Super Tuesday Part III: 9 p.m.

A large number of caucuses will be going on now, but these two primaries will close.

Arizona
The Democrats (56 delegates) - Clinton gets more of a fight than she wanted but eventually rides a 2-1 lead in Latino votes to victory.

The Republicans (50 delegates) - Immigration phobes be damned: McCain wins easily.

New York
The Democrats (232 delegates) - Clinton wins, and it will be called almost immediately. Watch for Obama's strength in New York City.

The Republicans (98 delegates) - McCain rides the moderate GOP vote and the Rudy endorsement to victory.

Caucuses to watch around this time: Minnesota (both parties), North Dakota (both parties), Kansas (Democrats), New Mexico (Democrats), Idaho (Democrats).

Comments

[Chris Potter]

Uh, the polls are still open in NY. I just got back from voting for Huckabee.

...psych

[Click \'n\' Learn]

Of course, if Weigel wanted to be intellectually honest (perhaps in an alternate universe or something), he'd point out that opposition to illegal activity isn't a phobia. He'd also point out that McCain couldn't have done whatever he did without the assistance of the media pushing him and also allowing him to lie.

Maybe Weigel should consider opposing the MSM spreading lies.

[Cesar]

This doesn't seem like a good night for Obama.

[BakedPenguin]

Watch out, Lonewacko! It's a Mexican!

[BakedPenguin]

Cesar, why do you say that?

[Chris Potter]

Weigel,

There you go again, assuming Rudy has some sort of sway in the NYS GOP. Repeat: the vast majority of NYS Republicans live more than a hundred miles from NYC, and the biggest Republican county in the state is on Lake Erie, not the Hudson.

[Cesar]

Cesar, why do you say that?

Just a feeling. Hillary has the infrastructure and organization in place in all 50 states. Obama doesn't. Thats what killed him in NH.

[joe]

Obama's winning a lot. He's ahead in delegates.

[BakedPenguin]

It looks like Obama is going to take CT, and he's pasting Clinton in AL, although that could be a result of specific precincts reporting in.

[joe]

Interesting: there were tornadoes in Tennessee, specifically in Memphis and its surrounding county, today. Obama country.

[Cesar]

Obama is really getting creamed in New Jersey, though.

[Happy Jack]

McCain rides the moderatelibertarian GOP vote and the Rudy endorsement to victory.

Real libertarians, who handed out toilet paper in the Navy, know that an endorsement from libertarian Rudy is as good as gold.

Go McCain!1! The only libertarian left in the race!

[Cesar]

Hildog just one the Mass primary despite the Ted Kennedy endorsement. And it was called early. This looks like Hillary's night.

[joe]

Tonight is Hillary's last firewall. Her big, scary national machine is supposed to allow her to thump an insurgent challenger in a contest of such national scope. If she can't, it's just her against him in chunks of 1-3 states from here on out.

Maybe she can win such a contest, but it certainly isn't the territory she wanted to fight on, especially not from roughly equal ground.

[Chris Potter]

Most of the Republican officials in NYS who were publicly supporting anyone actually endorsed Romney, if that's any indication.

[joe]

They haven't reported a single precinct from Boston.

[Eric Dondero]

Hey guys, Ron Paul just pulled a whopping 2% in Georgia. He's polling 2.5% in Mass.

You all Paul fanatics gotta be pretty happy with those results 'eh?

[Cesar]

Joe, I can't imagine MSNBC would call it if they thought it would be close after Boston.

[Chris Potter]

Ron Paul is in 2nd in NYS so far...

[Colin]

Hey, just wait till Utah comes in, buddy.

[BakedPenguin]

NJ - Only 1% of the precincts reporting, if they're in southern part of the state, wait 'til Jersey City & Newark precincts come in. Obama will probably do a lot better there.

[PantsFan]

Ron Paul has 50% in Minnesota right now

[crw]

Don't forget, Dems have no winner take all states. Obama only needs to split the delegates with Clinton in the big states to keep his campaign alive.

