Nevada/South Carolina Caucus/Primary Thread/Post (with Predictions)

|

Three elections are happening tonight: The Republican primary in South Carolina and the dual party caucuses in Nevada. Nobody disputes that the South Carolina primary will have the largest impact. If Fred Thompson doesn't come in at least a strong second—that is, if he doesn't rise to about 75 percent as high as he was when he belly-flopped into the race—the clock will start on when he drops out and endorses John McCain. If Mike Huckabee beats John McCain and stops his surge, the water gets a lot warmer for Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. If McCain wins, he gets a story he's been craving since 2000, and that the media will tenderly and lovingly report.

The Nevada caucuses, however end at 1 p.m. ET, so we'll be hearing their results first. South Carolinans wrap it up at 7. Nevada results here, South Carolina here.

Nevada—The Republicans

1. Mitt Romney (37 percent)
He's the only frontrunning candidate who's put in an effort, and will claim his third "gold." By the end of the day he'll have more delegates than John McCain, but no one will notice if McCain wins South Carolina.

2. John McCain (23 percent)
He's taken the admirable (and correct) position on Yucca Mountain: It's a great place for nuclear waste! But he made an early, correct calculation that this race wouldn't matter.

3. Ron Paul (12 percent)
I'm betting this will be his best state yet: Sizable libertarian vote, low turnout, super-excited (and excitable) base. Only shoddy organizing could keep him from performing well, and from what I understand Vijay Boyapati of Operation Live Free or Die is trying to correct that potential problem. (It's what he told me in New Hampshire.)

4. Rudy Giuliani (11 percent)

Just a guess, here. How many ex-New Yorkers are in this state? How many have been paying attention to Rudy's piss-poor run so far?

5. Mike Huckabee (9 percent)
He's not doing that well outside of farm states and the South.

6. Fred Thompson (6 percent)

He's not doing well, period.

7. Duncan Hunter (2 percent)

The Kucinich of the Right has put in enough effort here to only partially embarrass himself.

Nevada—The Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton (38 percent)
She's winning ugly, but she's winning. It would be a close to double-digit win if not for the culinary union backing Obama.

2. Barack Obama (35 percent)
I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled it out: He's had a good run since New Hampshire, and the Clintons have looked a little ridiculous in their blitzkrieg against the culinary union.

3. John Edwards (25 percent)

I've already got a press release about his "Ol' Timey Back Home, Back Roads Barnstorm" of South Carolina, co-starring Danny Glover and Ben "Cooter" Jones. He'd make a better T-1000 than Robert Patrick: He just won't go down.

4. The others (2 percent)
But Kucinich and Gravel will never, ever drop out. I feel a little bad about Gravel.

South Carolina

1. John McCain (29 percent)
Eight years after getting skunked by George W. Bush in a campaign that's been mythologized everywhere from National Review to Vanity Fair, he'll get his comeback story. He's spent the longest time wiring the state and the weather is good in areas with big clumps of current/ex-military votes. One thing I'll be watching, even though it won't be relevant, is the vote total. McCain won about 231,000 votes in 2000 while losing the election by 12 points.

2. Mike Huckabee (25 percent)

Enough to keep him grinding on into the Southern primaries. He'll make a big play for the Fred! vote after the big guy drops out.

3. Mitt Romney (17 percent)
The bronze! The bronze! *Cue the National Anthem*

4. Fred Thompson (16 percent)
The most humiliating, false-starting campaign since Phil Gramm '96 will come to an end. Doubling down in this state is one of the few things Thompson didn't do wrong, but it's too late. It'll be good for McCain, though: After he drops out Fred will probably endorse him and bolster him in Florida and the Feb. 5 states.

5. Ron Paul (7 percent)
At least he'll beat Rudy again.

6. Rudy Giuliani (5 percent)
Four months ago he was leading in the polls.

7. Duncan Hunter (1 percent)
I think this is the last time I'll even bother predicting.

UPDATE 1:20: Romney's won Nevada. With basically nothing counted, Paul is running in the top four.

UPDATE 1:29: OK, I may have blown this call. The entrance poll has Paul running a very strong second with about 19 percent of the vote.

UPDATE 7:00: I want to share this email I got from a very optimistic, very happy Vijay Boyapati. (The e-mail was titled "It's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes" and he got happy after he sent it.)

So taking Stalin's epigram to heart, I decided to volunteer to be one of the folks overseeing the caucus vote in one of Clark County's districts.

The vote was, at least in my district, done in a completely open manner. The Republican party volunteer handling the vote count had people from each campaign sit around a table and directly observe each ballot as it was counted for each precinct. We each tallied the precincts to arrive at a final total. Any discrepancies between counts for each precinct resulted in a recount that everyone was able to observe.

Here are the totals for my district:

Votes:

Romney: 184
Paul: 104
McCain: 70
Huckabee: 38
Thompson 34
Giuliani: 31
Hunter: 8

Speaking with other Paul volunteers across Clark county reflected that we had a strong second place in a number of large districts. Based on my observations I'd be very surprised if we don't come in with second in Nevada. I'll be extremely suspicious if McCain beats, or even comes in a close 3rd.

UPDATE 7:50: The friends I'm watching with are convinced Romney's delegate rack-up will help him eventually win at the convention. I don't think so. If Thompson goes out, he endorses McCain. If Rudy goes out, he endorses McCain.

UPDATE 9:00: Duncan Hunter dropped out tonight, finally justifying one of my predictions. Thompson seems intent to stagger on and play wingman for John McCain against Mike Huckabee, although sounding ever more obvious when he does so.

UPDATE 9:08: The Ron Paul Forums sound pretty jazzed about Nevada, although I see Romney has probably won every county in the state. (WRONG: He's won Nye County. Add that to Jefferson Co, Iowa, and thus far he has won two.)

UPDATE 9:21: McCain wins South Carolina in a squeaker. Turnout is way, way down from 2000, when McCain lost while winning 240,000 votes.

UPDATE 9:46: Steve Gordon has a screenshot that's going to harsh the mellow among Paul fans…

NEXT: Watch Me Crank Dat Laz-E-Boy

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. Thus far, it seems Ron Paul is in second place in Nevada, just behind Romney. RP has 22%.

  2. I love how all the news outlets are saying “No Republican has won the nomination without winning SC since 1980.”

    True, but there have only been 3 contested Republican primary seasons since 1980 (88, 96, 00), so it’s not like there’s a huge sample size.

  3. If Paul comes in second with close to 1/4 of the vote, how does that get reported?

    The biggest story of the week?

    Just shows that Nevada isn’t a real contest, like Wyoming?

    “X” couldn’t even beat Ron Paul?

    Figures, with all the gamblers and prostitutes?

    Ron Paul is alive in the interior west?

  4. Hey, thanks Reason for putting this open thread up. For us political junkies, it’s like a continuous intravenous vodka shot for an alcoholic, all day long.

    My prediction:

    Romney beats Ron Paul. The media is playing this up like SC is more meaningful. It’s not, especially for libertarians. SC is the sideshow. A fiscally liberal/socially conservative statist versus the boring old guy.

    Nevada is Clash of the Libertarian-leaning Titans. You’ve got Populist libertarian Ron Paul versus Fiscal Con Mitt Romney.

    Romney wins over Paul in a squeeker. And you can quote me on that.

  5. If Paul comes in second with close to 1/4 of the vote, how does that get reported?

    I dunno, but it confirms something I have been trying to report: That Paul organizers think they can surprise in these small, ignored Western states and Alaska. If Paul decides to stay in the GOP race and rack up delegates he could do rather well.

  6. That’s weird: the CNN exit polls break down by religion, with categories Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, and “other Christian”. Ron Paul cleans up with 34% of the other Christians.

    Has he been targetting Nevada’s Eastern Orthodox population or something?

  7. I actually think (regardless of who Thompson endorses) that Thompson’s votes will go to Romney. Thompson’s support is from strict conservatives (especially fiscal ones) and Romney is their second pick.

    If the economy goes as bad as I think it will, Romney will win the nomination for Republicans.

    If there is a terrorist attack, McCain would probably win.

    Clinton will probably win for the Democrats, in which case I will definitely vote Republican regardless of who the Republicans pick.

  8. Dondero,

    How is Romney more Fiscal Con than Paul? Oh yeah, I forgot, you have to be terrified of Islamofascists to be a Fiscal Con.

  9. The NBC exit poll has Paul even higher.

  10. Wow, you forgot to mention those racist newsletters. Slacking a little, aren’t you?

    Regarding the terrible, terrible damage Paul is going to the libertarian cause, I like this response:

    Writes Jim Smith: “The respectable libertarians are apparently concerned that Ron Paul has been a terrible distraction in the fight for liberty. Well. As one personal observation: The universe of our 20-year-old college student son, and of his group of friends, has suddenly expanded from an orbit of girls and sports to include discussions of foreign policy, the Fed and the role of the federal government in their lives. While they all have Ron Paul bumper stickers on their cars, I can guarantee you that none of them has ever heard of Reason or Cato.”

  11. crimethink —

    LOL at the orthodox vote…I’ve met more than a handful of *Christians* who are confused about what being a Protestant means and who is included in that designation. I suspect that the press is no less sloppy about its sectarian labeling.

  12. If Ron Paul can’t win in Nevada, you gotta ask yourself where can he win?

    Yes, there’s still Alaska. But I know AK politics well. It’s more Moderate Establishment/Pro-Military Republican. It’s a natural base for John McCain.

    Nevada is it for Paul. If he loses today to Romney, it’s over for his GOP run.

    His supporters bragged about how they were going to “kick ass” in Wyoming. 0 – Delegates for Ron Paul.

    Then it was, “We’re going to take New Hampshire.” He ended up with 9.7%, not even getting into double digits.

    Today is his last stand. There’s no other Ron Paul-friendly states left (save possibly AK), after this.

    Certainly NOT Florida where he consistently polls 2 to 3%. And California’s no better for Paul. He’s always in the 3% range in Cali.

    What? Ohio? PA? New Jersey?

    Hell, Ron Paul doesn’t even have support here in Texas. He placed a distant 3rd in the TX GOP straw poll.

    It’s Nevada do or die today for Ron Paul.

    And only a 1st place or close 2nd will do it for him.

  13. Maybe there are a lot of Jains in Reno?

    I don’t get the “Fiscal Con” Romney bit, Eric.

    “Economic Conservative,” sure, because he’s a big corporate guy. When asked about economic development in the gubenatorial race, he said “I can walk into the office of any CEO in America and…,” but I haven’t the foggiest idea why you keep singling him out as a fiscal conservative.

  14. Crimethink, let’s not forget about Paul’s little – ahem – problem with Pork for his District? Did you forget that little Paul problem? He’s not quite the Fiscal Con that some believe.

    Paul supports spending cuts for sure. But 9 times out of 10 it’s only for Military spending.

  15. crimethink

    Didn’t you know that fiscal conservatism means having the government force people to do business with a cartel of insurance companies, and having the government take money from people who are good businessmen and give it to people who are bad businessmen?

    It’s a recent change – happened on 9/11/2001. There was a memo I believe…

    Did you get the memo? Would you like Eric to send you a copy?

  16. David, 3rd place finish for Paul doesn’t cut it. That’ll be an embarrassment for him. His people have banked everything on Nevada. They’ve put all their eggs in one basket.

    He’s got to beat Romney here.

    I’ll cut him a bit of slack. If he comes in a close second to Romney, than that will give him some bragging rights.

    But anything more than 4 to 5 points down from Romney, ain’t good enough.

    If he can’t win in Nevada where in the hell can he win?

    (And don’t tell me Alaska. AK is just like Wyoming, and look how Paul did there.)

  17. MSNBC just had an exit poll up, and it said 63% of independents went for Paul. I think that’s the biggest independent chunk any candidate has gotten thus far.

  18. Ha ha!

    Tweety talks about how Ron Paul won 63% of independents, calls him a libertarian, “like Ross Perot.”

  19. He could do well in Alabama.

    I read once that his website received a lot of traffic from Alabaman IP addresses. And remember LaRouche once got 20% of vote there in a Democratic primary.

  20. Eric begins his comment. “He’d better come in second!”

    MDNBC projections come up.

    “Uhhhhh….he’d better come within 4-5 points!”

  21. hey reason, does this mean your smear campaign against Paul is over? You still stink.

  22. My prediction: When we look back at this a few months from now, we’ll see that Paul’s result in Nevada will be his high water mark for the entire campaign (maybe with the exception of Alaska?)

    I don’t see him polling any better in any other State than Nevada, which is tailor made for him from every imaginable aspect: lots of conspiratorialists in Nevada, tax protestors, gambling, brothels, goldbugs, Western gun-toters. It’s Ron Paul heaven.

    If Paul can’t pull a high vote total here, at least in the 40s or even mid to upper 30s – strong second place finish against Romney, he can’t make it anywhere.

    Anything less than low 30s for Paul is a defeat. Anything in the low 20s is an utter disaster. And adds fuel to the fire that the Newsletter scandal really has had an effect.

  23. And I thought the surprise racist vote was going to have Paul doing well in South Carolina. I didn’t know there were so many racists in Nevada, too! That Don Black endorsement continues to pay dividends.

  24. Joe, where are you getting those numbers? Can you please post some solid numbers for Nevada here? Thanks.

  25. Colin,

    I thought Alabama was die-hard Huckabee country.

