If You Like Your Health Plan, You Can Keep Your Plan Cross Your Fingers And Hope Your Employer Doesn't Drop Its Health Coverage

President Obama, 2009: "If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan." 

But what if, um, maybe not? USA Today, 2011:

Nearly one in 10 midsize or large employers expects to stop offering health coverage to workers once federal insurance exchanges start in 2014, according to a survey from a large benefits consultant.

Towers Watson also found in a survey completed last month that an additional 20% of companies are unsure about what they will do.

Another big benefits consultant, Mercer, found in a June survey of large and smaller employers that 8% are either "likely" or "very likely" to end health benefits once the exchanges start.

If anything, these numbers are low. A McKinsey survey of employers released in June found that nearly a third of employers are likely to drop their coverage thanks to ObamaCare. The Urban Institute suggested last year that, in the wake of the health care overhaul, "droves of employees—potentially tens of millions—are likely to shift out of employer-provided insurance." Former Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin found substantial incentives for employers to drop coverage, and estimated that as many as 35 million individuals could end up getting their health insurance from the government-run exchanges created by the health care overhaul. 

But those with employer-sponsored insurance aren't the only ones whose are at risk of losing their current coverage: College students, some Medicare part D beneficiaries, employees working for small businesses, and those currently on plans that don't meet the law's grandfathering requirements may also find themselves unable to keep their existing health plan. 

The current health care system, which relies on giving tax preference to employer-sponsored insurance, obviously has its drawbacks. But ObamaCare just piles another middle-class insurance subsidy on top of the old one. Either way, it was sold on a promise that just isn't true. 

Watch Reason.tv's interview with Glenn Morton about ObamaCare's health insurance exchanges: