The Return of the Thin White Duke

A few weeks ago, when Barack Obama started to tick back up in the polls, I joked that it would be a good time for Larry Johnson to release the "whitey tape." You remember the "whitey tape," right? Back on May 16, ex-CIA analyst and minor Plame scandal figure (he was a friend of the Plames who attacked the White House) Johnson announced that "I now have it from two three four sources (three who are close to senior Republicans) that there is video dynamite–Michelle Obama railing against 'whitey' at Jeremiah Wright's church." The tape was supposed to drop before the final primaries, but it never did.

Today, though, Johnson's back in the game!

None of my three main sources on who told me about the existence of a video recording of Michelle Obama making disparaging comments about white folks have backed off. Two of these sources are Democrats and are journalists. They were not trying to sabotage the Obama campaign. They were passing on something they believed to be true. The fact that my third source, a person who lives on the West Coast and is a Republican, has no ties whatsoever to the other two but told the same story persuaded me this "tape" exists. My Republican friend tells me that the McCain campaign intervened and requested the tape not be used.

So, we've got that cleared up.

Why did I stumble across Johnson's blog again? Well, there's a fresh new rumor that Obama is visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii (less than two weeks before the election) not because she's ailing, but because he's trying to stop the Forces of Truth from locating the evidence that he wasn't really born in America. Who was behind this?

Well, do you remember Andy Martin? Yes, it's him.

I have been issuing reports from Hawaii and we are on the streets digging for the truth. This weekend we issued our story list for Monday-Wednesday (Monday has been rescheduled—see above).

What has Obama done? Cancelled his campaign and announced he is jumping on a plane to join Andy Martin in Hawai'i. Welcome home, Barry (Obama's grandmother calls him "Barry.")

High Noon in Hawaii.

Barack Obama vs. Andy Martin. The drama builds as we move closer and closer to disclosing the dramatic truth about Barack Obama.

One reason I'm bringing this up is that I keep finding a correlation between Obama's rise in polls and the proliferation of absolutely crazy conspiracy theories about him. Case in point: Today, I talked to a conservative who was convinced that Hillary Clinton, seeing her presidential hopes vanish if Obama beats McCain, is waiting for the right moment to release a document ("real or not") proving that Obama was born in Indonesia. Nice guy, wearing a suit, completely sane. But he'd allowed himself to indulge in magical thinking about how the election can be won without actually making the case against Obama.

People like Martin and Johnson have made an Obama presidency more, not less, likely.

Comments

[R C Dean]

People like Martin and Johnson have made an Obama presidency more, not less, likely.

I would agree. They poisoned the well for anyone inquiring into Obama's past.

[sage]

So if he actually wins the rumors will start flying that he's teh devil. Right?

[ed]

One reason I'm bringing this up is that I keep finding a correlation between...

...crazy conspiracy theories and a steady paycheck?

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Is Obama really in that big of a lead? I spent about an hour last night looking over RCP numbers state by state. It appears that Obama has to flip 17 Bush ec votes to win. He looks for sure to flip NH (4), Iowa (7) and New Mexico (4) but that is only 16. He has to win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, NC or Missouri to win, and he only has a "leaning" lead in the first two while either in a dead heat or losing to McCain in the others. That does not leave a lot of margin for error. I have to agree with SIV: Obama's support in VA and Co is probably not that deep (look how fast his lead in FL folded). It's easy to see him losing both and as a result the whole thing at this point.

For the record in our lonstanding debate, I will point out that Mark Warner or Evan Bayh would have been leading in every Kerry state and would probably have VA (if Warner), Florida and Ohio won already. If Bayh had just been put on as VP then Indiana would be Dem and Obama would not have to worry about VA or Colorado...

[Episiarch]

sage, you are making me want to watch Omen III again. It's a bad movie, but it's less painful than this election.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

It's easy to see Obama losing all the toss ups on RCP. His only hope is to maintain his slight (maybe non-existent due to the Bradley effect) lead in Colorado or his bigger lead in a state that has not gone blue in decades (VA). That's pretty tight with two weeks of the Republican Noise Machine blasting full blast if you ask me.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Is Omen three the one where Damian gives it to the girl up the butt to create his heir? Classic.

[Dave Weigel]

Mr. Nice Guy - Just compare the maps at electoral-vote.com from today and from "this day in 2004." Then remember that Kerry almost won. Then think about how Obama has three times as much money as McCain and a far bigger GOTV operation.

