Your Super Tuesday Guide: 7 p.m.


This will be the first of several Super Tuesday voting roundup threads about the raw vote, and what to expect. Every Democratic primary is proportional: Some of the votes are allocated statewide, some are allocated by congressional district. There are exceptions in New Jersey (20 "delegate districts") and small states (Delaware gives 2 delegates to Wilmington, 4 to the biggest county not counting the city, 2 each to the smaller counties). The Republican races range from winner-take-all to proportional.

The Democrats
(87 delegates)—Obama will win, and the ease of his win will be illustrative. If it's another South Carolina-style instant call, he'll have a good night. The blacker, more Democratic congressional districts (2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 12th, 13th) get more delegates, so a strong Obama performance will let him run up the delegate score. He should get between 55 and 60 delegates.

The Republicans (72 delegates)—It's a genuine three-way race between McCain, Huckabee, and Romney: Huckabee has fallen and the other two have risen since he lost South Carolina. Lucky for one of them, the statewide winner gets 33 delegates. Lucky for the others, the 13 congressional districts each give their delegates to the winner of that district. Look at John "Fair Tax" Linder's district, the 7th, to see if there's a big Fair Tax or Neal Boortz vote for Huckabee or Paul.

UPDATE: Obama wins, and the exits suggest he got 66-67 percent of the vote. 50 percent say the Ted Kennedy endorsement mattered: Obama won 81 percent of them. Obama won 43 percent of the white vote.

UPDATE: CNN exits for the GOP race show Paul pulling a very poor 4th place and McCain winning narrowly over Huckabee.