Hillary Clinton

Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread (and Liveblogging)

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I've got a bunch of friends in Iowa reporting out the race, and the storylines I've heard from them all are:

– Hillary Clinton has the smartest people in the Democratic primary working for her, and if it wasn't for them she'd already be out of this.
– Ron Paul's organization is tight and energetic, and they're turning out all their caucusgoers.
– Fred Thompson's campaign events have been small and sluggish.
– Barack Obama headed off an Edwards surge as some of the second-tier candidates told their supporters to back him as their second choices. (In the Democratic race, if your candidate doesn't get 15 percent of the room you caucus for someone else.)
– Democratic excitement is palpable. Republican excitement is non-existent.

Based on that, my incredibly safe predictions:

Democrats (final votes, including second choices)

Barack Obama 32
John Edwards 30
Hillary Clinton 27
Joe Biden 5
Bill Richardson 4
The others 2

Republicans

Mitt Romney 31
Mike Huckabee 29
Ron Paul 13
John McCain 11
Fred Thompson 9
Rudy Giuliani 5
The others 4

Of course, no one is watching all the candidates. It's all about the storylines for Obama, Clinton, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. The only way Paul breaks into the headlines is if he beats the allegedly surging McCain and Thompson, although a McCain loss would be brushed off and a Thompson loss portrayed as the end of his campaign. (Reporters seem to be craving a McCain win in New Hampshire, for the amazing comeback story as much as anything.)

Post your predictions or gossip in the comments. I'll be at Murphy's Taproom in Manchester watching the caucues with a very optimistic Paul crowd, and will be liveblogging from there.

UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!

8:30: Nestled in at the bar and talking to Paulites who are restlessly catching CNN harp on the Democratic race. They liked an "entrance poll" that showed Hillary up: "She's the easiest to beat."

8:32: This must be the only Republican party that's tuned in to CNN and not Fox News. I'm listening more to the exit poll questions than the miniscule precinct results. Huge female turnout sounds good for Clinton while the fact that voters prioritized "change" over "experience" sounds good for Obama… and the low percentage of independent voters sounds bad for Obama. I'm not hearing as much about the GOP…

8:38: A lot of derision here at the way CNN is leaving a big white pie piece in the chart where the Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Duncan Hunter vote should be.

8:48: More data, finally, and Paul's at 10 percent: A lot of relieved cheers at this party. But CNN is still showing that blank piece. As to the Democrats, Kos reports that the early counties are rural John Edwards counties, which bodes really poorly for him—he's in a dead heat as the Clinton and Obama counties start to come in.

8:50: From the party: "We can come in eleventy-millionth place as long as we beat Giuliani!" They're screaming and clapping whenever a county result shows Paul clobbering Rudy.

8:56: CNN projects a Huckabee victory. There are some quiet boos and yells of "Huuuckster!"

9:04: There's gloating about Romney's defeat ("All those millions! His poor kids!") and a few cheers when Obama pulls ahead of Hillary and Edwards. I ask a "hard-right Republican" named Pete why he cheered. "I just want the crime family out of there," he says, referring to the Clintons. "Obama's a hard lefty but as long as we don't have the Clintons running we can have a battle of ideas. We can talk about the Constitution."

9:20: If the Democratic results keep up—Clinton literally tied with Edwards but only margin-of-error tied with Obama—it doesn't exactly look like a three way tie. It looks like a clear Obama win.

9:27: And NBC News calls for Obama. This is better for him than it is for Huckabee—Hillary and Edwards are so bunched up he can declare his victory before they can claim second place.

9:36: I'm uncomfortable predicting too much when the GOP race for third is so close, but I think McCain has little to worry about even if he slips behind Ron Paul. Romney is utterly humiliated: I'm going to have to check out one of his New Hampshire events to see how many advance men it takes to prop up his corpse. This is the expectation game. It doesn't matter that Romney doubled McCain's vote, it mattered that McCain was able to strut onstage and make fun of his effort to "buy the election."

9:39: People who won't be vice president: Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa whose mighty operation was enough to win the Democratic frontrunner third place. Also Ted Strickland, the governor of Ohio who trashed the Iowa caucuses to a reporter merely days ago. People who might be: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, for handing their votes to Obama. (So did Kucinich but his nomination as VP is less likely, let's say.)

9:46: Huge catcalls for Giuliani when he arrives on CNN (his reward for losing to Ron Paul?): A voice behind me blares "Fuck you, fucker!" And there's some grumbling about how Wolf Blitzer referred to Paul's 7,800 votes as "seven thousand" and Giuliani's 2,700 as "almost three thousand."

9:55: The Paul party is sort of starting to disperse. A key hope of the volunteers is dying tonight: The hope that there were thousands of voters who the polls were missing but would turn out for Paul. He's only winning as many votes as the polls suggested he would. So he's set to keep scoring high single digits or low double digits unless something incredible happens—maybe Newt Gingrich enters the race, quits, and endorses Paul on the way out.

9:58: Just as I typed that I joined a conversation on Paul's percentage, already in progress. "I was hoping for 15, 17 percent" said a Pittsburgh volunteer named Bill. Frank, a campaign worker who came here with Operation Live Free or Die, is more optimistic: "That much of the Republican vote, that's Perot territory." Dun-dun-dun-dunnnnn.

10:04: I'm by no means the first person to say this, but here's the key difference between the parties tonight. Half of Democrats look at this picture and feel neutral; half of them look at it and feel elated. Half of Republicans look at his picture and feel worried; one-quarter feel enraged; one-quarter are happy, but it's that bitter, Kurt Russell dropping the truck on the bad guy in Breakdown kind of happy. If they weren't Christians they'd be flipping the bird.

10:24: No surprise, John Edwards tried to steal some Obama thunder by proclaiming "a victory over the status quo." He cheers up the crowd by telling stories of poor people who have it worse then them.

10:30: Laughs, jeers and catcalls when Hillary Clinton zooms onto the screen to concede. One Paulite grabs a Hillary sign and jumps up and down in front of the TV: "Hillary! Hillary! She's the easiest to beat!" The room picks it up. "Ron Paul can beat her!" "Ron Paul can beat anybody!" There's a whole lot of joy (and some pointing) at the sad Bill Clinton next to Hillary… when's the last time he had to stand on a concession stage?

10:33: Did Clinton promise to leave no child behind?

10:41: Like Stephen Spruiell reported today, the lefty netroots have made a long, curious march away from Barack Obama to John Edwards. There was plenty of enthusiasm for Obama in late 2006 and early 2007, it tempered over the course of the year, and in the last weeks Paul Krugman has led a pile-on of Obama for (among other things) not covering everyone in his health care plan, attacking trial lawyers, and arguing that Gore and Kerry had been too divisive. But since Edwards has narrowly moved past Hillary in Iowa I don't think there'll be a rush back to Obama. Edwards won his biggest-ever margin in the Daily Kos straw poll yesterday.


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  1. The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will be…

    The New England Patriots!

  2. Mitt Romney 31
    Mike Huckabee 29
    Ron Paul 13

    Agreed, except Paul will be slightly higher than 13 (anxious, fingers crossed)

  3. The New England Patriots!

    Hey, and the Boston Celtics!

  4. Which one of the talking heads is least annoying? It’s been a while since I’ve seen cable news and Chris Mathews seems like a pompous blowhard

  5. Huck: 29
    Mitt: 27
    Paul: 17

  6. CNN has been sucking up to Paul. Even Michelle Malkin was nice to him on her blog. Seriously. Time of reckoning.

  7. The real winner of the Iowa caucus is the television networks. This is primetime!!!

  8. Da Bears: 72%
    Mitt Romney: 9%
    John McCain: 8%
    Ron Paul: 5%
    Mike Huckabee: 5%
    Rudy Guiliani: 2%

    But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to caucus with if they don’t get 15%?

    Who, I ask you?

  9. What does the media see so appealing about Bloomberg?

  10. A third place finish for Paul would be pretty amazing.

    Its death for Huckabee if he doesn’t win Iowa, same for Edwards. Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie.

    Hillary Clinton is good no matter what happens, unless she finishes in fourth or lower. Which just isn’t happening.

  11. And the Boston Bruins! Oh, wait. Never mind.

  12. Joe, that question reminds me of the traditional story where there’s an election for group president or some such, and no one’s allowed to vote for himself. Everyone wants to be elected, so they don’t want to strengthen their rivals’ hands, and so vote for someone who couldn’t possibly win. But everyone else does the same thing, so the least popular guy wins…

  13. I think that Ron Paul could take second, since a larger proportion of his supporters will actually show up.

    -jcr

  14. But who will the other candidates tell their supporters to caucus with if they don’t get 15%?

    joe, IIRC, only the Democrats have this braindead rule that less than 15% forces you to vote for someone else.

  15. Bingo,

    He’s the most bipartisanly centristic example of centrist bipartisanship from the center, and not from the extremes, ever to centristically…

    aw, screw it. He’s rich and he seems like the sort of person who would throw good cocktail hours and invite the powerful people from both parties.

  16. I’m sorry, prolefeed, the correct answer is “Da Bears.”

  17. jcr: That’s a very real possibility. Especially if enthusiasm for the GOP is as low as Dave says it is.

  18. Dear Duncan Hunter:

    Please find a way to beat Rudy Giuliani. I will share Dondero’s sweet, sweet tears with you if you do.

    That is all.

    Fluffy

  19. Cesar,

    I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.

    And I think the only outcome that would matter among the Democrats would be somebody coming in a distant, rather than close, third.

  20. The winner of the Iowa Caucuses will be…

    The New England Patriots!

    Ha. Good one, joe.

  21. I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.

    Given the expected Thompson drop out–who was the leading Southern candidates–,that could be entirely true. But remember how Dean was supposed to clean up in New England despite losing Iowa? And Huckabee doesn’t even have the money Dean did. No victories, a front loaded schedule, and lack of money could sap his momentum without an early victory.

  22. I think that Ron Paul could take second, …

    “If he works real hard and applies himself…he could go another foot!”

  23. Off I go to caucus! You guys can all be jealous now.

  24. I can confirm one supporter of Dr. Paul in the state of Iowa. My brother told me he was going to support him in Washington township.

    Other than that I have no real idea how things will turn out.

  25. Cesar,

    But remember how Dean was supposed to clean up in New England despite losing Iowa?

    No. Not at all. John Kerry was going to win New Hampshire (the first) and Massachusetts (the biggest) even before he was projected to win Iowa. That’s my recollection, anyway. Maybe I’ve just forgotten.

    No victories, a front loaded schedule, and lack of money could sap his momentum without an early victory. I’d say that Super-Duper Tuesday is SO front-loaded that it all but guarantees a big split.

  26. Considering how the Paul campaign so consistently exceeded my expectations all of last year, put me down for a stunning Ron Paul victory in Iowa tonight.

    Horrible, horrible optimism…

  27. If Huckabee wins, everyone’s going to be gunning for him. And there’s a lot to shoot at, even if you’re not libertarian.

  28. The Newshour just had a run down of all the candidates. Although they gushed and analyzed McCain and Thompson along with the front runners, they seemed to forget Dr. Paul is in the race.

  29. Tax Hike Mike will not be able to stand the scrutiny of being the front runner.

  30. On the Democratic side I expect them to draw up to three times as many people as the Republicans, and I’d say if Obama can turn out independents he will win otherwise it will be Edwards…Hillary will be in 3rd for sure.

  31. “Its death for Huckabee if he doesn’t win Iowa, same for Edwards. Edwards is done even if theres basically a three-way tie.” Shit, joe beat me. I think Huck only has to do 1-3 in Iowa. He’ll do poorly in NH but SC looks like his cup of tea.

    Romney should be strong everywhere since he has, at some time in his career, said something to please everyone. And he is largely self-financing his campaign (this is supposed to show his “electability” in the eyes of fools like National Review I guess). That guy is just a terrible, terrible human being imo.

    Does anyone think Rudy could do poorly in Iowa, NH and SC and depend on kicking ass in FL, NY and CA (which have lots o’ delegates)? Polls show it as a possibility, but I imagine more bad news (losing the first three big time) will make his support dwindle in the big states by the time the elections get there…

  32. I disagree. If Huckabee can keep himself in the top tier, he could clean up in the South.

    While anything is possible, I think this is incorrect. The South is highly religious, but also pretty denominational, so merely propping up a preacher isn’t a surefire strategy. Southern Baptists don’t necessarily hang with the charismatics who don’t grok the hardshells. Religion is a lot more fractious than race. Or naked jingoism disguised as patriotism, which is where the GOP thinks it will gather the most Southern votes. Thus the Party’s shrugs over Romney and Giuliani.

  33. Here are my predictions:

    Democrats

    1) Obama

    2) Clinton

    3) Edwards

    All will be so close the media will call it a three-way tie. Edwards either gets a clue and drops out or his campaign begins its descent into Duncan Hunter territory.

    Republicans:

    1) Romney

    2) Huckabee

    3) McCain

    4) Paul (Sorry, playing it safe here)

  34. Rudy is finished, his tactics were flawed and he won’t be able to recover(he certainly won’t win in the first three and by then the damage is done).

  35. I don’t think Rudy can win New York.

    Republicans in New York are economic conservatives, first and foremost. The “Reagan Democrat” types and moderates in New York are Democrats. Heck, Hillary won Republican upstate New York!

    In one-party states and cities, the public will sometimes pick a minority-party candidate for the executive branch because they want somebody to check and slow down the majority party, even as they strongly side with the basic philosophy of that majority party. This is Romney in MA and Rudy in NYC. This doesn’t demonstrate either an ability to appeal to the majority party, or strong support from the minority-party stalwarts.

  36. Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they hang with the DLC?

    At this point, since I want a Dem to win, I actually think while Hillary and Obama are both just terrible national candidates that Hillary is the less terrible (though a worse person and bound to be a worse leader imo).

    I should be rooting for Romney since I think he’s the weaker of the GOP frontrunners, but that man is the Anti-Christ, plain and simple.

  37. Also, regarding the Independents. If they turn out to make a difference in the Dem caucuses it will only hurt Paul. If the Dem turnout turns out to be 3X the Repubs as James suggests, Paul is probably looking at fourth. Or fifth.

    That’s a pure wild-ass guess, but I don’t think the ground-game in Iowa is as good as it seems to be in New Hampshire, according to the reports I’ve read about it.

