Bye Bye Obama?

From The Sunday Telegraph in London, a chronicle of a political death foretold? The Obama campaign is losing, and isn't listening to advice on how to reverse this trend. Some highlights:

The Democratic presidential candidate's slump in the polls has sparked pointed private criticism that he is squandering a once-in-a-generation chance to win back the White House…

Party elders are also studying internal polling material which warns the Obama camp that his true standing is worse than it appears in polls because voters lie to polling companies about their reluctance to vote for a black candidate. The phenomenon is known in the US as the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley, a black candidate for governor of California who lost after leading comfortably in polls…

Other Democrats are openly mocking of Mr Obama's much vaunted "50-state strategy", in which he spends money campaigning throughout the US in the hope that it will force Mr McCain to divert funds to previously safe states. Critics say a utopian belief in bringing the nation together has trumped the cold electoral calculus that is necessary to triumph in November.

Doug Schoen, a former pollster for Bill Clinton, last week declared it insanity not to concentrate resources on the swing states.

The Democratic strategist said: "My Republican friends think its mad. Before Sarah Palin came along we were investing money in Alaska, for Christ's sake, that could have been spent in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The whole thing here.

Comments

[Bingo]

Should be an entertaining November!

[Chrispy]

Good riddance. Hopefully nobody will vote for McCain, either.

[Elemenope]

Momentary hiccup, party orthodox panic!

News at 11.

Please. We won't have any idea whether things are working or not until the Palin business gets sorted. Till then, sussing out what is causing what trends should be reasonably impossible.

[Bostondreams]

'Other Democrats are mocking..'

Yeah, they did that in the primary too. They were wrong then...

As an aside, if this is how the McCain camp acts when they are winning (lies, damned lies, and more damned lies), imagine how they would be if they were losing..

[joe]

1. Why didn't we hear anything about the "Bradley effect" when he was up 5?

2. Isn't "Unnamed Democratic Consultant Mocks 50 State Strategy" a story from the summer of 2006?

3. Michael Young. Predictions about democratic elections. 'Nuff said.

[BDB]

Unnamed Democratic consultants=Red Sox fans in 2004.

[haha]

Yes.

Because 1. Democratic party elders and strategists are so great at winning elections! Remember that time when Presidents Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry won the elec...oh wait.

2. The polls were such great predictors of what actually happened during the primary season that I'll believe everything they say! Go polls!

[Andy]

First, determining the "Bradley effect" should be simple by looking at the primary polls. Or maybe polls just aren't accurate.

Second, isn't there a point when you can spend too much money in a state? I mean how commercials do they think people can take? Considering that Obama is losing when the people are on his side in feeling and on the issues, i would say it's a personality problem that spending money isn't going to solve. But the consultants get paid more, so they know more, right?

[Mad Max]

A different *Reason* take on the Bradley Effect can be found here.

I love how the Sunday Telegraph is wetting its pants - excuse me, *trousers* - about the possibility that a Republican might win an American election.

[Elemenope]

I love how the Sunday Telegraph is wetting its pants - excuse me, *trousers* - about the possibility that a Republican might win an American election.

I think it is reasonable to pardon the rest of the populated world for worrying that we might actually be stupid enough to inflict four more years of as-bad-or-worse foreign policy than the last eight.

They will be affected, in some ways more directly than you or I, by the lever we pull. Consequently, they get to give a shit, and their opinion is legitimate to air.

[BDB]

Harold Ford, in 2006, in a southern state, did not suffer a Bradley Effect--in fact he over performed his polls. He still lost, but he was expected to lose, and he lost by LESS than expected.

I think people are honest now.

[Mad Max]

Ah, I forgot that President Obama would pursue a humble foreign policy and never mess up foreign countries in pursuit of a Messianic impulse to reform the world.

And if he does, he will do it in a nice, multicultural way.

[joe]

First, determining the "Bradley effect" should be simple by looking at the primary polls. Or maybe polls just aren't accurate.

Interesting fact: Obama outperformed the polls in more primary contests than he underperformed. You never hear about this, because NH looms so large in the campaign narrative, and he underperformed considerably in that one.

Maybe there is still a Bradley Effect that will show up in November, but there was none in the Democratic primary contest.

[BDB]

Maybe there is still a Bradley Effect that will show up in November, but there was none in the Democratic primary contest.

West Virginia and Kentucky voters were refreshingly honest in being racist, for example.

[KG]

McCain's lead, whatever it is (if it even is), will dissolve about 10 minutes into the first debate. Right now, it's Obama vs Palin and for a whole lot of people, Palin is much easier to relate to, so she wins that contest. When people realize, again, that it is Obama vs McCain, Obama will pull ahead.

[jtuf]

Peggy Noonan, the former Reagan speechwriter, blamed the defection of women voters from Mr Obama on the atom bomb of ritual abuse by left-wing bloggers and Democratic officials, painting Mrs Palin as a bad mother and religious weirdo.

Ms Noonan wrote: "The snobbery of it, the meanness of it, reminded the entire country, for the first time in a decade, what it is they don't like about the Left."

I think this is the biggest factor. For the past year, Obama and "non-partisan" left have mentioned "unity" in just about every speach. The attacks on Palin were rather sudden and personal. A couple of them, like the library incident, were disproven. They undid much of the goodwill that took Obama months to build up. If it wasn't for the War on Drugs, McCain-Palin would have a good shot at my vote.

[BDB]

Peggy Noonan, the same one who said what a terrible choice Palin was off camera?

Ok.

[Orange Line Special]

Everything in the article is a lie, and I urge the Democrats not to believe what strongly appears to be a planted article from the McCain campaign. Barack will win, and win handily! In fact, there's absolutely no way he can lose.

Don't believe the McHaters!

[joe]

Note that KG's point is not that Obama is going to wipe the floor with McCain in the debate. I think Obama will win, but not a Kerry-Bush win.

He's making a much more subtle point: the debates will put the focus back on McCain. Even the Republican partisans say - no, check that, ESPECIALLY the Republican partisans LOUDLY say - that is was excitement surrounding Palin that improved the GOP's chances. Ever seen an election where a running mate was decisive? Whenever it's been Obama-McCain, Obama has led.

During the convention, Republicans were openly saying "It's too bad they couldn't flip the ticket." Did it occur to anyone that this is a bad thing?

[adina]

If neither one gets enough votes, can Pigasus still win?

[BDB]

"Did it occur to anyone that this is a bad thing?"

Ask Lloyd Bentsen. I'm convinced he would have been President from 1989-1993 had that ticket been reversed.

[Lefiti]

President Palin. Has a nice ring.

[joe]

BDB,

I'm convinced he would have been President from 1989-1993 had that ticket been reversed.

Well, if he'd been the nominee, they wouldn't have run the same campaign. They would have run a Flip-Flopping Senator campaign.

[BDB]

But Bentsen would have won Texas (he already beat George Sr. there once, had deeper roots) and thats a hell of a lot of electoral votes.

[joe]

BDB,

What does your "Red Sox fans in 2004" comparison mean?

[mpc]

"Ask Lloyd Bentsen. I'm convinced he would have been President from 1989-1993 had that ticket been reversed."

I asked him. He said don't bother me I'm trying to decompose.

[Jim Walsh]

If it wasn't for the War on Drugs, McCain-Palin would have a good shot at my vote.

Well, speaking for myself, if it were'nt for the war on drugs thing, the Iraqi thing, the collaboration with Feingold thing, the temper thing, the myth-of-a-maverick thing, the general inability to speak articulately thing, the age thing, the bimbo-for-a-running-mate thing...

[the living joe]

1. Oh no, here we go again.

2. I'm scared.

3. But I'll still post Obamaganda no one with half a brain would believe.

[Lefiti]

McCain will win, and the left will be as amazed as it was when Nixon, Reagan, and Bush won. We are a profoundly anti-intellectual people, yet somehow we muddle through. Palin may be pushing the envelope, though. Her dimwitted scoial convervatism may give the most fervent right-wing populist pause. Still, McCain will win. No dount about it. Maybe if Obama weren't black and had a normal name...

[BDB]

"What does your "Red Sox fans in 2004" comparison mean?"

I'm not a fan myself, but I know a few, and in 2004 despite the fact they were having a good season it was OH NOES! WE WILL NEVER WIN! WE ARE DOOMED TO LOSE I SAY! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED! THE YANKEES WILL BEAT US!"

Kind of like the Democrats this year.

The Republicans are the Yankees. "We always win! ALWAYS! No one will beat us, EVAR!"

[joe]

I love it when people can't even try to point out anything wrong with my argument, but tell me I'm terrified.

[cunnivore]

I'm convinced he would have been President from 1989-1993 had that ticket been reversed.

Perhaps...but he would have been utterly destroyed by Pierre Du Pont in 1992.

[BDB]

Of course the Red Sox won the World Series.

[cunnivore]

Apparently you love yourself, joe, since your point #3 was essentially "Michael Young! Bah!"

[joe]

Republicans spent how many months saying, "Yeah, well, ask Mike Dukakis about have a lead in the polls. Ask John Kerry about having a lead in the polls."

Now, their guy gets a convention bounce, and YOU DEMOCRATS ARE PANICKED! YES YOU ARE! YES YOU ARE!

DON'T YOU TRY THAT LOGIC AND EVIDENCE THING ON ME! PANICKED, I TELLS YA!

[cunnivore]

OK, so are the Libertarians the Rays or the Pirates in your analogy?

[joe]

"Michael Young! Bah!" is probably the strongest of all of my arguments.

This is the guy who not only predicted an Arab Spring would sweep the Middle East in 2005, but was actually doing an endzone dance and lecturing people about how wrong they were to say it wouldn't happen.

[cunnivore]

joe | September 13, 2008, 8:55pm | #
1. Why didn't we hear anything about the "Bradley effect" when he was up 5?

2. Isn't "Unnamed Democratic Consultant Mocks 50 State Strategy" a story from the summer of 2006?

3. Michael Young. Predictions about democratic elections. 'Nuff said.

I'm not seeing any evidence or logic there. Two non sequiturs and an ad hominem, yes.

[Ben1]

Doesn't matter one whit. Nothing is going to change; we'll stay at war, we'll still have ridiculous numbers of military bases, deep debt and consistently in the red budgets, the constitution will continue to be ignored, personal liberties will be further crushed any time they interfere with any government goal (or if they can serve as a stepping stone to power.)

As long as we tolerate the massively corrupt and wholly unauthorized political system in this country, the people will continue to elect precisely the same evildoers and the status quo will remain unchanged except for the extent to which it is naturally corrosive (that is, debt will increase, liberties will decrease, power consolidation will increase, etc.)

Discussing presidential elections as if they were consequential is just a sign you don't understand what has happened to you.

The fact that Reason, of all rags, encourages such discourse can be no less than a source of great amusement to those in power.

[joe]

Picked a week and random in early 2005, and found the first Michael Young post.

Will Bashar Survive?
Posted on March 12, 2005, 1:38am | Michael Young
One of the subtexts of the anti-Syrian protests in Lebanon, and the beginning of a Syrian military withdrawal from the country, is what this will mean for the Syrian regime in the future. Will Bashar Assad survive? In Amman and Riyadh, I hear, they recently gave the regime only a few months more, and that was before the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the start of the Lebanese crisis.

[cunnivore]

"Michael Young! Bah!" is probably the strongest of all of my arguments.

1. Michael Young didn't write the article you're attacking.

2. Even if he did, you should evaluate the argument on its merits, not those of the writer. Even broken clocks are right twice a day.

[BDB]

"OK, so are the Libertarians the Rays or the Pirates in your analogy?"

Makes enough sense for me.

[joe]

cunnivore,

You should have the stones to post under a consistent screen name.

[Deus ex Machina]

Libertarians are Montreal Expos fans in the year 2004.

[BDB]

Nah, Montreal Expos fans are the Green Party.

[cunnivore]

Sorry, joe, this is third-generation blogfare. I melt in and out of the lurking population so as to avoid the ad hominating tactics of the oppressors.

[BDB]

It is from the Daily Telegraph though, which, IIRC, is a Tory rag in Britain.

[joe]

1. Michael Young picked this story, out of the seven billion published today on the state of the race, to blog.

2. I did evaluate the story on its merits. It's a Democratic DC lifer consultant from past presidential elections making exactly the same arguments that came out of that font of wisdom in 2005 and 2006, about how stupid the Dean/Obama campaign strategy was, and how it was gong to fail in 2006. Oh, and doing so anonymously. Not impressed.

[joe]

May 11, 2006

BLITZER: Very quickly, is Howard Dean in trouble?

BEGALA: No. I think Candy's report was spot on.

He -- yes, he's in trouble, in that campaign managers, candidates, are really angry with him. He has raised $74 million and spent $64 million. He says it's a long-term strategy. But what he has spent it on, apparently, is just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose. That's not how you build a party. You win elections. That's how you build a party.

Stupid Dean, preparing for the 2006 elections by spending money on party building and GOTV in red states!

Truly, this is an argument worthy of the most profound respect. Those DC Democratic consultants sure do know how important it is to imitate John Kerry, and put all the resources on ads in Ohio.

[joe]

Especially when you have a big financial advantage, it's really important that you concentrate your efforts along as small a front as possible.

[Bingo]

So is the stock market supposed to tank on Monday or what?

[BDB]

Since when is the stock market NOT in the tank?

[KipEsquire]

There hasn't been a single debate, the true vetting of Palin is only beginning, and Obama is comfortably leading in every Electoral College poll.

But the Tories in Britain have it all figured out, right?

[P Brooks]

Party elders are also studying internal polling material

Some people (like me, for example) might suggest Obama's campaign started to nose over when he began to listen to the party elders and their pollsters, and bring the big time professional consultants on board. And vote, on their advice, for the FISA bill.

Not that I want Obama to be President, but good fucking grief...

President Queeg?

[SIV]

Good riddance. Hopefully nobody will vote for McCain, either.

They are going to vote for Palin.Unfortunately we are going to get McCain.Still beats the only viable alternative.

[Sausage Swingin\' Libber]

I agree with Kip on this one . . . cautiously. I believe that the Palingasms will eventually fade and that the media will actually find enough dirt on her to make some indies waver. If Obama can call off the attack dogs and steer the race back to issues, then he stands a chance of winning this thing.
However, if the MSM's continue to make ad hominem attacks and continuously focus on her lack of credentials or on her horrible mothering skills, then . . . well, that will probably make just enough people pissed off enough to vote for McCain/Palin.
It's all about impressions ... not substance. The Media are endangering their own pet pol!

[vanya]

The attacks on Palin were rather sudden and personal. A couple of them, like the library incident, were disproven. They undid much of the goodwill that took Obama months to build up. If it wasn't for the War on Drugs, McCain-Palin would have a good shot at my vote.

Do intelligent people actually think like this? Isn't obvious that McCain picked Palin solely with the purpose of provoking this kind of reaction? He knew he could get knee-jerk conservatives to buy into identity politics one more time, proving the only policy the right believes in is "if liberals hate it, we're for it!". Never mind if in this case liberals had perfectly good reason to be shocked that McCain would pick a vapid provincial woman with no national political experience whatsoever, hell someone who's spent most of her life outside the continental US. But sure, get outraged conservatives that anyone dare question this patently cynical move.

[Franklin Harris]

The main thing Obama should do right now is not panic. It's not helping him, of course, that so many of his supporters are panicking.

Also, the 50-state strategy was a good idea (up to a point) when it was a means to make McCain waste resources in states he shouldn't have to depend, but with the race tightening, it makes no sense.

Obama outmaneuvered Clinton in the primaries precisely because of his surgical strategy of selecting specific, delegate-rich districts.

I'd say it's time to go back to that, but I suspect that for all of the talk of a 50-state strategy, Obama's team has always been looking, in the end, at nickel-and-diming the Electoral College.

[rrlp]

They are tied in the electoral college polls show obama is only up by 8.

[Franklin Harris]

"he shouldn't have to defend", that is.

[ktc2]

So "conservatives" are stupid enough to vote for a fundy (with a pretty face) even though she will have absolutely no power, authority or say (other than tie breaking) unless McSame dies?

Please tell me they aren't that stupid. I mean come on she truly is the lipstick on the McCain pig.

[lannychiu]

"In certain ways, McCain was a natural Web candidate. Chairman of the Senate Telecommunications Subcommittee and regarded as the U.S. Senate's savviest technologist, McCain is an inveterate devotee of email. His nightly ritual is to read his email together with his wife, Cindy. The injuries he incurred as a Vietnam POW make it painful for McCain to type. Instead, he dictates responses that his wife types on a laptop. "She's a whiz on the keyboard, and I'm so laborious," McCain admits."

http://www.forbes.com/asap/2000/0529/053_print.html

If you compare this with Obama's recent ad on McCain's inability to use email, there are 2 possibilities.

1) He can't do basic research

2) He is a total jerk for making fun of a veteran's war injuries.

I don't know which is worse.

[BDB]

Sorry ktc2, I've heard that from more than one Conservative. Yes, they're that fucking stupid.

I hope McCain lives as long as his mom and serves two terms if he wins just so they realize how stupid that was.

[cunnivore]

vanya,

I'm not a huge Palin fan myself, but I fail to see why it's relevant that she's spent most of her life outside the continental US. Are Alaskans and Hawaiians (like Obama!) second-class citizens or something? Does spending most of your life in Wyoming, for instance, better prepare you for the presidency?

[Red Pencil]

There hasn't been a single debate, the true vetting of Palin is only beginning, and Obama is comfortably leading in every Electoral College poll.

No he isn't.

[Brandybuck]

There is no Bradley Effect. Not even in the Bradley race. It's a myth concocted to explain away poor showing in a tiny handful of selected races. The truth seems to be that the traditional "weighting" of polls slightly overstates the Democrats chances.

