Election Night Thread: Wisconsin Tundra, Hawaiian Sand and… Washington

|

The weather in the Cheesehead state is in single digits today as Democrats and Republicans go to the polls for the final primary of the month. Polls close at 8pm local time, 9pm ET. The stakes: Pretty damn high.

The Democrats have just finished a week of the most brutal campaigning since South Carolina. Hillary Clinton has tested a series of negative attacks on Obama, from the piecemeal—Social Security, health care, his Illinois Senate record—to a dark, larger narrative. That narrative could be summed up as "Obama is a lightweight speech-maker for hire who won't debate the issues and doesn't even write his own stuff." The Deval Patrick scandal might be one of those cluster bombs that screws up everything we know about a presidential race; it might backfire on Clinton, since Obama's trading lines with a political ally is far, far different than Joe Biden stealing lines from a British Labour leader.

Those aren't the only factors that could screw up Obama's chances. Cold weather had an early impact on turnout in Madison, the liberal enclave where he needs to win big. Some talk radio jocks suggested that Republicans (it's an open primary, and they can vote in either race) vote for Hillary, since polls show her losing the state to McCain in November. But it would take one hell of a mind-meld to reverse the trend we saw in Virginia's open primary: Republicans and independents voting for Obama because they, uh, like him. In 2004 (when there was no GOP race), 38 percent of Democratic primary voters were non-Democrats. It'll be lower this time, but those voters will give Obama a cushion.

Here are the exits from 2004: Here's a map of how the state voted. If Dade Dane (I had a map in front of me and still mistyped this) County (Madison) turnout is light (125,363 voted in 2004), it's bad for Obama. If Brown County (Green Bay) turnout is high (26,542 voted in 2004), it's good for Clinton.

The Republican race is harder to handicap simply because so many Republicans will pass on the race to stay home or to mess with the Democrats. But early exit polls suggest Huckabee is doing worse among groups he overperformed in back in Virginia, like talk radio voters.

We've got a Democratic caucus in Hawaii and a Republican primary in Washington (supplementing the Feb. 9 caucus), and results won't come in until 1 a.m. and 11 p.m. respectively, so thread away.

Wisconsin

The Democrats (74 delegates)—I'm expecting Obama to win by 7 or 8 points.
The Republicans (40 delegates)—McCain should win by about 15 points.

Hawaii (20 delegates)
Obama's a native and the state's as wired for him as the rest of the caucus states. It's also one of the wealthiest (median income $49,820) and most liberal (Kucinich got 31 percent in 2004 and carried Maui) states that's voted so far. The only things that could put Hillary over the top would be an Asian anti-Obama vote (as occured in California) or the old Daniel Inouye machine turning out thousands of votes for her. I'd be surprised if they could stop Obama. He wins by 15 points or more.

Washington (19 delegates)
McCain will win.

UPDATE 6:45: Early Wisconsin exits (with more than two hours til polls close) look good for Obama. Twenty-seven percent of voters are independents, and Obama is winning them about 2-1. Clinton would need to win Democrats by about 10 points to overcome that advantage. One sort of promising result: 70 percent say free trade costs Americans jobs. Down from 74 percent last time!

UPDATE 6:53: Clinton will take the stage for her last speech of the day at… 8:30 p.m. ET. If she thought she could win Wisconsin, she'd wait. (Neither candidate is spending election night in Wisconsin.)

UPDATE 7:04: Nine percent of Democratic voters were Republicans, pushing the non-Democrat turnout in the Obama-Clinton race to 38 percent: Exactly what it was when a coalition of working class whites and blacks edged Kerry past Edwards in 2004. In the GOP race 20 percent of voters were independent and 9 percent were Democrats, which must be good for McCain.

UPDATE 8:13: CBS releases most of the early exits in a shameless bid for traffic. OK, I'll play. Obama is winning every region of the state except the conservative northwest, and carrying white voters by 7 points (losing white Democrats by 4).

UPDATE 8:58: Mickey Kaus is wrong. It was a backlash to overt sexism, a great ground operation (including the legendary Michael Whouley, who won Iowa for Kerry in 2004), Edwards spoiling the anti-Hillary vote, and a year of organization that won New Hampshire for Hillary. If she loses tonight, she… loses tonight.

UPDATE 9:00: The networks call for McCain. Final exit polls have Obama winning men by 26 points and women by 2 points. He wins going away tonight.

UPDATE 9:10: So, how did Plagiarismgate play? Obama… won voters who decided in the last week by 12 points. He lost voters who decided today by 2 points.

UPDATE 9:18: Exits have McCain winning by barely 15 points and Ron Paul dragging at around 4 percent.

UPDATE 10:02: In Obama's victory speech: "If you work in America, you should not be poor."

UPDATE 10:37: The exit polls are looking final, and the late-deciding vote broke this way: Voters who moved in the last week went for Obama by 34 points, voters who moved in the last three days went by 8 for Obama, and voters who decided today went for Clinton by 2. So, does that indicate a swing from the plagiarism scandal? Maybe not. In this last round of primaries election-day deciders have always broken for Clinton compared to last-week deciders. In Maryland Obama won last week voters by 34, last three days voters by 24… and Clinton won election day voters by 7 points. In other words they broke even more strongly in a state where the last day of news was good for Obama than they broke in Wisconsin, where Obama decisively lost the last news cycle. All three network broadcasts led with the plagiarism story last night.

UPDATE 11:06: As usual, Ron Paul is getting his best results in small, rural counties. Seven percent in Adams, Burnett, Calumet. Eight percent in Iron. Nine percent in Richland and Vernon. Twelve percent in Crawford. But in the exits he only breaks into double digits among voters dissatisfied with a McCain or Huck nomination.

UPDATE 11:33: The talking heads keep talking about Obama's "15 point" victory. It's going to be closer to 18 points. The outstanding counties are basically all Obama counties. More than 20 percent needs to be counted in both Dane and Milwaukee, both going huge for him. What makes this impressive? The single best pre-election poll for Obama showed him winning by 13.

UPDATE 12:16: In 2004, when there was no Republican race in Wisconsin, 828,364 people voted in the Democratic primary. Tonight more than a million people will have voted in the Democratic primary and less than 400,000 will have voted in the GOP primary. I'm increasingly thinking that Republicans handed McCain the nomination knowing that a Republican won't win this year. It's like a gold watch, except that it will explode after everyone else leaves the room.