    I still wish Richardson was more of a factor.

  38. Dems:

    Obama 33

    Edwards 31

    Clinton 24

    Repubs:

    Huckster 30

    Mittens 28

    Paul 13

    McCain 12

  39. Joe,

    Da Bears: 72%
    Mitt Romney: 9%
    John McCain: 8%
    Ron Paul: 5%
    Mike Huckabee: 5%
    Rudy Guiliani: 2%

    Thanks, I just blew beer outta my nose. You owe me a new keyboard.

    And your forgot one possibility. What if da good Dr. changes his name to Dit-ka?

  40. If Edwards doesn’t do well in Iowa and drops, I’d expect his supporters to go mostly to Obama.

  41. My 3 wishes for the night:
    -Good beer.
    -Paul beats McCain and Giuliani.
    -Either Romney or Hillary suffers a humiliating defeat.

    Make me proud, Iowa.

  42. Cesar-where do you see Edwards supporters going once he realizes its futile and drops out? Are they Anybody But Clinton or will they hang with the DLC?

    They go over to Obama. Edwards big shtick is his extreme economic illiteracy opposition to international trade.

    Clinton, to her credit, doesn’t hold fantasies about textile mills and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans again in 2009.

  43. “-Either Romney or Hillary suffers a humiliating defeat.”

    Can’t we have both???

  44. Yeah, baby! Obama and Romney FTW! Harvard Law School versus . . . THAT’S RIGHT, HARVARD LAW SCHOOL!

    Just hand over the whole government now, and I’ll allow you to kiss my tennis racket.

  45. Rudy’s campaign is already dead, he just doesn’t know it yet. His fatal error was when he lied in that debate last year:

    “That’s an extraordinary statement as someone who lived through the attack of Sept. 11, that we invited the attack because we were attacking Iraq. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that before and I’ve heard some pretty absurd explanations for Sept. 11. I would ask the congressman to withdraw that comment and tell us that he didn’t really mean that.”

    The fact that the man would use such rank and obvious bullshit as his front line of defense is all too telling. People don’t like liars. Stick a fork in him, he’s done.

  46. Hey does anyone know how I can vote in the primaries in Nevada?

    I am in Egypt right now. Would I have to fly home? Can I vote at the embassy?

  47. Dorky Ron Paul doesn’t make it to third place.

  48. On the other hand…Paul is the only Republican with enthusiasm on his side. Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of excitement among those in the Party of Bush.

  49. Edward,
    Even if all the criticisms you have of Ron Paul, and of libertarians are dead on. Your continued presence here would still be a indication of some sort of mental imbalance.

  50. Only the Dems do the 15% threshold, so that definitly benefits the Doctor.

  51. Clinton, to her credit, doesn’t hold fantasies about textile mills and steelworks suddenly employing thousands of Americans again in 2009.

    Oh, come on, surely we can jump start this economy again if we’ll just pass Smooth Hawley II!

  52. Crap, I have nothing insightful to offer. Oh well:

    Ron Paul: 100%

    All Others: Bollucks

    I need to go pick up some beer…

  53. Some guy in Iowa keeps staring at the CNN camera, all creepy lookin’

  54. Already beat ya to the beer Taktix!

  55. Ugggghhhhh “don’t know who they’re going to vote for yet” at the entrance polls.

  56. Republican crowds have been only a fraction of those of the Democratic candidates, so maybe he benefits from the lack of excitement among those in the Party of Bush

    Certainly possible, but I don’t think so. Paul is bringing in new people to the Republican party, not tapping a silent majority within the party.

    Most of this is blind speculation, because I don’t think we have anything like an accurate pulse on the body politic. I think this election season will show current polling methods to be dangerously inaccurate. I could be wrong–Iowa will be a good test case. But if Iowa proves the pollsters to be full of shit, all bets are off and guesswork becomes the new black.

  57. I told my dad, who is a Republican, but is barely following the horserace at this point, that Ron Paul will come in at worse 3rd in Iowa. I hate looking bad to my dad, so I’m pretty sure I’m right.

  58. Enthusiasm for Ron Paul = Shit

  59. The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.

  60. This is the most retarded shit I have ever seen.

  61. Edward,

    In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul campaign.

  62. The whole process on the D side seems so sloppy and prone to lots of error. Just my observation.

    Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in general.

  63. Edward,

    Trolling against Ron Paul = hairs on the shit

    Mommy must be proud of you.

  64. I used to live in Iowa and caucused for the Dems, it was interesting, and fun for a political junkie like me. I actually prefer it to the Primary where you just walk in and out.

  65. Sloppy and prone to error=the Democratic Party in general.

    That is copletely unfair!

  66. I hate looking bad to my dad, so I’m pretty sure I’m right.

    Right now I am afraid looking bad to Fox News who would have a field day telling us all how Paul and his followers were doomed from the beginning. And of course that they knew it all along. God, please, don’t let that happen!

  67. BTW, Intrade has it Huckabee, Romney, and the Field (aka Paul). In that order.

  68. surely we can jump start this economy again if we’ll just pass Smooth Hawley II!

    President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax. This is going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.

  69. The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.

    Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator says “Ron Paul is in this race for the duration.”

  70. In honor of your snark, I hereby pledge another $20 to the Ron Paul campaign.

    Excellent idea! Every time Dondero or Edward poke fun at Paul or his followers, each one of us would donate 5-100$ (depending on the level of the trolling) to Paul. That ought to teach them both (and hopefully stop them).

  71. Even though I am a Dem, I might vote for Paul in the primaries just to wipe that damn smirk off of Hannity’s face.

  72. If Ron Paul takes fourth or fifth, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward will rejoice at “the defeat of the Paultards.”

    If Ron Paul takes third, Wonkette, Dondero, and Edward will rejoice at “the defeat of the Paultards.”

  73. @ kwais:

    Already pointed out in a previous thread that Edward needs a shrink. Pretty pathetic, when he can prompt a former lurker to jump on board to bash him.

  74. I’m sorry, prolefeed, the correct answer is “Da Bears.”

    I don’t know about that. Even the mighty Ditka declined to run against Obama for the Senate back in ’04 (and yes, the Illinois GOP was courting him quite strongly).

  75. Edward says “Dorky Ron Paul doesn’t make it to third place.”

    Nothing has given me more hope than that, all day. Da do Ron Run Run, da do Ron Run!

  76. What if da good Dr. changes his name to Dit-ka?

    Then he’d be Dr. No Dit-ka. Probably not the best career move.

  77. President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax. This is going to be a nice Smooth Hawley.

    Ach! I hope H&R never institutes post editing … the jokes about typos are just too good to give up.

  78. 2% reporting in and things are looking dire for Paul!!!!!! omg!!!

  79. Tonight is the night Alen Keys shocks the world!!

  80. Bingo- How do you know? Where?

  81. joe wrote:

    That is copletely unfair!

    Sloppy and prone to error=joe

  82. Entrance polls show Clinton leading slightly over Obama and Edwards…according to CNN.

  83. The CNN people just laid out a scenario with Paul coming in fourth in Iowa and third in New Hamphshire.

    Final shot of Ron Paul looking good at a podium, and the narrator says “Ron Paul is in this race for the duration.”

    I saw that too, joe.
    I’ve been watching news coverage for the past few weeks, and only today, TODAY, has the MSM even so much discussed Paul as though he will get REAL votes, and without condescending smirks on their faces.

  84. Bingo,

    It’s looking pretty bad for Giuliani and Romney, too — they’re at 0%. I predict Duncan Hunter shocks everyone and wins it.

  85. What in the world are the number underneath the candidates’ names? The number of people who “voted”? 20 or something so far and that is 2%?

  86. Mine is conveniently clickable for any other people that want to check it πŸ˜‰

  87. From the New York Times Caucus page:

    7:20 p.m. | Rockin’ Out Lucky us! Ron Paul is having a party right next to our work space. His space is completely empty, except for the bartender and a couple of cops. But there’s a live band warming up. That means a throbbing beat is vibrating these thin hotel partitions. Our whole collective head is vibrating too. Is this Mr. Paul’s revenge on the MSM?

  88. Whoa! On CNN they had the first GOP numbers in, and there was a big blank spot, like about 12-13%

    Are they just going to pretend Paul doesn’t exist?

  89. What does Iowa have 800 people all in all?

  90. Why do none of the reporting counties show anybody receiving more than 0%?

  91. Never mind, just found a few.

  92. Wait a minute…according to that Politico site, 37 votes is 4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low… πŸ˜‰

  93. Reports are coming in…

    Looks good for Huckabee… Big turnout from rural areas, and Religious Conservatives.

    That’s not good for Economic Conservatives (and libertarians) supporting Romney.

    Let’s hope things get better for Mitt as the big cities start reporting in.

  94. My prediction:

    Dems:

    Edwards: 32
    Obama: 30
    Clinton: 29

    Reps:

    Huckabee: 31
    Romney: 29
    Paul: 14
    McCain: 12

  95. I don’t post here that often. I am compelled to post b/c I want to see a strong showing by Ron Paul not b/c of dick spits like Edward and Dondero, but b/c I want to see what the blathering gasbags on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc. reaction will be.

    Regards,
    TDL

  96. Wait a minute…according to that Politico site, 37 votes is 4% of the vote for the GOP? Turnout must be really low… πŸ˜‰

    πŸ˜‰ Yes! Hopefully all the young people will brave the weather for Da Man!

  97. Dondero,

    I thought Rudy wanted Mitt’s Flip-Flop Express to lose in IA.

    Or are you changing allegiance?

  98. Paul at ~13% in Des Moines County

  99. Fuck you CNN! They’re leaving a good 15% or so off of the pie chart.

    Any better suggestions?

  100. Which country is Des Moines?

  101. If you roll the mouse over the individual counties, the percentages for Paul don’t look so bad. He was up to 27% in Iowa County (I think that’s where U of Iowa is).

  102. crimethink,
    He knows Giuliani doesn’t have a prayer in Iowa and can’t bring himself to felate the Huckster.

  103. Des Moines is in Polk County.

    Here’s a county map.

  104. Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?

  105. So far not looking good for populist leftwing candidate Ron Paul.

    He’s not in the Top Four.

    Fox is reporting McCain in 4th at 12%, but nothing beyond that.

    Huck, Romney and then Thompson lead.

  106. You know something, if you had told us one year ago that we were gonna come in third in Iowa, we woulda given anything for that.

    And you know something? You know something? Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Larkin, we’re goin’ to South Carolina, and Oklahoma, and Arizona!, and NORTH DAKOTA, and NEW MEXICO, AND WE’RE GOING TO CALIFORNIA, AND TEXAS, AND NEW YORK, AND WE’RE GOING TO SOUTH DAKOTA, ANOREGON, AND WASHINGTON, AND MICHIGAN!! AND THEN WE’RE GOING TO WASHINGTON DC TO TAKEBACKTHEWHITEHOUSE!!!!!!!

    YEEEEAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

  107. RP is in second in Polk Co., waaaayyy behind Huckabee, though (40% – 17%).

  108. President Hilary to taxpayers: Just bend over and relax.…Bill will be along to take care of you in a minute…

  109. Lower right Ali.

    These are probably all the farmhouses reporting in, the larger venues will take longer to count.

  110. Pop quiz!

    Who is watching the coverage on Fox News?

  111. Polk County- RP 2nd (with 2% only ;-| )

  112. Crimethink, I’m with Rudy til the end. But am a big supporter of Mitt and Fred, as well.

    I’ve got bunches of libertarian friends in the Mitt Romney campaign. We’ve sort of struck a deal.

    Last couple weeks both the Romney campaign and the Rudy campaign have gotten friendlier. We both recognize that both our candidates are strong Economic Conservatives, and that we must head off the Huck Monster!!

  113. Taylor county has 40% reporting but non of the candidates receiving any votes. What only cows live there or what?

    They must be using the Diebold machines! Those people at the RP meetup were right!

  114. Yeah Graphite!
    You tell’em!

  115. Cows can’t vote? If they could, who would they vote for? I predict Mr. G.

  116. Crimethink, I’m with Rudy til the end.

    Might not be very long.

  117. Shiiiit!

    Fox is reporting a “huge number of evangelicals coming out to vote.”

    Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against the Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!

    We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!

  118. Awesome, the Wolfster is pimping HD televisions.

  119. Eric,
    No shit. Too bad you threw your weight, not saying you are fat, behind a man who couldn’t be bothered to run in Iowa.

  120. Kwix, Iowa is hardcore religious conservative territory. Has always been.

    How could they have ever liked a libertarian-leaning Pro-Choice Economic Conservative like Rudy?

    New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon on the other hand???

    Prime Rudy Territory.

  121. So Edwards is going to protect Unions from special interest groups… what?

  122. Eric: What about NH? πŸ˜‰

  123. Dondero,

    Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson have already peaked. If you would deny the Huck Monster, you must forsake your pride and embrace the rLOVEution. Our Leader is ruthlessly just, but also bounteously merciful.

  124. Libertarians, Fiscal Cons, we will now need to unite against the Huck Monster for New Hampshire, SC, and Florida!

    We Must!! stop the Huck Monster, and the Religious Right Economically liberal Populist Huck supporters!!

    That’s right! Join us with Paul against Huckabee!

  125. Prime Rudy Territory.

    If you’re so confident, why are you flailing around like a walrus bitten by a shark? Why have you befriended your main competitor in Mitt Romney?

  126. 15% in, Paul at 11%…

  127. OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!

  128. OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!

    What in the world does that mean!?!?

  129. Tonight may be a Shock & Awe for Fiscal Cons & Libertarians. So, some good may come out of it.

    Perhaps it will wake us all up, and force us to combine our efforts and unite against the most unlibertarian of all candidates Mike Huckabee.

    Fred Thompson supporters…

    Rudy Giuliani supporters…

    Mitt Romney supporters…

    We need to stop the Huck Monster!!!

  130. OMG, CNN is Professor-and-Marianne-ing Ron Paul!!!!!!!

    What in the world does that mean!?!?

    Sounds like a Gilligan’s Island Reference… beyond that…?

  131. I still believe that if cows were enfranchised in Iowa, they’d vote Hill and Guilliani.

  132. I didn’t expect Thompson would be this strong. I thought he was basically on suicide watch.

  133. Fox just announced that Huckabee has won the Iowa Caucus.

    A genuinely sad day for liberty.

