Reason Morning Links: North Korea Prepares for War, No Monopoly for the NFL, Crime Tumbles in the U.S.
- Tension mounts between North and South Korea.
- Supreme Court unanimously rules against granting NFL antitrust exemption.
- Violent crime dropped dramatically last year in the U.S.
- World markets down, fears of European debt loom.
- A new sex scandal in South Carolina.
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In this gloomy sea of bad news, at least we get one thing: The NFL takes it on the chin.
That made me very happy. I hope there is a lockout in 2011 and the players all bolt and play for the UFL. I would love to see that collection of crooks, welfare queens and idiot sons go broke.
Word. Fuck the NFL.
Wait, are we fucking the league or the players?
Fuck everyone -- let God sort them out!
Come on, Minnesota. It's time you took responsibility for your football team and build us a new stadium. And if you claim you don't have the money to spare, we'll just move somewhere where the government can afford to build a nice stadium, like LA or Las Vegas.
I'll help you pack your bags.
I know all the cool kids and the "experts" and wannabe "experts" who know so much about Korea keep claiming this whole thing will blow over. But, what if they are wrong? I am really starting to worry. I don't know a lot about Korea, although I know some, but I do know that a Korean war would be horrible. And I also know that it is human nature to see what you want to see. And no one wants to think there will be a war.
Well, the north is so malnourished that it should be over pretty quickly.
I agree, but when you have thousands of artillery tubes, huge amounts of poison gas and several nuclear weapons, it doesn't take very long for it to be horrible.
Nice distraction from the oil spill, though.
You're telling me.
Psst. Ixnay on the ommentscay.
Good point. Old Kimmy is just the guy to launch a nuke. Well, that's worrisome. Luckily, though, if you can consider this lucky, they don't have the proper missles to attack anyone outside of South Korea and Japan, neither of whom, if memory serves me, have nukes. It would be a one-time assault, and then the rest of the world would go squash that cockroach. Atrocious though it would be, at least it wouldn't lead to any MAD or anything.
S.Korea and Japan have military allies who have ICBMs.
So does NK, in theory.
It would be a one-time assault, and then the rest of the world would go squash that cockroach.
Maybe. If China says no squashing our cockroach client, then I don't think it happens.
Calm down, John.
As I pointed out yesterday, remember the run-up to first Gulf War the media was pissing its collective pants talking about Iraq's "Fourth Largest Military in the World"*
I think Chris has the right idea, the amount of starvation and despair in NKorea would lead to a quick cessation of conflict. Also, we wouldn't have to worry as much about nation building. With reunification a mechanism is already in place for government and infrastructure. I would argue, that the NKoreans will be less inclined to an Iraqi type insurgency due to three conditions:
1. No religious motivation/zeal. Some will argue that NKorea is the god of its people, but we'll see how that plays out when the pointed gun is removed.
2. No outside actors seeking to contribute to mayhem. In Iraq it is known that groups from Iran and other nations are trying to stall the nation building process and create destruction to humiliate the US. No such groups are present or are foreseeable.
3. The conditions for the average NKorean are bleak. This along with family ties between those of the north and south would give NKoreans little reason for insurgency.
Though, it would be important to have hot hostilities be as short as possible, as to remove NKorean leaders quickly; a protracted battle could inspire nationalism. The sooner as normalized government function and trading occur in the north the quicker that southern leadership can be left to run the country without a large US military presence.
*(genuine scare quotes)
A korean war would cause tremendous numbers of casualties even if it only lasted a few days. Also, who is to say China or Russia would stay out of it. A united, militarized Korea is a serious problem for the Chinese. Also, the Chinese have their own internal problems and have stoked a lot of nationalism to deal with them. How does the Chinese government explain to its nationalist populace that it is going to allow the US and Japan to unite Korea against it?
It would be a real mess.
I am curious as to why you think there would be massive casualties. Don't quote troop build-up numbers either.
The first thing the US would do is take out communication, which is very important to an inflexible centrally commanded military like Nkorea's. At the dmz fighting would occur, but without orders from Pyongyang the rigidity of the Nkorean forces would become a severe liability. Without fear of reprisal, I believe, mass surrender would occur.