  26. Eric, I don’t think that’s true. While less than 1% of the vote is in so far, only Romney has above 15% of the vote. If this holds, it’s less important on what overall percentage he gets than what percentage he does above 3rd and 4th place.

  27. Hunter is beating Giuliani!

  28. Oh my Gosh! Romney has just won!!!!!!!!!!!

    Politico.com has this headline:

    Romney wins Nevada as Saturday showdown begins

    With very scant results, apparently they called if for Mitt. Has Mitt at 41%, Ron Paul at 15%.

  29. Exit polls indicate that Paul is going to be second, as Gene indicates above.

  30. Eric, these announcements are based on exit polls not real counts. The exit polls (see first comment by Gene) puts Paul at lower twenties.

  31. Adamness, Politico.com has a big headling up saying Romney has won. I don’t think they would have called it, if they didn’t have hard numbers.

    If true, A FANTASTIC DAY FOR MAINSTREAM LIBERTARIANS AND FISCAL CONSERVATIVES!!!

    Who gives a flying f*ck about SC’s primary: Huckabee vs. boring ass McCain. Ho-hum.

    This one was far more important.

    Thanks Nevada! You all Rock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. Aside from the Ron Paul business, is it just me, or is Giuliani running the dumbest campaign in this entire election?

  33. Okay, okay guys I hear ya! I’ll wait another few minutes for the firm call from CNN or Fox. But Politico.com is calling this race.

    Gonna go on over to Race42008.com and check. Be back in a few…

  34. Oh my Gosh! Romney has just won!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jesus Christ. What a dork.

  35. Be back in a few…

    Hand lotion is under the sink, kleenex is on top of the toilet.

  36. This has got to be a fake Dondero. I hate Dondero and everyone knows it, but not even I think that Eric is this much of a dork.

  37. Eric,

    I have Chris Matthews yammering in the background.

    That’s some funny sh*t right there. Did you know Ross Perot was a libertarian?

  38. Minutes ago from Fox News:

    Early returns showed him taking 46 percent in the state, followed by Ron Paul and John McCain with 15 percent each, Mike Huckabee with 9 percent, Fred Thompson with 10 percent and Rudy Giuliani with 3 percent.

    Also ABC News is reporting Romney as the Winner.

  39. Eric,

    How is a candidate that believes in government-controlled healthcare and economic micro-management good for libertarians? Everybody on the Republican side save Huckabee is better than Romney on economics. McCain remains the only one of the top 3 that won’t give us universal health care.

    I just can’t believe the s*** that comes out of your mouth sometimes.

  40. Dondero, have you officially covenanted with Romney yet? Or are you still clinging to hope for Rudy? Because Mitt extending his delegate lead is bad news for Hizzoner.

  41. Oh my Gosh! Romney has just won!!!!!!!!!!!

    I would like to remind everybody that I totally didn’t do that when John Kerry won his primaries.

  42. This is important. ABC News exit polling suggest:

    Romney won broad support among Nevada’s Republican voters, according to preliminary entrance poll result analysis by ABC News.

    That means Romney won among all camps: evangelicals, moderates and fiscal and defense conservatives.

  43. The exit polls (see first comment by Gene) puts Paul at lower twenties.

    Which is exactly why Dondero said lower 20s would be a disaster, after having previously said 3rd place would be the end of Paul. He’s such a clown.

  44. Guys this is your weekly reminder that Dondero is a brown-nosing political hack and he’s just trying to make it look like he’s been on the winner-du-jour’s side the entire time.

  45. If Fiscal Con Romney won Nevada, then which Romney won Michigan?

    Dude doesn’t just LOOK like a Ken doll.

  46. Crimethink, I know. You are 100% correct. I am still where I’ve been since last August, a firm “Romnathompsiani” supporter.

    But things don’t look good for Fred or Rudy. So, I’m urging all Economic Conservatives to unite behind one single candidate, particularly Post-Florida.

    My worst nightmare: Rudy backs McCain after losing Florida over Romney. I think that will really hurt the Fiscal Con cause.

    2nd worst nightmare: Fred endorses McCain tomorrow after the SC primary.

    I’d like to see both Fred and Rudy united behind Mitt.

  47. Without his robot Mormon voters Romney would have been toast today, Eric.

  48. Malubu Romney. Romney Dream House. Fiscal Con Romney. Adventure Romney. Pro-Life Romney. Health Care Romney.

  49. Guys, Bingo is a lying sack of shit who obviously doesn’t read my Blog Libertarian Republican nor my website Mainstream Libertarians. Both are highly public sites with hundreds of visitors a day. Anyone can go back and check the archives and see where Bingo is completely wrong on this.

  50. Okay, enough of the jabbering. David Wiegel put this Open Thread up to discuss the results, not philosophy or issues.

    Anyone have any more latest results to report?

    Is Romney still at mid-40s?

    Where’s Ron Paul at now?

  51. Exactly Fluffy.

    We’re really seeing identity politics in action here. Huckabee wins because of the evangelicals, Romney wins because of the Mormons. The flock will always vote for one of their own, no matter what their stance on the issues may be.

  52. Malubu Romney. Romney Dream House. Fiscal Con Romney. Adventure Romney. Pro-Life Romney. Health Care Romney.

    Joe, that would make a great negative ad for the Democratic nominee if Romney gets the nod.

  53. Dondero, you were pushing really hard for Giuliani most of last year. You didn’t start wavering to Thompson and Romney till Huckabee started surging at year’s end.

    I’m not going by your blog, cause I don’t enjoy reading tripe, I’m going by what you’ve written here.

  54. Still waiting to here you square your support for Romney with Romney’s Hillarycare health insurance schemes, Eric.

    All that time you stood in the snow to collect signatures, and now you back a socialist health care scheme?

    For shame.

  55. Yikes, how embarrassing. I’m waiting to HEAR you square those opposites, Eric.

  56. David Wiegel put this Open Thread up to discuss the results, not philosophy or issues.

    It’s a good idea to avoid discussing the issues if you back a slimeball like Romney. Whereas, Rudy and Fred can’t even point to results.

  57. That’s your problem Crimethink. If you don’t wish to read my Blog, than screw you.

    All the facts are up there for all to see.

  58. Again, enough of the jibber-jabber. Anyone else have any solid numbers out of Nevada to report?

    Last I heard Paul was in the 15% range. Someone else reported 22%. Which is correct?

  59. Google is cool. Guess who once proposed Rudy running on the LP ticket?

    http://libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com/2007/06/rudy-giuliani-libertarian-for-president.html

  60. There have been few things as enjoyable as seeing Giu911ani getting crushed so thoroughly, man what a retard.

  61. I didn’t dive into the sewers of the archives, Dondero, but you have seemed to jump on the Freeper bandwagon of saying Obama is secretly some kind of radical Muslim. Classy.

  62. Guys, Bingo is a lying sack of shit who obviously doesn’t read my Blog Libertarian Republican nor my website Mainstream Libertarians. Both are highly public sites with hundreds of visitors a day. Anyone can go back and check the archives and see where Bingo is completely wrong on this.

    1. I’m not going to read your fucking blogs, the website design sucks and they read like a political version of a 3rd grader’s essay on “Why I like Santa Claus so much”

    2. “highly public” what does that mean? Everything on the internet is highly public. Whats more telling is that “hundreds of vistors per day” is jack shit in the internet world, especially considering how much you spam that link.

    3. You’ve endorsed Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain (on the grounds of “at least he’s not Huckabee!”). So yes, you are a brown-nosing political hack that wants to be seen as supporting the winner.

  63. Both Fox News and Politico.com are reporting McCain and Paul tied for 2nd with 15% each.

    Romney romping with 44%.

    As far as I know this is the biggest victory yet for any GOP candidate in any of the primaries. Right?

  64. Lord knows I don’t want to defend Romney and Dondero, but it wasn’t “his” health care plan in Massachusetts.

    It was a compromise plan, mostly the Speaker of the House’s plan, as negotiated with Ted Kennedy and the Senate President. Romney just filed off some rough edges.

  65. You’re kidding me – Eric buys into the secret Muslim Obama conspiracy theory?

    That is so fucking typical, man.

    I will have to add that to my list of links to Eric’s greatest hits.

  66. Eric, this isn’t very hard to understand. The 22% number comes from exit polls and not actual votes.

  67. I’ve endorsed John McCain? Really? Where? Show me some link? Show me some sort of post of mine, where I endorse John McCain for President.

    Sure, I respect the guy’s Military Service. But that’s about it.

    The ONLY way I’d vote for McCain is if he picked a Sarah Palin or a JC Watts or a Butch Otter or a Mark Sanford as his running mate.

    My endorsements:

    1. Rudy Giuliani

    2. Mitt Romney

    3. Fred Thompson

    4. Wayne Allyn Root

  68. Again, enough of the jibber-jabber. Anyone else have any solid numbers out of Nevada to report?

    I was down 85 bucks, so I went to bed.

    I can deduct that, right?

  69. OK, so Romney’s in first and Paul’s in second.

    What place did Saddam Hussein’s secret Oklahoma City bomber come in, Eric?

    How about secret Muslim Obama? Is his running in this one?

  70. Dondero, you seem to be a Republican who lacks the intellectual integrity of a Libertarian…in other words a Republican and if the past 7 years are any indication a total Zero.

  71. No, its real fluffy. Read it hier.

    Clearly, Marxist Muslim Madrassa-attending Barack HUSSEIN Obama’s win on the Democrat side. This is scary for our Nation, really, really scary. Think Manchurian candidate you all.

    Not that Hillary is much better. But at least she’s a Real American Gal. Mis-guided yes. But she doesn’t scare ya, like the prospects of an Obama Presidency. With Hillary, at least the entire Right is united against her. With Obama, we’re all likely to be shuffled off into political correctness re-education camps and all of our wealth confiscated.

  72. Ali, I guess we got to go with the hard numbers coming from Fox and Politico.com. I’m escaping for a few minutes to check some more sites.

    Race42008.com is always the best.

    Be back shortly…

  73. Eric,

    Last I heard Paul was in the 15% range. Someone else reported 22%. Which is correct?

    15% is the figure from the reporting precincts, 22% is from the exit polls.

  74. 1. Rudy Giuliani

    2. Mitt Romney

    3. Fred Thompson

    4. Wayne Allyn Root

    Geez…can’t believe your endorsements haven’t tilted the race more…

  75. Whatever, Rittberg…

  76. Think Manchurian candidate you all.

    Here are my Manchurian candidates: Clinton, Rudy, Mitt (yes, Mitt).

  77. Clearly, Marxist Muslim Madrassa-attending Barack HUSSEIN Obama’s win on the Democrat side. This is scary for our Nation, really, really scary. Think Manchurian candidate you all.

    Eric, that’s fucking deplorable. Lemme guess, you also think that your Ken Doll’s ACTUAL religion has no place in respectable discourse.

  78. I’m still trying to figure out how one can be a Marxist and Muslim at the same time, given that materialistic atheism is a requirement to be a Marxist. Did you sleep through Political Theory 107 in college Dondi?

  79. Eric threw Giuliani under the bus after Iowa; since then he’s been looking for a new patron in McCain or Romney.

    I would think Romney would be the logical choice: he’s rich, his political connections seem to be in urban areas etc.

    Thus he and Eric have alot to offer to each other. Eric can keep repeating false propaganda to the effect that Taunton has historically been a part of Minehead and that Romney is fiscally conservative, and possibly convince the Freepers and the Redstaters that they are true, and Eric can continue to get cushy civil service jobs like working on the draft board.

  80. Oh, and I’d throw in McCain as a Manchurian Candidate as well.

  81. Noticed on the county maps that Romney is slaying in the counties bordering Utah. I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement of his libertarianism.

  82. Ali: What about Huckabee?

  83. Enough for me. I’m off to watch the UFC pay-per-view at my local sports bar. Let’s hope Paul comes in second! White power! (Just kidding about that last part, oh reporters who will be googling my every utterance 30 years from now)

  84. Ali: What about Huckabee?

    He does not fit my notion of a Manchurian candidate. Huck is a simply a Christian populist.

  85. I’m back. Here are the latest hard numbers from CNN:

    Romney was cruising with 45 percent of the vote early on, but a dogfight was on for second place.

    Sen. John McCain had 16 percent of the early vote, Rep. Ron Paul had 15 percent, and former Sen. Fred Thompson had 11 percent.

  86. Dondero is a weasel. He only posts here to tweak real libertarians. Since his daddy, Ron Paul rejected him he’s been clamoring for attention.

    Here’s a hint Dondero, Mittens switches sides more often than a sex crazed bisexual. You can’t trust what he’ll do. Besides, believing in magic underwear is a sure sign of insanity.

  87. Cesar | January 19, 2008, 2:32pm | #

    I’m still trying to figure out how one can be a Marxist and Muslim at the same time, given that materialistic atheism is a requirement to be a Marxist.

    Dammit, Cesar, now he’s going to tell us!

  88. Eric, we know how to use the internets, you know.

  89. McCain has exactly 5 more votes than Ron Paul right now, according to Politico’s live results. With only 3.95% of the results in I wouldn’t get to worried yet about McCain.

  90. “Think Manchurian candidate you all.”

    Well Mitt’s daddy was brainwashed, so it probably runs in the family.

  91. Sorry, delegates, not votes.

  92. I just thought of something. If Nevada reports early in the day, all over CNN, Fox, Politico, ect… won’t that effect the SC race which is open til 7:00 pm est. tonight?

    Wonder if there will be a Pro-Romney shift among South Carolinians throughout the day, now that he’s won back-to-back Michigan and Nevada wins?