Advertisement

NEXT: Censorship in the Land of Cloudberries

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. Some talk radio jocks suggested that Republicans (it’s an open primary, and they can vote in either race) vote for Hillary, since polls show her losing the state to McCain in November.

    WTF?!?!

    Weigel where the hell were you when talk radio jocks were saying this about Democrats voting in McCain v Romney?

  2. Correct me if I am wrong, but if Obama gets the Democratic nod he will be the first person to get the nomination of a major political party who was born outside of the contiguous United States. I am right am I not?

  3. Correct me if I am wrong, but if Obama gets the Democratic nod he will be the first person to get the nomination of a major political party who was born outside of the contiguous United States. I am right am I not?

    I guess that depends if the Republican Convention this year is before or after the Democratic one.

  4. Well, McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone. So hes the first.

  5. 2008: an election where two socialists oppose each other (McCain and either Clinton or Obama). This kind of reminds me of the novel Harangue by Garrett.
    http://www.mises.org/store/Harangue-The-Trees-Said-to-the-Bramble-Come-Reign-Over-Us-P451C0.aspx

  6. I forgot McCain was born in Panama! If Obama gets the nod (and assuming McCain gets his) we will have BOTH major contenders born outside the contiguous United States!

  7. “One sort of promising result: 70 percent say free trade costs Americans jobs. Down from 74 percent last time!”

    We still havn’t learned from Smoot-Hawley
    http://www.mises.org/story/1008

  8. Who is surprised by recent revelations that Hillary plans to steal Obama’s pledged delegates?! Come on, People!

    By now we know the Clintons are capable of ANYTHING, whether legal or ethical or not, to get power. There is NOTHING NEW here, is there!?!

    Enough of Washington politics as usual. The politics of personal destruction, as perfected by the Clinton Dynasty over the years, has gone far enough!
    So, turn the focus where it should be: have Bill and Hill immediately release their incriminating tax returns and have them immediately release their secret White House papers (which they are pretending they can’t release now!) so that we all can judge for ourselves whether Hillary really had any experience in the White House besides parties with dignitaries and her miserably failed Hillary-Care-Gate.

  9. Some interesting analysis — thanks. I’m about to post a link to you, just FYI.

    Thanks–
    T.D. Scott
    VichyDems

  10. Madison is in Dane County, not Dade County.

  11. “Who is surprised by recent revelations that Hillary plans to steal Obama’s pledged delegates?! Come on, People!”

    If she did that it would be the Republicans dream. A lot of Democrats, especially [insert prefered term for Americans of Sub-Saharan African descent] ones. McCain would win and they might even recapture at least one of the houses of congress.

  12. Madison is in Dane County; Miami is in (Miami-)Dade County.

    As a native cheesehead, I implore you to not confuse Wisconsin with Florida.

  13. Keith beat me to it.

    BTW, I have always found it ironic that Green Bay is located in Brown County.

  14. OK, that post’s up now. Sorry for the delay.
    Cheers–

  15. Prediction =

    Obama takes WI tonight handily (20+pts).

    He also wins Ohio in 2 weeks, but loses texas fairly closely to Hilary (by 10pts or so) and goes on to win the nom.

    Clintons will not be particularly graceful about getting pwned, and wont bow out until it becomes painfully clear she isnt getting saved by dirty pool like reallocating FL or MI votes, or pulling strings with the superdelegates.

    Also, having mccain and obama as the candidates will be the most engaged election in the last 50+ years. Highest turnout, most fluid voters in play. I’ve heard from a number of republicans who want to vote for Obama in the general, even. Many I know voted for ‘bama in the primaries in VA. It will actually be mostly a positive campaign from both sides, although mccain will go after Obama’s war-leader cred mainly. Obama will poke at his age and his temper and his ‘insider’ thing, but overall be generous and respectful of his credentials.

    Obama will win in the end.

    Then, we figure out what the fuck that really means.

  16. Al Gore was born in the District of Columbia. Barry Goldwater was born in Arizona Territory three years before it became a state.

  17. You mean the “plot to steal Obama’s delegates” that doesn’t actually exist?

    The only reason this Obama voter has even a shred of sympathy left for that woman is the silly-ass conspiracy theories that the wingers are always indulging in about her.

  18. GILMORE,

    MSNBC reported that 8% of Republicans in your fair commonwealth say they would vote for Obama over McCain.

    That is stunning. This is still the polarized nation of 2000 and 2004, and he has that kind of cross-party appeal?

  19. The word on the street is that Ron Paul was lifting whole lines from Mein Kampf, but only for fund raising letters.

  20. Joe, other than thier respective views on the war, what is the difference betwen McCain and Obama? Both are statists through and through. Notice McCain also has that “cross-party appeal” what neither has is apeal for people who support free-market economics.

  21. PIRS,

    You don’t even know what the word “statist” means.

    Hint: it does not mean “not a libertarian.”

    I might as well declare that Josef Stalin and Ronald Reagan are both “a-liberals.” So what’s the difference, really?

    The world is not defined in one-dimensional comparison to your fringe politics.

  22. “I might as well declare that Josef Stalin and Ronald Reagan are both “a-liberals.” ”

    They were both aliberal. There were at least a few minor differences. For example, Reagan supported free market economics at least some of the time. Stalin supported it none of the time. Also, Reagan, unlike either McCain or Stalin supported free speech.

  23. ONe major difference was that Stalin was unconstrained.

  24. When the Constitution is not ignored it is a major inconvienience to would-be-tyrants.

  25. other than thier respective views on the war, what is the difference betwen McCain and Obama?

    As the #1 issue, that’s enough for me to make a decision.

  26. To answer the question, the biggest difference is that John McCain believes we would be a better, stronger, safer country if we embarked on a Kipling-esque mission to bring the world under our sway, and Barack Obama does not.

    John McCain was trying to start up an Iraq War/Occupation/Incorporation into our Sphere as far back as the 1990s. He believes our country is better off with a Great National Project (see the Weekly Standard, 1998, “Towards a National Greatness Conservatism”), and he believes the way to secure our interests and values is to hold other countries down by force until they concede to remake themselves in our image.

    Barack Obama thinks we should fight terrorism by fighting terrorists and winning the battle for public opinion across the world. John McCain thinks we should fight terrorism by taking over countries.

