Climate Sensitivity

Impending Climate Catastrophe May Be Called Off, Suggest Leaked Copies of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's New Report


What Global Warming
191: Dreamstime

Over at the Wall Street Journal, Matt Ridley reports that a leaked draft version of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forthcoming Summary for Policy Makers finds that earlier projections of future warming have likely been too high. In his column, "Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change," Ridley reports that according to the IPCC …

…the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.

Specifically, the report notes that new estimates of climate sensitivity—roughly the eventual amount of warming that would expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles—suggests that that there is a chance that the increase global average temperatures be as little as 1 degree Celsius. More significant are the new estimates of the rate of future warming on its way to achieving equilibrium at doubled carbon dioxide:

A more immediately relevant measure of likely warming has also come down: "transient climate response" (TCR)—the actual temperature change expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide about 70 years from now, without the delayed effects that come in the next century. The new report will say that this change is "likely" to be 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius and "extremely unlikely" to be greater than 3 degrees. This again is lower than when last estimated in 2007 ("very likely" warming of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius, based on models, or 1 to 3.5 degrees, based on observational studies).

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

In addition, Ridley reports that more recent estimates of climate sensitivity from newly published peer reviewed studies are even lower than those suggested in the new IPCC report.

But, wait there's more. The Daily Mail has also gotten hold of a leaked version of the IPCC Summary and it reports that the UN climate panel admits that computer model estimates of average global temperature increases have been way too high. The Mail notes…

…the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment,  published in 2007. 

Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.

But the new report says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction.

The 31-page 'summary for policymakers' is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures  – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

This rate of warming is in line with the global average temperature increase of 0.14C per decade that the satellite data have reporting since 1979.

If the draft version of the IPCC Summary stands that would suggest that the climatologists assembled by the UN have now come to basically agree with a recent study in Nature Climate Science, which I reported last month, that the observed rate of warming has been about half of what the computer model have been projecting.

Further massaging of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers is currently under way and the final version will be released on September 27. Stay tuned.

H/T to Johnny Longtorso on Ridley even though I saw the Ridley article a couple of days ago. Forestalls unwarranted wounded feelings.

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  1. So, we’re all gonna die, but not as sweatily as we thought?

  2. So now governments are going to back off on policy geared to combat this threat that doesn’t actually exist?

    Haaaaaaaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha! Whew! That was a good one!

  3. 26 And they took the bullock which was given them, and they dressed it, and called on the name of Gaia from morning even until noon, saying, O Gaia, hear us. But there was no voice, nor any that answered. And they leaped upon the altar which was made.

    27 And it came to pass at noon, that Ronald Bailey mocked them, and said, Cry aloud: for she is a god; either she is talking, or she is pursuing, or she is in a journey, or peradventure she sleepeth, and must be awaked.

    28 And they cried aloud, and cut themselves after their manner with knives and lancets, till the blood gushed out upon them.

    29 And it came to pass, when midday was past, and they prophesied until the time of the offering of the evening sacrifice, that there was neither voice, nor any to answer, nor any that regarded.

  4. Bart: Now is the winter of our discontent.
    Ralph: Oh no! Run!

  5. “Celebrities we lost respect for:

    I can’t respect a black person silly enough to vote for Mitt Romney. I can’t respect a woman silly enough to vote for Mitt Romney. Stacey Dash is both of those. ‘Nuff said.…..n-2012/12/

    1. I know, right? These uppity bitches need to learn their place before Pimp Daddy TEAM Blue has to give them the back of his hand.

      1. What strikes me about the comment is how utterly racist and sexist it is, with zero self-awareness.

        1. Zero self-awareness seems to be a trend.

    2. Having just googled her, to find out who the hell she was, I stumbled upon her nudes. I now have plenty of respect for her.

      And by respect, I mean erections.

      1. Yeah, she’s 46. And I am totally okay with that. If anything, I want her obviously superior genetics in the name of producing a Kwisatz Haderach.

      2. I’ll be in my bunk

  6. H/T to Johnny Longtorso on Ridley even though I saw the Ridley article a couple of days ago. Forestalls unwarranted wounded feelings.

    I think Bailey just called Longtorso a bitch.

    1. I think I was the root cause because I gave some shit to Shackford, then shot Bailey’s dog.

    2. Yeah, but at least he gets hat tips.

      1. Hat tips are so 2010.

    3. Naw, I think he got a lot of pointers to the news that he had already read. So he’s telling all those people not to expect a hat tip. (I am one of them, and perfectly fine with that.)

  7. Makes me wonder what the disaster fascists have teed up to replace it.

      1. Oh yes… oh yes yes yes… oh yes… Seattle times has been doing a 27 part potboiler about ocean acidification that they’re undoubtedly going to submit for a pulitzer. Curious timing, that. The IPCC turns out to be wrong in a pause and the Times goes for broke on this series.…..-industry/

      2. ^Exactly.

