Now How Much Would You Pay?

Bush requests another $77 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan, pushing the total past $300 billion.

Comments

[OPUS]

I bet if you put the financial cost of the American Revolution in today's dollars I am sure it would be many times greater than the financial cost of the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Glenn Bridgman]

What do you want for that comparison OPUS, a cookie?

[a]

OPUS:
"the financial cost of the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan."

We don't know what the liberation of Iraq would cost. We only know that the occupation costs $300 billion so far.

[Kanabiis]

I hate hearing Iraq and Afganistan compared to the American Revolution, which seems to be the fad lately.

Huge difference, the American colonies decided to over throw thier government. They ASKED for assistance from the French and other allies. The US colonies were never 'liberated'. A huge, monumental difference between Iraq and Afganistan.

Sure, some member of the populace in said countries probably wanted to see a regime change, but niether countries populace rose up against thier government.

The US colonies were never occupied by thier allies either. They collectivly overthrew thier government and started thier own. History tells us Thomas Jefferson drafted the constitution, not the French or any other force.

It might ease some peoples mind to draw a comparison to our nations founding, but dont ever get caught up in thinking they are the same, they are not.

As an asside, I do not believe any country has ever found democracy at gunpoint.

[UFP]

Considering that the Marshall Plan cost about $100 million in 2003 dollars, this seems pretty expensive from a historical standpoint. Considering the long term benefits of having a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan, I'd have to say the jury is out on whether we are being hosed or getting a bargain. If oil ends up dropping to $10 a barrel in 5 years, the Middle East ceases to be a breeding ground for terrorists, and more countries become democratized (Syria, Saudi Arabia) I'd say it's been worth the financial cost.

[UFP]

As an asside, I do not believe any country has ever found democracy at gunpoint.

Never heard of Japan or West Germany, have you?

[Gary Gunnels]

OPUS,

You sure you want to make that analogy? After all, France bankrupted itself supporting us in that war. 🙂

Kanablis,

Actually, both nations had attempted or active rebellions; in Afghanistan there was the famed "Northern Alliance" and in Iraq there was the post-GWI rebellion.

History tells us Thomas Jefferson drafted the constitution, not the French or any other force.

Jefferson was in Paris when the Constitution was drafted.

[Gary Gunnels]

OPUS,

You sure you want to make that analogy? After all, France bankrupted itself supporting us in that war. 🙂

Kanablis,

Actually, both nations had attempted or active rebellions; in Afghanistan there was the famed "Northern Alliance" and in Iraq there was the post-GWI rebellion.

History tells us Thomas Jefferson drafted the constitution, not the French or any other force.

Jefferson was in Paris when the Constitution was drafted.

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

The Marshall Plan hampered re-development in Europe.

[Adam]

UFP - Lamar Alexander says you're off by a B.

Marshall plan in 2003 dollars: $103 Billion

That's still triple the cost of the Marshall Plan, but the Marshall Plan didn't include the cost of fighting WWII either.

[UFP]

Gary:

I'll assume you're a bigger Marshall Plan expert that I (which isn't too tough), but most everything I've read on the subject suggests that it was an overwhelming success. I suppose that had we not put any money into rebuilding Europe that they would have rebuilt faster? It's off-topic, but I don't follow the logic.

[Gary Gunnels]

Jefferson had a far larger hand in drafting the French "Rights of Man and of the Citizen" than he did in writing the Constitution. Now Jefferson did send to Madison a number of books and some correspondence when Madison was setting out to draw up his initial version of the Constitution, but Jefferson wasn't an active force in its formulation in Philadelphia.

[Adam]

["That's" referring to $300 bn in previous comment. Sorry for any confusion.]

[Dynamist]

American War for Independence=Iraq=Vietnam

???

I love the story of Ho Chi Minh leading his troops across the Euphrates.

[saw-whet]

The BBC reports that Iran and Syria are allying against any potential US aggression. Also a mysterious explosion has been reported 100 miles from Iran's nuclear power plant. The Revolutionary Guard has denied it though.

Run that through your cost equations. It ain't over 'til the fife & drum guys go marching by.

[Gary Gunnels]

Now, Madison did have some influence with regard to the First Amendment, which is evidenced by the correspondence between Jefferson and Madison on the subject. Condorcet and a number of other French philosophes had some influence on the First Amendment, since they were present in the mind of Jefferson when he wrote on the subject.

