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Politics

Obama Leads Romney by 6 and Is Ahead of Santorum and Paul by 10 In New Reason-Rupe National Poll

Emily Ekins | 3.26.2012 3:03 PM

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President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 46 percent to 40 percent in the latest national Reason-Rupe poll of 1,200 adults. With independent voters, Obama holds a 12-point advantage over Romney (47-35).

Rep. Ron Paul and former Sen. Rick Santorum both trail Obama by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent. However, Paul performs better than Romney and Santorum among independents, trailing Obama 45-40.

In a hypothetical three-way presidential race with Paul running as an independent candidate, Obama's support drops to 41 percent, but he still easily tops Romney's 30 percent and Paul's 17 percent.

In another three-way race, Obama beats Santorum 42 percent to 27 percent, with Paul getting 18 percent of the vote as an independent.

 

Full poll results found here.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 10th-20th of both mobile and landline phones, 1200 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percent. Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. 

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.

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NEXT: Obama Leads Romney by 6 and Is Ahead of Santorum and Paul by 10 In New Reason-Rupe National Poll

Emily Ekins is a research fellow and director of polling at the Cato Institute.

PoliticsCampaigns/ElectionsRon PaulMitt RomneyBarack ObamaRick Santorum
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  1. o3   13 years ago

    twice is nice!...
    ...or i picked a bad day to quit sniffing glue

    1. rather troll alert   13 years ago

      The above post appears to have been made by an individual who assumes multiple identities, including, but not limited to, "Mary Stack", "rather", "White Indian", "rctlfy", and "mstack60". Potential aliases could also include "shrike" and "o3", but are not confirmed.

      Please do not reply to posts made by this person or attempt to engage in debate.

      Characteristics of postings by this person include use of bold and italics, cutting and pasting of writings by Jason Godesky (who appears to not be involved), debating in bad faith, impersonating others, using inciteful language, and making large quantities of posts 24/7.

      Thank you for your cooperation.

      1. sticks   13 years ago

        Rather sucks. White Indian sucks. Please explain why you think they are one in the same.

        1. BakedPenguin   13 years ago

          Why don't you tell us, Mary Stack.

          1. Extra Sausage   13 years ago

            "Mary Stack" seems to have gotten under the skin of the collective.

            Discuss.

            1. onnta   13 years ago

              I think they just get angry when a woman violates their narrative.

    2. RedDragon6009   13 years ago

      Thrice is better.

      1. EDG reppin' LBC   13 years ago

        Thrice is pretty good.

  2. Bingo   13 years ago

    Uhh, it might have been a better idea to make a few posts over the week instead of dumping all the Reason-Rupe stuff in a single afternoon.

  3. Appalachian Australian   13 years ago

    In other words, it's not possible to vote against Obama this year.

  4. John   13 years ago

    Obama is the incumbent and is still well below 50%. Unless Romney is found with a dead girl or a live boy, doubtful things will get much worse for him now. And it is hard to see how Obama picks up more votes than he already has. Absent a third party, whoever wins has to get to 50%. That is usually a lot harder for an incumbent, who is below 50% after three years in office.

    1. shrike   13 years ago

      You're an idiot. 50% means nothing. Only electoral votes do.

      Romney is pathetic. ANN Romney is better than her pathetic spouse.

      1. shrike   13 years ago

        also, christfag

      2. John   13 years ago

        Once in my lifetime has a candidate lost the popular vote and not won the election. 50% matters.

        1. Mo   13 years ago

          In three-eights of the elections in my life, the eventual winner had less than 50% of the popular vote and in one of them, the winner had 50.7%. So 50% isn't that important.

          1. John   13 years ago

            Those other elections had third party candidates. 50% is very important absent a third party candidate, which is what I said.

            I know it has been a while since I took fist grade math, but are you aware of a way to win a two way election without getting over 50%?

            1. Mo   13 years ago

              There's no such thing as a two way election. Last I checked, Gary Johnson will be running, as will the usual coterie of third party candidates.

              FWIW, Romney would need those undecideds to break two for one for. The way the economy is going and Romney's Republican John Kerry impression make that a tough hill to climb without help from the economy.

  5. shrike   13 years ago

    With independent voters, Obama holds a 12-point advantage over Romney (47-35).

    Romney stands for nothing. He is easily the worst candidate since Dukakis.

    1. Barry D   13 years ago

      What about Dole, McCain and Kerry?

      Does Michael Dukakis have to be the butt of jokes FOREVER?

      1. shrike   13 years ago

        Dukakis established his own depth of suckage way past those three. Romney has a good chance to sink lower though.

        1. Maxxx   13 years ago

          Romney's an elephant t(b)Songass

  6. kinnath   13 years ago

    These polls are useless. The election will be decided by the S&P 500, the unemployment rate, and gas prices.

    If the general population is relatively "happy" with life, the incumbent skates on by. Otherwise, the incumbent goes home in January 2013.

    1. shrike   13 years ago

      Rational. The S&P 500 is 1410 now. If its 1100 in November Obama is doomed even though it was 800 when he was sworn in. Same way with gas and UE.

      The trend is what matters.

      1. R C Dean   13 years ago

        Another "summer of recovery" like the last two, and Obama is toast.

        It would have been nice for the Repubs to put up a candidate who might have a shot regardless of the economy, but we have the proverbial "generic Republican", so its all up to economy now.

      2. Tulpa   13 years ago

        You mean S&P in real dollars, right?

        Oops...no you don't.

        1. kinnath   13 years ago

          I truly hate to defend shrike here, but I don't think it matters if it's real dollars or not.

          The driving factor is public perception. If the people are pleased by seeing their 401K go up instead of down, then the trend alone can have an impact on the election.

