Dems' Electoral Expectations Dim?


The Wash Times reports that despite sucko ratings for Bush and the Republicans, things ain't looking so hot for the Democrats come November:

"The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst's nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate," veteran elections tracker Charlie Cook says in his latest National Journal election preview.

Small correction: The 2006 midterm elections are a citizen's nightmare. But pray continue:

Several structural problems confront the Democrats in the House elections. Just three- to four-dozen House races out of 435 at stake are truly competitive. And among the 18 Republican seats that are open, only half are in districts where "Democrats have a remote chance of winning," Mr. Cook says. Making matters worse, the Democrats were able to recruit only second- or third-tier challengers in many key districts where the Republicans looked vulnerable.

Stuart Rothenberg, another "tracker," is putting the Dem pickup at between seven to 10 seats in the House, short of the 15 they need to take control of the bus just as it goes over the cliff. Regardless of political affiliation, here's the tear-inducing stat of the day from the story: "In the past decade or more the re-election rate for House members has been running from 97 percent to 99.5 percent."

More here.