It's possible that McCain could win every toss-up state, but nothing like that has happened in modern presidential politics.

[Episiarch]

Is Omen three the one where Damian gives it to the girl up the butt to create his heir? Classic.

Yes. Classic indeed.

[ed]

Mr. Nice Guy - Just compare the maps at electoral-vote.com from today and from "this day in 2004." Then remember that Kerry almost won.

Aha. Sorry. It's about the horse race again, isn't it. My apologies, Mr. Weigel.

[Matthew]

Sage,

So if he actually wins

Dude if he actually loses, I will be shocked out of my socks.

Yes.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Thanks Dave. I know its never happened before to have someone to run the table with the toss-ups, but I can't shake the idea that this race is different because it is the first minority candidate running for POTUS. I was living in VA when the Wilder effect occurred.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Epi
And was that the one that had the monk who had lined his apartment walls with pages of Scripture to protect himself but then a crow flies in his window and kills him? That was pretty classic too.

But not, ya know, butt sex classic.

[Episiarch]

MNG, it was a poorly executed movie but it did have its moments.

[Mo]

MNG,
According to pollster.com, VA is dark blue (Obama by 9) and CO is light blue (Obama by 7). Those two are actually bigger leads than what you'll see in WA. McCain is toast. Most of the movement now is just statistical noise. When NRO and Drudge are touting that Obama won the Nickelodeon kids poll by "only 2%", you know they see the writing on the wall*.

* Yes, serious commentators think that the Nickelodeon kids poll is meaningful because it was right the first 4 elections. This is on par with saying, "My grandmother has voted for every winning candidate since Eisenhower and she likes ________."

[Orange Line Special]

Perhaps Weigel was too busy knocking down that straw to notice this. Something's happened since then, but I haven't looked into that yet.

What Weigel should do is look at #18 in the docket and imagine if he were running for prez. Wouldn't those be reasonable demands?

[Dave Weigel]

Lonewacko, I've addressed Berg before. His filing is incoherent and lacks evidence. His last crusade was to get Bush and Cheney indicted for causing 9/11. Do you think it would have been reasonable for them to respond to this idiot?

Either you think the state of Hawai'i forged a birth certificate for Obama, or it's real.

[DannyK]

It's classic When Prophecy Fails stuff -- when your worldview is invalidated, either you modify your worldview or your loosen your grip on reality. If Dave is as amused by paranoid craziness as he seems, he's in for a very enjoyable 4-8 years.

[Geotpf]

sage | October 21, 2008, 5:13pm | #

So if he actually wins the rumors will start flying that he's teh devil. Right?

I thought he was supposed to be the anti-christ.

[zonk]

What tics me off is that I've slowly but surely lost the ability to post at NQ from all 4 IP addresses I had at my disposal.

Lemme tell ya - that's some fun stuff... You haven't had monkeys fling poo at you until you've had the zoo at NQ do it.

[Mo]

Dave,
Why the hell do you answer LW? Sisyphus concerns himself to a greater diversity of topics than LW does. He gets to deal with TheBoulderOnTheHillProblem.

[Orange Line Special]

Here's the docket I was referring to above. Download #18 and take a look at the demands: the BHO releases his college apps, "vault" birth certificate, etc. All of those are perfectly reasonable demands. Why doesn't he just put all this to rest by releasing that information to some authority?

There are three explanations:
1. He doesn't want to set legal precedent. That's unbelievable.
2. He's just trying to tie up and give false comfort to his enemies. That's possible.
3. He is indeed hiding something. That's most likely in my view.

I don't recommend spending much time on this or counting on it, but it is very suspicious.

And, for those who think the issue of whether he was born in HI has been settled due to various "fact checks", see this. I list eleven things wrong with one of those "fact checks", and there are probably more.

[brotherben]

4. It's all just a buncha whack job bullshit that isn't worth the man's time. He is kinda busy these days ya know.

[Tacos mmm...]

1. He doesn't want to set legal precedent. That's unbelievable.
2. He's just trying to tie up and give false comfort to his enemies. That's possible.
3. He is indeed hiding something. That's most likely in my view.

Berg is a troll, and you don't respond to trolls, you ignore them.

The Obama campaign is better at taking that advice than I am, I admit.