    Barack Obama is a liberal internationalist. He might send a battalion to some dusty hole to save half a million lives threatened by drought or ethnic cleansing or some such horror, with our allies at our side, but he would do everything he could NOT to get our country into a large, serious war unless we were directly threatened. He looks at war as something that is bad for our country, while McCain and his neoconservative followers have an almost pre-WW1 view of it as the natural course a state should pursue, and one that improves the quality of the public by instilling military virtues in them.

    This has tremendous importance not just for our foreign policy, but for our domestic policy. While Bush is way, way off the scale, all presidents expand their power and the power of their office beyond the checks and balances system during wartime.

    It’s really quite simple. Barack Obama will be more like a Belgian Prime Minister, and John McCain will be more like a French Emperor. Choose wisely.

  27. Oops, you asked “other than the war.”

    I don’t think that’s a useful way to look at it. For one thing, their positions on “the war” are the consequence of their positions on war in general. Second, think of FDR during WW2. Think of Wilson during WW1. Think of Nixon during Vietnam. Think of Truman trying to nationalize the mines.

    Now imagine if those wars were considered by the president and his party to be the permanent state of our nation.

  28. other than thier respective views on the war, what is the difference betwen McCain and Obama?

    Generational? Maybe it’s because i’m 23, but i get so sick of hearing about ‘nam and woodstock and reagan and hanoi jane and blah blah blah..

  29. There’s that, too, shane.

    How about if there was a chance – just a chance – of having a debate over drug policy that didn’t degenerate into a grudge match over who hated what kind of people when they went to college in the 60s.

  30. joe | February 19, 2008, 7:43pm | #

    GILMORE,

    MSNBC reported that 8% of Republicans in your fair commonwealth say they would vote for Obama over McCain.

    That is stunning. This is still the polarized nation of 2000 and 2004, and he has that kind of cross-party appeal?

    FWIW I live in NYC. My extended family and a number of ex-and -current military people i know live in VA

    I’m not particularly surprised. I WAS surprised my crazy super conservative dad was more for Obama than mccain, but the way he put it, neither of them fit traditional party lines, so they’re both just ‘moderates’ of different stripes to many people, which is why i think the cross party appeal is a very real thing. For my pop, the reason for Obama was that he was young and not yet a cynical player. He felt the guy would grow to the responsibility, whereas McCain is stuck with his history of positions which he couldnt move from without alienating his support. To the same point, i think a large number of ‘Lieberman’ style democrats will vote McCain (although they wont make much of a difference – there arent enough of them)

    I think the ‘polarization’ thing has always been overblown. More people want to bury the MoveOn.orgs AND Focus on the Family-types than adhere to the rhetoric of either.

    Maybe nows our chance 🙂

  31. I said:

    “Joe, other than thier respective views on the war, . . .”

    It is true that foreign policy can impact domestic policy but this was not my point. Obama would be like a Belgian Prime Minister and McCain would be like a modern French president whose last name rymes with Sarkozy.

  32. Jean-Pierre Larkozy?

  33. I just saw your correctional post.

  34. joe- yeah that about completely turned me off during the ’04 race, the tossing of the medals, the swift boat stuff it’s like these people(the boomers) just can’t let go, between the aged hippies and the born-agains there is no room for anything other than the culture war crap.

    god i hate boomers, wish they’d just die already. unfortunatley they are planning on sticking it out for a while and demanding the cushy tax payer supported “aged” friendly benefits they didn’t bother to extend to their own parents(sort of like how they protested and dodged their war yet when i question this war…)

  35. joe | February 19, 2008, 7:41pm | #

    You mean the “plot to steal Obama’s delegates” that doesn’t actually exist?

    http://www.observer.com/2008/clinton-wants-florida-and-michigan-delegates-seated-convention

    Not stealing his, but this was the dirty pool i mentioned.

    it’s not a ‘plot’, but it exists, and it’s pretty desperate bullshit

  36. GILMORE,

    The Florida/Michigan thing is real.

    The latest flap is about some comment some Clinton flack made saying, “If no one has a majority at the convention, everyone is going to be trying to poach everyone’s delegates.”

    Which, with a little spin through the MIghty Wurlitzer, turned into ZOMG!!1!! Teh Hildebeast is trying to steal the election!!!11!!1eleven!!

  37. “I don’t think that’s a useful way to look at it. For one thing, their positions on “the war” are the consequence of their positions on war in general. Second, think of FDR during WW2. Think of Wilson during WW1. Think of Nixon during Vietnam. Think of Truman trying to nationalize the mines.

    Now imagine if those wars were considered by the president and his party to be the permanent state of our nation.”

    Interestingly enough, in the 20th Century Democrats were more likely to start wars than Republicans. Our current POTUS’s father was an exception to the rule. Now we have the W. This may be a realignment of the parties.

  38. Which, with a little spin through the MIghty Wurlitzer, turned into ZOMG!!1!! Teh Hildebeast is trying to steal the election!!!11!!1eleven!!

    I havent paid much attention to the day to day dialogue on the intertubes really. My bets have netted me about $500 bucks so far amongst my professional “forecasting” friends. Im looking longer term at this point. I think most of what will clinch the deal will happen in 2 weeks, while the conventional wisdom still thinks somehow it’s coming down to the wire. I dont think thats the case.

  39. This promises to be one of the most interesting votes in recent years in the Aloha State. I just can’t bring myself to register as a democrat to take part in it. Don’t underestimate the power of the democrat machine here.

  40. p.s.

    Wulitzer?

    Thats an awesome electric piano, which a guy I play with uses, but I wouldnt think of it as working for a “munging/food processor” type of analogy

  41. PIRS,

    The realignment you mention happened between 1968 and 1980. Republicans have been the War Party and Democrats the Peace Party for at least 20 years. But you are right, in between TR and FDR, the Republicans were isolationists and the Democrats were more activist with the military. From Truman through Johnson (the early Cold War), they were equally likely.

  42. GILMORE:

    MSNBC reported that 8% of Republicans in your fair commonwealth say they would vote for Obama over McCain.

    joe:

    That is stunning. This is still the polarized nation of 2000 and 2004, and he has that kind of cross-party appeal?

    It is impressive, joe, but maybe not that much. Virginia is going Democratic anyway. Obama is maybe only getting it there a few elections early. It’s actually kind of interesting to live here and watch it slowly happen.

