Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson Needs to Average 25% in His Next Two Polls to Qualify for the Debates

ABC/Washington Post poll comes in at 9%, leaving the Libertarian far short of 15% before Judgment Day

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After more than a month of silence, the ABC News/Washington Post national presidential poll, which is one of the five selected by the Republican/Democrat-controlled Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) to determine eligibility for this fall's televised gabfests, came out with a new survey this morning that puts another nail in the coffin of Gary Johnson's debate hopes.

The Libertarian nominee set a new high in the poll, at 9 percent (Hillary Clinton was at 46 percent, Donald Trump at 41, and Jill Stein at 2), but that only brings his five-poll average to 9.0 percent, with less than a week to go before the CPD's deadline of "mid September." With only two of the other polls (CBS News and NBC/Wall Street Journal) due for a new survey between now and then, that means Johnson would have to average 25 percent in each to achieve a five-poll average of 15.0 percent. He has yet to produce a national number higher than 13 percent. It's no wonder that the Johnson/Bill Weld ticket signaled a new debate strategy yesterday in New York: Drum up outrage at their non-inclusion by hosting live answer sessions outside of each debate this fall.

Other interesting tidbits in this morning's poll:

* Johnson is competitive with Trump among voters under the age of 40, pulling 17 percent compared to the Republican's 24 (Clinton dominates with 47 percent; Stein lags at 8). This is consistent with the Libertarian's campaign-long trend of doing disproportionately well with the youngest blocs of voters.

* Third-party backers are "far more apt than either Clinton or Trump supporters to say they might change their minds by Election Day. Just 15 percent of Clinton and Trump supporters say they could change their minds, vs. 55 percent of Johnson's and Stein's." This would suggest that the typical third-party fade, which unusually did not befall Johnson and Stein over the summer, could yet take place should the Clinton-Trump race tighten.

* The poll was conducted between Sept. 5-8, meaning that only the last day could have possibly been impacted by Johnson blanking on the name Aleppo during a Morning Joe interview Thursday morning. While I have my strong doubts that the incident will negatively impact Johnson's poll results, we just don't have enough evidence in yet. Morning Consult is the only other poll to sample during the period (Sept. 6-8), and there Johnson set a new four-candidate high this week of 10 percent, though he had finished as high as 12 percent in that survey before Jill Stein's name was added. (UPDATE: The latest Breitbart/Gravis poll, which questioned voters Sept. 7-8, was published this afternoon, and showed Johnson at 7 percent, up from 4 percent Aug. 22-23, though down from his high of 9 percent Aug. 9 [Gravis has had more extreme swings for Johnson than any other poll].) Though he's certainly putting a brave face on things, vice presidential nominee William Weld told me yesterday that "not only has our fundraising increased in the two days since Aleppo morning, but the amount of attention and name-recognition that Gary has garnered is just through the roof!"

Johnson this past week also hit a new poll-high for NBC/Survey Monkey (12 percent), and tied his highs with Rasmussen Reports (9 percent) and Reuters/Ipsos (8 percent), while backsliding in the crucial Big-Five survey by CNN/ORC (7 percent). His campaign also made headlines by polling north of 15 percent in a whopping 15 states. Expect to see those states targeted more and more by both the campaign and its supporting SuperPACs, as the focus inevitably turns toward moving the needle locally and even trying to pick off a state or two.

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  1. You have any idea the slippery slope you’re proposing for the CPD? You let Johnson into the clubhouse next thing you know Lyndon LaRouche’s ghost is onstage for every debate from now until President Hillary declares dictators’ rules.

  2. Does this mean Ann Margaret’s not coming?

  3. OT: Air turbulence is increasing. You’ll never guess why.

    http://iopscience.iop.org/arti…..1/2/024008

    1. You’ll never guess why.

      Hey, I guessed it on the first try! What do I win?

    2. 9/11?

    3. Not standing for the national anthem?

    4. That burrito I had for lunch?

    5. If it’s a democratic socialist scientist the answer is the Plutocracy, meaning bozone layer or glowball warming, and if it’s your basic conservative creation scientist the answer will be Demonic Possession because of hemp from Hell or failure to properly Christianize the subject races. None of the basics have changed since 1914.

