And the Survey Says, You're Dead

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I cannot really recommend "The Left's Big Blunder," a 6700-word essay on how the media, Democrats, and other unworthies are making it look like Obama is beating McCain while the opposite is true. For one, it's 6700 words long, and you're busy. For another, it includes analysis like this.

In 1968, Richard Nixon did the exact reverse of what the Democrats are now doing. Instead of announcing bombastically that he and the Republicans had complete domination of the media and the electorate, his key campaign slogan was "The Silent Majority." Nixon knew full well that the atmosphere of the times made the Republican prospects looks pretty bleak. Youth culture and the social revolution of the 1960s were at a peak; left-wing ideology was soaring in popularity, a huge demographic of young post-war Baby-Boomers had just reached voting age and were thought to loathe the old-fashioned Republicanism; and the media had long had a serious vendetta against Nixon. Everything seemed aligned to ensure a handy victory for Humphrey and the Democrats.

1.) The "silent majority" phrase came in a speech given after Nixon was elected, not in 1968.
2.) Nobody thought Humphrey, the pathetic LBJ puppet nominated at the disastrous Chicago convention, could win in 1968 until the final week of the campaign, when he rose to a tie with Nixon, aided by Democratic voters coming home from the George Wallace independent campaign.
3.) Voters didn't like youth culture in 1968! A late summer 1968 Harris poll had 64 percent of "low-income whites," reliable Democratic voters, agreeing with the sentiment "liberals, long-hairs, and intellectuals have been running the country too long." They made a bee-line for Wallace and Nixon.

That's just once slice from a great big wedding cake of stupid. So why bring this up at all? It's the longest version of a theory I hear every day: that the polls are wrong, and that the media is brainwashing people into claiming they'll vote Obama, but they won't. (This piece was e-mailed to me more than the usual exposition of the theory.) I talked to Republicans this week who were utterly convinced that at this point in 2004, Kerry was winning as big as Obama is now. He wasn't!

None of this is to say McCain can't win, but if he starts winning, the polls would probably reflect it. I don't buy stories like this one of an "internal Obama poll" that shows Palin lighting fires among Pennsylvania voters, because… I remember the stories about the internal polls that showed Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum surging back from defeat, right before he lost by 19 points in his Senate bid.

If the Nov. 3 polls show a small Obama lead, then Obama wins, I'll be pleased that the "Bradley effect" didn't exist and that there was no unknowable conspiracy aimed at rigging the election. But it seems inevitable that we're going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud. If we're going to have a cult of the presidency to start with, that seems like a bad development.

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  1. But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud.

    Really? If Obama wins by a huge landslide of 350 or more electoral votes, as the polls seem to indicate is coming, you really think that there is “a sizable minority” that will think this was done via fraud? Are there really that many morons out there?

    I thought being in denial about losing was more of a Blue State thing.

  2. 2 RZA quotes in 24 hours from Weigel

  3. More Wu Tang references, please.

  4. well fuck me it’s like 25 hours

  5. That’s just once slice from a great big wedding cake of stupid.

    Mmmmm that is tasty. I’m going to chew it slow and savor the flavor.

  6. Are there really that many morons out there?

    Err…

    Yup!

  7. Why do you think they’re talking so much about ACORN, prolefeed? They’re laying the groundwork.

  8. “But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud. If we’re going to have a cult of the presidency to start with, that seems like a bad development.”

    It’s a good thing. If we’re going to have a cult of the presidency, you want to cancel out the effect of the cult with as many people as possible. The backers of the losing candidate will fret about “The Imperial Presidency” and its metastasing growth. You may recall how the liberals were when the Presidency was in Republican hands.

  9. When Obama slightly outperforms the polling, maybe that will knell the death of the “Bradley effect” meme.

  10. Fucking liberal media!!!

    OK, that’s pretty much the essay summed up in three words, right?

  11. They’re laying the groundwork.

    Do you have full confidence in the voting mechanisms of all 50 states, joe?

