Two Thumbs Down on Barack Obama
Over at the excellent Splice Today, a couple of articles suggest Obama's in bigger doo-doo than is commonly acknowledged. First up, Russ Smith (an acknowledged McCain supporter) notes that Bush-bashing can only take you so far when the Dow is trading lower than Bill Clinton's pants during an Oval Office pizza party:
As the recession deepens, with even congenitally optimistic economists unable to predict any semblance of recovery in 2009, Obama will be held accountable by citizens who've lost their jobs, seen savings evaporate and the stock market—which Obama unwisely commented about last week, saying that daily DJIA/NASDAQ tallies are similar to gyrating political polls—is in the sewer. As any young businessman will tell you, nothing kills off a bad product (like Obama's economic recovery plan) faster than a good salesman. The President's a great cheerleader, and it helps that he's perceived as a hands-on chief executive, but if the results aren't there, his rhetoric will ring hollow….
Bush will be one of the quietist ex-presidents in modern times, both for being AWOL since Katrina and because, unlike Bill Clinton, he doesn't court publicity. Given the nation's collective short attention span, it's likely that by Memorial Day Bush will, except to the minority of never-say-die partisans (Keith Olbermann's the captain of that brigade), have vanished from the scene.
In a separate piece, Bragg Van Antwerp (yes, it sounds made up!) writes,
Obama continues his incredibly ambitious and expensive plans with almost no regard for the growing economic mayhem. On a day when the Dow again lost another four percent, Obama announced plans for healthcare reform with a $650 billion price tag. He's prepared to sign a $3.6 trillion budget which will double our national debt and add more to our deficit than all of his predecessors combined; he is prepared to sign the $410 billion omnibus spenging bill replete with its 8570 earmarks-something Obama promised to eliminate. Meanwhile, Geithner has yet to offer any sort of concrete plans to address the economy. The house is crumbling around him, but the President seems determined to make it bigger anyway.
Barack Obama didn't cause the problems he now faces, but he's exacerbated them. What Obama and his administration should have done—and perhaps still can—is set aside other plans and focus almost myopically on the economy. Fix this, and Obama's political capital will be nearly limitless. But fix it, and fix it now.
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Polls indicate the vast majority of Americans blame Bush for the crisis and are willing to give Obama considerable time and deference to solve it. Who knows if that's really true, but the main point is most people know who to blame and won't forgive them any time soon.
The DJIA throws tantrums. It's not an adequate measure of economic health.
That's right, thanks to Chas Freeman we all know who to blame: the Jooooooooooos!
If you model it so that the recurring demand that Obama "fix the economy" plays in much the same way that a mafioso demanding someone "fix the horserace" plays, what's going on with our economy makes much more sense. To me, anyhow. And I've studied economics. Maybe that's where I went wrong.
Raivo Pommer
raimo1@hot.ee
HEDGE-FOND
Die Kapitalabfl?sse gestalteten sich in der Branche in Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten allerdings sehr unterschiedlich: W?hrend amerikanische Hedge-Fonds in gro?em Umfang juristische Sperren nutzten, die eine sofortige R?ckzahlung von Anlagegeld an die Kunden beschr?nkten oder hinausz?gerten (Gates), ist dies bei europ?ischen Hedge-Fonds weniger ?blich. Auch gibt es in Europa mehr Dachfonds, in die Privatinvestoren investieren. Diese hatten die erste K?ndigungswelle bei Hedge-Fonds im Herbst 2008 ausgel?st. Die Kapitalabfl?sse aus Hedge-Fonds waren daher in der zweiten Jahresh?lfte vor allem in Europa relativ hoch. Die Mittel europ?ischer Hedge-Fonds schrumpften nach Einsch?tzung von Morgan Stanley um 25 bis 30 Prozent.
In den Vereinigten Staaten beliefen sich die Mittelabfl?sse zun?chst "nur" auf 15 bis 20 Prozent. Dies erkl?rt, warum der weltweite Verband der Hedge-Fonds, die Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), k?rzlich bekanntgab, dass das Anlagekapital der 1200 bei der AIMA registrierten Mitglieder jetzt zum Gro?teil von institutionellen Investoren gehalten werde und nicht mehr von verm?genden Einzelpersonen, wie dies fr?her der Fall gewesen war.
It's the Economy Stupid!
oh wait, that's racist, isn't it?
Bragg Van Antwerp sounds like an 80s movie villain. I can see him with a sweater tied around his neck as he gets his father to forclose youth camp.
Another excellent job by Nick Gillespie! He excellently described the problems we face and directed to others who also did a good job telling us what's wrong.
Of course, as could be expected, Nick didn't present a plan as to how we could fix things.
Now, don't get all snippy and compare Nick and friends to people who just stand on the river bank whining about there not being a bridge across the river, describing all the problems because there isn't a bridge, and just generally being useless and unable to actually plan and build the damn bridge.
They too also serve who only whine and moan.
Johnny Lawrence,
He definitely sounds like he wears a dickey.
I can see him with a sweater tied around his neck as he gets his father to forclose youth camp.
Teddy Beckersted?
i miss the old mugger days of russ smith at ny press when he was at his most sharply bitter.
61% give Obama an F.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29493093/
And this is from MSNBC, aka the Obama Fellating Network.
The problem for Obama - and he may even know it - is that there's nothing he can actually do to help the economy. Massive deleveraging plus massive consumer debt retranchment is something no government, however wise, can stop.
The best thing Obama can do is make sensible reforms that have positive long-term effects, like tax simplification, budget balancing, and reducing military spending. That greases the path for a strong, sustainable expansion the next time up. Sadly, none of that appears to be coming.
I am offended.
The article is just a smear piece and that photo is just being used to pile on, like the mug-shot story Reason did the other day.
Such racism should not be tolerated in public.
Mhmm, online polls are extremely scientific and accurate.
"there's nothing he can actually do to help the economy"
Actually there is, declare all credit default swaps null and void. If that isn't done, tell all the failing banks that they have to go into bankruptcy so that they can get the credit default swaps off their books. This thing isn't going to end until something is done about the QUADRILLIONS of dollars worth of CDS's are written off.
Obama == Chicken Little with a federal check-book/printing-press and access to enough nuclear weapons to end life on earth
lower than Bill Clinton's pants during an Oval Office pizza party
Bill Clinton as a poon hound jokes jumped the shark about a decade ago.
As did the expression "jump the shark"
Shut the fuck up, LoneWacko.
As did the expression "jump the shark"
The correct modern term is "nuked the fridge".
I agree with Joshua - the only way the government caused this is by allowing CDS's in the first place. That is, if you consider the Federal Reserve a NGO. I see this as a consequence of keeping rates too low for too long.
The government can help to a degree, but really this is just the result of loose monetary policy coupled with greed. The housing market bubble was a consequence of the loose monetary policy, not the cause of the recession.
The thing is, he won't be able to keep signing "stimulus" bills forever. Sooner or later, someone will be held accountable. Maybe after the biggest, most expensive example of Keynesian economics we've ever had, America might actually realize that it never works.
I'm not holding my breath. The average American is a true economic ignoramus.
Jokes about Clinton philandering are as lame as FDR.
If you model it so that the recurring demand that Obama "fix the economy" plays in much the same way that a mafioso demanding someone "fix the horserace" plays, what's going on with our economy makes much more sense.
Nice analogy.
Lonewacko, if you're going to steal my line at least don't fuck up the meter.
Obama should go golfing with Tiger and stay the fuck away from any desk. It's what W should have done too. W's best work was done at his ranch. Less is more!
This is 50 days in. I expect by the end of the year Obamanomics will look fairly different, and the administration will never admit they changed at all. Reagan didn't have Jimmy Carter to kick around anymore either after a few months in office, and at six months he even had a recession named after him, but he won reelection and eventual sainthood.
But since we're all about the short term here, it's also worth noting that the stock market has improved in the last two days. And there's no way this could be a false rally!
jester,
Your racism is showing. Sorry, the days of mixred race golfers being segregated from the rest of society is so pre-2008 that it is laughable.
Clinton also looked like a one term President in 1994, and Bush Sr. looked to be cruising to re-election in 1991.
A hell of a lot can change. Making predictions right now? You may as well ask the Magic Eight Ball.
I can see him with a sweater tied around his neck as he gets his father to forclose youth camp.
hmmm....I'm thinking more Lance Burkhart from the movie North Shore.
Jokes about Clinton philandering are as lame as FDR.
Or Heather Mills. Either way, you really don't have a leg to stand on.
Bragg Van Antwerp (yes, it sounds made up!)
To be fair, Belgium is an entirely made up country.
To be fair, Belgium is an entirely made up country.
To be fair, what country isn't?
Obama needs to cut back on spending right now. What does he think it is, a recession? Government spending during a recession? That is crazy. Just crazy.
Oh, and I love this:
See, he needs do something for the economy. But first, let's get all this government spending in check! And why bother with health care? It's totally mysterious.
This is entirely a journal from an alternate reality.
Max, we need to spend now so that we can save in times of prosperity, just like Clinton did.
This is obviously the market's appreciation for Obama's frugal gift to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Anyone who says otherwise clearly doesn't know much about economics.
nuked the fridge
I wholeheartedly endorse this updating. Jesus Christ that movie was bad.
Remember, if you don't support Obama you're an unpatriotic racist.
We need to move as much of the economy under his control as possible, because that will create economic growth. If you don't understand how this works, well that's because you're an unpatriotic racist.
*sniff, sniff*
Is something burning?
I don't see how anybody expects to me to fix the economy when I'm too tired to even find a decent gift for the Brits.
Man, this job is exhausting. If I'd known it was this hard, I never would have let Bill Ayers talk me into joining politics.
Sir, with all due respect I hope you are taking to heart the very serious and legitimate advice offered in this article.
1) Stop with all this government spending on the so-called "stimulus."
2) Why bother with health care?
Oh, and do something about the economy!
All he had to do was turn over the whole economic story to Geithner/Summers/Volker, who would keep repeating "Everything's going to be all right" as they take over Citigroup et al, break them up and sell them off, and watch the Dow rocket back to 9500. Instead he turned the economy over to Pelosi and friends, leaving Geithner and Wall Street to twist in the wind. No confidence in the financial system and certainly no confidence in the stimulus bill.
The point being, when people think of "the economy" they certainly think of Wall St; after all, the phrases "economic crisis" and "financial crisis" only became interchangeable after the Dow suddenly dropped 25% in October.
And there is a solid reason for this. If banks and businesses representing probably 80% of economic output are STILL unsure whether they will be able to get any credit from ANYONE in the next year (or ever), then for all intents and purposes the economy is headed for a cliff.
Banking confidence == economic confidence at this point. Barack Obama is off in his "era of responsibility", dreaming up plans for educating preschoolers, when he should be SOLVING the financial crisis RIGHT NOW.
And from a purely political perspective, does it not make eminent sense to intervene successfully in banking and then use the political capital generated to intervene elsewhere, as the Democrats want? If Obama fails, the Democratic agenda will be set back farther than 1994.
March 10 (Bloomberg) - China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models, helping the country extend its lead as the world's largest auto market this year.
Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S.
China has halved retail taxes on small cars and drawn up plans to give out vehicle subsidies in rural areas to revive demand after auto sales rose at the slowest pace in a decade last year. Combined with the country's wider 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package, the policies have caused General Motors Corp. to roughly double its forecast for China's nationwide auto market growth this year.
"Consumers are regaining confidence because of the government's stimulus policies," said Ricon Xia, an analyst at Daiwa Research Institute in Shanghai. "Still, vehicle sales may fluctuate in the coming months."
That's right, tax cuts in Communist China boost consumer confidence. Meanwhile, here at home . . .
"You may as well ask the Magic Eight Ball"
Yup. One term.
LOL McCain Landslide!
Palin wins it for McCain!!
What Obama and his administration should have done-and perhaps still can-is set aside other plans and focus almost myopically on the economy. Fix this, and Obama's political capital will be nearly limitless. But fix it, and fix it now.
Il Duce cannot fix the economy any more than he can fix evolution, or undersea currents. The problem is in the assumption that the ECONOMY is like a machine with cogs and gears that, with just a little nudge here and there, it can do anything one wants. But the economy is NOT a machine, any more than the weather is a machine - it cannot be controlled from the top, there is not one clever enough to know all the information it contains. The Market IS a complex, chaotic system, since it is made of the myriads of decisions made by everyone. To think that a lone or a few humans can control this monster of spontaneous order is to show a magnificent arrogance and stupidity.
I fully subscribe to the theory that the economy is a complex, chaotic system. However to think that one cannot influence a complex, chaotic system is just as foolish as thinking one can control it.