  4. Looks like Hillary’s spot might come open soon.

    1. I know we’re all hoping that she’ll drop dead from a brain tumor, but I wouldn’t count on it.

      -jcr

      1. Not me. I’d sooner watch her gang stomping the bloody snot out of God’s Own Prohibitionists than see another Bush-clone moron causing a financial crash and asset-forfeiture depression.

  5. yea does not look good. The debate head said there would be a margin of error fudge factor which is usually 3% and Weld did say the commission was telling them that swing states would be weighted heavier. 14% in Ohio plus 3% margin of error is 17% in the Godfather of swing states.

  6. Gary isn’t going to be in the debates, and he never had a shot at it. The entire purpose of the “commission on presidential debates” is to make damned sure that no Ruling Party douchenozzle ever has to face an actual challenger again. Perot scared the shit out of them.

    -jcr

  7. “meaning that only the last day could have possibly been impacted by Johnson blanking on the name Aleppo during a Morning Joe interview Thursday morning.”
    Yeah. There’s really no such thing as bad publicity for Johnson at this point. He got more press, and internet attention over this issue than anything that’s happened so far in the campaign. My guess is most people responded, What’s an Aleppo, and Who’s this Johnson fellow?

  8. Is Reason so desperate that they’re citing Breitbart polls, geez.

  9. For a Libertarian candidate to reach 15% would have taken many more millions of ad dollars than the libertarian movement is capable of raising. Or the candidate would have to be someone with instant name recognition – perhaps a star like Clint Eastwood. But then the usual dozen or so pure Libertarians on this site would find
    enough faults with an Eastwood to heartily stalk off saying they were voting none of the above or staying home.

    1. Or the candidate would have to be someone with instant name recognition

      This was one of the best reasons to go with McAfee. Only the most die-hard AppleFags wouldn’t instantly recognize the name “McAfee”

      1. I say they try to nominate one of the Kochs. Even conservatives who would disagree with him would jump at the chance to vote for the great Satan of progressivism.

      2. This was one of the best reasons to go with McAfee.

        McAfee is the only person who could challenge Hillary for number of skeletons in the closet.

      3. There are lots of whiny crybaby prima-donnas who expect to pay dues and immediately be nominated for the top spot. Some of them are doubtless famous. But that’s not what we advertised for. We want a nice guy out there for the christianofascists and union goons to attack and crucify soooo unjustly that even the most apathetic of couch potatoes will find motivation to go out and vote for out hundreds, maybe thousands of candidates for other offices. So go ahead! Call him names from behind your little domino masque. Be shrill, nasty and offensive, and make my day…

      4. He was the perfect candidate for this cycle.

    2. >> For a Libertarian candidate to reach 15% would have taken many more millions of ad dollars

      They won’t reach 15% without giving up on open borders and ceasing to waste their time trying to attract progressives.

      1. Actually, the LP vote slice has a positive slope, kinda like the death rate for Herbert Hoover prohibitionists and Nixon’s Moral Majority. We can stand pat while national socialists die off and our share of the vote increases. After the commie empire collapsed in 1991, support for looter progressivism has come only from revulsion at the policies of violent looter conservatives.
        There is an equation for these market share that Prof. Beckmann published back when he was on the Reason Editorial Board. As soon as I find it I’ll run a projection and fade some bets. Howzat?

        1. > support for looter progressivism has come only from revulsion at the policies of violent looter conservatives

          I disagree with this part, mainly because most conservative voters are equally sickened by the Republican Party’s embrace of expensive foreign adventures and Democrat-style looting.

          I think you need to accept that today’s conservatives (minus the dwindling evangelicals and neo-con hawks) are not that different from libertarians, except for the desire to enforce existing immigration law.

    3. I’ve seen more TV ads for Johnson, than any other candidate this cycle. Especially during the Sunday morning talk shows. And I’m sure they did cost far more than the movement is capable of raising. So where is the money really coming from?