    (Though if a significant part of the MSNBC crossover figures are due to the kind of military people for Obama of GILMORE’s separate anecdotal evidence, rather than just shifting populations, that actually would be a much bigger deal. It would be an impressive statement about Obama as a candidate. Of course, there’s plenty of those kind of statements around anyway.)

  43. GILMORE,

    The Mighty Wurlitzer is a slang term the kids are using for the Republican Noise Machine. You know, like “tea shades” and “can I rap witcha?”

    It’s big and expensive and makes a lot of noise. Get it?

  44. Oh, Rodney, you play the piano divinely!

    You ought to see my play my upright organ.

  45. Ahh.

    I hate the kids. They never know shit.

    Wurly’s are cheap, funky, and subtle. No one who doesnt play music should be allowed to talk about them without kneeling and preying for mercy.

    (cue: BOM-BOM, BOM Bom BAM-BAM! “hey momma dont you treat me wrong… come and love your daddy all night long, all right…. heyy heyyy,”)

  46. Joe, Reagan did not start a major war. OK, yea, he liberated Grenada but he also withdrew troops from Lebonon rather than go to war there. Reagan was also a peacenick in his own way, he signed a lot of treaties to reduce nuclear arms with the USSR. Many people forget that.

  47. NRO is reporting that exit polls have Obama ahead 60-40.

  48. Republicans worldwide are praying that Obama win most popular vote delagates and that Hillary successfully steal the nomination.

  49. oh. AND they’re compact and portable.

    The analogy would work if the example were “The Mellotron”, but thats pretty gay to actually say as well

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mellotron

  50. GILMORE,

    Was that a Wurlitzer in “Green Onions?”

    Anyhoo, I think you got the big states backwards. Hillary wins comfortably in Ohio, but it’s close in Texas.

  51. Does Weigel have a tipjar? Because, the coverage he offers is so exciting! It’s almost like watching CNN, but without the BillSchneider closeups and the guy who was the reporter for that paper off in the background just sitting around waiting for something. Go Weigel! Go CNN!

  52. For my pop, the reason for Obama was that he was young and not yet a cynical player. He felt the guy would grow to the responsibility, whereas McCain is stuck with his history of positions which he couldn’t move from without alienating his support.

    That’s one of the more interesting points I’ve read in a while, particularly the part in bold.

    I guess I’m with Shane, too, being 27, that me and a whole bunch of people my age are really sick and tired of baby boomer crap…it’s as if all the mistakes that could possibly be made in the last thirty years they have gone out of their way to make, while what they actually *did* in their youth disappeared down some gaping memory hole.

  53. PIRS,

    Hey, I’m the last person in the world you need to tell about Reagan’s foresight in signing treaties with Gorbachev. The fact that he reversed himself about the central defining plank of his political philosophy for 30 years, embracing a charm offensive because he saw that the Containment strategy he’d disdained had worked, was one of the most extraordinary actions any American president has ever taken. I think it gets far too little press, because it doesn’t fit into either party’s preferred narrative. That dipshit George Will wrote, the day after Rekyavik, “Today will be remember as the day American lost the Cold War.” Insane supervillain Richard Perle had a few choice words for him too.

    I remember watching that signing ceremony – “Trust, but verify” – live on CNN as a lad. Wow.

    But nonetheless, Reagan was an absolutely ferocious saber-rattler, and the fact that we didn’t become involved in any big wars under him was more a consequence of circumstance than his own predilections.

    BTW, FDR, Truman, and Wilson didn’t “start” any major wars, either. They reacted when other people started them.

  54. Lonewacko, an honest question: Which magazines or blogs do you like?

  55. joe | February 19, 2008, 9:01pm | #

    GILMORE,

    Was that a Wurlitzer in “Green Onions?”

    No, thats a Hammond Organ

    A huge, heavy, and expensive piece of kit that requires a powered rotating speaker cabinet as well. See “whipping post” or anything by Jimmy Smith or Jimmy McGriff or Lonny Smith, etc.

    The main competitor/comparison to a wurly is a Rhodes keyboard. The Wurly is the cheapest and smallest electric piano made, basically. See the movie “Ray” for a co-starring role 🙂

  56. Except George Will’s spelling was correct.

    joez Law of Teh Intertubez strikes again!

  57. I call Wisconsin for Hillary!

    Kidding. I call it for Obama.

  58. LoneWacko = please forward your home address. I have a number of used diapers that you can eat from to your heart’s content

  59. Hi, Cesar.

    Good call.

    I call Hawaii for Obama. First!

  60. joe | February 19, 2008, 9:01pm | #

    Anyhoo, I think you got the big states backwards. Hillary wins comfortably in Ohio, but it’s close in Texas.

    $50?

    I’ll do $25 each if you’re hedging.

  61. I call Hawaii for Obama. First!

    Ha, Obama wins Hawaii too but it will be closer than expected.

  62. McCain’s giving his speech. If you ever wanted to see what Teddy Roosevelt would have been like with nukes, precision munitions, and PTSD, by all means vote for McCain.

    He sure ain’t shy, he just said that we need to extend the “reach and scope of our democracy”. He could have explained it in six letters.

  63. For all I know, GILMORE, you’re the anthrax guy.

    Gentleman’s wager, ok?

    BTW, since you’re an organ guy, check out a song called “Weirdo” by the Charlatans UK. They’re a Manchester Scene band from the 1990s, but they worked in an ubercool organ riff into that song. It’s a neat sound, and totally unexpected, given the genre.

  64. Looks like McCain took Chris Matthews’ advice: give your speech BEFORE Barack Obama. Not after.

    My friends,…you don’t want to follow that guy.

  65. If you ever wanted to see what Teddy Roosevelt would have been like with nukes, precision munitions, and PTSD, by all means vote for McCain.

    You get a big LOL and win the thread, “my friend”.

  66. Watching McCain’s crowing. We must marshal (“to bring together and order in an appropriate or effective way”) our economy against extremist Islam, apparently. Gosh, he’s awful.

  67. I was really hoping my candidate, Johan V. Unstructured, could pull it out on the Dem side.

  68. NBC calls WI for Obama

  69. Mickey Kaus is wrong.

    You could make that a macro, you know. Set it so you just hit a Function key.