There are certainly policies and actions that can influence the economy in mostly-predictable ways. You could obviously argue that there always exists a chance that your actions will have the opposite effect, and they might. But, for instance, cutting taxes and establishing consistent and fair rules and regulations can go a long way towards enhancing the economy.
Hey Max Hats, whats the FEDERAL sales tax rate, you beautiful economic genius you. How much money are we talking about losing if we cut it?
Il Duce cannot fix the economy any more than he can fix evolution, or undersea currents. The problem is in the assumption that the ECONOMY is like a machine with cogs and gears that, with just a little nudge here and there, it can do anything one wants.
Actually the Federal Reserve and big government tamed the boom bust cycle post WWII which was brutal during the 19th Century until it climaxed in the Great Depression which spawned Il Duce and the raging genocidaires of Nazi Germany.
Part me wished the Government let the rest of the "too-big-to-fail" overleveraged financial institutions fail like Lehman Brothers did and then we'd get to live in a Post-Apocalyptic-Escape-from-New-York/Road-Warrior world where at least we wouldn't have to read the nonsense above. Obama would probably still be blame somehow though and then we'd get a real Il Duce-type who would make you long for the days of Obama.
Can we give Obama a paper bag to be president of? He might not be able to screw that up.
I want to be in a White House press conference and ask the fool if he knows what 2+2 is.
I love the example of the Chinese cutting taxes. Obama is more communist than even the communists!
That's, uh.
That was the joke.
Off topic
What dreary fucking lives these people lead.
I expect by the end of the year Obamanomics will look fairly different, and the administration will never admit they changed at all. Reagan didn't have Jimmy Carter to kick around anymore either after a few months in office, and at six months he even had a recession named after him, but he won reelection and eventual sainthood.
One difference is that Reagan's Recession was caused by checking the economy into rehab after decades of getting high on inflationary monetary policy. You'd have to be pretty gullible believe what Obama's doing is going to be as helpful to the economy in the long term.
Then again, I shouldn't be surprised considering you voted for Obama in the hopes he would end the politics of race.
Actually the Federal Reserve and big government tamed the boom bust cycle post WWII which was brutal during the 19th Century until it climaxed in the Great Depression which spawned Il Duce and the raging genocidaires of Nazi Germany.
This is among the stupidest serious posts I've seen on this board.
The Fed created the 20s boom which turned into the Great Depression, thanks to big government. Then it created the 60s boom, which ended in the 70s stagflation, despite numerous big government policies. Then it created the 90s boom, which ended in the tech crash, and the government was still large. Now it created the housing boom, which coupled with ridiculous Wall Street shell games, brought down the world economy. And big government Bush got replaced by bigger government Obama. Any guesses on how long this depression will run?
Bush-bashing can only take you so far
Clearly Olbermann and Maddow have not gotten the memo.
I assure you that Van Antwerp is not a made up name--I've been stuck with it all my life.
"Obama would probably still be blame somehow though and then we'd get a real Il Duce-type who would make you long for the days of Obama."
I'd like to have some of what you're smoking, Pedro.
SugarFree | March 11, 2009, 4:45pm | #
Off topic
What dreary fucking lives these people lead.
Help me with this one:
Also, there are many GLBTQ people who don't think our politics are in the right place
Let me see, Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgendered, and, do I really want to know what the Q stands for?
Obama isn't entirely to blame. True enough, but when you drive a tanker truck up to a burning building and then open the valves on both trailers dumping raw gasoline on the flames, well, that isn't very helpful.
Sugar, you ain't said shit.
alan,
Q is for Queer. It stands for a number of interrelated concepts.
Some aspects of the queer community identify themselves as intergendered or genderqueer, a rejection of binary gender as a social construct and a belief that they are a third gender. This can include individuals who are born intersexed and have or have not gone through corrective surgery, and those who believe that they are neither men nor women and identify as neuters.
It can also encompass genderfucking, the current designation for people who are straight in their sexual orientation, but do not represent in outward appearance their biological sex. This includes male and female crossdressers, androgynous men and women, and anyone who deliberate obscures (or problematizes) their biological sex in their daily lives.
You also see GLBTQQ now. The extra Q stands for Questioning. It is for anyone who hasn't settled on a sexual orientation yet.