There's a recent talk on polling that discusses this at EconTalk: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/07/rivers_on_polli.html

[Brandybuck]

BDB: Cheney ended up wielding quite a bit of power. So did Gore. The more power the President aquires for the executive branch, the more the Vice President has access to.

[John C. Randolph]

We are a profoundly anti-intellectual people, yet somehow we muddle through.

More like, there are plenty of Americans who see through the pseudo-intellectual posturing of the left, and vote against the democrats because they keep pandering to fools like you.

-jcr

[prolefeed]

The Democratic strategist said: "It assumes Republicans are stupid and, when it comes to winning elections, they're not."

"and, when it comes to winning elections"? Wow. Even when this guy is pointing out how OTHER Democrats are condescending and arrogant and dismissive of the intelligence of Republicans, he is -- wait for it -- only slightly less condescending and arrogant and dismissive.

Thinking your opponents are dumb when they are not is a great way to get a can of whoopass dumped on your fool head.

It's one thing to heartily disagree with another person's political philosophy. It's quite a different thing to assume that anyone who doesn't share your POV must be an idiot.

[TallDave]

There certainly is some flailing panic from the Obama campaign.

I mean, come on: making fun of McCain for not being good with computers, when it's public knowledge he has trouble typing because of wounds he sustained being beaten by the North Vietnamese while serving his country?

Do the Obama people not know how to Google, or are they really just that tone-deaf? After putting "lipstick on a pig" in a speech days after Palin's very famous lipstick reference, you have to wonder who the hell is in charge over there.

I still think the press can pull this out for Obama, though they seem to be sacrificing more and more of their waning credibility in the effort.

[John C. Randolph]

Maybe if Obama weren't black and had a normal name....

Or maybe if he had something better than feelgood blather and warmed-over socialism to offer...

-jcr

[John C. Randolph]

I mean, come on: making fun of McCain for not being good with computers, when it's public knowledge he has trouble typing because of wounds he sustained being beaten by the North Vietnamese while serving his country?

TallDave,

I haven't seen any of that from the Obama campaign itself. It's the echo chamber at the Daily Kos and the like that are grasping at straws like that.

-jcr

[TallDave]

John C. Randolph,

You would think so, wouldn't you?

But no, the Obama team are actually running that in a campaign ad:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/09/obama-ad-email.html

http://graphics.boston.com/news/politics/campaign2000/news/McCain_character_loyal_to_a_fault+.shtml

McCain gets emotional at the mention of military families needing food stamps or veterans lacking health care. The outrage comes from inside: McCain's severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes. Friends marvel at McCain's encyclopedic knowledge of sports. He's an avid fan - Ted Williams is his hero - but he can't raise his arm above his shoulder to throw a baseball.

[prolefeed]

First, determining the "Bradley effect" should be simple by looking at the primary polls. Or maybe polls just aren't accurate.

Or, maybe primary polls and caucuses and actual primaries conducted among the partisan Democrats most likely to be counted for such events aren't a real good indicator of how the general public will vote in the general election, especially when about half of those voters didn't vote for the person who won the primary.

That maybe the people causing the Bradley effect are concentrated among voters who don't show up for Democratic primaries, or didn't vote for the winner of that primary. That, for example, maybe the white urban liberals in Philadelphia who helped win Pennsylvania for Obama mean it when they say they aren't prejudiced against black people, but maybe the more rural white Reagan Democrats in Pennsylvania who voted for Hillary might be a bit ashamed about directly saying how they feel about having a black president, and thus lie to the pollsters, and then either stay home or pull the lever for McCain.

[Rupie Jones]

I still find it hard to believe that ANYONE with a single ounce of common sense would take McBush seriously. I really dont get it!

Jiff
http://www.anonymize.us.tc

[SIV]

If you believe the Democrats, McCain is going to beat William Henry Harrison's record and expire before his term has begun.That reinforces the
vision of a Palin Presidency. Not the best way to discourage the conservative base!

[TallDave]

Re: the Bradley effect: I'm not sure it's racism so much as it is an aversion to being perceived as racist, fairly or not. I bet African-American pollsters get higher percentages for Obama than white or Asian pollsters do.

[David Weigel]

Those DC Democratic consultants sure do know how important it is to imitate John Kerry, and put all the resources on ads in Ohio.

Yeah, take Doug Schoen seriously at your own risk. He's Dick Morris light - a hack who got famous off the un-loseable 1996 Clinton re-election and pretends he understands the id of the American people even after he blows predictions left and right.

[Craig]

Obama's biggest mistake so far is in going strongly after Palin, whom voters like, and in barely attacking McCain, whom voters despise. Focusing on Palin only highlights his own inexperience, and makes him look like a sexist bully to boot.

[Pepe]

"I'm not a huge Palin fan myself, but I fail to see why it's relevant that she's spent most of her life outside the continental US"

"...someone who's spent most of her life outside the continental US"

Just what continent do you folks think Alaska is part of?

[Famous Mortimer]

It's always humorous to watch supposedly sensible adults react to inconsequential polling numbers, and reveal their true roots.

Libertarians need a healthy dose of skepticism about things other than those dastardly "statists."

Let's be honest, this blog is mostly a veiled, social conservative playground, and any story that even hints at a dip in support for Obama will get the identity politics revelers to clap their hands like a group of mongoloids at a pizza party.

However, I will agree that a McCain victory will likely cement the U.S.' reputation as an anti-intellectual, easily lead group of suburban schlubs whose only concern in life is God, Guns, and Taxes.

If you dangle social conservatism in front of their face, they eat it up, and then lick their fingers. They might even ask you to Supersize it for them.

It's as if we're still living in the Eighteenth Century.

[Famous Mortimer]

"I'm not a huge Palin fan myself, but I fail to see why it's relevant that she's spent most of her life outside the continental US"

"Just what continent do you folks think Alaska is part of?"

Exactly. His comment is proof as to why it's important, and hints at the kind of brains that are behind those who cross their fingers for a Palin victory.

The more I watch this parade go on, the less faith I have in the American public. Oh, and I want to. I really want to.

[scott]

I honestly do not understand how anyone could give the republicans four more years of power. They have ruled this country for almost eight years now and they have run our country into the ground. How many of us can really say that our country is in better shape then when they took control?. How many of us are doing better now than when Clinton was president? My parents both have their own businesses which were thriving eight years ago, now they are barely getting by.

They pretend they're more religious and moral but have you listened to their talk radio? They spew endless hatred of anyone that thinks differently than them. Now, like the past two elections, we are subject to their lies. This time about earmarks, bridges to nowhere, etc.

They had eight years and the have failed horribly. Our country can't afford any more.

[Paul]

Secret video of Hillary cutting his brake lines been found yet?

[Paul]

1. Why didn't we hear anything about the "Bradley effect" when he was up 5?

Good point. However, that doesn't nullify the possibility of the "Bradley effect". I don't buy into the Bradley effect (no one ever concedes that polls are just wrong), but if you accept some truth to it, you could assume that when Obama was up five, he was even, and now that he's down five, he's down ten.

[TallDave]

continental US"..."Just what continent do you folks think Alaska is part of?"...Exactly. His comment is proof as to why it's important, and hints at the kind of brains that are behind those who cross their fingers for a Palin victory.

When you're done patting yourself on the back for being smarter than those stupid inbred Republican hick, you might chceck Wikipedia:

The term continental United States refers to the 48 contiguous states located on the North American continent south of the border with Canada, plus the District of Columbia, but excluding Alaska and Hawaii

[Pepe]

Well Wikipedia is the authority on all human knowledge.

Alaska is part of North America. If you want to talk about the lower 48 then contiguous US is the best term.

Reminds me of when people use North American to mean people in the US and Canada as though Mexico were not part of North America.

[alan]

The more I watch this parade go on, the less faith I have in the American public. Oh, and I want to. I really want to.

I would feel this way as well if I also assumed that the public had much real persuasion in the political realm. What power we had was carefully excised from our hands during the Progressive Era with the shifting definitions of private/public property, money, and much else. One of the ironies of history is that many Marxist at the time saw the progressives for what they were and what they were really advocating, a consolidation of power through the constriction of economic competition and the marginalization of political outsiders. Today, most people who consider themselves Marxist also consider themselves to be 'progressives.'

Whether McCain or Obama wins, fundamental things about the political culture will not change: the scope of military engagement, the 'too big to fail' mentality will continue to drive public subsidy, and the price bloat in areas like health care and higher education where tertiary means dominate and are enforced by law (creating a vicious cycle where independence of means becomes impossible).

So why not enjoy the side show of freaks for what they are? Lipstick on pigs, good touch/bad touch, liberals pretending to be offended, conservatives pretending they have got their shit together, whatever, it's all gravy (or 'it's all groovy', the guy I knew who use to say that had an islander accent, so I never knew for certain).

[JB]

Obama has surrounded himself with sycophants and the nutroots. When you fill your campaign with hardcore leftists, you aren't going to get good advice.

[The Angry Optimist]

Mortimer - way to lord your so-called "intellect" over all and sundry while failing to realize that CONUS (continental United States) is the lower 48 and OCONUS is anywhere outside of that.

My, you're smart. Keep going on about how dumb we all are, though.

[The Angry Optimist]

Let's be honest, this blog is mostly a veiled, social conservative playground

Yes, all those calls calling for the legalization of prostitution, all controlled substances and the sale of all organs, tissues and gametes certainly all burnish Hit & Run's SoCon cred.

[alan]

Let's be honest, this blog is mostly a veiled, social conservative playground

Holy shit, he meant this blog? When I first read that I gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he made a typo with that one.

[Ebeneezer Scrooge]

Ben1

As long as we tolerate the massively corrupt and wholly unauthorized political system in this country, the people will continue to elect precisely the same evildoers and the status quo will remain unchanged

Okay, I hear you but -- precisely what would you have people do? Do you really feel like you had any real impact on who our current choices for president are? I voted in the primaries (with a clothes pin on my nose) and at that, there was nobody on the ballots that actually deserved my vote. But this is what you get from the popularity contest we use to pick our leaders.

The problem you're bashing at, is inherently the problem of DEMOCRACY (a god in the Euro-American pantheon). For as Sausage Swinger said,

It's all about impressions ... not substance.

And yeah I know the story about how we're a republic, not a democracy, but when push comes to shove we're only a few hairs away from being pure democracy.

As long as popular public opinion is driving the boat, what you're going to see is a massively corrupt political system. But as soon as popular public opnion is *not* driving the boat, what you're going to see is a massively corrupt and *genuinely* unauthorized political system.

Would you like authorized or unauthorized political corruption? Choose your poison. There ain't nothin else on the shelf.

[Ebeneezer Scrooge]

Famous Mortimer,

If you think this place is a social conservative play ground, then you can't have been hanging around here very long.

Either that, or you're way way WAY out Left.....

[Ebeneezer Scrooge]

btw, I'll wager that Michael Young is right on this one. Obama has already made about all the history he's going to make. Because he's not getting to White House.

Bitch if you like, but as a rule I haven't seen Americans vote socialists in, if there was an even semi-rational alternative.

Until Palin came on stage, I'd have bet money Obama was the winner. But the right likes Palin, she's more than semi-rational enough for them. And even if McCain lives through two terms, you have to figure she's going to have a pretty strong shot at being the White House afterward.

[Ebeneezer Scrooge]

Correction: I meant that Americans don't vote for socialist presidents if they've got an alternative. And "liberal" = "Democrat" = "socialist".

So far, Palin is sounding more like Reagan than anybody since, oh, Reagan. And while the Democrats and the media bitched and moaned, Reagan rolled right along.

So far, it looks to me like Palin could maybe pull the same thing off.

[jtuf]

Jim Walsh | September 13, 2008, 10:15pm | #

If it wasn't for the War on Drugs, McCain-Palin would have a good shot at my vote.

Well, speaking for myself, if it were'nt for the war on drugs thing, the Iraqi thing, the collaboration with Feingold thing, the temper thing, the myth-of-a-maverick thing, the general inability to speak articulately thing, the age thing, the bimbo-for-a-running-mate thing...

McCain-Feingold has lowered my opinion of McCain. McCain's attempt to make legal immigration easier raised my opinion of him. The Barr-Root ticket lost some of my support when it flirted with economic arguments against immigration. The War on Drugs tips me in favor of Barr even though I wish he would support higher generic immigration quotas.

[jtuf]

Jim Walsh | September 13, 2008, 10:15pm | #

the general inability to speak articulately thing, the age thing, the bimbo-for-a-running-mate thing...

Lefiti | September 13, 2008, 10:20pm | #

McCain will win, and the left will be as amazed as it was when Nixon, Reagan, and Bush won. We are a profoundly anti-intellectual people, yet somehow we muddle through. Palin may be pushing the envelope, though. Her dimwitted scoial convervatism ...

vanya | September 13, 2008, 11:42pm | #

Do intelligent people actually think like this?

ktc2 | September 13, 2008, 11:50pm | #

So "conservatives" are stupid enough to vote for a fundy (with a pretty face) even though she will have absolutely no power, authority or say (other than tie breaking) unless McSame dies?

Please tell me they aren't that stupid. I mean come on she truly is the lipstick on the McCain pig.

BDB | September 13, 2008, 11:54pm | #

Sorry ktc2, I've heard that from more than one Conservative. Yes, they're that fucking stupid.

I hope McCain lives as long as his mom and serves two terms if he wins just so they realize how stupid that was.

Pointing at the "other side" and making insults is a classic way to rally your side. It is also an ineffective way to win an election. Each person gets one vote. The people at Obama rallies are going to vote for him. Obama needs to win over the people who aren't at the rallies. You don't win over new people by insulting them.

[jtuf]

Lefiti | September 13, 2008, 10:20pm | #

Maybe if Obama weren't black and had a normal name...

I don't think you can blame bigotry for Obama's recent slide in the polls. Are you suggesting that millions of Americans just realized he's black? Think McCain's recent increase in the polls results from enthusiasm for Palin and a rejection of the harsh way Obama's supporters treated her.

The Democratic candidate for president got between 40% and 55% of the vote in the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 elections. Obama was polling in the 40's all summer, which is average for a Democratic presidential candidate. Since Obama is about as popular as past white Democratic candidates, I think Americans are judging him based on his policies, not his race.

[Chloe]

Omg! No way! How could the Messiah not be winning??? Everyone on my friends list loves him!

[joe]

TallDave tells us John McCain can't use a computer because of his war injuries.

John McCain tells us he can't use a computer because he never learned how.

"I am learning to get online myself, and I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself," McCain told the New York Times in an interview that appeared Sunday. "I don't expect to be a great communicator, I don't expect to set up my own blog, but I am becoming computer literate to the point where I can get the information that I need."

Even so, McCain bluntly admits, "I don't e-mail. I've never felt the particular need to e-mail."

You really shouldn't condescend to disabled people by using their disabilities to explain everything about them.

[joe]

I am becoming computer literate to the point where I can get the information that I need.

I guess he has more faith in his abilities that his supporters do.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

joe's right and wrong. So are Obama's critics in the article.

It's not stupid to run a "50 state" strategy(he's not really running that, no Dem really runs in Georgia and for that matter McCain is probably not even trying to win Massachussets for example). There are traditionally red states that Dems could have turned this year. In fact some of this would kind of have to happen in order for a Dem to win, considering that simply holding the states they won in 00 and 04 certainly would mean defeat.

The problem is that in order to win these kinds of states you have to have a candidate that could reasonably do that, and "Barak Hussein Obama" is just not that. There is a significant minority of average Americans who find the Democratic candidate to be the strangest thing they have ever fucking seen, folks who think his name sounds incredible and even threatening (given how demonized the name "Hussein" is in the US). They find his biography to be exotic, something they can't relate with to say the least (growing up in Hawaii and Indonesia, a Kenyan dad and Kansan mom). And they find some of his associations to be, well, bizarre (Ayers and Wright for example).

But how did the Democratic Party not see this coming? They ran a "50 state" strategy successfully in 2006 with Heath Shuler in NC, Jim Webb in Va, etc, not with Rahm Emannuel's or Barak Obama's in these areas. Did they think that a mixed race guy from a local urban political scene would not come off as strange and as having associations which would unsettle many Americans? Are they that out of touch with average Americans? That's terrifying to someone like me who thinks that the GOP needs to be punished for their Executive mismanagement of the past eight years.

[joe]

The type of candidate who can win an election is someone with political skills, someone who's an excellent communicator, and someone who can convey a message that appeals to people. Period. Full stop.

Not everyone freaks out about race like you do. The fact that he was, at any point in the campaign, considerably ahead of McCain demonstrates that you are quite simply wrong.

[Tom]

I love how the Sunday Telegraph is wetting its pants - excuse me, *trousers* - about the possibility that a Republican might win an American election.

Sigh.

The Telegraph is a conservative paper.

God, if there's anything that illustrates how people like to see media bias where none exists, this is it.

[joe]

People's opinions about policies, about how much they like your opponent, about whether you seem tough enough, etc. will change over the course of a campaign.

The unwillingness of people to vote for a black man on the basis of his race will not. People aren't going to go from willing to vote for a black candidate by a big margin in June to not in September. That doesn't change - or rather, it might change in a positive direction, but people who are not afraid of having a minority candidate are not suddenly going to become afraid.

Cripes, you'd think no white candidate had ever seen a lead shrink before.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

joe
On the other thread I read where you repeated your line about "he justs hits me because I'm stupid and lazy."

No, the GOP doesn't madly attack Dem candidates BECAUSE of the candidates faults. They attack because that's what they do (studies in pol sci journals consistently find that GOP candidates, whether the campaign be local, state or federal, more readily and frequently resort to attack tactics). No matter who the Dems nominated the GOP would attack and attack. So no I don't think nominating a "better" candidate would prevent the attacks.