  12. “liberals, long-hairs, and intellectuals have been running the country too long.”

    Where’s my baseball bat……?

  13. Republicans are sort of like the Iraqi Sunnis. After years of propaganda exaggerating their numbers and defining them as the only real Iraqis, they’ve come to believe it. Not just believe it in an intellectual sense, but internalize it as a defining element of their identity. The ARE what ordinary, non-weirdo Iraqis are like. Seeing themselves as both dominant and normative is an important part of how they understand the world.

    Think of a guy with a bad combover or rug, who thinks no one can tell.

  14. It’s a good thing. If we’re going to have a cult of the presidency, you want to cancel out the effect of the cult with as many people as possible.

    I don’t know. It seems like negative crazy doesn’t really balance out positive crazy. It’s more like an absolute value thing, where all you really end up with is 2*(crazy) as opposed to 0*(crazy). That much crazy can’t be good.

  15. Wow, specious reasoning, unsupported claims, *and* the misapplication of psychological studies. That essay is positively cranktastic. Really, I haven’t seen such artful arrangement of barely believable yet empirical-evidence-free bullshit since, well, the 9-11 truther movement. The lesson I’m learning; if you don’t like reality, just make your own meta-reality where everything is different!

  16. Fatal flyin’ guillotine chops off ya fuckin’ head!

  17. But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud.

    Those DemocRAT partisans sure love to project.

  18. Yes, period. I have absolute and complete faith in the unerring infallability of the electoral mechanism in every state, country, ward, and precinct in America.

    That being the sole alternative to rejecting the wholly-implausible conspiracy theories about people stealing the election by filling in “Mickey Mouse” on registration forms and convincing every polling outfit in America that the race is 10-12 points more favorarable to Obama than it really is.

  19. And the survey says?

    (Kill a mutha fucka now)

  20. Republicans are Sunnis, Democrats are shiites. Who are the Kurds? Libertarians?

  21. David,

    I don’t understand your last comment AT ALL.

    Having a cult of the Presidency is a BAD thing. So if we’re going to have it, I’d imagine it’s a GOOD thing if a sizable minority believes it illegitimate (if not in itself, at least in its present incarnation).

  22. Impeach President Obama

  23. North Dakota is leaning Dem? For reals? Damn.

  24. “North Dakota is leaning Dem? For reals? Damn.”

    After McCain essentially immolating himself last night, I believe it.

  25. Look at this way, RL. The people howling “The King is a fraud! Down with the pretender!” aren’t usually democracy-minded reformers.

    They’re usually monarchists who back the new king’s cousin.

  26. Oh man… DemocRATS…

    That swung my vote, way to go.

  27. Mo – I’d say the latest poll showing that is an outlier.

    The fact remains that, as of right now, McCain has to win all “toss-up” states, Virginia AND either NM or CO.

  28. Buh..buh..ACORN! FRAUD!

  29. BDB,

    The libertarians all moved to Jordan. Who can blame them?

  30. TAO – There’s actually another poll from North Dakota showing a tiny Obama lead. I feel like I can understand this, coming from Delaware, another tiny state no one gives a goddamn about. Obama actually campaigned in ND, ran ads there, hired staff. It feels like McCain is taking them for granted. A little attention goes a long way.

    If you look at how McCain’s Michigan numbers have collapsed since he quit the state, there’s another example.

  31. It’s only one poll, though. Best not to make a big deal out of it.

  32. I was reading my paper’s obits page this morning and I got all the way to Tony Orlando before I realized it was an ACORN registration list. Fool me once…

  33. I think there will be a few red states that go blue for no apparent reason that will leave the pundits horribly confused. Just by bet for election night.

  34. Does anyone know what expected voter turnout (it terms of raw numbers) is supposed to be this year? I see Barr pulling 1.3 percent on average and I’m wondering how that translates.