      As for LP purity, I’d rank Eastwood above Johnson. Johnson is worse for the LP than Bob Barr.

  10. It would be interesting if the polls asked the following question.

    “If a third party candidate were polling in a near tie with the other candidates, would you switch your vote to the third party candidate?”

    1. I am sure that question has been asked in polls at some point. But, the barrier to a third-party is so high in this country that most people don’t give it much thought. And, neither ideology wants to go decades without a president in order to experiment like that. It’s a “you go first” thought process. Plus, both major parties have tricks that make it nearly impossible.

      Whether one likes Trump or not, his phenomenon is the next best thing. A lot of third-party voters are supporting him, because they want to force the establishment Republicans to change without sacrificing the White House for ~30 years. Scott Shackford, no lover of Trump, covered this back in March (link below).

      https://reason.com/blog/2016/03…..-a-con-man

  11. You know how in the movies or on TV there is always a “tell” if the character is dreaming? Like in Inception, the top kept spinning. Or maybe the colors are unusually vibrant. Or maybe the mean girl says something nice. Whatever.

    This is your tell that we are living in a dream sequence. Trump polling over 5% is a dead giveaway (roughly 5% of the polled electorate will be functionally retarded. This is simple statistics). Hillary polling over 38% is a dead giveaway. That’s the percent of yellow dog democrats. Nobody else would ever vote for her. Not after all we’ve learned over the last few years. I’ve met Slick Willie. He was a friend of mine. And she’s no Slick Willie.

    So prepare to wake up in bed with Suzanne Pleshette. Well sort of. I mean, she died in 2008. But you know what I mean.

    1. So prepare to wake up in bed with Suzanne Pleshette. Well sort of. I mean, she died in 2008.

      *vomits on keyboard*

    2. Test results from the Solomon Asch experiment proved absolutely that 3/4 among those able to get into college do lie just to go along with the crowd. So prophesying with stilted poll questions will tell us less than voting libertarian. That experiment also proved that a lone dissenter was enough to improve objectivity of choice by a solid 15%. So when I vote libertarian I am certain that I am changing bad laws 6 to 36 times as effectively, and that when others see my vote recorded in history they will lose 15% of the cowardice that keeps them from passing independent judgment.

  12. Johnson not going to make debates. Water is wet, news at 11.

    1. The former First Lady might not make the debate either–except in a Steven Hawking wheelchair. Then NARAL will have to choose between a 14th Amendment that begins with “All ova fertilized…” and letting the dreaded libertarian answer questions about Harpo, Zeppo and Aleppo.

  13. I always thought it was a dumb idea for GJ to focus so much on the debates-he kind of set himself up there. Aleppo might have actually done more to help him than sharing a national stage with blowhard and compulsive liar.

    1. Well if you don’t like the party platform that nominated Gary or the Parteitag rally that wants former Democrat Donald for fuehrer, you can always vote for the former Goldwater Republican Hillary or the Green or Communist parties, or mebbe the ku-klux Tea party.

      1. Donald for fuehrer
        Goldwater Republican Hillary
        Green or Communist parties
        ku-klux Tea party

        Jesus. So everyone but the LP’s current 7% are loathsome bottom feeders? Best of luck with that platform. Maybe you can have your party’s convention in a conference room at a Howard Johnson’s in Fresno. The cardboard “continental breakfast” pastries might attract a handful of the Democrats’ homeless people, so you’re on your way to the big time.

  14. Johnson blew it by trying to attract progressives, from his kind words about Black Lives Matter to his abrasive correction of peoples’ speech with words like “undocumented.” The Libertarian party has a far better chance of attracting conservatives, provided it gives up on the dead end policy of open borders.

    But the LP will not get progressives without abandoning all small government policies and pretty much denouncing libertarianism. Even then, the progs will ask why they should vote for a fake Democrat when they can have a real one. The very word “libertarian'” sends progs into paroxysms of fury. A few young millennialist might find it hip to vote for Johnson, but the older ones are starting to catch on that they’re on the hook for the costs of government benefits for millions of illegals.