  93. A comment from tarran’s Monty Python link:

    USA can’t afford to lose its best ally in the world. If you declare war with the USA, all of the countries in Euorpe will declare war on the two countries. It is sucide for america to enter such a useless effort against England.

    Eric, you’re not the dumbest person on the internet. Rejoice!

  94. Still 0% reporting in Washoe County…

  95. Here’s a hint Spike:

    William Weld, the very man who practically put the term Libertarian Republican on the map in the early 1990s, is not only a Romney backer, but he campaigns with him often.

    If Romney is good enough for self-described “Hayekian Bill Weld” he’s damn sure good enough for me, and worthy of broad libertarian support.

  96. Hey Eric, is it Islamofascist now or has it changed to Islamomarxist?

  97. All your candidate belong to us.

  98. Dondero,

    Washoe Co is a Nevada’s 2nd largest county, and Ron Paul country through and through, and there are less than 100 votes counted so far from there. So, we’ll see.

    I wonder if those counties next to the Utah border were checking for proof of NV residency. I’m guessing not.

  99. Dondero:

    Have you actually lived in Alaska? Besides spending your time in the cold (Alaskans don’t consider 10 degrees cold) waving signs, how long have you spent in the state.

    Just wondering because I live in Alaska and Ron Paul will do extremely well and has a very good chance of winning.

  100. Also, Romney had 69% of the vote in White Pine Co, which is almost fully reported now.

  101. There are still lots of Mormons near Utah, I mean they are a political force there.

    See Harry Reid.

  102. Oh my Gosh! Romney has just won!!!!!!!!!!

    Does anyone else get a serious Stimpy vibe here?

  103. Here are my Manchurian candidates: Clinton, Rudy, Mitt (yes, Mitt).

    I thought Mitt! was the Stepford candidate.

  104. Besides, believing in magic underwear is a sure sign of insanity.

    Not to defend Ken Doll Mitt, but all the other candidates in the race believe in the resurrection of the dead, which is just as insane as believing in magic underwear IMHO.

  105. Yes, Eric, Romney the Establishment Mormon from the Northeast is totally going to surge in SC.

    Good call man, its clear why you have done so well for yourself in the political jungle.

  106. William Weld? The guy who lost to that moron John frickin’ Faso in the NY-GOP gubernatorial primary last year? That dude’s a loser if ever there was one.

  107. I just thought of something. If Nevada reports early in the day, all over CNN, Fox, Politico, ect… won’t that effect the SC race which is open til 7:00 pm est. tonight?

    Wonder if there will be a Pro-Romney shift among South Carolinians throughout the day, now that he’s won back-to-back Michigan and Nevada wins?

    Wow, this is actually a cogent thought and a plausible hypothesis. An acorn, indeed.

  108. Agreed, Bingo. The South is an island unto itself these days. I don’t think they’re going to care what people in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and – what’s Las Vegas’s nickname again? Oh yeah – Sin City think.

  109. Eric Dondero is full of BS!:

    He’s not quite the Fiscal Con that some believe….Paul supports spending cuts for sure. But 9 times out of 10 it’s only for Military spending.

    What nonsense! Of the 435 house members, only 2 have voted to spend less of our tax money than Ron Paul:

    http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=117

    You can’t compile a stellar record like that by only voting to cut military spending 90% of the time. It’s not possible!

    Eric Dondero, you shouldn’t be calling yourself a “libertarian” or a “conservative”. You don’t appear to understand even the rudiments.

  110. Bingo, that’s why they invented Vice-Presidential picks. It’s a concept called “balancing the ticket.” But you being a college Poli Sco drop-out ya probably just can’t get your brain around such a concept.

  111. Just wondering because I live in Alaska and Ron Paul will do extremely well and has a very good chance of winning.

    I lived there, and my sense of the political landscape is people who want to be left alone. Now who’s the candidate that fits that in a nutshell…here’s a hint, it rhymes with Ron Paul.

  112. crimethink | January 19, 2008, 2:45pm | #

    William Weld? The guy who lost to that moron John frickin’ Faso in the NY-GOP gubernatorial primary last year? That dude’s a loser if ever there was one.

    AND YET his record of being able to win elections is indistinguishable from Romney’s. Won a Massachusetts governor’s race, lost another statewide race.

  113. Eric, I wouldn’t be dissing anybody for their poli sci knowledge when you’re the one who thinks its possible to be religious and a Marxist at the same time!

  114. Also the fact that Eric endorsed Giuliani as the clear choice for libertarians… lol

  115. Eric,

    I’ve heard of the concept, and I know it works. Still, anyone who votes for a presidential candidate because of who his VP is is an idiot. How much difference to McCain’s presidency do you think it would make if Sanford was his running mate?

  116. Jesus Christ. What a dork.

    First I took this literally, and thought, well that’s kind of unfair. I mean, I guess you could call him something of a Torah dork…maybe a little God-geeky. But not more generally.

    Then I realized that it was referring to Dondero, and everything became clear.

  117. Keith I lived in Alaska for two months in 2006 – outskirts of Anchorage. Have family that live north of Wasila on that huge Lake.

  118. As opposed to, say, Mike Huckabee as his running mate, that is?

  119. Holy shit Dondero, you’re not just a moronic, ass-kissing-power-hungry-wanna-be — you’re also a big fucking tool.

  120. Eric, you are something else. I wish you’d post more because your posts are always unintentionally hilarious.

  121. “Clearly, Marxist Muslim Madrassa-attending Barack HUSSEIN Obama’s win on the Democrat side. This is scary for our Nation, really, really scary.”

    Trying to figure out Dondero is like trying to figure out Hannity or Coulter, there is no need, they are not operating from any ideolgical base or intellectual integrity, they are just dicks…thats all you need to know.

  122. Hey Bingo, you’re so quick to diss me, but let’s talk about whom you might be supporting?

    Still in that Ron Paul camp?

    Or is it that jolly ole’ George Phillies?

    Or maybe the Marijuana guy Steve Kubby?

    If Paul, are you happy with his 2nd place tie 15% showing today?

  123. DONDERRRROOOOOOOO how is it possible to be a radical Muslim and Marxist at the same time?

  124. Dondero, we know you’re still sore about your daddy, Ron Paul rejecting you. Its ok. Go ahead, take your blankey and suck your thumb. You’ll feel much better.

    I could give a rat’s ass about Weld. He’s a Washington insider. He has libertarian rhetoric, but that’s about it. He’s George W’s towel boy also, need we say more?

  125. Eric is, in fact, descended from harp seals.

  126. No surprise that Romney won both Wyoming and Nevada, the states with the third- and fourth-highest percentage of LDS members according to this (somewhat outdated) link

    I predict Romney sweeps the Mountain West, with Ron Paul also doing quite well throughout the region, with this caveat:

    The big question is whether McCain or Romney wins Arizona — lots of LDS (fifth-highest percentage of LDS members), but McCain’s home state.

  127. Eric:

    Just go away with your pathetic attempt to discredit anything Ron Paul does.

    Mitt Romney is a fucking weasel and changes his opinion to fit whichever state he is campaining in. His fiscally conservative policies told Michigan voters he would cough up money from the federal coffer to bring back auto worker jobs.

    “I will make a five-fold increase – from $4 billion to $20 billion – in our national investment in energy research, fuel technology, materials science, and automotive technology.” Mitt Romney

    Mr. Pandering could have Murray Rothbard’s freaking endorsement and still wouldn’t make him Libertarian.

  128. Eric is, in fact, descended from harp seals.

    Joe, thats deplorable.

    Apologize to the harp seals now.

  129. Dude’s grandparents live in a lake in Alaska. Whaddya want from me?

  130. In the 1950s the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood fought the communists to death. The state (Nasser) fought both to death. Nasser was a nationalist socialist, but neither a marxist nor an Islamist.

    Back to the vote.

  131. Hey Spike, or should I really call you Jake?

    Who you supporting? Are you a Ron Paul guy Jake… oops I meant to say “Spike.”

    If so, you happy today with Paul’s “whopping” 15% showing?

  132. Dondero reminds me of this Republican jackass I worked with at the Minnesota capitol…he would sit in his corner at his desk and listen to Limbaugh and Hannity and listen to a cd of patriot songs on his headphones…on his lunch break he would read from the Bible. He was a total tool, so socially awkward and everybody hated him…probably went home and created a blog.

  133. Prolfeed, I guess you didn’t read the CNN quote:

    Romney won “broad-based support” in Nevada according to the Exit Polls. Go to CNN.com and read the article for yourself.

  134. Hey guys! I have no principles! If he wins and lets me be his personal ball-washer, I’ll support him to the end!

    He was also endorsed by libertarian (person that you have never heard of) and (second person you have never heard of).

    Oh yeah! 9/11! Islamofascism! BOOGAH BOOGAH!

  135. Dondero thinks everyone chooses who to support by whether they’re winning right now. How adorable.

  136. We have never supported Giuliani, we have always supported Romney. Repeat: we have never supported Giuliani, we have always supported Romney.

    All readers who believe otherwise, report to our blog to read how we stood in the cold handing out pamphlets twenty years ago making us the arbiter of libertarian-ness for all time to come. Read how we solicited hookers in a very libertarian fashion until you come to love Big Dondero.

  137. “Joe, thats deplorable.

    Apologize to the harp seals now.”

    I laughed pretty hard at this one. It’s almost too easy to make fun of Dondero. The guy has turned into a caricature of himself.

  138. prolefeed, I wouldn’t read too much into Wyoming. That caucus system is the most ridiculous nominating contest I’ve ever seen. Being a registered voter doesn’t allow you to vote.

    Ditto Nevada. He’s the only candidate other than Paul who really made an effort.

    I think McCain will be right there with Governor Goodhair throughout the interior west, with Paul polling third and fourth.

  139. Dondero, Call me Ishmael. oooops, I meant to say GFY.

  140. Hey Keith, buddy, friend, give me some truth there… Let’s have a bit of honesty between friends now okay?

    Come closer for a sec Keith.

    Ya happy with Ron Paul’s whopping 15% showing today in Nevada?

    Help me out here. I mean, I’ve always heard that Nevada was the “most libertarian” State in the Nation, next to Wyoming and New Hampshire of course.

    Yet ole’ Ron Paul failed to get into double digits in WY or NH, placing 5th, and now here in Nevada, despite spending mucho bucks, he’s got 15%.

    Fair to say you’ll be popping open the champagn glasses tonight with the ole’ wifey over Paul’s glorious Nevada victory?

  141. Rittberg is right about a lot of things Alaska. There are two parts of the establishment there. There is leave me along and there is military. Despite McCain’s poor 2nd amendment record, I would put more than a few people in his camp. Remember, this is the state that takes the greatest influx of federal money per person despite the outward attitude (although much of that is thanks to the corrupt Don Young and Ted Stevens).

    However, if Ron Paul started running ads talking about guns and his 2nd amendment commitment compared to the other candidates, he would get more than 50% of the vote there. Seriously on that.

  142. I always support the candidates that win, and when they don’t, I just change candidates! LOL I’m such a tool.

  143. I’m starting to hope for a brokered convention, with Paul having just enough delegates to be the kingmaker. That way presumably we can keep old Huckabuck locked out. And it would be delicious to see the mainstream Republicans one-upping each other on the fiscal conservatism.

  144. To be honest, Paul has 12% right now, 2 lousy stinking votes (I mistakenly corrected myself earlier to say delegates) behind McCain. I don’t know who wouldn’t be happy with a second place showing by Paul in Nevada.

    Hell, it might even influence the late primary voters in South Carolina!

  145. CRW, if they have a brokered convention they will nominate GENERAL PATREUS!.

  146. Finally something all libertarians can agree on – Dondero is a horse’s ass!

  147. Winning is for losers. I’ve never won anything in my life. Thus, I’m a winner.

  148. Foxhunter,

    Too bad the morons in his campaign staff will probably run all anti-immigration ads in AK. Gotta keep those Canucks and Chuckchis from sneaking over the border.

  149. Eric:

    For what it’s worth, I’ll decide when election day comes. If Paul runs third party, I’ll throw a protest vote his way. If its Huckabee vs. Obama, I’ll vote for Obama, just because the Big Government Evangelical wing of the Republican party needs to fuck off and die.

    Outside of those scenarios, I’ll probably not vote at all because none of the candidates represent the ideals that America was founded on.

  150. Wuzzup? I’m confused. Why the silence here from the likes of Crimethink, Jake, Fluffy and the set?

    Again, who are you all supporting?

    What’s the matter? All backing away from Ron Paul now?

    Don’t let that little Newsletters scandal scare you off. Don’t let Ron Paul’s run of 4th and 5th place showings in less than double digits, run you away. Don’t let his “eggs in one basket, becomes broken eggs in a basket” aka “We Will Win Nevada” strategy cause you to doubt your man Ron.

    Step up to the plate. Have the courage of y’all’s convictions.

    Let’s hear it Crimethink? Fluffy you too. Spike. Where’s that rascal Thoreau?

    I want to hear you say on the Reason H&R Blog:

    “I Still Support Ron Paul for President”

    Say it loud and clear.

  151. Dondero spaketh thus:

    My endorsements:
    1. Rudy Giuliani
    2. Mitt Romney
    3. Fred Thompson
    4. Wayne Allyn Root

    Three of these things belong together
    Three of these things are kind of the same
    Can you guess which one of these doesn’t belong here?
    Now it’s time to play our game (time to play our game).