    Dave Weigel – good point, I wasn’t aware of the second poll. I’m still skeptical about ND, though, given the trends.

  35. joe — ACORN, schmacorn. Is anyone sane really going to look at a map like this after the election:

    electoral.com

    and say to themselves, yeah, if they hadn’t stolen the election in Florida and Ohio and Nevada and Missouri and North Dakota and North Carolina and either Colorado, Virginia, or Maine, OUR socialist would have won this fair and square.

    I mean, a few people, sure. But that many states? And with the last few of them not being all that close? And with so many Red staters thinking, wow, I really had to hold my nose to vote for our sumbitch, the one I voted against in the primary?

    I think the whinage is more concentrated in Team Blue. But, hey, we’ll see.

  36. I used to think liberals were the ones who bitched about losing elections, too, prolefeed. But it’s not even election day yet and it seems I’ve been proven wrong.

  37. TAO,
    Even if it is an outlier, the fact that ND is close enough where an outlier could show an Obama lead is pretty remarkable. I mean, you’ll never see a Utah, Arizona or Alaska poll show Obama with a lead, outlier or not. Not to mention, it’s not even a Zogby poll, so it might be right.

  38. Sometimes the tallest frauds grow from the smallest ACORNs.

  39. But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud. If we’re going to have a cult of the presidency to start with, that seems like a bad development.

    I don’t understand the reasoning behind that last sentence at all. IF we’re going to have “a cult of the presidency”, then the more people who think the election was a fraud, the better. State it in the reverse and see if you agree that “if we’re going to have a cult of the presidency, we need everyone to believe the election was legitimate.” That sounds like a good way to feed the cult of personality and the idea of an imperial presidency.

  40. Mo, in the Zogby polls, McCain’s trailing Obama in NY.

  41. Isn’t this the THIRD election in a row where a sizeable minority will believe it was stolen by fraud, not the second?

  42. Crap. That s/h/b “McCain’s leading…”

    Move along. Nothing to see here…

  43. “The fact remains that, as of right now, McCain has to win all “toss-up” states, Virginia AND either NM or CO.”

    If Obama pulls FL then he won’t even be worried about VA, NM or Co…

  44. A little attention goes a long way.

    But will he send them flowers the next day?

  45. Mo, in the Zogby polls, McCain’s trailing leading Obama in NY.

    Seriously? Whenever I feel I’m too harsh on Zogby, something makes me realize that I am not being harsh enough. That being said, I totally want to take him with me to Vegas during March Madness or Bowl Season. I could make a killing at the sports book doing the opposite of what he recommends.

  46. VA, NM and Co are not even really toss-up states lately, they’ve been consistently blue for weeks now.

    Toss up states are FL, OH, Indiana…

  47. Meanwhile, back in the real world:

    DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) – The race is over as far as Ireland’s biggest bookmaker is concerned.

    Paddy Power PLC says it is so sure Barack Obama will win the U.S. presidential election next month that it paid off Thursday on all bets it had taken backing the Democratic candidate. It said it shelled out more than euro1 million, about $1.35 million.

    “We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama – your winnings await you,” the company said in a statement.

    Paddy Power has a long tradition of winning free publicity by paying off early, particularly on political contests – and it also has a recent record of getting the result spectacularly wrong.

  48. “. | October 16, 2008, 3:47pm | #

    ‘A little attention goes a long way.’

    But will he send them flowers the next day?”

    Better than flowers, He’s gonna send a shitpot slam full of FREE money. WOOOOOHOOOOOO!

  49. Zogby took some hell for some pols showing the world hated Americans and Israel, so maybe he feels he has to do these crazy pols to win back conservatives?

  50. The betting markets don’t lie. Right now, Dem sweep bets are selling for $89.7, while Rep pres, Dem congress bets are selling for a measly $22.

  51. Mo, no – it was a flubbed joke. Every presidential poll by Zogby I’ve seen this election has been about +3 (R) to +6 (R) compared with other polls.