  134. Sounds like a Gilligan’s Island Reference… beyond that…?

    Yes, please. I have no idea what Gilligan is (must some sort of weirdo sci-fi stuff –but really this is not the time). Sorry!

  135. Looks like Paul and McCain are neck in neck, slightly behind Thompson. With 85% left to count, third place is still a significant possibility. Romney is waaaaaaay behind Huck.

  136. Great, people that think the earth was created 6,000 years ago get to pick a leader. Goddamn.

  137. The total Fiscal Conservative/libertarian vote is 40%.

    Romney at 23%

    Thompson at 14%

    Giuliani at 3%

    That’s much larger than Huckabee’s 33% margin.

    Time to unite against the Huck Monster fellow Fiscal Cons/libertarians!!

  138. Donderooo,
    You have obviously never lived in Florida. The only “social liberals” like your beloved Giuliani are Yankee retires who vote Democrat. I doubt his song will play well in the rural West either. Indeed, if there is a strong Huck showing down the road, I fully expect Florida to go to him.

    Southern Fried Baptists!

  139. If we’re only 15% in, why are people so conclusive? I have no TV where I am now, would someone please explain how Fox is able to report the (final?) result so early?

  140. Mitt Romney is on FoxNews right now and the look on his face…. priceless

  141. Yes Ali, it is over.

    Where you been?

    You know the Reason H&R blog is the place to be for all such events. You went AWOL on your H&R bretheren, and missed all the fun.

    Shame, shame.

  142. Eric,

    Your point would be stronger if you add the 11% from you-know-who…come on, do it. DO IT!

  143. Paul at 11%
    lol @ u

  144. This just in: Iowa’s slack-jawed hicks pick Turd Sandwich over Giant Douche. Dondero despondent.

  145. I recall certain networks calling it for Gore some years back…

  146. Kwix, I am a graduate of Florida State University.

    I lived in Florida for 15 years. Was stationed there in the Navy – Jax.

    My parents live in the Villages.

    I’m Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North Florida, like the back of my hand.

    Florida is Crist Country: Fiscally Conservative/Socially Tolerant!

  147. Ali,

    Assuming that the precincts that are reporting are representative of the state (ie, similar proportion of urban/rural, etc), Huck’s 15% lead is going to be nearly imposible for Romney to surmount.

  148. The original lyrics to the Gilligan’s island song was “..and the rest!” Leaving the Professor and Marianne out of the song altogether.

  149. Republican Party is fucked if Huckabee is nominated.

  150. Eric,

    No one gives a fuck.

    Sincerely,
    Everyone

  151. On the Politico tracking site, doesn’t it look like Ron Paul is sticking out his tongue in his photo?

  152. Thank you, Taktix.

  153. Crimethink, I’m with Rudy til the end. But am a big supporter of Mitt and Fred, as well.

    Shorter Dondero:

    I’ll sucky-sucky, but anal and scat are not off the table, yo.

    Say, Eric Dondero, how’s your campaign going to supplant Ron Paul in the TX14 district?

  154. NBC just called it for Huck.

  155. Chris Matthews is already trashing Huckabee right after hes been projected the winner. The media has built up Huckabee, now they’re going to have fun tearing him down.

  156. Just went up to 25% reporting…Huck went down, Romney went up, Thompson went down, McCain unchanged, Paul a smidgen down.

  157. According to Kos, Clinton in 3rd with about a third reporting… nice.

  158. Is this really a surprise? A big government religious candidate won in a state that loves its agricultural subsidies.

  159. According to Kos, Clinton in 3rd with about a third reporting… nice.

    No result can hurt Clinton unless its a really distant third. She can spin it anyway she wants to make it look good otherwise.

  160. Donderoooo,
    FSU, good party school. Kellum Hall, first stop.

    Crist country. Riiiight. Sorry, I haven’t lived there since Jeb Bush was Gov. My bad.

    It must have been my imagination that there were more churches than gas stations and that our gun shows might as well have functioned as KKK meetings. But then again, I didn’t stay in the college town, nor the Yankee retirement communities as you apparently did.

    I know North Florida, lived there for 12 years myself, and Religious Conservative it is. Leon County may not be but everything to the west is.

  161. Wow. The Politico site is definitely the best. Great graphics. Up-to-date detailed info.

    Good job Politico.

    And yes, it does look like Ron Paul is sticking his tongue out.

  162. RNC chairman doesn’t answer the question, has canned answers. This is even more retarded than the Dem’s cattle drive to vote.

  163. Yeah, Clinton is 3rd…and she’s about 2% behind Obama in the lead. It’s not over by any stretch of the imagination.

  164. I’m Florida to the core. Know the State, particularly North Florida, like the back of my hand.

    Prove it

    Where is Munson Slough? Two Egg?

  165. crimethink:

    The University of Iowa is in Johnson County.

  166. Well, the GOP is set for 1st and 2nd.

    3rd, 4th, and 5th is gonna be more interesting.

    Looks like Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel couldn’t even muster 15% at any of the caucuses…

  167. UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!

    Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?

  168. That blank spot just doubled in size on CNN, nearly a quarter is blank.

  169. Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever guessed that a few months ago?

  170. zero,

    Oops. I assumed Iowa City was in Iowa County. Shows what happens when you AssUMe…

  171. I really hope Mitt Romney takes Iowa. That way, he can hire me and I can afford to pay for hookers on K Street again!

  172. Anyone want to chip in for some Czech language lessons?

  173. Cesar,

    If Romney pulls NH out of the fire, he might be OK. Given how close it looks like the Dems will be, most indeps are going to be voting in the Dem primary, so McCain (and Paul) are going to be hurt by that.

  174. UPDATE: Liveblogging, commence!

    Why do I sense a Patrick Stewart vocal presence here?

    Liveblogging, engage!

  175. Oooo, Barack is pulling away. He’s up by 3% now over Edwards and Clinton.

  176. Bingo,
    Thinking about relocating, eh?

  177. crimethink:

    Easy mistake to make. I know because I graduated from the U of I. I still don’t see any results from the county my family lives in, Jackson.

  178. CNN just projected Guiliani beating Paul.

    Old Media is dead. Long live the Internets!

  179. Since Huckabee has won, its time to quote one of my personal heroes, Barry Goldwater:

    When you say ‘radical Right’ today, I think of these moneymaking ventures by fellows like Pat Robertson and others who are trying to take the Republican party away from the Republican party and make a religious organization out of it. If that ever happens, kiss politics good-bye.”

  180. I’m a bit nerved at the edge Thompson has currently.

  181. Do you want to know why I donated $2.3k to Ron Paul’s campaign? I did this 90% for a slim chance to see that smarmy fuck George Stephanopoulos get his lunch eaten. Edward James Olmos wannabe bad-skinned fucker.

  182. WTF?! Giuliani just jumped from 3% to 11%?!

    Diebold machines! πŸ˜‰

  183. WTF, CNN?!? What is up with the white space? It’s just bizarre.

  184. Its pretty much Huckabee vs. McCain now. Who would have ever guessed that a few months ago?

    I wouldn’t put too much on the Iowa caucus. Huckabee is a soft target.

    The Wikipedia entry for the Iowa caucuses has a floating Obama JPEG on top of it. That made me laugh.

  185. Why did Dean say that Scooter Libby was pardoned? His sentence was commuted, but he certainly wasn’t pardoned.

  186. With 41% reporting, Huckabee dropped way down, Romney unchanged, Thompson dropped a little, McCain unchanged, Paul drops a little, and Giuliani rockets ahead of Paul!

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

  187. Giuliani just got over 3500 votes in fucking Linn county. What’s in Linn county?

  188. How the hell did Giuliani make that jump? Boggles my mind.

  189. Earlier the top 4 republicans = 85%, and Paul was at 11% (25% of precincts reporting); now the top 4 = 77% (41% reporting) — did Paul gain ground? Thompson only 13% and McCain 12%…

  190. Eric knows Fla., believe me.

    Two Egg, isn’t that where they banned 1984 from the library back in the ’80s?

  191. Chancellor,

    Now that Giuliani is ahead of Paul, they’ll show his vote. Bank it.

  192. Politico shows Giuliani pulling ahead of Paul. This puts Paul at 6th. πŸ™

    How the heck did Thompson get 3rd?!

  193. I swear Rudy just went from like 1% to 10%. It’s something I would compare to bullshit.

  194. Cedar Rapids, IA’s largest city, is in Linn Co. That’s still awfully fishy. Is there a Mafia presence in CR?

  195. Math error? I can’t see where Guiliani would have picked up 4000 votes.

  196. Reinmoose:

    Cedar Rapids is in Linn County. It is a large city for Iowa.

  197. Giuliani got 50% of the vote in Cedar Rapids? No way. No, frickin, way.

  198. Are there a lot of dead people in Linn county?

  199. it must be a mathematical error… 50+%?

    Also, MSNBC just called Iowa for Obama, and Chris Matthews is freaking out

  200. Mr. Election Inspector, that’s a nice cornfield you’ve got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it…

  201. How can Dems all gather in a corner and count heads and manage to report that faster than the Republican’s straw poll? Is the GOP run by idiots?

  202. MSNBC says Obama has won it for the Dems.

  203. st4rbux:

    Could be. It might also be the fumes from the ADM alcohol plant.

  204. Holy Shit! Chris Wallace of Fox News and Ed Rollins of the Huckabee campaign just had a major shouting match on live air.

  205. Rudy is at 50% in Linn County, others are under 15%.

    Something’s rotten in Denmark…

  206. Huckabee’s lead is down to 8%. Not that I care.

  207. Please, please no conspiracy theories about vote stealing ok?

  208. CNN called it for Obama…

  209. The republicans are the kings of the rigged elections. Ron Paul might just suffer from the establishments choke-hold on our democratic process. Ghouliani jumping 10% all of the sudden seems fishy. Also, its funny how it took Ron Paul’s friction with Fox News to finally awaken some Republicans to the disgusting bias from that network. I pray that Paul wins it all but then again the goons in D.C. will not allow the people to take back their liberty so easily.

  210. Yes! I hope the Huckster likes second place!!! Us Mainstream Libertarians need jobs too!!! Blowjobs, that is!

  211. Tom Walls,
    Do you still plan to vote for Ron Paul?

  212. I said I’d only vote Democrat if Obama and Huckabee get the nominations, just to keep that “smirking hick” out of the White House. But I *really* don’t want to have to do it!

  213. Fox has declared this thing too soon. The numbers are changing dramatically.

    Giuliani is now at 10.6%.

    I don’t believe that number. And I’m a Rudy guy. If he gets over 10% that’s amazing, considering he didn’t even hardly campaign in Iowa.

    I think we’ve got another hour and a half of returns coming in before we know how this thing is going to turn out.

  214. Cesar,

    I’m not going to say the 5-letter F-word, but it’s pretty bizarre that Rudy would get 50% in one county and only 3% in the rest of the state. Cedar Rapids isn’t THAT different from the rest of IA.

  215. CNN lady just said “hard fart” instead of hard fought.”

    Huh huh huh huh huh….

  216. If the figure its wrong, I’m going to chalk it up (in good faith) to mechanical and human error rather than vote stealing.

  217. Well, Romney is in trouble.

  218. I am back and things aren’t looking good. Are they?

  219. @chico: I’m from Illinois. My experience says Democrats are the kings of rigged elections (not that it’s relevant to the situation at hand)

  220. There’s a faux Eric Dondero poster here. It’s probably Paul Frankel again, alias Disinter, alias “Pauli Cannoli.”

    The silly comment two above is obviously not mine.

    Again, here’s my cell phone number to confirm any and all posts from me – 832-896-9505.

  221. I can easily believe that Rudy beat us in Linn County.

    I can possibly believe that Rudy beat Romney and Huckabee in Linn County.

    I can’t, and don’t, believe that Rudy got 50% of the vote in Linn County. I just don’t. I am assuming for the moment that it’s a misreport and will be corrected later, but if it stands up it simply isn’t credible as an honest number.

  222. There are a few websites wondering just what the hell happened in Linn County.

  223. According to the totals, Rudy got 3500 votes in Linn Co., and 1400 in the rest of the state! BS.

  224. If it was Cedar Rapids where Rudy got that vote, than I believe it.

    That’s where Giuliani’s Iowa Campaign Chair fmr. Congressman Jim Nussle is from.

    I expect that 10% number to drop though as more Counties come in.

    But still, not bad for Rudy.

  225. Now that Giuliani is ahead of Paul, they’ll show his vote. Bank it.

    Yeah, but only 41% of the precincts have reported, and Rudy’s massive gain seems to have come from only one county.

    Still a good chance Paul can pull ahead.

  226. Can I call to confirm how your campaign for TX14 is going?

  227. Quick, can someone please confirm that Cedar Rapids is Linn County?

  228. Only 57% of Linn County is reporting. A bug Rudy caucus probably just turned in their votes at once…

  229. Ali,

    Rudy being ahead of Paul is a mirage. There was a mix-up of some sort *wink* in Linn Co.

    And even if there wasn’t, he’s going to shrink back down as other counties report.

  230. A big…

    Preview! Damn You!

  231. My “campaign” for Congress? Great. I endorsed Chris Peden back in July. And two weeks ago, the other declared candidate Andy Mann, endorsed Peden, as well.

    I expect Peden to do quite well against Ron Paul.

    But thanks for asking.

  232. I’m not the biggest Obama fan, but I’m glad he stuck it to Hillary Clinton tonight with her smug “inevitability” and lifetime of plotting to win the presidency.

  233. Taktix,

    A votebomb? πŸ˜‰

  234. crimethink- I hope you’re right. If nothing else, I was hoping to taunt Eric a little.

  235. I think Paul’s back into 5th…

  236. re: rigged elections; can we all just agree that the politically entrenched are the masters of rigging, and not those polling at 10%?

  237. thankfully Rudy just dropped back down to 4 percent

  238. I agree with Crimethink. This is a momentary blip for my guy Rudy.

    But it still shows that there’s at least one part of Iowa – the more Moderate Republican area of Cedar Rapids, where he does quite well.

    That tells us New Jersey, Conn, PA, Oregon, Washington State, Florida, Texas and the big enchillada of California will be PRIME Territory for Rudy Giuliani!