        2. shrike   13 years ago

          yeah, real dollars.

          Not some phony gold-weighted dollars.

          Uncle Buck is still King of the Hill and the DXY proves it.

          1. John   13 years ago

            So that is adjusted for inflation? No. It is $1414 today. So that is in today's dollars not 2009 dollars.

            You claim to work in finance? And you don't know this? You are so stupid Shrike you make Tony look bright sometimes.

            Of course you an excuse, you are fucking clinically insane. So there is that.

          2. Paul   13 years ago

            Not some phony gold-weighted dollars.

            You know, I'm not a gold-bug/gold-standard guy, but to suggest that what we have now are "realer" than gold-weighted dollars seems highly dubious. And I'm being polite.

            1. shrike   13 years ago

              So when gold falls 50% does that mean stocks gain 100%?

              1. Tulpa   13 years ago

                If stocks stay constant, I could buy that analysis.

                Gold's not falling 50% any time soon, btw. Next time use a plausible number.

          3. rather troll alert   13 years ago

            The above post appears to have been made by an individual who assumes multiple identities, including, but not limited to, "Mary Stack", "rather", "White Indian", "rctlfy", and "mstack60". Potential aliases could also include "shrike" and "o3", but are not confirmed.

            Please do not reply to posts made by this person or attempt to engage in debate.

            Characteristics of postings by this person include use of bold and italics, cutting and pasting of writings by Jason Godesky (who appears to not be involved), debating in bad faith, impersonating others, using inciteful language, and making large quantities of posts 24/7.

            Thank you for your cooperation.

          4. R C Dean   13 years ago

            Uncle Buck is still King of the Hill

            Not for much longer. All sorts of bilateral agreements are going in place as we speak setting up trade settlement in non-dollar currencies.

            We are rapidly losing "reserve currency" status.

    2. Barry D   13 years ago

      Furthermore, McCain was WAY ahead in the polls at the end of Summer, 2008.

      Not just the candidate, but the candidate's whole party, rides this wave.

      1. Barry D   13 years ago

        Should have said "whole incumbent party".

  7. Tulpa   13 years ago

    Call it a dead Trayvon bounce.

    1. kinnath   13 years ago

      Golf clap.

      1. o3   13 years ago

        oprah clap
        w those lil binos

    2. John   13 years ago

      +100

    3. Loki   13 years ago

      Dead black kids bounce? Who knew.

      1. Cytotoxic   13 years ago

        Just like basketballs...

  8. Fist of Etiquette   13 years ago

    Margin of error = idiots who are home to answer the phone and, furthermore, willing to respond to pollsters percent.

    1. The Derider   13 years ago

      Check the methodology-- includes 496 cell phone users, 232 of whom do not have a land line at all.

      1. Fist of Etiquette   13 years ago

        Poll results cause blindness, give you hairy palms and make Baby Jesus cry. And those cell phone users would be outside my margin of error... OR WOULD THEY?

    2. Paul   13 years ago

      They call cell phones now. I got a few poll calls a month or so ago, and I just kept punching the digit for "bailouts are like rainbows".

  9. Warren   13 years ago

    YOU SONS OF BITCHES!
    You deleted my comment.
    You anti-free speech fucks.

  10. The Derider   13 years ago

    I wonder what Mitt's polling numbers would look like if he hadn't spent the last 6 months trying to convince the electorate he isn't a moderate.

    Better nationally, but he probably would have lost the primary already.

    Thanks tea party!!!

    1. Paul   13 years ago

      Yeah, thanks Tea Party. If they're responsible for the Republicans losing a dozen elections due to their stupidity and lip service to small government, consider it message sent.

  11. Obama   13 years ago

    I got this one in the bag. We're calling this year's campaign strategy Sister Souljah Plus. Every six weeks until November the forces of Sharpton, Farrakhan and Jackson are going to find something new to demagogue and when the cause of the moment reaches the breaking point, I'll intercede and calm things down. By November you'll all have the Pavlovian response to vote for me to keep the black man in line.

    1. Racist Gun Dog   13 years ago

      But I can only hunt so much.

  12. Tulpa   13 years ago

    Maybe BO's presumptuous remark to Medvedev was justified.

    President Barack Obama told Russia's leader Monday that he would have more flexibility after the November election to deal with the contentious issue of missile defense, a candid assessment of political reality that was picked up by a microphone without either leader apparently knowing.

    "This is my last election," Obama is heard telling outgoing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. "After my election, I have more flexibility."

    Medvedev replied in English, according to a tape by ABC News: "I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir," an apparent reference to incoming President Vladmir Putin.

    1. Killazontherun   13 years ago

      His first four years were Obama Constrained? Fuck.

    2. Brandon   13 years ago

      This might not be his last election if he loses.

  13. Redland Jack   13 years ago

    Hmmm. So, in 3 candidate races, 10% of Paul's support comes from Romney/Santorum voters, 5% comes from Obama voters, and 2-3% comes from 3rd party/non-voters.
    When Paul runs head-to-head with Obama, 5-6% of those who would have voted for Romney/Santorum switch over to Obama, causing Obama to win the election.
    Er, with the caveat that all of those '%' mean percentage points.

    1. The Derider   13 years ago

      Apparently those 5% like the federal reserve more than they hate obama.

  14. Geotpf   13 years ago

    Obama is at dead girl/live boy territory. This isn't news. Had the Republicans nominated a Reagan, or even a Nixon, maybe they would have had a shot. But they nominated the Republican version of John Kerry-and he was the best of the dozen or so people who ran for the nomination.

  15. shrike   13 years ago

    A.B.U.

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