Texas-14 Update: Paul Headed for a Landslide Over Peden

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Until now polls in the Texas-14 congressional race have come from the Ron Paul and Chris Peden campaigns, which Paul claiming he's up big and Peden claiming he's up by low double digits. Today brings the first public poll on the race and it shows Paul cruising to a win. Key findings:

– Overall, Paul leads Peden 63-30 percent. Paul leads by 37 points with women and 29 points with men.

– Paul does best with voters under 30, winning them by 64 points. He does worst with voters between 30 and 45, winning by only 19 points.

– Paul easily wins voters whose top concerns are the economy (70-26 Paul over Peden), taxes (65-24), "moral and family values" (65-28), Iraq (64-27), immigration (59-33), and health care (52-36) The only group Peden wins is voters concerned with education: They go for him by 14 points.

– Newsletters be damned: Paul does best with non-white voters, leading among Hispanics by 45 points and other minorities by 59 points. (The district is 25 percent Hispanic, 10 percent black, and 2 percent Asian, although obviously the GOP primary vote is heavily white.)

The worst news for Paul is probably that a mere 18 percent of TX-14 voters will cast presidential ballots for him. Dean Debman of PPP says that suspending his presidential campaign probably saved his job in the house. "If he had continued to spend most of his time campaigning out of state he might have been in trouble," Debman said in a statement," but it doesn't appear he's facing too much damage on the home front for his national candidacy." Still, it's likely Paul will come out of the Texas primary with no convention delegates.

I've called the Peden campaign to ask about this, since they've been telling national political writers that an upset was brewing. But Peden has suggested he might run in 2010, which hints that 1)he doesn't expect to win at all and 2)he thinks he's getting set up for the eventual battle to replace Paul when he's ready to retire.

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  1. What? Are you suggesting that Pajamas Media got a story wildly wrong?

  2. Looks like Peden got the “Dondero bump” that Rudy and Romney got.

  3. The Dondero bump consists of Dondero voting for you and everyone else turning against you.

  4. …It’s more of a pothole than a bump.

  5. Any bets that Dondero will show up on this thread?

  6. Woah, look at the HUGE “Dondero bump”!

  7. How long has Paul held that seat? Now, the vote isn’t in, and polls are notoriously unreliable, but I was very, very surprised that anyone gave any credence to Paul losing this.

    And what people said about Dondero: unlike a stopped clock, Dondero is never right.

  8. He does worst with voters between 30 and 45, winning by only 19 points.

    I’ll lay odds most Republicans and Democrats would give their left kidney for results that “bad.” Unfortunately I also doubt they’ll learn anything from this.

  9. “I was very, very surprised that anyone gave any credence to Paul losing this.”

    I thought it was sort of credible for three reasons.

    1) The district was redrawn in 2003 to include new areas less familiar with Paul.

    2) A half-assed last minute primary challenge got 22 percent in 2006.

    3) It was hard to gauge the impact of Paul’s run and the negative attention he got for his foreign policy stances.

    I never, ever thought the newsletters would hurt him, though.

  10. If Dondero says its going to happen, it won’t.

    So I’m going to say it now–Wayne Root won’t be the LP nominee for President.

  11. In some ways Dondero is the most reliable weathervane in politics.

  12. Texas-14 Update: Paul Headed for a Landslide Over Peden…

    …thus proving that the Director of Ron Paul’s local office will track down your aunt’s Medicare reimbursement check just as well as any other Congressman’s.

  13. Cesar — too bad; he’s the only one I like. I met Imperato. He’s crazier than a pet raccoon.

  14. quick guys can’t we come up with some more racists smears on ron paul? I know those hispanics in dist 14 can’t read very well, but maybe we could write some good articles using pictures that will let them know how racist Paul really is. then peden can lead texas back to the 21st century and we can finalyl get the support we need to drop some nukes on all the camel jockeys.

