Mitt Romney and Ron Paul Tie Among 18-29 Year-Old Republicans

In the latest Reason-Rupe survey, respondents who self-identify as Republicans were asked if they were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which of the following candidates would they favor? Ron Paul and Mitt Romney tied for first place among Republican respondents aged 18-29 with 19 percent each. Older Americans are most likely to favor Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Young Americans are also more likely than older Americans to say they do not know for whom they will vote, at 22 percent.

Ron Paul's ability to gain favor among young Republicans may foreshadow a re-shaped Republican coalition in years to come.

If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (Asked of self-identified Republicans)

Click here for full survey results. 

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent U.S. Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll's fieldwork. View full methodology. 

Comments

[Heroic Mulatto]

The strong showing for Perry among Boomers proves the moral righteousness of a Logan's Run/Soylent Green future.

[o2]

perry's strong w gen xers too

[Scruffy Nerfherder]

It must be our despair....

[Walter]

I seriously think these folks are just saying that about Palin and Bachmann to mess with the pollsters.

And Giuliani? Never trust anyone over 30 and under 45.

[robc]

Hey!

I need 3 years to escape that bracket.

I was wondering that myself though. I know a number of Paul supporters my age.

[Scruffy Nerfherder]

Giuliani? Really? I don't know a single person my age that hates this country enough to vote for Giuliani.

[ClubMedSux]

I wonder if it reflects the age group who was old enough to pay attention to what was going on during 9/11 but still young enough to be incredibly na?ve regarding the bullshit that he was somehow a hero at the time.

[ClubMedSux]

And yes, I fall into that age group, so I speak from some experience (though the fact that I myself never bought his bullshit should be obvious from the fact that I'm posting on this forum).

[pmp]

Wow, Gary Johnson's really kicking ass in that survey.

[BakedPenguinNativist]

Yeah, I was hoping to see at least a small boost from the FL debate.

[BakedPenguin]

Damn joke handle...

[Joe M]

That poll is from mid-August. It barely factors in the Ames straw poll results and Perry's official announcement.

[NAL]

I think it's all about Ron Paul being in the race. Johnson would be doing much better if Paul hadn't run. Conversely, if/when Johnson drops out, his 1-2% will probably all go over to Paul.

[ClubMedSux]

I also wonder how much better Johnson would be doing if he had been quick enough on his feet to condemn the booing of the gay soldier at the last debate. Given his record, I have no doubt that his silence was the result of his inexperience on a national stage rather than some desire to fit in or appease the crazies in the party base, but damn he had an opportunity to really stand out there.

[Fist of Etiquette]

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to feel good about this or not.

[Ted S.]

Any reason why you need to post poll data in a .jpg? Wouldn't it be easier and a lot less of a memory hog to use a p block with a fixed-width font?

[Bee Tagger]

Mmmmmmm.... memory hog. Bacon you never forget.

[Jerry]

When Reason was posting 6MB jpeg images in their posts, -that- was a memory hog.

[Ted S.]

This is why I surf reason with only cached images set to display. Why I should have to turn on images to see poll results is beyond me.

And don't get me started on those fucking word clouds.

[Joe M]

Why are you guys posting this now, more than a month after the survey was taken? It includes Pawlenty, fer chrissakes.

[Joe M]

Plus, this was already discussed when Gallup had a poll showing Paul getting 29% of the 18-29 vote. Scooped!

[Proprietrist]

And Palin, who's not a candidate as of right now.

[Proprietrist]

...and Giuliani.

[?]

Wow, Gary Johnson's really kicking ass in that survey.

He tore it five new holes.

[cynical]

Well, I thought it was funny.

[Troy]

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul Tie Among 18-29 Year-Old Republicans

So?

[julie]

Ron Paul is the only one capable. He is the only one who has studied every aspect of all issues and actually has a plan.

[Proprietrist]

Poll: Ron Paul beats Obama 51% to 49%!!! Wow.

[Katherine Mangu-Ward]

Didn't you hear me the first time?! He's UNELECTABLE!!!

[Hank Rearden]

Yes, Reason is for free minds. Also feel free to go work for National Review.

[Zuo]

Gee I wonder if the high precentages Mittens, RON, and Turd Palin garner in this survery has anything to do with that they've all been annoyingly visible for years, and all have been campaigning nonstop since fucking 2008?

Ron Paul, like Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney, is a stupid shithead.

But I love all the "libertarians" on this sight who get a boner for some oldass, incoherent, whining TEAM RED dipshit like ron paul. Fucking classic.

[Concerned Citizen]

I'll need some time to digest the intellectual depth of your critique of Ron Paul.

[mr simple]

Now we just have to wait for these people to get old enough to care enough to take the time to vote.

[Lost_In_Translation]

The pensioners must not have heard when Perry called SS a ponzi scheme or they think he's in on the joke (haha, screw gen y'ers)

[Mr. Mark]

Confirms what I already knew. They're morons.

[Auric Demonocles]

Short and sweet:

Alt. Text.

[sunny black]

I've never seen ANYONE support Mitt Romney. I don't know any Romney supporters and I've never seen a blog forum where someone wrote "Go Romney!" or "Romney/Rubio 2012-- yeehaw!"

I see and know TONS of Paul, Cain, Perry, Palin, Christie supporters. No one for Romney.

[Proprietrist]

I don't think Romney's the kind of candidate that generates enthusiasm from anyone. He's merely the least harmless, most presidential-looking/sounding candidate, and thus the one pragmatists assume has the best chance to beat Obama.

If he continues to be the only candidate that polls consistently above Obama, I think the nomination will be his to lose. I'd guess the Republicans are practical enough that they won't nominate Perry/Bachmann/etc. if they continue to trail Obama by 9 points in most polls. Romney's just more of a sure thing than anyone else, if the goal is simply to get Obama out.

[David]

It's really pathetic to me that Reason, who I consider to have a pretty solid amount of journalistic and intellectual integrity; conducts polls where they ask whether people would vote for candidates who aren't running.

Might as well ask if people would vote for Reagan.

[AlmightyJB]

I will say that I'm pretty happy that Santorum did so poorly. Johnson can partially blame lack of exposure but Santorum's had his name in the game a while. It's interesting that Palin's appeal is at such a consistant level across age groups up intil 65. Not sure what that means but interesting.

[AlmightyJB]

Also, would have been interesting to see Christie in the mix.

[Proprietrist]

I'd assume they didn't because Christie was pretty firm in his rejection of candidacy, whereas Palin and Giuliani were heavily hinting they would possibly run at the time.

[TLR]

Thank you for the poll. It's good to see Ron Paul's numbers matching his popularity/progress.

[Houston]

Isn't it a little misleading to include people in a poll who aren't running?