    1. Another illiterate Creation Scientist who has NOT read the LP platform.

      1. Another half-wit who assumes all conservatives are evangelicals. I am agnostic. Furthermore, please do show me where I mentioned religion even once.

        As for my supposed failure to read the LP platform, I understand that the very basis of libertarian thought is the non-aggression principle – the idea that one person should not harm or place burdens on another. Well, the open borders policy does exactly that, and its adherents even acknowledge that the “net positive” economic benefit of open borders is at or less than 1% growth. That doesn’t make up for all the big government democrats that will be elected, nor does it make up for all the government programs and first responder usage.

        1. The 2016 LP platform says: “However, we support control over the entry into our country of foreign nationals who pose a credible threat to security, health or property.”
          I do look forward to buying a beer for the first non-evangelical conservative I meet. I personally infiltrated YAF back in 1980, when their newsletter put it in black and white that anyone not willing to force women to reproduce against their will were NOT conservatives, but libertarian. So here I am.

          1. >>The 2016 LP platform says: “However, we support control over the entry into our country of foreign nationals who pose a credible threat to security, health or property.”

            The “credible threat…” part leaves way too much room for doing nothing about the current situation. I seriously doubt Johnson would count the burden illegals place on public services as a credible threat. It’s a burden, but safety (crime) is only a small part of the problem.

            >>anyone not willing to force women to reproduce against their will were NOT conservatives, but libertarian.

            Then I guess I’m a libertarian by that definition, as I am agnostic and lean left on social issues and right on economic ones. But, I part ways with the LP on open borders. Evidently, a growing number of people around the world agree with me (link below).

            http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-p…..px?id=6930

            Eventually, the LP will have to give up on open borders or they’ll stay in the single digits. Progressives will never become reliable libertarian voters. And evangelicals’ numbers are shrinking and will continue to do so.

  15. It’s too bad all the polls are skewed anyway. Everyone knows that. CNN has completely left out an entire demographic this entire election year. Apparently they think no one under 35 will vote.

    1. It’s the people under 35 that cops can safely shoot in the back in exchange for pay raises and paid vacations (good faith+probable cause=dead hippies and blacks). Once kids understand that a libertarian spoiler vote is worth anywhere from 6 to 36 Kleptocracy ballots in terms of law-changing power, they’ll come around and Hollywood can produce a remake of “Wild In The Streets”

      1. >>kids understand that a libertarian spoiler vote is worth anywhere from 6 to 36 Kleptocracy ballots in terms of law-changing power

        [Laugh] You assume these kids will not come to realize that they’re expected to foot the bill for your profligacy. There is a reason the older ones are not as interested in a spoiler vote as the younger ones. I suppose the younger millennials are the “illiterate” ones if I follow your puerile logic.

        http://zogbyanalytics.com/news…..illennials

        1. It’s simplifying a fraction. 1.4% of the vote made the 18th Amendment ban beer to please conservatives. 1.4% is to half the vote (plus a couple of extra ballots) as 1 is to 36. They teach proportional algebra, fractions and percentages in junior high–even in conservative schools. All of this stuff is spelled out with pictures and arrows at Oiltranslator or Libertariantranslator, with comments enabled for anyone who can find an error in my ‘rithmetic. So far nobody has, but who knows? Mebbe yew could be the fustest with the mostest.

          1. >> 1.4% of the vote made the 18th Amendment ban beer to please conservatives.

            And I think most of today’s conservatives have learned their lesson after nearly a century of well-deserved negative attention toward prohibition.

            >> Mebbe yew could be the fustest with the mostest.

            Grow up. I have a master’s degree and six professional certifications in IT security, project management, IT audit, and risk management. No telling where you’re finding these anachronistic conservatives, but rest assured I am nothing like them.

  16. Well considering most polls are probably done by bias media groups I won’t hold my breath if you don’t mind. If the media besides Reason would give fair cover to 3rd party candidates I suspect that Trump and Hillary would be a lot lower in the polls.