But it would protect the candidate from the attacks. When your candidate really does have this funny name, or he really does have this hard to relate to backstory, or he really does have this time spent associating with unsavory urban political figures, then it makes the attacks not only easier but they are more likely to stick.

The Dems were not thinking when they thought "well Kerry was a war hero, he's protected." The guy came home and threw his medals away. That's something the average American finds "fishy" and negates his service in the eyes of many veterans, military families, etc.

Take a look at the always nasty Jim Gilmore campaign trying to smear Mark Warne in VA this year. It's like "Mark Warner, well, he, well, he's a secret tax raiser!" Just not the same as "Barak Obama has a muslim name, his middle name is Hussein, he was friends with a hippie who blew up things, blah, blah". Having a more "armored" candidate helps. Having one that is politically nude among mosquito's, not so much.

[joe]

Except, MNG, that Bill Clinton really did dodge the draft. He really did protest the war while overseas. He really was a dirty fucking hippie, he really did marry Headband Hillary, and they really did have far-left friends.

How'd that work out?

[joe]

Oh, by the way, "we now know" that Palin didn't try to ban books from the library, because SIV told us so.

Except that seems to be worth about as much as every other piece of information SIV passes along.

Witnesses and contemporary news accounts say Ms. Palin asked the librarian about removing books from the shelves. The McCain-Palin presidential campaign says Ms. Palin never advocated censorship.
But in 1995, Ms. Palin, then a city councilwoman, told colleagues that she had noticed the book "Daddy's Roommate" on the shelves and that it did not belong there, according to Ms. Chase and Mr. Stein. Ms. Chase read the book, which helps children understand homosexuality, and said it was inoffensive; she suggested that Ms. Palin read it.

"Sarah said she didn't need to read that stuff," Ms. Chase said. "It was disturbing that someone would be willing to remove a book from the library and she didn't even read it."

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"Not everyone freaks out about race like you do. The fact that he was, at any point in the campaign, considerably ahead of McCain demonstrates that you are quite simply wrong."

Is that why we've had so very many black governors and senators and Presidents in our long history? We've had 2 governors, two senators, and 0 of the latter. By any definition of prudence that makes picking a black guy to head the ticket risky to say the least.

He led McCain, in a year in which the GOP is so amazingly discredited that it is easily, as a brand, in its weakest position in a long, long time. And his lead has been getting smaller and smaller and now gone. It ain't gonna get better brother.

Again, the Dems will pick up seats in the House and Senate but lose the Presidency. That doesn't signal a good choice for the Prez nominee.

[joe]

Not to mention, MNG, the attacks that McCain launched against Obama have been the "celebrity" ad, and standard-issue anti-liberal, warhawk stuff that has been thrown at every Democrat for the past twenty years.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Hey, even Joe Biden agrees with my commentary on his choice as VP:

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24335656-663,00.html

Joe Biden, WTF?!?

[joe]

Is that why we've had so very many black governors and senators and Presidents in our long history?

It's why we have black governors and senators now. It's why black candidates win even Republican primaries, now.

You're just behind the times, old man, and wetting your pants.

[joe]

At least the rubber sheet brigade in the Telegraph article could actually talk about the dynamics of this campaign. Even the Democratic lifers trying to tear him down are talking about campaign strategies, not his skin color.

[Tom]

The unwillingness of people to vote for a black man on the basis of his race will not. People aren't going to go from willing to vote for a black candidate by a big margin in June to not in September. That doesn't change - or rather, it might change in a positive direction, but people who are not afraid of having a minority candidate are not suddenly going to become afraid.

I think you're right, Joe, but what's also key to note here is that this isn't really about Obama's losing his support -- it's about undecideds finally clocking in (and generally casting their support with McCain).

We've got about five percentage points fewer undecideds than we did at the start of July, for instance (Real Clear Politics average). That's essentially equivalent to the swing for McCain.

There are still a handful of undecideds left. Those are the ones y'all are gonna have to go after. Best of luck...

[joe]

I love election analysis that doesn't think to include John McCain in their description of the dynamics of the race.

I love election analysis that doesn't think to include the effects of a convention bump in the race.

I love election analysis that tells us that a guy who spent five months without ever being behind or even tied can't possibly attract voters.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Joe
Clinton won in 92 with Perot helping out quite a bit by cutting down the GOP's appeal to the "average american" type that would have found his liabilities to be a problem.

1996 was interesting though. The GOP, a la Gingrich, was just seen as a scary thing at that time, and Clinton pulled his "divided government will protect you from Gingrich" play very well. Dole had all the problems McCain had at first, that as a long time senator he was simply unable to be the krazy kulture warrior the GOP faithful wanted. And he made an "Obama-esque" VP choice (Jack Kemp, WTF?!?).

I don't argue that McCain was gonna walk with this. Far from it. He was losing, as was Dole until the VP pick. He was better than Dole but running in worse time for a GOP candidate. Obama is a bad choice but yes, given Bush's eight years of disasters he did have a decent chance. He just was clearly not the Dems strongest pick, and he can't overcome McCain's politically wise VP choice.

[BDB]

"There certainly is some flailing panic from the Obama campaign."

[emphasis mine]

Are they flat footed too, TallDave? And sexist?

[herodotus]

Am I the only person here who just doesn't care which of these two statists wins the election?

[BDB]

Anybody want to bet when the Palin bubble collapses?

I say a week after the first debate.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"I love election analysis that doesn't think to include John McCain in their description of the dynamics of the race."
Uhh, I've consistently said his choice was the best move the GOP could have made. It made it possible for them to win this time. It's the kind of wise thinking about picking the strongest possible nominee the Dems flubbed.

"I love election analysis that doesn't think to include the effects of a convention bump in the race."
Oh I note these bumps. I liked Obama's bump. Where did that go so fast?

"I love election analysis that tells us that a guy who spent five months without ever being behind or even tied can't possibly attract voters."
Well, yes Obama can attract voters. He can even get liberal Democrats very, very excited.

But a majority of voters in the general election?

He won't get that, and I think you are starting to know it.

2006: Harold Ford. Jim Webb. Nuff said.

[BDB]

BTW, SIV, McCain's mom is 96 and still alive.

His Dad lived into his 90s.

Good luck getting Palin as President with those genes.

"BDB: Cheney ended up wielding quite a bit of power. So did Gore."

Only because Clinton and Bush gave it to them. McCain has quite the traditional view of the Vice Presidency--he said the job is to inquire as to the health of the President, and visit the funerals of third world dictators.

But don't worry, SIV and other Palin Fanbois, maybe she can be in charge of the Space Council like Quayle!

[joe]

Wait a minute, there are things other than what the Republicans say about the Democratic nominee that matter in a political context?

Are you sure about that, MNG? I find that pretty implausible.

He was better than Dole but running in worse time for a GOP candidate. More importantly, Dole was the Senate Majority Leader, and longtime water carrier for the party with no independence from it. It is beyond imagination to think that he could have ever criticized the Republican Party.

As opposed to John McCain, who is loathed among the DC Republican establishment, and has a decades-long reputation for breaking with his party and working with Democrats. Ever Google "McCain RINO?"

John McCain, and his reputation, matter in this race. Viewing every event and asking "How did Barack Obama cause this?" is silly. John McCain has, at least for now, pulled even with Obama because of his convention and the attention his choice of nominee has produced. BTW, those fade, and we're already seeing McCain poll lower than he was immediately after the convention.

Before the conventions began, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com produced a graph of his prediction of what the convention bumps would look like. He shows McCain's trailing off and disappearing entirely by October 1st. So far, the polling numbers appear to be following his chart exactly.

[Tom]

Am I the only person here who just doesn't care which of these two statists wins the election?

No, you're definitely not alone.

Since I might as well get something out of it, though, I can say I'd be happy to see the left not be vindicated via an Obama victory. I'd rather see the personality-cult stuff not triumph, because I think it would spur even further empowerment of the presidential role, and the way Americans view it.

So I'm not exactly rooting for McCain. But I'm definitely rooting against Obama.

[BDB]

MNG are you a Red Sox fan?

[BDB]

Yes Tom, because we all know the right doesn't have any personality cult right now.

HEY! IS THAT THE NEW SARAH PALIN DOLL?

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"At least the rubber sheet brigade in the Telegraph article could actually talk about the dynamics of this campaign. Even the Democratic lifers trying to tear him down are talking about campaign strategies, not his skin color."

Yeah, people are very frank in our day and age talking about race and its effect.

C'mon joe. If Harold Ford had every characteristic he has EXCEPT being black he'd be in the Senate now. If Jim Webb had been black he would have lost to Allen macacca or not. Do you think not? I don't like that race matters to chunks of the electorate, but it does.

[The Recording Angel]

Except, MNG, that Bill Clinton really did dodge the draft. He really did protest the war while overseas. He really was a dirty fucking hippie, he really did marry Headband Hillary, and they really did have far-left friends.

How'd that work out?

Too bad Obama doesn't have a Ross Perot to absorb votes that would have gone to Republicans. Let's remember Clinton won both elections with pluralities, not majorities.

[SIV]

joe,

I checked the NYTs link.There was no effort to ban Daddy's Roommate or any other book(s. Comprehend much?

[joe]

Where did that go so fast?

You mean, why was his bump huge but short lived, when the Republican convention began four days later? Gee, that's a tough one.

Well, yes Obama can attract voters. He can even get liberal Democrats very, very excited. As a matter of fact, he was winning Independents by as much as double digits during that period.

2006: Harold Ford. Jim Webb. Nuff said. Virginia. Tennessee. America. Nuff said.

[Sully]

This has been an interesting comment string which has substantially missed the main fact.

The Republicans, mostly by chance, have a nominee who's as close to the ideological center as can be found among Repubs. The Democrats, by sheer perverse religious loyalty to identity politics, have a nominee who is ideologically almost as far from the center as can be found in their party.

[Nephilium]

BDB:

Are you talking presidential debate, or the VP debate? I've got the feeling that Biden's going to say something that's a foot in mouth moment during the VP debate, giving McCain/Palin a boost after.

Nephilium

[joe]

Too bad Obama doesn't have a Ross Perot to absorb votes that would have gone to Republicans.

This beloved myth of bitter Republicans was refuted years ago.

Polls of Perot voters about their second choice in 1992 show them splitting almost exactly even between Bush and Clinton.

[Tom]

Yes Tom, because we all know the right doesn't have any personality cult right now.

HEY! IS THAT THE NEW SARAH PALIN DOLL?

Oh, you're right, to an extent. But Palin is a vice presidential nominee, for starters. And more to the point, she's not one of the "two statists" we were talking about in the preceding exchange.

[BDB]

Nephilium-

That all depends on how many times the Republicans cry wolf sexism between now and the VP debate.

Something tells me they will do it a hella lot between now and the first week of October.

[joe]

There was no effort to ban Daddy's Roommate or any other book(s.

There certainly was by Sarah Palin, the City Councilor. Good thing she got voted down.

What does it mean to be too socially conservative for the City Council of Wasilla, Alaska?

[BDB]

Tom-

I want the Republicans to lose all three branches so they get back to being what they were in the mid-90s. That's not going to happen if they elect a big government conservative P.O.S. like McCain.

[BDB]

Actually, the Obama personality cult is one thing that made me seriously consider McCain. But since he has one of his own now (read RedState comment threads on Palin, it's a cyber circle jerk), that argument is shot to hell.

[joe]

The Democrats, by sheer perverse religious loyalty to identity politics, have a nominee who is ideologically almost as far from the center as can be found in their party.

The Democrats nominated Dennis Kucinich?

Hillary Clinton attacked Barack Obama's health care plan FROM THE LEFT. You know, Hillary Clinton? The glass-ceiling shattering woman?

But other than that, that's a great observation about Obama being the furthest-left candidate and Obama winning because of identity politics.

[Rudy Giuliani (D-NY)]

HE'S A SOCIALIST! FAR FAR LEFT ALISNKYITE SOCIALIST!

[Mr. Nice Guy]

So we agree that McCain got a bump from Palin that Obama did not get from Biden. Good.

One of my points is that a non-Obama candidate would have had a bigger lead at this point that would have not been overcome by the VP pick of McCain like it was. This has to do with Obama's limited appeal. Where he appeals his appeal is deep, but it is limited by the factors I mentioned (we could see this in the states and areas where he performed so poorly against HRC. Was race and the funny name, etc., not involved when all those white voters passed on him in those contests?).

Another point is that Obama as Prez made it possible for McCain to go with a "diversity" pick for VP in a way that Obama simply could not do. Whereas a Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, of the like could have made a huge splash by naming, say, Bill Richardson or, yes, Barak Obama as VP, Obama had to make some attempt to combat his "otherness" and where he was lacking.

Still, the fucker could at least have picked someone who could swing a freaking state! Joe Biden, WTF?!?

joe, weren't you telling us all here about what a terrible campaigner McCain was a few months ago? Now you're arguing it's his strong points and campaign choices that refelct his lead, not Obama's weakness....

[Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)]

Freudian slip above.

[Tom]

I want the Republicans to lose all three branches so they get back to being what they were in the mid-90s.

I hear you. The choices in this election SUCK. There's no doubt about it.

I guess it's a cutting-the-losses sort of thing for me at this point. Neither McCain nor Obama is going to shrink government, etc. etc. So my brain thus moves along to the periphery of it all -- what Obama's appeal represents, what his followers stand for, what his victory would signal to them. And on that count, I'd rather the win go to the guy who at least ostensibly represents smaller government.

If it's going to be at least four more years 'til we have a real-world chance for smaller government, I guess I'd rather bide my time with someone who won't make the left's memes get even further entrenched in the meantime.

[BDB]

Tom-

Obama and a Democratic Congress will over-reach so fast our heads will spin at how much public support they lose by the 2010 mid-terms.

[joe]

So we agree that McCain got a bump from Palin that Obama did not get from Biden. Good.

Yes, Palin's effect is that of a bump, and Biden's more a of a steady, long-haul running mate.

Still, the fucker could at least have picked someone who could swing a freaking state! Joe Biden, WTF?!? You mean like John Edwards? Old-fashioned thinking.

joe, weren't you telling us all here about what a terrible campaigner McCain was a few months ago? Yes, he is. That's why they're keeping him off the TV, and have been for weeks, while pushing the running mate out there.

Now you're arguing it's his strong points and campaign choices... Yes, none of which are his campaigning skills. He's hiding behind Sarah Palin's skirts, and she's just the running mate. Running mate's never matter on election day.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

joe and BDB
Demonstrating Palin is a social conservative won't cause SIV to be any less in love with her as SIV is plainly conservative Republican himself. He only plays a libertarian here on H&R. His biggest fear seems to be that libertarians will one day wake up and see that social conservatives love big government and detest anything remotely like "liberty."

"2006: Harold Ford. Jim Webb. Nuff said. Virginia. Tennessee. America. Nuff said."

joe there is a lot of Virginia's and Tennessee's in America. And the beauty is that any Democrat who could win VA and TN would also easily win all the Massachussets and New Yorks, but one who can only win the latter and not the former tend to do what Dems do best at the Presidential level since 1968: lose.

[BDB]

"Running mate's never matter on election day."

This may, MAY be the first time in history when they do, if conservatives are this easily bought off with a nice squeaky toy to keep them distracted. We'll see.

[Telly]

"C'mon joe. If Harold Ford had every characteristic he has EXCEPT being black he'd be in the Senate now."

Harold Ford didn't win because Tennesseans (at least on the eastern half of the state) were sick of his corrupt family, half of which is in jail now due to the Tennessee Waltz FBI investigation.

[BDB]

I've never bought into the "CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS ARE THE STUPIDZ!" meme, but if they elect McCain even though they completely disagree with him because of his VP choice, I'll be a big believer in it.

[joe]

Oh, I know that about SIV (who used to deny being a Republican shill, and called himself "Single Issue Voter" to pretend to care only about laws banning cockfighting). I'm just proving him wrong, not trying to convince him.

joe there is a lot of Virginia's and Tennessee's in America. There's a lot more Virginia.

Look at polling by region. The South is becoming more and more politically and culturally isolated from the northeast, midwest, and west. You're advice would be really treat, MNG, 20 or 30 years ago. Please, keep talking about the sixties, man. That's where it's at.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"Still, the fucker could at least have picked someone who could swing a freaking state! Joe Biden, WTF?!? You mean like John Edwards? Old-fashioned thinking."

Aargh, joe, you keep demonstrating what I'm talking about, like you did with the "well the GOP was EVEN able to attack John Kerry so what does that tell you" stuff. John Kerry had some issues in his past (medal toss event, anti-war testimony) that anyone should have seen would have negated any safety from attack his military record would have afforded. And no one in his right mind thought John Edwards could in a million years swing NC. Kerry never seriously contested NC.

[Raphael]

Sometimes I think half the people in the forum are barely old enough to have paid a lot of taxes yet.

[BDB]

I'm convinced both McCain and Obama (despite what either say, it isn't worth a bottle of warm piss what they SAY) will end up raising taxes. On everyone.

Obama will do it because he's a Democrat.

McCain will do it in exchange for getting to conduct foreign policy how he wants.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

joe
You know how when the GOP moderates its positions and candidates on the issue of race it is not seriously thinking about winning black voters but is rather trying not to turn off white independents? That's how the Dems need to think. No, they are not going to win Alabama or Georgia no matter who they choose or what they push. But by choosing someone less offensive to Alabama and Georgia they make it more likely to win VA or TN.

"There's a lot more Virginia."

That's right, I grew up there and my parents still live there. And how do Dems win VA? Jim Webb. Mark Warner. Safe (meaning white with unfunny names) centrists. (You may mention Wilder. Wilder did a few things differently than Obama. First, he wore cowboy boots [I kid you not] and had a normal name and a Southern accent. Not so very "other." Second, he went through the Lt. Gov. spot. Third, he ran at a time of Dem strength in VA {a strength built on nice white centrist war hero Chuck Robb}. And fourth he ran against a Republican establishment who seemed not to give a shit about winning that year. It was amazing.)