[Ugh]

Correlation does not equal causation, dude.

[Dave Weigel]

Lonewacko, I read the docket. First of all, he doesn't just "demand" things. He says:

Admit you were born in Kenya.

Admit you are a Kenya (sic) Natural Born Citizen.

Admit you are an Indonesian citizen.

The whole thing is full of such typos and contradictory nonsense. It's a classic frivolous suit.

[Kolohe]

Speaking of fact check, from the hillaryclintonforum/noquarter link above:

Mr Martin says:
"Obama did not pay any attention to his grandmother until I showed up in Honolulu. Suddenly she is the center of his attention. She is so central to his campaign that he has suspended it! But when Obama was here last summer he only visited his grandmother for an hour. One hour! Now he suspends his campaign for her?"

This is not true. Obama visited his grandmother about once a day (normally for about an hour or so - i.e. he had lunch there with different combos of Michelle Obama and his kids in tow). His trips were somewhat of a pain for the neighborhood due to street closures and having helicopters continuously flying overhead whenever he was in Makiki.

[24AheadDotCom]

Mr. Weigel:

You don't understand how these things work; for an example of how it works, see the ones here:

millerandzois.com/Plaintiffs_First_Request_for_Admissions.html

So, we realize that the answer to Admit you were born in Kenya. is "no".

Unless, of course, the answer is something else.

[MAX HATS]

Watching the Leviathan of right wing crazy wake up after 8 years of having their boy in charge is awesome to behold. They didn't mind when the government started listening to everyone's phone calls, they didn't mind when the government started throwing people in prison without charges - but now there's going to be a democrat back in charge - break out the conspiracy theories!

Question: what nefarious scheme could Obama possibly enact? Cheney and Co have made a full time job of thrashing the Constitution, and they are good at their job. What could Obama possibly do that hasn't already been done?

Goddamned lunatics. On the plus side, it's personally nice to know that Homeland Security and Secret Service are definitely going to be hiring. Once the wars end, my current bit of job security stops too.

[Orange Line Special]

I think I might add that I was Sully before it was hip to be Sully. Here's my endorsement from 2004.

Some of us are able to look ahead, some aren't.

[joe]

Then: "I now have it from two three four sources (three who are close to senior Republicans) that there is video dynamite-Michelle Obama railing against 'whitey' at Jeremiah Wright's church..."

Now: "None of my three main sources on who told me about the existence of a video recording of Michelle Obama making disparaging comments about white folks have backed off. Two of these sources are Democrats and are journalists."

Bzzt.

[joe]

MNG,

RCP calls any state with less than a ten point lead "leaning." Obama's lead in Virginia is over eight. He's over 50% in both Virgnia and Colorado.

He is also leading in every single one of the states you list, and he needs one.

[bigbigslacker]

Question: what nefarious scheme could Obama possibly enact? Cheney and Co have made a full time job of thrashing the Constitution, and they are good at their job. What could Obama possibly do that hasn't already been done?

Trash the portions the right-wingers overlooked? There is still some left. Well, I think there is. I'm gonna go check - will report back if I find anything.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"Trash the portions the right-wingers overlooked? There is still some left. Well, I think there is. I'm gonna go check - will report back if I find anything."

I don't want anybody on H&R to get me wrong: Obama and the Dems could damage liberty and well being to a great degree. My "support" for Obama is simply that there must be some rebuke for the past eight years of Bush or the GOP will just be emboldened to do more of the same. For myself, I will watch Obama closely on three areas I disagree with him on: gun rights, affirmative action, and immigration. I note that at least two of the three McCain has an equally crappy record and on one issue I am in disagreement with most libertarians (immigration).

[Mr. Nice Guy]

The Dems will in no scenario (short of alien invasion) get a filibuster proof majority so we will in effect have divided government. In fact, ironically, if McCain wins there will be more of a chance of several major "liberal" bills (that McCain agrees with, that maverick!)actually sailing through (Warner-Lieberman for example, which has no chance under Obama).

Add to this the fact that Obama knows he will be the first black president, and very much like Doug Wilder in VA (first black elected governor) he will very much pursue non-controversial things.

[Chuck]

I have to find out for myself. Time to go to Hawaii for some, uh, investigation. Yeah, that's it. If anybody needs me, I'll be on the North shore, investigatin'.

We must know,
We will know.