  239. Guiliani just lost 5k votes, back to 4%

  240. Eric: Consider it confirmed. I lived there many years ago.

  241. Aha! It was an error. No way Rudy got all those votes…

  242. No no, you were pretty emphatic about running for Paul’s seat. You were going to save the union, IIRC, and perhaps wear tights.

    Say, I heard Peden had $360 in his campaign chest. Are you going to send him some of your Ron Paul paycheck money? You know, to salve your conscience?

  243. 65% 5th (within 2% of the McThompson’s).

  244. Cedar Rapids is Linn County.

  245. Dondero,

    And your post just before mine is wrong. Unless of course those 5000 votes come back.

  246. Paul needs 4th place. With 65 percent reporting, he needs to make up a few percentage points…

  247. Don’t sweat it. My big man Rudy, a true fiscal conservative and sex machine, will save Iowa. He’ll fight for all of us Mainstream Libertarians!!!!

    Hey, does anyone else wanna help me get hired by the Rudy campaign? I’ve been doing lots of gay porn for money now, and I could really use the scratch. This dick is not gonna suck itself.

  248. sowwy ewic

  249. Ah, Giuliani back down to 4% now…at CNN.com

  250. Heh, Giuliani just lost 3300 votes in Linn Co.!

    That’s what happens when you spam the caucuses…

    Unfortunately, the Maverick just pulled further ahead of the Champion of the Constitution.

  251. Rudy’s down to 4% — Linn County was a mistake.

  252. That’s Linn County.

  253. Aha! It was an error. No way Rudy got all those votes…

    Ha ha ha!

  254. Linn County corrected their reporting error. Giuliani is back down to 4%.

    I can’t be too happy about it because Paul’s vote total sucks dog dick. McCain is a fucking zombie and Thompson’s not much better and Paul can’t catch those fucking guys?

    At least Fuckabee will lose the general in a landslide.

  255. That was a rather big mistake.

  256. If Paul is only 3% behind the ‘surging’/comeback-kid McCain, I’m OK with that. That should be a story in itself.

  257. >>Rho says: Can I call to confirm how your campaign for TX14 is going?

    just chekc out the Campaign Website

  258. I’m looking at the CBS news results page right now, and I’m seeing Giuliani down at 4%. Is that a glitch, or did he really bomb tonight?

    -jcr

  259. McCain is a fucking zombie and Thompson’s not much better and Paul can’t catch those fucking guys?

    Huckabee has 33%.

    33%.

    Put things in context.

  260. Unfortunately, the Maverick just pulled further ahead of the Champion of the Constitution.

    Yeah, but Paul is still holding at 10%. If he can stay in the double-digits, that will at least demonstrate he’s doing better than the polls would indicate….

  261. FYI, for those that care, Des Moines is Iowa’s largest city. Not Cedar Rapids (which is, yes, in Linn County. From my college days at U of Iowa, I recall Cedar Rapids reaking thanks to the pet food and cereal production).

    Take heart that we’re working hard for Dr. Paul to win Santa Cruz county.

  262. If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop out.

    There. I said it.

  263. I’m never buying corn again, do you hear me Iowa? Never again!

  264. The silly comment two above is obviously not mine.

    Uhh, yeah. I know we are smart enough to figure this out, are you? Give you a hint, hover over the name. See how it says gayboys.com. Yeah, that’s what we like to call a “dead giveaway”.

  265. If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop out.

    There. I said it.

    Why?

  266. RP has to get ~18% in the remaining precincts to catch McCain. That’s gonna be tough.

    The “good” news is that it doesn’t matter as far as delegates go…Huckabee’s going to take all of them no matter what, and RP isn’t as desperate for money as the others are.

  267. Bingo,
    You don’t believe in the power of ethanol? It’s biofuel man, bio fuel.

  268. Again, here’s my cell phone number to confirm any and all posts from me – 832-896-9505.

    oh don’t worry, we’ll be sure to pass it on.

  269. Bingo –
    I’ll go in on those Czech lessons with you

  270. Because he’s just wasting his time and everyone else’s time.

    If you come in 5th in Iowa, I don’t want to get any emails asking for $23 million bucks. To spend on what? Coming in 5th?

  271. Kwix: the only ethanol I want comes in a bottle

  272. CR used to be the biggest, didn’t it?

    According to Wikipedia, Des Moines grew from ~200000 in 2000 to ~535000 today?! Did they actually become more populated, or annex the surrounding towns a la Indianapolis?

  273. If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop out.

    Well, if Giuliani come in 6th, what should he do?

  274. I cannot believe that provincial douchebag is coming in first. Romney has already said his congrats to Fuckabee. Ugh! HUCKABEE? Are you serious???

  275. Fluffy,

    You’re a fickle one, aren’t you? Iowa is one of the worst states for RP…addicted to federal money and massively social conservative.

  276. If Paul comes in 5th in Iowa he should immediately drop out.

    No he shouldn’t. Of course he’s not going to do well in Iowa. It was to be expected. Let’s see how New Hampshire goes first. Since that state is definitely more libertarian-leaning than Iowa, one should expect a better showing. If Paul can’t place third or better, then that really doesn’t bode well for the campaign.

  277. Huck winning Iowa is not a big deal (recall Robertson in 88– he went nowhere (aka Iowa) from there). What is a big deal is Romney loosing. I just hope Paul would come in third somehow.

  278. I was never counting on Iowa anyway, too many theocrats and corn farmers, i’m waiting to see what happens in NH.

  279. White Chavez and Pantsuit Panderer are tied for 30%.

  280. There’s still a lot of precincts to report. And Iowa is a backwards farm state. And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6 elections won the Iowa Caucuses…

  281. He has way too much money to drop out.

    Paul didn’t make a push for Iowa, perhaps a good thing considering Huckabee’s natural base. It would have been wasted money, as Mitt surely now knows.

  282. If you come in 5th in Iowa, I don’t want to get any emails asking for $23 million bucks. To spend on what? Coming in 5th?

    As I recall, Iowa was never considered a “low-hanging fruit” by the Ron Paul campaign, money or no money. The Lew Rockwellians were considering the option that Dr. Paul would bring home the bacon there, but outside of them it was considered a outlier. NH and SC are the Paul campaign’s targets, as I understand it.

    I do agree with you to an extent, in that I’m horribly disappointed that Paul couldn’t meet or beat Thompson. The Fred!wagon is kind of the Mason-Dixon line for losers.

  283. Fluffy,
    Have you sent the man any money?

    Besides, Iowa is very subsidy heavy and RP is the only man in the race calling subsidies for what they are, robbing the American Citizen for special interests. Hell, if RP doesn’t come in last in Iowa (or Kansas, Illinois and Nebraska) I’d be really surprised.

  284. And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6 elections won the Iowa Caucuses…

    Bush did in 2000.

  285. Taktix,

    Bush definitely won the 2000 Iowa caucuses.

  286. Now, if Paul comes in 5th in Alaska, THEN he should drop out.

  287. Well Cesar, Bush and Huckabee are both pandering hicks that fit quite well in that backwards atmosphere. Fucking Iowa.

  288. But I heard something like no one who finished below 3rd has won the nomination since 1972.

  289. If he comes in 5th in NH, that’s big trouble. I’m not saying he should drop out, but that’ll be way worse than this.

  290. And no one who has won the presidency in the last like 6 elections won the Iowa Caucuses…

    Bush did in 2000.

    Well, that certainly tells you a lot about Iowa, doesn’t it?

  291. crimethink,

    I dont know what place he got, but Clinton got something like 3% in Iowa in 1992. But, Harkin was running so no one bothered to compete against him, so maybe 3% was third place.

  292. Bingo, Reinmoose:

    My girlfriend just confirmed for me that Czech is close to Slovak, her native language. So I’m in on those Czech lessons.

  293. Ron Paul the Fourth-Place (if that) Joke

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

    Send him more money, you fucking moron twits.

  294. I think this quote from CNN sums it up nicely:

    For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum really picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives — an important voting bloc in Iowa — began to move his way.

    Meanwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California will likely need strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 — “Super Tuesday,” when 24 states hold their primaries — no matter where he places in the early contests.

  295. i agree crimethink…Paul needs to place AT LEAST second in NH. WTF? If he can’t win there then we have no hope.

  296. In my heart I was hoping for more than 10% and beating McCain, but if Paul stays in double digits that will be fine by me. Some of the the interesting crosstabs from the exit poll is that Paul won independents with 33% and those who were angry with the Bush administration he won that group with 54%

  297. Yeah! Fuck Ron Paul!!! The Paultards are real pissed now!!! Since Dr. No(t gonna win Iowa) is a loser, he can donate some money to me!!! Give me a good severance package for all the work I did for him!!!

    Let’s be honest guys; with my pedophile mustache, I have a lot of trouble picking up chicks and I need the money for a hooker. This dick is not gonna suck itself.

  298. Cafferty on CNN: Obama won in the whitest state in the country.

  299. Edward-

    You supported Richardson, and I think hes behind Biden. Don’t throw stones in glass houses.

  300. February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)

  301. The worst thing about this (aside from never eating corn again) is that fucking FOX is going to act vindicated over excluding Paul from the debates.

  302. Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can’t find anything so far.

  303. Chris Dodd just lept all the way up to 0.05%!

  304. Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can’t find anything so far.

    They didn’t exist until 1972.

  305. i agree crimethink…Paul needs to place AT LEAST second in NH. WTF? If he can’t win there then we have no hope.

    NH is wonky. McCain won it before, he can again. And Romney is reasonably popular for the same reason the mayor of New York City is popular in Poughkeepsie.

    That said, Paul’s running a different kind of campaign that’s reliant on momentum, not one-shot wins. Huckabee needed this win, not Paul. If Huckabee can translate this into further gains, then it’s good for him. Otherwise it’s Pat Robertson all over again.

  306. Mr. Chartreuse,
    where are those crosstabs you’re looking at?

  307. “Bush and Huckabee are both pandering hicks…”

    No one who graduates from Andover, Yale, and Harvard is a hick, maybe they play one for political gain, but Bush isn’t a real hick, Texan, or southerner.

    Regards,
    TDL

  308. In my heart I was hoping for more than 10% and beating McCain, but if Paul stays in double digits that will be fine by me.

    Sure. That’s better than the polls predicted, and as Kwix pointed out, his popularity is ascending. Considering he got a late start campaigning, he’s not doing badly. He should stay in until Super Tuesday at least, no matter what.

  309. Oh, I live in Florida, and an ad for a DVD bible just came on…

  310. Apparently he managed to get 15% of a caucus in Pottawatamie County in SW Iowa! Here comes the Dodd Express!!!!

  311. Taktix,

    That was on regular ol’ CNN.

  312. They didn’t exist until 1972.

    Ah…color me stupid then. *D-oh!*

    Okay….does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa PRIMARIES in 1964?

  313. I don’t understand the results.

    In my tiny, rural precinct the results were

    Huckabee 14
    Romney 11
    Paul 9
    McCain 3
    Guilliani 1
    Thompson 0

    I had high hopes until I came home and turned on the TV.

  314. Dennis Kucinich with zero percentage….

    great, now msnbc is showing a riveting clip on presidential hopeful’s better halves. its all about character people.

  315. David Weigel wrote: “And there’s some grumbling about how Wolf Blitzer referred to Paul’s 7,800 votes as ‘seven thousand’ and Giuliani’s 2,700 as ‘almost three thousand.'”

    I noticed the same thing. One more reason Blitzer can burn in hell.

  316. Here’s the history from Wikipedia:

    Democrats

    * January 19, 2004 – John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
    * January 24, 2000 – Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
    * February 12, 1996 – Bill Clinton (unopposed)
    * February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
    * February 8, 1988 – Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
    * February 20, 1984 – Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
    * January 21, 1980 – Jimmy Carter (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
    * January 19, 1976 – “Uncommitted” (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
    * January 24, 1972 – “Uncommitted” (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[9]

    Republicans

    * 2004- George W. Bush (unopposed)
    * 2000- George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
    * 1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
    * 1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
    * 1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
    * 1984- Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
    * 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
    * 1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan

  317. Crimethink – Paul Simon later said he wished he’d dropped out after Iowa and let his votes go to Gephardt, who could have actually won the 1988 election (unlike Dukakis). If Thompson keeps third, stays in the race, and ends up nominating Huck, I imagine he’ll be writing identical memoirs in 10 years…

  318. Its worth noting the system was so different in ’64 Goldwater didn’t even win any primaries at all. It was a brokered convention, and he led a revolt of early 60s conservatives (today they would be called libertarians) to secure the nomination against the establishment wing of the Republican Party.

  319. Anderson Cooper and his wacky magic pie chart hologram. Thank Zeus I watched this stoned…

  320. In my precinct (north bettendorf) it was:

    romney – 113
    huck – 66
    mccain – 40
    paul – 22
    thompson – 16
    guiliani 14

  321. Hey 10%+ Is pretty awesome for a candidate polling within the margin of error in Iowa just 2 months ago.

    What if Huckabee and Romney got more votes, such that 10% 3rd place. Is that really better? The % vote count for Paul is high, the movement is off the ground, libertarianism is off the ropes – and that is really what matters to me anyway.

    Don’t get down anyone – RP is doing great by any reasonable standards. Who would have thought that Ron Paul – an Anti-War, bring all the troops home, end the IRS, 9/11=blowback candidate could get the support he got…He is beating RG!

    RP is winning imo.

  322. Anyone else notice the difference between the way the Dems count their votes and the way the Repubs count theirs? One goes by percents, cutoffs and second rounds and second choices, while the other is just a straight tally.

  323. Thank Zeus I watched this stoned…

    *jealous*

  324. Cesar | January 3, 2008, 9:57pm | #

    Does anyone know where Barry Goldwater placed in the Iowa Caucuses back in 1964? I can’t find anything so far.

    They didn’t exist until 1972.

    Not exactly true. They have existed for over a century but it wasn’t until 1972 that they became “First in the Nation” and took on the significance they have today.

    As for Goldwater, he is one of three Republian candidates who lost in New Hampshire and went on to gain the national Nomination.

  325. So, depending on how you count “uncommitted”, and having seen Brewster’s Millions, I count it as a place, then Clinton finished 4th (or 3rd for those who only count “people”) in 1992.

  326. Double digits is definitely a victory for Paul. Paul, Huckabee, Thompson and (to a lesser degree) McCain are outperforming polls; Romney and Guiliani are underperforming.

