Your Super Tuesday Guide: 8 p.m.

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After the next big round of poll closings…

Alabama

The Democrats (52 delegates)—It's very tight, but with a Democratic electorate that will be more than 40 percent black, Obama should win narrowly. He needs a landslide in the 7th congressional district, a little in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and can afford to lose the rest of the districts. Definitely look at the white vote breakdown.

The Republicans (45 delegates)—After a South Carolina-Florida surge, McCain is favored over Huckabee with a lot of strength in the south of the state, districts 1 and 2. Huckabee can win if he romps in the north.

Connecticut
The Democrats (48 delegates)—If the polls were wrong about the Obama surge, this will be what it was for six months: an easy Clinton sweep with her scoring around 30 delegates. If the polls were right Obama will win with strong support in the wealthy exburbs and poor urban areas.

The Republicans (27 delegates)—It's winner-take-all for the GOP, and McCain will win.

Delaware
The Democrats (15 delegates)—Another state with little polling, but Obama courted it very hard in the final week. His Sunday rally in Wilmington brought out more people–20,000–than voted for John Kerry four years ago. And he won by a landslide. Obama wins fairly strongly.

The Republicans (15 delegates)—A winner-take-all state that usually goes for the establishment frontrunner, but Romney has tried awfully hard to take it.

Illinois
The Democrats (153 delegates)—Obama wins in a landslide, scoring more than 65 percent of the vote and more than 100 delegates.

The Republicans (67 delegates)—Leans toward McCain.

Massachusetts
The Democrats (93 delegates)—Another state where Hillary Clinton lost ground after the Ted Kennedy endorsement, for obvious reasons. She'll win narrowly unless she's in deep, deep trouble.

The Republicans (40 delegates)—Romney's biggest non-Utah win should happen here, and fairly early.

Missouri
The Democrats (72 delegates)—One of the true bellwethers. Obama will win the cities, Hillary the rest of the state.

The Republicans (55 delegates)—Even harder to predict: Huckabee's got some of his best numbers here.

New Jersey
The Democrats (107 delegates)—Obama had a late surge here, but Clinton is still favored.

The Republicans (49 delegates)—Giuliani endorsed McCain; it'd be a shock if he doesn't win, and it's another winner-take-all state.

Oklahoma
The Democrats (38 delegates)—Clinton is heavily favored in this white, poor state that borders on her old home of Arkansas

The Republicans (38 delegates)—For the same reasons, this will be one of Huckabee's best states.

Tennessee
The Democrats (68 delegates)—Clinton's best state in the South, besides Arkansas.

The Republicans (52 delegates)—Another three-way or two-way split, but don't worry: It's the last of these until California.

Arkansas polls close at 8:30, and Clinton and Huckabee are both heavily favored to win big.

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  1. My prediction:

    With the exception of the Deep South, the polls were wrong about the Obama surge.

  2. Just so maybe someone at Reason reads this:

    You’re drawing ads or some sort of site content from the server:

    optimized-by.rubiconproject.com

    and it takes forever – like 3-4 minutes – for that server to respond.

    If it looks like hits and comments are way down in the last hour that’s the reason. I walked away from my computer to just let it wait to get through so I could post this.

  3. What Fluffy said

    your fly-by-night ad server is fucking up

  4. Just so maybe someone at Reason reads this:

    You’re drawing ads or some sort of site content from the server:

    optimized-by.rubiconproject.com

    and it takes forever – like 3-4 minutes – for that server to respond.

    I was having the same problem – taking forever to load – so I added .rubiconproject. to my ad-filters on Adblock and now it’s flying with no problems.

    I don’t know why my filter list didn’t have it but if you’re running firefox with Adblock, try adding that filter.

  5. Early numbers saying Romney is ahead in Delaware.

    Also, he’s ahead in Montana in very early numbers.

  6. Ron Paul is at 2% in Georgia in very early numbers.

  7. Oh, and my predictions for the next round:

    Clinton: New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee

    Obama: Connecticut, Alabama (I think Obama wins rather easily, not narrowly as DW thinks), Missouri, Delaware

    Too close to call? Massachusetts where joe’s vote will tip the scare to Obama

  8. I don’t know why my filter list didn’t have it but if you’re running firefox with Adblock, try adding that filter.

    That works, it’s much better now.

  9. Holy Cram! The numbers for Montana right now:
    JM 30
    MR 24
    MH 11
    RP 23

    Not bad!

  10. Numbers for Montana have just changed. With 5% in, Romney is way out ahead at 34%.

  11. Hey, eric, Romney can have Montana. Really…

    Oh, and the ad server thing is terrible…It asked me if Britney if hotter than Jamie-Lynn (who is that?)?

  12. Eric is wrong. With 9% of the votes recorded in Montana, McCain is leading 39, Romney 36, Paul 15, Huckabee 10

  13. Thank God for Adblock Plus for Firefox 🙂

    I am using my wife’s laptop. She didn’t have it installed, but it is now.

