Donald Trump

Donald Trump Is A Blowhard Idiot: Especially on Immigrants

Republican presidential hopeful tells it like it isn't on Mexican immigrants and crime.

|

Trump
Fox

As all the world knows, reality-TV billionaire Donald Trump has been fired from NBC and various other TV networks have cancelled his beauty pageants over his claims that undocumented Mexican immigrants are disproportionally criminals and rapists. He made the claim when launching his presidential campaign:

When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're not sending you. They're not sending you. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

As it happens, back in 2014 I looked into research analyzing immigration and crime rates. Among other things, I reported:

In fact, most research, such as a 2008 report by University of California sociologist Ruben Rumbaut for the Police Foundation National Conference, finds that immigrants, including undocumented ones, are less prone to crime than are native-born Americans. Rumbaut finds that the incarceration rate of American-born males between 18 and 39 years of age was five times the rate of foreign-born males, and finds similar conclusions in a survey of other studies on the topic….

In 2010, Social Science Quarterly published a study of immigrant populations in America's larger cities. It suggested that "growth in immigration may have been responsible for part of the precipitous crime drop of the 1990s."

A fascinating new study in American Law and Economics Review bolsters these data. That research asks, "What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to US Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico." The study notes that many undocumented immigrants from Mexico come from poor agricultural regions and when crops are affected by rainfall extremes, more immigrants cross our border. The author, Aaron Chalfin, an Assistant Professor in the School of Criminal Justice at the University of Cincinnati, explains:

In order to identify the effect of immigration on crime, my research leverages two empirical regularities with respect to Mexican immigration to the United States. First, migrants from a given Mexican state tend to settle in US cities that have longstanding cultural ties to that state. For example, migrants from states in eastern Mexico have tended to settle in cities in Texas and the Midwest. On the other hand, migrants from western Mexico have tended to settle in California. Second, migrants tend to be drawn disproportionately from regions of Mexico that are heavily reliant on agriculture. As a result, they are more likely to migrate to the United States in the aftermath of sufficiently extreme weather variation – in particular, extreme rainfall.

As it turns out, weather variation in different Mexican regions has implications for the magnitude of historical flows of migrants to US cities. In particular, US cities experience increases in Mexican migration when Mexican states to which they are culturally linked experience highly variable rainfall. Accordingly Mexican rainfall acts like a random assignment mechanism that assigns a different number of annual migrants to each US city.

What does he conclude?

My findings indicate that Mexican immigration is associated with no appreciable change in the rates of either violent or property crimes in U.S. cities.

Somehow I doubt that data will have any effect on Trump's nativistic claptrap.

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

97 responses to “Donald Trump Is A Blowhard Idiot: Especially on Immigrants

  1. “Donald Trump Is A Blowhard Idiot: Especially on Immigrants”

    With a bad haircut. You left that out.

    1. And orange. He and Boehner need to have a tanning party.

  2. Really, I think Trump’s campaign is very instructive. There’s considerable money to be made, personally speaking, by running for president, even if you lose. Not that everyone makes money doing that, but people like Trump and Clinton, well, they understand.

    1. Trump and Clinton

      Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

    2. Trump embodies almost every negative Republican stereotype. I could be convinced that he’s a paid plant.

      1. Seriously. Kinda-sketchy unprincipled. obnoxious billionaire who goes around making racist, xenophobic comments (in addition to generic arrogant ones). Throw in some homophobia and sexism (I don’t follow The Donald enough to know his track record on comments in those areas) and he’s basically a walking stereotype. I definitely don’t think he’s a paid plant, but his ability to hit negative Republican stereotypes is uncanny.

        1. Who takes this guy seriously? Heck, he doesn’t.

          1. I think there’s a segment of Republicans that aren’t exactly deep thinkers that like Trump for “having balls to say politically incorrect things the media doesn’t want to hear!” Not saying they’re a majority of the party, but they exist.

            1. Sure, though you’d think they’d fall in behind Paul or Cruz.

              1. PL,

                For this group, when I say “politically incorrect things the media doesn’t want to hear” I mean stuff like “really ignorant shit about Mexican immigrants and foreign trade.” Paul doesn’t particularly appeal to that crowd. Cruz does to a greater extent, but not as much as Trump does. Say what you want about Cruz, but I can’t recall him saying something this stupid or offensive about immigrants, or really any other group.

