Reason.com - Free Minds and Free Markets
Reason logo Reason logo
  • Latest
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Subscribe
    • Crossword
  • Video
  • Podcasts
    • All Shows
    • The Reason Roundtable
    • The Reason Interview With Nick Gillespie
    • The Soho Forum Debates
    • Just Asking Questions
    • The Best of Reason Magazine
    • Why We Can't Have Nice Things
  • Volokh
  • Newsletters
  • Donate
    • Donate Online
    • Donate Crypto
    • Ways To Give To Reason Foundation
    • Torchbearer Society
    • Planned Giving
  • Subscribe
    • Reason Plus Subscription
    • Print Subscription
    • Gift Subscriptions
    • Subscriber Support

Login Form

Create new account
Forgot password

Politics

The CBO's Latest Long-Term Budget Outlook: Budgepocalypse Now, Budgepocalypse Forever

Peter Suderman | 6.5.2012 5:10 PM

Share on FacebookShare on XShare on RedditShare by emailPrint friendly versionCopy page URL
Media Contact & Reprint Requests

The latest long-term budget outlook from the Congressional Budget Office reads like a particularly dark noir: Things start out pretty bad. And then they get worse.

"Over the past few years," the report's first sentence explains, "the federal government has been recording budget deficits that are the largest as a share of the economy since 1945."

Before the year is out, debt held by the public — the federal government's outstanding debts to outside parties — will equal 70 percent of the total economy. That's not a pretty picture. And it's not likely to get better. It is a foregone conclusion that large entitlements, Medicare and Medicaid in particular, are destined to cost far more as a percentage of the economy due to the aging of the Baby Boomer generation, the rise in health costs, and long-term care expenses born by Medicaid. If today's laws are kept on the books, "spending on the major federal health care programs alone would grow from more than 5 percent of GDP today to almost 10 percent in 2037 and would continue to increase thereafter."

In a quarter century, entitlements, which currently account for about 10 percent of GDP, would alone chew up a full 16 percent of the economy. That would represent a massive historical shift: For the last four decades, the entire federal government, including entitlements, has consumed an average of 18.5 percent of the country's economic output.  Relative to the size of today's economy, that would be like spending an extra $850 billion annually on entitlements. In a growing future economy, it will be far more.

Unless the federal government pursues substantial reforms to these programs, there is no way to avoid this. "Without significant changes in government policy," the CBO's report says, "those factors"—the aging of the population, Medicaid long-term care, rising health costs—"will boost federal outlays relative to GDP well above their average of the past several decades—a conclusion that holds under any plausible assumptions about future trends in demographics, economic conditions, and health care costs." On our current policy trajectory, in other words, historically unprecedented levels of spending, driven by entitlement costs, do not represent a possible future. They represent the only future.

Now, it's true that on our current policy trajectory, the CBO predicts only mild deficits: That's because current law schedules taxes to rise roughly in conjunction with those historically unprecedented spending levels. Current law also calls for reimbursement cuts for physicians that are almost certain not to go into effect and Medicare cost-containment schemes that the program's Trustees have indicated are unlikely at best.

That's why the CBO also releases an alternative budget scenario in addition to its current policy scenario. The budget office doesn't take a position on which scenario is more likely, but the alternative scenario assumes that rather than stick to current law, Congress behaves more or less as it has in the past. Call it the business as usual scenario.

Under the business as usual scenario, things get really bad. Or, as the CBO puts it, "The budget outlook is much bleaker" under the assumption that Congress will continue to legislate as it has in the past. For one thing, the fiscal picture for entitlements turns out to be even worse: "If lawmakers continued certain policies that have been in place for a number of years or modified some provisions of current law that might be difficult to sustain for a long period, the increase in spending on health care programs and Social Security would be even larger," the report says.

Debt and deficits explode as well, with debt held by public running up to 200 percent of GDP by 2032. In twenty-five years, in other words, America could owe outside lenders twice the value of its annual output. And even those ugly figures don't capture the full impact of exploding debt. The CBO warns that those projections "understate the severity of the long-term budget problem under the extended alternative fiscal scenario because they do not incorporate the negative effects that additional federal debt would have on the economy." Mountain-size deficits would decrease savings rates and lead to higher interest rates, more foreign borrowing, and decreased investment domestically. Debt, then, becomes a major drag on the economy. CBO estimates that increased debt levels would reduce gross national product by roughly 4 percent in 2027 and by 13 percent in 2037. That's a big economic burden. We wouldn't just owe more. Our debt would own us more.

All this, of course, is contingent on Congress continuing to act like Congress. But although business as usual may be the most familiar option, it isn't the only one. With significant changes, especially to entitlements, the budget outlook could be substantially different, even better. But if federal policymakers keep delaying action, the fiscal outlook will remain worryingly dark: Budgepocalypse now, budgepocalypse forever.

Start your day with Reason. Get a daily brief of the most important stories and trends every weekday morning when you subscribe to Reason Roundup.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

NEXT: How Many Law Enforcement Agencies Does it Take to Investigate One Smoke Shop For "Untaxed Tobacco Products"?