NK does have some long range rockets, but their accuracy and effectiveness are questionable. Besides, the location of NK's important military installations are probably geo-located already and would be taken out first along with communications, and resource centers(first 24hrs perhaps).
Considering China, I don't think that China has expended so much energy becoming a modern economic power to waste it defending NKorea. China has been distancing itself from the regime ever so slightly but noticeably for a few years now. Also, a unified Korea is probably the least of the problems the Chinese government has with its populace. The Chinese most likely will be placated with some sort of preferred trading status. If hostilities are imminent, then China will likely spin the inevitable outcome as a victory for China and her people.
I hope you are right about China. As far as the casualties, the NORKS have something like a million artillery tubes pointed at the South. If even half of them got off one round, All of the northern suburbs of Soul would be leveled. Also, they have huge stockpiles of chemical weapons. If they used their Chem shells mixed in with explosive ones, it would kill tens of thousands more.
I know we would kick their ass. And so would the South, who have a good army. But the peninsula is so small and so densely populated, there would be no way to prevent mass civilian casualties.
Our last experience with a conventional war was the invasion of Iraq. That is perfect for our forces. There is a huge empty desert to maneuver in. We were able to bi-pass cities and Iraqi forces and avoid serious casualties. Well Korea is not Iraq. There is no where to maneuver. The place is covered in very steep high hills with two valleys running north and south. There are only a couple of ways to get into the North unless you launch an amphibious assault. As a result there is no way to out maneuver and isolate forces the way we did in Iraq. You just have to go headlong up those valleys and take on a huge North Korean force. Yeah, our air power would mean a lot. But those forces will be dug in and well camouflaged. We won't just be able to bomb them out like we did in Iraq. We will have to go up on the ground and kill them. There is just no good way to do it. Yeah, we would win, but it wouldn't be any three week live fire exercise drive up to Baghdad.
Sounds more like AFG than IRQ, except there's no Northern Alliance and the Taliban analogues have nukes.
I guess we just have to agree to disagree.
Your claim that the forces would welcome a protracted fight is a good worst case scenario. Of course a contingency plan should be available in case Nkorea decides to fight. I believe, however, that with enough initial infrastructure destruction the Northern forces won't have the will to fight without central command. Furthermore, though their natural geography could be used to keep the insurgency in the hills with severely diminished supply lines. I don't know if a war of attrition is popular in the 21st century, but certainly we could contain their forces enough, and possibly starve them out.
Of course the biggest problem is what to do with the civilian population. There would undoubtedly be a massive refuge population, that would have to be considered. Also, in that population separating the wheat from the chaff would be difficult. If the North decided to fight, then insurgents could hide in the refuge numbers and plot potential terrorist activities on free zone areas.
Here is a supposedly leaked abstract from NKorea, detailing strategy and capabilities.
This is the estimated missile capacity of NKorea.
dude read the first link. It is pretty scary.
I did read it, but considering the source it impossible to sort the truth from the half-truths,and flat out lies.
I read it mostly for entertainment purposes and figured it would interest you, so I posted it.
The part about NKorean soldiers being sufficiently indoctrinated is telling. This means they realize we see their troop's commitment as a liability, instead of a strength, to be disputed. Also it says the "main cause" of Iraq's defeat was their soldier's low "moral"(sic).
The Cold War is over, dude. South Korea -- and thus a potential united Korea -- is not an enemy of China, and from what I can tell is not thrilled about even being an enemy of the Norks either when they have much more reason to be.
if there ever was a war, though Seoul may be in trouble for a little while due to artileray bombardment, the North would be destroyed quite quickly. Their military is in shambles and doesnnt have the logistical capabilities to fight for very long. This is likely more typical North Korean sabor rattling where they back down after "negotiations" that allow them to extort more aide packages out of the west and South Korea.
It is likely but not certain. The problem is that Kim, like all dictators is terrified of his own people. Once he starts pushing he has to continue to push or lose face. He is dying. And he is desperately trying to bring his idiot son into power. He may not be in a position to back down. The whole thing is very dangerous.
The idiot son had an idiot son? This can't be good.