                1. Well, humanity has plenty of crazy. I don’t think that sort of thing will help Trump much, as too many people are wary of his nonsense, but who knows? This country elected a proven dishonest, corrupt, incompetent last time, and a whole political party apparently intends to nominate someone even worse, in at least two of the three categories. Maybe all three.

            2. That describes a large chunk of the conservative hoi polloi.

            3. The unfortunate thing is that that segment could be quite large. It could also force other candidates to beclown themselves in an effort to ride the populist pony cart.

              On a superficial level, it’s a quite compelling message. It rings all the bells that the other candidates either seem to want to avoid, or find too nuanced, while being “of concern” to a lot of traditionally republican voters.

              I’ve not listened to all his stuff, but please tell me he didn’t promise to ensure the trains would run on time and bleat about American Exceptionalism.

              FWIW, he doesn’t stand a chance in the primaries, but he’s going to lure a number of other candidates into a festival of “red meat” throwing.

              1. Cyto and Igor,

                I agree with both of you guys. I don’t think it’s a majority by any means, but it is a significant part of the party, and there’s even more who this sort of rhetoric would resonate with if it wasn’t so absurdly overly generalizing. It will be interesting to see to what extent other candidate react to Trump, and how they do so. I imagine he’ll try to put other candidates on the spot on some of these issues in the debates.

          2. Michael Savage sure does.

    3. “Deandra, it’s just some jerk getting into office so he can get out for the payday. I see it every year. Some clown runs for office, drops out of the race and gets a big chunk of dough. I mean, you have to be a real low-life piece of shit to get involved in politics.”

      1. That quote reminds me that Dee was Rachel Dolezal before it was cool.

        1. “Martina Martinez”

      2. Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I’m hot. What? Taxes, they’ll be lower… son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.

        1. “When Dennis Reynolds was a counselor at Camp Cumberland, he was sent home for the statutory rape of a teenage camper. A vote for Dennis Reynolds is a vote for underage rape. Dennis Reynolds, baby rapist. Don’t let him rape you, Philadelphia.”

    4. Rumbaut finds that the incarceration rate of American-born males between 18 and 39 years of age was five times the rate of foreign-born males

      I wonder if Rubbaut included the 60,000 criminal aliens who were released by the Obozo administration last year? You know… the ones that would have been in prison for rape, theft, burglary, car-jacking, murder… if they’d been American-born males…

  3. I’m beginning to suspect Donald Trump might not be president material.

    1. You gives you a few hard truths and you drop him like a bad habit, Fist?!? I’m starting to think you’re not a true Republican!

      1. You = Trump. I need sleep, that or my brain has trouble processing troll thoughts.

    2. Hoisted by his own retard.

      1. I’ve been thinking there’s another angle for that phrase, at least in some situations: “Moist by his/her own retard.”

        1. We need NutraSweet stat! Wake him from his slumber!

            1. Moist’d by his own Pig Lard

              1. He awakens!

                OH GOD RUN FOR YOUR LIVES

                1. I wasn’t serious! I didn’t even think the Yackin’ existed!

                  1. He mostly comes at night. Mostly.

                    1. There’s a 3 in the afternoon now?

                    2. Unlike Warty, who comes whenever and where ever he damned well pleases.

          1. SugarFree == Beetlejuice?

  4. When you look at the ICE database of arrests on the actual border it would then be understood what Mr. Trump is bloviating. Reminds me of the Mariel boat-lift from Cuba when the Castro’s put their less than desirable on boats and shipped them to the Florida coast since US has a dry-foot citizenship with Cuban exiles etc.

    1. Donald Trump? Is… is that you??

    2. When you look at the ICE database of arrests on the actual border it would then be understood what Mr. Trump is bloviating.

      I doubt that.

    3. Gee, imagine that, ICE arrests along the Mexican border are mostly Mexicans. How in the world does that happen?

      1. Not to mention that one of ICE’s main missions is to arrest illegal immigrants crossing the border from Mexico.

  5. I mean not to cut to fine a point aren’t all undocumented immigrants criminals, by the nature that they are here illegally? Did IQ’s drop sharply in the last couple of years or something?

    1. Although your opinion that trump is a blowhard idiot is valid.

      1. And the rapist line seemed pretty xenophobic.

        1. The whole concept of “Rape” [trigger warning: scare quotes] is kind of fluid now a days.
          Swarthy construction workers, eyeballing the pretty chicas can be construded as rape culture of the most henious kind.