  52. BP,

    Oh ok. Does it say more about me or Zogby that I found you statement believable.

  53. But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud

    The only difference being this time there are significant numbers of actual crimes being committed in the areas of vote fraud and campaign finance fraud.

    But hey, if Tom Brokaw does a story centered around memos proving Obama belonged to Al Qaeda and they turn out to be crude forgeries done in MS Word, we can all rest assured that six months later he’ll be on a cable channel, suing his former employer.

  54. The Dead Collector: Bring out yer dead.
    [a man puts a body on the cart]
    Large Man with Dead Body: Here’s one.
    The Dead Collector: That’ll be ninepence.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I’m not dead.
    The Dead Collector: What?
    Large Man with Dead Body: Nothing. There’s your ninepence.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I’m not dead.
    The Dead Collector: ‘Ere, he says he’s not dead.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Yes he is.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I’m not.
    The Dead Collector: He isn’t.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Well, he will be soon, he’s very ill.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I’m getting better.
    Large Man with Dead Body: No you’re not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment.
    The Dead Collector: Well, I can’t take him like that. It’s against regulations.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I don’t want to go on the cart.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Oh, don’t be such a baby.
    The Dead Collector: I can’t take him.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I feel fine.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Oh, do me a favor.
    The Dead Collector: I can’t.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won’t be long.
    The Dead Collector: I promised I’d be at the Robinsons’. They’ve lost nine today.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Well, when’s your next round?
    The Dead Collector: Thursday.
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I think I’ll go for a walk.
    Large Man with Dead Body: You’re not fooling anyone, you know. Isn’t there anything you could do?
    The Dead Body That Claims It Isn’t: I feel happy. I feel happy.
    [the Dead Collector glances up and down the street furtively, then silences the Body with his a whack of his club]
    Large Man with Dead Body: Ah, thank you very much.
    The Dead Collector: Not at all. See you on Thursday.
    Large Man with Dead Body: Right.

  55. I’d be surprised if McCain won, but I’m not dancing a jig no matter who gets elected.

  56. Punks in the back.

    It would at least be funny if Republicans all of a sudden cared about voting irregularity. They’d have their own little 9/11 Truthers wing, but with the added entertainment of it being racially tinged. That would be awesome. You know, if you’re an anarchist.

  57. I’d be surprised if McCain won, but I’m not dancing a jig no matter who gets elected.

    Get some gumption. I am leaving the country no matter who is elected!

  58. Andy–

    My thoughts exactly. It’s already entertaining.

  59. But what are we going to do when it’s over?

    Bitching about Obama’s tax schemes isn’t going to be nearly as fun as bitching about the election.

  60. prolefeed, I give you…TallDave.

    TallDave’s a Sunni.

  61. “Get some gumption. I am leaving the country no matter who is elected!”

    I live in Oklahoma, one hell of a poor state. The feds don’t really pay attention to where I live, so why move? Oh yeah. It’s Oklahoma. Right. So where can I go that’s relatively inexpensive and has nude beaches?

  62. The only difference being this time there are significant numbers of actual crimes being committed in the areas of vote fraud and campaign finance fraud.

    That’s funny, I recall exactly the same thing being said just before the 2006 elections.

    Followed almost immediately by USAttorneyGate – you know, the one where US Attornies were fired for not prosecuting bogus charges of election fraud? Accompanied by some really entertaining opinions by judges throwing out the cases that were pursued?

    I like the judge in Minnesota, who wrote that the couldn’t even understand what the prosecutor’s theory of the crime was.

    But no, seriously, this time it’s real. Mickey Mouse and people with the same names as the Dallas Cowboys are going to show up on election day, and steal the election.

  63. Now it turns out that not only is Joe the Plumber not really a plumber, not only does he make nowhere near $250,000 a year, but he also owes back taxes to the IRS.

    They GOP vetted him about as well as they vetted Sarah Palin.