    Save your wrists, y’know?

  70. “But nonetheless, Reagan was an absolutely ferocious saber-rattler, and the fact that we didn’t become involved in any big wars under him was more a consequence of circumstance than his own predilections.”

    Saber rattling is quite different from starting a war. When a rattlesnake rattles its tail it does so as a warning. Reagan did so as a warning.

    “BTW, FDR, Truman, and Wilson didn’t “start” any major wars, either. They reacted when other people started them.”

    Willson’s case was innexusable. He sided with Britain when they were clearly in the wrong. A pleasurecraft had no business going into a war zone. The U.S. had no interest in the “Great War.” As for Pearl Harbour, that was a reaction to our own trade policies. Rosevelt had earlier placed an embargo on Japan. As for the European War, that was largely the result of Wilson’s insistance in punishing Germany after WWI causing resentment among the German people and at least one Austrian painter.

  71. Woodrow Wilson is the most over-rated President of the 20th Century.

    The only reason hes rated so high is because liberal Democratic Professors do sure love one of their own.

  72. joe | February 19, 2008, 9:16pm | #
    For all I know, GILMORE, you’re the anthrax guy.

    Gentleman’s wager, ok?

    if you mean, “no money involved”, then save your breath. If you mean, “hit me up afterward for transfer of funds” HEY! no sweat. My opinions have a tradeable value and i’m not starting go GNU Licence and shit at this point.

    and the charlatans were also playing the hammond. You’re mixing up apples and kiwis, not even close. Electric pianos are very distinct. great wurly tracks = “these eyes” by the Guess Who – pretty much anything by Ray Charles. Hammond tracks are all over the place. Try “sookie sookie” by Grant Green for a fun one.

  73. PIRS,

    Saber rattling is quite different from starting a war. Tell it to the Austro-Hungarian and Russian Empires.

    Reagan actually was an uber-hawk. He wasn’t faking in all of those speeches in the 50s and 60s and 70s. He blasted detente, he wanted confrontation with the Soviet Union.

    His pivot when Gorbachev came to power and started making changes was a genuine conversion. That’s what makes it so extraordinary; he wasn’t just playing before that. He would have been with the generals during the Cuban Missile Crisis, urging Kennedy to launch the air strikes. On top of that, he was not a brilliant strategic thinker, he was not inclined to pursue arms control and peace treaties, he spent decades urging that we rollback the Soviets until we could devour them whole – and yet he saw the moment when almost none of the people around him, certainly none of his “old fighters,” saw anything but weakness and surrender when he thawed our relations.

  74. It looks weird for Obama, giving his Wisconsin victory speech in Texas. That’s a big slap in the face of a big swing state that turned out for him.

    Maybe he thinks it’s so safe he can diss it. Maybe he expects a 1984-scale victory over McCain, and is just winning the primary.

    It’s a stump speech. He’s telling people to go to the caucuses.

    Wisconsin? What Wisconsin?

  75. OK, “Whiter Shade of Pale.”

  76. I was very young when Reagan was POTUS but I do remember one of his remarks when someone asked him why he did not talk to a Soviety President (pre-Gorby). His respose was that he would expet they kept dying on him. This was a period when Soviet leaders did indeed die with frequency.

  77. Shocking frequency.

    A group of men in their 70s electing the senior among them. What did they expect?

  78. joe | February 19, 2008, 9:43pm | #
    OK, “Whiter Shade of Pale.”

    Still a hammond dude.

    Really, there is an “internet” you can check first if you’re curious.

  79. I’m inclined to think Texas will be closer than Ohio. Obama’s only polling 4 points behind in Texas last I saw. Also, if there’s a trend in Obama vs. Clinton states, it’s that Obama tends to win in states with smaller Democratic populations (North Dakota, Kansas, South Carolina) and Clinton where the Democrats are entrenched (Florida, Massachusetts).

    Also, just to play devil’s advocate on the McCain war thing, to a certain extent I think effectiveness may trump ideology. Whoever is elected will be a wartime president dealing with (at least) two overseas conflicts. McCain undeniably knows more about war than Obama does, from his Senate experience as well as the whole prisoner-of-war thing. Couldn’t a person who agrees with Obama’s overall vision also worry that he’d mess up the details?

  80. Reagan was a good President on balance, but George Bush Sr. is the most underrated President of the last 50 years.

  81. So Shane, are you saying you’ll vote for McCain? All three are dirty boomer-panderers to some degree, but Hilldog and Barack are both stinkin boomers themselves.

    Politics would be a whole lot different if we took away voting cards at the same time we handed out social security checks.

  82. Bush 41 broke a promise to not raise taxes and entered a war which had as one consequence inflaming hatred in the United States in the heart of Osama Bin Ladin. Bush 41 is the Republican Party’s answer to Woodrow Wilson.

  83. and just to get all technical … wurly’s are technically mechanical ‘pianos’ – with mechanical hammers that hit plinky little metal ‘reeds’ that tune them and make nice plinky sounds that can be mechanically modified. It’s basically a percussive instrument.

    Organs on the other hand are in a different family, species wise = they’re ‘sustained note’ items, closer to bagpipes than pianos, really. They have a totally different sound and note-envelope. They have different range and modulation as well. but this is moot. My point was, “kids dont know shit”. And apparently most adults too, when it comes to their ears.

  84. alisa | February 19, 2008, 9:54pm | #
    I’m inclined to think Texas will be closer than Ohio.

    Joe? Money is still on the table. You’re missing a real opportunity here.

  85. Bush 41 at leats got international consensus for his actions in Iraq. He traveled to Europe, he talked to allies to convince them. He didn’t say “Fuck you you FRENCH if you’re not with us!”

  86. The situation with the Soviet leaders is worse than it seems. Andropov had kidney failure three months into his fifteen month term and spend the last six months hospitalized. Chernenko was already ill when he took power and spent most of his thirteen months. And when you add to that the last years of Brezhnev, the Soviet Union was pretty much paralyzed at the very top for most of Reagan’s first term.

  87. Transitioning out of the Cold War is no easy task, either. 41 sucked in domestic policy but he was pretty good in foreign.

  88. Translating into English:

    The situation with the Soviet leaders Was worse than it seems. Andropov had kidney failure three months into his fifteen month term and spent the last six months hospitalized. Chernenko was already ill when he took power and spent most of his thirteen months dying. And when you add to that the last years of Brezhnev, the Soviet Union was pretty much paralyzed at the very top for most of Reagan’s first term.