        Oceans will become the focus. Acidification wiping out shellfish, warming from fossil fuels, and storm runoff to justify crippling EPA Clean Water regs.

        1. Don’t forget killing all the corals.

          1. Bleaching!

        2. And Fertilizer run off.

      1. To be more clear, earthquakes caused by fracking seems to be the new demon.

        1. Don’t forget, fracking also sets your tap water on fire, makes eerie noises, and rapes your daughters.

          1. I think that last part is just Warty.




              1. Also, the squirrels are fracking assholes.

                1. It’s 3:00 somewhere

        2. PA has about 6,600 fracked gas wells (active and inactive).

          Which is why the state is constantly in the news for having earthquakes in which thousands die every month. It’s like the Road Warrior here.

          1. I know. That’s why the beer laws are so fucked up.

          2. Guys with mowhawks riding motorcycles?

          3. You know what else PA is full of?

    1. Well, there’s always the possibility of another deep dive into the ice age. And there’s the ocean. Asteroids, though hard to see how those can be blamed on humanity.

      1. Asteroids can’t be blamed on humanity, but stopping an asteroid from hitting the earth would a damn good reason for a global government to take over the whole economy.

        1. Good, evil point. “Nations can’t be trusted to deal with these threats–look at how they can’t even get out of LEO! And they hardly bother tracking this death from the skies. No, it must be world government or nothing. Remember the dinosaurs!”

    2. I think either Peak Oil or Overpopulation are due for a come-back.

      If they are feeling creative then maybe they’ll move on to drugs in the water supply.

      1. I’ll agree with that. Since we’re right at repeating 1972 right now, I think it’s gonna be both at about the same time.

    3. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Good for rationing antibiotics and restricting travel.

  8. Oh, and back on topic for me… it’s funny how the media refers to the failed predictions of the IPCC as a “pause”. Anyone else find that funny?

    Guy: Hey Paul, in ten years California will break off and fall into the ocean!

    Paul: Myeah, no it won’t, there’s no evidence for it.

    (10 years later)

    Paul: So, looks like I was right, California hasn’t fallen into the ocean.

    Dude: No, I’m right, it just paused.

    1. “Dude: No, I’m right, it just paused.”

      And Ehrlich (King, etc) was right, he just missed the date by a bit!

      1. “And Ehrlich was right, he just missed the date by a bit!”

        Which has been said, repeatedly.

        1. Along with:
          ‘He’s right in general, he just missed some of the particulars!’
          Like every one of them.

    2. Predictions delayed are predictions falsified.

  9. Dailing Back the Alarm on Climate Change”

    Typo alert, Ron Bailey.

  10. So schadenfreude is when you enjoy watching other people suffer. What’s it called when you enjoy being proven right after over a decade of being told you’re wrong? Because that’s what I’m feeling right now and it feels great.

    Also, I was right about the future being cool before it was cool. Does that make me a hipster?

    1. Rightenfreude

  11. I predicted years ago the model projections were wildly exaggerated. Where’s my hat tip?

    1. You and everyone else with a half an ounce of sense.

    2. I came out of high school having bought into the whole global warming bullshit. Then came access to information via the internet. My view of the matter swung 180 degrees over about a month. This was also my first big lesson on trusting “authority”, which quickly led me to libertarianism.

      tldr; 1990’s global warming hype caused me to read!

      1. It started when I was in high school and college. The real geekjob lefty high school morons were already believing the talking points. I was calling bullshit then. It really pissed them off.

  12. Looks like the Navy Yard thing is a disgruntled employee who is dead at the scene. The police are looking for two other guys who “may have been involved”. Color me skeptical that the guys actually exist. Hard to find followers for your evil plan to go postal on your boss. I bet this is just another case of a loan nut being pissed about being fired or whatever.

    1. Loan nut? Another student loan victim?

      1. Perhaps so or someone underwater on the mortgage.

        1. The media will be so happy if this is an angry white man.

          1. Won’t they be? They have to be on verge of hyperventilating right now over the prospect. Just think, what if he voted Republican? A member of the NRA? Rachel Maddow must be close to orgasm right now.

            1. Rachel Maddow must be close to orgasm right now

              Didn’t need that image.

            2. Maybe he’s an avid Tea Partier too!

              1. It’s so disgusting that they want all of this to serve a political purpose. I mean, it’s so obvious when they keep trying to twist each shooting into their political narrative, no matter what the facts are. God help us all if they get a documented libertarian wacko to work with.

                1. It is disgusting. If the shooter turns out to be a Muslim or a black guy or anyone but a white male, they will get it out of the news as quickly as possible. If it is a white male, it will be on the news for months and reflect the deep seated racism of America, the need for gun control, and the dangerous nature of white men. What will be do about the inherent violent nature of white men? I can hear it now.

                  1. Well, he could be a white male who is a obvious leftist. That could be. . .awkward.

                    1. Then the fault will be with the environment he was raised in, not with the shooter himself. Also, easy access to guns MADE him shoot those people.

