Evan McMullin

Utah Poll Shocker: Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 28%, Johnson…5% (UPDATED)

Independent conservative surges far ahead of the Libertarian and tantalizingly close to the lead.

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They're pumped in Provo. ||| Evan McMullin campaign
Evan McMullin campaign

Evan McMullin, as reported in this space, had two great poll results last week in his home state of Utah—22 percent and 20 percent, respectively, while Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, whose campaign is also headquartered in the Beehive State, was at 14 percent and 9 percent. The weekend brought a third good local poll result for the previously obscure former CIA agent and Goldman Sachs investment banker, from CBS/YouGov, which had him tied with Hillary Clinton for second place at 20 percent; far behind Donald Trump's 37, though ahead of Johnson's 7.

Then this morning saw the release of a new poll taken over the weekend by PPP Rasmussen Reports, as reported by Heat Street:* (See correction below.)

DT 30% EM 29% HC 28% GJ 5% JS 1% UN 4% OT 2% (Oct. 15-16)

(JS = Jill Stein, UN = undecided, OT = other)

That is a remarkable surge for McMullin, and collapse for the guy he baits as not being a "real libertarian."

Even before digesting this latest poll, FiveThirtyEight had McMullin's chances of winning Utah almost even with Hillary Clinton's: 1.9 percent compared to 2.0 (Johnson was at 0.3). The site's pre-PPP projected vote share was Trump 41.2 percent, Clinton 27.2, McMullin 19.6, Johnson 9.8. (For reasons explained in this post, I think Nate Silver et al are overestimating Trump's support, though less so now that they're factoring in the #NeverTrumper.) UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight has updated; McMullin has now lapped Clinton in chances of winning, 5.2 percent to 3.2 percent (with Johnson down to 0.2); meanwhile, the overall picture is now Trump 38.9, Clinton 27.2, McMullin 22.6, and Johnson 9.1.

McMullin's competitiveness in Utah should give extra impetus to pollsters to include his name on presidential surveys, particularly in battleground states like Utah and Colorado, plus nearby states (such as Idaho and New Mexico) with heavy concentration of Mormon voters. As of right now, the only other of his 11 states in which he has appeared on polls is Virginia, where he has averaged two percent.

Below, watch Reason TV's recent video about why voters in reliably Republican Utah are running away from Donald Trump:

* CORRECTION: A previous version of this post made the very stupid error of attributing this poll to PPP instead of Rasmussen, and then further extrapolating an apples-to-apples comparison to a prior PPP poll. (Thanks to Torchiest for the catch.) Rasmussen had not previously polled Utah, so all four recent polls under discussion have no prior survey to compare to. Deep apologies for the error.

NEXT: Constitutional Originalists Against Trump

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  1. Is this good news, somehow?

    Anyone read the issues on his web site? He wants more military spending and more foreign involvement for the USA.

    1. He wants more military spending and more foreign involvement for the USA.

      Finally! I’ve had it with all these isolationists running for president!

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    2. Mormons want to vote for a Mormon neocon, film at eleven.

      1. He sounds like the typical SoCon/Neocon mix as most Republicans. He talks about smaller government, and about sentencing reform, but if you actually read through all of that, it’s full of slightly obscured cronyism.

        I wouldn’t vote for this guy, either, so I’m still sitting it out.

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      2. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has met a Mormon.

    3. Well, he’s definitely not going to win the election.

      I sort of see anyone beating the D/R duopoly as sort of good news. Or interesting, at least. II suppose a neo-con hawk guy or a commie like Bernie Sanders isn’t so encouraging.

    4. First, he goes on a mission.
      Then, he works for the CIA.

      I kinda think his missionary zeal of meddlesome meddling was baked in the cake.

    5. Yes.

      Because more weirdness.

    6. Former CIA

  2. Bill Kristol just got a stiffie.

    1. So Bill Kristol says to his doctor, “I’m concerned ED might be setting in.”

      His doctor replies, “I see. Five minutes before engaging in sexual activity, watch the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan. You’ll be fine.”

