragraphs and they are inconsistent. Section (d) lists the candidates whose results win ballot status and President isn't listed, just Delegate etc. Then section (h) restates the list but does include President. Neither section lists the "Shadow" Senator and "Shadow" Congressman offices D.C. itself created (which the LP got 12,000 votes for in 2014, but it didn't count so we temporarily lost ballot status).

[Glide]

I gave him my vote, but I sure didn't feel happy about it. I probably would have rejected Johnson if the Republicans were running a Republican.

[IWasADemocrat]

I voted for Weld.
Gary is a dud.

[Careless]

I was going to be boggled by that, then I read your name. Well of course a Democrat would favor Weld.

[TapDancingXenomorph]

Same here -- Paul, Cruz and Rubio would definitely get my vote. A couple others would have made for a harder decision.

[robc]

Johnson/Rand/the one non incumbent for soil commision.

Fed and state house both unopposed so I didnt vote.

[gaoxiaen]

Sorry. Ron Paul retired. One can only put up with so much shit.

[DJF]

This is not a real poll, where is Kang and Kodos?

[Bob Meyer]

They gave up politics to make alien porn videos.

[gaoxiaen]

They didn`t receive 5%.

[TapDancingXenomorph]

Just voted in Dirty Jersey (but our tomatoes are great!) Johnson so the LP gets 5%, then Republican all the way down, including Tom MacArthur for House (I almost went with Lawrence Berling (Constitution), but I guess I had to have one panicked choice).

I don't feel good about it -- and I'll probably be pissed off tonight. Not that it would have mattered in NJ, but the fucknutarian wasn't exactly a proud vote. I pray we have a good L or R in 2020, because I really don't want to go through this again.

[robc]

I want to change my I voted sticker to I vetod.

[geo1113]

I like that.

[Radioactive]

I gave blood...an actual useful activity...

[gaoxiaen]

My sticker says IDGAF.

[NoVaNick]

I vomited would be more fitting.

[cre11325]

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[Wasabi Headrush]

Just voted in MA. In my district, apart from the presidential election, there were no non-democrats running for any office on the entire ballot. My little black oval next to Johnson / Weld looked quite lonely.

At least I got to vote to legalize pot, FWIW.

[geo1113]

Wasabi, hope you are sitting down. I am in Mass and have a ballot with a Republican running unopposed.

[robc]

Mine was the same way only with Rs.

I did have a "competitive" Senate race, in that the Ds actually had someone on the ballot to challenge Paul. I think he ran hoping Paul would be the Presidential candidate and he would have a chance with an open seat.

[gaoxiaen]

Just don`t snort hat stuff.

[CE]

I voted for Gary Johnson. In California we have "top two" primaries, so he was the only Libertarian labeled candidate on the ballot. We had like 17 ballot measures to vote on, some of them on the same issue as other ballot measures.

I voted at 8 AM, one hour after the polls opened and was the 47th voter in my precinct -- no line at all. Most people vote early these days I guess, or turnout is going to be low.

[Chip the Chipper]

I voted Johnson for Prez, Rubio for Senate.

Then I voted to not retain any judge or justice.

[Radioactive]

so after all the Reason drum beating Gary Johnson still a distant 3rd...so no impact at all, even inside baseball...

[gaoxiaen]

Lick my taint. NTTAWWT. In fact it`s pleasurable.

[CE]

Imagine, Reason is unable to move the needle nationwide. You'd think they would be up there with Fox and MSNBC.

[Griff Tannen]

Well, it's tough to penetrate the nation when you're working with a flaccid Johnson.

[Bob Meyer]

Washington state doesn't really have a Republican party, at least not in the western half of the state. Mostly, the "Republicans" are Democrats who couldn't cut in the Democrat party so they put an "R" after their name. King County dominates the elections by itself not just because of the population but because the votes are so one-sided for Democrats. I voted for Johnson and against two judges whose statements made it clear that they were heavily progressive in their judicial philosophies. As usual, there were a half dozen propositions that needed to be shot down.

[Jackand Ace]

Your comparison of Johnson to how Jill Stein does is interesting. Given that the Libertarian Party has about a 30 year head start on Greens, that there are twice as many registered Libertarians than Greens, Libertarians benefit from from Koch money, and as you yourself have stated here, Matt, 20% of Americans self identify as libertarian, Johnson better do much better than Stein.

[CE]

Don't you remember Ralph Nader? He crushed the LP candidate back in the day. But he scared actual progressive voters into thinking that they had handed the keys to the White House to George W. Bush. So now they fall in line and support neocons like Hillary Clinton, just in case.

[DesigNate]

Hillary cares about the environment!!!!1!1!

/progtards everywhere

[BruceMajors]

The Kochs have not given any money to any Libertarian candidate since about 1983. You are a typical ignorant leotard critic of the LP.

I have mailed solicitation letters to both David and Charles Koch for the past three election cycles for local D.C. candidates. Occasionally on other, lesser multi-millionaire from somewhere outside D.C. will send a check that is often more money than all the funds I rise from D.C. donors. None of those large outside donors has any connection to the Kochs.

[BruceMajors]

"leftard"

[BruceMajors]

Another factual error you are making is that the Green Party is new. It isn't. It's just the Citizens' Party of Barry Commoner, which existed in 1979, with a new name. It also simply subsumed a bunch of local socialist lite parties that already had ballot status, like the D.C. Statehood Party, which changed their names (for awhile it was called the Statehood Green Party in DC), to obtain ballot status.