[Elemenope]

Obama and a Democratic Congress will over-reach so fast our heads will spin at how much public support they lose by the 2010 mid-terms.

The only overreach that will actually cost them votes would be an overreach on restricting gun rights.

Or if they manage to start a war of their own. Heh.

----------

The Palin bump will sublimate away with the first presidential debate, at which point it will become painfully clear that McCain is still the top of the ticket, and will be the guy they'll have to cast a ballot for if they want to vote for the Right.

Also if Palin gets flustered as easily as she did while fielding softballs from Gibson, Biden is going to clean her clock (for all the ten people who will actually watch and/or care about the VP debate).

[Mr. Nice Guy]

BDB
McCain may not raise taxes. But he will continue to spend crazy amounts of our tax dollars on wars. He'll just do what right win folks do when they govern lately: deficets.

[BDB]

No, MNG, he will raise taxes. He will raise them because that's the only way a Democratic Congress will let him start as many wars as he wants.

[jtuf]

Mr. Nice Guy | September 14, 2008, 10:17am | #

So we agree that McCain got a bump from Palin that Obama did not get from Biden. Good.

One of my points is that a non-Obama candidate would have had a bigger lead at this point that would have not been overcome by the VP pick of McCain like it was. This has to do with Obama's limited appeal. Where he appeals his appeal is deep, but it is limited by the factors I mentioned (we could see this in the states and areas where he performed so poorly against HRC. Was race and the funny name, etc., not involved when all those white voters passed on him in those contests?).

Again, throughout the summer, Obama polled about as well as Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004. This reminds me of the compaints that Bush is only in power because of the "fringe right". When half the country votes for Bush, that isn't a fringe. Face it, only 40% to 55% of the country has supported the Democratic pick in the past two decades. They lost during the 1980's too. Perhaps they should look at their platform.

[Tom]

Obama and a Democratic Congress will over-reach so fast our heads will spin at how much public support they lose by the 2010 mid-terms.

By the way, I'm not sure how much I agree with this. The overreaching, yes. But not necessarily the backlash.

The past half century is a story of overreach, at least when it comes to trampling individualism and liberty, etc. And yes, there's been a backlash: It has taken the form of conservatism and libertarianism. It is what it is: We can see the extent of its support and energy. It already exists.

I'm not convinced it's going to abruptly grow just because Democrats start pushing through universal health care and what have you. The incrementalism of the past half century has made the overreach-iness of that less egregious. I'm just not sure where this new tremendous backlash is gonna come from, beyond where it already exists.

Instead, you get a bunch of overreaching, a bunch more diminished rights, and "public support" that's no more or less than it is right now. If this were a basketball game on the line, I don't let the opponent take the three-pointer unmolested, simply because it might charge my team up more if he makes it. That's a really risky strategy.

[BDB]

Like I said, I'm convinced McCain will do everything domestically Obama will do, plus more wars and a Cold War with Russia, PLUS those horrible policies will have the ruse of "bi-partisanship" to cover them.

[joe]

MNG,

And no one in his right mind thought John Edwards could in a million years swing NC. Kerry never seriously contested NC.

No, Ohio, not North Carolina. John Edwards was picked to swing Ohio. Talk about identity politics - he spent the campaign traveling around southeastern Ohio, saying "Hey, y'all sound kind of like me when you talk! Mah daddy worked in a mill." That's why you never saw him on TV - he was micro-targeting a region of Ohio.

[BDB]

Of course even if McCain does all that, morons like SIV will still love it because they get to look at bikini pics of Palin for eight years.

[SIV]

joe,

You are making things up again.

joe | September 14, 2008, 10:14am | #
There was no effort to ban Daddy's Roommate or any other book(s.

There certainly was by Sarah Palin, the City Councilor. Good thing she got voted down.

What does it mean to be too socially conservative for the City Council of Wasilla, Alaska?

Where does it say City council voted on whether to remove any book? They don't have that power

[Tom]

Of course even if McCain does all that, morons like SIV will still love it because they get to look at bikini pics of Palin for eight years.

Well, she will be 52 by 2017...

[joe]

MNG,

Tennessee, oddly enough, is now the Deep South, while Virginia is practically the northeast. You keep using political analysis from 1980!

Look, nobody is questioning that race and culture play a role here, but did you see that Mark Warner speech at the Democratic Convention? That guy is awful. A black politician who actually has talent and brains is a better choice than an unappealing good old boy. Barack Obama, like every politician is the sum of his parts, not just the two (skin color and middle name) that you seem obsessed with.

[Sully]

Joe,
"The Democrats nominated Dennis Kucinich?

Hillary Clinton attacked Barack Obama's health care plan FROM THE LEFT."

You're right, I forgot the Democrat's freakin' loon who believes he's seen flying saucers. But it turns out Obama has a more reliable left voting record than Kucinich in the Senate.

And, surely attacking Obama from the left is what got Hillary all those blue collar votes in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I hope you're advising Obama's campaign.

[joe]

McCain would raise taxes, just like Reagan did - because he cares about deficits, and his free-lunch plan to increase revenues while cutting tax rates via the power of positive thinking won't work this time, either.

SIV,

Where does it say City council voted on whether to remove any book? They don't have that power Perhaps you explain that to Sarah Palin, who brought up the issue on the floor of the City Council, in addition to approaching the librarian on THREE separate occasions (according to her own campaign team!) about banning books, once she became mayor.

Nope, neither the mayor nor the city council has the power to do that. Just the librarian. So...remind us...what happened that that librarian?

[joe]

But it turns out Obama has a more reliable left voting record than Kucinich in the Senate.

Really? Barack Obama sponsored articles of impeachment? Barack Obama authored a bill to create a single-payer health system?

You don't know what you're talking about.

[BDB]

I thought John Kerry was the most liberal Senator? What happened to that?

[SIV]

The librarian kept her job joe and no books were banned.

[Tom]

Nope, neither the mayor nor the city council has the power to do that. Just the librarian. So...remind us...what happened that that librarian?

The librarian kept her job joe and no books were banned.

Christ, doesn't this stuff numb your brains? Where do y'all get the energy for this? It's just draining, these partisan arguments about all the minutiae in the various candidate storylines. Lipstick comments, city council rules, blah blah blah blah.

None of this stuff convinces ANYBODY of ANYTHING. It's just partisans getting so deep into the fight that they can't see the forest for the trees anymore. It's frikking pointless.

Sometimes it's just... yes, mind-numbing.

[joe]

The McCain campaign is defending Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's much-criticized inquiry into banning books at her hometown library, saying her questions were only hypothetical.

Shortly after taking office in 1996 as mayor of Wasilla, a city of about 7,000 people, Palin asked the city's head librarian about banning books. Later, the librarian was notified by Palin that she was being fired, although Palin backed off under pressure.

Palin alleged attempt at book-banning has been a matter of intense interest since Republican presidential nominee John McCain named her as his running mate last month.

Taylor Griffin, a spokesman for the McCain campaign, said Thursday that Palin asked the head librarian, Mary Ellen Emmons, on three occasions how she would react to attempts at banning books. He said the questions, in the fall of 1996, were hypothetical and entirely appropriate. He said a patron had asked the library to remove a title the year before and the mayor wanted to understand how such disputes were handled.

Records on the city's Web site, however, do not show any books were challenged in Wasilla in the 10 years before Palin took office.

Palin notified Emmons she would be fired in January 1997 because the mayor didn't feel she had the librarian's "full support." Emmons was reinstated the next day after public outcry, according to newspaper reports at the time.

Sarah Palin: failed book burner.

[Elemenope]

The librarian kept her job joe and no books were banned.

You're meandering into blind shill territory.

The librarian was fired, and only reinstated due to popular outcry.

And just because she wasn't *successful* at getting books banned doesn't mean that the *attempt* isn't absolutely terrifying. If only a few minor facts were changed (a slightly more spineless librarian, a slightly less supportive public) and there would likely be books banned in Wasilla.

[Chloe]

"None of this stuff convinces ANYBODY of ANYTHING. It's just partisans getting so deep into the fight that they can't see the forest for the trees anymore. It's frikking pointless."

God, yes. Truer words were never spoken.

[SIV]

The librarian was fired, and only reinstated due to popular outcry.

She was "fired" at the same time as all of the other City of Wasilla Department heads who supported Palin's opponent, the incumbent mayor.She was reinstated shortly thereafter and continued to serve as librarian for years.No books were banned.

There is nothing there folks

[Elemenope]

Tell me something, SIV.

If a democratic mayor made an inquiry regarding "how to collect and register firearms from the community", and was unsuccessful from doing so only by the grace of whatever (i.e. a public servant with a backbone and/or popular outcry), would you care? Would it be an issue if that mayor eventually found themselves a candidate for national office?

Be honest, now.

[BDB]

Meandering into blind shill territory?

He's already there.

[srjenkins]

This has to be the most hilarious thread I've ever read on this site. Yes, let's hear from the Democratic strategists that got their asses handed to them by Obama, and how upset they are that they are getting cut out.

Let's also fantasize about the fact that McCain isn't going to get his ass handed to him. Yeah, he's got a shot at it = more like Bob Dole than Nixon.

Obama just broke his fundraising effort for a month and raked in $66 million. Anyone want to talk about the Palin effect? All Obama needs to do is to keep that woman talking, I'm sure Americans tired of the Iraq war love the idea of a war with Russia.

You keep up the brilliant strategy, and the self-satisfied complacency. While I have no great love for Obama, at least his foreign policy isn't being driven by neo-imperialists or "bring-on-the-rapture" Christians. He's definitely the lessor of the two evils here.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

LMNOP
But that's an ENTIRELY different matter ;). SIV's just shilling.

joe
You're right, Mark Warner is not as electrifying of a speaker as is Obama. Neither is John McCain.

Another difference between them is that Warner and McCain are winning and are going to win and Obama is losing and is going to lose. So much for good speaking.

What in the world btw are Obama's "political skills" supposed to be? Unlike Clinton in 92 who had demonstrated a repeated ability to win statewide elections in non-friendly territory Obama has one state wide victory to his name in which his opposition was Alan Keyes for god sakes.

[James Ard]

According to the msm, the governor of Arkansas, a state ranked at the bottom of everything, was qualified enough to replace a person with experience as President, Vice President, UN Ambassador, CIA director and shot down fighter pilot. Yet the Governor of Alaska isn't qualified enough to be Vice President? The press are idiots to believe in socialism, but they are even bigger idiots to trash their own credibility to achieve it.

[BDB]

Governor of a state for 12 years with a population of two million is a bit different from Governor of a state for 19 months with a population of 600,000.

[BDB]

"Media Bias" is the right wing version of the Democrats saying "they stole it from us!"

Yawn.

[JDM]

"Media Bias" is the right wing version of the Democrats saying "they stole it from us!"

That's a funny thing to say in an election where the surreal anti-Palin media bias just cost the best Democratic candidate in a generation the election.

McCain is up to 50% this morning in a Rasmussen poll that is under-representing Republicans at this point. (Rasmussen only updates his political party affiliation weights for likely voters at the end of each month, so his figures for September are pre-Palin.)

Media-bias stole the election from the Democrats!

[Tulpa]

Arkansas = 53179 sqmi

Alaska = 663267 sqmi

Arkansas might have thrice the population, but it also has about 1/12 the area. And governing a large area with few people presents challenges of its own.

[BDB]

Tulpa that's quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read on this blog.

And no, it's quite easy when your awash in oil money. It's like being Emir of Kuwait.

[BDB]

Yes JDM, this is 1980 and there are only three networks and they're all liberal!

No, it's 2008. You have dozens of radio talk show hosts blasting RNC talking points every weekday for hours on end, an entire right-leaning cable news network that's also the highest rated, tons of conservative blogs and magazines, etc. There is no one "media" anymore.

[joe]

So, MNG, your argument for why Barack Obama is going to lose is that Barack Obama is going to lose.

Yawn.

[Palin Shill]

Being Governor of Alaska is more difficult than being Mayor of New York. After all, New York City has a very small land area and Alaska has lots of land!

[ed]

a once-in-a-generation chance to win back the White House

Seriously? A "generation" is eight years now? The phrase itself smacks of desperation.
Get a grip, Dems. The world never does end when you lose, nor when you win.

[BakedPenguin]

Am I the only person here who just doesn't care which of these two statists wins the election?

No. I hate to reference South Park, since it gets too much play here already, but the "giant douche/turd sandwich" thing really applies.

IS THAT THE NEW SARAH PALIN DOLL?

They have a Sarah Palin blow-up doll already? Is it banned from libraries?

[BDB]

Baked-

No, it's a barbie-like doll. You pull a string, and it says up to ten phrases. I believe one of the phrases is "CHARLIE!"

[joe]

It's not "Dems." It's a group of professional losers, and MNG.

[Tom]

Well, it is probably the left's once-in-a-generation chance. (I know that's not what the story said.)

And so I refer back to my above comments: I don't like McCain, but I do think it's crucial to keep the left from fulfilling this once-in-a-generation chance.

[MJ]

"That's a funny thing to say in an election where the surreal anti-Palin media bias just cost the best Democratic candidate in a generation the election."

McCain won the election? How long was I asleep?

"best Democratic candidate in a generation"

That's damning with faint praise.

[J sub D]

Damn, you folks stayed up all night for this? WOW! I, on the other hand, am well rested, bright eyed and bushy tailed as it were. I'm able to compose clear, insightful analysis of what all of this really means and place it in perxspective.

The Bradley effect. It's real. Whether the populace has matured enougk to reduce it to the level where it gets lost in the noise, I can't say for certain. My best guess is one to two percent. The rebuttals that refer to the primaries are ignoring that Democratic primary voters and presidential election voters are two very different groups of people. The former comprise ~15 - 20%* of the latter. Dems ignore this at their own peril.

Yes, there is always a convention bounce in the polls. There is rarely, if ever, a VP selection bounce in the polls and we are seeing one here. How this plays out for the 50 days remains to be seen, but Obama loses the Dem nomination without charisma, so he would be foolish to disregard that quality that Palin brings to the GOP campaign. Like Hillary she's (shoot me for this if you wish) an alpha female. Unlike Hillary, she's likable.

Who really gives a good goddam if a 70+ year old man is internet saavy? Did this somerhow become the only way to gather information in the 21st century? Using this as a talking point or an attack, even here in the tubes, is stupid, stupid, stupid.

Finally, if the Dems blow this one they have only themselves to blame. It would not shock me, I remember Ford making a race out of it with Carter. Remember Ford? The guy who pardoned the most despised man as America and as president presided over high (double digits?) inflation and unemployment and the fall of South Vienam.. The Dems still almost blew that one.

To the Democratic Party:
Don't blow this. I dom't like Obama, but without a Damn, you folks stayed up all night for this? WOW! I, on the other hand, am well rested, bright eyed and bushy tailed as it were. I'm able to compose clear, insightful analysis of what all of this really means and place in perxspective.

The Bradley effect. It's real. Whether the populace has matured enougk to reduce to the level where it gets lost in the noise, I can't say for certain. My best guess is one to two percent. The rebuttals that refer to the primaries are ignoring that Democratic primary voters and presidential election voters are two very different groups of people. The former comprise ~15 - 20% of the latter. Dems ignore this at their own peril.

Yes, there is always a convention bounce in the polls. There is rarely, if ever, a VP selection bounce in the polls and we are seeing one here. How this plays out for the 50 days remains to be seen, but Obama loses the Dem nomination without charisma, so he would be foolish to disregard that quality that Palin brings to the GOP campaign. Like Hillary she's (shoot me for this if you will) an alpha female. Unlike Hillary, she's likable.

Who really gives a good goddam if a 70+ year old man is internet saavy? Did this somerhow become the only way to gather information in the 21st century? Uses this as a talking point, even here in the tubes, is stupid, stupid, stupid.

Finally, if the Dems blow this one they have only themselves to blame. It would not shock me, I remember Ford making a race out of it with Carter. Remember Ford? The guy who pardoned the most despised man as America and was president presided over high (double digits?) inflation and unemployment. The Dems almost blew that one.

To the Democratic Party:
Don't blow this. I dom't like Obama, but without a guarantee of an early demise, I fear a McCain presidency.

* SWAG.

[BDB]

If the Democrats make this election all about Palin, that's how they'll lose.

[J sub D]

Disregard the second half repeat of all of that. I guess I'm not as bright eyed and bushy tailed as I thought. Y'all are smart enough to figger it out.

🙂

[JDM]

Yes JDM, this is 1980 and there are only three networks and they're all liberal!

Possibly you could explain what you're talking about here, and why it's relevant to my point.

There is no one "media" anymore.

Since "media" is and has always been a plural, I'd have to agree, except for the "anymore" part.

The ferocity, stupidity, personal meanness, and sheer made-upness of the anti-Palin talking points being echoed by the media* are so far beyond the pale, that they have turned enough women to McCain to tip the election. Men, as a rule, vote republican anyway.

*For the dim witted: media not participating in the embarrassing anti-Palin debacle did not contribute to the effect.

[BDB]

That'd be true only if you define media as "liberal bloggers".

[ed]

Damn, you folks stayed up all night for this?

No, I'm new to the party. Is everyone drunk?
I went to bed even before Saturday Night Live attempted once again to be funny or relevant. I did however see a clip of the lame Palin spoof that is getting raves amongst the easily amused. With the SNL comedy bar set so low a crippled midget could leap it, it's no wonder. Am I the only remaining human who thinks ultra-left comedy shows have become depressingly predictable?

[Lee Cruz]

I think the debate has turned into a pissing contest to show who is the best man rather than the election. You made it all too complicated and then too petty. The largest group are neither Republican or Democratic Partisans. To the average American, it doesn't matter that you need 60 votes in the senate. What does civics have to do with cable tv?