Yes. Each generation gets worse than the last. His son apparently makes the Hussain boys look like statesman.
It's been a while since we've had a good Caligula.
Yeah, but Fredo with his hand on the big red button? Quick, send him some cocktail waitresses!
At least he won't make his horse a general. They ate them all. And some of the human generals at this point.
Actually, what terrifies me most is if the NORK leadership tells their million soldiers that there is food on the other side of the border, but they have to fight to get it.
Actually, I'd prefer if NK launches an invasion instead of having to fight them on their own territory.
+1
The plus one to SF
You know, every time I am reminded of Uday and Qusay laid out dead and buck-assed naked at the morgue I smile big.
Leave your necrophilia out of this.
Probably a dumb question, but why couldn't the South evacuate Seoul in advance of a strike against the North to minimize civilian casualties?
Probably because evacuating 20 million people is the definition of a logistical impossibility.
Sorry, 10 million.
I'm no expert, but I do follow events there fairly closely because I have family in Daegu.
1) Kim Jong Il is sick and might not care if he brings everything down around his ears. He's batshit crazy and might decide to go out with a bang instead of passing control on to his youngest son.
2) We have 28K (or so, not sure about the exact number) troops stationed between the north and Seoul. In the case of a massive surprise attack they don't have the capability to hold ground. They are there as a human tripwire. If the North wants Seoul they will have to kill enough Americans to bring the US into the conflict.
3) Don't assume that the North's military will be a pushover. They aren't all that mechanized, so there isn't a lot that air power can disrupt. They will be able to kill a lot of people in a short amount of time.
I sure hope that this is all saber rattling, but you can't be sure when the guy with the saber is crazy.
A human tripwire? That's grim. It would be ironic if the US president who received a Nobel peace prize brought us into part two of the Korean War.
Oh, there's plenty of irony already.
I don't think Kim does anything without permission from China. And it's too early for China to be making its move. My guess is this isn't the big one, yet.
I used to think that. But even China is worried right now. If he is dying and facing the end of his regime, even China won't be able to control him.
You really think China gave him permission to torpedo a South Korean vessel?
Probably more like told them to do it. We are being tested.
I am currently living in Korea, about an hour south of Seoul by the fast train.
Thoughts: this saber-rattling happens all the time. Most people here seem to agree that this is as pushy as the NKs have been in several decades.
The Koreans I work with are not concerned. People don't talk about the North out of general principle, but no one is concerned in their everyday lives. It is, obviously, all over the newspapers/media.
The Americans/Canadians at work are quite concerned. It's simply something you take for granted Stateside, that you don't have a fucking insane neighbor an hour away.
I am glad to not live in Seoul; I will say that. It's also horseshit that it's a capital offense to have a gun in this country. You'd think with such insanity so nearby you'd want an armed populace.
Nope.
Eek.
"Latest Decline, of 5.5%, Challenges Belief That Recessions Drive Up Rate"
It must be frustrating to write for Reason, because the rest of the media obviously doesn't bother reading this magazine. You guys were saying this months ago.
That candidate from South Carolina is pretty damned cute. I am sure a lot of people wish they had had an affair with her.
SCGCILF
ACIWNF (except for campaign $)
She's got the crazy eyes, though. It's all fun with crazy girls until they try to stab you for getting a innocuous wrong number.
Yeah but you have never really had sex until you have had post stabbing make up sex.
Depends on where you get stabbed.
How about now, big boy? Do you still wish to penetrate me?... Or is it I who has penetrated you?
penetrating eyes.
I hope I never really have sex then.
Fag.
My girlfriend keeps making that threat but unfortunately she is all talk in spite being Puerto Rican.
Before you ask, yes, I have tried, 'I'm Yennifer Lopez, and I LOVE tacos,'
As an enticement to take it up another slash, but she just counters with,
'I'm not Mexican, you eeedeeiot!'
Hard to get under the skin of a woman who watches even more cartoons than you do.
Violent crime dropped dramatically last year in the U.S.
That's obviously because of SWAT raids, Obama being president and tougher laws against illegal immigration. Or something.
