Obesity Death Numbers Need Even More Slimming
The correction to the notorious Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) figures on obesity deaths that Jacob Sullum blogged about here back in November was officially issued this week, in the form of a letter in an issue of the journal. The Los Angeles Times supplied the best reporting (reg. req.) on this I've found today, going beyond merely the admission by the Centers for Disease Control reserachers that their paper from last March overstated obesity deaths by 35,000 to discuss the lingering doubts about even their newer, more modest conclusions.
From the L.A. Times report:
Lead author Ali Mokdad and coauthors wrote…that their principal conclusions remained unchanged: Obesity, caused by inactivity and poor diet, is a leading killer--and the death toll is increasing.
However, critics disagreed, saying that the actual death toll from obesity could be much lower because of methodological errors in calculating the risks of death.
……
Critics said the original study, for example, assumed that the death risk associated with obesity is the same for younger adults and for the elderly. Some studies suggest that older people have a lower risk of obesity-related death.Last year, two papers co-written by CDC scientists argued that such an assumption would lead to inaccurate estimates.
"There's absolutely no question that it's overestimated," said Daniel McGee, professor of statistics at Florida State University in Tallahassee.
…….
The result could be an inflation of the death toll by 100,000 or more, some experts said.
Our Jacob Sullum has been writing on these matters of obesity and the often illegitimate government and medical industry war on it for a long time, most comprehensively in this Reason Aug./Sept. cover feature "The War on Fat: Is the Size of Your Butt the Government's Business?"
