Doctor Doom's Financial Forecast: Don't Expect Good Economic Numbers For a Very Long Time
Writing in Forbes, Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. "Doctor Doom," says things are going to be bad for a very long time:
Until the economy finds new sources of growth, it will grow below potential for several years. Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years. Productivity growth has held up-on a temporary basis-during the current recession, not due to innovation or productive investment but due to aggressive cuts in labor and labor hours by firms. In the coming years, productivity growth will remain under pressure as workers age, structural unemployment rises, labor skills deteriorate, and investment and innovation slow.
New sources of growth are needed, indeed! Not just for the economy but for society writ large! Where's the action these days, boys and girls? What's shaping up to be like the way the interwebs were in the '90s (or maybe Snapple), or desktop computing was in the '80s, or punk or something else in the '70s?
Is there anything going on other than governmental elephantitis (which has a way of squashing all other sorts of activities)? When we look back on the first decade of the 21st century (gawd, it's already almost done!), what will we say was the big happening thing, other than the beginning of the end?