  17. With the Dem geezer being carted about on a stretcher between bumps of stimulant, there is a good chance the Libertarian will be the only PRO CHOICE candidate with a chance against God’s Own Prohibitionists. All Gary has to do is say he doesn’t want men with guns to shoot youngsters over hemp, nor arrest Planned Parenthood doctors. When asked about Aleppo, he need only smile and say “I liked all of those old Marx Brothers movies, but that does not make me a marxist.”
    It would be a treat to watch squirming Dems have to choose between letting the loudmouth prohibitionist geezer have the bully pulpit and voting for the only pro-choice candidate young and healthy enough to ride a bicycle.

    1. Hmmm. Abortion? Vanishingly small numbers of big-bad-cop-shot-innocent-kid-in-the-back incidents?

      Yeah, call me crazy (or “illiterate” as you did before), but I don’t see those issues getting people up off their couches to drive somewhere and vote.

      Good luck with that.

      1. I’m accustomed to “we don’t see” as Supreme Court cause for prison time for handing out copies of the 13th Amendment, the Dred Scott ruling, and the challenge to conscription under the 13th Amendment. So it brings to mind the saying that “None are so blind…”
        But Google “police violence” and you’ll have no trouble finding footage of cops in Utah, Cleveland, Carolina, Illinois and a dozen other cities murdering kids by shooting them in the back because they “in good faith” suspected the killer weed or sumtin’.

        1. >> But Google “police violence” and you’ll have no trouble finding footage of cops in Utah, Cleveland, Carolina, Illinois and a dozen other cities murdering kids by shooting them in the back because they “in good faith” suspected the killer weed or sumtin’.

          What are the statistics? Googling anecdotal evidence doesn’t make a strong case. And, most of the sweeping statements I’ve heard ignore statistics like whether Blacks resist arrest at a higher rate (NY study linked below).

          https://project.wnyc.org/resisting-race/

          I’m with you on how marijuana should not be cause for arrest or incarceration. Most cops are just doing their jobs. Not their fault it’s still the law. I’m quite sure the majority of them would love to eliminate weed arrests from their responsibilities.

  18. go to http://www.skewthepolls.com and spread the word quickly. too soon for Google to pick it up so type it into your browser. Let the man be heard.

  19. If Donald holds true to his word, there won’t be a debate.
    Santa Monica Observer headline: Donald Trump Will Not Debate Hillary, if Gary Johnson not Allowed to Participate
    http://bit.ly/2cR63D7

  20. Gary Johnson’s support is coming from principled voters who detest both candidates, and their size is a testament of how awful Clintrump is.

    Beyond that, he’s still a middling third party candidate. The LP’s policy simply does not have much traction or among the larger electorate. Everyone loves free stuff, even conservatives. Polls continue to show that the population with most growth (immigrants, especially Asians) support larger government that does things for people. And spending and social issues are not mutually exclusive. If you oppose ACA, you’re racist. Charter schools pick and choose students, so that’s racist. So on.

    Johnson supporters would point out that he stands for a number of things that are gaining favor among the American people (drug legalization, non intervention). But voters are emotionally invested in a larger single issues or their larger ideologies. He turned turncoat on freedom of association, and that was a total turnoff for the commenting section. Libs position on Johnson is eternally “it’s a good thing Johnson is a liberal BUT…..”

    1. >>Libs position on Johnson is eternally “it’s a good thing Johnson is a liberal BUT…..”

      Exactly. The fact that he thinks he’s going to get liberals/progressives in any significant numbers is sad. They hate libertarians, no matter how many times he calls someone a racist or licks the spittle of Black Lives Matter.

  21. The headline buys into the utterly corrupt CPD assertion that something other than being on everyone’s ballot is a defensible criterion .

  22. Millennials need to talk to Mom & Dad, and grandparents, too. Ask them to tell polling companies they’re voting for Johnson, even if they aren’t. They’ll do it for you. Voters need to be informed.
    In California, if two state-level candidates self-destruct, get really ill, or kill each other, there is no third option (or only in the last case, a special election); at least voters for president have more options, even if they don’t know it.
    One gets the sense that the old media are still oblivious to the real story. Journalism is alive and well online; it’s no wonder newspapers and TV news are losing customers. Eventually, the Market will solve this problem.

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