"The President Believes He Has Won the Election"

… but he won't be saying that before the sun comes up, according to CNN's John King. UPDATE: Andy Card: "We are convinced that president Bush has won the election with at least 286 Electoral College votes."

Comments

[the bitter truth]

Unless Martians arrive to cast provisional ballots in Ohio, he has won.

[phocion]

As of now, Bush is up about 135,000 in Ohio.
Kerry is up by about 120,000 votes in Pennsylvania, a state with a roughly equal number of voters.

Both states have yet to count provisional ballots, military ballots and other goodies.

So why are CNN and the AP calling Pennsylvania but not Ohio? Am I missing something?

[Adam]

Senator Kerry....YOU GOT SERVED!

[Rick Blaine]

There is a point at which every great nation ceases to be great. I believe that history will judge yesterday's election as that point for this country. As a commentator on ABC News noted last night, the United States now has more in common socially with Nigeria and Saudi Arabia than it does with Western Europe. When George Bush has finished appointing Supreme Court justices, that will clearly be the case. And for those of you who liked Iraq, you'll love the next four years of imperialism. I have never found a political outcome to be as depressing as last night's.

[Scott Ferguson]

Why do people who declare that they will leave the country if the Republican candidate gets elected, always come back?

[Jose Ortega y Gasset]

America is not much like Western Europe and we should weep?

[sam]

If America were more like western Europe, Michael Moore would be shot dead in the street.

[Rick Laredo]

Where is joe?

[Pro Libertate]

Oh, Lord. We're so much like Western Europe that most of the planet lumps us together as "The West". Our differences are a matter of degree, not kind. The mumbling and grumbling on both sides of the Atlantic has a lot more to do with our status as economic competitors than anything else. Could we maybe drop the hyperbole for a couple of years?

[Andy D]

Give the Bush-haters a break... remember, most of them were stinking drunk when they were posting last night.

[Patrick]

The major difference between the US and western Europe is always pointed out as their "godlessness" and our rock solid "faith". The fact that our presidential candidates posture to be more pious than each other bears this out.

[Andy D]

On a side note, Tradesports seems to have had every state picked correctly the day before the election, despite the fact that it went a little nuts on election day.

[Jason Ligon]

Two great things to come out of this election if Bush holds Ohio:

1) More confirmation that what Hollywood thinks doesn't matter. Corollary: Moore is not just an obnoxious idiot, he is an inconsequential obnoxious idiot.

2) Death to the meme that more voters = Democrat victory.

[Rick Blaine]

Who would have guessed that Reason readers would exhibit this much enthusiasm for the coming theocracy?

[Derek]

One thing is certain: this will be a MAJOR blow to the Democratic party. If they couldn't win this election with so much feeling and angst, then they may never come back. I mean it wasn't even close (compared to 2000) Obviously having the raving-Left identified with their party didn't help. But now I'm not sure if the Moore wing will take more power, or if the New Dems will come back. But regardless expect GOP majorities for a long time. Best part is that Edwards and Daschle will have to sell their multi-million dollar mansions in Georgetown.

[Jason Ligon]

"One thing is certain: this will be a MAJOR blow to the Democratic party."

At this late date, I am dumbfounded that Kerry was the best they could come up with. "I would not have put our troops in Iraq. I will do everything in my power to see them come home sooner rather than later, and I will not persue campaign after campaign in the middle east." That would have been a statement of difference. I would have disagreed, but at least choices would be clear. He was just too weak to say something like that.

[trainwreck]

I guess churches make pretty effective political tools as well as bringing spiritual salvation. It's Christian Nation from here on out.

[Jose Ortega y Gasset]

Please, Mr. Blaine, it's a little early in the morning for post-election visions of doom. The United States is not going to become a theocracy. The American presidency is more smoke than fire. Any changes over the next four years will be incremental rather than transformational. Yes, Bush will appoint some Supreme Court justices, hopefully ones with no taste for judicial activism. For the vast majority of Americans, who sits in the White House has almost no impact on their daily lives.