    Blocked: http://optimized-by.rubiconproject.com

  14. T-Shirt: I spent 20 million of my own dollars and all I got was Montana…

  15. when a vote is more than one percentage point, its not good to hold your breath

  16. The CT exit polls look very favorable to Obama (in the sense that the demographics that went for Clinton in the last few contests do not seem to be there this time)

    With the caveat that we have seen that New Englanders apparently love to lie to pollsters ;), this could portend a huge day for Obama, esp out west.

  17. There are reports that Romney is actually tied with McCain in Arizona at 37%.

  18. McCain has 36% in Tennessee. I can read numbers off of CNN.

  19. Why Arkansas still love the Clintons, who haven’t lived there for 20 years, I don’t understand.

  20. Well, sure, Dondero. An Arizona Senator vs. the Mormon majority voters? It should be a landslide… We’ve got a temple here, in Mesa, after all.

  21. Paul has 4% in Missouri. 1% of the vote has been counted in New Jersey. Romney is in third in Oklahoma.

  22. Someone is posting under my name. Disregard the top two posts which are not from me.

  23. Dondero is right on this one. I hate to say it. Romney is the only fiscal conservative left in the race. Ron Paul is finished as of tonight. He just polled 2% in Georgia.

    At some point we have to admit to ourselves that the Revolution has failed.

  24. Yeah Fluffy, I’m coming around to siding with you on that. Paul’s showing in Georgia was just embarrassing. That should have been a State where Paul shined, given its proximaty to Alabama with Lew Rockwell and the paleos.

    I’m jumping off the Ron Paul sinking ship. Maybe Romney is the best?

  25. Cesar-As you know, I’m no HRC fan, but maybe, like the nation thinks of Bill, those in Arkansas don’t feel they were ruled badly by the Clintons…

    Fluffy-You are drunk or something. How is Romney more of a fiscal conservative than McCain or anyone for that matter…He’s a fake bastard and that’s all…

  26. LOL that is such an unconvincing spoof post from “Fluffy”

  27. I thought it was fake too, hence the “are you drunk” comment…But McCain hate does do funny things to people…

  28. I like Obama…He’s smart and so far not sleazy…I had HUGE reservations about him, but those numbers of indies he’s bringing in sealed it for me…I never thought a draft dodging, admitted pot smoking, cheating southern governor would ever be elected president, so wtf do I know?

    Obama in 08!

  29. Yes, it must have been a spoof. But he’s right on one thing: Ron Paul is finished after tonight. 2% in Georgia?

    He’s not winning any States. I thought for sure he’d at least take Montana or North Dakota.

    Time to pull the curtains on the Ron Paul Campaign, and move on to something else… maybe Libertarian Party?

  30. MNG,

    Really…how many people are going to buy into the Romney is the best conservative clap. Nobody knows who are what ROmney stands for, only that he’s been programmed to say whatever sounds best at the time. His sickening pandering to Iowans and Michiganers and Floridians and whoever else he wants votes from is enough to make me vomit. He is not a true conservative, he’s a pure politician, lyingg and deceiving his way to a presidency. Of course there might be one reason to vote for him and that would be so we can have the greatest democratic blowout of all time.

  31. I especially like Obama cause he’s aligned himself with Muslim America. It’s time we stop all these Warhawks. Wouldn’t it be embarrassing for them if we elected a Muslim named Hussein.

    Go Obama!

  32. i see i lack the sense of irony gene….

  33. Romney lost West Virginia, which should have been an easy sweep. A word of caution to anybody tempted to support this “losertarian”, right Rittberg?

  34. What’s up with Ron Paul? I thought he’d do better. I can’t believe he only got 2% in Georgia. He didn’t win West Virginia. All the Paul supporters I know were saying he’d definitely pick up W VA.

    I too may go with Obama. Be pleasant revenge to all those NeoCons, that we elect a Pro-Islamic Anti-War in Iraq Democrat.

    Obama may bring us Sharia Law. But it’s better than NeoConism.

  35. Dondero, your blog still shows your post from earlier proclaiming Mitt Romney winning WV. Way to jump the gun.

  36. Uh, Dondero that wasn’t me posting as you. So if you’re spoofing me as “revenge” it doesn’t work very well.

  37. Someone spoofed MNG.

  38. Dondero, you cunt, that wasn’t me that spoofed your ID, so if that was you who spoofed me because you were being a whiny ass titty baby, you suck more cock than usual.

  39. Dondero if you’re going to spoof people at least get their writer’s voice right. What you posted didn’t sound remotely like MNG. In fact, it sounded a lot like you.

  40. Cesar: His chintzy writing style sticks out like Waldo in a four man crowd. I have no doubt.

  41. not sure why i’m being spoofed, but ok…

  42. not sure why i’m being spoofed, but ok…

    Because Dondero has backed two losers and is upset.

  43. Hey Caligula, or Cesar Augustus or whatever you call yourself, STOP POSTING UNDER MY NAME YOU SCUMBAG!

  44. I’ve “backed two losers”?

    Really?

    Which Presidential candidate got 2% in Georgia today?

    Which Presidential candidate is polling 2.5% in Massachusetts?

    T’aint my guy Mitt Romney. Mitt’s won two states tonight already – Mass and Utah.