It's becuase of violent video games. All the violent people, are inside killing the pixels.
As opposed to when crime rates increase, at which point we would need more SWAT raids and tougher laws against illegal immigration.
Violent crime dropped dramatically last year in the U.S.
Police departments, claiming "significant progress," make their case for increased public funding, and greater latitude in using asset forfeiture.
Considering the scandal in New York about the cops pressuring people not to report violent crimes, I wonder if those statistics are true.
Not unless the same thing is happening across the country.
I meant to say that a lot more places than New York would have to be misreporting to cause that big a drop.
Very true. But I doubt NYC is that much different than other big city police departments. I am sure there has been a drop. But I wonder about the whole reporting system and take the stats with a grain of salt.
This dramatic drop would seem to completely disprove the theory that the crime rate is closely tied to the state of the economy.
Ammo's expensive right now. Who wants to commit a violent crime with an empty gun?
Yeah, I'm sure it's that extra ten or twenty cents per round that's stopping them.
Eugene Robinson was on Morning Joe painting Rand Paul as a tin-foil hat whacko. He did give Kentukians credit dor being whacko enough to nominate the guy. Oh, and Rand also a racist, which plays well in Kentucky.
How do you watch those shows? They are just awful, all of them. The Fox morning one is sort of okay because it is all fluff and hot blonds in short skirts. But the rest of them don't even have that.
Years ago, I worked for a CFO who taught me the value of stdying the enemy. Few things are more important.
Years ago, I worked for a CFO who taught me the value of stdying the enemy. Few things are more important.
I can't type today. Sorry.
Your doing a service I am unworthy of doing. I couldn't do it. I would have an ulcer in a week. Good for you.
Men named Eugene usually have their heads up their asses.
Hey!...actually, you're right. American Pie 4 is a cry for help.
Charges filed in Carnahan health care forum fight
The Privileged Call for Limited Dictatorships
That anchoress link is great. The money quote
very murderous totalitarian government of the 20th century began with some insulated group of faux-intellectuals congratulating each other on how smart they are, and fantasizing about how, if they could just install a dictatorship-for-a-day, they could right all the wrongs in the world. It is the ultimate fantasy of the narcissist. And we've got whole generations of them, in control of our media and our government, all intent on 'remaking America.'"
Reads incredibly similar to a link from yesterday about a particular moustachioed douchebag who wishes we could be a certain country for just, just, just a day, in order to implement the proper policies.
It's not authoritarian if it's only for a day and it's the right people in charge and all that.
Apologies for not reading the link prior to posting my completely obvious comment.
"So, Allen and Friedman?and others who have kept their faces before us for 40 years by coasting on the work of their youth, because they've done nothing memorable, lately?"
Now, I understand the Woody bashing, but let's separate the man from the art. Match Point was a spectacular movie, and widely believed to be one of his best. Vicky Christina Barcelona was also amazing. Sure, he's had a lot of bombs, but that's what happens when you make a movie per year for damn near forty years.
A new sex scandal in South Carolina.
I RTFA and not only isn't is a scandal, it's not even water cooler gossip worthy. WTF? Why would anyone possibly give a shit if some blogger alleges having sex with a politician and the politician denies it? Get back to me when he puts the video on YouTube.
No kidding. He claims he had an affair with her. She denies it and is still married to the same person she was when she was supposed to have had the affair. And the guy making the accusation is some former aide of Samford who has God knows what axe to grind. And further, even if it is true, who cares? She is still married to her husband. And he is the only one who has any standing to say anything. TPM is pretty pathetic.
If only people said that when during the Lewinsky scandal.
"Hillary is still married to him and she's the only one who has any standing to say anything."
If only Bill had had an affair before he was President rather than getting blowjobs from a teenage intern in the Oval office. Seriously Mo.
What does that have to do with anything? You just said the husband is the only on with standing to say anything.
No. You said if only people had said that during the Lewinski matter. If Bill had slept around on his own time before he came in office, or with someone who didn't work for him while there, you would be right. But, since he did it with a teenage intern in the Oval office, that gives the rest of the country standing to say something about it. If he had been banging Diane Sawyer on the side, not so much. But an intern in the Oval office, yes.