Now, get some sleep before someone mistakes you for Michael Moore.

[Jason Ligon]

"The major difference between the US and western Europe is always pointed out as their "godlessness" and our rock solid "faith"."

Europeans have constructed their governments in such a way as to reduce risk exposure. I believe they are just more risk averse. It sounds like a trivial difference, but it isn't.

[Pro Libertate]

Rick Blaine: Theocracy? Wow, have I missed something? Why will no one honor my not-until-the-next-election ban on overstatement? If the federal government bans evolution (not just the teaching of it, but the phenomenon itself), I'll send you my apologies. Despite all the Democratic rage, we're still a pretty danged secular nation. Even the GOP, though I do think the leadership does tend to nod the head a little too much to the fundamentalist fringe.

As for the Democratic party, I recommend putting the paranoid fringe back where you found it and moving back to the middle. I'd also plan for a candidate with more general appeal, which means that talk of Mrs. Clinton in 2008 is a little crazy. Of course, an even better result from my perspective would be for the Democrats to implode completely and for the LP to become the "other" party. That would make things interesting.

[dhex]

yes, that would be an interesting bizarro world to live in. too bad libertarians are right below snake handlers on the crazyland scale. most folks are like "well, at least the snake handlers believe in god."

[bushie]

Who would have guessed that Reason readers would exhibit this much enthusiasm for the coming theocracy?

Yeah, right! Like the Lutherans and the Catholics will overcome their differences under Bush's leadership? You crack me up. We'll have a flat tax/Fair Tax and legal pot sooner than we will have a State Religon. Get high and get some sleep Mr Blaine, the only theocrats we need to worry about are in the middle east.

[Jason Ligon]

As a bummer note from someone who didn't want Kerry to win, I thought I saw strong support on the state level for "One Man and One Woman" initiatives. Ass backwards thinking.

Anyone have a final count?

[Brian]

Well, Nixon got reelected too. About the theocracy bit - religious manias come and go in american history like the plague. I don't think it's a permanent condition. Too bad however the potential miracles we could get from stem cells and cloning will be a decade or two later than they needed to be. Maybe if there's enough money to be made Bush will flip-flop on this issue.

Looks like democrats can't win the presidency unless the find some super-charismatic oddball like Bill Clinton. Wonder where they could dig another Cinton up?

Once the 18-24 year old bozos get old enough that they figure out they should vote I don't think the republicans will be able to run on homos any more. I think that's how they won Ohio. It's a generational thing.

[raymond]

Some 58,000,000+ Americans have just actively and knowingly accepted personal responsibility for the past four years of incompetence and repeated violations of fundamental human rights. You have said "Good job. Keep it up for the next four years."

Revolting.

[harry]

Maybe some sort of socially liberal, fiscally conservative generally libertarian party can emerge from the wreckage of the Dems and the Repubs. Long term prognosis for both parties isn't great. It seems like every seat gained by the Republicans was by yet another moralistic religious conservative. The next four years under one party rule, with that party beholden to a morally conservative base, do not promise to be golden years of libertarian politics. The Republican party has done a fantastic job over the last 20 years attracting "Reagan" democrats - socially conservative blue collar types. The problem is these people still expect the government to help them when the chips are down, so we can expect more industry protection, no cuts in medicaid or medicare, expanding deficits and more government meddling in social issues and education. The only good news is that Bush cannot raise taxes.

[Jose Ortega y Gasset]

Well, Raymond, democracy is a bitch. Maybe Sweden can find room for you?

[Jason Ligon]

"Wonder where they could dig another Cinton up?"

Evan Bayh?

[trainwreck]

Nobody's talking about a state religion or even the state surpressing free expression of it.

I guess there's always been a Christian litmus test for politicians to be successful in much of the country, it just hasn't always seemed so overt.