    Ron Paul? How many States will he win tonight?

  45. We’re through the looking-glass here people . . .

  46. Paul at %3 in GA so far. That doesn’t seem right.
    Georgia is a pretty strong libertarian State and he was polling at %12 recently. I was expecting %7-9.

  47. Let’s see, Romney’s states won so far

    Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Michigan, Massachusetts.

    So, as long he finds a few more states that he’s either a legacy of, has governed or is heavily mormon, he’s a shoe in.

  48. I think I missed something. What happened to Barack in Michigan? The results I’ve seen (from January primary) are 55% Clinton and 40% “other”.

  49. Bigbigslacker–

    Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan.

  50. There goes hothead Rittberg again. Your backup man, Moneybags Romney, the guy who tried to buy many states. Lost Florida, is going to lose Connecticut which is right across the border from MA, lost Delaware a major business and banking centre, totally ate shit in South Carolina, couldn’t even take New Hampshire which is directly north of the most conservative parts of Massachusetts. He’s going to eat shit hard in New York. Whoever said you back losers is utterly correct, your backup man has a very rotten bang for the buck value because he’s a lying sack of shit liberal from Massachusetts.

  51. Bigbig –

    Obama didn’t run in Michigan because the state was stripped of its delegates due to its violation of DNC rules. The Other vote represents a protest vote that includes a lot of Obama voters.

  52. I work with a guy who left early to go vote for Clinton. I told him I’d worry more about the snowstorm were about to get creamed by than voting for Clinton – particularly since we’re in Illinois where Obama was projected to win by 25%. He liked Ron Paul better than any of the others, but “wasted vote”, etc. I found that amusing. Ron Paul is a “wasted vote”, yet he was running out to vote for Hillary who was a sure loser in this state.

  53. Thanks Fluffy – didn’t know Michigan was one that was penalized. Would have been interesting given the African American and Muslim demographic. (not implying Barack is Muslim, but his upbringing might have brought him some Muslim support)

  54. Kolohe | February 5, 2008, 8:26pm | #
    The CT exit polls look very favorable to Obama (in the sense that the demographics that went for Clinton in the last few contests do not seem to be there this time)

    With the caveat that we have seen that New Englanders apparently love to lie to pollsters ;), this could portend a huge day for Obama, esp out west.

    With the relative shelacking by Clinton of Obama in MA, I think the above prediction is looking as good as the one I made of a Patriots victory.

  55. Don’t believe the results from Mass yet. Boston hasn’t reported a single vote.

  56. McCain won Illinois.

    (I have nothing to contribute in the way of commentary so I list numbers I see on the tee-vee.)

    Huckabee is at 30% in Minnesota.

    (I am incredibly easy to troll.)

    Uh-oh, Paul only takes 5% in New Jersey.

    (If McCain wins the primary, I’m switching to mainstream libertarian Hillary Clinton.)

  57. Hey Doc! Why does it burn when I pee?

  58. Yes, joe I was spoofed! Muslim America! LOL! I don’t know any Muslim-Americans…(But note what anti-Barakians will be saying…)

  59. My last post, other than 9:37 was 8:49

  60. I’m not sure HRC gets any more votes than Obama, and I’m sure Obama gets votes that HRC will not get…

    Will McCain make people sit home?

    I’m just glad the movement conservatives will realize their impotence…Limbaugh: you are worthless…

  61. Bill Bennet: who is he betting on?

    Does his betting addiction interfere with his analysis?

  62. “Oklahoma
    The Democrats (38 delegates) – Clinton is heavily favored in this white, poor state that borders on her old home of Arkansas”

    Well, excuse my dust!

  63. funny thing is, I’ve been spoofing myself for years. Hell, I don’t even know what’s true any more.

  64. I’m gonna cum! I’m gonna cum! AHHHHHHHHH!

    Now where’s the Kleenex?

  65. When Eric and Jake were here petitioning they told a story about how Eric and this guy they called Cold House. I think they called him that because he lived in Alaska. They said Eric tried to get the Alaska guy to marry a Chinese woman so she could stay in America. Eric wasn’t going to pay the guy or nothing. But the Chinese woman would sleep with him whenever he wanted and she would get a job. I figured Eric was getting money for setting it up, but he never said so.

    So, how hard is it to get set up? Could I marry a Chinese guy and get paid for it? How long would I have to stay married to him? What if he is all nice, but once I marry him, he is a jerk? Can I just kick him out? Will I have to give back the money?

    Will I have to sleep with him? I’ll do it if I have to, but if he’s a jerk then I am not doing it. Or if he’s ugly or gross. Or old or fat. If he’s normal and not a jerk, then I would. Is there any chance of getting in trouble?

    There are not that many jobs here and I don’t really want to move. Does anyone know how this thing works? I think if I ask Eric he will just lie.

  66. I meant to put that last post in quotes and include a url for where I saw it on 4and20 blackbirds. The liberals evidently hate him too.

    http://4and20blackbirds.wordpress.com/2006/12/04/creep-eric-dondero/

    What is this woman talking about?

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