  64. Why Certainly,

    Idunno. I am going to no nudity, no alcohol and lots of beach.

  65. . | October 16, 2008, 3:33pm | #
    I was reading my paper’s obits page this morning and I got all the way to Tony Orlando before I realized it was an ACORN registration list. Fool me once…

    Don’t even kid, man. Tony is NEVAH gonna die!

  66. TallDave | October 16, 2008, 4:11pm | #
    But it seems inevitable that we’re going to get our second consecutive president that a sizable minority of the country will feel was elected through fraud

    The only difference being this time there are significant numbers of actual crimes being committed in the areas of vote fraud and campaign finance fraud.

    But hey, if Tom Brokaw does a story centered around memos proving Obama belonged to Al Qaeda and they turn out to be crude forgeries done in MS Word, we can all rest assured that six months later he’ll be on a cable channel, suing his former employer.

    That is McCain’s problem in a nutshell. No Roves on his high and mighty team doing false flag operations to lure the media into doing stupid things like Rather in ’04.

    If I was running the show, I would put out some fake e-mails, DNA tests, etc., showing that Palin’s eldest daughter was impregnated by Palin’s eldest son, and he was sent away to the military to keep them apart. Get that in the left blogosphere, the nastiness from late August reemerges for the Republicans to exploit again.

    But McCain thinks his shit don’t stink, so even at his worse, he is tepid.

  67. Joe,

    Republicans are sort of like the Iraqi Sunnis. After years of propaganda exaggerating their numbers and defining them as the only real Iraqis,. . . Seeing themselves as both dominant and normative is an important part of how they understand the world.

    That is the most bizarre analogy you’ve ever tried to pull off. Any examples of the propaganda come to mind? And not being a Rep. how would you know how “they understand the world” ? Projecting? Fantasizing? You parody yourself.

  68. Now it turns out that not only is Joe the Plumber not really a plumber, not only does he make nowhere near $250,000 a year, but he also owes back taxes to the IRS.

    Note to self: Never, ever let myself be used as an example by any sort of political campaign. Between this and the Malkin stalking of the SCHIP kid, you’re not safe to have all of your dirty laundry aired on national news.

  69. Not only does he owe taxes, he’s tangentially related to the keating affair:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/02217/845

    Not quite the level of Palin’s incestuous children, but entertaining nonetheless.

  70. Holy shit, McCain has bad luck.

  71. Now it turns out that not only is Joe the Plumber not really a plumber, not only does he make nowhere near $250,000 a year, but he also owes back taxes to the IRS.

    Per the story you linked, it’s about $1200 to the state of Ohio, not the feds.

  72. Holy shit, McCain has bad luck.

    No kidding. The other day, I said that I’d love to play poker with John McCain because he has a noticeable tell when he lies (the lizard tongue thing). Combined with his bad luck, I would love to play some high stakes Hold ‘Em with Sen. McCain.

  73. Yeah, my mistake.

  74. So is his campaign not only worse than Dole, but as bad as Dukakis at this point?

  75. Not only does he owe taxes, he’s tangentially related to the keating affair:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/02217/845

    Not quite the level of Palin’s incestuous children, but entertaining nonetheless.

    Remember when Democrats were pissed off when people dug into the poster family from Maryland for SCHIP?

    Those were the days.

  76. Transcript from a taped interview, State Patril Station #37, WASILLA Alaska, May 17 2008.

    Officer Davis: What’s your name son?
    Levi Johnston: Levi, Levi Johnston, sir.
    Officer Davis: Levi, do you know what mess of trouble you are in?
    Levi Johnston: It’s not my car sir.
    Officer Davis: Your finger prints were all over those little baggies. You are are looking at 15 to 30 years, son.
    Levi Johnston: Shit, I think I’m going to hurl.
    Officer Davis: I wont you to look in the break room over there, what do you see.
    Levi Johnston: A girl, ’bout my age.
    Officer Davis: Do you think she is pretty?
    Levi Johnston: Sure. I would, uhm, you know. She’s not your daughter is she (nervously)?
    Officer Davis: No son. That’s the Governor’s daughter. I tell you what, boy, if you are willin’ to walk down the aisle with that little thing, we can forget this little business ever happened.
    Levi Johnston: So instead of the slammer, I get to slam her?
    Officer Davis: That’s right. Today is your lucky day.