[That Other Harry]

This election is more proof of how utterly irrelevant the Libertarian Party is and how libertarian ideas are rejected by the electorate.

Question: is libertarianism a viable idea and potential movement, or is it just a parlor game for brainy, verbal people with too much free time?

[Will Allen]

Domestically, if Bush were to appoint two or three (four?) justices with a real commitment (as opposed to a situational affection) to federalism, I will consider a second Bush Administration a success. Blue state Democrats would be wise to inform their Senators to not oppose such appointments; would it really be so awful to give Californians and New Yorkers more leeway in governing themselves, and Texans and Georgians the same? Does not the ability to vote with one's feet provide an excellent way for people to reach accomodation? Of course, I have no illusions that Bush has a principled commitment to federalism, nor do I think blue state Democrats are wise enough, or sufficiently respectful of their fellow citizens, to see the advantages of federalism. Who knows? Maybe we'll get lucky.

[Mitch]

Brian, if the Feds aren't going to pony up the bucks for stem cell and cloning research don't you think that other governments and private entities will? And as for gay issues, isn't this shift already underway, signified by the President saying that he isn't opposed to civil union laws passed by state legislatures?

[Jason Ligon]

Just to make some friends, I posted the following in Brad Delong's comments:

How weak is John Kerry as a candidate? How weak is the Democratic party as an organization?

If this wasn't a opportunity ripe for Dems to do something, I don't know what would constitute one. They chose the least offensive NotBush they could find. He made the world speculate endlessly on how he was 'really' different from the president, spinning fantasies about the twin powers of his charm and his magic jobs wand to try to make the difference clear. He did NOT, local comments to the contrary, lay out believable distinctions on important issues between himself and the president.

Look at the reasons the internet undecided went to Kerry. Drezner and several others listed his (Bush's) evangelical unwillingness to modify his positions and his poor decision making process. But we are left to ask, what sort of 'reality based community' believes that jobs will suddenly appear or that the EU will love Kerry so much they will jump in with both feet? How often did Kerry supporters have to argue that he didn't REALLY mean what he said about outsourcing, that he didn't REALLY mean that his only different plan for Iraq depended on the EU violating its own interests to help him out, that his superior decision making process would lead him to ... WHAT?

If Kerry fails, he fails because he was too much of a coward to draw bright and believable distinctions on the key issues of this election.

[SixSigma]

Raymond -

How exactly do you get up in the morning with that huge head of yours? For you to contemplate, and then believe that you could possibly understand the message sent by 58 million people is astonishing.

Do you think ALL others that voted for Kerry were saying, "We love Kerry?" Of course not.

But then again, with the "steel trap of a mind" you have, maybe you could enlighten us.

[bushie]

Although I know many religious people (lots of Catholics, some fundamentalists and a couple of Othradox Jews) not a one of them believes there will be some sort of theocracy in our future.

The only people that I have heard talk of a state religion have been MMoore Truebelievers. May they all drink the Cool-Aid.

[Pro Libertate]

Here's a thought: Perhaps the GOP's total control of the federal government could be a good thing for libertarian types in the long run. Either the GOP somehow finds its old Goldwater roots (unlikely, I agree), or it really alienates the libertarian wing of the GOP by staying the current statist and less-liberty-loving course. In the latter case, there may be a real opportunity for some sort of shake up, though whether that would happen within the GOP or whether GOPers would jump somewhere else is anybody's guess.

In any case, the GOP should take a long, hard look at how lucky they were that Kerry was such an inept campaigner. I think he thought the U.S. was just like a big Massachusetts. Oops. Anyway, I don't see how long either party can thrive on the concept of "at least we're not the other guys, even though we suck, too".

[Fabius Cunctator]

Jason,

Harold Ford Junior of Tennessee. He rocks as a politician and he seems like a decent person.

Hysterical people,

Has the Republic fallen yet? No. Although, I did think Kerry would win and that in that case too the Republic would still survive.