    One of these things is not like the others,
    One of these things just doesn’t belong,
    Can you tell which thing is not like the others
    By the time I finish my song?

    Did you guess which thing was not like the others?
    Did you guess which thing just doesn’t belong?
    If you guessed the fourth is not like the others,
    Then you’re absolutely…right!

  152. Dondero, you’re being serious, right?

  153. Oops, I should’ve included Bingo, as well.

    Let’s hear it Bingo. Ya still supporting “Da Man” Ron Paul?

  154. McCain is close! RP fans, lets get a posse together and make an example of a few of them.

  155. Giuliani will win! 9/11!

  156. See my post right above yours, Eric.

  157. Dondero, yes, I still support Ron Paul for president. Are you trying to say something?

  158. @ Sage:

    You are aboslutely correct about people wanting to be left alone. This is why Ron will do so well. All the others are a bunch of douchebags who want to intervene in every aspect of our lives.

    For instance ANWR is a big issue in Alaska and the majority of Alaskans want it to be opened up for drilling and despise other state reps. deciding that it should be left alone. It is a BIG issue in Alaska and Ron Paul has consistently stated it should be left up to the state to decide.

  159. Guys, I base my political support on whom I’m most attracted to at the time. Ron Paul was cute back in the day. Alas, he rejected my advances, so he can go to hell.

    I had a deep man crush for Mr. 9/11. Until, I saw his weak showing in several states. Recently Mitt caught my eye. After a few drinks, he looks like Reagan.

  160. Ron’s entrance polls will probably be higher than his final vote. RP supporters crowd around any pollster/reporter in sight.

  161. So Bingo has the guts to come forward and declare for a candidate.

    His choice?

    Barack Hussein Obama.

    The very man who managed to score a perfect 100% from the Marxist ADA.

    The man who one of his IL Senate colleagues said of, ” had a voting record just to the Left of Chairman Mao.”

    I guess you can still be a Communist/Fascist and still have some libertarian appeal, right?

  162. “Don’t let that little Newsletters scandal scare you off. Don’t let Ron Paul’s run of 4th and 5th place showings in less than double digits, run you away.”

    Kind of like how Giuliani’s run of showings behind Ron Paul caused you to hop on the Romney bandwagon?

    Dondero, you’re a tool and a hypocrite and you’ll never amount to more than that.

  163. Well, at this moment, CNN is reporting McCain leads Paul by a total of 2 votes:

    McCain 1,040 12%

    Paul 1,038 12%

  164. And if any of the other people you mentioned are not supporting him any more, it’s not because he’s doing badly in the polls. Don’t try to equate your craven support of whoever’s winning with other people withdrawing support because of the newsletter scandal.

  165. Eric Dondero | January 19, 2008, 3:04pm | #

    CRW, if they have a brokered convention they will nominate GENERAL PATREUS!.

    …who will fly his airplane to the convention and be welcomed with thunderous applause.

  166. Okay, Crimethink, we’ve at least got you on the record. Yes, I am trying to say something.

    Question?

    If Ron Paul can’t win in Nevada, just where can he win?

  167. The Paul showing in Nevada today is totally insignificant. We should all ignore it and act as if it were part of the CNN “pie-blank”. Only Guiliani is a true libertarian . . . I’m mainstream, I should know.
    Paul supporters should feel lousy about today’s dismal showing. They should give up. Paul is done – he will announce that he is pulling out of the race. He will retire to Texas in ignominy, and all of the fringe loons that supported him will be forced to vote for Guiliani – the only true libertarian.
    Never mind that Paul has bested him in every state thus far. That is meaningless. What matters is what mainstream people like me think . . .

  168. Actually, if he did illegal immigration in AK, then he would want to focus not on Canadians or Mexicans, but rather…

    …don’t laugh…

    …the Koreans and the Polynesians. They are by far the biggest immigrants to Alaska and some of them illegally.

  169. There’s more to life than winning, Eric. Some of us vote based on principle. My guess is you’re not really familiar with that concept since you don’t appear to have any principles.

  170. Dondero, I’m a Duncan Hunter fan. He reminds me of Ernest Borgnine.

  171. Yeah, thats exactly what I said.

  172. Dondero,

    That’s not my concern. I’m supporting him because I support his positions on the issues, and all the other GOP candidates are just about equally unacceptable.

  173. I am the genius of the libertarian community. I discern intentions and outcomes. Paul is finished. He is toast. It is time for moonbats everywhere to lament their total loss here. It is time for Paul to accept that he is an unprincipled racist fringe-type that has no record. He is bad for libertarianism. Paul=bad. He and his followers dont reallly know libertarianism. I know . . . I am mainstream.

  174. Eric, corporate tool Republicans like Romney went from winning the last contested Republican primary by a mile to squabbling with three other candidates this time.

    While libertarians have gone from winning 0% of the primary vote to 10% of the primary vote.

    Quit crowing about being born on third base and thinking you hit a triple.

  175. I still support Paul, despite the sad revelations. I like to see the big picture. The letters are a dark sport on an otherwise clean slate.

  176. They’ve still only counted about 40 votes from Washoe Co. (Reno). What the heck.

  177. Crimethink, why can’t you support General Patreus?

  178. If Dr Paul can make 2nd in Nevada (I’m still kinda dubious), he will have nicely exceeded most folks’ expectations.

    Note how Eric Dondero is desperately trying to raise the bar. Anyone check out FOX. Are hey squirming too or just ignoring it?

  179. Is Washoe where Paul is supposed to do well?

  180. Updated 2 minutes ago from CNN:

    19% reporting
    Romney 6,435 55%
    McCain 1,424 12%
    Paul 1,379 12%

  181. With 3% reporting, Obama leads with 64%, and Clinton at 28%. Edwards has 7%. It’s entirely likely this will hold, but who knows.

  182. Don’t forget, welchero, another classic Dundero line.

    “Back when I was a libertarian I stood out in the snow handing out literature. Now that I’m a neocon who never leaves the basement I’m more libertarian than you are because you weren’t in the snow with me back then. Even if you’re in the snow now, you weren’t back then. It doesn’t matter what I believe now, I did a lot back then when I beleived differently.”

  183. And just how is it I’m trying to “raise the bar” Rick?

    Again, simple question, if Ron Paul can’t win Nevada, where can he win?

    (Ok, ok, I’ll give you Alaska, he might have a shot there.)

  184. Wouldn’t a second place for Paul do well for him in Arizona vis-a-vis McCain?

  185. crimethink,

    They are delaying reporting RP’s glorious victory in Washoe…

  186. Ali: yes — exit polls put him in a solid second place there, way ahead of McCain.

  187. I am Welchero! I know mainstream! I know liberty! I love Guiliani! Kiss him!! Kiss him!! We need freedom, no matter the cost. We need liberty, no matter the price. We need mainstream candidates to represent libertarianism.

  188. Dondero, Please include Duncan Hunter results also. If you’re gonna cut n paste for us, at least do a competent job of it.

    So, why did Paul dump yer ass?

  189. Remember when it was a point of pride for military officers when people couldn’t tell what their politics were? Marshall, Ike, and Pershing…respectable men cease to act like partisans upon receiving a commission.

  190. “Again, simple question, if Ron Paul can’t win Nevada, where can he win?”

    Again Eric: There’s more to life than winning. Some of us vote based on principle. My guess is you’re not really familiar with that concept since you don’t appear to have any principles.

  191. Funny thing…the media treating Ron Paul JUST LIKE they did to Reagan in 1980.

    The Dark horse carrying the torch of LIGHT!

  192. I do support Gen. Petraeus, as a general. He’s shown himself quite competent in mitigating the damage caused by the foolish policy decisions of the civilian command.

    I have no idea where he stands on political issues, though I suspect he supports continuing the Iraq debacle, so I don’t support him as a politician.

  193. Welchero, you keep making a funy about Dondero, but by using the name “Welchero,” it looks like you’re saying Matt Welch is a Rudolph Guiliani supporter, which is pretty deluded.

  194. Aaargh! Yucky people! Paul=filth dog moonbat peril. Guiliani=tough mainstream ballls of effectiveness.

  195. Hey Derek, more to life than winning ‘eh?

    Well, that’s fine, but some of us are getting older. Maybe you’ve managed to escape the clock. But it’s ticking for the rest of us. I’m 45. Been in this movement for 25 years now. I’d like to win one for a change.

    You present me with a winner libertarian and I’ll back them.

    I’ll admit, you’ve got a good candidate in Wayne Root. Nominate him for the Libertarian Party, and you all could win some mainstream libertarians like me back to the fold.

    But Losertarians like Kubby or Phillies? Forget about it!

  196. And Eric, you can call me a poli-sci dropout (which isn’t true) but I would rather be that than an unprincipled ass-kissing lapdog begging for recognition and attention.

    At least I have a real job and real skills. It’s probably necessary for you to suck up to popular candidates, because thats the only way you’ll ever be hired.

    You are a professional brown-noser.

  197. Laughing at Ron Paul fans whose second choice is Duncan Hunter. How much more masochistic can you get?

  198. joe … the Dondero half is speaking now!! Be quiet! The Welch is sleeping!

  199. If you’re really for General Patreus, you would LET HIM WIN so we can take the fight to Iran next.

  200. I think the best comment was made by crw about having a broken convention and RP voters being made to break the tie. That’s what we here in Indiana are working on, getting the delegates to go because they are only bound on the 1st round of voting. Also, Indiana has a sizable ‘at-large’ voting block, which we are working on, too. I mean, Indiana isn’t going to go for RP, but we could have several delegates there who will vote for him after the first round.

  201. @ Eric:

    Keep bringing up Wyoming and realize what a moron you really are. The rules in Wyoming are just a tad different then Nevada.

    The Wyoming county conventions were NOT open to Republican voters. Eligible delegates consisted of only two groups: Republican party officials who were elected in 2006; and delegates who were appointed (by established precinct organizations) to fill empty delegate seats.

    Does that sound like the voters had a choice in the outcome?

    Living in Alaska for 2 months does count for shit.

    Hey, I drove though Montana on the way to Alaska does that count as having any idea where they stand politically? In your mind it might but not many others.

    As for the popping champagne with my wife comment, it is a hell of lot better than your champagne celebration for Guiliani’s impressive 2-5 percent showing in every state right?

    Oh I forgot, Mitt the robot is your man now.

    I still support Ron Paul and unlike you I have the integrity to stick with one candidate (not like some little kid who likes the Yankees when they are good and then switches to the Red Sox when they start winning World Series, even though they are bitter rivals).

  202. Derek, all I want in life is a US President who is generally conservative on economic matter, but centrist on social issues.

    Is that too much to ask for?

    We’ll never have a solid libertarian elected President. Not in our lifetimes.

    So, I’ll gladly settle for “libertarian lite.”

    You Sir, will die a very old and bitter man, having lost all your elections, but still clinging to your “principles.”

    Can see it now… you fumbling in an old folks home, talking to the other feeble old guys about how you “almost won it back in ’08 with Ron Paul.”

  203. “Well, that’s fine, but some of us are getting older. Maybe you’ve managed to escape the clock. But it’s ticking for the rest of us. I’m 45. Been in this movement for 25 years now. I’d like to win one for a change.”

    By backing Giuliani and then Romney? Give me a break. You’re a joke.

  204. Wayne Allyn Root. If he were the only name on the ballot, I would vote for “none of the above”. What a scumbag that guy is.

  205. Iran must be Guilianized.

  206. If you’re really for General Patreus, you would LET HIM WIN so we can take the fight to Iran next.

    I’m losing track of which Dondero is the real one and which is the fake. This is fake, right?

  207. Oh, I see you’re an Eric Garris conspiracy nit on Wyoming ‘eh there Keith?

    It was all those “rascally Republicans” who rigged the elections against “our man Ron”!

    No doubt we’ll be hearing much of the same tomorrow from the Paul-bot boards, “the Nevada GOP stacked the deck against us… We had this thing won…”

  208. The destruction of Iran is every mainstream libertarians dream.

  209. If you want to confirm the real Dondero just pick up the goddamned phone and call me. I’m right here.

    832-896-9505.

  210. Could we try to resist making this thread about one dick? There are 7 others who are trying to win the Nevada primary.

  211. I’m the real Eric Dondero. I think if the GOP has a brokered convention, it will be General Patreus. Hes a real winner. Not like “15%” Ron Paul.

  212. Ali: yes — exit polls put him in a solid second place there, way ahead of McCain.

    So why aren’t the exit polls number materializing?

  213. Update from CNN:

    37% reporting

    Romney 9,507 56%
    McCain 2,084 12%
    Paul 2,014 12%
    Huckabee 1,279 8%

  214. OK, time to ban the fake Dondero. The real one might be a tool, but the fake one is an idiot jackass for impersonating him.

  215. So why aren’t the exit polls number materializing?

    —————-

    Because 0 percent of the Washoe county precints are reporting right now. That was Paul’s strongest county and — if I remember correctly — the heaviest populated county in Nevada.

  216. This is like that Bruce Lee movie with the room of mirrors. Awesome.

  217. Looks like Ron Paul has fallen to 3rd place. Still a bit early. He could still climb to 2nd. But if he finishes 3rd that’s not a good sign for him, since he placed all his bets on winning Nevada.

    Some Paul Campaigners are gonna have some serious splainin’ to do.

  218. Ali: Washoe County has not been counted and RP is close to rivaling Romney there.

  219. Eric:

    And just how is it I’m trying to “raise the bar” Rick?