Bullshit. He had an affair with another consenting adult. Why should any one care but his wife? It had nothing to do with how he did the job of President.Of course, everyone has standing to say something about anything they want to.
Except he wasn't impeached for having an affair, he was impeached and disbarred for lying under oath to a judge during a civil right's lawsuit. Sure, some prudes made a stink about the affair, but ultimately that's not what it was about.
If this guy's blue sweatpants turn up and have a vaginal secretion stain on them that turns out to belong to her, that will be a valid comparison. Till then, no.
I'm blocked at work. Who is this politician?
You should try eating more fiber.
Nikki Haley
That is so a pornstar name.
Darling Nikki.
Nikki Haley, the libertarianish Republican candidate for governor. She's being accused of infidelity by an ex-Sanford aide and current bloger, who was last in the news in 2005 when he pled guilty to beating his fiancee.
Really? Boy TPM didn't mention that.
That site is so worthless.
Haley is not "Libertarianish". She is your typical Statist, Social-Con who is all in on the open ended war on terror. The GOP is full of Nikki Haleys & that is why nothing will change after November's election.
"Beating" is an overstatement. "Shoving" is more like it.
FUCK THIS SHIT
Dem lawmaker proposes $165 billion bailout for unions:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/per.....n-bailout/
But Obama said no more bailouts, and we can totally believe him.
Well, at least the government still has nothing to do with supporting unions. They remain just a simple collective bargaining arrangement for industry that has nothing to do with the government at all.
Now they're just fucking with us.
The bill, which would put the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation behind struggling pensions for union workers, is being introduced by Senator Bob Casey, (D-Pa.), who says it will save jobs and help people.
Really Bob? Explain to me how this will save jobs (other than your's, you assclown)?
Fuck this shit indeed.
+?
(Lame ass filter needs to be crucified.)
Makes me want to have Breakfast with Bob.
All your wealth are belong to us.
Paychecks from private business shrank to their smallest share of personal income in U.S. history during the first quarter of this year, a USA TODAY analysis of government data finds.
At the same time, government-provided benefits ? from Social Security, unemployment insurance, food stamps and other programs ? rose to a record high during the first three months of 2010.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/.....ctor_N.htm
Teen wolves descend upon San Antonio high schools!
http://www.kens5.com/news/Teen.....15234.html
If they can't dunk from half-court, I don't give a shit.
SugarFree for the win.
And ha ha, funny quote. "Gangs are posers...". I thought gangs were usually criminal enterprises.
Not just funny, but insanely ironic. Gangs are "poseurs," but he thinks acting like they are werewolves is somehow authentic. Get thee to Hot Topic, cub.
Nice handle.
It's all fun with crazy girls until they try to stab you for getting a innocuous wrong number announce they're getting a divorce; for YOU.
Obama sinks down to 42% approval among likely voters, the lowest approval rating of his presidency.
Lower ...
Free association!
Contracts!
Considering the scandal in New York about the cops pressuring people not to report violent crimes, I wonder if those statistics are true.
All crime stats are unreliable and/or corrupted at at least three points between the events they enumerate and the law-enforcement press release the media regurgitates without checking, but there's a more-immigrants-less-crime meme that needs pushing for election season, so STFU, racist.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Europe's deflation torture is a gift to the Far Left
More benign? WTF?
Imbeciles. That's the fuck.
A year ago South Carolina wouldn't have even been in the top half of my list of states with the craziest politics.
If it involves South Carolina and Crazy, it starts at #1 until proven otherwise. That author is a moron.
South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum.
Most of the people with money, ambition or sense moved to GA or NC. Those that remain...
Down with capitalist oppression of the proletariat!
If the government doesn't do it, it will never happen!
People suck, and they scare me!
Yeesh, the market has only been open half an hour and it's tanking like the Boston Bruins.
Eugene Robinson was on Morning Joe
*sticks fingers in ears shuts eyes tightly*
LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALAICAN'THEARYOOOOOOOOU
"Violent crime dropped dramatically last year in the U.S."
How does this jibe with the article last week that the police are lying about crimes to make it appear that crime rates are lower than they are?