    2. Pretty sure they’re talking about violent and/or property crime.

      1. I’m probably being to charitable in my interpretation of his words.

    3. No, a common misconception. AIUI, there is no crime involved in being here without having gone through the proper customs and immigration controls. Not sure what the rationale is, but it’s been that way for a long time.

      Neither crossing the border “lllegally” nor refusing to pay a bill makes you a criminal.

      1. I did not know that.

        1. TBH, I don’t “know” that either; it seems crazy, but I’ve read it often enough from presumptively knowledgeable people on these toobs that I may as well believe it.

      2. Neither crossing the border “lllegally” nor refusing to pay a bill makes you a criminal.

        Uhm, I would disagree. Crossing the border somewhere other than a designated crossing point is a violation of USC 1459 and/or 1433.

        (g) Criminal penalty
        In addition to being liable for a civil penalty under subsection (f) of this section, any individual who intentionally violates any provision of subsection (e) of this section is, upon conviction, liable for a fine of not more than $5,000, or imprisonment for not more than 1 year, or both.

        1. Well!

          Any idea how old that particular section (g) is?

          Hmmm .. crossing the border illegally isn’t the only way to get into the country illegally. What about someone who overstays their tourist visa?

    4. In addition to what everyone else said, at no point does he specify that he’s just talking about illegal immigrants. The context of his comments seems to indicate otherwise. Plus, it’s clear given the stuff about rape and drugs that he’s not just talking about immigration offenses.

    5. Being libertarians, we’re talking about real crime, not bullshit ‘crimes’ that are just ‘things illegal because the state says so’.

      Did IQ’s drop sharply in the last couple of years or something?

      Well that would explain the ramp up in retarded nativist hysteria.

    6. I mean not to cut to fine a point aren’t all undocumented immigrants criminals, by the nature that they are here illegally?

      Are you including those, say, 5 year old Mexican kids who came with their parents when they snuck across the border? Mens rea would seem to factor in here.

      1. of course those are the worst. The 5-10 year old job market has been hit harder than any other by this last economic downturn last thing that this country needs an influx of competition.

      2. Nobody wants to deport *productive* urchins, seeking to improve their monocle-polishing and chimney-sweeping skills working in the pre-k-industrial complex.

        What we need to stamp out in the lazy, unproductive ones, lounging around watching Dora The Explorer and playing with Duplo, swilling Sunny D all day.

        1. Listen if your lemonade stand can’t compete with a bunch of Mexican brats selling horchata, then it’s time to find another kid industry.

          1. Horchata sells for 5 pesos in Playa,less than $.40 & it’s way better than lemonade.

  6. Trump: Too Stupid for the Stupid Party.

  7. New Hampshire must have a lot of illegal Mexicans.

  8. I said on the Facebooks that I think it would be delicious if most of the Miss Universe contestants pulled out, leaving only North Korea, Russia, Zimbabwe, and Saudi Arabia to compete.

  9. If Trump didn’t exist, we would have to invent him.

    1. So since he exist, how do we “un-invent” him?

      1. Ignore him and he’ll go away?

  10. Does “bringing” mean directly or can it mean through descendants?

  11. I am a little ashamed that I watched quite a bit of his Apprentice at least for the first few seasons. It was a dark time in TV. CSI was new and bold and revolutionary back then.

    1. meh. I’m not ashamed that I watched the first couple of seasons — I find it entertaining to watch idiots try to out-idiot each other.

      Ever since then, whenever catching any reality show with multiple moron contestants in front of a panel of judges, I always yell “Trump ’em!” at the TV… hoping the judges will send them ALL home.

      1. Boot Camp and its celeb spin-off was the only good reality TV show ever.

        1. nah the first season of “a shot at love” (that tila tequila dating show) was amazing

  12. As a spokesperson for the International Brotherhood of Blowhards 417; this person, “the Donald” is entirely unknown to us, and has never been a member.

    At best he is a blathering moron, or a gibbering goof.

  13. “The study notes that many undocumented immigrants from Mexico come from poor agricultural regions and when crops are affected by rainfall extremes, more immigrants cross our border.”

    It’s climate change all the way down.

  14. “As all the world knows, reality-TV billionaire Donald Trump…”

    If we are to believe our friends on the left, doesn’t this mean that Trump has all the money in the world to simply buy the election?

    1. If we are to believe our friends on the left, doesn’t this mean that Trump has all the money in the world to simply buy the election?

      I thought he was only a “reality-TV Billionaire” like Vince McMahon, not a real one.