    As recently as right after the Mich. primary, CNN was looking for Ron Paul to finish 4th in Nev. and FOX said “5th and done”.

  220. Look! More classy politics from the Clinton camp.

  221. I don’t know…I think the fake Dondero makes the real one superflous..

  222. lol what are the libertarian ideals that General Patreus brings to the table Eric?

    Oh, but he’s a real winner, I forgot principles don’t matter.

  223. “since he placed all his bets on winning Nevada.”

    No he didn’t. Stop pulling garbage out of your rear end.

  224. @ Eric:

    The rules ar eon the internet but I will assist you with the search and point you to the pre-arranged delegates before the caucuses.

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/WY-R.phtml#0105

    No what other bullshit do you want to accuse people of being?

    I see you’re prediction for Alaska has started to change since the beginning of the thread.

    Now he has a chance?

    Thanks, oh wise one for the update on Alaska politics.

  225. John-David, thanks for saying that.

    I don’t mind being lampooned or slammed, even savaged. But kindly do not use my name as postings.

    If you must spoof me use an alteration like “Dondildo” or “Dumbdero” or some of the other colorful names my critics have come up with.

  226. Hey Derek, more to life than winning ‘eh?

    Well, that’s fine, but some of us are getting older. Maybe you’ve managed to escape the clock. But it’s ticking for the rest of us. I’m 45. Been in this movement for 25 years now. I’d like to win one for a change.

    You present me with a winner libertarian and I’ll back them.

    Actually, it seems that if presented with a winner of any stripe, you will back them, without regards for belief.

    After all, you backed Neocon Giuliani back when he was on top.

    Then you describe whomever won as “mainstream libertarian republican.”

    Let me guess … two days after Hillary wins, you will declare her a “mainstream libertarian republican who you supported the whole time.”

  227. Eric Dondero, didn’t you really endorse Patreus in the event of a brokered convention a few days back? I seem to recall that.

  228. I am the real Dondero . . . campaign update: Nevada has said something important here. Paul is a tied for second-place loser.

  229. Eric goes on record for the benefit of Keith:

    YES, RON PAUL DOES HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF WINNING THE ALASKA GOP CAUCUSES.

    There you happy?

  230. The above comment about Paul being tied for second place loser did not come from me.

  231. You’re welcome, Eric.

    Actually, I doubt that you really are a tool, but you would be much better received around here had you not gone with Giuliani earlier in the campaign season so heavily. It was grating at best, and probably poisoned any attempts you might have at staking a claim for Romney being the candidate libertarians should rally around.

  232. Fluffy — Nevada, with all its “robot Mormons”, is about 7% LDS. Romney is getting about half the vote in Nevada. It would appear that Romney’s win is primarily due to non-LDS conservatives, with a lesser boost from the LDS “robots”.

  233. I’m your huckleberry.

  234. @ Eric:

    Yes I am happy that you can at leat admit he can win Alaska. No one really knows for sure but the make-up of the state gives him a real good chance.

  235. I’m 45. Been in this movement for 25 years now. I’d like to win one for a change.

    And there you have it folks, Dondy’s hitting his midlife crisis and is tired of being a untalented loser so he’s starting to project onto political candidates.

  236. Current results:

    McCain is up by 70 votes on Paul.

  237. My hope for a brokered convention outcome:

    Cheney-Quayle ’08

    That’s the mainstream libertarian ticket.

  238. I’m your huckleberry.

    othercrap.com had a great picture regarding that, using Huckabee, Kilmer, Huckleberry Hound, and Spartacus. I wish I could find that.

  239. Early returns from Paul’s stronghold Washoe County, according to CNN:

    Romney 227 47%
    McCain 100 20%
    Paul 62 13%

  240. The Dondero game is fun! He is a hopeless and hapless loser lost in the crannies of his own confused political consciousness. Seeing him warp logic is actually rather entertaining . . . I never thought that such an incredible feat of pretzel-twisted reasoning was possible!

  241. I am the real Dondero

    Hey – sometimes life just ain’t fair! Get over it!

  242. Prolefeed,

    Even if NV is 7% LDS, 27% of the Republican voters from the exit pole are LDS. That makes a HUGE difference when >90% of those vote for you.

  243. Dondero,

    I don’t want to rain on your party, but that’s 0% counted.

  244. prolefeed,

    According to CNN’s entrance polls, 27% of the voters in the GOP caucuses are Mormons. Of course, they might not all be from NV…

  245. Foxhunter, again, the CNN exit polls are indicating that Romney has recieved “broad support” among the GOP electorate, not just LDS.

    56%. That’s a whopping win, and must include fiscal conservatives, defense conservative, and yes even some libertarians.

  246. Dem results are taking forever…

  247. Dondero = fvchjvjewrfjofoirverog3foohcfo3uf bvefb bfbi oufqbuoifuquf;f; ;qb

  248. 56%. That’s a whopping win, and must include fiscal conservatives, defense conservative, and yes even some libertarians.

    I don’t know who could argue that point. Now, Reasonites get to divide up into camps: those picking the least distasteful Republican, those picking the least distasteful Democrat, and those voting LP.

    Or, those like me, who most likely are going to abstain.

  249. I think that Dondero is undoing every thing that Kirchick managed to do with his article.

  250. Wait a minute. The election’s been over for 3 hours, but CNN just changed their entrance poll numbers to show Romney winning the much-sought-after “other Christians”. Media conspiracy! 😉

  251. Guys, I got wood right now.

  252. Also on the South Carolina ballot: Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who is hoping to appeal to libertarians, and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has invested his time in winning Florida’s Jan. 29, the next major contest.

    USA Today predictably puts Ron Paul as an end-of-story “also” candidate, but I was overjoyed that he was still ahead of Rudy.

  253. Dondero,

    I’m not coming at it from the LDS conspiracy angle because I don’t believe that at all. What I believe is that when a good percentage of the population is wholly committed to a candidate, some people take a better look at him. Like as in they vote for someone who they think can win.

  254. The Dem race is going to be close. Clinton will win of course, but even if she has a slight loss she will be able to spin it to her advantage. Or maybe she’ll just start talking in ebonics and cry again.

  255. 52% of the vote in from Clark County (Las Vegas).

    Romney has 58%

    McCain 11.5%

    Paul at 11.0%

  256. Eric Dondero | January 19, 2008, 3:24pm | #

    Derek, all I want in life is a US President who is generally conservative on economic matter, but centrist on social issues.

    Holy crap, he’s a Clintonite!

  257. And don’t forget that 27% of the votes cast are from Mormons desperate to get their religion into the spotlight. I would be very interested to see what percentage of qualified Mormon voters actually voted, because I would bet its near 90%.

  258. Yes Foxhunter, I agree. That’s why we need to pay attention to SC tonight. We may see a blip for Romney. No doubt the South Carolinians will hear about his huge win in Nevada before they go to the polls.

    My hunch, Romney climbs over Fred Thompson and finishes 3rd, maybe even comes close to Huckabee?

  259. Joe, Clinton probably isn’t interventionist enough for his taste. Clintons only bomb countries and kill innocent people. Dondero wants them bombed, andinvaded to kill innocent people.

  260. Also its not a conspiracy, the Mormons would really like a Mormon candidate in the spotlight. They are very organized and you can bet they did everything they could to make sure that every eligible person voted in this primary.

  261. You must be kidding me Joe?

    Clinton was a Socialist on Economics and a free speech stamping out near Fascist on civil liberties.

    He had one saving grace: He was Pro-Choice.

  262. Holy crap, he’s a Clintonite!

    Hell, by that loose definition I’m a Clintonite as well. But it depends on which Clinton you are talking about.

    Guarantee me that a Hillary presidency will have the same effect on this nation as Bill’s, and I’ll vote for her in a heartbeat. I don’t think that guarantee can be made.

  263. Guiliani=tough mainstream ballls of effectiveness.

    For teh win! lol.

  264. Clinton has won Nevada. If shes this far ahead despite the union endorsing Obama, and despite the casino caucuses, nothing can stop her from winning the nomination.

  265. Dondero, I really do agree with you on that. I think Thompson finishes a very disappointing 4th. But I do also think that there will be name mention of RP for finishing 2nd and beating McCain in one of his neighboring states. It won’t bring a SC surge, but it makes him look less fringe-y than so much of the conservative radio tries to portray him.

    Maybe not a short term kick, but perhaps a long term one?

  266. If I were a monkey, I would fling poo at Eric Dondero.

  267. Dondero,

    How is Nevada going to be somehow more important than IA or NH in the minds of SC voters? It’s not like the two states have, well, anything in common.

    If anything, SC evangelicals are more likely to get out and vote for The Christian Leader so as to counterbalance what those libertine Las Vegas RINOs did today.

  268. Check out this from good old Fox News and their blatant cnesoring of Ron Paul.

    http://people.ronpaul2008.com/campaign-updates/2008/01/19/fair-and-balanced/

    That is pretty unbelievable.

  269. I think joe’s “Clintonite” comment was referring to Democrats who voted for Clinton in the ’92 primaries even though they disagreed with him on the issues, because after 12 years of Republicans in the white house, they wanted to see a Democratic prez before they died.

  270. Hold it, Clinton has a 10-point lead with 27% reporting, according to MSNBC. Nobody is going to call it with those numbers.

  271. Bacon Ranch Pringles are delicious.

  272. Sorry about the crappy spelling errors. Having trouble with the keyboard.

  273. Joe, shes beating the crap out of Obama in Vegas and I doubt he has the votes in Reno to make up for it.

  274. No, I meant his description fits Bill and Hillary.

    generally conservative on economic matters, centrist on social issues

  275. Where are you looking, Cesar?

  276. Where are you looking, Cesar?

    Politico.

  277. 41% reporting, her lead is 5.5%

  278. Work computer, no Flashy, no politico.

  279. Yeah, I’m seeing the same as joe.

  280. I’m making my own projection that Clinton wins Nevada.

  281. So is MSNBC. 67% in, 50-45%.

    Edwards won 5%.

  282. And just before MSNBC confirms it!

  283. Well, shes got it in the bag now.

  284. How the hell does the Democratic precincts get 14 % ahead of the Republican, when they closed almost 2 hours after the Republicans?

  285. Yeah, nothing like the Hilldogg going around with a Robocall telling everyone that Barrack Huessain Obama shouldn’t be president.

  286. The democratic vote totals are waaaaay lower than the republicans.

  287. Yeah, nothing like the Hilldogg going around with a Robocall telling everyone that Barrack Huessain Obama shouldn’t be president.

    Yeah, Hilldog sure knows how to elevate the discourse. Its going to be a really shitty general election season.

  288. Oh man, what if the election is Huckster v. Hilldog?

  289. Ron Paul just pulled ahead of McCain in Clark County, and is within .2% (50 votes) statewide.

  290. Oh man, what if the election is Huckster v. Hilldog?

    If Bloomberg is in, I’ll vote for him before either of those.

  291. Foxhunter, the Democrats only report state delegate totals, not individual votes. The Republicans report straw poll votes.

  292. Damn I hate Clinton..hopefully Edwards pulls out and endorses Obama…

  293. Thanks crw

    Huckster v. Hilldog will definitely send my vote to the LP, but then again, that’s where is usually goes anyway.

  294. I can’t believe how stupid the Democrats are to nominate her. “Oh, she cried! I must vote for her now!”

  295. Funny, Obama’s beating Clinton in every county except Clark and neighboring, much smaller Lincoln. Looks like those casino caucuses didn’t hurt her after all..

  296. UPDATE!!!

    Romney 13,819 – 54%
    Paul 3,286 – 13%
    McCain 3,279 – 13%

  297. There’s no way Edwards pulls out before SC. That’s his firewall state, and the Democratic SC primary isn’t until next weekend.

  298. This has to mean that Clinton won a lot of Edwards 2nd Choicers I am guessing…strange.

  299. I can’t believe how stupid the Democrats are to nominate her. “Oh, she cried! I must vote for her now!”

    Not any stupider than their republican counterparts.

  300. ABC calls Nevada for Hillary

  301. Hillary has managed to turn Obama into Jesse Jackson Lite in the space of less than a month. Amazing.

  302. One of my friends is an Edwards supporter and I ask her why all the time.

    Her answer – because Edwards talks about the “real” issues of Global Warming and Universal Health Care. Obama probably won’t get that crowd.

    Still a lot of democrats are holding their noses as picking Hilldog.

  303. Kucinich must have gotten 15% of the vote somewhere, since he’s got delegates.

  304. The dynasty shit has to be stopped in November or we get George P. Bush and Chelesea Clinton sometime in the 2020s.

  305. I’m all about Sarah Palin’s upcoming run!

  306. Ali-

    Hes Jeb Bush’s son. Hes the one the are grooming for the Presidency next.

  307. I’ve never considered not voting before(hell I work for the Minnesota Democratic Party), but Hillary…why why why why why? Who are all these people who support her? Is it just women?

  308. YES!!!

    CNN reporting Paul now in 2nd place!

    Paul 2,916 13%

    McCain 2,871 12%

  309. Assuming Obama wins as expected in South Carolina, going into Super Tuesday, Hillary will have won two contests and, barring some big shift, Obama will have won two contests.

    For the first time since before the Iowa caucuses, Hillary actually has the upper hand. If she wins South Carolina, she goes into Super Tuesday in the lead, both in terms of the “record,” and the momentum. If Obama wins, they go in tied – she with her greater institutional support, he with the momentum of winning the most recent contest. If they go in tied, she’s still the frontrunner. Obama has to win in South Carolina, and Clinton can afford not to.