[NoVaNick]

Voted early for Johnson in VA and for the GOP candidate Charles Hernick for congress, who does not have a chance against incumbent D Don Beyer but seems like a good guy. Not like my vote counts much anyway.
Had I waited until today, I'm not sure I would have even voted.
Curiously, my wife went to vote around 8 am this morning and said there was no line at all in our very blue precinct. So either most everyone voted early or they just ain't feeling it for Hillary.

[mad.casual]

With 7 of the top 10 'Johnson States' voting for Trump, all that spoiling pandering to disaffected HRC supporters must've worked.

[BLowry]

The problem with "polls" is that no one has asked myself, my friends, or my family (and as I learned this past weekend anyone that they have spoken with). 4.8%? I'll bet donuts to dollars that it will reach 5%. I agree with you (and Nick) that the odds of the Johnson/Weld ticket winning the election is less than us having an expedition to Mars however the stronger the showing (5%+) cracks open the door for 2018 and 2020. If people would have just done that in 2012 then this 2016 landscape would be quite different.

It has to start sometime and REASONable people need to ignite that spark to get it going now. It's no doubt that for 2016 the two major parties choices are horrible. We know that so it is why I do not call my Libertarian vote a "wasted" vote because it can help start what we need in the next mid-term and general election (as long as the world still spins) 🙂

[CE]

The problem with ignoring the polls and referring to your circle of acquaintances is that most people you spend time with tend to think somewhat like you do. In 2008 I was sure Ron Paul was going to make a good showing in the California Republican primary. He was the only candidate with any visible support, raised a lot of money in the state, and had enthusiastic rallies. He got 4 percent.

[CE]

Most voters have erroneously bought into (or been programmed into believing) the lie that they must participate in choosing between the two major party candidates for president. The Constitution set up the presidential election as a contest for multiple candidates, and anticipated regional preferences, leading multi-candidate races to be settled in the House of Representatives in per-state-delegation voting.

Why shouldn't New Mexico voters vote for Gary Johnson? They know from experience that he would be a better president than Trump or Clinton.

Why shouldn't Utah voters vote for Evan McMullin? They detest Trump and they sure aren't Democrats.

Casting your vote to "help decide who wins" is pointless. In most states the decision is pre-ordained, and even in the close states, one vote won't matter. Cast your vote for the candidate you prefer, so your preference is accurately recorded and your vote isn't wasted.

[DesigNate]

Just voted for Johnson here in TX. I'm not under any illusions that my vote really matters all that much, but every little bit helps if you're trying to reach that first wrung on the ladder right?

I was actually pleasantly surprised how many down ticket libertarians there were.

[Glide]

Good to hear about the down ballot libertarians. They were in short supply here in Ohio.

[BLowry]

Just watched Matt and Gary live on FB... polls just released now say 5%. But people know how I feel in polls so maybe higher. Glad to see some correction in that. And with the 21st century American political spectrum goes the LP should take their $10M for the next election cycle (which is 2018 and then there has to be another 5% showing for 2020).

[CE]

7.6 percent in the IBD/TIPP tracking poll.

IBD Poll

[Guy Montag]

When Johnson FAILS to garner 5%, and does so by a significant margin, the Libertarian Party will get it's due for disgracing itself with the 2016 ticket.

The absurdity and offensiveness of the Johnson/Weld ticket continues to escape the editors at Reason.

[BLowry]

You could always go back to reading "Rolling Stone".... no one forced you to read Reason.

[Guy Montag]

Your Village called.

[Alive Free Happy]

http://results-app.lovesjohnson.com/

[RobertHarris]

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[Old Monkey]

Question isn't about Gary Johnson, it's about whether you want Hillary to be president.

[Cindy Gobrecht]

https://goo.gl/yksgJI

[Chumby]

Paging John Wilkes Booth. John Wilkes Booth, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

[SparktheRevolt]

Anyone see that garbage post from Smug piece of shit, Austen Petersin? Hopefully he crawls back under his bridge and doesn't come near the LP in 2020.

[lnn83791]

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[lnn83791]

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[ammythomas035]

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[ammythomas035]

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[BruceMajors]

Though D.C. is last in Gary vote (he got 1% in 2012 so his 1.5% was one of the least improved), D.C. regains permanent ballot status (i.e. two year ballot status), the right to register as a Libertarian (1,000 people have since 2013 when the Board of Elections got around to printing new registration forms), and will be holding its second Libertarian primary in 2018 (the first was in 2014).

We had two candidates get 6% (16,000) of the vote (Matin Moulton running for Delegate to Congress against Eleanor Holmes Norton) and 5% (13,000) (Matthew Klokel in a multi-party race for City Council At Large). In DC any candidate getting at least 7500 vote in any partisan race gains or retains ballot status.

If you would like to run in the 2018 primary, you need only collect 1% of the signatures of registered Libertarian voters, which would currently be only 10 signatures. Of course by then it might be 20 or 30, at the rate people were registering as Libertarians.

[ammythomas37]

until I looked at the paycheck saying $4730 , I did not believe that...my... brother woz like actualy bringing in money part time from there computar. . there friend brother started doing this for less than 7 months and resently paid for the morgage on there home and bought a new Cadillac .......

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[ammythomas37]

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[ammythomas37]

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[ammythomas964]

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[ammythomas964]

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[ammythomas49]

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