This country survived a civil war, reconstruction, depression, world war, the oppression of various out groups, etc. and people are spazing (sp?) because the boob from Texas beat the blowhard from Massachusetts. Don't we have any sense of proportion?

[Brian]

Mitch - yes, to some extent. But the feds fund a huge amount of basic R&D and when the funding is absent it's a problem. Doesn't matter whether we like it or not but that's how it is. Private entitites step in when the basic R&D is done and there's a potential to make some money.

[fyodor]

"One thing is certain: this will be a MAJOR blow to the Democratic party."

Oh, c'mon now. I've been hearing this for years. If FDR's three landslide wins didn't destroy the Republican Party, why should this destroy the Democrats? Sure, there'll be a lot a hand-wringing and finger-pointing for a little while, but after all is said and done (mostly said) the political landscape will likely look little different than it has since Reagan's first election, with the Repubs in power and the Dems the major opposition party, major enough that they could very well win the next election. Or if it does change radically, it'll be because of a lot more than just this loss.

[Patrick]

The only good news is that Bush cannot raise taxes.

Really? Why is that? Did he promise not to? (Ha ha ha ha ha...)

[SR]

"Either the GOP somehow finds its old Goldwater roots (unlikely, I agree), or it really alienates the libertarian wing of the GOP by staying the current statist and less-liberty-loving course."

No, in 4 years the same dumbfucks will be saying, "But [FILL IN THE BLANK] would be much worse!" They will continue to miss the point: While Kerry was worse on an individual basis, the ratification of the corruption of the Republican Party is ultimately what is far more damaging.

[Dan]

Too bad however the potential miracles we could get from stem cells and cloning will be a decade or two later than they needed to be.

Four more years of restricted government funding of stem cell research will set that research back by ten or twenty years? Could you explain your reasoning, please? It sounds like you're claiming that research will come to a dead halt until the Republicans are out of power. That would mean that neither the private sector nor any other nations were willing to engage in the research, which seems unlikely.

[Adam]

Too bad however the potential miracles we could get from stem cells and cloning will be a decade or two later than they needed to be.

Seem to have missed California's insane lil' ballot measure to spend bajillions of tax dollars on stem cell research (and then have future spending decisions overseen by the new stem cell industry)...approved 59-41% by CNN's count with 99% reporting.

[Joe L.]

Uh Fydor, did you forget the the intervening 60 YEARS of Democratic dominance in House and Senate? mayhap you've forgotten "Me Too" Republicans, the New Deal and the Great Society. Yeah FDR CRUSHED the Republicans for decades, and I'm a Republican...
We desire to return the favour.

[joe]

"One thing is certain: this will be a MAJOR blow to the Democratic party. If they couldn't win this election with so much feeling and angst, then they may never come back."

It's very difficult to unseat a president in the middle of a war - think of how much effort the Republicans put into the "what kind of message would that send Osama" argument. Any other examples of incumbent presidents, during wartime, winning by 3%?

[Joe L.]

Uh Joe, there is one major thing to note here, Dubya won and Kerry lost... Dubya WON and Kerry lost. In 2000 you wouldn't ahve heard me saying anything aobut Clinton's 43% 'cuz my guy only got about 37% and as 37

[Joe L.]

...."43% 'cuz my guy only got about 37% and as 37 is LESS THAN 43, who cares?

"Also how about this, Dubya is the first President since 1988 to win over 50% of the vote. Does this portend bad things for the Democrats, the "realignment" of the electorate? Heck, who knows!? i I know is my guy stays in 1600 Pennsylvania and John Kerry goes homw to Boston, and then Vail, BUT he will have more time for Senate hearings now."

[Shana Childes]

Fascinating post as I have learnt to anticipate. A quick plug for small double beds. Keep up your inspiring work.

[rolex replica]

Fascinating post as I have learnt to anticipate. A quick plug for small double beds. Keep up your inspiring work.

[rolex]

good post