After the next big round of poll closings…
The Democrats (52 delegates)—It's very tight, but with a Democratic electorate that will be more than 40 percent black, Obama should win narrowly. He needs a landslide in the 7th congressional district, a little in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and can afford to lose the rest of the districts. Definitely look at the white vote breakdown.
The Republicans (45 delegates)—After a South Carolina-Florida surge, McCain is favored over Huckabee with a lot of strength in the south of the state, districts 1 and 2. Huckabee can win if he romps in the north.
The Democrats (48 delegates)—If the polls were wrong about the Obama surge, this will be what it was for six months: an easy Clinton sweep with her scoring around 30 delegates. If the polls were right Obama will win with strong support in the wealthy exburbs and poor urban areas.
The Republicans (27 delegates)—It's winner-take-all for the GOP, and McCain will win.
The Democrats (15 delegates)—Another state with little polling, but Obama courted it very hard in the final week. His Sunday rally in Wilmington brought out more people–20,000–than voted for John Kerry four years ago. And he won by a landslide. Obama wins fairly strongly.
The Republicans (15 delegates)—A winner-take-all state that usually goes for the establishment frontrunner, but Romney has tried awfully hard to take it.
The Democrats (153 delegates)—Obama wins in a landslide, scoring more than 65 percent of the vote and more than 100 delegates.
The Republicans (67 delegates)—Leans toward McCain.
The Democrats (93 delegates)—Another state where Hillary Clinton lost ground after the Ted Kennedy endorsement, for obvious reasons. She'll win narrowly unless she's in deep, deep trouble.
The Republicans (40 delegates)—Romney's biggest non-Utah win should happen here, and fairly early.
The Democrats (72 delegates)—One of the true bellwethers. Obama will win the cities, Hillary the rest of the state.
The Republicans (55 delegates)—Even harder to predict: Huckabee's got some of his best numbers here.
The Democrats (107 delegates)—Obama had a late surge here, but Clinton is still favored.
The Republicans (49 delegates)—Giuliani endorsed McCain; it'd be a shock if he doesn't win, and it's another winner-take-all state.
The Democrats (38 delegates)—Clinton is heavily favored in this white, poor state that borders on her old home of Arkansas
The Republicans (38 delegates)—For the same reasons, this will be one of Huckabee's best states.
The Democrats (68 delegates)—Clinton's best state in the South, besides Arkansas.
The Republicans (52 delegates)—Another three-way or two-way split, but don't worry: It's the last of these until California.
Arkansas polls close at 8:30, and Clinton and Huckabee are both heavily favored to win big.