    Regardless of where he places, Paul beating Guiliani is sweet.

  327. The DVD Bible ad came on here in my Salt Lake City hotel room, too. The guy’s voice reminds me of David Alan Grier.

  328. there’s a good side to this…
    John found it.

    I would also like to nominate –
    John McCain coming in behind Thompson means he doesn’t get as much good press coming in to NH

  329. I don’t think Uncommitted should count as a place (and I don’t understand why it’s even an allowed vote). That year’s caucus was pretty unreliable anyway, given that there was a candidate from Iowa in the race.

  330. Never let it be said I’m not humble. The polls in Iowa seemed to be not terribly out of line with results.

    Good things and bad things:

    Good: watch the polls, and use them as a tool. Or the Paul campaign can start spending that scratch on GOTV tactics.

    Bad: Ron Paul is running, at best, at the Libertarian Party’s wettest dreams, i.e. 10%. That’s not good. In fact it’s very bad, as a “spoiler” candidates can, at best, expect to get only crumbs and scraps, and Ron Paul doesn’t seem interested in consolation prizes.

  331. I hope Paul does not fall below 10%.

  332. Taktix wrote: “Anderson Cooper and his wacky magic pie chart hologram.”

    I keep expecting him to scream, “I am Beowulf!!!”

  333. Bill Bennett: “Republican field broadens, there are five people in this race.”

  334. Really: the game has *just* begun. It’s only one state.

  335. that was not my post above.

  336. Paul won 29% of independents!

  337. Eric Dondero, was it your post when you declared you were so offended by Ron Paul that you would replace him as TX14’s Representative? Hmm?

  338. RP finished third in Johnson County, which only has 75% reporting. Most of the counties that have already fully reported are ones where he did awful.

    ::crosses fingers::

  339. Ali: that’s actually pretty damn impressive and gives me hope for NH πŸ˜€

  340. He has 26% in Allamakee county, which is only 73% reported.

  341. Ali, did he beat McCain among independents?

  342. He beat them all in independents. See above link.

  343. crimethink,

    Independents:
    Paul 29%
    McCain 23
    Romney 19
    Huckabee 17
    Thompson 8
    Guiliani 1

  344. 9.9%, why the hell is he going down. Damn you Huckabee. May God damn you! Oh, sorry, you’re the preacher.

  345. Paul’s at 9.9% Damn.

  346. Paul dropped below 10%

  347. Edwards is telling sob stories to a “Steelworkers for Edwards” crowd … even if my guy didn’t win I can always favor the sweet, sweet defeat of a protectionist fuckwit like him.

  348. John Edwards is on tv, and as usually he makes me want to vomit with his demagougic pseudo-populist bullshit.

    I’m just imagining how much longer it will be until he says “Every man a king, but no one wears a crown.”

  349. Angry at Bush administration:
    Paul 54%
    McCain 13
    Romney 10
    Huckabee 10
    Thompson 9
    Guiliani 1
    Hunter 1

  350. Paul also came within 1% of Huck in the vital “Pakistan doesn’t matter” bloc, 38% – 37%.

  351. Cesar- why the sad story he’s telling now? And it’s taking soooooo loooong…

  352. The Indy/Angry numbers suggest that Guiliani cannot win the general.

    Okay, duh.

  353. WTF!!!
    40% of voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Huckabee!?
    Are you F’ing KIDDING me?!

  354. Cesar, he brought up the mine!

  355. Oh fuck, how I don’t want fucking John Edwards to be president.

  356. Edwards is telling sob stories to a “Steelworkers for Edwards” crowd … even if my guy didn’t win I can always favor the sweet, sweet defeat of a protectionist fuckwit like him.

    Hear hear. The only people lower than dominionist evangelical Christians in my book are economically illiterate protectionists.

  357. Huckabee kicked ass in the GOP women’s vote.

  358. I think Edwards is genuine with his beliefs, and I think a TON of people like what he says. I’ve no idea why he isn’t more popular among democrats.

  359. Yeah, Edwards, I’m 26 years old and I really wish I could be working in a steel mill everyday like my grandparents instead of an air-conditioned office in front of a computer! Or not.

  360. robc,

    translation: they want their husbands to lose weight

  361. Hmm… I didn’t know emergency rooms offered kemo.

  362. ::robc | January 3, 2008, 10:19pm | #
    Huckabee kicked ass in the GOP women’s vote.:::

    Chicks dig a man who smiles easy and talks smooth.

  363. I agree with McBoob. I believe he really believes what he discusses. I wish less people were so cynical about his views.

  364. Well, at least he beat Giuliani….

    But considering the state went in a big way for Huckabee, I can’t say that I see it as representative of most of the country. Right away that tells you Iowa isn’t exactly libertarian country, or anyone else’s, except maybe idiots….

  365. Cesar:

    for what it’s worth Huckabee is economically illiterate…

    but he plays the guitar and Jesus talks to him so he’s got my vote!

  366. Shit! McCain just moved into third! Mother f—–!

  367. I’m honing my earlier prediction. The Hillary campaign will deny any coordination when the “Barack Hussein Obama was my coke dealer” woman comes forward on the eve of the SC Primary.

    They will panic and not wait until early February.

  368. But considering the state went in a big way for Huckabee, I can’t say that I see it as representative of most of the country. Right away that tells you Iowa isn’t exactly libertarian country, or anyone else’s, except maybe idiots….

    QTMFT…

  369. Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?

  370. Evidently “change” is the big winner tonight. The homeless vote could be more important than prior election years.

  371. I know Edwards believes in what he says, that’s what worries me about him.

  372. ::Hear hear. The only people lower than dominionist evangelical Christians in my book are economically illiterate protectionists.::

    They judge the economy through anecdotes. They watch Lou Dobbs. They see “outsourcing” and fear it. What they don’t realize is that what they want, what they vote for, will simply increase corruption at the top and misery among the common man.

  373. Muscatine Co. (home of Davenport) has only 12% of precincts reporting, and Paul has 12%.

  374. Adamness,

    Nice timing – you posted right after Fred fell to 4th.

  375. ::Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?::

    He didn’t. looks like Mr. Surge is in third.

  376. Hillaryyyyyyyy!!!!!! CNN!

  377. Cesar:

    for what it’s worth Huckabee is economically illiterate…

    Yeah, hes John Edwards except born-again. Which makes him just plain evil. Like Palpatine or something.

    I’ll vote even for Hilldog before him.

  378. You’re not alone Adamness. I don’t know how the lazy Thompson got so far ahead either. It boggles my mind, but you just have to remember the huge bloc of social conservatives in Iowa and his record against abortion and social issues.

  379. Ron Paul is dropping below 10% now.

    Other news, McCain has pulled ahead of Thompson by a hair.

  380. Hillary’s voice just shattered the mirror in my hotel room.

  381. Seriously guys. Nobody has addressed how Fred Thompson GOT 3RD PLACE. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? He was supposed to do badly and drop out. WTF?! 3RD? FRED GOT 3RD?! What the heck?

    One word: Sanjaya?

  382. How could Hillary possibly be happy with what happened? How is it possibly a “great night” for her? How in the hell is she an agent of “change” and why, oh why, would anyone vote for her?

  383. If Thompson gets fourth will he drop out?

  384. crimethink,
    where are you getting your percentages from?

  385. ::You’re not alone Adamness. I don’t know how the lazy Thompson got so far ahead either. It boggles my mind, but you just have to remember the huge bloc of social conservatives in Iowa and his record against abortion and social issues.:::

    AND HE HAS A RED PICKUP TRUCK!

  386. Huckabee’s lead is slowly but surely shrinking. I don’t think there’s any way Mitt can catch him, but it’s not going to be as big a victory as it looked earlier.

  387. I’m sadly not surprised by the Thompson finish…MSM has been pumping him like crazy the last 3 or 4 days…

  388. @ 78%: The McThompons are at 13% a piece. Paul at 10%. Not bad, was hoping for a miracle to take Paul across the McThompson’s.

    I am new to this, but is it possible that the GOP is delay good Paul results? Or that is it? I amstill hoping for some of those 20%.

  389. McLovin,

    You can mouse over each county individually at this page.

  390. I think Hillary’s pleased with the Democratic vs. Republican turnout. And it is a pretty big difference. Things look pretty bleak for the GOP tonight. Ideal time to nominate a more-of-the-same nobody like Rudy McRompson!

  391. You could look at this as a victory for Mainstream libertarians. Libertarian-leaner Fred Thompson beats extremist Ron Paul, 13 to 9%.

  392. I like how Clinton says that she stands for change as she’s backed by Bill Clinton and the mummified corpse of Madeline Albright.

  393. Is there any way Reason can make this blog so I can block certain people from my view? In threads with this many posts, it would really help to block out the noise.

    Please, y’all genius programming folks, you’re my only hope.

  394. Limbaugh pushed Fred today.

  395. WTF!!!
    40% of voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Huckabee!?
    Are you F’ing KIDDING me?!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    thats the Iowa promise ring crowd. FUCK CORN.

  396. I don’t care what anyone says, I like Fred Thompson. Not as much as Paul, but hes my (distant) second choice.

  397. Fucking hell Dondero, is everyone but Paul a “mainstream libertarian” now?

  398. Obama’s pwned HRC and Edwards. At least has a conceptual understanding of the idea that the president’s powers should be limited.

    Hooter – Fred = Social Conservative. Also, I think he got a lot of the “ahhh… f*ck it” vote. Also, what SIV said.

  399. Romney is moving up a bit to 25.5%

  400. Andy_D: someone made a firefox plugin especially for that, I forget who though…

  401. Is there any way Reason can make this blog so I can block certain people from my view? In threads with this many posts, it would really help to block out the noise.

    Who do you mean? πŸ˜‰ I am sure I know who you’re talking about.

  402. Dondero,

    Considering Huckster got over a third of the vote, I don’t think you could see this as a victory for real or fake libertarians.

  403. Eric,

    Where’s Guiliani again? Did he stay above Hunter?

  404. @Earache Dildero

    If someone would give you a kick in the nuts, I’d consider that a victory for civil society….

  405. ::I don’t care what anyone says, I like Fred Thompson. Not as much as Paul, but hes my (distant) second choice.::

    I agree, if for no other reason than he refuses to play the game.

  406. I’m disappointed…was hoping for 3rd or 4th, but the worst part is that Paul will only get about what polls showed…takes the steam out of the arguments that traditional polls are missing hidden supporters, etc. or that the level of enthusiasm of his supporters will translate into over-representation at the polls…

  407. Fucking hell Shane! No!

    McCain, is most definitely not.

    There are three, and only three candidates worthy of Mainstream libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.

    McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist.

    Though, at least McCain is a War Hero. I’ll give him that.

  408. Eric Dondero,
    You are no true libertarian, but you are a true dick eater.

  409. I predict:

    D- Obama
    R- Huckabee

    Really hoping that Thompson at least beats McCain, but not holding breath.

  410. In general, I cant say I oppose a lazy man in the White House.

  411. I’m rarely moved by a politician’s speech… but Hillary’s non-concession speech is underwhelming as fuck. She is going down a laundry list of Democratic hot-button issues without any enthusiasm at all. Edwards at least seemed to care about something.

  412. You’re right Crimethink. The fake libertarian Ron Paul placed 5th with 9%.

    The libertarian-leaners, Rudy, Fred and Mitt, totaled 42%.

  413. You wonder why Eric would work for a statist for so long?

  414. Way to hedge there, Guy…

  415. I’d like to point out that if paul gets 10% in Iowa, then he reached the top of what the polls suggested he could get, and is more than 1.5 times higher than the poll results he was getting from just last week.

  416. Dondero, i get that you don’t like Paul, but statist? come on.

  417. Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by “Rudy” has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul organization.

  418. Shane,

    Apparently only a statist with fire Dondero.

  419. Chris Dodd is NOW dropping out of the race?
    Because he “doesn’t have the support.”

    No shit

  420. I eat big Horse Cock.

    Bomb all brown people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  421. ::I’m rarely moved by a politician’s speech… but Hillary’s non-concession speech is underwhelming as fuck. She is going down a laundry list of Democratic hot-button issues without any enthusiasm at all. Edwards at least seemed to care about something.::

    That’s because Edwards actually cares about other people.

  422. would fire.

    Gah.

  423. Thompson is just too old for me. Call me what you want, but Obama is my distant second choice. I really really hate to see more of the same of what we had in the last 7 years. Enough is enough. Plus, Obama is said to be Muslim πŸ˜‰

  424. To Hillary’s credit though, it was a good move to make her speech before it could be confirmed that she came in 3rd.

  425. Every time Bill Clinton does the lip-biting thing while scanning the crowd, it makes me a bit nauseous. Or jealous. I forget which.

  426. Dondero = mendacity

  427. What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free speech?

  428. I’m so glad I have Dondero’s cellphone number now, this is going to be fun. Never know when I might need to confirm its really him… what time is it out east when it’s 2AM Arizona time again?

  429. Chuck Norris!

  430. Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by “Rudy” has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul organization.

    Wow, I agree with Guy. Cheers!

  431. Reinmoose,

    But he has 1 state delegate. That isnt enought support for Dodd?

  432. I still haven’t found anything conservative about Guiliani let alone libertarian, the guy is socialist hawk who shows no respect for civil liberties. NYC knows that better than anyone.

  433. Chuck Norris is totally fingering that chick in the background.

  434. What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free speech?

    The kind who gets called libertarian by Newsweek, Atlantic Monthly, Time, US News and World Report, and Islamophobic Bedwetter Monthly.

  435. Wow, I agree with Guy. Cheers!

    Me too!

    All-

    Watch as this is probably Huck’s last time as a leader at anything.

  436. BTW, I was expecting a much stronger showing for Dr. Paul than has appeared sofar, especially from the gooey New Republic article I read just before leaving work at 1600.

    One question about the result: Lack of popularity or conspiracy?

  437. I don’t agree with Huckbee much, but damn, he is a great speaker.

  438. Well it looks like libertarian “extremist” Ron Paul beat Dondero’s “Mr. Libertarian” Giuliani… 10% to a truly pathetic 4% for the former national frontrunner.

    Of course, now that Rudy’s campaign has crashed and burned, all of a sudden Dondero considers every other Republican candidate to be either a libertarian or “libertarian-leaning.”