[UFP]

Adam:

Thanks for the correction. I knew it was billion, but typed million. Regarding the cost of the war, I don't really consider either campaign (Afghanistan or Iraq) to be a military struggle on par with WWII, so I have no trouble folding the costs of the occupation and invasion together as one big "freedom expense" for comparison purposes.

[kanabiis]

UFP,

I was waiting for those 2 counties to be brought up, they always are when I make that comment.

Hitler was elected chancellor of Germany in 1933, by a democratic process. They were already a democracy.

The US state department profile on Japan notes that after WWI Japan was well on its way to an establshed democracy during the 1920's. Military influance and coruption made that process difficult, but democractic roots were already well established long before they entered WWII.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/4142.htm

Therefore, neither of those examples can be used.

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Tyler Cowen (an economist at George Mason) skewered the CW regarding the Marshall Plan a few years ago. You should look up links on Google regarding his work.

[Kanabiis]

Gary, thank you for the historical clarification. I will note that for future discussion.

[Tim Cavanaugh]

I suppose that had we not put any money into rebuilding Europe that they would have rebuilt faster? It's off-topic, but I don't follow the logic.

Because government spending always leads to growth...

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Or heck, go here: http://www.gmu.edu/jbc/Tyler/Marshall_Plan.pdf

[Gary Gunnels]

Tim Cavanaugh,

Ouch. 🙂

UFP,

Europe essentially pulled itself up by its own bootstraps (not hard for it to do really - it was pretty damn successful economically before the war after all), the money that was spent wasn't all that significant and those nations that did get the most money were slowest to recover from the war (compare the fortunes of heavily funded Britain with that of France for example - note that France suffered far more damage to its economy during the war than Britain did).

[Ken Layne]

Before the invasion of Iraq, I heard from Official White House sources (on the teevee) that the American taxpayer burden would be less than $2 billion! (Impossible to find on the Internets; clip ran on The Daily Show last night.) So I'm sure the actual taxpayer burden remains under $2 billion, right?

Anyway, there's an interesting chart at the bottom of this article listing the actual costs of various U.S. wars (in 2002 dollars). That American revolutionary war -- the one that's become so hip with the pro-Iraq-invasion folks -- cost $2.2 billion. So, we could pay for 136 American Revolutions with the money spent on the Iraq debacle. Effective revolutions tend to be cheap, because they're fought by the actual people who live in the country, and those people tend to fiercely believe in the cause and have a stake in the results.

There has been so much incredible B.S. that I can barely remember how the Iraq disaster was supposed to be paid for ... oh, right, (thanks Google!), it was going to be paid for with Iraqi oil sales.

I wonder if those nice Shi'ites will pay back the $300 billion once they get it together?

[UFP]

Kanabiis:

You're seriously going to suggest that 1945 Germany was the same "democracy" that it was in 1933? Considering that Hitler altered the constitution in 1933 to give himself full dictatorial powers, you cannot demonstrate a continuous democratic regime in Germany from 1933 to 1945. As for Japan, to quote from the link you provided:

During the 1920s, Japan progressed toward a democratic system of government. However, parliamentary government was not rooted deeply enough to withstand the economic and political pressures of the 1930s, during which military leaders became increasingly influential.

Emphasis added. Any regime in which the military is becoming influential enough to launch an imperial war is not moving toward democracy.

[Isaac Bartram]

Wasn't the history that tells us the Marshall Plan was a huge success written by the same folks who tell us FDR ended the Great Depression? 🙂

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Anyway, I'm afraid that you've been suckered into one of the grander American historical myths.

[joe]

"Actually, both nations had attempted or active rebellions; in Afghanistan there was the famed "Northern Alliance" and in Iraq there was the post-GWI rebellion."

Huge difference. In Operation Enduring Freedom, we allied ourselves with the Northern Alliance, they provided most of the manpower, took most of the casualties, and established civil order by themselves in the cities and towns we collectively captured.

In Operation Iraqi Freeance, when approached by former Shiite rebels eager to assist in the overthrow of the government, we told them that if they appeared near the battlefield armed, our troops would fire on them. Iraqi forces played no role in overthrowing Saddam, civil order was (or, sadly, was not) established by American and British forces, and the only Iraqis to die fighting were in Saddam's forces.