  77. link for the “Joe not even a plumber”?

  78. North Dakota is leaning Dem? For reals?

    It’s been flipping back and forth for weeks. So has Missouri.

  79. Let me set the record straight, I was just a young lad of 8 when Charles Keating was Bombing those S&L’s.

    Charles is just this guy, you know?

  80. link for the “Joe not even a plumber”?

    I read somewhere he’s not licensed.

  81. Is that a requirement where he works?

  82. “No kidding. The other day, I said that I’d love to play poker with John McCain because he has a noticeable tell when he lies (the lizard tongue thing). Combined with his bad luck, I would love to play some high stakes Hold ‘Em with Sen. McCain.”

    McCain’s tell is when he just starts repeating meaningless phrases over and over again. That’s how you know his heart is not in it. And that’s when you go all-in with him.

    “My friend, I see your bet and raise you. I raise you. And when I win your money the world will know your names. They will know your names. I know how to win a hand of poker. I’ve won hands of poker before. I’ll do it. I’ll win this hand.”

  83. Republicans are sort of like the Iraqi Sunnis. After years of propaganda exaggerating their numbers and defining them as the only real Iraqis, they’ve come to believe it. Not just believe it in an intellectual sense, but internalize it as a defining element of their identity. The ARE what ordinary, non-weirdo Iraqis are like. Seeing themselves as both dominant and normative is an important part of how they understand the world.

    Nah…Obama is the black guy running…if I did not think he was a socialist i would vote for him just so I could vote for a black guy.

    Fundamentally Obama is left of the voting public.

  84. Don’t even kid, man. Tony Orlando is NEVAH gonna die!

    Well, they did find him face-down at the crack of dawn…

  85. alan,

    What’s a state patril?

  86. That, my friend, is a typo of the word ‘patrol’ from a poor, underpaid state employee in Alaska who transcribed the tape recording because Officer Davis forgot to put a posted note stating: Erase, Immaterial Evidence On The Tape.

  87. Nah…Obama is the black guy running…if I did not think he was a socialist i would vote for him just so I could vote for a black guy.

    Last I checked, joshua, you voted for a socialist twice. W nationalized banks, which is pretty much out of socialism 101.

  88. Speaking of conspiracies, could it be that Hit and Run is a conspiracy to discredit libertarian thought

  89. BDB wrote: “Isn’t this the THIRD election in a row where a sizeable minority will believe it was stolen by fraud, not the second?”

    Yep! The GOP just couldn’t put their fingers on the fraud in 1992, apart from maybe blaming Perot, so they had this rage thing going on for 8 years without anything substantial to point to, just inarticulate blubbering. “Slick! Affairs! Paula Jones! Mena! Crack vials! Babies with black prostitutes! Fleeen! Arrrrgh! Rapture me, Jesus!”

    But they certainly saw him as illegitimate.

    This time, based on the trial run in 2004, they’re setting up the rationale for 8 years of paranoid bullshit.

  90. lefiti | October 16, 2008, 8:13pm | #
    Speaking of conspiracies, could it be that Hit and Run is a conspiracy to discredit libertarian thought

  91. Regarding earlier comments:

    1) “liberals, long-hairs, and intellectuals have been running the country too long.”

    If anti-intellectualism sustains itself (e.g. Bush) then I don’t know what to think. It’s hard to think about people who don’t think. That is a true threat rather than a fabricated one.

    2) I’m in Vegas for the next month, and you bet your ass I’m betting on the presidency. It’s better than investing in the market, for sure.