    Lets see… the number of Republican candidates other than Paul to support ending war on drugs: zero

    Number who oppose indefinitely imprisoning suspected “terrorists” without charge or trial: zilch

    Number who oppose torture: 0 again (McCain opposes in rhetoric only, as evidenced by his vote on the Military Commissions Act)

    If you don’t support habeas corpus, you’re not a libertarian. If you support torture, you’re not a libertarian. And if you think “political correctness” is a bigger issue than, say, the U.S. preemptively invading and occupying third world countries, then you are not a libertarian.

    Any questions?

  439. There are three, and only three candidates worthy of Mainstream libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.

    McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist.

    “Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority.”

    -Rudy Giuliani

  440. The kind who gets called libertarian by Newsweek, Atlantic Monthly, Time, US News and World Report, and Islamophobic Bedwetter Monthly.

    You forgot Der St?rmer.

  441. Don’t forget to take a drink when Huck mentions that he was once overweight!

  442. ***Dondero Sez:

    There are three, and only three candidates worthy of Mainstream libertarian support: Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.
    ***

    Hhahahahahahahaah, Mitt Romney, the socially tolerant mainstream libertarian and “federalist” who will lead us into a new age of the finger-wagging sadist who does not support medical marijuana. The same Mitt Romney that was the figure head for various court challenges to Massachusett’s fag marriage law (you know, the Will of the People of that commonwealth).

    Hahahaha, how’s that Congressional bid for TX-14 coming along? HAHAHAHAHA

    http://www.geocities.com/modern_cincinnatus

  443. Guy:

    Christian evangelicals.

  444. One question about the result: Lack of popularity or conspiracy?

    Well, look at the candidate who won, and you tell me.

    If this is representative of the rest of the country, we’re beyond fucked anyway.

  445. I’m so glad I have Dondero’s cellphone number now, this is going to be fun. Never know when I might need to confirm its really him… what time is it out east when it’s 2AM Arizona time again?

    Earlier.

  446. Where are the remaining 22%?

  447. Anybody saying that the RINO from NYC, the one who goes by “Rudy” has any drop of libertatian blood in him (much less Libertarian blood) needs to be fired from the Dr. Paul organization.
    Wow, I agree with Guy. Cheers!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Word. The only libertarian blood Rudy “9/11” Guliani would have on him is from my fist, when i break it over his stupid face.

    Im probably on some sort of list now, right?

    I

  448. I think Dondero leans crazy.

  449. The blonde behind Huckster is with Chuck Norris, no?

  450. PM,

    If this is representative of the rest of the country, we’re beyond fucked anyway.

    Please pay attention? The whole country did not vote. Iowa had a straw poll.

  451. excuse me, but did he just say “prairie-fire?”

  452. Charlie,

    Brown people aren’t real people so it’s okay to torture them, you dum fuck! Brown poeples suck, bomb ’em all!!!!!!

    Rudy is the only true libermainstreamtarian!!!!!

    Fuck heads!

  453. Did he just say “this country urines” or “yearns”?

  454. I can’t believe he just quoted Chesterton! Does he know the man’s beliefs at all?

  455. PM,

    If this is representative of the rest of the country, we’re beyond fucked anyway.

    Please pay attention? The whole Republic did not vote, just Iowa.

    Perhaps he will do the Dean scream thing and we won’t have to worry about him any more.

  456. I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird Christian spell on me.

    Good thing I have a high Dumbass Resistance.

  457. Huckabee talking to voters reminds me of drunk me trying to pick up chicks. He’s just trying so hard to be smooth that it hurts to watch.

  458. 85% in and Paul at 10%

  459. I agree with KJ. Huckabee is such a good speaker, you can’t discount him despite his past and the fact that he’s a “born-again John Edwards.” As I put it to a friend in an email, he’s Greg Stillson on steroids.

  460. As much as I may disagree with Eric, I wish whomever is impersonating him would stop and that the webmaster bans that IP.

  461. He just quoted the Founding Fathers, but I think he means the Founding Father!

  462. Giuliani: “9/11!”
    Huckabee: “Jesus!”
    Giuliani: “9/11!”
    Huckabee: “Jesus!”
    Giuliani: “9/11!”
    Huckabee: “Jesus!”

    ugh, i’m still in my early 20’s, can someone tell me when it’s time to stop giving a shit, cause think i’m almost there.

  463. Thompson jumped ahead of McCain.

  464. I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird Christian spell on me.

    Oh? I didn’t really notice. Must be that strong mental shield I developed from a young age to protect myself from my mom’s side of the family.

  465. Don’t call Eric’s cellphone. You do have better things to occupy your time, right?

  466. ::ugh, i’m still in my early 20’s, can someone tell me when it’s time to stop giving a shit, cause think i’m almost there.::

    Never.

  467. Ron Paul didn’t always lean Statist. He was quite good Pre-9/11 in the 1990s.

    And I should have said, Paul and McCain lean Statist, Huckabee is an ultra-Statist.

    Paul and McCain are 100 times better than the Huck Monster!! Sorry for the original slight Paul and McCain supporters. It was an insult on my part to put your guys in the same category as Huckabee. Again, sorry.

  468. I fell like Huckabee is attempting to cast some weird Christian spell on me.

    Just have another bowl. Because we all know that keeps Jesus away.

  469. “McCain, Paul and Huckabee lean statist.”

    And Dondero leans stupid (at least wrt Paul).

    Actually, he does more than lean. I think he might have fallen over a while back.

  470. Where is it saying Ron Paul is garnering 9%? Every website I look at is saying 10%.

  471. Hooter_McBoob- good answer. i think it’s time i hit the sack.

  472. Good thing I have a high Dumbass Resistance.

    That may be, but I don’t think you’ve faced a Dumbass of Huckabee’s level before.

  473. Please God, please, please, please, let Fred beat John McCain. Even if it’s just be .01%.

    That’s the only thing left on the excitement front now. 85% precincts reporting.

    Please let Fred beat McCain!!!

  474. What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free speech?

    One from New York. Your choices are named Hillary and Rudy.

  475. I was hoping for a 3rd place finish for Ron Paul.

    McCain’s surge and Thompson’s Limbaugh boosted
    dead-cat bounce killed any chance for it.

    Never fall for the Youth and un-polled, cellphone-only voters will magically appear crap. They vote in smaller numbers and hew to the same patterns as elder and land-line
    voters.

  476. Go to Politico.com. They have the best coverage.

    At 85% reporting Paul is precisely at 9.75%.

  477. What kind of libertarian is anti-gun and anti-free speech?

    Forgot the one from Arizona, sorry.

  478. Gene- It is 9.8%~10%

  479. Though I am no fan of Dondero, I have to agree with his assessment of Huckabee. I just watched his speech and literally felt the worst case of “heebie jeebies” I’ve had in many a year. The man frightens me and creeps me out more than a little.

  480. Wolf Blitzer: “Ron Paul emerging with relatively good numbers.”

  481. Dondero,

    In what way did Paul change after 9/11, that he went from being a libertarian to leaning statist?

    Surely you’re not saying that opposing the Iraq war and the Patriot act made him a statist, are you?

  482. Thompson is at 13.45%

    McCain is at 13.14%

    Super close. Goooooo Fred!!!

  483. What happened to the Dr. Paul uts? The Sen. Kerry uts are too old now, so it could not have been them sleeping in and forgetting to vote.

  484. Gene,

    Here.

    The commenters are rounding all fractions down when saying 9%, or actually I think they may have just said below 10% rather than 9%.

  485. Thanks for the tip to check out Politico.

  486. I am most certainly saying that Crimethink.

    You cannot be a libertarian and be a defacto supporter of Islamo-Fascism.

  487. You cannot be a libertarian and be a defacto supporter of Islamo-Fascism.

    Or a gun-grabbing Socialist.

  488. So Eric…though it is well established you are no supporter of Ron Paul (and that’s putting it lightly), how do you feel about the *movement* that his campaign seems to be creating? Do you think it’s a good thing or a bad thing? I’d be interested in hearing your opinion.

  489. “Andy_D: someone made a firefox plugin especially for that, I forget who though…”

    Thanks for the heads up. Bingo, or anyone else who can email me a link to such a plugin, would be greatly appreciated. This post, unlike my others, has my real email address… so please, send me a link to this Firefox feature… I can’t seem to find it.

    A tenuous thanks to anyone who does.

  490. I’d say, you can’t be libertarian and be anti-Second Amendment. But I’m one of those “crazy extremists”.

  491. OK. Watched enough of this. Time to finish the Simpsons Season 8 DVD.

  492. How many delegates in the country are there? RP so far getting 2 and Huck only 14.

  493. Wolf Blitzer: “Ron Paul emerging with relatively good numbers.”

    I agree! It might not be everything that I hoped for, but 10% in one of the more politically hostile environments for libertarians isn’t the worst news you could get….

  494. I am with Cesar on that one, if anybody had any doubts or gives-a-shits.

  495. Ali,

    ON the GOP side, it’s winner-take-all. So Huckster’s getting all of ’em.

  496. I think Gene Trosper might be Dondero’s imaginary friend…

  497. Dondero, you worthless cunt. On the basis of the argument you’re offering, you can’t be a libertarian unless you advocate immediate war with EVERY NON-LIBERTARIAN NATION on the globe, i.e. every other nation.

    You are a de facto Communism supporter if you don’t want immediate war with Cuba. I guess that means you aren’t a libertarian, no matter how many times you stood out in the rain or whatever sob story you tell.

  498. Winners

    Huckabee–But where does he go from here? The Improv?
    Thompson–still alive but at 2% in New Hampshire
    Paul–double figures after every single press report stated he couldn’t win–exceed his poll average by 40% in a hostile environment

    Losers

    Romney–bet the ranch on winning there
    McCain–badly wanted third place
    Giuliani–a humiliating 4%

    Also, rumor has it that Rudy is indeed broke.

    Big picture: none of the candidates up against Ron Paul is looking good nationally. This will be a war of attrition down to the convention. (Jim Ostrowski)

  499. ON the GOP side, it’s winner-take-all. So Huckster’s getting all of ’em.

    No, it isn’t. Reports are coming in that Paul has several delegates (which are voted on AFTER the caucus vote). Last number I heard was 56 and that was some time ago tonight.

  500. The Iraq war has been a major boon to Al Qaeda’s recruitment according to U.S. intelligence agencies. Meanwhile, the Bush administration’s financial support for the Pakistani dictator Musharraf, to the tune of about $10 billion, has allowed him to stifle political opposition while giving a wink and a nod to the resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda presence along the Pakistani border with Afghanistan.

    As the scholar Robert Pape has noted in his book Dying to Win, the presence of U.S. troops on the Arabian peninsula has provided the single greatest motivational tool for suicide terrorism. Ergo, anyone who supports the war in Iraq and/or a continued U.S. military presence in the Middle East is a de facto supporter of “Islamo-Fascism.”

  501. Cesar | January 3, 2008, 10:03pm | #
    Its worth noting the system was so different in ’64 Goldwater didn’t even win any primaries at all. It was a brokered convention, and he led a revolt of early 60s conservatives (today they would be called libertarians) to secure the nomination against the establishment wing of the Republican Party.

    Wrong. Goldwater won the Illinois, Texas, Indiana, Nebraska and California primaries. The last victory gave him the momentum to take the convention.

    In 1968, however, Humphrey won the Democratic nomination while hardly running in the primaries at all. I don’t think he carried any. Humphrey relied on non-primary states and the support of favorite-son candidates, and being the heir of LBJ.

  502. crimethink- thanks.

    Honestly, I am happy for Obama. If him or GOPers (minus Paul), I’d go with him. Sorry, enough war and scare mongering. Anyone with me?

  503. Um, folks, it appears that this big media “Dr. Paul movement” was a big media nothing. If all the hype were 10% correct he would have come in second at worst.

    I bought into it a bit, thinking he would at least beat McCain no matter who else McCain beat, but it turned out the same way it always turns out when one relies on the “youth” (ute) vote.

  504. Paul–double figures after every single press report stated he couldn’t win

    …and, lo and behold, he didn’t win!

    –exceed his poll average by 40% in a hostile environment

    I wish I could believe Ostrowski wasn’t just grasping at straws, but I can’t.

  505. Ali wrote: “How many delegates in the country are there?”

    For the Republicans there are 2302 total, 40 from Iowa.

  506. Thanks to CB for the idiot filter… and the impressively quick response:)

  507. After Huckabee’s speech creeped me out I’m loving Obama, the man would wipe the floor with that shit-chucking ape.

  508. My number’s wrong; Paul has 2 delegates per CNN right now.

  509. Ali, you should look in Thompson as a second choice. Obama is less vomit-inducing than Clinton or especially Edwards, but hes an anti-second amendment big-government statist at the end of the day, despite all the nice rhetoric.

  510. I think Gene Trosper might be Dondero’s imaginary friend…

    I’ve met Dondero only once and that was at the California GOP convention in 1994 when the CA RLC was looking for official recognition from the state party. I was a member back then, even though I belonged to the LP. I am far from imaginary…though I am sure some people wished it to be so.

  511. After Huckabee’s speech creeped me out I’m loving Obama, the man would wipe the floor with that shit-chucking ape.

    Yes he would, and I’d have no problem voting for him over Huckabee or Benito.

  512. Jackson,

    Those are delegates to the state convention, which votes for the delegates to the national convention later on. That vote is winner-take-all.

  513. After Huckabee’s speech creeped me out I’m loving Obama, the man would wipe the floor with that shit-chucking ape.

    I don’t know ’bout chou’all, but I ain’t ee-volved from no mon-kay!

  514. fucking insomnia…

    Guy Montag- How is that? In a socially conservative state that relys heavily on farm subsidies and only had about 250 caimpaign volunteers Dr. Paul managed to get 10,000 or so people to go caucus for him. can’t wait to see what happens in NH.

  515. Obama’s gettin some tonight for that shout-out to Michelle

  516. I wish the rest of the 14% would just come in already for the GOP so I can put all this politics to rest for the night. I have so much hope still for Ron Paul for some reason.

  517. I concur with regard to supporting Obama. He is, in my estimation, the lesser of evils *if* he wins the Democrat nomination.

  518. Ali:

    While I appreciate Obama’s enthusiasm and his intentions are good, I disagree with him on too many issues to ever consider voting for him. Unless it came down to him vs. Huckabee. The statist Evangelical base of the Republican party really needs to die.