  3. My working theory is that they might be misreading his name as Egg McMuffin.

    1. All. Day. Now.

    2. I baited “Rick from LA” Wilson with the Egg McMuffin line.

      He made a big deal out of 1,000 St. George attendees, giving 3 standing ovations to Mr. McMuffin.

      St. George is pleasant but it is Mormon. Rick the NeoCon seems to be densely packed.

  4. How is GJ doing in New Mexico?

    1. Wait, there’s a new Mexico now?

      1. Damn foreigners trying to influence our elections!

  5. If Trump loses UT I’ll eat my hat.

    1. I’d pay to see you eat your hat.

    2. I’d pay to see you eat your hat.

  6. McMullin wins Utah, so the House can pick him as president when Clinton gets stuck @269.

      1. If nobody wins a majority of the Electoral College, McMullin just has to finish in the top three electoral vote getters. So, yes, they can. It’s one vote per state. Republicans hold a huge advantage in congressional state delegations. And the Republican Party hates Trump.

        1. I think it’s more likely that we end up with a President Kaine in such a scenario. The GOP delegation is too fractious to agree on either R candidate by Inauguration Day, and there’s no way for Hillary to get a majority of state delegations.

          1. No, in such a scenario the Senate picks from the top 2 VP candidates for VP. So the VP would be Kaine or Pence but there’s no way for either of them to become president without the House pick for president dying.

          2. That is not an option.

        2. IIRC, if the House can’t pick a Prez by Inauguration Day, the next person in the line of succession gets it, i.e., the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

          1. VP is second in line, Speaker is 3rd. So if the Senate picks a VP and the House fails to pick a Pres, the VP will be the acting Pres.

            1. Biden’s term expires with Obama’s. If there’s a tie, and the House cannot agree on a president, it’s Paul Ryan.

        3. Do you honestly believe it will be that close?

          If it does come down to ClinTrump both failing to get 270 than there is an excellent chance that
          we will have our first Mormon, CIA president.

          A truly fitting end to a disgusting election.

          And, yes, McMullin will win Utah.

    1. But at what cost? Do we really want someone named Evan McMullin in the whitehouse making decisions and stuff?

    2. The house would elect Hillary. All they will need is one term of that good ol cronyism, then it won’t matter if they lose their job, they’ll be set for life. They couldn’t get Jeb, Hillary is the next best thing.

      1. The House votes by delegation – each state delegation having one vote – and IIRC the Republicans have a majority of the votes are calculated that way.

        1. *if* the votes are calculated

          1. So Kalifornia only gets one vote? They have a large number of representatives. It would be cool to watch them brawl on C-span.

            1. It would be cool to hear the shrieks of lamentation by the Left as to how “undemocratic” voting by delegation is.

            2. And Wyoming gets one vote.

              The schadenfreude of James Madison is AWESOME

              1. Who’s your Little Jemmy now?!

                1. Madison was against equal voting by states in the Senate, but given the choice to have a senate, the Rube Goldberg setup of Presidential elections makes some sense.

                  In practice, since IIRC 48 of the states have a winner-take all system of electoral votes, the Electoral College is tilted toward the large states – giving their voters more influence in Presidential elections than voters in small states. That is, a voter in California wields more infuence than a voter in Wyoming when it comes to affecting the EC vote.

                  And the EC system generally generates a winner – if it doesn’t, then it’s only fair to have a backup system where the small states come into their own.

    3. Thats a nice fantasy for both Johnson and McMullin but Hillary is already projected to win over 300 EC votes. So winning a single state is a moot point.
      If Hillary loses the general election I’ll eat my hat.