    If the Democratic primary in SC had been today, and Obama had won it, there would be no momentum, no most-recent-victory stories, becasue they would have split today.

    It’s interesting how Clinton outperformed the polls by about 5 points in New Hampshire, and underperformed by about the same amount today, while once again, the polls were pretty good for the Republicans. There’s something the pollsters aren’t catching in the Democratic race, and it’s not predictable how their error will go. Maybe they overcorrected in their sample weights after New Hampshire?

  310. I’m all about Sarah Palin’s upcoming run!

    Heh! I’m all about Sarah Palin in a Bikini!

  311. Joe-

    Its middle aged white women.

  312. James,

    Since this is the first Nevada caucus that matters, we really don’t know how that electorate matches up with the national electorate.

    Pro-life Mormon Harry Reid is the top-ranking Democrat in Nevada.

  313. Cesar,

    You mean James, and I’d say working class white women, of all ages.

  314. Ali-

    Hes Jeb Bush’s son. Hes the one the are grooming for the Presidency next.

    Darn! Wouldn’t it be ironic if Mary Cheney gets into politics and ends up the hawkish republican nominee? VP for G. P. Bush?

  315. Oh, and its probably the Clint-o-matic robo calls as well.

  316. Joe –

    Why do old people like Hilldog and McCain?

  317. Change of subject…

    A fellow libertarian in Tenneesse just told me minutes ago, that Ron Paul was quoted in the local Brazoria Facts newspaper this morning as saying that he could go 3rd party, and that if he did, it “probably would not be the Libertarian Party,” but rather he’d run as an Independent cause he has so much support from Democrats over the War.

  318. I think Obama’s main problem is he’s running like he’s in the general campaign. He’s not throwing out enough red meat for Democratic partisans, and his unity talk has a lot of them worried he’ll pull a Gerry Ford and decline to prosecute ex-Bushies.

    Many Democrats are motivated by revenge at this point, and Obama just doesn’t appeal to them.

  319. Paul is up by 13 votes with 38.34% in, according to politico.

  320. Paul is up by 20 votes (on McCain) with 38% in according to CNN.

  321. Damn…I guess it doesn’t help that Obama has been such an empty suit…despite my dislike for Hillary, she has been a lot more specific.

  322. Great, the leftist nutroots revenge bloodlust gives us another eight years of nutty partisanship. Instead of having bumperstickers that say BUSHITLER!!!! I’ll have to stare at HITLERY! bumperstickers.

  323. Oh, and its probably the Clint-o-matic robo calls as well.

    Let’s not pretend that the Clintons are the only ones who don’t want Obama to win the nomination. There are actual anti-Muslim bigots out there who think they’re saving the country from a Manchurian Candidate with that email that’s going around.

  324. Here’s the article Eric quoted:

    http://www.thefacts.com/story.lasso?ewcd=0d3130e3a25f177d

    He said he’s 99.9% sure he won’t run third party.

  325. Here are results being offered by the Nevada GOP:

    Results

  326. Joe,

    I don’t think its going to matter in South Carolina for Dems…I think Obama will likely win, but Clinton is going to have a huge advantage in the Feb. 5 primaries….barring an Edwards pullout and endorsement, I don’t think Hillary is stoppable.

  327. Paul 4390
    McCain 4359

    nvgopcaucas.com

  328. Guarantee me that a Hillary presidency will have the same effect on this nation as Bill’s, and I’ll vote for her in a heartbeat.

    I think a lot of people would. But she’d lose a lot of her feminist support if she ran on the slogan “I’ll be just like Bill!”

    Unless, of course, that included having a female intern go down on her.

  329. She’ll bring back the partisan assholery of the 1990s without its booming economy or peace.

  330. crw | January 19, 2008, 4:30pm | #

    I think Obama’s main problem is he’s running like he’s in the general campaign. He’s not throwing out enough red meat for Democratic partisans, and his unity talk has a lot of them worried he’ll pull a Gerry Ford and decline to prosecute ex-Bushies.

    Many Democrats are motivated by revenge at this point, and Obama just doesn’t appeal to them.

    Along those lines, let’s not forget that Obama’s margin of victory in Iowa came from independents, and Paul appears to have gotten a lot of independent votes in Nevada.

  331. BP,

    As long as it’s uber-hottie Huma Abedin, all I want is 24 hour video surveillance. On lesbian trysts.

  332. Wake me up when it’s 2016.

  333. Anyone know why the Republican precincts reporting essentially stopped? It’s been 38% for like an hour. Dems are 79% reporting already.

  334. Is there a Monarchists for Hillary website yet?

  335. I wish if we were going to be an Imperialist Monarchy, we’d just be honest about it.

  336. Guarantee me that a Hillary presidency will have the same effect on this nation as Bill’s, and I’ll vote for her in a heartbeat.

    Right, everything that happened in the mid/late 90s is because Bill Clinton was president. Had nothing to do with the Cold War ending, or the Internet booming.

  337. I have to say that I agree Joe…after the 2004 convention I was ready to be a big Obama fan, then I read his book…took all of my energy and excitment away. He didn’t seem to be coming from any set of principles, just a vague notion of balancing interests.

  338. “Anyone know why the Republican precincts reporting essentially stopped?”

    Too busy putting the Ron Paul votes through the shredder, perhaps.

  339. Anyone know why the Republican precincts reporting essentially stopped? It’s been 38% for like an hour. Dems are 79% reporting already.

    Conspiratorially speaking, they want to delay the news about Paul’s strong second place. Realistically though, I think that republicans are slow at arithmetics.

  340. As long as it’s uber-hottie(Al Qaeda Mata Hari) Huma Abedin

  341. James,

    The same pattern has repeated itself in each of the three contests to date, and looks like it’s going to happen in South Carolina: Hillary has a double-digit lead a few weeks out, and Obama closes the gap as the election gets closer, and the question is whether he overtakes her or not.

    Hillary is definitely ahead in the Super Tuesday states now, but we’ll see if (or rather, where) Obama catches up to her as the election day comes closer.

  342. crimethink,

    Re-read my statement that you quoted. I didn’t make Bill the cause, I just said I want the same results, with a guarantee.

  343. Politicians are chumps.

  344. Too busy putting the Ron Paul votes through the shredder, perhaps.

    Hilarious, yet conceivable.

  345. Along those lines, let’s not forget that Obama’s margin of victory in Iowa came from independents, and Paul appears to have gotten a lot of independent votes in Nevada.

    Very true. If I had to wager a guess, Obama will do better in states with large numbers of Independents and Independent friendly primary rules, especially if McCain drops out.

  346. Mookie Blaylock was the original name of Pearl Jam.

    In case anyone didn’t know. And I didn’t post under that name, just thought it was cool.

  347. Joe,

    I think Edwards is going to have to decide if he’s going to maintain his ‘personal’ crusade and guarantee a Hillary victory, I’m sure there has to be some dealing with the Obama team going on.

  348. Right, everything that happened in the mid/late 90s is because Bill Clinton was president. Had nothing to do with the Cold War ending, or the Internet booming.

    Don’t forget oil at $10 a barrel– in part thanks to George Soros currency play killing demand in SE Asia.

  349. Can George Soros do that again please?

  350. Obama’s biggest weakness has been that he disagrees with the Bush administration, but somehow doesn’t seem to blame them for the problems, as if we disagreed about which movies we like or whether we liked Crest or Aqua Fresh…its such a laid-back gentlemanly disagreement…

  351. Paul is in 2nd place! Let’s all do the political funky chicken!!

  352. crw | January 19, 2008, 4:42pm | #

    If I had to wager a guess, Obama will do better in states with large numbers of Independents and Independent friendly primary rules, especially if McCain drops out.

    So, if Hillary wins the nominatin, you know who to blame.

    Heh.

  353. James,

    And then you have Hillary, who agrees with the Bush Administration and then blames them for the problems anyway.

  354. James,

    Obama’s going for electable, which won the nomination last time, but Democrats don’t seem to see Hillary as unelectable.

    And given the head-to-head polling, and the fact that McCain isn’t winning the election, they might be right.

  355. Where is Waldo Dondero?

  356. This message board reminds of something . . . For every Big Bird there is a Snuffleupagus.

  357. Where is Waldo Dondero?

    Passed out drunk? Seriously, the guy gets more and more belligerent with every post. It makes you wonder if he drinks then goes on the internet. Which I can tell you is never, ever a good idea.

  358. Big jump in precincts reporting. Up to 56% now, and Paul is still in 2nd, but it’s really close.

  359. Interesting: Hillary won big among people who identified their biggest issue as “the economy.”

    With the economy going south, this is bad news for a) Obama and b) the Republicans.

  360. Another jump, up to 78% and Paul is still in 2nd.

  361. If I were a monkey, I would fling poo at Eric Dondero.

    If I were a flying monkey, I wouldn’t have to fling it.

  362. And Hillary’s response will be “repeal the Bush tax cuts for the “wealthy”.” I don’t see how thats going to be very popular.

  363. Hillary is corporatist DLC…the left wing of the Republican Party, I am getting ready to puke during the general election when she has to promise that she will quickly nuke another nation without a moment’s thought.

    Joe…I think Hillary can win in the general, I just don’t understand why people want that. I think Republicans are going to lose no matter what…

  364. Well Hillary was the first to come out prominently with a fiscal stimulous plan…Obama just proscribed more ‘change’…

  365. Oh man, what if the election is Huckster v. Hilldog?

    I campaign for Her Iciness, of course.

  366. “Fiscal stimulus” packages are such a load of bunk.

  367. J-D – I’d like a personal assistant like that. Then again, I guess most of us would.

    Also, apropos of nothing, Pink Floyd was once known as Megga Death.

    J sub D – you (as flying monkey) would have a hard time hitting Eric as he constantly switched back and forth.

  368. How are delegates apportioned in Nevada? I’m thinking that if it’s proportional, Romney gets 17, Paul gets 8, and McCain gets 7, based on the results right now.

  369. Cesar, seen any issue polling in the past year?

    The Democrats lead the Republicans on taxes – taxes! – and have been talking about repealing Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy for six years.

  370. The Democrats lead the Republicans on taxes – taxes! – and have been talking about repealing Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy for six years.

    Wait until a few negative ads are released on that. A tax hike during a recession is economic stupidity.

  371. “Fiscal stimulus” packages are such a load of bunk”

    I am not disagreeing with that Cesar, I’m just saying that when you are a candidate with no specifics like Obama and something happens in the world you are vaunerable to anybody with any ideas.

  372. I prefer candidates who don’t have any “plan” for me at all, actually.

  373. This is really sad for the Dems. Hillary is pretty much the nominee now, and if she gets elected for two terms by 2016 (40 years!) the Democrats will not have won a single general election without their nominee being named “Clinton”. Watch the next Clinton that runs for President play that to full effect.

  374. Romney, Dondero’s fiscal conservative, used his first statement after the press asked him about winning in Nevada to talk about a fiscal stimulus package.

    Katherine Jean Lopez, if you are reading this, I just used “Romney” and “package” in the same sentence. Please pull down the shades while you put your Flight Suit Day video on endless loop.

  375. I think the just-barely-rejected campaign slogan for Obama was “Vague Notions in 2008”

  376. So if you are a flying monkey, what Oz character is Dondero?

  377. Giuliani’s done so badly again. Sixth place. Ha!

  378. Cesar, you’re confusing your opinions with those of the electorate.

    Wait until a few negative ads are released on that. A tax hike during a recession is economic stupidity. Some footage of Republicans saying the same thing in 1993 ought to take care of that. Heck, she’s even a Clinton.

  379. Thats not bad for Rudy, I figured he come in somewhere between 9th and 11th place…

  380. Rudy’s been in tougher spots than this. Did I ever tell you about…

  381. Joe | January 19, 2008, 4:44pm | #

    Joe,

    I think Edwards is going to have to decide if he’s going to maintain his ‘personal’ crusade and guarantee a Hillary victory, I’m sure there has to be some dealing with the Obama team going on.

    Talking to yourself? Yeah I’ve heard that before. Posting comments to yourself? That’s a new one.
    😉

  382. I see CNN has given Paul 3 delegates.

  383. So will John Edwards be called the Nader of Nevada now?

  384. How sad is it though when you see a candidate do well in one state and then all of a sudden polls spike in the next state in their favor? I guess there is just this huge mass of people who want to pick the winner no matter what…Somebody please tell me what to think!!

  385. I’ve spotted a definite correlation. The better Ron Paul is doing, the less Eric Dondero posts the results.

  386. I think joe’s right. Even if there’s a broad “fiscally conservative” coalation out there, for most people outside of libertarian and Republican partisan circles, it starts and ends with balanced budgets. People don’t really care about a 3% difference in their tax rate, and no serious Democrat is advocating we go back to pre-Reagan tax levels.

  387. Anyone able to explain this, from CNN’s Nevada caucus results?

    STATE INFORMATION: 5 electoral votes
    1,043,555 total registered voters — 41% Democratic, 40% Republican, 16% Independent/non-partisan, 5% Other

    Other? Does Nevada allow registrations for the Green Party, LP, etc. to count?

  388. So if you are a flying monkey, what Oz character is Dondero?

    Scarecrow, no brain.

  389. Most of the precincts still to report look to be in Washoe, where the entrance poll showed Paul with 25% of the vote. Currently he has only 15% there. Hopefully he should be able to finish ahead of McCain on that basis.