  519. Ali, you should look in Thompson as a second choice. Obama is less vomit-inducing than Clinton or especially Edwards, but hes an anti-second amendment big-government statist at the end of the day, despite all the nice rhetoric.

    Would Thompson stand up for the war and fear mongers? I am sick and tired of the stupid vomiting rhetoric. If he dares take the 2nd away, he’ll be eaten alive. He simply can’t, may be just a little.

  520. Fluffy,

    I don’t agree with E.D. any more than you do on many things, but is it possible for you ro supply an adult criticism of anything rather than a 2nd grade “mom can’t read this so I can talk nasty” type of comment?

    Sort of reminds me of those Leftie protestors in clown makeup on stilts flipping everybody off because they “can”.

  521. How did Richardson do?

  522. Gene, it’s a very, very bad thing.

    Ron Paul has managed to get our libertarian movement associated with the likes of Nazi Storm Troopers, CAIR, 9/11 Deniers, and Lyndon Larouchies.

    Do remember back in the 1990s how we tried like hell to live down that “You Libertarians are with Lyndon Larouche right?” We finally escaped that. And now it’s back, thanks to Ron Paul.

  523. I wish I could believe Ostrowski wasn’t just grasping at straws, but I can’t.

    Well, what is it you’re looking for? I doubt anybody believes Paul is going to be the next president. The point is, his candidacy is building a foundation for a popular libertarian movement. And even as it stands, he’s been more successful than any previous libertarian or Libertarian candidate. It’s not like I’m expecting an egg in my beer…

  524. Dave, thanks for the link on the netroots and Obama. I was genuinely puzzled about that.

  525. Obama has a perfect 100 rating from the Marxist ADA. He has a perfect 100 rating from the NEA.

    He’s beyond Communist.

  526. I meant Obama when I talked about the 2nd. Obviously not Thompson. Sorry!

  527. Would Thompson stand up for the war and fear mongers? I am sick and tired of the stupid vomiting rhetoric. If he dares take the 2nd away, he’ll be eaten alive. He simply can’t, may be just a little.

    I really don’t think hes too enthused about the war. He might make some noises in that direction during the primaries, but hes not nearly as much of a hawk as RudyMcRomnabee.

    I’m just happy to hear a semi-mainstream candidate talk about the deficit, federalism, and the 10th Amendment.

  528. CAIR

    LOL, how come? They can’t endorse him you know that, right?

  529. While I appreciate Obama’s enthusiasm and his intentions are good, I disagree with him on too many issues to ever consider voting for him. Unless it came down to him vs. Huckabee. The statist Evangelical base of the Republican party really needs to die.

    I’d actually vote for any of the Democratic candidates if I thought it was necessary to keep Huckabee out of office, but yeah, that’s the only way I’m voting Dem.

  530. Complete B.S. Dondero, my friends and i only checked out libertarianism in the first place after hearing Paul in the debates. Now i’m reading fucking Hayek and Rothbard.

  531. andy – I was a pimp for the filter in the past, but I shut up about it because no one really seemed interested.

    It’s made H&R so much more pleasant for me. Big thanks to Eric the .5b.

    As for Paul, 3rd place would have been nice. With all the cornholes in the state ridin’ their welfare John Deere’s, it’s not too surprising for him to get 5th. Check out CNN’s breakdown of the voters by demographics/issues/whatever. One thing I found interesting is the fact that less wealthy R voters tended to favor Paul.

  532. Ali-

    While it’s nice that Thompson would support our 2nd amendment rights and all, I’m one of those guys that’s concerned about the rest of the Bill of Rights too. I don’t want the government spying on me without a warrant, or imprisoning me indefinitely at Guantanamo Bay, so it doesn’t matter to me if some politician supports the 2nd amendment if he/she supports shredding the 4th.

    Not to mention the fact that Thompson wholeheartedly endorses bombing and occupying countries on the other side of the globe if someone so much as whispers the buzzword “Islamo-Fascism” in his ear.

  533. Joe Biden, we hardly knew ye.

  534. wow. obama is our next president.

  535. I really don’t think hes too enthused about the war. He might make some noises in that direction during the primaries, but hes not nearly as much of a hawk as RudyMcRomnabee.

    I’m just happy to hear a semi-mainstream candidate talk about the deficit, federalism, and the 10th Amendment.

    Well, I guess you are right. But why are we talking about this again? It is not like the end of the world. Lets see how things go in NH.

    I will now almost certainly go up there this weekend and do something for Paul. I wasn’t sure if I had the time, but this surely does it for me.

  536. Let’s see:
    Huckabee – Statist/Socially conservative
    Obama – Statist/Not really socially conservative

    If it comes down between the two, it won’t be hard to choose.

    Actually, I’d probably stay home.

  537. Pat Buchanan just that economic populism is probably going to be a trend in this election. I really hope he’s wrong.

  538. Charlie- Agreed. With a person like me and what I and others had to go through under Buck Fush, I have had enough. And someone –Dem or Rep– dare take either the 1st or 2nd amendments from the people.

  539. Reinmoose- You do realize that there are other parties and other candidates? If i remember correctly one of them even talks about libertarianism a bit…

  540. Guy Montag- How is that? In a socially conservative state that relys heavily on farm subsidies and only had about 250 caimpaign volunteers Dr. Paul managed to get 10,000 or so people to go caucus for him. can’t wait to see what happens in NH.

    You mean socially conservative (anti-evolution, seal the borders and I agree with the second one) Dr. Paul got more than a couple of votes in Iowa??? WOW! So where the hell was the rest of that crap I have been reading about like the Ron Paul winter break (or whatever it was called for the college students)? Wehere were all of those cell-phone using folks turning Sen. Obama guys into Dr. Paul guys (per TNR)? Where was the rest of that Paulaholic stuff?

    That is what i was talking about. Not sure what you were imagening from what I said.

  541. Does anyone know where Obama stands on trade? Please tell me hes with the Clintonite wing on this. I’ll be really happy knowing that the biggest Democratic protectionist is out.

  542. FIFTH PLACE! SEND MORE MONEY, FUCKWITS!

    FIFTH-PLACE FUCK-FACE RON PAUL!

  543. why are we still stuck at 86 percent reporting?

  544. Edward… Umm.. your caps key is on. Just sayin’.

  545. Well, the question on everyone’s mind….who does Duncan Hunter endorse when he drops out?

  546. Shane –
    I’ve voted LP before, even though they ran a total joke in 2004

    That being said… is it really worth going out at that point? Maybe if the polling location is immediately next to a bar…

  547. Guy, if you don’t like the word cunt, get off the internet.

    Personally, I know of very few people who get bent out of shape about profanity online who aren’t fundies, and I’m in no mood to be accomodating to fundie losers right now, OK? So take your request for cleaner language and jam it up your ass.

    BTW, you’re absolutely right about this Iowa result. It’s a complete failure and embarassment for the Paul campaign. All of this “It’s only Iowa, how good could Paul possibly do in Iowa” stuff people are posting all over tonight is crap. They may as well say, “Hey, it’s America. America is a hostile environment for libertarians. 10% of all Republicans in America is great! We’ll do better in the upcoming primaries in alternate dimensions!”

    I should have my head examined for thinking Paul could come in any better than he actually did. I keep telling myself that the payoff for this is watching Paul voters stay home in November, but that’s a long way off and I’m pissed off NOW.

  548. Does anyone know where Obama stands on trade?

    From what i can tell he seems pretty protectionist. Don’t quote me, look at his speeches and I have been at happy hour too long to research it. Just my impression and if I am wrong then I apologise.

    Being a Chicago representitive it is not surprising a bit.

  549. Ali – that’s because he read the Trolling ManualOfStyle!!!!

  550. Andrew Sullivan:

    They went for Obama and … Ron Paul respectively. Among independents, Clinton came a poor third: 17 percent to Obama’s 41. And McCain lost out to Paul: 23 percent to 29. The men with the most support among independents – the people you need to win a general election – are the most despised by the Republican base. In they end, the Republicans poisoned themselves. Maybe they’ll begin to recognize how far they’ve fallen.

  551. why are we still stuck at 86 percent reporting?

    They’re probably mind-zapping the precinct captains in the places where Ron Paul won the caucuses.

    Fix! Fix!

  552. Obama = Economic Statist + Runaway Political Correctness and Big Gun Grabber.

    Huckabee = Economic Statist + Social Conservative

    With such a lineup, Vote for Wayne Root, Libertarian for President!

  553. Here ya go Fluffy, fuck off you worthless cunt. There, a discussion on your own level.

  554. Fluffy, go to sleep. It’ll be better in the morning.

  555. Every movement has it’s fringe elements, Eric. What I mean by the “movement” is the increased talk of liberty and issues surrounding liberty and people actually standing up for liberty.

  556. ::They’re probably mind-zapping the precinct captains in the places where Ron Paul won the caucuses.

    Fix! Fix!::

    I never said that. I just want to know the final results.

  557. FIFTH PLACE! SEND MORE MONEY, FUCKWITS!

    FIFTH-PLACE FUCK-FACE RON PAUL!
    ————————————-

    I’m really looking forward to implementing this blog-blocker. Thanks again.

  558. Guy Montag- No i mean socially conservative in bible-thumping theocratic as-long-as-your-a-baptist-minister-i-will-ignore-that-you-are-not-a-conservative sense of the word. The ones who don’t care about economics or foriegn policy, just as long as the name of jesus is whispered into their ears as they’re being shafted.

    as far as the “ron paul winter break stuff” yeah that would be 250 college kids working their asses off and a result being 10,000+ fucking showing up to caucus for the man. Who promised you second or 3rd place and since when dis the campaign rely on Iowa? it was always about NH and super tuesday. no one with 2 brain cells to rub together expected the GOP in Iowa to go with anyone other than Huckabee followed by romney(or the other way) Thompson and McCain’s finish were surprises, but overall this was a good night. He got 10,000+ to caucus and was only about 3k from 3rd, not bad.

  559. Hey, you got me there.

    “WAH! WAH! Stop cursing! Please act like an adult! My ears! You cursed, so I get to just focus on that and don’t have to respond to anything else you say!”

    There. A discussion on your level.

  560. BTW, Fluffy, when you are ready to kick me off the intertubes come and get me, okay Mr. big keyboard?

    Fundie my ass. Come on down to Crystal City and try that shit you stupid fluffy fag.

  561. Guy-

    I googled it and with respect to Obama and trade its a mixed back. Not Clintonite (in this context I use that as a compliment) but not John Edwards/Mike Huckabee, either.

  562. I’m really looking forward to implementing this blog-blocker. Thanks again.
    —————————-

    Sorry. I also meant to say…

    On Youtube, I can easily ignore the trolls with a click. Can Reason implement something like that? Seems like it would greatly enhance the blog.

  563. Hey Dondero,

    With Huckabee in the lead, are you finally going to advocate Paul as better than Huckabee?

  564. Shane,

    Are you Fluffy or are you just dating him? What was that nonsensical preamble all about? That second one was rhetorical.

    The rest of your comment had nothing to do with what I actually said, but I hope you have some tissues handy for your little fit.

  565. Fluffy “Angst” College Kid. Simmer down. I think we’re all satisfied with the status quo of whiney little turds. This includes you, griping about what is essentially a baseline and any realist exercising faculties of ponderment could have come up with. I’m sorry you spent that $200 on Dr. Paul instead of Kraft dinner and Mountain Dew, white boy.

  566. The Filter is for wimps and Communists.

    It’s not hard to scroll down if you don’t want to read a comment.

  567. Guy Montag- I can tell you’re upset so i wont push any further, you acted suprised and pissed that paul didn’t do better than he did, all i was saying is that he did fine if not great for what he invested into the state and the territory he was working in. you disagree but i choose to be optimistic about the evening. I thought i made a clear response to your posts but i guess i was wrong.

    peace.

  568. It’s not hard to scroll down if you don’t want to read a comment.

    That’s how I do it.

  569. Ron Paul got fucked in the ass!!!!! Just like I did back in the Navy!!! I have a very gay mustache for a reason.

    The only reason I worked for that statist Ron Paul was so that I could get to my hero Larry “Wide Stance” Craig.

    Maybe with me working for the sexy, Mainstream Libertarian Rudy Giuliani, I can live the dream!!!

  570. and honestly dude, you got to stop equating real language that real people use as some kind of offense to your sensibilities.

  571. Larry King is gradually metamorphosing into a dragonfly.

  572. Any statistics in Wyoming with the caucus there. One would think that there are libertarians for Paul up there. Anyone? A win there, no matter how unimportant, would be a good boost for Paul on a moral level.

  573. Guy, you said the word “ass”, so I now get to whine about how your posts hurt my virginal eye with their filthy potty talk. Now I don’t have to address your white supremacy or warmongery any more, because I can just talk about how you always use words like “ass” instead.

  574. In a general election that was Obama vs. Huckabee, you know you would have a Huck ad along these lines …
    “Barrack *Hussein* Obama did NOT support our men and women in uniform when they liberated the Iraqi people from the tyranny of Saddam *Hussein*. I have always supported our men and women in uniform, and I supported our efforts to depose a cruel tyrant who was responsible for the slaughter of thousand of innocent people, the same people to whom we have brought the bright light of freedom. Barack *Hussein* Obama says that it wasn’t worth it. I ask you, can he be trusted to lead the fight against the terrorists in Iraq?”
    All the while, faintly subliminal Christian symbols float in the background. And if the Huckabitch does not run an ad along those lines, then you can bet your bottom euro that his many Jesus-juiced followers will spread the word in as many ways as possible. It would make for delicious viewing … just to see the Huckabitch burn.

  575. That Eric faker is geting annoying. Even I know Dr. Paul was in the Air Force, not the Navy, not that there is anything wrong with either.

  576. It’s not hard to scroll down if you don’t want to read a comment.
    ———————–

    True. But if I can remove the non-content, especially the annoying stuff, I’ll enjoy this place more. Really, why not just remove folks who just blab nonsense?

  577. The post above was not from me, but rather Disinter Paul Frankel alias Paulie Cannolie.

  578. “I’ve voted LP before, even though they ran a total joke in 2004

    That being said… is it really worth going out at that point? Maybe if the polling location is immediately next to a bar…”

    I see your point, but i never feel comfortable not voting, and i don’t go for the lesser of two evils stuff. even if it’s a minor party without a chance in hell of making a difference i got to vote how i feel.