    4. McMuffin has to win BLUE states in that scenario, Bubba. Right now, he’s cannibalizing Trump’s votes.

    1. Some clown selling breakfast sandwiches all day now.

      1. CLOWN?!?!?!?

        AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

        *runs away screaming*

      2. But the clown won’t sell you coffee with your breakfast sandwich. Hot chocolate or Postum.

  7. GayJay is so disliked he’s losing to a Mormon/CFR plot.

    1. GasyJasy is troble!

    2. This is a hell of a case of cognitive dissonance you’ve got. Trump is so disliked he’s losing to a Mormon/CFR plot. Mitt Romney beat Obama with 72% of the vote. McCain with 62% of the vote in 2008. So yeah, Trump is disliked, moron.

  8. He might actually pull more electoral votes in UT than popular votes in the rest of the country.

    1. Why not? Since Hillary is going to win the election anyway, it really doesn’t matter who gets 6 electoral votes.

      So Utah voters could easily say – “who cares”, and vote for the Egg McMuffin.

  9. I think Nate Silver et al are overestimating Trump’s support,

    That’s a funny one.

    1. Yeah, that does not compute.

  10. Maybe because McMullin knows the proper role of wimmenz?

  11. mormon? where are his 10 kids?

    1. His mother is gay. Maybe she ate them.

  12. Utah. Population: 3,000,000 largely homogeneous souls. An outlier in many ways.

    It’s an interesting anecdote, but I don’t see the significance.

    1. Because there’s a real chance that a republican stronghold will go to a 3rd party candidate.

  13. The Utah Poll Shocker would be a pretty awesome stripper name.

    1. Only if her ‘do is a Beehive.

  14. That Ed McMuffin guy touched me inappropriately back in 1995.

    1. Interesting that you didn’t mention anything about lack of consent on your part.

      1. He was not unresponsive.

        1. It was only inappropriate because they were on the jumbotron at Sesame Street On Ice.

    2. Impossible. He was on his mission back in 1995.

      Unless he smacked you with a Livro de M?rmon.

  15. Here is where it gets really interesting.

    Lets say he wins Utah and somehow neither Trump nor Clinton get 270.

    McMullin is more likely to win in the House than I though Johnson had a change at if it was him.

    Obviously the bound EC voters are going to vote for their candidate, but not everyone is bound. Would a dozen Clinton voters try to eliminate McMullin by voting for, say, Joe Biden, hoping he would win over Trump in the House?

    Or even a left wing GOPer? Could Olympia Snowe be are next president?

    And if a wiff of this got out, would some Trump supports try to push someone else into 3rd?

    I am hoping for chaos at the real vote in December and excitement when congress opens the votes in January.

    1. s/are/our/where appropriate.

    2. Was this JEB!’s plan all along?

      1. Trump wins Florida and they all vote for Jeb instead?

        Hmmm….talk about 17th dimensional chess.

        Does someone owe Shriek money if that happens?

    3. “Would a dozen Clinton voters try to eliminate McMullin by voting for, say, Joe Biden, hoping he would win over Trump in the House?”

      Not sure how this would change the dynamic. The House may vote for whomever it chooses, regardless. Why would a Republican House take its cue from 12 faithless Democratic electors?

      1. They can only choose from the top three finishers in the Electoral College.

    4. Speculating is fun, but the reality is that Clinton will easily get to 270 regardless of what happens in Utah.

      1. Unless the polls are dramatically overrating her numbers.

        1. Yeah, seems unlikely at this point. 538 numbers have really drifted.

        2. I don’t think they’re overrating the number, but the enthusiasm of her voters. I suspect a low turnout on that front.

          1. Both parties are trying, at the same time, to prove my point from 2004 that you cant win an election by running a “anybody but that guy” campaign.

            Either one of them will successfully pull it off or something dramatically hilarious is gonna happen.

            1. I’ve been saying the same thing since 2004 (and it’s part of why Romney lost in 2012), but I guess you can win on such a campaign when the other guy is also doing it.

              1. I was telling Ds in 2004 that Kerry couldnt win if all anybody cared about was “Anybody but Bush”. You dont show up to vote against someone.

    5. If Utah was a blue state, I’d say you had a point. But McMuffin is just eating into the Witless Ape’s electoral college total.

      I see a more likely scenario of Utah voters saying – we can vote for the breakfast sandwich because Hillary was gonna win anyway.

