US/NATO Combat Mission in Afghanistan Ceremonially Over, Wars Continue


In a ceremonial move NATO closed its operational command headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan today, lowering its flags to signal the end of the "combat mission." On January 1, U.S and NATO troops will transition to a "support" role for training. Meanwhile the Taliban's campaign in Afghanistan continues, with militants attacking a police station in the south.
According to the bilateral security agreement signed the day after Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as president of Afghanistan, 9,800 U.S. troops and 2,000 NATO troops will remain after the end of the year.
U.S. forces will also continue combat missions against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and associated extremists. Importantly, these troops will retain immunity from Afghan law.
The refusal of the Iraqi government in 2008 to include such a provision in the status of forces agreement prevented continued U.S. military operations in that country. Nevertheless, when the war in Iraq ended in 2011, President Obama took credit for it, continuing to do so throughout the campaign trail, disowning it only as Iraq slipped back into chaos and U.S. troops returned.
The U.S. began deploying military personnel back into Iraq on June 16, and began air operations again over Iraq on September 10, and then over Syria on September 22. U.S. operations in Yemen, meanwhile, appear to have evolved into ground raids. The president's most recent war powers report, from June, also places military personnel in Somalia, Niger, and Chad, on various counter-terrorism efforts including the rescue of more than 200 schoolgirls captured by Islamist militants in Nigeria earlier in the year. The U.S. also has fighter aircraft and Patriot missile systems deployed in Jordan since 2013.
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War's over, let the kinetic action begin!
This is the nature of war, whose stake is at once the game and the authority and the justification. Seen so, war is the truest form of divination. It is the testing of one's will and the will of another within that larger will which because it binds them is therefore forced to select. War is the ultimate game because war is at last a forcing of the unity of existence. War is god.
I predict that as soon as the West leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban will come down from the mountains, half the Afghan National Army will desert or switch sides, and we'll have another horrible civil war that will result in the vassal state being overturned, a la what happened to the Marxist government after the Soviets left.
The Talib generally avoid the ANA...they tend to fight the ANP more, as they are not as heavily armed and less well trained.
And remember, the old Soviet puppet government was roundly hated and still took some time to be knocked down.
What's the tribal divisions like in the ANA and ANP?
ANA is fairly representative, but the main units (kandaks - about a battalion) tend to be fairly homogeneous.
The cops tend to be local whatever there is in the area...with the higher up officers being a spoils/political prize.
Oh, and the provincial cops are wretched and won't get into many fights - they haven't the equipment, training or generally the morale to do so.
I'm a little skeptical that the Pashtuns won't start to rally behind the Taliban if the Afghani government continues its blatant corruption and the Taliban score a major victory (or a series of smaller ones).
They had a good taste of Taliban rule before - I know the Tajiks in the north would fight against them again, and I think the Hazara would too. The Uzbeks...probably would fight against the Talib.
Mission.....accomplished? I guess?