It doesn't matter that the MZM Supply went from 4 trillion to 8 trillion dollars in 7 years. How does that effect Nascar, The NFL, NBA? The fact that we bribed militia groups with guns, training and funds for peace in baghdad has nothing to do with winning gold medals in the olympics.

But they do know that things are really expensive now; their food and their gas especially. They notice that their ARMs went up and their oversized house is more expensive to heat. They know that wars don't end after 2 hours and the good guy comes back with both legs and arms. They know that George W. Bush and the Republicans have been in charge. They think whoever has a majority or sometimes whoever is the president is responsible.

That's why Obama is going to win, and that's all the Democrats have to repeat. "It's all their fault, they've been in charge and they did all this."

[SIV]

If the Democrats make this election all about Palin, that's how they'll lose.

They are. They will.

[joe]

McCain won the election? How long was I asleep?

No, really. It's true.

Apparently, the guy who beat the Clinton machine has no political skills.

[BDB]

To be fair, he had help from Bill. Given how "on" Bill was at the convention I'm seriously convinced he sunk Hillary on purpose for some warped reason.

[JDM]

McCain won the election? How long was I asleep?

Two weeks. That's all it took. It's all over but the shouting. (There will be plenty of that.)

That's damning with faint praise.

I just mean to say the man is very talented as a political candidate. It's too bad for him that he didn't wait another cycle or 2 to run.

[James Ard]

I guess ABC news is now one of the "liberal bloggers".

[BDB]

Yes ABC News, the network that had it's moderator get debate questions from Sean Hannity in March.

[joe]

People who can't tell the difference between some liberal bloggers, all liberal bloggers, the mainstream media, the Democratic Party, and the Obama campaign think the election is over.

We need to pay a great deal of attention to these voices, because they are persons of great insight.

[joe]

I guess ABC news is now one of the "liberal bloggers".

It's so unfair to ask Sarah Palin policy questions. I mean, it's not like she's Joe Biden or somebody.

Mmm, that's going to win an election: sympathy over the fact that the Republican vice presidential nominee looked dumb.

[James Ard]

Joe, sorry, but I don't see any difference in the entities listed above. And, yes the election is over, thanks to the Obama, Democratic, liberal media blogger campaign.

[BDB]

This is how it ends:

I think I've got a good read on how the final election will turn out. Democratic registration sweeps the west and puts Obama over the top there, and he eeks out a Jim Webb-like 1% win in Virginia. He loses Ohio, loses Michigan. Obama 274, McCain 264.

[James Ard]

When women are calling talk shows using terms like deposition and interrogation you're in trouble. I didn't think the interview was too out of line, but apparently some women did. Women Obama can't afford to lose.

[joe]

New Newsweek poll: Michelle Obama and Sarah Palin have almost exactly the same favorable/unfavorable ratings, and about 50-38.

In other words, Sarah Palin, whose personal popularity is now being sold as the key to the Republicans' victory, is viewed equally favorably as the woman whose "hatred of America" and general uppittyness was supposed to doom Barack Obama's chances.

The same poll has Biden right about at 50 favorable, with a slightly lower unfavorable.

Obama and McCain are both around 58% favorable.

[joe]

Ever notice how the people talking about how popular Palin is among women:

1. Never show any numbers, and

2. Are always men?

Odd, that.

[Elemenope]

The world never does end when you lose, nor when you win.

The world never ends until it does, at which point nobody will be around to say "I told you so". Nobody knows what the critical stress points are to knock the cycle of American Supremacy out of equilibrium are, and so it is a little airy to suggest that because of this there simply aren't any.

[ed]

it's not like she's Joe Biden or somebody

Joe who? Oh, the Invisible Running Mate?.

[joe]

Qunnipiac, September 11:

By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden.

[James Ard]

If favorability polls meant anything, Hillary would never had bothered running.

[BDB]

You're right, James, she shouldn't have. She lost because of that.

[James Ard]

joe, if you had ears you'd hear plenty of women talking about Palin. Try watching the Washington Journal one morning.

[James Ard]

BDB, she lost because the media became smitten with a smooth talking agent of CHANGE.

[BDB]

Gee, is there anything TheMedia CAN'T do?

[JDM]

McCain won the election? How long was I asleep?

No, really. It's true.

Remember a couple of weeks ago when you were patiently explaining to every one that the election was over because the polls indicated that the pool of uncommitted voters was too small for McCain to make of the difference?

Well, now the pool is gone. You may also notice that Rasmussen doesn't report leaners vs. commited votes anymore... I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure out why. (Hint: look at the last day he did report them.)

[joe]

If favorability polls meant anything, Hillary would never had bothered running.

Hillary lost.

But in the larger sense, yes, banking your political strategy on the personal favorability of someone is stupid. It gets even stupider if that someone is at the bottom of the ticket, and stupider still if that someone at the bottom of the ticket isn't actually viewed that favorably.

[James Ard]

The media can't take down Sarah Palin, regardless of how hard it is trying.

[joe]

When women are calling talk shows...

I don't need to stinking polls. This one chick called Rush...

[BDB]

So if Obama does win, then you can say right now it won't be because of TheMedia*, right?

(TheMedia is not to be confused with the media).

[joe]

Ah, but what does Tom Friedman's cab driver say about Sarah Palin?

[joe]

I love Washington Journal. I heard this one guy call in and ask which of the candidates would do something about the US government's weather machine in Alaska, which cause the earth quake in China.

[BDB]

Look, if Washington Journal was a representative example of public opinion, Ron Paul would the Republican nominee.

[JDM]

Ever notice how the people talking about how popular Palin is among women:

1. Never show any numbers, and

2. Are always men?

Odd, that.

http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/polls/approval-ratings/22541/polls-mccain-palin-winning-strong-support-from-indepedent-and-women-voters/

Before the Democratic National Convention in late August, Obama held an 8 percentage point lead among white women voters, 50 percent to 42 percent, but after the Republican convention in early September, McCain was ahead by 12 points among white women, 53 percent to 41 percent, the poll found.

Now, I'm not a mathematician, and I know that the margin of error on these polls is larger for sub-groups than the whole thing, but -(-8)+ 12 = 20. And that seems like a big numbner in a 3-4 point election.

[BDB]

In the same polls, it shows Obama/Biden gaining among men.

I wonder why that is?

Could it be because Republicans crying sexism reminds them of their psycho ex-girlfriend?

[joe]

"...after the Republican convention in early September..."

And we're already seeing those numbers come down, as the more-recent numbers I provided show.

Walter Mondale got a convention bump, too. He actually pulled even. And, of course, Walter Mondale was actually a nationally-known figure prior to that convention, so the press he got while it was going on was not the only exposure the public had to him, as opposed to Palin. Now, we're seeing what happens as Palin becomes better known.

We'll all just have to see how far Palin and McCain/Palin's falling numbers go. I think she ends up with the highest negatives of the four candidates in the race, and tied with Biden with the lowest positives.

[James Ard]

Hillary lost after blowing millions of dollars thinking that her 50% unfavorable rating wouldn't matter in a general election. Just another reason to believe her candidacy was nothing but a front to hide the strings to her puppet.

[joe]

And that seems like a big numbner in a 3-4 point election.

Yes, it does. So big as to not look plausible or sustainable, but more like something you'd see immediately after a convention.

[joe]

Just another reason to believe her candidacy was nothing but a front to hide the strings to her puppet.

Oh, right. James Ard, who doesn't think there is a difference between liberal bloggers, the Democratic Party, and the Obama campaign, has a little theory. YOU probably thought that Hillary's defeat in the primary demonstrated that the Mighty Clinton Machine didn't actually control the Democratic Party. Well...James, why don't you take it from here?

You're gonna love this.

[BDB]

Who's her puppet? TheMedia?

[joe]

Who's her puppet? TheMedia?

Oh, no. Just wait.

[joe]

Come on, James, don't let us down.

I love this theory, and I don't think I could do it justice by myself.

[JDM]

We'll all just have to see how far Palin and McCain/Palin's falling numbers go.

They aren't falling, McCain hit 50% in Rasmussen for the first time, and the leaners are gone, as I said.

[BDB]

Wait....he's going to say Obama is a stalking horse for the Clintons, isn't he?

[joe]

One poll, JDM.

In the aggregates - RealClearPolitics, CNN Poll of Polls - his national lead is dropping.

[Tom Friedman\'s cab driver]

Smokin'HOT!!!

And I love the way she is so morally conservative but doesn't try to use the guns of the state to enforce her beliefs on the populace.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"Tulpa that's quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read on this blog."

Indeed. It's the 12 years vs. 19 months thing Tulpa. You know, experience, that thing the McCain campaign screeched about for many many months...

This "liberal media" stuff is hilarious. Scott McClellen was on NPR the other day and was quite forthright about how the GOP sends talking point packages to the actual right wing media (Fox, Limbaugh, National Review, Washington Times, etc). They are actual appendages of a specific political party. On the other hand media outlets like the NYT or CBS may be staffed with folks who are more personally liberal than conservative but they do no come near the coordinated approach of the right wing media with the GOP.

joe
No, Obama is simply going to lose while Dems around the nation will be winning (or you could say he is losing while they are winning if we don't want to skip ahead). That is a good indicator of the fact that Obama is a weaker candidate than the Dems could have chosen.

As to WHY that will happen, I submit we start looking at how Obama is different than the winning candidates the Dems will field around the nation. He's to the left of most of them. He's black they are not. His name is funny there's are not. He is the product of urban politics they are not. Sure, I agree another difference is that McCain is a good candidate and that is part of it. But I submit the Dems had plenty of candidates that would have had less obvious liabilities than Obama, and given the GOP was on the defensive this year Obama's main card, the energizing of the Dem base, was simply superflous.

[James Ard]

If Obama had any real achievements I could believe he might think he's presidential material. But since he's done nothing, but get opponents kicked off ballots, someone else has to be behind his candidacy. It probably isn't the Clintons, but that's the funnest proposition. And God knows they're sleazy enough to try it.

[BDB]

I've got it! It's Bill Ayers! He's the PuppetMaster!

[Elemenope]

James Ard --

So...who was the shadowy puppet-master behind the Abraham Lincoln candidacy?

Inquiring minds, and all that.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

When a candidate underperfoms his party, that should indicate something...

Again, the amazing thing is not that this is occuring with Obama, but that Dem primary voters couldn't have foreseen this.

Again, imagine a video game where you could create your own candidate. Who would engage in the following exercise:

"Hmm, black guys have only won four state wide elections since Reconstruction, so I think I'll take some of that. Much of the US is xenophobic, so I'll take a biography that includes being raised in Indonesia and a Kenyan father...Hmmm, I'm really looking for that great smell that comes off most big city urban politicians, like the people they have to associate with to win in those environments....Since we are currently at war and have been in recent history with Muslim forces I could also use a Muslim name...Hmm, that Muslim name would really stand out if it had "Hussein", quite possibly the most demonized name in the US over the past 20 years (with the exception of Osama, so let's get one that is one letter off from that too). Now let's give him left of center rhetoric and voting record, since the left has done so well in elections...

Now let's top it off with a VP choice that has managed to generate 0% excitement and support in his past Presidential races, and let's play the game!

I mean, c'mon joe. Get real man.

[The Angry Optimist]

n the aggregates - RealClearPolitics, CNN Poll of Polls - his national lead is dropping.

That's not true for RCP. He's been up in the aggregate over there for an average of 2.5 for at least a week.

I'm sorry, but being down .1 from yesterday is a crappy standard for "dropping".

[joe]

You disappoint me, James.

James Ard | August 2, 2008, 1:12pm | #

Bill Clinton ran Obama as one of his three horses specifically because many in the press fear that criticizing him will get them disinvited to Washington parties. Did anyone see Bill's hispanic entree recently held a fundraiser for his female entree? When Richardson gets the VP nod will anyone doubt who's pulling the strings?

Personally, I think the puppetmaster behind Sarah Palin is...Bigfoot.

[joe]

TAO,

McCain's lead has dropped every day since September 8 in the RCP aggregate.

[The Angry Optimist]

joe - no it hasn't. It was +2.2 on 9/10 and it is +2.3 today.

Here's the chart.

[James Ard]

Come on joe, There's plenty more on my theory out there. I can't remember all of it, but I'll admit that post was one of the weaker ones.

[James Ard]

Of course it looks worse when you edit out the part about the Clintons being practicioners of Identity politics.

[BDB]

Sarah Palin is 1000% identity politics.

[srjenkins]

Mr. Nice Guy: And despite all that, he's raking in the money, and going to mop the floor with the personality-less McCain.

Take a look at RCP charts, looks like post convention spike is returning to normal, and he can only hide behind Palin until she becomes a liability - which shouldn't be real long now. The "I'm voting McCain because he has VPILF" voter is a pretty small demographic - particularly when blacks are showing up at the polls, and they will.

[joe]

TAO,

My bad. I meant McCain's numbers, not his lead. You're right.
It's still too early to say, but it looks like McCain's is dropping, while Obama, who was dropping, has either leveled off or is climbing.

James Ard,

Don't worry, the fact that you called Hillary Clinton "his female entree," Bill Richardson "his Hispanic entree," and Barack Obama "his black entree" makes the identity politics part of your theory perfectly clear.

[joe]

I don't know if Palin is going to become an actual liability - she got game, no question about that.

But she's still just the running mate. The V.P. nominee is going to be the story for just so long.

I have to hand it to McCain's team - they've managed to make the press forget about him for a couple of solid weeks now. Let's see how long they can play this out.

[James Ard]

But you edited that out too. I probably should have said the Hispanic candidate that doesn't look hispanic and has an english name, the black candidate that is actually half white, and the female candidate that has more male attributes that female.

[BDB]

Joe, when will liberals (the bloggers, the commentators, not the Obama campaign) stop talking about Palin? Will they ever?

[J sub D]

James Ard,

Don't feel bad, I'm on record predicting a Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani contest. I'm also on record saying No way can the Dems blow this one. I'm sticking with my Hillary Rudy prediction, just it'll be in 2012. But I now concede that the Democratic Party can indeeed blow this one. Not solely for the reasons MNG cites, but also because incompetence and overreach has burnt the donkey party before.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but leftist fellow travelers of the Obama attacking Palin sure looks like a self inflicted wound right now.

The punditocracy of the right pretty much ignored Biden because it's easy to do and his record and personality are anything but threatening.

[BDB]

"I'm on record predicting a Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani contest."

Wasn't everyone?

That really puts in perspective how much worse it could have been. Thanks.

[The Worst Possible Outcome]

Huckabee v. Edwards.

[Episiarch]

the female candidate that has more male attributes that female

What are those? Did I miss her Adam's apple or the bulge in her pants?

[James Ard]

I'll second that. The authoritarian the GOP got is way less scary than Giulaini.

[James Ard]

Drat, my typo is following me. Maybe there's no buldge, but there's bound to be some balls around there somewhere.

[ed]

when will liberals stop talking about Palin?

November 5th?

[J sub D]

when will liberals stop talking about Palin?

November 5th?

Only if Obama wins. Have they ever stopped talking about that @#*&^! Cheney?

[capelza]

J sub D

If ANYONE stopped talking about Cheney for the last two terms, then that's their mistake. You think he's just been cutting ribbons and going to funerals? Seriously?

[BDB]

"You think he's just been cutting ribbons and going to funerals? Seriously?"

That's all Palin will do, that's for sure.

And serve as a shiny object for the base when McCain nominates David Souter part II.

[ed]

Only one thing is for certain: by January 1st the Chattering Class will either have forgotten "Sarah Who?" altogether or they will be licking their chops in anticipation over the first inevitable She-shot-him-in-the-face! incident.*

*I'd be willing to bet she's a better shot than Cheney, however.
For one thing, I doubt she hunts drunk.
For another, caribou do not resemble lawyers, who more closely resemble ferrets.

[Ebeneezer Scrooge]

This has been an interesting comment string which has substantially missed the main fact.

I think you're right about that one.

[J sub D]

You think he's just been cutting ribbons and going to funerals? Seriously?

That's all Palin will do, that's for sure.

And serve as a shiny object for the base when McCain nominates David Souter part II.

You may be right. Still, I would be wary of underestimating this woman. History teaches that the ladies can be every bit as cutthroat and power amassing as men when the opportunity presents itself.

That's why we have to keep them down. 😉

[Brian Courts]

"You think he's just been cutting ribbons and going to funerals? Seriously?"

That's all Palin will do, that's for sure.

Until McCain kicks off. If he's gonna, better hope it's in the first half of his term so she can only run once herself. Worst case he goes on Jan 21st 2011 and you get a full 10 years of her.

[Matilda]

"Please. We won't have any idea whether things are working or not until the Palin business gets sorted"

Palin "business"? WTF is that?

[BDB]

Again, McCain's mother is 96 and still kicking. She's not even in a nursing home.

His father lived into his 90s.

That guy is gonna live forever.

[ed]

an interesting comment string which has substantially missed the main fact

OMG! Like, that never happens!

[Jennifer]

If the Republicans started a worldwide thermonuclear war and then put Zombie Hitler on their presidential ticket, the Democrats would still find a way to lose.

[Matilda]

""Just what continent do you folks think Alaska is part of?""

That reminds me of the dig at Palin that she hasn't traveled abroad. So she's an incurious hick. But just ask yourself, how many small town mothers with four kids can afford airfair from Alaska to Amsterdam? I suppose she could have done so as governor but she didn't, which I really respect.

[Zombie Hitler]

We must protect the Homeland from the Terrorist threat at all costs! Every terrorist we kill over there is one less terrorist over here!

[Sambo]

"How many of us are doing better now than when Clinton was president?"

I am, but that's anecdotal.

"My parents both have their own businesses which were thriving eight years ago, now they are barely getting by."