How about you read me before posting?
Does this mean that every politician who wants to be "tough on crime" from here on out will now actively TRY to ruin the economy?
Hey guys. How'd that whole "Draw Mohammed" thing work out?
Come to think of it, nothing really did happen, other than Pakistan censoring facebook for a couple of days.
How'd that whole "Draw Mohammed" thing work out?
Cancelled, due to lack of interest.
Correction: Canceled, due to an abundance of interesting in gay sex.
Sure I'm flattered -- maybe a little curious...
And perhaps also slightly lubed...
There seemed to be plenty of interest, but thankfully the Reason honchos listened to the better angels of their nature. AKA me.
What is that old canard from Marx, "history repeats itself first as tragedy and then as comedy" or some such. Well the Russian revolution was the French Revolution repeating itself as tragedy. Now ninety years later we have leftist and communists protesting so that pampered government workers can keep their pension and benefits at the expense of the proletariat. That is comedy.
I prefer Hegel's "History is a slaughterhouse," just without that s in front of 'slaughter'.
SLAUGHTER IS THE BEST MEDICINE
Also, good post. Hadn't thought of it that way. I'll be laughing all the way to the poorhouse.
I didn't say it was good comedy.
Off Topic, but a few days ago a census worker showed up at my door. I told him I sent mine in before the deadline. He said he wanted to know about my neighbors next door who hadn't sent it in. I lied and said I had no idea who lived there. He questioned my claim, but I repeated it. He went away.
In hindsight, I should have told him that eight gay Puerto Ricans lived next door.
The loser in my neighborhood has shown up at my place about every other day for the last couple of weeks.
I refuse to cooperate with this government's insane determination to try to find out what race I am.
10 years ago I got the now non-existent long form. I filled out minimal information. guy shows up. He marks down my race as "white" even though I refused to answer the race question and when he started asking me another question I slammed the door in his face.
He didnt come back. I gave minimal info again this year and havent been visited.
stupid joke names. Petigru is long dead by now.
They don't need the long form anymore because they have warrantless wiretapping and NSA geniuses tracking your credit card activity.
I had the same thing happen yesterday. A woman from the Census was knocking on my neighbors door, saw me coming out of my door, and asked me when my neighbors would be around.
I told her that, in the absence of a subpoena, I do not reveal information about my neighbors to government agents. Her jaw sort of dropped...she was probably afraid she'd wind up hanging from a tree with a "FEDERAL WORKER" sign taped to her like that other Census worker.
Why? Did she look suicidal?
Thanks! I love factual clarity.
Is anybody going to St. Louis this weekend for the LP Convention? Does anybody think that the LP can pick up steam in this climate? Am I the only big L here?
I like what you have to say and would like to subscribe to your newsletter
Depends on the big L's leadership. Seems like a good climate for it, but Libertarians haven't been particularly savvy, politically.
(Registered L and life member of the party here, but not going to St. Louis.)
http://blogs.dailymail.com/don.....ives/14581
The Leftist obsession with Palin has reached new highs. I am sure Andrew Sullivan is furious he didn't think of this.
How much do we trust the reported drop in violent crime? Couldn't it be the result of widespread fraudulent police reporting? Haven't we seen examples of systematic underreporting of real crime?
How much do we trust the reported drop in violent crime? Couldn't it be the result of widespread fraudulent police reporting? Haven't we seen examples of systematic underreporting of real crime?
Besides the fact that the US is run by idiots, why is the US spending 4.1% of GDP on defense and helping South Korea's defense when South Korea only spends 2.6% GDP on defense.
How about if South Korea thinks its in danger from North Korea that South Korea spends 4.1% GDP on its own defense and the US stops wasting money on South Korean defense?
My two-stage proposal:
(1) Give South Korea some nuclear-tipped cruise missiles that can't reach China or Japan or anyone but North Korea.
(2) Go home.
This is an incredibly compelling way to make the point.
Let's take it one step further. Let's propose a law that says "The U.S. shall make no defense expenditures in any nation that spends less than the U.S. (as a proportion of GDP) on its own defense."
I wonder this is a formula that the American public could get behind.