[Cesar]

Don't forget, Dems have no winner take all states. Obama only needs to split the delegates with Clinton in the big states to keep his campaign alive.

The media will spin it in such a way that makes Hillary look like the big winner if she takes the big states regardless of the delegate count. Obama needs to come in with some BIG wins tonight to have a chance at the nomination.

[PantsFan]

Ron Paul dropped quickly to 38%

[joe]

CNN isn't calling Massachusetts or New Jersey, and MSNBC is. Weird, they all usually fall into line very closely.

[Cesar]

Joe who are they calling New Jersey for?

[joe]

The media are going to spin things for Hillary Clinton? And an early finish?

I don't think so, Cesar. This is going to be reported as a mixed result unless somebody dominates nationwide, and already that's not happening.

Watch the spin right now. "They've both won in every region of the country."

[joe]

New Jersey isn't up right now, Cesar.

They called Delaware for Obama.

[joe]

Still no call in New Jersey, Cesar.

[SIV]

Fox called Jersey for Clinton.

[joe]

I wonder if Massachusetts independants all voted for McCain to spite Mitt.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Whatever else he is, Ron Paul is a principled person in an age in which there are few principled person (especially in politics). Like many principled politicians, he has been f*cked 10 ways sideways, and to be honest, he has bumblef*cked quite a bit.

Paul has run an honorable campaign in a party with little honor. Kudos to him.

At least be happy that Romney is feeling it tonight. Romney if the complete opposite of the principled politican RP is. He will say and do anything to win power. RP is the opposite. Maybe RP got buried, but the good news is that some rich, superficial bastard like Romney cannot buy his way into the same spot.

Good for America...

[crw]

I agree with joe. The media will spin this as mixed results unless there's a decisive victory. They have a vested interest to keep this horse race going all the way to the convention so they can milk it for more drama.

The only one they're likely to fluff tonight is (*gag*) McCain.

[BakedPenguin]

ABC just called NJ for HRC.

[SIV]

Mary Katharine Ham is extremely hot.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Can I ask something: why did no real conservative run? They could have had this...McCain is genuinely hated by the Limbaugh-heads...Romney is rightly distrusted by EVERYONE...But SURELY there is an actual conservative that could have run...WTF?

[joe]

ABC called NJ a while ago.

CNN is being a lot more cautious than the others.

[Cesar]

Unless Obama wins Cali it will be at best a mixed result for him.

However, I mixed result is good for him because he has a good chance to sweep the Chesapeake primary (MD, DC, VA) next week.

[SIV]

MNG

Fred Thompson was the conservative candidate-
and he blew it.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Cesar-I don't live in the Old Dominion anymore...It's up to you, vote Obama in the Primary!

[SIV]

CNN is being a lot more cautious than the others.

Or maybe they just suck at news.

[Eric Dondero]

Yeah, Ron Paul is a "principled person" alright. Big supporter of Term Limits when he ran in 1996. He fooled South Texas voters, saying he's "only serve 4 terms." Now he's heading into his 6th term. So much for Term Limits for Ron Paul.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

He really did disappoint SIV, that first debate he was in...Surely there was more there for the conservatives!

But then, I think the Democrat frontrunners is an exercise in suicide...(I would have picked Mark Warner)

[joe]

Even if Obama wins California, it's likely to still be a mixed result for him.

There was a chance Obama was going to have a breakout night tonight, but that doesn't look like it's happening.

If Obama can close the delegate gap at all tonight, they come out of this tied.

[Ben]

I voted for Ron Paul in New York City this morning and loved every second of it. I'm also pretty sure I was the only one voting Republican out of the 30 or so people there.

[Colin]

Allen was to be the conservative, and then he imploded. Then Thompson, and he imploded. And Jeb wouldn't run.

So, now they're stuck with what they got.

[joe]

CNN: Your Most Sucky Name In News

[Eric Dondero]

Ron Paul goes around the country speaking to Leftwing groups and Libertarian Conventions talking about how he's "Anti-War," and saying how "Bush failed, the War must stop."

