Writing at Politico, David Boaz and David Kirby explain the "centrist" swing vote that seems to be eluding definition by the MSM:
A careful look at polling data shows these voters may be less mysterious than analysts think.
Libertarians seem to be a leading indicator of this trend in centrist, independent-minded voters, based on an analysis of many years of polling data. We estimate that libertarians compose from 14 percent to 23 percent of voters nationally. They are among the few real swing voters in U.S. politics.
Libertarian voters are often torn between their aversion to the Republicans' social conservatism and the Democrats' fiscal irresponsibility.
These days, they are angry about spending, deficits and government takeovers — but less motivated by social issues. Libertarians are slightly more likely to be male, white, independent and moderate than the general public.