  89. Most overrated, Wilson.

    Most underrated, Bush or Ford. Once upon a time, it was Harry T., but his reputation has grown steadily since he left office. Just the opposite of Wilson.

  90. Ceasar, so it is OK to get involved in a war that does not involve your country as long as a bunch of “diplomats” from other countries say so? So you would have been OK with his son doing the same if he had a UN resolution warning Iraq of “severe consequences” if they did not cooperate before invading?

  91. Joe, I will agree with you on Ford. Not on Bush 41 though.

  92. What are the terms, GILMORE? I’m a sporting type.

  93. Syd, interesting paragraph, where is that from?

  94. PIRS,

    Bush 41 kicked the Iraqis out of the Kuwait, then left. And he did with an international alliance against a state that Broke The Peace – sent its army across another country’s border to annex it.

    You can certainly take exception to doing that – I disagree, but can see the other fellow’s point – but you must admit, it is hardly the same thing as Bush’s War On…uh…what’s the war about this week? Except not leaving, I mean.

  95. Ideally, I would love to see a figurehead president (say, like Germany’s president). In that case Obama is the perfect presidential candidate. It would suck to have a president who wants to do stuff, lotsa stuff, and *also* have lots of power. Hence, I’d say, vote for the candidate that will do the least as president. The first choice would be Paul. He literally says that he will not do anything as president unless there is a declaration of war.

    Now that Paul has 0 changes (yes, 0), I’d say vote for Obama! He’s the only one saying that all what he will do is bring about change without saying what that really is, which I think means “change=nothing”. So, yes, vote for Obama, for he’ll make a perfect figurehead. He’d be good figurehead president. The others are all deliberate statists and possibly fascists too.

  96. PIRS

    “A bunch of diplomats”

    Memo to PIRS – we aren’t the only country in the world. Stumbling badly into a war on no evidence with no support from anyone else (OK – Britain maybe) is not the way to “defend” ones interests. Bush 41 was a pragmatic president who was able to set goals and actually stick to em. His son can’t manage an office pool.

  97. Ceasar, so it is OK to get involved in a war that does not involve your country as long as a bunch of “diplomats” from other countries say so?

    Not saying it was great, but its sure as hell better than what his son did. I like that he actually talked to other countries. Well, maybe I’m setting the bar too low, but thats easy to do in the (20)00’s.

  98. My thesis advisor was a Romanian who had managed to escape Ceaucescu. He was the most laid back, apolitical person I had ever seen, except for one time when I went into his office shortly after Andropov kicked the bucket and said “So, what do you think about Andropov dying?” He looked up from his desk at me with a scowl and said “They are bastards! I hope they all die!”

    That was pretty much the end of the conversation.

  99. joe | February 19, 2008, 10:16pm | #
    What are the terms, GILMORE? I’m a sporting type.

    I made the call Ohio (BO) and Texas (HC)

    You say other way around.

    We can go straight with that for $50 (i.e. if i get my pair, or you get yours, one lumpen win) If Hil takes both or obama takes both, we’re both wrong and no winner.

    OR – we can go $25 on each, and if they split them either way, we’d end up breaking even regardless of who called it. I’d pick Obama/Obama for both, assuming you’d split on one.

    I ususally put money in iEscrow with intertubes people i make ‘gentleman’s bets’ with. Or paypal if we’re more trusting like. Anyway, if you’re in, let me know. We’ll convene on the 4th to figure out who gets what.

  100. Memmo to Yoshi if you think I am defending Bush 43 I am not. I don’t like EITHER of them. Jeb might not have been bad but he never became POTUS.

  101. Agh – another Clinton speech, this time on how great Ohio is:

    “It gave us my friend and hero … Senator John Glenn.”

    translated:

    “Springfield, are you ready to rock?”

  102. The CW on the Wisconsin primary was that McCain was headed for a safe win, but the race was close on the Democratic side.

    Barack Obama is winning a higher share of his party’s votes than John McCain, with 55+% of the vote counted.

  103. Plant Imigration Rights Supporting | February 19, 2008, 10:19pm | #
    Syd, interesting paragraph, where is that from?

    Just me. The first time it had some mistakes in it that I corrected.

  104. “UPDATE 10:02: In Obama’s victory speech: “If you work in America, you should not be poor.” ”

    And if you don’t work????? Also, what if you work and REALY suck at your job? I mean if you suck like the WB Network in the 1990s.

  105. joe, Charlatans UK were all about the organ. Inspiral Carpets are another ’90s Brit band with an excellent organ sound, too. Check out “Saturn 5.” Noel Gallagher was their guitar tech before he joined (read: took over) Oasis. Don’t know if that’s a positive or negative in your book, but interesting nonetheless.

  106. Syd, good job, I asked because of your comment “translating from English” It made me wonder if it was from secret Soviet document.

  107. Apologies, the “rock” in “Springfield, are you ready to rock?” should have been in all caps.

  108. I’d feel icky betting on Hillary, which is what I’d have to do in Ohio.

    Which is unfortunate, because I think Ohio is a much safer bet than Texas. I think Texas is going to be very close.

    Tell you what: Over/under on HRC’s margin of victory in Texas: 2. I’ll take the under. 2 points is a push. $50.

  109. Oh, who are we kidding? The democratic nomination will be decided the old fashioned way, in a smoke-free back room.

  110. I remember Inspiral Carpets. Commercial Rain

  111. “Oh, who are we kidding? The democratic nomination will be decided the old fashioned way, in a smoke-free back room.”

    So, then you think Hillary WILL get the nomination?

  112. Obviously that’s what he thinks.

    Obama smokes.

  113. joe | February 19, 2008, 10:51pm | #
    I remember Inspiral Carpets. Commercial Rain

    You’re old. 🙂

  114. I remember Michael Jackson’s Thriller album. It was the first LP record I ever bought. He looked human then.

  115. Run-DMC was the first casette I ever bought.

  116. I’m old enough to rememebr uh…um… Guns ‘N Roses?

  117. The Joshua Tree for me. I must have been 5 or 6.

  118. Billboard Top Hits 1966, I believe, or the Doors Greatest Hits. I don’t really know what that says about me.

  119. I got Thriller for Christmas. Yay!

  120. By the time I was really paying attention to music Michael Jackson had become a punch line.

  121. joe | February 19, 2008, 10:49pm | #
    I’d feel icky betting on Hillary, which is what I’d have to do in Ohio.