  15. that is the real libertarian position right Poole and Micahel Young?…defend freedom by killing all of thsoe who are not free!

  16. I met Imperato. He’s crazier than a pet raccoon.

    Crazier than Badnarik was?

  17. Cosmotarian Overlord is apparently still butthurt over the newsletter thing.

  18. Maybe, maybe not. The fact is, so many of us in the 14th are just sick of Paul’s little games. He has failed to represent us and instead, spends his time bashing our country.

    Worse, while he claims to support us and oppose the TTC, in reality he has been funneling backdoor earmarks for it, upwards of tens of millions of dollars.

    http://images.chron.com/content/news/photos/07/07/01/paul_earmarks/Transportation3.pdf

    All of this, for his own personal narcissistic need for attention and of course, the money.

    I suggest you research the 1988 Libertarian Embezzlement scandal that Paul was wrapped up in. Hundreds of thousands of dollars was embezzled from the campaign into various pockets and personal PACs. Paul’s own campaign director went down for this. Look at his expense reports, he has paid himself millions out of his own PAC funds over the past decades. It is all a money making scheme for him, he just hit the jackpot this year. Imagine what is happening now that he has tricked people into donating tens of millions of dollars.

    This whole campaign is a scam. From Paul’s so called observance of constitutional principles to most of the grassroots effors (ie, Ron Paul Racing scam, etc.)

    A reporter could have a field day with this if they were so inclined. Too bad they are all just sick of hearing constant threats from the Paultards.

  19. In some ways Dondero is the most reliable weathervane in politics.

    Eric Dondero: the George Costanza of American politics.*

    A reporter could have a field day with this if they were so inclined. Too bad they are all just sick of hearing constant threats from the Paultards.

    Yeah, Paul’s supporters really have the media cowed alright. That’s why news reporters have been treating him like a serious contender from day one.

    *If every instinct you have is wrong, the exact opposite must be right!

  20. New online identity?
    Is MNTX really Dondero incognito?

  21. “spends his time bashing our country.”

    He doesn’t bash our country, he bashes our statist government which infringes on our rights and meddles in countries which we have no business in, thus endangering us from terrorism.

  22. Nah MNTX seems like a Wonkette vagrant. Most right wing sites use “Paulites”, “Ronulans”, “Birchers”, but “Paultard” not so much.

  23. The best names I’ve heard are stormfronters. I take that name with pride.

  24. “The best names I’ve heard are stormfronters. I take that name with pride.”

    Apparently, MNTX isn’t able to refute my arguments, so he resorts to namecalling under my tag.

  25. reason sucks… wait, wrong thread…

  26. Cesar — I never met Badnarik; while I have complete contempt for the man and his “campaign” skills, I haven’t actually seen him interact with humans.

  27. So anyway, what does Reason think about the situation with the dollar? What should the Fed do? Let me some sunshine, libertarians 🙂

  28. Let me see, rather. I hate when you can’t edit posts.

  29. If Ron Paul was so far ahead to start with, why did he send out a panicked email begging for money?

    Does anyone actually know where all his money is getting spent on?

  30. I believe so strongly in Ron Paul that I donated to his Congressional campaign…and I live in Ohio!!!!

    Ron Paul for President 2008
    Long live the R3volution.

  31. It’s dumb, ignorant, and rude comments like yours Shane Brady that make my skin crawl. Go back to your Peden-McInsane sites and give them all your 3OVL.

    Dr. Paul and his supporters will run the r3VOLution, thank you!

    I’m from PA and donated also and could care less how he spent my donation. That’s why they call it a DONATION! Uh, no strings!

  32. Shane, the request for money came weeks ago. This poll is very recent. The request was in response to Peden’s poll, before Paul’s campaign had conducted any polls.

  33. …thus proving that the Director of Ron Paul’s local office will track down your aunt’s Medicare reimbursement check just as well as any other Congressman’s.

    Actually, he does it better. Thats how Paul is able to return some of his office money every year.