Again, anecdotal.

[VIKINGS SUCK!]

EOM

[capelza]

Matilda..many mothers with four kids get $3,269.00 apiece ($16,345.00 total)? The Palin's raked in more than that...

Every small town mother in Alaska, every person who is a resident of Alsaka gets the dosh.

[And the Redskins won.]

ZOMBIE RADIOACTIVE HITLER / ROMNEY in '16!

[Cheap Shot]

If the Republicans started a worldwide thermonuclear war and then put Zombie Hitler on their presidential ticket, the Democrats would still find a way to lose.

That's just because Republican Zombie Hitler will only alienate those with brains!!!

[BDB]

If you think this country is better off now than it was in 2000, you're either a shill or a retard.

[J sub D]

I hate polls and pollsters. Maybe it's irrational like my hatred for capybaras, but it's there.

Anyway, this results in my doing one of two things when polled. Decline to answer or lie like a rug. In this small way I help make polls less reliable and the pollsters less valuable. Hopefully more people will adopt my methods and we can finally put an end to this scourge of constant polling by multiple firms and start discussing why both candidates have flaws that disqualify them from elected office.

If polled, lie. The more outrageous the lie, the better. I'm voting for the American Nazi Party or the Greens both work. Encouraging losers like this is a good thing due to the disappointment they will feel when election results trash their delusional hopes.

Please join with me in this noble crusade.

[Enough About Palin]

"Sometimes I think half the people in the forum are barely old enough to have paid a lot of taxes yet."

I have. And it sucks.

[News from the future!]

If polled, lie. The more outrageous the lie, the better. I'm voting for the American Nazi Party...

"Earlier today SWAT teams acted on a tip that resulted from an NSA phone wiretap and raided the home of the Nazi supporter known online as 'J sub D'. When the subject of the investigation insisted on asking the incredibly dangerous question, 'Why are you doing this?', the police officers found it necessary to fire their 50-cal. machine gun in order to, in the words of the chief of police, 'preserve officer safety'. The remains of Mr. sub D were then placed in a coffee can and forwarded to his next of kin.

The governor has released a statement calling it, 'an isolated incident'. "

[Episiarch]

Please join with me in this noble crusade.

I'm already there.

[Matilda]

"Nope, neither the mayor nor the city council has the power to do that. Just the librarian. So...remind us...what happened that that librarian?

Was it ultimately banned, Joe?

[Your Favorite Queer]

"Daddy's Roommate"

If Daddy had any balls at all he'd openly use the word wife.

But "Roommate"? Fucking pussy.

[joshua corning]

3. Michael Young. Predictions about democratic elections. 'Nuff said.

I would not talk Joe...some of us were around in 2004.

[World\'s Oldest Line]

"If Daddy had any balls at all..."

If Daddy didn't have any balls, he'd be Mommy

[People who didn\'t vote for To]

Please join with me in this noble crusade.

I'm already there.

Dude, like you said upthread, we were there a quarter century ago.

[joe]

Would that be 2004, when the only prediction I made was that the election would be close, while you were proclaiming that Bush would win in a landslide?

Was it ultimately banned, Joe? Was Hillarycare ultimately adopted? The answer to both is, "No, she was not able to push through the policy she tried to implement." Is it meant to be an argument for Palin that her ideas were too authoritarian and far-right for Alaska, Matilda?

J sub D, I think it's far too early to say that we can judge the efficacy of attacking Palin in hindsight. She was introduced two weeks ago, she started getting her first bad press four days ago.

But far more important than any of that, Matt Cassel is reminding me a lot of Tom Brady in 2001. Lots of short passes and screens, to lots of different receivers.

[Randi Rhodes]

"No, it's 2008. You have dozens of radio talk show hosts blasting RNC talking points every weekday for hours on end"

But she wants to fuck high school boys! High school boys!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B--bj01CYR8

[Jacob]

Democrats utopian? Never.

[Granger]

"Yes, it does. So big as to not look plausible or sustainable, but more like something you'd see immediately after a convention."

The convention was nearly two weeks ago. Please define immediate? Thanks in advance.

[Granger]

"Scott McClellen"

Scott McClellen? Scott "boy do I have an ax to grind 'cause I was Bush's bitch until he pushed me out of a moving car" McClellen?

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"Every small town mother in Alaska, every person who is a resident of Alsaka gets the dosh."

So what does a gallon of milk cost up there?

Or a ticket from Fairbanks to Amsterdam?

[Sambo]

"If you think this country is better off now than it was in 2000, you're either a shill or a retard."

You left out business savvy.

[BDB]

Is flying from Alaska really anymore difficult than flying from Seattle or Vancouver?

[BDB]

Well, SIV, not all of us can make our money on cock fighting.

[Jeremiah]

Granger,

Excellent point! McClellen does have an ax to grind, and it's probably mere coincidence that the right-wing media use the exact same points, often with the exact same wording.

Nothing to see here, move along...

[nellie]

NO matter what some of you are saying, whether Obama wins or looses,it just goes to show that we, the American People are not smart at all. How soon we forget how McCain fought for illegal immigration, amnesty for all. If he wins, all of you who are illegal, you've got it made.

[Sambo]

"You left out business savvy."

And I left off hardworking.

[BDB]

Thanks, Sambo Phil Gramm.

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"Is flying from Alaska really anymore difficult than flying from Seattle or Vancouver?"

Maybe not for the pilots. I was addressing cost.

[Sambo]

"Thanks, Sambo (Sambo crossed out) Phil Gramm."

Busted! Yes, I'm Phil Gramm.

BTW, how do you guys do that line through the text thing?

[Renton]

"...all of you who are illegal, you've got it made..."

If only that were true - drug warrior McCain will eagerly jail all of us who indulge in the same things his wife has, even if we don't use fraud and theft to do so.

[J sub D]

joe,
Check this out.

[J sub D]

< s >line out< /s >.
Without the spaces.

[HTML Tutorial]

BTW, how do you guys do that line through the text thing?

http://www.htmlcodetutorial.com/_STRIKE.html

[TallDave]

Now ABC has noticed the Obama ad mocking McCain's war-inury-related computer problems:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/why-doesnt-mcca.html

McCain did once describe himself as computer "illiterate" and dependent upon his wife for computer assistance, but there's more to the tale than that.
...
Assuredly McCain isn't comfortable talking about this -- and the McCain campaign discouraged me from writing about this -- but the reason the aged Arizonan doesn't use a computer or send email is because of his war wounds.
...
He can type, he occasionally does type, but in general the injuries he sustained as a POW -- ones that make it impossible for him to raise his arms high enough to comb his hair -- mean that small tasks make his shoulders ache, so he tries to avoid any repetitive exercise.

You stay classy, Obama campaign!

[SIV]

BDB | September 14, 2008, 5:07pm | #
Well, SIV, not all of us can make our money on cock fighting.

Are you answering one of my old comments on another thread again BDB?

[Kolohe]

Orbitz sez:

Seattle to Amsterdam

$584 + $400 in taxes and fees = $984 total

LA (area) to Amsterdam

$717 + $179 taxes and fees = $896 total

Anchorage to Amsterdam

$915 + $189 taxes and fees = $1104 total.

All are one stop (each way) roundtrip tickets for a two week stay starting about 5 weeks from now.

Going to Fairbanks adds another leg and about $200 to the total cost.

The only reason I am posting this is: does anyone have any idea why the first trip taxes and fees are more than doubled? (400 vice 189?) The characteristics of all the journeys are identical; and they all connect through a CONUS airport. Does Luftansa have a fuel surcharge or something?

[Obama For President]

Hard work.

Wrong for BDB

Wrong for America

[prolefeed]

The type of candidate who can win an election is someone with political skills, someone who's an excellent communicator, and someone who can convey a message that appeals to people. Period. Full stop.

Sorry, joe, but this doesn't match up with objective reality. I've run for political office. I've talked to thousands of people on the campaign trail.

What you mentioned matters to a significant minority, but all sorts of other irrational or irrelevant things cause people to vote. People literally vote based on race or gender or other identity politics. People vote based on who has more yard signs up. Seriously, some people actually do that. They vote on whether you're good-looking. And on and on and on.

The wonder is that democracy is robust enough to stagger on despite all this idiocy behind who gets picked to run stuff.

[Barack Obama]

These people in small towns, they're bitter, and so they cling to their guns and religion and pigs and lipstick.

But not John McCain. John McCain is old and crippled, and thus too feeble to cling to anything!

I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.

[Kolohe]

Well I guess the links don't work (they'll just goto whatever your last search was)

As another data point Honolulu to Amsterdam is $764 + only $184 (vice 189) in taxes a fees for $949 total

[Jim Walsh]

(jtuf)

Pointing at the "other side" and making insults is a classic way to rally your side.

Don't lump me in with the Obama crowd; I'm a non-participant (and proud of it)...

[Qbryzan]

Who really gives a good goddam if a 70+ year old man is internet saavy?

I don't.

I do, however, give a good goddam if a presidential candidate is not, or if a senator that's part of the legislative body that passed the DMCA (just to pick 1 example) doesn't know what the fuck he's voting about.

But if you remove the ignorance, or the power, from the government official in question, then I have no objection.

[Barak Obama]

"Obama For President | September 14, 2008, 5:37pm | #

Hard work.

Wrong for BDB

Wrong for America"

I'm Barak Obama and I approve this ad.

Supporting material:

The latest data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Internal Revenue Service show that the lowest 40 percent of income earners as a group actually receive net payments from the federal income tax system. (They get 3.8 percent of total federal income tax revenues instead of paying any income taxes.) The middle 20 percent of income earners pay 4.4 percent of federal income taxes. Thus the bottom 60 percent of income earners together, on net, pay less than 1 percent of all federal income taxes. (These workers earn 26 percent of national income.)?

When Obama says that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans, he is talking about his proposal for a $500 refundable income tax credit for all but the top 5 percent of income earners. For the bottom 40 percent of income earners, this will be just another check from the federal government rather than a reduction in tax liability. It is another sharp increase in government spending rather than any sort of tax cut. An arbitrary cash grant does not, moreover, do anything to improve the economy or incentivize productive business. That only comes from cutting tax rates. What Obama is proposing here is really quite similar to George McGovern's 1972 plan to send everyone a $1,000 check, which voters rightly saw as a crass vote-buying scheme rather than serious policy."

[J sub D]

The wonder is that democracy is robust enough to stagger on despite all this idiocy behind who gets picked to run stuff.

prolefeed,

Didn't you and I touch on this earlier in the week? I was in a down on humanity/people are stupid mood at the time.

BTW, I'm unable to figure out your handle. If it's not too much bother ...

[capelza]

Oh Tall Dave...

Poor McCain, does he need someone to feed him as well?

If he can lift his blackberry to his ear and drive and sit at a table with a knife and fork and lift a glass of bubbly or coffee...

He can type an e-mail.

Be careful of making him so weak people will question his readiness for the Presidency.

But this is not what Obama was doing and you know it.

[capelza]

Oh, and Tall Dave, he was fracking flying jets after his release and recovery.

[Lefiti]

Michigan has the worst economy in the country and hasn't voted Republican since 1988. MCCain (a Republican) is tying Barack Obama in the Michigan Polls. Why do you suppose that is? Hint: It isn't because Michigan folks want to be nice and give the Republicans another chance.

[Gaviidae]

" MCCain (a Republican) is tying Barack Obama in the Michigan Polls."

All tied up in Minnesota too.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html?elr=KArks:DCiUBcy7hUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

From 1932 onward, the Minnesota has primarily voted Democratic, last voting Republican during Nixon's landslide victory in 1972. In 1984, Minnesotans gave homegrown Senator Mondale his only state in the lopsided loss to Ronald Reagan. Despite this history of being "blue", the 2000 election turned out quite close, with Al Gore defeating bush by only 2.5%. In 2004, the results in Minnesota were again close, with John Kerry defeating George Bush by 3.5%. While not currently considered a swing state for 2008, recent history suggests it could be a close count, depending on the nominees.

http://www.270towin.com/states/Minnesota

[Wild Guess]

Why do you suppose that is? Hint: It isn't because Michigan folks want to be nice and give the Republicans another chance.

Is it because Michigan voters think he's the guy Bruce Willis played in the Die Hard movies?

"Yippie Ka Yea....Democrats!"

[SIV]

The latest data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Internal Revenue Service show that the lowest 40 percent of income earners as a group actually receive net payments from the federal income tax system.

If they have no dependents and don't itemize they pay a substantial tax on their meager earnings.Especially when you add in the FICA tax as the true %15.3.

[J sub D]

I do, however, give a good goddam if a presidential candidate is not, or if a senator that's part of the legislative body that passed the DMCA (just to pick 1 example) doesn't know what the fuck he's voting about.

If you expect a politician to not rely on staff (or others) for the info used to formulate positions on policy you must be disappointed often.

Q. What does Obama know about the military?
A. What staff (or others) tell him.

[Very Old Gymnast]

"Oh, and Tall Dave, he was fracking flying jets after his release and recovery."

Just how old are you? Because you really lack insight on this one.

As a gymnast competing internationally, I blew out my knee back in 1981 at the age of 24. After recovery, I was able to tumble a bit (as a coach demonstrating technique). But now? Sometimes it hurts just walking to the kitchen.

[Michigan]

"Is it because Michigan voters think he's the guy Bruce Willis played in the Die Hard movies?

"Yippie Ka Yea....Democrats!""

Michigan

Because we're just that stupid

"I'm Barak Obama and I approve this ad.

[Qbryzan]

If you expect a politician to not rely on staff (or others) for the info used to formulate positions on policy you must be disappointed often.

Sadly that is very true.

How about we shrink their power/responsibilities until it reaches the point where they can understand what they're doing?

The alternative, which I don't personally support, is to vote based on the entire group of people.

[J sub D]

How about we shrink their power/responsibilities until it reaches the point where they can understand what they're doing?

If you want an argument, you'll have to take a different position. 😉

[Matilda]

"Sadly that is very true.

How about we shrink their power/responsibilities until it reaches the point where they can understand what they're doing?

The alternative, which I don't personally support, is to vote based on the entire group of people."

But that's true everywhere. My boss is the president of a fortune 100 company who relies heavily on input from his staff. The only way he could overcome that and do it on his own would be to be at work studying the business 1,500 hours a day.

[Tom Freidman\'s Cabby]

Smoking hot, but she reminds of that girl from Minnesota I dated with the annoying voice who argued with me in that gratingly annoying voice for a half an hour when I asked her to take her top off. I finally said, 'shh, shh, shh. Keep the top on.'

She asked, 'don't you want to see my boobs?'

I replied that it was just not worth it.

[One of Tom Freidman\'s Six Gar]

"Smoking hot, but she reminds of that girl from Minnesota I dated with the annoying voice who argued with me in that gratingly annoying voice for a half an hour when I asked her to take her top off. I finally said, 'shh, shh, shh. Keep the top on.'

She asked, 'don't you want to see my boobs?'

I replied that it was just not worth it."

I remember her!

[jtuf]

Jim Walsh | September 14, 2008, 5:44pm | #

(jtuf)

Pointing at the "other side" and making insults is a classic way to rally your side.

Don't lump me in with the Obama crowd; I'm a non-participant (and proud of it)...

Sorry about misclassifying you. Although, I would still appreciate if there were fewer insults on the blog and more policy and strategy discussion.

[Qbryzan]

But that's true everywhere. My boss is the president of a fortune 100 company...

Get back to me when I am forced to do business with your fortune 100 company. Until then, it is most certainly not true everywhere.

[alan]

Didn't you and I touch on this earlier in the week? I was in a down on humanity/people are stupid mood at the time.

The key to wisdom and maturity is learning to love all of God's people for the squalid shit fuckers we are.

[Matilda]

"Get back to me when I am forced to do business with your fortune 100 company. Until then, it is most certainly not true everywhere."

Why would we force you to do anything? You make no sense.

Quality managers hire and rely upon quality people no matter the company's size. You disagree?

[Tom Freidman\'s Caddy]

I much preferred that girl from Long Island who looked a bit like Fran Dreiser. Voice was a little annoying, but, va va va voom, no Social Conservative was she!

[Qbryzan]

Why would we force you to do anything? You make no sense.

I'm guessing you are new here, Matilda.

You are comparing private industry with public government. Care to guess the difference?

[prolefeed]

Didn't you and I touch on this earlier in the week? I was in a down on humanity/people are stupid mood at the time.

BTW, I'm unable to figure out your handle. If it's not too much bother ...

J sub D -- I'm not always down on humanity, but I have been exposed to the full brunt of how people actually vote, and for the most part it ain't pretty.

My handle is from Orwell's "1984". It's a rather contemptuous phrase that the ruling class from that dystopic society uses to refer to all the rubbishy propaganda, entertainment, music, and pornography that the ruling class generates for the proles, in an attempt to manipulate them and keep them from ever quite thinking about why they're so oppressed by their hardcore statist rulers.

It's like the opposite of what Reason.com does.

I preferred "crimethink", but that was already taken. And "prolefeed" is one of the few Newspeak words that is blunt and candid.

Maybe I'll pick a different handle some day -- "doubleplusgood duckspeaker", though long, is another of those rare Newspeak phrases that dares to be openly contemptous and candid. "Minitrue" has its charms, too.

[prolefeed]

The key to wisdom and maturity is learning to love all of God's people for the squalid shit fuckers we are.

Threadwinner! Laughed so hard I cried.

[Matilda]

"I'm guessing you are new here, Matilda.

You are comparing private industry with public government. Care to guess the difference?"

There isn't any. Money talks, bullshit walks. But just for novelty's sake, how about you tell us.

[Granger]

"You are comparing private industry with public government. Care to guess the difference?"

I'm guessing it's because private industry makes you do stuff and government doesn't.