  16. I am hoping for chaos at the real vote in December and excitement when congress opens the votes in January

    NEEDZ MOAR BLUD IN TEH ROOOOOAAADZ!

    1. If this scenario happens, I may have to go to DC to toss the golden apple onto the House floor from the viewing balcony. Is that a felony?

      1. toss the golden apple onto the House floor from the viewing balcony

        The euphemisms….

      2. You mis-spelled “mini-nuke”.

        1. The greeks were limited in their technology.

      3. No one needs 23 varieties of assault fruit.

      4. Kallisti – the golden apple of discord?

        1. Hail Eris! All hail Discordia! x 23

  17. It seems that Johnson’s “pragmatic” strategy of telling traditional religious people to screw themselves is working!

    For McMullin, that is.

    1. Yep. I hate to admit it, but McMuffin is right about O’Johnson.

    2. Watch Gary at Liberty Univ today. 12,000 people, mainly students. He was asked about abortion and
      let them know he was pro-choice. Good for him but they let him know that it was not the answer they
      wanted to hear.

      Same for religious liberty. They let him know that he wasn’t getting their vote.

      At the end they asked to pray for him.

      He laughed and evaded the question.

      Again, he let them know that they could shove it.

      A true Libertarian and also someone who let’s evangelical voters know that what you see is what
      your get.

      Maybe those morons will vote for McMullin.

  18. PPP is a Dem poll, and they have very incentive to get out the McMullin vote in Utah, so I take their numbers with a grain of salt.

    I think there are lessons here for the LP, however.

    First, this gives lie to the notion you need a name candidate to achieve relevance.

    Second, a strategy of honing in on states with like-minded voters makes a lot of sense, and really should have been considered in this cycle. This campaign put a lot of eggs in the “let Gary Debate” basket, and none of them hatched.

    Third, when you don’t have a message, your support is paper thin. Gary chose to lead with the cake issue, and his position resonated with no persuadable voter. His inability to answer basic foreign policy questions hurt him further. Message discipline is a thing, and there is no reason not to expect a presidential candidate to possess the skill.

    I get that the real goal was to hit 5% nationally and get access to funding (and get hard working folks within the party paid next cycle). But that isn’t a goal that matters to voters.

    Overall, this cycle comprises a blown opportunity for the party, one I hope it will learn from (and yes, I’m voting for it anyway).

    1. I dunno. I think if they had actually written “Egg McMuffin” on the poll, it would be more popular than any of the fuckwits actually running. I would vote for an actual breakfast sandwich over Trump or Hillary.

    2. Gary has screwed up pretty good too many times. Just the weight of the Libertarian ticket on paper and the unpopularity should have him polling at about 10%.
      Gary spent too much time being likable and too little being passionate. The two times he blew up once with Guy Benson and once when asked about gaffes were good but not sufficient. He sounded too much like a burned out hippy with a give peace a chance message. He really didn’t say much besides merely asserting foreign interventions were bad m’kay.

      1. He might actually be a burned-out hippy going through the motions of running for office.

    3. The LP party will not accept federal funding.

      That means that we cannot accept personal donations which we will not accept.

      The DemReps don’t take federal money for the same reason though they are receiving hundreds of millions in personal donations unlike our measly six million total.

      1. The whole point of the Nixon law within 24 hrs of the LP becoming a thing was to turn us into looter whores like the rest of the parties! Taking the shilling may be the way to repeal it, or abdicate and prove it right. The law itself creates different levels of danegeld progressive proportional to the number of parasites. Here it is… http://tinyurl.com/ptmqk4b

  19. I’d love to see McMullin win Utah. I wouldn’t care to vote for him, but anyone winning a state that isn’t a R or a D at this point would be an improvement. (Even though he is just an eGOP stooge.)

    1. I want to see the race thrown into the House. Just on general principle as that is how things were supposed to work most of the time.