  34. Guys, I’m as pro-Ron Paul as they come. But can we please refrain from the negative personal attacks? It certainly doesn’t advance our cause.

  35. Paige,

    That’s been pretty much par for the course for a lot of Ron Paul supporters.

    And for the record, my comments echoed a lot of comments from ronpaul2008.com where some people are frustrated at the consistently poor finishes in primaries and nothing to show for their money.

  36. >> That’s been pretty much par for the course for a lot of Ron Paul supporters.

    Of course all Ron Paul supporters are exactly alike. We’re all bad, immature, rude, etc. etc. etc. And no one else is rude, no one else is immature, no matter how many names they call us “paultard”, “conspiracy theorist”, etc. etc. etc. You, and everyone else who belittles people because of their political beliefs, are the good guys, we are the bad guys because we support the man who we think is best for america and for the world.

  37. Shane Brady…Dr. Paul has run one of the most transparent races, both Congressional and Presidential, especially in terms of finance. I mean when you consider Dr. Paul has returned nearly a Million Dollars to the Treasury since 1995 from his Congressional Office Budget; it is hard to understand how anyone could question his use of funds. Obviously, the man knows how to budget and use our funds wisely on every level. Afterall, considering that he has run this campaign, both campaigns, without doing into debt speaks volumes and is far more than any other candidate has done thus far.
    Also, if you question where the money has been spent it is easy enough to go to the Federal Election Commission website instead of seeking to raise such questions in an effort to cast doubt on Dr. Paul.

  38. Ron Paul doesn’t steal money or anything, but his campaign certainly mismanages ( as in spends it on stuff that is ineffective)it. I think his spending in office is a lot more frugal. He doesn’t like spending tax dollars, but contributions are another thing. And hey I’m alright with that. People choose to donate money in those cases. They dont mind he has no chance or spends it on Tancredo tactics.

  39. I’ll take that bet. $20 bucks says Dondero does not show up on this thread.

  40. Yeah, I guess I’m a good weathervane for losing campaigns.

    That’s why on Nov. 6, 2006 when Republicans were getting hammered all over the United States I was up in Anchorage at the victory party for the women I had been campaigning for the few days prior to the election.

    You might have heard of her. She’s a Republican. And now being talked about as a possible Vice-Presidential pick for John McCain.

    Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

    Oh, and btw, polls just before the election had Palin running slightly behind or tied with Tony Knowles. She ended up winning with 60%.

    So much for that weathervane theory ‘eh?

  41. Great News to hear Paul is winning.

  42. Dondero, quit trying to make yourself seem more important than you really are. Just cause you flew out to Alaska to kiss some ass and bring coffee and doughnuts, and were in the back of the room when Sarah Palin came through, doesn’t make you some political insider.

  43. in the late 1990s, message boards were a way for individual stock traders to exchange information.

    Then, the scumbag bottom-feeder hedge funds figured out that they could create several dozen different identities, spread disinformation, and influence the prices of small-cap stocks to their benefit. Today, the stock message boards are a worthless, useless joke.

    Folks need to keep in mind, as they read these political blog threads, that the various political operatives are just as capable of figuring out this trick and using it.

    Folks also need to keep in mind the history of mankind. This history repeats itself in an endless cycle, primarily because the average person goes to great lengths to avoid thinking. Right now, we are watching the global monitary elite pull out all the stops to keep their stranglehold on the world. This will fail, as it always does; the American Empire will collapse and the result will be a global depression lasting for decades if not centuries; it will most likely end with the rise of the Asian Empire, led by China. The last such occurance was brought about by the fall of the Roman Empire, and is glossed over in our history books as “The Dark Ages.”

  44. Graham, what makes you think I was “in the backroom” eating donuts in Anchorage? Do you have some sort of evidence of that?

    I suggest you contact Libertarian Party State Chairman Jason Dowell for the inside story of what exactly went on those last three days in Anchorage prior to the election, regarding the LP and Sarah Palin.