    3) I’m getting the hell out of this country. Bought a plane ticket to Europe yesterday. One-way.

    I think there’s little left to say when citizens of a country are not only shamed by the actions of the country but simply cannot stand it any longer. I’m not waiting for the ship to sink. America, I’m dumping you.

  92. lefiti | October 16, 2008, 8:13pm | #
    Speaking of conspiracies, could it be that Hit and Run is a conspiracy to discredit libertarian thought

    That could be the case. I’ll ask around and get back to you on that question.

    (Reason ate the original post).

  93. 3) I’m getting the hell out of this country. Bought a plane ticket to Europe yesterday. One-way.

    I think there’s little left to say when citizens of a country are not only shamed by the actions of the country but simply cannot stand it any longer. I’m not waiting for the ship to sink. America, I’m dumping you.

    I don’t understand the sentiment as well. I suppose in a situation of hyperinflation or the like I could follow suit, but only in reluctant and dire circumstances.

  94. “Why do you think they’re talking so much about ACORN, prolefeed? They’re laying the groundwork.”

    Kind of like the Dems angsting the past few months about the “Bradley Effect”.

    “Republicans are sort of like the Iraqi Sunnis. After years of propaganda exaggerating their numbers and defining them as the only real Iraqis, they’ve come to believe it. Not just believe it in an intellectual sense, but internalize it as a defining element of their identity. The ARE what ordinary, non-weirdo Iraqis are like. Seeing themselves as both dominant and normative is an important part of how they understand the world.”

    Take that back in time, how does that not describe the Democrats reaction to the elections of ’94, ’00, & ’04?

    If the Republicans are Sunnis, does that not make the Dems Shi’ites (Libertarians the Kurds?). The country most associated with Shi’ites is Iran. The real power is held in Iran by the clergy. Obama is now the leader of Democrats, therefore Obama is an AYATOLLAH!!!

  95. Matthew,

    Are you kidding me?

    Any examples of the propaganda come to mind?

    Uh, every issue of National Review – no, wait, every daily issue of National Review Online – between October 2001 and January 2005.

    Are you kidding me? John Kerry looks French, Tom Delay thought the Democrats would hold their convention in America, Arugula, swiss cheese on a steak sub, Lambeau Field, great big maps showing big empty states in red…yeah, I’m the deluded one here. Republicans never claimed they were more American. How silly of me.

  96. John H.,

    This time, based on the trial run in 2004, they’re setting up the rationale for 8 years of paranoid bullshit.

    I don’t know. On the one hand, I can certainly see your point. On the other, the public was very closely divided in 1992, 2000, and 2004. They’re not evenly divided this year. This is going to be something we haven’t seen in a long time – a blowout. The Democrats are going to pick up a huge number of seats in both houses of Congress.

    Karl Rove, during those couple of years he was dreaming of the Permanent Republican Majority, made a comment about how an aggressive animal becomes docile after being castrated. I think he may have had a point – though he was a bit confused about who’s the goat, and who’s the farmer.

  97. MJ,

    The only people I’ve seen pushing the “Bradley Effect” meme are Republicans. The Democrats have all been refuting its existence. Heck, I saw Douglas Wilder himself, the guy who’s always pointed to as the prime example of the Bradely Effect, on MSNBC today, explaining that there really was no Bradley Effect in his race, and how black candidates like Harold Ford and Ron Kirk in Texas outperformed the polls.

    Take that back in time, how does that not describe the Democrats reaction to the elections of ’94, ’00, & ’04? It doesn’t describe the Democrats at all in any of those elections. No Democrats ran a “we’re down-home real ‘Mericans, not Euro-weenies” campaigns in any of those years. In fact, they were fighting off such a message from the Republicans in each of those years. Remember? John Kerry got good cheese on his sandwich and windsurfs; Al Gore was raised in the Watergate; Bill Clinton is “the enemy of orindary Americans.”