Yet, when election time comes around in SC, he sends out a mailing to Veterans talking about how he's a "strong supporter" of the War in Iraq and the US Military.

That's your "principled person" for ya.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Believe it or not SIV, I like conservatism...Fred Thompson as the best conservative?

This is Reagan country, WTF?

[joe]

The woman in front of me at the middle school told the election volunteer that she was a libertarian, but could she reregister that day to vote in the Republican primary? The lady just handed her a ballot and crossed her out of the street list, so there's one for Ron Paul from Lowell.

[Cesar]

Joe, if its a tied result thats great for him at this point. The primaries next week are big in his favor. MD (due to Prince Geroge's County and Baltimore) and DC (duh) are guaranteed wins for him.

Virginia will be the battleground. It will be a war of turnout between Northern Virginia and Appalachia (Clinton) vs. The 3rd Congressional District, Southisde, and the college towns (Obama).

[joe]

It was tough, seeing the Dodd was still on the ballot, but he's out of the race.

Go Barack!

[BakedPenguin]

McCain just took NY - Hickabee's taken a few states. Romney is coming in third in a two person race.

[SIV]

I wonder if Paul's poor showing in GA and AL was a result of the perceived tight 3 way race for first?

[Cesar]

I wonder if Paul's poor showing in GA and AL was a result of the perceived tight 3 way race for first?

I think its because the Deep South doesn't like a strongly anti-war candidate.

[Brian Courts]

Of course, if Weigel wanted to be intellectually honest (perhaps in an alternate universe or something), he'd point out that opposition to illegal activity isn't a phobia.

Of course if lonewacko wanted to be intellectually honest (yeah yeah, I know, stop laughing) he'd admit that it isn't the illegality of the activity he's opposed to. If it were he'd have no problem with my plan to simply allow in legally anyone who wants to come here (after basic checks for criminal activity, etc.). Since he won't support that plan there is clearly something other than the illegality of crossing a border without permission that bothers him which makes his arguing that point rather intellectually dishonest. Guess we can now throw hypocrisy on the list as well.

[Eric Dondero]

There's a lot of Black Americans in Georgia. No doubt Ron Paul calling Martin Luther King a "Gay Pedophile" in his Newsletters didn't help him much.

[Kolohe]

The Republicans (50 delegates) - Immigration phobes be damned: McCain wins easily.

This looks to be the second worse prediction of the night (first was my Obama surge prediction on the other thread)

[joe]

Yes, there are, Eric. They're all Democrats.

[SIV]

I think its because the Deep South doesn't like a strongly anti-war candidate.

They don't for sure. I thought the distatse for big government would offset that for high single digit votes for Paul.

Karl Rove on Fox.

[Cesar]

SIV-

Before 2001 the Republicans were the party of small government.

Post-2001, they're the Party of War.

[Lost_In_Translation]

joe,

nuh-uh. Clarence Thomas is a republican, =P

[Kolohe]

Real libertarians, who handed out toilet paper in the Navy, know that an endorsement from libertarian Rudy is as good as gold.

To be fair, after you've been at sea for over 100 days in a row and are starting to run low, you realize how vital this job is.

[joe]

Clarence Thomas lives in Washington DC. Thhpppptttt.

[Lost_In_Translation]

joe,

uh...well..i know this one guy...he might just be tan though

[SIV]

Cesar,

I am blaming that on the leadership.Nothing like a Democrat Party controlled government to bring the Republicans "home".

[Strange Botwin]

Dondero, you are one bitter person. Do you lay awake at night thinking about Ron Paul and how you're so much better than him? I bet you would like him more if he grew a sweet mustache.

[Roger Maltz]

Poor bitter Rittberg. It just gets more pathetic by the day. No dicks left to suck.

[Chris Potter]

There's a lot of Black Americans in Georgia. No doubt Ron Paul calling Martin Luther King a "Gay Pedophile" in his Newsletters didn't help him much.