  390. Adamness | January 19, 2008, 5:13pm | #
    So will John Edwards be called the Nader of Nevada now?

    Doubtful. Even if every county delegate than went to Edwards went to Obama instead, he still would have lost.

  391. Dondero: Your drug-fueled Romney-gasm “analysis” just underscores the wisdom of Ron Paul in keeping you as far away from politics and policy as possible while you were on the payroll. I guess every office needs a driver and a go-fer, but I still can’t understand why they couldn’t have found a sane one…

  392. Hillary Clinton’s campagin is eerily similar to Robert Patrick’s character in Terminator 2; no matter how many teams you think they are dead, they keep on coming. Wait, do you think the machines sent Hillary back in time to become president and destroy the United States, which was the only nation capable of stopping the machine army? Conspiracy theorist? No, Ron Paul supporter!

  393. “Other? Does Nevada allow registrations for the Green Party, LP, etc. to count?”

    Not all political parties are officially recognized in every state. I think the parties have to show a certain amount of support in each state to get on the registration form.

    By the way, how do you quote people and italicize around here?

  394. And they REALLY don’t care about a 3% change in the takes rates of other people. And they REALLY REALLY don’t care about a 3% change in tax rates of other people who make six figures.

    And, especially after the 1990s, they REALLY REALLY REALLY don’t buy arguments about tax hikes on people making six figures hurting the economy.

  395. joe,

    I agree that modest changes in the tax rate on people making $250,000+ are not going to hurt the economy. I think people are still scared of the 90% marginal rates that used to be imposed.

  396. Adamness | January 19, 2008, 5:13pm | #
    So will John Edwards be called the Nader of Nevada now?

    No. Nader’s vote was both larger than the margin of victory AND drew votes away from one candidate more than the other by a huge %.

    With no Nader, Gore wins Florida, Arizona, and maybe some other states. With no Edwards, Hillary still wins Nevada today, even if we assume an 80/20% split of his votes going to Obama, which is itself too large.

  397. Adamness,

    To do italics, you type before the quote and after the quote, except instead of ggg you type i.

    If you want to bold, type b instead of i.

  398. D’oh!

    OK, to do italics, you type (i) before the quote and (/i) after the quote, except instead of () you use .

    If you want to bold, type b instead of i.

  399. D’oh!

    Look, just use quotes, ok?

  400. If we accept the pre-caucus polling, I think we have to guess that Clinton won by grabbing more Edwards voters that we might predict.

  401. Christ, 14 votes is the lead Paul has over McCain.

  402. I don’t think the actual results (Clinton led by 9 in the final Mason-Dixon poll) matter as much as the internals. Clinton got trounced with black voters, so South Carolina is nigh unwinnable unless Edwards voters go to her. But she won whites, Hispanics and Jewish voters, which bodes really well for the non-Southern Super Tuesday states.

  403. ” highly public sites with hundreds of visitors a day. ”

    Hate to break it to you, Rittberg, but hundreds of hits in a day amounts to about .00001% of diddly-squat. You’ll get that much just from spammers scanning pages for e-mail addresses.

    -jcr

  404. 14 votes… but where are the results for washoe county?

  405. joe,

    If you want to display < and >, you type “ampersand lt semicolon” and “ampersand gt semicolon” without the “”s. And don’t hit Preview, because it will screw it up.

  406. With 90 of 1489 precincts left to go, RP has a 110-vote lead over the Eternal Warrior!

  407. John Randolph, thanks for twisting my quote. I didn’t say “hundreds of hits” I said hundreds of visitors. Big difference. You’re right “hits” can mean spam. Visitors mean live bodies.

    My unique visitors are somewhat compatible to Third Party Watch and Knappster. Reason I ain’t for sure. My hats off to Reason.com for a truly excellent site, that’s quite fair and balanced.

  408. That’s about 0.3%.

  409. Dedalus, huh? Ron Paul kept me “far away from politics” in all those years I worked for him?

    Who do you think is responsible for getting Karl Rove to put the word out that it was safe for TX GOPer mainstreamers to back Paul in the General?

    My title in 1996, was “Campaign Coordinator.” I hardly see how that’s “far away from politics.”

  410. Question?

    Does Paul win any Delegates today from a 2nd or 3rd place showing in Nevada, or is it a Winner take All State?

    Anyone know?

  411. Paul finished third in Washoe with 14%…wtf!

    Clark and Washoe are fully reported. Remaining reports will be coming mostly from Nye and Storey counties, plus a few rural areas.

  412. CNN’s already showing Paul with 3 delegates.

  413. CNN (on-line) says he picks 3. CNN (the TV) says that that won’t be determined until April?

  414. The result in Clark mirrored the entrance poll, but for Washoe it was way off.

  415. Eric,

    It’s not winner take all. That much I’m pretty sure of….

  416. Who do you think is responsible for getting Karl Rove to put the word out that it was safe for TX GOPer mainstreamers to back Paul in the General?

    Uh…not you?

    My title in 1996, was “Campaign Coordinator.”

    And you made delicious coffee. Thanks.

    But by 2000 (before your “life-changing” 9-11), your official title was “sometime driver and general fuck-up”.

    You see, usually, competent people actually move up in an organization as the years pass. Generally, they do not move down the ladder.

    Face it, even before your “foreign policy break” with Ron Paul, you were already considered an enormous embarrassment in the district and every effort was made to keep you as far in the background as possible.

    Your frequent “disappearances” into Mexico did not make matters any easier…

  417. Paul finished third in Washoe with 14%…wtf!

    Those hookers kept the Paul voters occupied…

  418. Maybe RP should have pushed for caucus sites inside the brothels like the Culinary Union did with the casinos…

  419. Clark and Washoe are fully reported. Remaining reports will be coming mostly from Nye and Storey counties, plus a few rural areas.

    That means a likely 3rd place finish, I guess. Damn! Jesse Walker got me over confident with the headline on the other thread…

  420. “Maybe RP should have pushed for caucus sites inside the brothels like the Culinary Union did with the casinos…”

    Yeah, one way to secure a big chunk of the cosmo vote.

  421. I forgot to mention
    Carson City, which is also barely reported. McCain is winning there and Humboldt Co. so far, Paul is winning in Storey and Esmeralda, and they’re tied in Nye.

  422. With 86%, Paul is almost 100 votes ahead of McCain. He still might get 2nd.

  423. only 77 votes between them, according to the nevadagop site, down from 100+ a few minutes ago.

  424. crimethink,

    Thanks. Do you have a prediction of your own vis a vis RP’s finish?

  425. Thanks, crimethink! You are teh Lord of Teh Tubez.

    Anybody got a site that displays vote totals, instead of just %s and delegate counts?

  426. They just deducted 24 votes from Ron Paul’s totals for some reason. He went from 77 ahead to 53 ahead.

  427. I don’t mean his lead just shrunk, I mean his vote total went down and McCain’s didn’t change.

    joe, the Dems, true to their collectivist nature, don’t report individual vote totals but delegates won.

  428. Thanks, Bingo

  429. Nevada GOP Caucus agenda
    Eric:

    NV GOP Caucus FAQ

    It looks like delegates to the county conventions are actually picked separately from the Presidential preference straw poll results you see reported in the media.

    According to the FAQ, there’s actually a 3 stage process. Precinct delegates are elected today. There will be county conventions in March where the precinct delegates vote for state delegates. Then in April, there’s a state convention where the state delegates decide who gets sent to the Republican National Convention. It’s not winner takes all, but you need lots of delegates at the state convention to have a chance at sending anyone to the national convention. The preference results appear to be non-binding and hence meaningless.

  430. New numbers in. If this trend was to hold up, we’ll lose.

  431. McCain’s leading Paul in nearly all the areas still to fully report. I think it’s going to slip away…

  432. You know, the Devlish side of me almost hopes Paul pulls this off over McCain, if only to embarrass McCain, and dampen his expected big victory tonight in SC.

    Looks like it’s going to be a nail biter.

  433. You know…whats shocking to me after the past 8 years is why so many Republicans have such problems with McCain. After the Bush disaster, they should be thrilled to have any chance at the White House…

  434. Hey, who in the Hell is this Rudy Giuliani? Duncan Hunter must be really embarrassed he’s losing to him.

  435. I know a lot are predicting McCain…but I think it might be Huck tonight. Evangelicals are the most organized part of the Republican party.

  436. Giuliani can claim to have skipped the early votes all he wants, but he’s acquired the stench of a big time loser in the process. Good.

  437. I’m afraid that next update RP falls behind McCain. Still, a “tie” for 2nd is noteworthy.

  438. ya know, if Rudy was doing better in these contests he’d be splitting the rino vote, thus helping Dr Paul.

  439. Running against Democrats always gives the Republicans a chance at the White House.

  440. New numbers in. If this trend was to hold up, we’ll lose.

    Sorry, but we already lost. It’s not like Paul has any chance of winning the nomination anyway, so 2nd or a close 3rd isn’t that bad.

  441. CNN is now reporting Paul 5628 and McCain 5514

  442. CNN is now reporting Paul 5,742 and McCain 5,548 with 98 percent of precincts reporting.

  443. You know, the Devlish side of me almost hopes Paul pulls this off over McCain

    That’s not the devlish side of you, it’s your libertarian conscience.

    Come back to the Light, Dondero!

  444. No Crimethink, that’s the anti-McCain side of me. It would be nice if we could say McCain was beaten by conspiratorialist extremist Ron Paul in Nevada, and by religious extremist Huckabee in SC.

    That would doom him. And it would set up a Romney vs. Huckabee fight from here on it. And Romney wins that battle.

  445. Duncan Hunter just dropped out….He was still running?

  446. And Romney wins that battle.

    Flip-floppin’, gun-grabbin’, abortion subsidizin’, massive federal taxpayer subsidies to big business Romney.

    @0 billion promised to the auto industry.
    We need more farm and ethanol subsidies.
    I’ll sign the assault weapons ban.

    I can’t see where Romney is any better than the Huckster and McCain

  447. SIV, but he’ll DOUBLE GITMO!

  448. Do not forget, Romney will invest in technology and strengthen our families. Romney knows DC is broken, and He knows what it takes to fix it.

  449. If Romney is the nominee, the Dems might be able to nominate Kucinich and win.

  450. Mitt Romney also wants people to have healthcare so bad that he fines them if they don’t have it. What a great guy!

  451. Duncan Hunter just dropped out…

    So the big question arises… who will get the immensely coveted Hunter endorsement?

  452. Other than Paul, I would guess Rudy has paid the most per vote so far.

  453. Eric,

    Good strategy, except that religious extremist Huckabee also beat Romney in IA and is almost certainly going to beat him in SC.

  454. SIV,

    A month ago I would have agreed with you. But Huckabee is in a horribleness league of his own at this point. At least Romney doesn’t think we should amend the Constitution to conform to the Book of Mormon.

  455. Huckabee is not a religious extremist, He is the chosen candidate. Like Dubya before Him, He is the pick of God and all good Christians have a duty to vote for Him.

  456. Well, lets be fair. Romney is pretty much a bland “business conservative”…not libertarian in any meaningful sense of the word, but he isn’t a liberal either. A vote for Romney is pretty much a vote for the post 2006 takeover status quo. I’m not thrilled, but better to have someone who’ll resist Democratic economic initiatives than someone (like Huckabee) who’ll agree with the basic ideology.

    What I’m really curious about now is who Romney is likely to bring in to the administration. If it’s the same bad actors who’ve been abusing executive power and incompetently managing the government, that’s one thing. If he’s going to bring fresh people in who are maybe actual conservatives (at least of the Chamber of Commerce variety), that’s another entirely. If we’re going to have roughly the same level of government spending regardless, I’d rather at least have it managed by competent people, instead of cronies.

  457. Well, I’ll give this to the current incarnation of Eric Dondero: if Ron Paul weren’t in the race, I would probably be supporting Romney (“supporting” as in “being least opposed to”). It’s sort of the opposite of the antiwar, pro-McCain logic: sure, the positions he takes are awful, but he’s probably lying so he’s not as bad as a true believer in that stuff (Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee).

  458. I have heard if Romney wins the nomination His likely choice for running mate is Colin Powell. If that is the case, I would likely vote for Him.

  459. Because the Democratic states are not winner-take all and the Hillary/Obama races have been close the delegates will stay close…Could Edwards stay in the race all the way to the convention and then try to use his delegates to get Obama the win?

  460. Paul’s in 2nd place in SC, only one vote off the lead! He’s got more than twice as many votes as Romney!

    McCain 8 21%
    Paul 7 18%
    Huckabee 6 16%
    Romney 3 8%
    Thompson 2 5%
    Giuliani 0 0%

    Huh? What are sample sizes?

  461. “My unique visitors are somewhat compatible to Third Party Watch and Knappster.”

    So, your diddly-squat amounts to comparability to two other sites I’ve never heard of?

    Hope you have very low overhead, or a wife with a real job.

    -jcr

  462. I have heard if Romney wins the nomination His likely choice for running mate is Colin Powell. If that is the case, I would likely vote for Him.

    Romney isn’t a bad choice, no matter who his running mate is. True, he’s phony to the toenails, but if you can avoid throwing up when you listen to him, he has a pretty good track record as an executive.

  463. Ha Ha Ha Ha

    on behalf of the rEVOLution, I would just like to thank Matt Welch and Reason for helping us get the redneck vote!

    Dr. Paul takes the Silver in the Silver State!!