    It’s actually quite a story.

  45. BTW, you all need to see this.

    Steve Kubby just attacked his own Campaign Coordinator Tom Knapp for his attack piece on Wayne Root.

    Kubby said he completely distances himself from Knapp’s remarks.

    The LP race has taken a nasty turn indeed.

  46. Hey Graham, was I “in the back room eating donuts” when Ron Paul first won his Congressional race in 1996?

    Tell us please, wanna hear it out of your mouth, that I was a “back-roomer donut eater” in Ron Paul’s ’96 campaign.

  47. Sure, Dondero, but what we all want to know is how cold was it when you were campaigning? That winter was pretty warm IIRC.

  48. Is “back-roomer donut eater” some sort of gay code phrase? If not, it should be.

  49. OK if Dondero got in up here we need to build a wall at the border. Imigration is a larger problem than I thought. Palin was never behind Knowles and besides she is sharp, not that you would need to be to detect a hanger on like Dondero. There are other places he could visit up here like the Rat Islands out in the Aleutians but that would be a mean thing to do to a bunch of rats.

  50. Dave Weigel: “1) The district was redrawn in 2003 to include new areas less familiar with Paul.”

    I think you’re making an assumption regarding how well known and respected Ron Paul is outside his district. I personally know one guy from the Houston area (but not TX-14) who has previously donated to Dr. Paul’s campaigns and had this to say:

    “He’s kind of a big deal in the Houston-area. A lot of people respect him.”

    Of course, that’s paraphrased, but Ron Paul is not an unknown down in those parts by any measure.

  51. Jack, LOL. That was hilarious!

    “Back room donut eater is code for Gay guy.”

    Only, how does the donut hole fit into all of it?

  52. Joe Prax, I bet to differ.

    I was glued to Anchorage radio the days before the election. That afternoon show, comes on at 3:00 pm. What is it? And even the leftist PBS station, and that other leftist indie station.

    All the liberal media in Anchorage were trying to downplay Palin those last few days, raising the mantra that she could lose to the “powerful” Tony Knowles.

    Those of us supporting here were scared shitless that she’d go down to defeat. Thusly, the victory on election night was ever more sweeter.

    That day we’d been in the dumps. And by 8:00 pm it was heaven on earth, with the Princess herself sashaying into the crowd at the Egan Center to thousands of adoring fans.

    Knowles stood on a platform at one side of the enormous room, and conceded defeat.

    Palin stood on the other side, thanked all her supporters, thanked Knowles, and even thanked the Libertarian Party of Alaska.

  53. “2) A half-assed last minute primary challenge got 22 percent in 2006.”

    Well, yeah. But she (Cynthia Sinatra) did spend 150,000 dollars of her own money on her campaign. That’s pretty significant.

  54. You might have heard of her. She’s a Republican. And now being talked about as a possible Vice-Presidential pick for John McCain. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

    Now that is interesting. I’d vote for her in a heartbeat, despite McCain sitting in first chair.

  55. She’s a Republican. And now being talked about as a possible Vice-Presidential pick for John McCain. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

    Let me go out on a limb here for a moment…

    … no way in HELL.

  56. Rush Limbaugh has her up on his website today as the Top VP pick for McCain.

    Story at http://www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com

  57. McCain’s top three choices for VP currently are:

    Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota

    Matt Blunt, Governor of Missouri

    Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida

  58. “Steve Kubby just attacked his own Campaign Coordinator Tom Knapp for his attack piece on Wayne Root.”

    I’ll take “Who Cares?” for $200, Alex.

  59. Should really state: Dave Weigel’s yellow journalism regarding the Ron Paul newsletters be damned. Which is exactly what it was. Thanks Dave, for being a good cosmotarian. When’s your McCain endorsement coming out? Reason itself could then change it’s tagline to “Mangy Minds and Managed Markets.”

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