  579. The Filter is for wimps and Communists… It’s not hard to scroll down if you don’t want to read a comment.

    Commie Wimp!!! Them’s fightin’ words, bwah. Why dontcha come down from your pansy New York snow covered cottage, and I’ll show you who’s a commie wimp!!!!

    Seriously, though – it gets a tad harder when there are 5 or 6 content-free comments in a row by the same poster.

  580. Guy,

    Dondero was in the Navy. And agreed about the desired fate of the “imposter”.

  581. Really, why not just remove folks who just blab nonsense?

    Free minds and free markets?

  582. Baked,

    I would so come and gitcha, but I don’t feel like brushing my car off again. Wait till spring, then I’ll give ya what-for.

  583. “And I should have said, Paul and McCain lean Statist, Huckabee is an ultra-Statist.”

    Dude you’re welcome to call Paul a Peacenik if you want to but “statist?”

    You’re not even making any sense. You’re just a rambling madman who can’t accept the fact that the Republican party sucks.

    Huckabee is going nowhere except to the bottom of the polls. This was his high point. His campaign is over after South Carolina.

  584. By the way – Condoleeza, you self-hating lesbian bitch, the real reason I’m cranky is because at some point I lost my grip on the fact that the point of the Paul campaign is to piss in the faces of mainstream Republicans, and to sow dissension in the ranks. I’ve got to bitch for a while to get that frame of mind back.

    Oh, and of course I also hate Dondero. And Montag, about 30% of the time. And I indulge that dislike, because I honestly can’t see any reason not to. Life is too short to not indulge one’s desire to flame.

  585. Really, why not just remove folks who just blab nonsense?

    Because it’s easy to ignore and doing so is usually effective with trolls. Besides i’d hate to get into what would be considered nonsense, but that’s just me.

  586. Ali,

    Not free mouths and free markets.

    I’ve had posts deleted before, and some others have been IP banned, though it usually takes an awful lot to make that happen.

  587. Uplifting stuff over at Daily Paul:

    http://www.dailypaul.com/

  588. crimethink– haha! I think I am safe. I am usually polite.

  589. Ack, you are right crimethink, I misread that stupid post. Looks like Fluffy does not have enough handles here.

  590. Free minds and free markets?
    —————————–

    Yes, free minds ignore static. I’m not much for ignoring people… it’s just when there’s so much nonsense from one person… it’s like if someone kept posting, say… “My cat’s breath smells like cat food”… over and over… I think it would be worth ignoring, no? That’s basically my intent here.

  591. free minds

    Ali – I like to use my mind to think. Dondero made me think once or twice in the 500+ posts I read of his before I started filtering. I like my wheat to chaff ratio to be a bit higher than that.

    Also, the filter doesn’t stop anyone who is interested in what they have to say from reading it.

    crimethink – Alrighty, then, spring it is…

  592. I think it would be worth ignoring, no?

    Yes. But, like Paul, I am absolutist when it comes to free markets. And the market will take care of this eventually, though with Eric and Edward, eventually may take much much longer than people are willing to wait.

  593. Usually it takes impersonating, threatening, or making strong sexual innuendo about a Reason staffer to get the serious punishments. Former web poobah Tim Cavanaugh posted my IP address and sent me a sternly worded email on two separate occasions of me doing such things.

  594. The other Dondero is fake. He is Paul “Don’t forget the” Cannolies. I really was in the Navy, really did get fucked by Ron Paul, and I am a Mainstream Libertarian who hates swarthy people.

  595. Huckabitch looks like a slightly manic gopher, ready to chomp those Islamos and non-believers into little bits!

  596. crimethink- Is this why you defended Nick Gillespie when I called him a libertine? Being a good boy, right?

  597. Larry King will play the Paul video tonight I think. He had something good to say about him right this moment.

  598. Great, now I have to call the Dondero hotline to figure out which one is the Real Dondero, and who fucked who in the ass, or whether any such thing occurred at all. Where’s that number again?

  599. Why is the last 14% of the Republican field taking so long to load?

    Guy, how is it that you live in Crystal City? You’ve intimated before that you’re not a family man (anymore?), and anyway your comments here seem too colorful for you to live in a house on Arlington Ridge Road or by the library, and I can’t imagine anyone living in the dismal half-light of the hotels east of Jefferson Davis highway.

    I suppose maybe you live in one of those fairly normal-looking high rises on Fern or Eads street, but I’ve always imagined that you live in the Sports Pub.

  600. Heh, Ali, it can’t hurt.

  601. Is Dondero real?? I mean it … I HAVE to believe that he was some Cold War experiment child, a sort of Manchurian Libertarian. He was created by evil CIA scientists.

  602. …I lost my grip on the fact that the point of the Paul campaign is to piss in the faces of mainstream Republicans, and to sow dissension in the ranks…

    I consider those things merely bonuses. I think the real good thing about Paul’s candidacy is laying the groundwork for future candidates, and getting the word out about freedom.

  603. I consider those things merely bonuses. I think the real good thing about Paul’s candidacy is laying the groundwork for future candidates, and getting the word out about freedom.

    I wholeheartedly agree. This thing has to keep going.

  604. A little more good news for the night. Dr. Paul won Jefferson county!

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=IAREP6

  605. I got home late to see this result and since seeing the Republican results so far, I’ve been looking hard for silver linings. I guess I see three:

    1. From the little I’ve learned so far (I’ve obviously been focusing more on RP than on any other candidate), Obama seems to me like the most libertarian of the three leading Democrats (which granted, may not be saying much). My friend who — aside from being a Democratic activist — is a pretty good proxy for my policy opinions supports him pretty seriously, so for now I’m a little comforted by that.

    2. At least we beat Giuliani.

    3. Though I don’t know that it can counterbalance his less savory views, there’s been talk that Huckabee’s immigration tone was a mite softer than the rest of the field’s (including maybe even Paul’s?). If it came down to a Huckabee-Obama race, perhaps the terms of the debate would shift to leave the awful scourge of Lou Dobbsism behind for a few more years.

  606. Arkady,

    Arlington Ridge road is not in Crystal City, but it does skirt Pentagon City.

    Jeff Davis Highway runs almost down the middle of Crystal City. Perhaps if you knew anything about the place you would be aware of the condo complexes east of there. The Sports pub would be to the west.

  607. Back up to 10% with 93% reporting…

  608. For a good time, call 832-896-9505.

    $2.00 the first minute and .99 cents each additional minute.

  609. Yes, yes, Guy — I’m aware of where the Sports Pub is in relation to Highway 1. I live within eyeshot of Bob and Edith’s on Columbia Pike. But you’re right that my Crystal City geography is not what it could be. I was actually thinking of 23rd street when I said Arlington Ridge, and I did indeed forget about the condos between Crystal Drive and the Parkway. So enlighten me: what would you say is the boundary between Crystal and Pentagon Cities?

    My Sports Pub remark was actually a compliment, in a way, believe it or not. The times I’ve been there it’s seemed like a rollickin’ place to smoke and drink and possibly hit on women at the bar (except isn’t it smoke-free, now?), and since you’re always talking about Crystal City anyway I’d kind of pictured it as your element.

  610. According to Michelle Malkin:

    Update 12:26am Eastern. Shepherd Smith asks, in light of Ron Paul’s 10 percent showing, whether Fox should reconsider its exclusion of Paul from the NH debate next week. Greta says yes. “Why not pull up another chair?” Smith appears to agree.

    Fox reconsidering?

  611. Is Dondero real?? I mean it … I HAVE to believe that he was some Cold War experiment child, a sort of Manchurian Libertarian. He was created by evil CIA scientists.

    I’ve always thought he was the spawn of this guy. Note the family resemblance…

  612. Arkady,

    Only the new top (3rd) floor of the Sports Pub and the non-bar area of the first floor are non smoking.

    For practical purposes I would guess the boundry between Pentagon City and Crystal City would be Fern St.

    The USAR wanted me to take an XO job with a unit at that big secret building on Courthouse, but nothing ever came of it. Used to work at Sequoia and that was one cool red Mach I that was for sale forever at that apartment building just off Columbia Pike down that way.

  613. Say it now:

    President Obama.

    Get used to it.

  614. If this race ends up Huckabee vs. Obama, it will be an unmitigated blowout 50-0 for Obama. This country hasn’t seen an orator like this since JFK and MLK.

  615. Honestly, I’m pleased all around. While I generally don’t agree with Obama and Huckabee on much, they are MUCH better than say, Clinton and Giuliani, or Edwards and Romney.

    Obama: good foreign policy, most libertarian of three Dem frontrunners, less populist than Edwards, less elitist than Hillary, could bring some change in Washington for the better.

    Huckabee: supports the FairTax and the abolition of the IRS. Critical of Bush’s foreign policy. That’s pretty much all I like about him, but I’ll take what I can get and find him preferable to Giuliani, McCain or Romney, even if I hate his social positions.

    I think Obama vs. Huckabee would be a great election, because both are more about the issues than the politics, more about change than the status quo. I like that. I also think Obama would win, which is my prefered non-Ron Paul outcome, and then I’ll hope that the Republicans can keep his spending and welfare policies under control like they did with Clinton.

    As for Paul, he did better than everyone predicted (10% is better than the pundits said he’d do yesterday.) He won at least one county and did well over 20% in others. I think the post-caucus media blackout on Paul is very strange – CNN even put a big grey empty spot on their pie chart where Paul’s 10% should have been. It was as if he didn’t exist, which is strange, considering he was only a few points below McCain and Thompson, who made the pie chart. It’s the kind of thing that makes me never want to read or watch CNN again…

    Paul did as I expected – better than the media predicted but worse than the “Revolution” predicted. Can we expect better than 10% in a state built on corn subsidies, evangelicalism and labor unions? NH will be more telling.

  616. He was created by evil CIA scientists.

    Inept evil scientists.

  617. To add to that, though:

    Let’s say Obama and Huckabee get their parties nominations, and Paul runs a credible campaign as an independent/Libertarian/Constitution Party candidate. (We know he can pull at least 10%, which is more than enough to get him into the debates, and it’s not like he doesn’t have the money. The only problem will be sore loser laws.)

    That means we have three candidates from outside the Washington establishment campaigning for change. Obama would hurt Paul among the purely anti-war crowd (or vice versa), but all three candidates would be more libertarian to moderate than Bush, Kerry, Clinton, Giuliani or Romney on foreign policy and corporations.

    I actually prefer the more moderate immigration policies of Huckabee and Obama to Paul’s, although I prefer Paul’s stances on most other things.

    Huckabee and Paul have both advocated ending the income tax, and Obama is more fiscally conservative than Edwards or Clinton and is supporting tax breaks for the middle class. Obama is better than Edwards and Clinton on healthcare, even though I disagree with him – at least he’s advocating using the market to make healthcare affordable instead of just saying make the gov’t do it all.

    An independent campaign by Paul might pull both Obama and Huckabee in a more libertarian direction from the center to protect their votes. Huck’s the least libertarian of the three, but he’d probably lose. Obama would win, but Paul would stand a better chance against Obama and Huck than lost amidst the Republican candidates and would keep his issues on the table.

    It would be three men with distinctive views on where America should go and the role of the state, but I think all three have certain libertarian tendencies (not that Huck or Obama are libertarian, but at least they are better that most from their respective parties). All three are also fairly anti-corporate and anti-NAFTA, which is also a good thing, although I think all three are moderate enough to recognize that corporations play an important and necessary role in our society.

    Huck and Obama are also moderate enough to bend a little bit. Huck has swung right and Obama left to cater to their bases, but I think in the end they could both be pulled back to a more moderate libertarian center, ESPECIALLY if Paul runs as an indie and keeps the necessary issues in the debate.

    If it continues down this path, I will be a happy camper. If it turns out to be Giuliani vs. Clinton and Paul doesn’t run as an indie, I will move to Canada.

  618. Wayne Root would make a far better candidate for the Libertarian Party than tired old goofy Ron Paul.

    Besides, Paul is leaning Constitution Party.

  619. I’m Paul Frankel. And I’ve been posing as Eric Dondero on Reason’s Hit&Run. I have the Disinter Blog. Sometimes I go by the name of Paulie Cannoli.

    I’m owning up to it. But just this one time. Cause I want to make a point.

    The real Dondero is right on one thing. Wayne Root, would be the best Libetarian for President.

  620. Guy, Crimethink, thanks for coming to my defense, even though we diagree.

    The “imposter” is Paul Frankel. He does the same thing over at ThirdPartyWatch.com. Now, he’s even calling me up to harrass me on my cell phone. Got a late night call last night – some dude just repeating “Eric Dondero…”

  621. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why one doesn’t post one’s phone number on the Internet.

    DONDEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

  622. I feel about the Dondero impostor much as I feel about smoking bans.

    On an intellectual level I am opposed. But I can’t help but enjoy them a little.

  623. Dondero, you’ve spent the last year trying to draw the anti-establishment vote away from Paul. Instead of going to inside the establishment neoconservative Giuliani, it went to outside the mainstream Huckabee.

    Huckabee’s victory is your victory Dondero. You wanted the opposite of Paul, you got the opposite of Paul. You campaigned against a libertarian, Huckabee won.

    You made your bed, now sleep with Huckabee.

  624. Jason, what are you talking about?

    Huckabee is a mainstream libertarian. We need to back Huckabee to prevent Ron Paul the statist from being the president.

    Huckabee, mainstream libertarian.

    If you don’t support Huckabee you are a fascist.

    Aren’t you aware of all the the people that have no idea what libertarianism is that have called Huckabee a “Republican Libertarian”?

  625. Kwais, you do a very good Dondero impression, but Dondero thinks that there are two whole Republicans who aren’t mainstream libertarian and libertarian republican. The other is Huckabee. Every other Republican in the race for President except for Huckabee and the real libertarian are mainstream libertarian republicans according to Dondero.

    Dondero’s upset that his mastrubatory fantasy finished behind Paul, and is upset that Huckabee won. He’s actually advocating that everyone back one mainstream libertarian republican in order to defeat Huckabee.

    What he doesn’t see is that he has been advocating the Huckabee triumph. A Huckabee victory IS a Dondero victory. Everything Dondero wanted, Huckabee is. He just doesn’t like that his secret guilty desires are this public.

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