  464. If Huck wins tonight we might have to hope for the Rapture before election day to stop him…

  465. Paul’s in 2nd place in SC, only one vote off the lead! He’s got more than twice as many votes as Romney!

    Linky please?

  466. Exit polls seem to show a significant McCain win…

  467. I know no one’s paying attention to it, but Fred Thompson just fell behind Huckabee in NV in the battle for 4th.

  468. With 39 precincts left to count, Ron Paul is up by 192 votes! That breaks the brief anti- Ron trend. What happened with that observation that McCain was leading in almost all the areas still to be counted?

    If Ron Paul does beat McCain, call in for an extra large order of crow for FOX news. I think that when they predicted Ron Paul to finish 5th in NV, they were really just wishin and hopein, not predicting.

  469. Rick Barton,

    This is as much as we will get out of NV. NV is history now. SC numbers are coming in. RP is no where to be seen in the top 4. Sad.

  470. “Linky please?”

    Pig Mannix,

    The numbers I gave above were from the CNN link David Weigel gave. Of course, they’re completely meaningless, because a grand total of 26 votes had been counted. Now that several thousand have been counted, the numbers actually make sense. I was just making a joke, albeit a fairly stupid one.

  471. Ali,

    Do you have a link for the SC results?

  472. “Do not forget, Romney will invest in technology and strengthen our families.”

    Yeah, we all know how well government initiatives work out…

    -jcr

  473. As stated above, Mitt Romney is, indeed:

    A terrible candidate doomed to lose to any Democrat;

    A business conservative/ corporatist;

    An unprincipled squish;

    And a highly effective executive.

  474. Joe, how would he be with executive power? I mean judging from Massachusetts, not his panderdroid rhetoric about “doubling GITMO”.

  475. Romney isn’t a bad choice, no matter who his running mate is. True, he’s phony to the toenails, but if you can avoid throwing up when you listen to him, he has a pretty good track record as an executive.

    I’m not so sure an effective executive is a good thing, particularly in a centrist Statist.
    I fear he will ” work in a bipartisan fashion and get things done” for real.

  476. Romney is the perfect foil to make Hillary look genuine.

  477. In NV it’s Dr Paul 14% John M 13%!!

  478. Thanks, Ali

  479. I think its going to be a big McCain win tonight…

  480. Interesting timing. I really do believe that the way numbers come out are controlled. Now that all eyes are on SC, it is okay for them to release numbers that show some slight (but non-minimal) advantages. Oh, well.

  481. Cesar,

    Mitt Romney has the most aggressive, pseudo-monarchist position on executive party of any candidate in the race, including Guiliani.

    You know the level of executive power a CEO has in a corporation, and how there isn’t really a legislative or judicial branch in a corporation to check him? Romney would apply the presidency, but with the NSA, Air Force, and FBI.

    I didn’t used to think this. From watching him stay in line as Governor in Massachusetts, I was under the impression that he would be pretty good at working with the legislature, but his own words on the campaign trail have convinced me otherwise. The man is a fanatical, Dick Cheney-style advocate of executive power.

  482. I’m making another early projection (Hey, I’ve been 100% accurate so far!) and say McCain wins SC. How big, I don’t know, but he wins.

  483. According to CNN’s exit poll, SC should wind up at (in %)

    McCain 32
    Huckabee 28
    Romney 16
    Thompson 15
    Paul 6
    Giuliani 4
    Hunter 1

  484. you all realize that the “States’ rights” position wouldn’t have stopped the senseless violence that happened in Virginia. “States Rights” is bullshit. So this citizen isn’t applauding anything hier.

    and what joe said.

  485. Ali,

    They’ve shown Paul and McCain neck-and-neck in NV since the polls closed there. I doubt there’s any conspiracy to keep Paul’s numbers low till the last minute.

    I thought that’s what was happening when Washoe County’s numbers were delayed so long, but then it turned out that McCain beat Paul there, so go figure.

  486. States don’t have “rights” only powers. Only individuals have rights.

  487. I think McCain will beat the CNN exit polls by a few points…

  488. Some definite WTF results in those SC exit polls. Like a plurality of people who think tax cutting is a priority went for Huckabee? And the majority went for Huckabee and McCain combined over solid tax cutters like Romney, Giulliani and Thompson? Meh!

  489. crimethink- could be. I just don’t trust those crooks.

  490. crimethink,

    Well, at least the exit poll predicts Ron beating warmonger Giuliani.

  491. Cesar,

    And I’m not talking about “Doubling Gitmo.” As there have been examples of clearly inappropriate acts by the Bush administration – from the US Attorneys scandals to warrantless wiretapping to habeas corpus – Romney has argued forcefully not only for the action taken, but for the necessity of the president having the power to do so on his own.

  492. And I’m not talking about “Doubling Gitmo.” As there have been examples of clearly inappropriate acts by the Bush administration – from the US Attorneys scandals to warrantless wiretapping to habeas corpus – Romney has argued forcefully not only for the action taken, but for the necessity of the president having the power to do so on his own.

    Yeah, but can you really believe Romney’s rhetoric in primary season? What if Multiple-Choice Mitt flips and says he will reduce executive power in the general? Which Mitt will materialize?

  493. I’m gonna split for a while and pretend that I have a life and stuff in the outside world…

  494. Fred is speaking… hmmm.. that early?

  495. He sounds like a looser.. leaving the race? Good riddance.

  496. The High Priests of Pomposity predict poorly!

    Dondero and Welch are not only sell-out tools, they also are idiots!

    LOL

  497. I don’t think he’d drop out before the SC results came in.

  498. Its hard to imagine a worse campaign than Fred Thompson’s…Oops…Rudy is giving him a run for the money.

  499. They ARE coming in and he is 4th so far. Why else would he be giving a speech with 3% in? Celebrate? Not when he’s ranking 4th.

  500. Obama Wins Nevada!! on DKos…Obama actually is getting more delegates from Nevada than Clinton 13-12…ridiculous weighting system.

  501. His talk sounds like he’s going to endorse Paul. He’s talking about the Constitution, big government and federalism.

  502. I agree with some of what Fred is saying, but he’s sooooooooo dull and boring. Get to the point already.

  503. Those exit poll results are fascinating, its like a divide between evangelicals and military.

  504. UPDATE 7:50: The friends I’m watching with are convinced Romney’s delegate rack-up will help him eventually win at the convention. I don’t think so. If Thompson goes out, he endorses McCain. If Rudy goes out, he endorses McCain.

    Uh, Rudy and Fred have barely any delegates, so I don’t see why that would make a difference.

  505. That’s it? What’s the point?

  506. I hope to God Huckabee crashes, crashes hard and fast. I hope Huckabee loses and Bennett’s prediction comes to fruition that Huckabee has to pull out if He loses in SC.

  507. Ali,

    I take it he didn’t say what you wanted to hear. 😉

  508. Andrew Jackson- But he’s got God behind, no?

  509. I take it he didn’t say what you wanted to hear. 😉

    No 🙁

    Oh, well, but that was a cheap shot from him. He raised my hopes that I won’t have to see his face on TV any more.

  510. Huckabee is getting killed in the Non-Evangelical bloc. If He somehow gets the nomination, the Republicans do not have a chance in hell to win the general election.

  511. He has the same God behind Him that Dubya did. The one who advised him to invade Iraq…quit drinking the Kool-Aid Christians, a vote for Huckabee is not a vote for God.

  512. I hope McCain wins and Fred gets 4th or something.

  513. AJ: Their chances aren’t much better with any of the other candidates.

  514. He has the same God behind Him that Dubya did.

    And Dubya won two presidential elections.

  515. Why are you guys capitalizing “he” referring to Huckabee? It’s creeping me out.

  516. Looks like Fred will get a weak 3rd place in SC. Place your bets on him dropping out later tonight, or tomorrow.

  517. Their chances would be better with a McCain or possibly a Thompson. To tell you the truth, the candidate the democrats fear the most is Thompson, with McCain being the second most feared. My uncle is Director of Research for Governor Granholm and He has told me as much. So, you caught it Crimethink? I did that as a subtle jab to mock Huckabee’s supposed mandate from God as the nominee.

  518. You did it with your uncle too!

  519. Would President McCain immediately start bombing Iran or would he go on his own personal Rambo-style mission first?

  520. Does anyone else think Rombot is a thief? Appearantly, he stole his wife from some guy in high school, and he stole Obama’s message of change. The dude creeps me out.

  521. Clinton won 51% of the vote. That is the first time I can remember of a Clinton winning over 50% of the electorate.

  522. You did it with your uncle too!

    Yeah, curious, may be it is just “he” for God and he’s trying to make a subtle point here.

  523. Cesar,

    Every other candidate has responded with platitudes about “the government” or “we” “need to defend the country” or “need to listen to terrorists,” but Romney has taken these opportunities to go out of his way to talk specifically about Presidential power in a way that the other Republicans have not. The difference has jumped out at me.

    There is no “restrain executive power” Romney. I don’t know much else about Mitt Romney genuinely believes, but I am very, very confident that he has an expansive view of executive power even by the standards of the 2008 Republican Party.

  524. I don’t think there has been a more agressive-talking candidate than Romney.

  525. Damn…Rudy running at 2.02%…

  526. His tough talk, I could put down to muscle flexing for the meatheads, but he actually lays out a consistent vision that goes beyond posing Mr. Tough Guy. He says things about executive power he doesn’t have to say in order to look like Mr. Tough Guy.

  527. I am very, very confident that he has an expansive view of executive power even by the standards of the 2008 Republican Party.

    Damn. That’s like saying “he has an expansive view of executive power even by the standards of the 46BC Caesarian faction”.

  528. “Damn…Rudy running at 2.02%…”

    yeah, and last year he was even leading in the polls in SC.

    Also in Nevada, even just back in November he polled first with almost 30%. Tonight he gets 4%.

  529. Adamness | January 19, 2008, 8:13pm | #

    Looks like Fred will get a weak 3rd place in SC. Place your bets on him dropping out later tonight, or tomorrow.

    Think he’ll mention small animals?

    Wail, when the FLIES are buzzin’ round the POSSUM…

    God I hate that shit. DC lobbyist/lawyer turned Senator turned movie star, and he drops that cornpone act on us.

  530. Speaking with other Paul volunteers across Clark county reflected that we had a strong second place in a number of large districts. Based on my observations I’d be very surprised if we don’t come in with second in Nevada. I’ll be extremely suspicious if McCain beats, or even comes in a close 3rd.

    Great, now Vijay is jumping on the vote fraud bandwagon, since Ron Paul barely beat McCain.

  531. David, Paul actually carried Nye County by 16 votes. I wonder if that’s the first county he’s won so far.

  532. Jefferson County in Iowa.

  533. Joe-

    I hope you equally hate John Edward’s “NOW I GREUUUUUUW UUUUUP IN A MIIYYYL TAAAUUWN” shit.

  534. “I grew up in a mill town” is a perfectly normal thing for a person to say.

    “When the flies start buzzin ’round the hound dog’s ears…” is not.

  535. It’s not really the accent, Cesar.

  536. Thompson and Giuliani could drop out and endorse McCain. But no way in hell those of us who are Rudy or Fred fans will follow.

    95% of all Thompson and Giuliani supporters will go to Romney.

  537. joe,

    I think Cesar’s referring to the fact that Edwards uses his “My father worked in a mill” line for the same reason Thompson uses that honky-talk; to make him seem like he’s just a regular working class Southern guy like yourself, when in fact he went from one of the Two Americas to the other and never looked back.

  538. Don’t forget oil at $10 a barrel– in part thanks to George Soros currency play killing demand in SE Asia.

    Can George Soros do that again please?

    I am under the impression that he is, and/or has been, except this time with the US dollar vice Thai Baht.

  539. Maybe that’s it, crimethink: Edwards isn’t actually trying to come across as an ordinary Southern guy, but as a success story with humble roots.

    While Thompson really is trying to give people the impression that he is, at the time he’s giving the speech, an ordinary fella with a beat-up truck, who you might see whittling in front of the general store.

  540. Joe-

    Thompson also went from a poor southern boy to a Hollywood star. His roots were very, very humble.

  541. Sure, Cesar, but that’s not the difference I was talking about.

    Edwards is making a claim about where he comes from, while Thompson is implicitly making a claim about who he is today.

  542. Edwards doesn’t pretend he drives around in the truck from the ZZ Topp video and talk about ‘possums in his daily life.

  543. 95% of all Thompson and Giuliani supporters will go to Romney.

    You know, with all the petty lies that you have offered in the past, I have decded to change my mind and kind of trust your amazing political acumen on this because you have a nose for this kind of thing. You also have the lowman’s type of nose for petty political asshole. Pathetic little ass-sniffer you are, Eric.

  544. (WRONG: He’s won Nye County.

    Ain’t Nye county where either Art Bell or George Norry (sp?) broadcast their shows?

  545. Nye county is where Art Bell vroadcasts from, it’s also the county of Yucca Mountain.

  546. You also have the lowman’s type of nose for petty political asshole. Pathetic little ass-sniffer you are, Eric.

    Hmm. Ya know – if he Eric would comb his hair a bit differently and trim that cheesy mustache, he could pass for a youthful version of Adolf Hitler, himself. Der Fuhrer (or should that be der weiner hole?)

  547. UPDATE: WRONG AGAIN: Ron Paul has won 3 counties.

    Jefferson County, IA
    Richmond County, NH
    Nye County, NV

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.