    Which is unfortunate, because I think Ohio is a much safer bet than Texas. I think Texas is going to be very close.

    Tell you what: Over/under on HRC’s margin of victory in Texas: 2. I’ll take the under. 2 points is a push. $5

    Thanks but i laid an offer down and you’re changing the topic. Either in or out. Yes, no. If not, cool. Go read about the difference between electic pianos vs organs vs like, Moog synthesizers. Fun stuff, really.

  122. I know what a Moog synthesizer is.

  123. Hey hey hey.

    That was a $50. You’re making me look bad. Five dollars.

  124. First CD I ever got was Kid A.
    Before that I was getting Dave Brubeck vinyls from the used record store.
    I don’t know what that says.

  125. “sir”, the croupier says pointing, politely, “this is a $25 minimum table. The slot machines are right over there. Thank you. Betters up?…Thank you/”

  126. Dave Weigel says:
    Lonewacko, an honest question: Which magazines or blogs do you like?

    I’ve considered getting a subscription to ATK, but then again there’s so much free stuff available it’s not really necessary.

    Anywho, I’m thinking of starting a fund that would pay people to go to campaign events and ask the questions the MSM is too corrupt to ask. The only problem with that would be establishing the legal structure and then promoting it, and doing that in time. Another problem would be the fact that I’d like it to be a vehicle for my questions, but others would have their own questions so I’d need to come up with a non-gatekeeper way to deal with that.

    I left a comment on a Veracifier video which they replied to hinting that they were going to do something similar, but that was a couple months ago and I haven’t seen anything yet (besides their “GroundHounds”, who appear to just be partisan hacks).

    Another thing I have to watch out is making sure to avoid the process being corrupted by partisans or other hacks.

    Anyway, thanks for listening as I formulated my plans out loud.

  127. | February 19, 2008, 11:24pm | #
    Dave Weigel says:
    Lonewacko, an honest question: Which magazines or blogs do you like?

    I’ve considered getting a subscription to ATK, but then again there’s so much free stuff available it’s not really necessary.

    Wow.

    That was actually funny.

    And not in the, “funny because you are a repulsive idiotic parody of yourself” kind of way thats normall so endearing. But kudos! that must be like Haley’s Comet or something. Probably never see that again as long as we live.

  128. joe =

    I forgive one of your comments

    see – the extremely well known Wurlitzer piano

    http://images.google.com/images?gbv=2&hl=en&q=wurlitzer+piano&revid=717439668&sa=X&oi=revisions_inline&resnum=0&ct=broad-revision&cd=1

    see – the lesser known, never popular, Wurlitzer Organ

    http://pipedreams.publicradio.org/gallery/pix/midwest/michigan/detroit_foxwurlitzer.jpg

    which meets your conditions for blasphemous equipment of uberpolyphonic obscenity

  129. > I’ve considered getting a subscription to ATK

    ATK = The Assistive Technology for Kansans web site?

  130. I don’t know when this became a music thread, but what the hey, here’s a question. With the exception of Thriller, you guys being completely honest when you say The Joshua Tree or Kid A was the 1st album you bought? I mean, yeah those were popular, but they’re far from popular fare, you know.

  131. I’m being honest when I say Billboard Top Hits 1966…does that get me any street cred?

  132. Now some thoughts on the actual music itself: Thriller justly was and remains a classic, The Joshua Tree maybe second to Achtung Baby but fine still, and Kid A belongs in the concourse of Starbucks.

    And Someone Who Doesn’t Want to Lose His Job, yeah it gets you street cred. With Dick Clark. Still hats off for sheer honesty.

  133. The first album I bought with my own money was Tears for Fears “Songs from the Big Chair.” I was in junior high. But like Cesar above, I wasn’t that into music, so that is also the last (vinyl) album I bought.

    The first CD’s I bought were Actung Baby and the Indigo Girls self titled one (the one w/ closer to fine). Then like most college kids in those days I signed up for BMG and got a shit ton of CD’s, but mostly classic rock, (e.g. Zepplin, Floyd, Eagles, etc)

  134. Hawaii caucus’s just closed. As expected, everyone is reporting record turnout. According to the advertiser, one place had 80 people where normally there had been about 20. 3200 people showed up at an elementary school in the same neighborhood where the University of Hawaii is located.

  135. Actually, the advertiser has a story that because of the huge numbers, some of the caucus sites will still be voting as late as 10 p.m local (3 am eastern)

  136. By the way, I don’t think I have that on Billboard ’66 on CD these days but there’s some good stuff on it if anyone’s into that oldies scene! Actually there are two versions, I had the old one; the new one seems different but still good.

    Shortly after my Billboard days, I started a following of the holy triumvirate of the Doors, Queen, and Led Zeppelin. I suppose, though, that I was a Willie Nelson fan well before everything else, but he’s just barely edged out by the more goofy stuff in the first cassette owned contest.

  137. Kolohe, any news on whether it’s gonna be called quickly or not? Another Obama blowout?

  138. “3200 people showed up at an elementary school in the same neighborhood where the University of Hawaii is located.”

    Then I’m glad I didn’t go. I had a class until 6pm and the caucus was supposed to be at 6:30. I kept thinking, “Maybe I should go, ‘cos otherwise all the other Obama people will think like me and not go,” but apparently one vote really can’t make a difference, so sitting out was the right choice. Then again, nothing’s more fun walk 6 blocks so you can cram into Washington Elementary on King Street.

    Meh, I’ll try harder to vote come November.

  139. Kolohe,

    Then like most college kids in those days I signed up for BMG and got a shit ton of CD’s…

    Did you work full-time or something while you were at school? BMG CDs ain’t actually that cheap, especially when you factor in those individually (and obscenely) calculated s/h costs.

    And Someone Who Doesn’t Want to Lose His Job,

    Shortly after my Billboard days, I started a following of the holy triumvirate of the Doors, Queen, and Led Zeppelin.

    Of the “holy triumvirate” only Queen can bend my ears, and even they sometimes make the Village People mildly campy by comparison. Good call on Willie Nelson, though.

