Global Temperature Trend Update: Fourth Warmest June In Satellite Record—Prospects for Monster El Nino Fading

Dreamstime

Every month University of Alabama in Huntsville climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer report the latest global temperature trends from satellite data. Below are the newest data updated through June 2014.

Global Temperature Report: June 2014

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade

June temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.32 C (about 0.58 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.29 C (about 0.52 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Tropics: +0.51 C (about 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Notes on data released July 1, 2014:

June 2014 might have been the fourth warmest June in the 36-year satellite record, but recent changes in the tropical Pacific might indicate the globe isn't going to set any temperature records in upcoming months, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The global average temperature for June was 0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for the month, warm enough to tie June 2013 for fourth warmest. (The warmest June was in 1998, during the "El Niño of the century." Global average temperatures in June 1998 were 0.51 C [about 0.92 degrees F] warmer than normal.)

Early indications that an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event might be forming faded in June, although the atmosphere typically takes a couple of months to catch up to what is going on in the oceans. In June, the tropical Pacific Ocean did not continue to warm. This doesn't mean a strong El Niño isn't possible, so we shall wait and see.

In general, atmospheric temperatures do not immediately reflect that ocean cooling: The tropical atmosphere saw its second warmest June on record at 0.51 C (about 0.92 F) warmer than normal, as it was still feeling the extra ocean heat from two months ago. In the tropics, the only June warmer was in 1998, at 0.53 C warmer than normal.

Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth's atmosphere in June was over the Ross Ice Shelf, where Antarctic winter temperatures were as much as 5.37 C (about 9.67 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest departure from average in June was southeast of the southern tip of South America, in the Atlantic Ocean northeast of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands. Temperatures there were as much as 2.85 C (about 5.13 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms.

Go here to see maps showing global temperature anomalies.

Comments

[Fist of Etiquette]

At this point I find this all very quaint.

[mad.casual]

It has started to seem like an update to the Farmer’s Almanac. Sorta replacing it as America’s Shipping Forecast.

[Homple]

Are cocktail parties involved?

[Stickler Meeseeks]

Related post over at the DC:
NOAA Reinstates July 1936 As The Hottest Month On Record

http://dailycaller.com/2014/06…..on-record/

Who knew?

[Auric Demonocles]

Some ancient geezers, but who listens to those 80+ year old dudes anyway? You think I trust Pro Lib when he claims how cold it was to walk to school back in his day when he had to go up-glacier both ways?

[sarcasmic]

That’s just denier propaganda put out by Big Oil and other profit seeking corporations. You can’t trust them because they seek profits.

The people you can trust are the scientists who rely on politicians for their funding because politicians are selfless servants with no personal motive at all. They only want to do what is right for everyone. They wouldn’t be using climate changes as an excuse to grab more power and influence over our lives. That’s denier talk. You can trust them because they’re not greedy businessmen.

[Lord Humungus]

not the 4th warmest! Not that!

[Francisco d'Anconia]

It’s a crooked hockey stick.

[Auric Demonocles]

Tied for fourth warmest.

[The Last American Hero]

Does that mean they do a play-in game or do only the top 2 advance to the playoffs?

[Auric Demonocles]

Apparently it’s goal differential first, and other commenters think that makes sense.

[mad.casual]

This doesn’t mean a strong El Ni?o isn’t possible, so we shall wait and see.

“I’ll know it when I see it.”

A fine example of the Computonian Law of Probability.

[Jackand Ace]

You are right…we will see. It may or may not be a huge El Nino, but it seems more and more likely that we will have an El Nino, which will most likely mean even higher temperatures than what we have seen in the first 6 months of 2014. The spring months (March, April, and May) were the hottest on record without an El Nino. And the timing of the El Nino (earlier than expected?) might mean even drier conditions in Australia and India than they already are experiencing, which will be a disaster.

[Dave C]

Explain to us how El Nino is caused by CO2.

[Jackand Ace]

Brother.
Who said that?
Why don’t you explain if you think its the case.

[mad libertarian guy]

Because SCIENCE!

[Jackand Ace]

Science told you CO2 causes El Nino’s? Where did you go to college…just want to make sure my kids don’t go there.

[Sevo]

If you have kids, we have problems.

[John]

but it seems more and more likely that we will have an El Nino,

And it seems more and more likely we will have a winter this year and January will be colder than July. El Nino’s are cyclical events like the seasons you fucking half wit. “Having a periodic El Nino” is not out of the ordinary.

The spring months (March, April, and May) were the hottest on record without an El Nino.

And half of America’s children are below average. Warm months happen.

[Jackand Ace]

You and Dave C have the same comprehension skills.

[Jackand Ace]

By the way, I read somewhere (don’t have the link) that there is an 80% chance of an El Nino (percentage keeps going up) in the later months, and a 60% chance earlier.

So who knows, we may get lucky and not have one.

[Dave C]

So what does a El Nino have to do with AGW?

[Jackand Ace]

Nothing…other than the fact that it means even warmer temperatures, which is the whole point behind AGW.

Take a look at this graph which highlights El Nino years, as well as La Nina years, when temperatures drop.

The point is the spikes of El Nino years keep going higher, and the dips of La Nina years…well, they keep going higher even though its a dip.

http://robertscribbler.files.w…..nino_s.jpg

So the point here is that although temperatures have been stable at the highest level for the past 15 years, based on what we see for the first 6 months of 2014, and what might occur with an El Nino later in the year…there goes the pause.

[Sevo]

Yeah, and if we had eggs, we could have ham and eggs if we had ham.

[NotAnotherSkippy]

It’s laughable that you critique the reading skills of others and make a statement like, “The point is the spikes of El Nino years keep going higher…”

Here’s a hint: look at the graph included in this very article. See 2010? That was an El Nino year. Does it look larger than 1998? In fact 2003-2007 are all El Nino years. Do they look higher than 1998?

“…and what might occur with an El Nino later in the year…there goes the pause.” said the trained monkey. One year doesn’t burst the pause, Jackie. Again, looking at the chart that is right before you eyes shows 2010 stuck right in the pause.

Even if warming were to resume at the rate it did in the 90’s, the CAGW models still fail decisively within a decade to 15 years at the most. And just to preempt your pedantry, they have a typo for scenario 2; it should be 0.107C/dec and not 0.0107.

[Jackand Ace]

Come on, skippy. Look at the graph. It was put together with people like you in mind. They took didn’t even leave the analysis up to you, because you know, graphs are just beyond some people. That must be you.

Do you see the trend line, skippy? One is orange, one is blue, and one is black. Let me know if this is too fast for you. Notice the trends? El Nino years up. La Nina years up. Overall up.

You see, skippy, if you started to read the graph in 1983 and only went to 1992, you would have said El Nino temperatures are going down!!!

But you see skippy, and I know this is difficult for you, the graph starts at 1950, and not 1198. I know, I know, for deniers like you, all things start in 1998, because that was a year that would allow you to say there is a pause.

Of course, anyone who can read a graph can tell you that temperatures are going up.

Try again.

[Harpua]

So this is preliminary data. Is this kind of like the GDP which always seems to get adjusted downward a month later? With the adjustment announcement released at 3 AM on a Sunday?

[buybuydandavis]

Hey, where’s the chart? That’s what I want to see.