I might be giving in to racial stereotypes, but I doubt that many Georgia blacks are Republicans, let alone read the blogs they'd have to to get that info.

[joe]

Howard Dean sez:

"This won't be decided tonight. This will be decided in the next 3-4 weeks."

[Cesar]

I still say Barack Obama will go down with Adlai Stevenson, Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart, and Jerry Brown.

[Kolohe]

If there are a lot of joint DNC/candidate fundraisers, I would think Dean would have a vested interest in keeping this going as long as possible. Not sure if joint fundraisers are legal though.

[Brian Courts]

Howard Dean sez:

"This won't be decided tonight. This will be decided in the next 3-4 weeks yeeeeeeaawwwwww!"

[Kolohe]

Barack has about a 40% chance of winning the nomination this time.

He has close to 100% chance of being sworn in as POTUS some time prior to Jan 21 2017.

[Brett]

Obama's winning a lot. He's ahead in delegates.

joe, where are you seeing this? I'm not near a TV but don't see any updated delegate counts, just the old 261-190 lead for HRC. Based on results I've seen so far, it's not clear that Obama would have closed the gap much, much less moved ahead.

[Cesar]

I'd say Obama has 20% chance of winning the nomination.

[joe]

Hillary's a good candidate, Cesar. She ran a flawless campaign for months. She could win this.

But if she does, it will because she was the better candidate in a competitive contest, and won over the electorate.

By some lights, this was supposed to be over by now.

[Eleanor Roosevelt\'s Ghost]

Barack has about a 40% chance of winning the nomination this time.

He has close to 100% chance of being sworn in as POTUS some time prior to Jan 21 2017.

Like my Husband, President Hillary Rodham will serve 4 terms leading this country through the 12-16 years of the Great Depression and the World War.

[Kolohe]

I based the short term on in-trade, so 20 is also as good of a guess as any.
I base the long term prediction on the under 40 years old numbers; Obama is swamping Clinton here.

[joe]

Brett,

I saw a count on CNN of delegates won tonight. CNN is providing delegate projections based on the reporting precincts.

[Cesar]

It comes down to Missouri and Colorado. If Obama wins in both of those, its a good night. If he gets Arizona and California in addition them, then my prediction about Clinton winning the nomination is in serious jeopardy.

[Pac]

Here's a bumblef*ck for ya...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ronpaul2008/857268155/

Well, it looks like it's time for me to join the non-voting movement

[Ali]

How idiotic can that be, 7,887 New Yorkers voted for Rudy!?!?

[joe]

Hasn't Missouri already been called for Clinton?

California and New York are going to be all about the delegates.

[Brian Courts]

I'd say Obama has 20% chance of winning the nomination.

I'd say his chances are better than that... I was thinking Clinton would probably still get it but Obama seems to be picking up momentum and Clinton is not going to get a decisive win today which I had thought she might just a week ago. Right now I'd go more like 55-45 Clinton, but it's close. She really needs to win California tonight because I just can't see her getting the nomination without it.

[Kolohe]

One more for Ms. Elanor-

If President Clinton still has >10,000 troops in Iraq in Fall 2011, Obama will put up a primary challenge and either win due to Clinton dropping out a la Johnson, or else will beat Clinton and the Republican (Romney) as a third party candidate (exceeding what was even possible for TR)

[Brett]

joe, thanks. Just found it on cnn.com. For others not near a TV, updated delegate counts here. Thus far, HRC has slightly increased her lead.

[Lost_In_Translation]

strangely enough, Missouri hasn't been called for Clinton yet (atleast on RCP), though she does have a sizable lead.

[Brian Courts]

Hasn't Missouri already been called for Clinton?

It hasn't been called by CNN. Dunno about the others.

[Kolohe]

Make that 25,000; Clinton is smart enough to hide 10,000 troops with cycling back and forth with Kuwaiti bases.

[joe]

A civil war shortly after capturing the White House and establishing a huge majority in Congress, Kolohe?