In Afghanistan, we played the role France played in our War of Independence. In Iraq, we played the role Italy played in Ethiopia.

[Gary Gunnels]

Isaac Bertram,

Ouch. 🙂

UFP,

Any regime in which the military is becoming influential enough to launch an imperial war is not moving toward democracy.

Lots of democratic regimes have launched imperialistic wars; for example, look at the U.S. invasion of Mexico or the U.S. war with Spain.

And of course as both Britain and France became more democratic over the 19th century the more they seemed likely to grab territory overseas.

[UFP]

Tim:

What a stupid comment. Did I say that "government spending always leads to growth"? For your snarky remark to have any bite you'd have to be able to prove that government spending never leads to growth, which I doubt you can do. Here's one example: The Louisiana Purchase.

[UFP]

I think people are assuming that I think that the Marshall Plan was the greatest thing since sliced bread. I made one mention of the cost of it, and one other post that said "most everything I've read on the subject suggests that it was an overwhelming success." I appreciate the counter evidence, though.

Gary:
So then Japan was a democracy entering WWII. Just because other democracies did this or that doesn't mean that Japan was a democracy.

[Kanabiis]

UFP,

So your going to argue that because Germany and Japan were not 'American style' democracies, then they were in fact not demcratic nations. Interesting
qualifier, then by your definition, no nation other then the US is a democracy.

Your further qualifier suggests that because they were not constant democracies they were not true democracies, or nations on the road to democracy before US intervention.

A game of semantics, government is not something that is constant as our own history shows. Remember, the south attempted to remove themselves from our democratic process at one time. Would you argue that we were not a democratic nation until after the end of the civil war? A short 140 years ago.

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Then explain why it is illogical to think that the Marshall Plan hampered European growth?

To be frank, domestic policies in European countries hampered growth after the war; in countries that received aid, such aid encouraged them NOT to change these policies; therefore slower growth followed from these aid efforts.

[UFP]

Kanabiis:

Anyone who cannot recognize that Hitler's Germany was in no way, shape, or form a democracy cannot be argued with. Furthermore, all power in Japan resided with the emperor until after WWII, which definitely makes Japan NOT a democracy until we forced it upon them.

If you didn't want your statement "I do not believe any country has ever found democracy at gunpoint" argued than you shouldn't have made it. Changing the topic doesn't prove the original point you made.

[UFP]

Gary:

I wasn't saying it was illogical. I was saying, from my limited knowledge of the Marshall Plan, at first blush it makes sense that our investment into rebuilding Europe helped, not hindered growth. Thanks to those of you who have expanded my knowledge in this area, with the exception of that idiot Tim Cavanaugh, who has been less than helpful.

[Kanabiis]

UFP,

I dont believe I have changed the topic at all, I continue to hold my point that, near as I can tell, no country has found democracy at gunpoint.

You brought up 2 examples, and I counter argued that both examples, in my opinion cannot be used because both countries were no strangers to democracy. Just because there was a short period when the democratic process was derailed does not mean that these nations were not already on the road to becoming self governed democracies.

I furthered my counter arguments with examples of why I feel they do not qualify as gunpoint democracies by pointing out similarities in the history of the US.

I never claimed Hitlers Germany was a democracy, only that they were a democracy long before US intervention.

If you have any other gunpoint democracy examples other then Germany and Japan, I would gladly like to hear them.

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Cowen also notes as I recall that while West Germany did receive some Marshall Plan aid, the cost of the occupation, etc. (which West Germany was paying for) was two to three times the amount of that aid, yet the West German economy even by 1948-1949 was shouldering that burden and that was due to West German economic policies.

Yes, Japan was a representative democracy entering WWII; as I recall, it had Diet elections throughout the war (1933-1945), though the number of political parties was extremely curtailed.

As to the issue of Germany, it ceased being a representative democracy in 1933-1934 (depending on what event you place the end of the Weimar republic - Machtergreifung or what have you).

[Gary Gunnels]

UFP,

Furthermore, all power in Japan resided with the emperor until after WWII, which definitely makes Japan NOT a democracy until we forced it upon them.