[Captain James T. Kirk]

"I'm guessing it's because private industry makes you do stuff and government doesn't."

Damn you Madison Avenue!

[Jerry]

Michigan voters are leaning Republican because they think Bush will give the auto companies a bail out.

[Qbryzan]

There isn't any. Money talks, bullshit walks. But just for novelty's sake, how about you tell us.

Exactly - if I don't like the direction an organization is taking, there's no difference between:

Private Corporation:
I don't give them any more of my money.(aka: money walks)

Public Government:
I continue to give them my money, and I try as hard as I can to change the person who spends it, and hope that somehow makes a difference. (aka: bullshit continues, as does money)

Yep, same exact thing.

[BakedPenguin]

Michigan voters are leaning Republican because they think Bush will give the auto companies a bail out.

Didn't know he was running this election. I guess he really did see a soul mate when he looked in Putin's eyes.

[Matilda]

"Exactly - if I don't like the direction an organization is taking, there's no difference between:

Private Corporation:
I don't give them any more of my money.(aka: money walks)

Public Government:
I continue to give them my money, and I try as hard as I can to change the person who spends it, and hope that somehow makes a difference. (aka: bullshit continues, as does money)

Yep, same exact thing."

"Qbryzan | September 14, 2008, 6:13pm | #

If you expect a politician to not rely on staff (or others) for the info used to formulate positions on policy you must be disappointed often.

Sadly that is very true."

My point was that quality managers -- whether in private industry or govenrment -- are most successful when they hire, retain and rely upon quality people. I asked if you disagree. You have yet to answer that question. Is there something inherently wrong with that management/governance model? If so, what is it?

[Matilda]

Addendum:

Do you even have the slightest idea just how intertwined government and Fortune 100 companies are? I am. My boss shoots pheasant with governors. Just a governor, my boss and one body guard in an open field (and all three have a rifle or gun). How close can YOU and a gun get to a governor? US Senators court his favors and wealth. That was the gist of my money talks bullshit walks comment. As GrandMaster Flash told us "It's all about money, ain't a damn thing funny."

[Qbryzan]

Matilda,

Your point is...(wait for it)...pointless..., because you don't understand the difference between voluntary and involuntary. (hint: it's the difference between your biceps and your heart, biologically speaking)

Feel free to troll everyone else here, but I'm done for the night.

J sub D,

Nice talking to you. Perhaps we can disagree on something else in the future 😉

[Tom Friedmans\'s Hard Hat Oogl]

Every afternoon at lunch time, I sit on the cross beam eating my salad, and

Tom Friedman saunters by with his gorgeous hefty belly sashaying side to

side while he chomps down on an Arby's double roast beef with extra au jus

sauce. Meaty strings of beef glisten between his teeth, crumbs get lodged in

manly folds of whiskers, and gravy drips down on his tie and white shirt.

Damn, what a pretty sight!

It's only after he walks past me that I let out a loud cat call so I can

watch those beautiful flabby cheeks tighten up and billow like two Garfield

sized cats fighting under pillows.

Oh, Tom, you coyly yell out for the nearest cop but you and I both know that

you enjoy every minute of it.

[J sub D]

Michigan voters are leaning Republican because they think Bush will give the auto companies a bail out.

It doesnb't fuckin' matter who wins in November. The big 3 are getting 25 billion in loan guarantees. Obama and McCain have already signed off on it, we have a Democratic congress and both the auto executives and the UAW are for it.

If it stays as low as 25 billion I'll be surprised.

[Tom Friedman\'s Bootblack]

"Matilda,

Your point is...(wait for it)...pointless..., because you don't understand the difference between voluntary and involuntary. (hint: it's the difference between your biceps and your heart, biologically speaking)

Feel free to troll everyone else here, but I'm done for the night."

Translation: I'm not going to answer her actual question as long as I can keep humping this here strawman.

[Jerry]

@BakedPenguin
He'll become McCain's prime minister 🙂

[Another Tom Friedman Gardner]

Translation: I'm not going to answer her actual question as long as I can keep humping this here strawman.

Let me tell you, it chafes something fierce.

[James Anderson Merritt]

# J sub D | September 14, 2008, 6:09pm | #
## I do, however, give a good goddam
## if a presidential candidate is not,
## or if a senator that's part of the
## legislative body that passed the DMCA
## (just to pick 1 example) doesn't know
## what the fuck he's voting about.

# If you expect a politician to not rely
# on staff (or others) for the info used
# to formulate positions on policy you must
# be disappointed often.

What disappoints me is that the casual use of, indeed the need for, large numbers of staffers to "help" our House Reps and Senators is indicative of how out-of-control the legislative branch has become, yet so many people seem to accept this sorry situation as just "the way things are." I think we'd be a lot better off if we did require our elected officials to be personally responsible for reading and understanding the legislation they voted to approve. Sure, get help from staff, other legislators, constituents, or other knowledgeable or interested parties, but at the end of the day, if you can't convince your constituents that you know what you voted for, then your vote on whatever it was should be canceled out, and perhaps you should be automatically recalled as well.

Federal bills are generally too long and complicated, and there are way too many of them. The congress is doing far more than it needs to do, including a lot of what we need it NOT to do -- things that are either not specifically permitted, or are outright prohibited, by the Constitution. This must end, and it will probably end, one way or the other, relatively soon, but I am disappointed by the lack of citizen outrage.

I always thought there was a bit of genius in the decision to put the federal capital in a humid swamp. Make it a chore to serve so that no fixed governing culture could arise, because everyone who could would be in a hurry to get the minimum job done and leave.

Sadly, air conditioning put the kibosh on that. Just as it enabled people in torrid climates to become more comfortable and (economically) productive, it has allowed the kudzu of federal government to establish a permanent stronghold in the beltway zone.

Maybe it is not guns that need to be against the law in DC, but air conditioners.

[The Tinman]

Translation: I'm not going to answer her actual question as long as I can keep humping this here strawman.

Let me tell you, it chafes something fierce.

Use some 3-in-1 (TM) oil, and you should be able to take care of that.

Or, um, so I've heard.

[Sambo]

"Feel free to troll everyone else here, but I'm done for the night."

Matilda's a troll? Project much?

[matt2]

You'd have to get by me and my gun to take my air conditioner away in this paved swamp, James.

[Lavinia Weissman]

As a born and bred Bake Beaner, INDEPENDENT, hopefully the Demoncrats can beat the "curse," and I can go celebrate with Johnny Pesky.

I find myself losing patients for American rude behavior and hope intelligence and logic may reign in this election over emotion and bad voting equipment.

I no longer tell people who to vote for. I ask them on what basis, they are making their decision and will it lead to an improvement in education, health and sustainability of more people in this country? To me the answers to this question are simply going to have us select the best possible choice since the bad choice is obvious if you can smile, read and show you are intelligent.

As someone often accused of being a Libertarian, I an looking for a new description for myself and others who work hard and simply don't want tax dollars spent on insanity most people in this country don't want.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

"If the Republicans started a worldwide thermonuclear war and then put Zombie Hitler on their presidential ticket, the Democrats would still find a way to lose."

Maybe they'd pick a black guy with an Islamic middle name and a far out childhood whose buds with insane black nationalists and hippie anarchists and has little expereince doing jack in national politics?

Re: Michigan. Any Michigan native who would vote GOP in 08 is a damn fool. Of course, there are many damn fools in that state and the other 49 (no offense J sub D, I live in one of those states too!).

[Jerry]

Talking about epic fails, I'm already getting the popcorn out for tomorrow's market crash. Schadenfreude FTW.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Democratic Primary Voter:
"Uh, Hello potential President Warner or potential President Bayh etc.,, you just don't excite us, so we choose some dipshit guy who is in no way ready to be President and was concocted in some lab to make Dems seem way out and goofy to average non-urban Americans. We hate having anyone we agree with in the White House."

Jesus joe, why not just nominate Barney Frank?

[Barack Obama]

You can't put lipstick on a bitter pig that clings to guns and religion, especially if you're old and crippled like John McCain.

I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.

[Kolohe]

Talking about epic fails, I'm already getting the popcorn out for tomorrow's market crash.

Prediction:

DJIA finishes tomorrow up 55 +/- 10 points.

[John Hinckley]

How close can YOU and a gun get to a governor?

You'd be surprised.

P.S. Hey Jodie, I get out soon! IT WAS ALL FOR YOU BABY!

[BDB]

Yes, my lack of hard work is what changed gas prices from 99 cents a gallon at the turn of the century to $4/gallon today.

[BDB]

If we all worked harder, the dollar would magically become stronger, too!

I guess the American people are just lazy.

[Milton Friedman\'s left ball]

Greenspan is a fucking traitor. Viva Pinochet!

[BDB]

I say we cede Michigan to Canada and let them bail out the Big Two and a Half.

[joe]

Heh, TallDave thinks he's found another magic bullet to save McCain.

Funny how one side keeps looking for them.

[7]

All tied up in Minnesota too.

Wow. Minnesota has historically been to the left of Ho Chi Minh. If even Minnesota is a toss-up, it's a good sign Obama is toast.

[joe]

I saw that earlier, J sub D. That's really going to help with the gender gap, eh? Really shine up that pander pick for them.

Minnestoa. LOL. You need to stop looking at single polls that tell you what you want to hear.

There has not been a poll released that showed anything but an Obama lead since March, including at least one other poll that's come out since the convention.

[Enough About Palin]

"Let me tell you, it chafes something fierce."

Agreed. I would also agree that an executive skill set can easily move between the private and public sector. Bloomberg and Romney to name just two, political ideologies notwithstanding.

[SIV]

BDB, you have to get with the no inflation program and eat,gas up and live in digital storage devices. They're cheaper by far!

Seriously everything points to deflation, gas prices are a lagging indicator. It is a great time to be alive if you have a job, a pile of liquid cash and are armed.

[BDB]

I don't know man food prices seem to be pretty fucking high. That's the thing that pisses me off most about the economy right now. The grocery store.

I'm not blaming any political party for it (I think it's irrelevant) but the economy was stronger at the turn of the century than now.

[BDB]

And can I just say it's a ginormous cop-out that the federal government leaves food and energy prices out of their inflation figures? Those are two pretty important things to leave out.

[DannyK]

Jesus, I just popped by Calculated Risk and saw that Merrill Lynch is getting bought up, Lehman's declaring bankruptcy, and AIG is asking the Fed for a bailout. Maybe economic apocalypse will push Palin off the front page.

[Enough About Palin]

"If we all worked harder, the dollar would magically become stronger, too!

I guess the American people are just lazy."

Will Americans working harder improve all incomes? Not in the aggregate, but individually, yes. Or are you saying hard work is a fool's errand?

[BDB]

Hard work is important. It just pays off better in a good economy than in a bad one. Get it?

[BDB]

"Jesus, I just popped by Calculated Risk and saw that Merrill Lynch is getting bought up, Lehman's declaring bankruptcy, and AIG is asking the Fed for a bailout."

Jesus. The Fed better pull something out of it's ass before the Dow crashes.

[Enough About Palin]

"Minnestoa. LOL. You need to stop looking at single polls that tell you what you want to hear.

There has not been a poll released that showed anything but an Obama lead since March, including at least one other poll that's come out since the convention."

True, not a lead per se, but definitely within the margin of error.

July 24 - MINNESOTA: Obama 46 - McCain 44

Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1195

[Enough About Palin]

"Hard work is important. It just pays off better in a good economy than in a bad one. Get it?"

I respectfully disagree.

[BDB]

Minnesota goes red the day Massachusetts does.

In fact I think MN has a longer record of voting Dem than even Mass!

[Brandybuck]

That's why Obama is going to win, and that's all the Democrats have to repeat. "It's all their fault, they've been in charge and they did all this."

Except "they" haven't been in charge. Congress is in charge and Democrats have been in control of both the House and the Senate for the past two years. Before they got control they gave Bush everything he asked for, and after they got in control they did more of the same.

[SIV]

The Fed has nothing left to pull. They could print but that is a lot of what got us into this mess.
It is world wide though so we should come out better than most.A crash and capitulation is the right time to buy.Just wait until you think the most self-destructive insane thing to do is buy equities, then buy them.Easier said than done.

[Theresa Klein]

We can be pretty sure that Obama will get at least the 43% of the vote that would never vote for a Republican even if hell froze over.

He's the Democratic nominee, so anyone wedded to the fortunes of the Democratic party is morally bound to not just vote for him, but defend him to the last breath. He isn't going anywhere, and it's senseless to pronounce his doom or declare that the "phenom" is over, cause the Democrats will keep puffing air into it until election day.

Of coruse, he could still loose, but his base support isn't going to just up and vanish like Howard Deans at this point.

[BDB]

".Just wait until you think the most self-destructive insane thing to do is buy equities, then buy them."

That's the real trick, isn't it? We do need a good crash, as painful as it will be.

[BDB]

"Except "they" haven't been in charge. Congress is in charge and Democrats have been in control of both the House and the Senate for the past two years. Before they got control they gave Bush everything he asked for, and after they got in control they did more of the same."

And they'll give McCain everything he wants, too. Seriously the Dems suck balls as an opposition party. They have zero spine. If the shoe were on the other foot and Bush were a Democrat he would have been removed from office in 2007.

[Grandpa Withers]

"Get it?"

BDB, Knowledge Keeper.

[Sambo]

"BDB, Knowledge Keeper."

LOL! Is that like one of those fundamentalist Promise Keepers?

[Theresa Klein]

Barack Obama: "When Obama says that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans, he is talking about his proposal for a $500 refundable income tax credit for all but the top 5 percent of income earners. For the bottom 40 percent of income earners, this will be just another check from the federal government rather than a reduction in tax liability. It is another sharp increase in government spending rather than any sort of tax cut. An arbitrary cash grant does not, moreover, do anything to improve the economy or incentivize productive business. That only comes from cutting tax rates. What Obama is proposing here is really quite similar to George McGovern's 1972 plan to send everyone a $1,000 check, which voters rightly saw as a crass vote-buying scheme rather than serious policy."

Which is pretty much what Bush is doing with his "stimulus" checks.
Somehow I think McCain will be slightly less likely to continue this idiotic trend, but I'm not optimistic.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Palin is the most amazing lightweight I have seen in a while.'

Quick, name any govenor with less educational attainment than Sarah Palin.

I'm still waiting. I guess it is the liberal academe, huh?

[BDB]

MNG, elite schools != being smart.

Bad grades != being dumb.

She comes across as incredibly dense in interviews, though, which is an indicator.

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

The Obama campaign has a long article about Sarah Palin in today's New York Times. Jo Becker, Peter S. Goodman and Michael Powell wrote it for them. The Times reporters evidently scoured Alaska, looking for people who don't like Governor Palin, and pieced together every negative quote they could come up with in the form - more or less - of a newspaper article.

Remarkably enough, the reporters/Obama campaign staff couldn't find room for a single good word about Governor Palin. Thus, while they acknowledge that Palin currently has an approval rating of 80% (86%, actually), making her perhaps the most popular politician in the country, the reader is left to puzzle as to what her constituents could possibly like about her.

Every person who engages in public life has opponents and enemies, and if you talk exclusively to those people, and write an article solely from their perspective, you can easily make the subject look bad. (Imagine, say, an article on Abraham Lincoln that consisted entirely of quotes from Copperhead Democrats.) If the Times wanted to test that proposition, they could send a team of reporters to Chicago to search out and interview people who don't like Barack Obama. Somehow, though, I don't think that's on their agenda.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14palin.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

[Mr. Nice Guy]

One thing: SIV had been pretty scarce around these parts until Palin's nomination (SIV, I hate to tell you this, but that shows what a Gerbil you are). You have to admit, the conservative nutjobs who were absent through much of the campaign were excited by Palin.

Is there any Dem who, after the Biden pick, felt they should suddenly start waving the Dem flag? Biden, the worst VP in forty years. Obama, the worst Prez pick in 40 years. By the way, if the Dem pick were anyone other than Obama the Vp pick would NEVER have been Biden...

[Elemenope]

Except "they" haven't been in charge. Congress is in charge and Democrats have been in control of both the House and the Senate for the past two years. Before they got control they gave Bush everything he asked for, and after they got in control they did more of the same.

[Ahem.] As has been previously and extensively belabored on this site, among others, is the notion of the hyping of the presidency. The president, in the mind of the average American, is by far the most important national official, and the only one (besides their *own* representation in Congress who is never wrong and could walk on water, for all they care, if they even *know their names*) who takes credit or blame for the nation's direction.

I'd hazard that most people hear the "eight years of GOP rule" rhetoric and do not bat an eye, because of the predisposition to think about the government as an emanation from the Presidency. I see no evidence that this is likely to change.

Thus, "Their fault" is likely to work more than you seem to insist.

[Theresa Klein]

"Actually, the Obama personality cult is one thing that made me seriously consider McCain. But since he has one of his own now (read RedState comment threads on Palin, it's a cyber circle jerk), that argument is shot to hell."

I've been considering the possibility that the whole Palin thing was designed to be an elaborate parody of the Barack Obama personality cult.

I can't imagine how any of Obama's fans aren't seeing the similarity and getting a little embarrassed about now.

[BDB]

I see TheMedia has struck again.

TheMedia=Diebold machines of the Right.

[Elemenope]

On the subject of SIV:

Hey, you never answered my question about whether a small-town democrat mayor that tried to round up guns and gun owners (but was unsuccessful) would be a big deal in the context of that person running for higher office.

Come on, take a stab. Tell me that gun ownership is more important somehow than fighting censorship. Please. It'll be fun!

[Mr. Nice Guy]

BDB-I got my doctorate from a 3rd tier university. So I am no elitist. (TAO-keep plugging away!)

But seriously, if anyone has any evidence of ANY state executive having less educational attainment than Palin, please offer it, b/c I have not been able to find anyone lower than that lightweight...