    All hail the Obamatollah!

  98. “We are just months away from what would be a massive international story that will reverberate for decades. Senator Barack Obama, an African American, is the favorite to be the next president of the United States. An Obama presidency immediately changes, literally and figuratively, the face America presents to the world. Winning the presidency, however, will require Obama to continue to walk a very fine racial tightrope that requires his silence on race-based issues facing the country. His fear is that there are enough White voters who will, if properly primed, get cold feet and resist the urge to vote for him. The racial reality in which Obama campaigns is unfortunate for the country because it appears that the opportunity to engage in a serious, solutions-focused discussion of America’s racial ills will be left by the roadside as the country drives toward the next inauguration. This is an important opportunity missed and one which should be lamented.”-We are just months away from what would be a massive international story that will reverberate for decades. Senator Barack Obama, an African American, is the favorite to be the next president of the United States. An Obama presidency immediately changes, literally and figuratively, the face America presents to the world. Winning the presidency, however, will require Obama to continue to walk a very fine racial tightrope that requires his silence on race-based issues facing the country. His fear is that there are enough White voters who will, if properly primed, get cold feet and resist the urge to vote for him. The racial reality in which Obama campaigns is unfortunate for the country because it appears that the opportunity to engage in a serious, solutions-focused discussion of America’s racial ills will be left by the roadside as the country drives toward the next inauguration. This is an important opportunity missed and one which should be lamented” – Michael Fauntroy

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-fauntroy-phd

    “Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has revived Democratic fears of a “Bradley effect” by suggesting that some Americans who claim to support Barack Obama will end up voting against him because he is black.

    While campaigning for Obama in Iowa Tuesday, Sebelius was asked why the election is so close.

    “Have any of you noticed that Barack Obama is part African-American?” the Democrat said. “That may be a factor. All the code language, all that doesn’t show up in the polls. And that may be a factor for some people.”

    http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/17/sebelius-revives-fears-of-bradley-effect-with-race-comment/

    Don’t bullshit on stuff that can easily checked, joe.

  99. “Bought a plane ticket to Europe yesterday.”

    Hope you didn’t do that expecting to go somewhere where the government won’t spy on you and restrict your rights to free speech.

    Whatever bullshit the the Shrub Administration has pulled (and it’s plenty) the good ol’ USofA has a long way to go before it gets to the level of of surveillance and restriction of free speech that Eurotrash countries practice. There is, in fact, no right to “free speech” in most Euro contries in the sense that it is meant in the US.

    Example, almost all Euro countries have established state churches with tax money going to support said churches. Exception, France, where a crazy super secular government imposes restrictions on the practice of religion in the name of social harmony while it channels funds to support the maintenance of Catholic churches and cathedrals because they are important cultural and historical assets.

    But, hey, if ya go nuthin’ ta hide ya got nuthin’ to wurry ’bout, right? And hey someone else’ll pay your medical bills.

    Course it shows how far we’ve sunk when we’ve gone from the “shining city on the hill” to “America, just doesn’t suck as bad as the rest of the world.”

    But, what the fuck, don’t let the screen door hit you in the ass on the way out.

  100. Uh, MJ?

    The first article you quoted has absolutely nothing to do with the Bradley Effect, and the second is Fox News spinning her words.

    EPIC FAIL and FAIL.

  101. Kreel,

    One of the guys who has been joking over the last few days about leaving the country is in one of the Armed Services and doesn’t really have much choice about it.

  102. Yeh, but I wasn’t replying to him.

    Just pointing out that there may be many reasons to move to Europe, but civil liberties and free speech are not among them.

  103. And you made a good point about the bullshit that Europeans have to put up with in their governments. Many of whom complain bitterly about
    it, their righteous elites and the media that pretend Europe is one grand milk maiden’s paradise to me, while others are pathetic chauvinist living in a bullfrog’s continually escalating sauna.

  104. props for the wu-tang reference

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