Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

Wisconsin at an overall 16 percent especially strong for the Libertarian ticket.


A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.

Reason magazine

Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

  • Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
  • Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
  • Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
  • Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
  • Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
  • Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
  • Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.

Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

Among the five Rustbelt States, Johnson is outperforming Trump with minorities (12-11) and millennials (28-21).

Matt Welch has gotten granular on overall national Johnson poll results here, here, and here. Welch supplied me with some of his latest findings this morning regarding Johnson and polling, including Johnson almost always polling above 15 percent with independents, and in one Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll the Libertarian ticket getting nearly a quarter (24 percent) of millennials.

Thanks to Reason's Patrick McMahon for finding and assembling some of the more interesting data points from the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll today.