  140. Run-DMC was the first casette I ever bought.

    You be illin’

  141. With 8% reporting CNN is showing an Obama blowout in HI: 77%.

    To stay on-topic with the derail, my first real album that I remember owning was Motley Crue’s Theater of Pain; the first tape I bought myself was Jane’s Addiction’s Ritual de lo Habitual; the first CD I ever bought was the Violent Femmes’ Why Do Birds Sing.

  142. Another great Wurlitzer track: Led Zep’s “Misty Mountain Hop” (the opening riff).

    What’s ATK?

  143. On the Advertiser site 75 to 25 with about 30% in updated about 10:45

    And no didn’t work for BMG nor Columbia house or anything else. Like most things (e.g. credit cards) you just got to work against their business model. Frex, only get the specials. Now, when you have *zero* cd’s to begin with, they have enough of the loss leader specials that you want. IIRC you could also return the auto one’s they gave you if you acted quickly enough, and didn’t do it too often. And you just got to get out after your commitment is up and all that’s left is the crap ones you don’t want – and switch to the other guys. I think the side effects was a bunch of extra junk mail, and I wasn’t perfect, I think I missed one or two of the auto’s I had to pay for. Still, IIRC I think I got about 50 CD’s for a total of about 30-40 dollars, which was pretty good for 1992 and not Hong Kong.

    To bring this back full circle, thanks to Mr Jobs, a kid who’s first vote will be choosing Obama’s successor after his second term, will really never know what a mix tape is

  144. I found this interesting site about the presidential election of 2008. By answering 36 questions you can discover your political position in comparison to the actual candidates. I was closest to Barack Obama. Here’s the link: http://www.electoralcompass.com

  145. NP — yeah, I was being honest. I got it when I was eleven. But I didn’t actually like the music; I had got the idea from some magazine that cool people from the future listened to Radiohead, so I played it dutifully for a while, hoping I’d get cool and futuristic enough to enjoy it.

  146. CNN says Hawaii has a GOP contest on May 18th. For all 10 of them?

    There don’t seem to be many Republicans in Hawaii…It confirms my suspicions that, the attestations of folks like Jerry Falwell to the contrary, Republicans are uncommon in paradise…

  147. Kolohe – I guess the s/h prices weren’t as high back then as now (about $2-3 per CD), so I see how you were able to get more than money’s worth. And in case you don’t know, BMG is the only music club standing today so one can’t play the switching game anymore, but it’s still possible to get a pretty good deal by buying only clearance items and very low-priced box sets (which is what I used to do).

    alisa – IC. And something tells me we probably agree on Radiohead.

    lahigle,

    That’s a good find. It’s really neat to be able to compare your positions with the candidates’ in various combinations by issue. FWIF overall my views are pretty damn close to Paul’s (in fact only Giuliani comes close to my circle), but he was never warm on my voting list. Heh.

    There’s a similar site you may be interested in: http://www.politicalcompass.org. It’s not as fancy as the site you found, but it does boast more questions of a broader scope. Other items of note are the “compasses” not only for the 2004 U.S. presidential election and the ongoing primaries but also for elections in other countries.

  148. I don’t remember the first CD I bought, but I remember when.

    I got Nevermind on tape, but In Utero on CD.

    Broken on tape, but Downward Spiral on CD.

  149. First CD I ever bought: Dire Straits Greatest Hits from a used rack back. I was hooked from that point and went on a Columbia House spree where I think I forgot to return the “I don’t want it” card for almost a year. I was 10. I’m much more responsible now, but still uncivilized.

    (joe, that was for you.)

  150. joe – You got Broken and Nevermind on TAPE? I hope you’ve moved on to DVD for your celluloid needs by now.

    Nick – I used to have Brothers in Arms, which, come to think of it, is Dire Straits’ GH. 🙂

  151. NP, what I had was the Money For Nothing compliation album that wasn’t actually called “Greatest Hits” but for me it was. I still love that album.

  152. MNG-
    CNN says Hawaii has a GOP contest on May 18th. For all 10 of them?

    The contest on May 10th is the state convention. The precinct level caucuses to elect delegates to this state convention have already occurred – in late Jan I think. There may be another intermediate contest as well, but I’m not sure if this has already occured. My boss who’s somewhat involved in republican politics went to it, and it was a vastly smaller affair than yesterday’s event

  153. !!!A lead of 74…It’s still wide open!!! Do NOT give up HILLARY fans!It’s still too close to call and remember, we are talking Experience v Rhetoric. Obama talks of the CHANGE needed, but he has never said what they are! Hillary talks of changes too, in the form of SOLUTIONS and she backs this by telling you how!SO COME ON OHIO AND TEXAS!!! Don’t wait for MARCH 4th VOTE for Hillary NOW! John McCain said of Obama;”Do not be fooled by an eloquent but empty call for change.” Keep it up John, that’s just what Hillraisers need to hear

  154. If the person above me actually represents a real example of Hilary’s base of support, then I am doubling all my earlier bets

    Watch as the hilster goes all negative and loses another 10pts in polls by late next week

  155. The Wurlitzers that were once considered mighty were theatre pipe organs, competitors with Kimball and the like. The phrase [name of organist] at the Mighty Wurlitzer.. would have been used on radio programs and in movie/vaudeville advertising before the advent of TV and the phase-out of the great movie palaces’ practice of actually having orchestras in their orchestra pits or organists in the loft.

    All praise to the Hammond B3, much beloved of Booker T, but don’t let us forget the Vox or the Farfisa. ? and the Mysterians used both, while Doug Sahm’s Sir Douglas Quintent rocked the Farfisa Beat* quite well.

    Me, I never played anything more complicated than an Eminee.

    Kevin

    *Yes, that’s a Squeeze reference.

  156. vox and farfisas sounds are really, really annoying

    A Jaguar, maybe I could handle. But those Doors keyboard riffs made me want to tear my lungs out. Too, too plinky and dated. It comes back from time to time in indie rock, but i’m not ooohing about it.

    The shit is really a rhodes with a little funky modding to it. They growl like Wurlys on demand, or can be glassy. bob james could rock that thing. when he wasnt cheesed out. Herbie. Fat Albert rotunda? ouch. Too many great tunes that have that sounds. Paul simon – Still Crazy after all these years? I wish i had one of those, and I can’t even play keys for beans.

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.