Technically the Emporer did have a lot of power, however, Emporers had been more figureheads than anything since the start of the Meiji period. That's why the basic decisions regarding the war effort in the war with the U.S. was not made by the Emporer but by Prime Minister Tojo (or his successors after 1944).

[Gary Gunnels]

The official designation of Japan in WWII would be a constitutional monarchy like Britain. That's what it remains today given the fact that the sovereign is a hereditary monarch.

[Gilbert Martin]

"another $77 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan, pushing the total past $300 billion."

A mere drop in the bucket compared to the trillions in transfer payments that have been spent on LBJ's "war on poverty" - and a lot more worthwhile too, since none of those transfer payments have ever accomplished anything worth so much as one cent in value in the entire history of the country.

[gaius marius]

I hate hearing Iraq and Afganistan compared to the American Revolution

the comparison would be more valid, in fact, if the british had won.

[mojoe]

Kanabiis,
Sure Germany was moving towards democracy, and wasn't it nice they invited all those Jewish folks to be part of it.
And surely Japan was hoping to spread democracy in China, Korea, and all those little islands in the Pacific.
Go back to your bong.

[mojoe]

Amen Gilbert!!

[gaius marius]

If you have any other gunpoint democracy examples other then Germany and Japan, I would gladly like to hear them.

there are many, mr kanabiis -- but none of them successful. indeed, the world is littered with failed democracies.

[gaius marius]

Sure Germany was moving towards democracy, and wasn't it nice they invited all those Jewish folks to be part of it.

someone should just say "weimar", and see if any light bulbs go on....

[Rick Barton]

UFP:

If oil ends up dropping to $10 a barrel in 5 years, the Middle East ceases to be a breeding ground for terrorists, and more countries become democratized (Syria, Saudi Arabia) I'd say it's been worth the financial cost.

What dynamic do you foresee resulting from our government's attack on Iraq that could possibly drive oil down to $30 a barrel, let alone the ridiculous figure of $10 ?

It was exactly our government's intervention in the Mid-east, particularly its support of the Israeli occupation, that made us the targets of the 9/11 terrorists. A better strategy against terror is to restrain the destructive foreign policy of our government.

If our government was really concerned about democracy, they would quit supporting the brutal Israeli occupation of Palestinian land and also the savage Egyptian and Jordanian regimes.

UFP, in your insipid cost justification of the Iraq war, you should also consider the American deaths, and lastly you should consider if it is even a proper role for the US government to force the taxpayers to finance the Iraq war in absence of any real threats that Iraq posed against us.

[Kanabiis]

Gaius,

You seem to have made my point for me =)

[Patrick D]

Rick,

You don't get it. The U.S. government only forces democracy on the populations governed by our ENEMIES.

Japanese? Democracy for you!

Vietnamese? Well... since you bear no animosity toward us, see us as a model, and helped us fight the Japanese... hey, the French are back. I'm sure they'll cooperate with... um, well, SEE YA!!!

[Boogie Butt]

Excellent points around. Especially that insightful, witty rejoinder made by Tim Cavanaugh.

[Rick Barton]

The evidence is that the German economic miracle was the result of capitalism, not the Marshall Plan. Economic policy was entrusted to Ludwig Erhardt who adopted policies, which supported economic development through allowing private business much freedom of action.

Marshall Plan aid to Germany was not that large. Cumulative aid from the Marshall Plan and other aid programs totaled only $2 billion through October 1954. Even in 1948 and 1949, when aid was at its peak, Marshall Plan aid was less than 5 percent of German national income. Other countries that received substantial Marshall Plan aid had far lower growth than Germany.

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GermanEconomicMiracle.html

[Tim Cavanaugh]

"Boogie Butt" is, of course, my alter ego.

[joe]

"Even in 1948 and 1949, when aid was at its peak, Marshall Plan aid was less than 5 percent of German national income."

You know, if any country out there wants to give us 5% of our national income, that would be pretty cool.

[Rick Barton]

"Boogie Butt" is, of course, my alter ego.

No doubt a throwback to Tim's Disco days. 🙂

Hey, I want a New Wave alter ego...

[Stevo Darkly]

How about Ric "Ocasek" CARSton?

[Rick Barton]

Hmm, maybe. I do like the Cars.