Peter Suderman is features editor at Reason.

PoliticsGovernment SpendingBudgetBudget Deficit
Share on FacebookShare on XShare on RedditShare by emailPrint friendly versionCopy page URL
Media Contact & Reprint Requests

Hide Comments (11)

Editor's Note: As of February 29, 2024, commenting privileges on reason.com posts are limited to Reason Plus subscribers. Past commenters are grandfathered in for a temporary period. Subscribe here to preserve your ability to comment. Your Reason Plus subscription also gives you an ad-free version of reason.com, along with full access to the digital edition and archives of Reason magazine. We request that comments be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment and ban commenters for any reason at any time. Comments may only be edited within 5 minutes of posting. Report abuses.

  1. joshua corning   13 years ago

    Wez in road warrior really is under appreciated.

    They should remake that movie and center it around his character.

    Much more authentic anti-hero then Max.

    1. Almanian's Evil Twin   13 years ago

      "You can run! But you can't hide!"

  2. John   13 years ago

    If we would just spend more, the economy would get going and our problems would be solved.

  3. Paul.   13 years ago

    And how's the next election shaping up? Let's look at the numbers, Bob!

    NPR did a story this morning in which African Americans were reported to have an unemployment rate of over 13%, much higher than whitey, or Asian-ey, or, well, anyone else.

    "This could be", NPR carefully explained, "an area that could hurt him this November".

    "With whom", I wondered to myself.

    Cue man-on-the-street interviews with black folk.

    Several interviews later, it came down to:

    Still voting for him.
    Bush's fault.
    Not his fault.
    Republicans fault.
    Nothing he can do.
    Will be voting for him in November.
    I'm a hard-core lefty, I like him, but didn't vote for him in 2008 and won't be in '12.

    NPR's anecdotal summary: Obama hasn't lost one vote in the AM community due to the economy. Not... one...

    Biden 2016!

    1. Nick M   13 years ago

      I thought this SNL skit was spot on: http://www.hulu.com/watch/3312.....s-he-doing

  4. Professor Booty   13 years ago

    NOOOOOOOO! NO MORE TALK! WE GO IN! WE KILL!

    1. Almanian's Evil Twin   13 years ago

      WE GO!

    2. ant1sthenes   13 years ago

      Dude, gross! No queefing on Reason threads.

  5. JW   13 years ago

    In a quarter century, entitlements, which currently account for about 10 percent of GDP, would alone chew up a full 16 percent of the economy. That would represent a massive historical shift: For the last four decades, the entire federal government, including entitlements, has consumed an average of 18.5 percent of the country's economic output.

    There has been too much pandering. Too much vote-buying. But I have an honorable compromise. Just walk away. Give me your Medicare, the Medicaid, the Social Security, and the whole over-developed sense of entitlement, and I'll spare your lives. Just walk away and we'll give you a safe passageway in the wastelands. Just walk away and there will be an end to the horror.

    1. Drake   13 years ago

      Deal!

      You can have all of it - as long as you never take a penny of welfare taxes from my paycheck again. And don't try to pry any welfare payments out of my kids' future earnings.

      I'll retire when I can afford it - or just drop dead at work someday.

      1. JW   13 years ago

        I am gravely disappointed. Again you have made me unleash my hogs of war.

Please log in to post comments

Mute this user?

  • Mute User
  • Cancel

Ban this user?

  • Ban User
  • Cancel

Un-ban this user?

  • Un-ban User
  • Cancel

Nuke this user?

  • Nuke User
  • Cancel

Un-nuke this user?

  • Un-nuke User
  • Cancel

Flag this comment?

  • Flag Comment
  • Cancel

Un-flag this comment?

  • Un-flag Comment
  • Cancel

Latest

Subaru Is the Latest Carmaker To Hike Prices in Response to Tariffs

Eric Boehm | 5.20.2025 4:50 PM

What Kristi Noem Gets Wrong About Habeas Corpus

Billy Binion | 5.20.2025 4:33 PM

Will Trump's Order To Lift U.S. Sanctions on Syria Be Followed?

Matthew Petti | 5.20.2025 4:00 PM

Judge Rules in Favor of New Hampshire Bakery in Fight Over Donut Mural

Emma Camp | 5.20.2025 3:20 PM

The Supreme Court Unanimously Rejects a 'Very Narrow Approach' to Deadly Force by Police

Jacob Sullum | 5.20.2025 3:00 PM

Recommended

  • About
  • Browse Topics
  • Events
  • Staff
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Advertise
  • Subscribe
  • Contact
  • Media
  • Shop
  • Amazon
Reason Facebook@reason on XReason InstagramReason TikTokReason YoutubeApple PodcastsReason on FlipboardReason RSS

© 2024 Reason Foundation | Accessibility | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

r

Do you care about free minds and free markets? Sign up to get the biggest stories from Reason in your inbox every afternoon.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

This modal will close in 10

Reason Plus

Special Offer!

  • Full digital edition access
  • No ads
  • Commenting privileges

Just $25 per year

Join Today!