      1. I heard Beck the other day say he didn’t believe he was a billionaire but didn’t offer why he thought so.

    2. Money only buys elections when they lose. Principals, not principles.

    3. Trump hasn’t gotten where he is today by spending his *own* money.

  15. When Mexico sends its people. . .

    Personally, I think this is the worst part of the whole thing.

    Mexico isn’t *sending* anyone. These are people fleeing poverty and looking for a better life (mixed in with a not so small number of actually horrible people).

    Cuba, Mexico ain’t. Its not like these are people the state gives *permission* to emigrate to. Mexico is corrupt and poor, but its not a closed state with a captive populace.

    You would think that Trump, with all that money, would hire political advisers that will actually tell him ‘no Donald, that shit you’re planning on saying is idiotic and will sink your campaign’.

    But I don’t think he really took these campaigns seriously – they’re just publicity stunts to feed his ego and this one backfired.

    1. I don’t think it directly sends people here but it certainly benefits from the money that is sent back and has in the past encouraged people.

      1. *Mexico* doesn’t benefit from that money – people living in Mexico who receive those remittances do.

        1. I would say it has an impact on their economy. Now that is just what goes through banks and money transfer companies. I think it’s safe to say Mexico benefits more from the infusion of 23 billion dollars of cash to it’s economy than without.

    2. I think Trump realizes he has no shot with a serious campaign, and he has no other political ambitions, so I think he’s just going the “fuck it, I’ll say what I want, and I’ll appeal to enough people to remain relevant for a while, even if I can’t ultimately win” route.

      1. This.

      1. Goddammit. Left the page open for hours. Didn’t refresh. Spaghetti everywhere.

      2. Goddammit. Left the page open for hours. Didn’t refresh. Spaghetti everywhere.

  16. Some other candidate will surely one-up him, and wrestle a Mexican on stage.

  17. Good to know that water is still wet.

  18. The best thing to do with Trump is ignore him.

  19. His rhetoric is a bit overheated for sure, but the reason people respond to it is because the censorship on this issue is so overwhelming that anybody who tries to speak truth to power is going to get a tremendous amount of mileage from it.

    The truth about Mexican peasants is that while they aren’t the most violent group of immigrants you could invite in to the country, they aren’t particularly gifted at anything other than manual labor and we probably have way more than we need already. The only thing more bring us is lower wages, more crowded school, more pollution, traffic, overcrowding and a more debased, less cultured society.

    1. Re: FatDrunkAndStupid,

      The truth about Mexican peasants is that while they aren’t the most violent group of immigrants you could invite in to the country, they aren’t particularly gifted at anything other than manual labor and we probably have way more than we need already

      It’s a good thing there’s you to determine what ‘we’ need instead of the Market, which is just a little network composed by TRILLIONS of interpersonal interactions that determine prices and scarcity.

      The only thing more bring us is lower wages, more crowded school, more pollution, traffic, overcrowding and a more debased, less cultured society.

      That could also be the perfect justification for a general sterilization program: “Oh, there are too many of ‘us’ here!”

  20. Ruben Rumbaut for the Police Foundation National Conference, finds that immigrants, including undocumented ones, are less prone to crime than are native-born Americans. Rumbaut finds that the incarceration rate of American-born males between 18 and 39 years of age was five times the rate of foreign-born males

    It shouldn’t really even need to be noted that incarceration rates and crime rates aren’t the same thing.

    The go-to source for national violent crime statistics is the FBI’s annual report. And the FBI doesn’t keep track of immigration status for its violent crime reporting. Even if you wanted to try and extrapolate the violent crime rate among Mexican immigrants from the overall violent crime rate of all Hispanics (which you shouldn’t, but I’m just saying…), the FBI also doesn’t keep track Hispanic or Latino origin – only race (most Hispanics/Latinos fall into the “white” category; turns out there actually is such a thing as a “white Hispanic”). Any attempt to say what percentage of violent crime nationally is committed by immigrants would be a scientific wild ass guess.

    1. Most young male immigrants are probably the ones actually willing to work,unlike our lazy young welfare recipients.

  21. I suspect the Donald is right in this respect. Every illegal starts off under a cloud & criminals
    find it necessary to commit other crimes just to survive.Drug dealing is a natural trade.
    But a more convincing argument is that they undercut American workers & disportionaly use the welfare system.

  22. Any of those surveys of how law abiding “undocumented immigrants” are, include the fact that they commit the crime of being here illegally, each, and every day?

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.