[joe]

Why doesn't he just put all this to rest by releasing that information to some authority?

Because some douchebag like yourself will then decide you don't like the kerning on his gall bladder MRI, and you'll have a bunch of other "why doesn't he release this" and "why doesn't he answer that question" nonsense, and it will never end.

Because you don't give a flying fuck about the truth, you just want to scare people about the...the...uh...he's...um...he's...he's...uh...he's an Arab.

[joe]

For the record in our lonstanding debate, I will point out that Mark Warner or Evan Bayh would have been leading in every Kerry state and would probably have VA (if Warner), Florida and Ohio won already.

Mark Warner is a boring-assed little pussy boy who can't give a speech and generates all the enthusiasm of unbuttered white bread toast.

Evan Bayh is a creepy, spoiled, transparently machiavellian sail-trimmer who would have spent the campaign as John McCain's Me Too.

Barack Obama is a vastly superior candidate to either of them.

[Jon H]

Why doesn't he just put all this to rest by releasing that information to some authority?

How do you know he hasn't?

Clue: You are not an authority worth releasing the documents to.

Random douchebag lawyers are not an authority with standing to demand the documents. They are irrelevant.

Just because random douchebag lawyer hasn't seen everything documented to his liking, it doesn't mean the facts have not been established proving satisfaction of the legal requirements to the relevant authorities.

[Mo]

For the record in our lonstanding debate, I will point out that Mark Warner or Evan Bayh would have been leading in every Kerry state and would probably have VA (if Warner), Florida and Ohio won already.

Warner and Bayh? Christ on a stick, why not just give Kerry a second shot?

[Pepe]

Is there a conspiracy involving obama's mother not really being a us citizen? Because if not, I fail to see why it would matter where he was born.

[highnumber]

I spent about an hour last night looking over RCP numbers state by state.

I just laughed cheese danish out of my nose.

[mantooth]

Pepe,

That's what I've been thinking. Unless there is some sort of Black-Foreign-Father citizenship-canceling loophole...

[joe]

Highnumber,

You, uh, you gonna eat that?

[highnumber]

It's yours!

[Anthony]

Of course the big mistake is reading Larry johnson's blog. I admit I do occasionally, it is the second best political humor site on the web.

I do think that HRC would love to sabotage Obama, but it is not going to happen. HRC's best result is that McCain wins, not by all that much, but more than a hair. She can say to the Democratic bigwigs that she could have beaten McCain, and stoke the left wing by thinly hinting about stolen elections.

But to be realistic, McCain lost t he election when he ran off to Washington during the Bank Panic.

[joe]

McCain lost the election when "tire gauge" failed to become a punchline. Think I can still get me one of those Obama tire gauges?

Air pressure: not a punch line.

Air space: punch line.

[Shem]

Mr. Nice Guy-Check out fivethirtyeight.com if you want decent polling data. They have all the poll porn that an addict could want. They also don't use RCP's data at all. Their statistical methodology is too questionable to include.

The Dems will in no scenario (short of alien invasion) get a filibuster proof majority

And two years ago people were saying that there was simply no way they'd pick up the seven seats they needed to get a majority in the Senate. Then they did. It's still not what I'd call a likely thing, but given the polling data for the individual Senate seats (which are running Democratic in all but three of the 11 contested races) it's not anywhere near even improbable.

[joe]

Naw, they'd need to really run the table to get to 60 this time.

They've got a pretty good chance of getting over 60 in 2012, though, and without Lieberman.

[JohnG]

"So if he actually wins the rumors will start flying that he's teh devil."

Well, actually, people have already been saying that he's the Antichrist: the great deceiver who comes promising peace, etc. I saw one on a comment section of some right-wing site earlier this morning.

BTW: How's Andy Martin doing with that lawsuit he threatened to hit Reason with if it didn't apologize for calling him an anti-Semite? Ever get filed, or has he been too busy chasing ghosts on Oahu?

[Patrick]

When you refer to Andy Martin, are you referring to Andy "moderately severe character defect manifested by well-documented ideation with a paranoid flavor and a grandiose character" Martin?

Public Record on Andy Martin:

"He is a law school graduate, but his admission to the Illinois bar was blocked in the 1970s after a psychiatric finding of "moderately severe character defect manifested by well-documented ideation with a paranoid flavor and a grandiose character."