Russia Predicts Losing Ground in Global Economy

Export-driven model causing problems


Russia's share of the world economy will probably shrink during the next 20 years as growth trails the global average, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said.

Gross domestic product will rise at an average pace of 2.5 percent through 2030, less than the 3.4 percent to 3.5 percent global rate, according to the ministry's updated forecasts. That would reduce Russia's share of world economic output to 3.4 percent by 2030 from 4 percent last year, the ministry said.

The muted outlook highlights the turnaround in fortune for the world's biggest energy exporter, whose $2 trillion economy grew at an average annual rate of 7 percent during Vladimir Putin's presidency from 2000 to 2008 before contracting 7.8 percent in 2009 after crude oil prices plunged. GDP growth decelerated every quarter since Putin won a third Kremlin term in March 2012, with senior officials including Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warning Russia's export-driven economic model neared exhaustion.