          2. Well after having their hopes dashed in the Boston bombing, they could really use a pick-me-up.

    2. Damn, do you think it was the HELOC or the mortgage that sent him over the edge? Interest rates these days are craaaazy…

      1. Too late. Pro beat you too it. Lame pedantic spelling jokes are only funny once. Unlike chimps in suits or tow the lion, they have a short half life.

        1. The time stamps are the same, dammit!

          1. Your powers are weak, old man.

            1. The squirrels are with ProL.

              1. We have reached. . .an accommodation.

    3. You mean the magic “Gun Free Zone” sign didn’t work?

      Honestly, I am shocked. Really. This is my shocked face. I absolutely did not foresee someone getting shot in a gun free zone. Nope. Totally unforeseeable.

      1. No kidding. Now they’re going to have to print up new signs to make it a bullet free zone as well. Surely that will fix it once and for all.

  13. So, when can we skeptics expect an apology from the watermelons?

    1. Never. It may have been a lie, but it was a noble lie told for the right reasons. And thus you are still evil for disputing it.

      1. I subscribe to Big Picture Science thru iTunes & it’s generally a pretty good podcast. However, on one episode they were dealing with the things that Hollywood scifi movies got wrong. All were mercilessly (& rightly) mocked. UNTIL the got to “The Day After Tomorrow.” The host pointed out the flaws in the movie but then concluded with (& I paraphrase here): but, since it was for a good cause, to send an urgent warning, it’s actually not that bad a thing.

        So, once again, it’s really bad to be wrong. Unless it’s not.

    2. That sounds vaguely racist.

      1. Well, I am a libertarian.

        /Tony derp

    3. I’m just going to start calling them deniers.

    4. “So, when can we skeptics expect an apology from the watermelons?”

      When Ehrlich admits there is no over-population.

  14. Does this mean they’ll repeal the law that criminalized the international symbol for a good idea?

    1. No kidding. When can I get my damn bulbs back? And a toilet that doesn’t choke on more than 2 sheets of toilet paper?

      1. Ha. Next you’re going to want you CFCs back. That ozone layer could open again in any minute. Let’s keep the laws on the books.

        CFCs will be stored next to the DDT and the light bulbs for the duration.

  15. This explains the recent rise overpopulation hand-wringing. They’re having to tone down the global warming hysteria since the weather won’t cooperate, so it’s time to transition into the next hobgoblin.

  16. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures ? and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

    May have? Since there is still ice in the arctic, the Seychelles are not under water, and it is still cold in Russia in the winter and hot in Cairo in the summer, I think “may” might be a bit of an understatement.

    1. …”hot in Cairo in the summer,”…

      Denial ain’t just….

  17. Global population explosion leading to cannibalism. New Ice Age. DDT causing mass die outs. Hole in the ozone layer caused by CFCs. Total destruction of the Rain Forest. Alar in apples. Global Warming.

    I can’t think of a time, since I was a kid reading “silent spring”, that we haven’t been in the brink of ecological doom in just fifteen years if something (somehow always the government taking something away from the people) isn’t done.

    Seems to me that one day the doomsayers may actually be right, but they sure as hell hurt their causes by being wrong so often.

    1. Of course one of them will make a prediction that some day turns out to be right. And everybody will ignore all the wrong predictions.

  18. Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC’s emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

    Now that the danger has been averted, they can close up shop and move onto other things, right? RIGHT?

    1. Did you know that the world is mere minutes away from nuclear destruction? The only solution is to give all of the nuclear weapons to the UN.

      1. I hope the Russians love their children too…

      2. There’s always the obesity epidemic. It’s an EPIDEMIC!

        I wonder how the developing world is dealing with their obesity epidemics?

        1. Fat kids with nuclear weapons?

          1. Even kids with chicken pox biological weapons.

            1. Kids are biological weapons.

            2. I’ve got it, the War on Vaccinated Kids!

  19. Yes, we were all already aware of all of this. We of course excludes the trolls.

  20. I’m betting the NYT features this story.
    on pg 26 beneath the fold…

  21. Does this mean we’ll be dialing back their Nobel prize too?

    1. Are you kidding? Those are irrevocable. Ask Obama.

      1. I think you can get those out if gum machines now anyways.

  22. We’re now being told that the dead definitely-not-a-terrorist guy is Aaron Alexis, a 34 year old from Ft. Worth, Texas.

  23. Best hat tip ever.

  24. No imminent man-made global climate catastrophe?

    Drat. Now I’ll have to save for retirement after all.

  25. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures ? and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

    Anybody that has done engineering quality modeling could have told them years ago their models were crap. I have been saying for years that the climate models were nothing but complicated curve fitting programs that would eventually depart from reality.

    As a side note … that science ignoramus Tony is nowhere to be seen.

  26. I’ve been saying all along that their models are so fatally flawed, they would have difficulty predicting what color the sky ought to be.

    Water vapor is more than 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to climate change, but the models they were using to make dire predictions ten years ago completely omitted the effects of atmospheric moisture and clouds from consideration.

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