That does sound like something the Democrats would do, doesn't it?

[Sparky]

Clinton is ahead by quite a bit in Missouri, but does anyone know which precincts (29% total) have reported? St. Louis isn't known for its speed and competence in these matters, so if it comes in late that should be a big boost for Obama.

[Brian Courts]

Wow, Massachusetts went to Clinton? That is a big win for her - I thought it was going to be very close but that Kennedy's endorsement and joe's vote would tip that to Obama. 🙂

[Cesar]

Missouri being called for Clinton? Thats really, really bad for Obama who campaigned hard there.

[joe]

Make that 25,000; Clinton is smart enough to hide 10,000 troops with cycling back and forth with Kuwaiti bases

Don't our troops deserve anti-obesity programs, too?

Brian, it's likely that Clinton will win Massachusetts, but the numbers they're providing are greatly distorted. They haven't reported a single precinct from Boston or Cambridge, for example.

[Ali]

I think that the 7,887 votes that went to Rudy in NY can all be traced back to Dondero. Hewas really enthusiastic for him.

[SIV]

Huckabee just used biblical allusions to tear Romney a new one.

[Kolohe]

On home team advantage:

Obama IL 65% (+32 over 2nd place)
Huck AR 62% (+41 over 2nd place)
Clinton NY 60% (+22 over 2nd place)
Mitt MA 51% (+10 over 2nd place)
McCain AZ to close to call

So should the home town hero cup go to Obama?
Or give the award to the Huckster with a larger margin in a 3 or 4 way race.

[Sparky]

I just found some info on the precincts reporting in Missouri - nothing in St. Louis city, very little in St. Louis county. I don't know if Obama can catch up, but it should end up substantially closer than the current numbers.

http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/raceresults.asp?eid=203&oid=46484&arc=

[Cesar]

Romeny is done. Period.

[Brian Courts]

Brian, it's likely that Clinton will win Massachusetts, but the numbers they're providing are greatly distorted. They haven't reported a single precinct from Boston or Cambridge, for example.

So you think it won't be as big of a win as it looks? CNN has already called it for her so I assume they know form exit polling that the numbers are far enough in her favor to be a safe call now.

[Kolohe]

Don't our troops deserve anti-obesity programs, too?

Ha. If the budget busting continues, then in a few years a rotation cycle may literally have to be on Schwinns

[Ali]

Romeny is done. Period.

What about Paul? No? 😉

[joe]

Brian,

I seriously doubt Hillary will win Massachusetts by double digits, but she will very likely win.

It's a great save for her.

[Andrew]

Kolohe,

Where are you seeing that Arizona is too close to call? CNN has him at over 50%.

[Jennifer]

Ron Paul just pulled a whopping 2% in Georgia. He's polling 2.5% in Mass. You all Paul fanatics gotta be pretty happy with those results 'eh?

He still creamed your boy Giuliani, Eric. You all authoritarian fanatics gotta be pretty happy with those results, eh?

[Rhywun]

CNN has him at over 50%.

It also shows 0% returns. Not sure what that means. They're just going on exit polls?

[Rhywun]

Huh. The only county Obama won in NY is Tompkins, i.e. Ithaca. That's certainly instructive.

[Andrew]

It also shows 0% returns. Not sure what that means. They're just going on exit polls?

I'm seeing 39% of precincts reporting.

[Rhywun]

Well sure. It's 20 minutes later 🙂

[Tom Walls]

Either you're hitchhiking or you're on the Straight Talk Express, 'cause that's the only bus outta town tonight.

Ron is hitting in the double digits in a couple of those flyover states.

Apparently some people didn't get the memo that Rudy dropped out, as they are still voting for him.

[Jacob]

I would like to point out that white people are less racist than latinos, since we are voting for Obama and they are voting for Clinton.

[flying squirrel]

Asian-Americans also vote overwhelmingly for Clinton rather than Obama.

80% of black people voted for Obama.

Racial motivations, anyone?