      1. I’d like to see that too. It’d be interesting to see if there was enough discipline in the House to elect one of these two shitbags, or if a tie would be arranged to keep them both out.

        1. It would be a 3 way vote, so there would be some intrigue regardless.

          1. True.

            This election cries out for a “None of the Above.”

          2. Not really. Republicans control 2/3 (?) of state delegations in the house.

          3. a 3 way

            Now you are talking my language.

        2. I just can’t believe that Veep turned out to be a documentary.

        3. This would be cool, if there were and actual opposition party in Congress. Because then there could be fist fights. But Republican are pussies. I can’t see McConnell actually fighting. Someone might try to punch him, miss and hit one of his chins only to have his chin loop around and hit the person striking him ala Three Stooges.

      2. While I don’t think it will happen, there was some chatter about Bernie winning as a write-in in Vermont. It would be funny if we had a patchwork of non-binary results this year.

        1. If Hillary didnt have 270 otherwise, would the VT electors switch to Bernie?

          1. You over-estimate the tendency of people to pay attention to the electoral college.

            1. Not people, the other electors.

              1. Vermont is one of the few states that forbid faithless electors by law. So if the people write-in Bernie as the state’s choice they’d be criminal to ignore it. And the chatter was about disaffected voters writing-in rather than faithless electors.

                1. It may make them criminals in the state of Vermont, but would their votes in the EC still be valid?

    2. I too would be soaked in schadenfreude were the God of the Soft Machine to be de jure tossed out of a single State.

  20. So no one had any idea what’s happening in Utah?

    1. They’re going full LaRouche.

      1. As good a hypothesis as any I’ve seen lately.

    2. Mormons voting for a mormon.

      They are probably all part of his vitamin MLM scheme.

  21. This election cries out for a “None of the Above.”

    The Founders were remarkable in their foresight, but the failure to incorporate a “Do-Over” option is really beginning to bug me.

    1. Maine has a ballot initiative to allow instant run-offs, which would be awesome.

    2. That option is in the Declaration of Independence.

  22. I hope Utah isn’t just doing a bunch of virtue signaling on a State wide scale. It would be entertaining to see a thrid party take Utah.

    1. Nah, many Mormons have grown to hate Trump as he keeps showing his personality.

      1. I will order extra popcorn.

  23. I wouldn’t find McMullin so distasteful if his candidacy has any kind of purpose besides self-aggrandizement and a Mormon identity politics option.
    If you wanted a beltway neocon, Hillary is already in the race.
    If you wanted a non-Trump hardcore conservative option you have Darrel Castle.
    If you want to be part of building a brand and party of an existing and underrepresented ideology you have Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.
    It just seems like total hubris.

    1. But there’d be McLovin…er I mean McMullin T-shirts.

  24. This guy is the no kidding Neocon private candidate. If reason doesn’t think he isn’t in some way better than Hillary, why the positive language about him being “tantalizingly close”? If reason does think he is better, th n they need to issue a retraction for the 15 years of bashing neocons as the worth thing ever.

    1. They find the idea of the two major parties being embarrassed by such a result more interesting than what the candidate who accomplishes that stands for.

    2. He’s horrible.

      But no worse than Hillary.

    3. Nothing like the whining of nationalsocialist women-bulliers! I love it! Howcum these worthies never mention godless Canada, where the women make these choices uncoerced by impotent mystics?

  25. Wow. Who would have guessed.

  26. Johnson should ask his supporters in Utah to vote for McMullin, as a good second-best.

    If we could just send this thing to the House…

    1. Bad idea. The Mormons caved on rights in order to be admitted to Statehood. There is nothing wrong with plural marriage, but letting impotent male mystics bully women is not where we need to go.

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  29. this reminds me of the famous saying….

    as utah goes, so goes utah.

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  37. The nationalsocialist is a life-begins-at-erection antichoice girl-bullier! The only difference is that in Utah women have as much self-respect as they did in Germany in 1892, BEFORE Utah capitulated on plural marriage and was admitted as a State. More… http://tinyurl.com/zvcexmq
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