[BDB]

MNG, anyone with a PhD is elite, sorry.

One of our worst Presidents had a PhD though (Wilson). I don't put much stock in where you went to school or what your degree is. More in how intelligent people seem in conversation/job performance. Some people just aren't good at school but are very smart.

[BDB]

Besides, the Governor of a "state" like Alaska is more akin to being the Mayor of a third tier city. And I could name PLENTY of third tier city Mayors that are less educated than Palin. Most of them are "Reverends" though.

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"BDB | September 14, 2008, 10:25pm | #

I see TheMedia has struck again.

The Media=Diebold machines of the Right."

At least Diebold is smart enough to understand that its software needs to at least cast a token vote or two for the Democratic candidate. Get it?

[Mr. Nice Guy]

SIV is incapable of being honest. He is only capable of being a shill. He honestly thinks if he dare offer a bad word about the GOP he undermines them and therefore committs a sin.d

It is great to see SIV support McCain, who is where he is at largely b/c he craps on fellow Republicans. Great b/c the one big problem with SIV is that he is constitutionally incapable of stating the GOP is wrong about anything, and McCain's campaign is that the GOP sucks...Spin, SIV, spin!

[Kolohe]

"Quick, name any govenor[sic - sorry couldn't resist] with less educational attainment than Sarah Palin."

Ok, not quick.

Equal

Current Gov of Alabama:
Riley went on to the University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa where he graduated in 1965 with a degree in Business Administration. He was 20-years-old.

Current Gov of California:
1979: Graduated from University of Wisconsin-Superior with a major in international marketing of fitness and business administration at age 32.

Less
Current gov of CT:

Born Mary Carolyn Reavis[1] in Norfolk, Virginia, Rell attended Old Dominion University, but left in 1967 to marry Lou Rell, a US Navy pilot. She moved to Brookfield, Connecticut in 1969 and later attended, but did not graduate from, Western Connecticut State University. She never graduated from college.[2] She received an honorary law doctorate from the University of Hartford in 2001.

OK football game's back on

[BDB]

Whenever the Democrats lose it's always:

1)Voter fraud!

2)Racism!

3)Americans are Stupid!

When the Republicans lose it's always:

1)TheMedia!

2)S/He Wasn't a True Conservative!

3)Spoilers!

[Mr. Nice Guy]

BDB
A terminal degree is a terminal degree. A Phd is a Jd is a Md.

Sorry, but a B.S. or B.A. is like having a H.S. diploma these days....

I'm not trying to be arrogant... Fitzgerald did not have a terminal degree...

[chris]

So let's see...a right wing newspaper quotes a bunch of Clinton cronies that are on the outside looking in, and we're supposed to credit that article? One of the great things about the Republicans is that once the party settles on their guy, everyone falls into line. Even when people like Peggy Noonan are caught on a hot mic blasting McCain and Palin, she just denies she was ever being critical. Just flat lies if necessary to protect her guy. With the Democrats, every four years there are the same articles about the guys that lost and that are pouting now that they aren't running the campaign. Gee, you'd think that the folks in the Clinton camp don't really even want Obama to win. No, no way, right?

[BDB]

If Obama loses, Joe will pick one of the three. If McCain does, Gus/SIV/James Ard will pick one of the three under Republicans.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Wow, Kolohe, even if I accept your data, you found 2 out of 50 equal and one lower.

Let's face it, Palin is in the bottom five of educational achievement of governors. If you've heard her speak, that is not suprising. "Like, she's like, a dumbass!"

[Gorgeous Gus the Wonder Dog]

"But seriously, if anyone has any evidence of ANY state executive having less educational attainment than Palin, please offer it, b/c I have not been able to find anyone lower than that lightweight..."

We're not here to do your homework.

[Brentwood]

"But seriously, if anyone has any evidence of ANY state executive having less educational attainment than Palin, please offer it, b/c I have not been able to find anyone lower than that lightweight..."

I'd say Barak Obama because as everyone knows, all affirmative action degrees are bogus degrees.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

A terminal degree is a terminal degree. A Phd is a Jd is a Md.

OK this will mark me as an elitist but WRONG!

A Ph.D. in Math or an M.D. is not equivalent to an M.F.A. in sculpture.

[BDB]

"all affirmative action degrees are bogus degrees."

Yup. Bush's degrees are totally bogus.

[Elemenope]

A Ph.D. in Math or an M.D. is not equivalent to an M.F.A. in sculpture.

Tell it to Pollack and Escher.

[Kolohe]

even if I accept your data
sources:

AL - Gov's official website

CA - IMDB

CT - wiki (duh.) btw I like the official website totally elides over the fact she never graduated from college (of course) but does explicitly state her honorary degrees.

I quit at CT because I wanted to see when the luck of the the steelers punt return team will run out (not yet apparently)

Here
is what a was using to ATFQ which was repeatedly:

"But seriously, if anyone has any evidence of ANY state executive having less educational attainment than Palin, please offer it, b/c I have not been able to find anyone lower than that lightweight..."

Which there is.

So you were wrong.

Neener neener 😛

[Brentwood]

"Yup. Bush's degrees are totally bogus."

I'd love to see Jan Crawford (JD University of Chicago) Greenburg debate Obama. She'd kick his sorry ass.

[Kolohe]

If you've heard her speak,

She's talks like most Canadian and US northern tier residents. Although most of the Canadians I know personally are in Atlantic Canada and so talk more like Downeast Mainers (e.g. Murder she wrote vice Fargo)

[BDB]

Like I said, academics don't necessarily make good leaders.

Wilson blew as a President, and Truman never made it past high school.

[Brentwood]

"Tell it to Pollack and Escher."

Agreed.

If you add up the college education of Steinbeck, Hemingway and Faulkner, you get to spring break of freshman year." - Thomas Wolfe, 2008

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

LMNOP: Tell it to Pollack and Escher.

Keep in mind here that I am not saying that educational attainment is the be all and end all of human existence. But within the realm of educational attainment, an M.F.A. and an Ed.D. are not particularly impressive. What Escher did is impressive completely divorced from any educational work he did.

[Kolohe]

Governor of Delaware:
When she was 32, her husband died suddenly of a heart attack, leaving her a single mother with three children. She earned her GED in 1968, and later attended Delaware Technical and Community College, while working two jobs to support the family.

[BDB]

Well, being the Governor of Delware is also like being the Mayor of a third tier city, so...

[Kolohe]

Gov of Hawaii:

She relocated to Hawaii in 1975 after graduating cum laude with a journalism degree from California State University, Northridge. In 1976, she founded and began serving as publisher of the Molokai Free Press.

An interesting tidbit is that it seems most of the governors with similar or less educational attainment than Palin are themselves women

[Brentwood]

""all affirmative action degrees are bogus degrees."

Yup. Bush's degrees are totally bogus."

all affirmative action many legacy degrees are bogus degrees.

[Brentwood]

"Let's face it, Palin is in the bottom five of educational achievement of governors."

And Bill Gates' alma mater is?

[BDB]

Brentwood-

Remember, Obama's father went to Harvard. My money is on legacy admission not affirmative action.

[Kolohe]

. Otter was 20 when he graduated from high school - a childhood accident involving gasoline badly burned his younger brother and forced Otter to take a year off. Throughout high school he worked - janitor, theater ticket taker, lawn boy. He never got good grades, and, even though Otter wanted to be educated, he didn't believe he'd amount to anything beyond blue-collar work. "My dad graduated from high school. My expectations weren't built beyond being a good electrician or carpenter."

He briefly attended St. Martin's Abbey in Lacey, Washington, with aims on becoming a priest. In truth, he attended the abbey only because of his father's opinion that "unless you were going to be a priest, you didn't need to go beyond high school." [1]

Not ready for the rigid lifestyle, Otter returned to Idaho and attended Boise Junior College, then earned his B.A. in political science from the College of Idaho in 1967. He was the only member of his family to graduate from college, and made the dean's list in his last term

Ok I'll stop here. But I do find the non-lawyer Gov bios fascinating. Most of them are self-made stories with a definite non-linear progression to the governorship.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

and whatever arrogance I have comes from getting a Math Ph.D. from a second tier university, so feel free to throw tomatoes at me (or very soft rocks) as warranted.

But really, I think the lesson we all need to learn is that people with more money than you are better than you.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

And Bill Gates' alma mater is?

Harvard.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

Didn't graduate but attended.

[BDB]

Butch Otter is a great Gov. from what I hear.

[Brentwood]

"Remember, Obama's father went to Harvard. My money is on legacy admission not affirmative action.

As I said, all affirmative action degrees are bogus. Legacy or otherwise. I mean really BDB, are you saying Obama was accepted to Harvard on the merits of his father? Did Papa Obama present Harvard with a large endowment? Did he even donate a single dime post-graduation?

Obama was an affirmative action student and he is an affirmative action candidate. Um, have you, um, heard him, ah, speak, um, impromptu?

[Brentwood]

"Didn't graduate but attended."

So why'd he leave (freshman year, I think)?

[Brentwood]

Conclusion: Sarah Palin has more than four times the college education as Bill Gates.

[Kolohe]

I deplore vandalism of any kind, but must admit this is pretty funny

as of now palin wiki page reads:

Palin admits to trying marijuana as a youth, during the time Alaska had decriminalized possession, though she says she did not enjoy it, and that she is a whore.[16][17]

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

He left because:

People who have more money than you are better than you!

(Watch the Mr. Show clip.)

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

Kolohe, did you do that vandalization?

[BDB]

Kennedy used to do the "um, uh" stuff after he spoke. I think Obama is imitating him (he already imitates his speaking style). It's almost funny.

[BDB]

Seriously, go to YouTube and search "John Kennedy Press conference". Same stammers.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

Wow - it's gone already.

[Brentwood]

But here's the executive summary:

Obama will lose because countless blue collar workers have had the displeasure of working for some incompetent black supervisor the company hired in order to meet diversity quotas (gotta get them government contracts) only to see how stupid they actually were.

[Brentwood]

"People who have more money than you are better than you!"

It's not about how much money he has. Just look at what he achieved. He changed the world for goodness sake. Henry Ford wasn't looking for riches, either. What has Obama done?

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

OK, here's a poll for my valued Reason? Hit & Run? blog co-commenters:

How many more beers should I drink tonight? Finally our democratic political process will adress the true issues.

[Brentwood]

"I deplore vandalism of any kind, but must admit this is pretty funny

as of now palin wiki page reads:
Palin admits to trying marijuana as a youth, during the time Alaska had decriminalized possession, though she says she did not enjoy it, and that she is a whore.[16][17]"

Musta been Randi Rhodes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B--bj01CYR8

[BDB]

"How many more beers should I drink tonight? "

Three.

[Brentwood]

"How many more beers should I drink tonight? Finally our democratic political process will adress the true issues."

How many you got? There's your answer.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

Fair enough. Bill Gates has done a good deal, and I'm no Obama or McCain fan either.

I doubt you can say anything that will make me even consider voting. If you held a gun to my head, I guess I'd choke down the vomit and vote Barr.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

OK on reading that last sentence, it was a non-sequitur. I must have already been drinking plenty.

[Barack Obama]

"Let's face it, Palin is in the bottom five of educational achievement of governors."

How true. There's no one less qualified to be Vice President than Sarah Palin, except of course for me, Barack Obama, which is why I'm running for President, and not Vice President.

I know my limits. Can Sarah Palin say the same?

I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.

[idiotface]

I just got done watching football. I said this before, but I'll say it again. Sorry joe, but Retarded Baby wins the election.

[idiotface]

...and by retarded baby, I mean McCain.

[Kolohe]

final tally of post high school education of current governors.

no degree(1)

CT

bachelors only(16)

AL, AK, CA, DE*, HI, ID, ME, MO, NE, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WV

*may be only associates

masters(8)

IA, KS, LA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, SC

law school(23)

AZ, AR, CO, FL, IL, IN, KY, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, NV**, NH, NY, OK, NC, OR, PA, VA, WA, WI, WY

**may not actually have a law degree

other professional degree(2)

GA(veternarian), OH (phd in psych)

[Barack Obama]

they could send a team of reporters to Chicago to search out and interview people who don't like Barack Obama.

That's a ridiculous lie from the Republican Attack Machine. The press has asked me hard-hitting questions like "Aren't you great?" and "How does it feel to be so great?" At a press dinner, I received a nonpartisan standing ovation.

The idea there could be people that don't like is just another example of Karl Rove tactics from the Bush-McCain smear machine. Can we afford four more years of this? We need higher taxes and more government spending to rescue the bitter gun-clingers, so they can stop taking their stupid religion so seriously.

Also, John McCain is old. Really old!

I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.

[Kolohe]

Conclusion: Sarah Palin has more than four times the college education as Bill Gates.

Gates dropped out his senior year something like less than 20 credits from a degree.

"Kolohe, did you do that vandalization?"

Nope, just saw it making the list above. All wikipedia visits by me have always been receive only; I'm not really sure even how to edit.

[idiotface]

Isn't McCain ineligible for POTUS due to his being born in the Panama Canal zone?

Also, does he wear diapers? If so, I'd say he's disqualified.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

It depends. If the diapers are for sexual reasons, he's disqualified.

Am I the only one who saw that "Real Sex"?

*crickets chirping*

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

"I'm not anyone to criticize another person's education, I'm just a humble space chicken, but there are a few things I do know about tort reform..."

[omgdiduseethis]

Official List Of Banned Books

http://www.cityofwasilla.com/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=516

It's like Adolf Hitler is taking over America!

[SIV]

Quick, name any govenor with less educational attainment than Sarah Palin.

Feature not a bug MNG.Doesn't mean she is less smart than anyone ahead of her.Unpretentious education gives her a good BS detector.

[Neu Mejican]

Mr. Nice Guy,

Maybe they'd pick a black guy with an Islamic middle name and a far out childhood whose buds with insane black nationalists and hippie anarchists and has little expereince doing jack in national politics?

I am beginning to think that you are a sock puppet for Orange Line Special.

[Neu Mejican]

SIV,

Unpretentious education gives her a good BS detector.

Unpretentious education?

Really?

Christ...

[P Brooks]

469 comments?

Caramba!

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

471 bitches! I'm drunk!

[SIV]

472 in da house !

[SIV]

Good Night All

hope you have cash assets

[Bingo]

Everyone that posts at this time of night is drunk SIV :p

[Kant feel Pietzsche, my Balzac]

Dear Diary:

Today I bagged a moose

Sarah

Dear Diary:

Last night I dialogued with a Moose, I wasn't the least bit surprised to hear that he was all for "change".

Obama

Dear Diary:

Cindy is typing this for me. Last night I bagged a NVA regular, but it turned out to be a moose.

John

Dear Diary:

Last night I fucked a moose. Whoops, my bad. That was Pelosi.

Joe

[Kant feel Pietzsche, my Balzac]

Bingo | September 15, 2008, 2:21am | #

Everyone that posts at this time of night is drunk SIV

I'll have you know, Sir, that I am NOT drunk. I am high.

[Kant feel Pietzsche, my Balzac]

And I would have posted hours ago, but I stupidly read every one of these interminable posts before putting in my twopence. I feel as if I wasted 1/3 of my life.

[Famous Mortimer]

"Mortimer - way to lord your so-called "intellect" over all and sundry while failing to realize that CONUS (continental United States) is the lower 48 and OCONUS is anywhere outside of that."

Angry Optimist...

No. It's part of the Continental U.S. The use of the "Conus" and "Onus" as qualifiers is primarily a legal creation, not a proper geographical one.

"Conus" does not mean "Continental," and the term "Continental" was originally used in the reply.

It's certainly splitting hairs at this point, but rampant Conservative dick waving really turns my knobs.

[You botched the delivery, Mann]

Barack is his first name, not Obama

[alan]

As someone often accused of being a Libertarian, I an looking for a new description for myself and others who work hard and simply don't want tax dollars spent on insanity most people in this country don't want.

I'm sorry sir, but it is really an all or nothing deal. When you start to accept our loose, swinger ways the sooner you get to enjoy those freedoms that you cherish. Anything that is a compromise only keeps you in bondage that much longer.

[Someone Who Doesn\'t Want to L]

Not that bondage is all bad mind you.

[joe]

How do we know Barack Obama got an "affirmative action degree?"

Oh. Right. He's black. So that must be it.

How do people write this shit in 2008?

Sorry joe, but Retarded Baby wins the election. Damn, betcha wish you had that "Submit Comment" back.

[Tulpa]

Mortimer: here's the first use of "continental US" in this thread, by vanya above.

Never mind if in this case liberals had perfectly good reason to be shocked that McCain would pick a vapid provincial woman with no national political experience whatsoever, hell someone who's spent most of her life outside the continental US. But sure, get outraged conservatives that anyone dare question this patently cynical move.

Doesn't sound like conservative dick-waving, does it? In any case, regardless of your attempted hair-splitting, the term is used to describe the contiguous US far more often than "contiguous US" is. Now go off and tell all the people using the term "power plant" that they're idiots because power plants don't carry out photosynthesis.

[Marshabar]

That's the thing about the traditional American spirit, we are able to adjust to new situations more quickly than most. It is what made the Greatest Generation great.

If liberals still had that spirit they wouldn't be freaking out and having gaffe attacks. Once you get the mind set into the socialist mode everything sloooowwwwwssssss down and it's hard to think clearly. Hard to change direction when you're a great bid ol' monolithic socialist dinosaur.

[Famous Mortimer]

"the term is used to describe the contiguous US far more often than "contiguous US" is."

Alaska is apart of the Continental U.S. It doesn't require any qualifier, just like Idaho doesn't require any qualifier.

"power plant" that they're idiots because power plants don't carry out photosynthesis."

WTF? Can anyone make a proper analogy around here?

[Alvaro]

whatever is neither Hot or Cold will be spit out of God's mouth! Obama is warm and 'warm'