Criticism/Self-Criticism Session


Everyone should take responsibility for their pre-election predictions, so here's my mea culpas:

It's going to be close…

OK, I got that right, but I wasn't exactly going out on a limb there.

…but I think Kerry is going to take it. Which surprises me, since I've been predicting a Bush victory all year.

Should've stuck with your first thought, Walker.

Nader won't top 1%

Got that right.

Badnarik will not get more than 300,000 votes.

Looks like he's just under 400,000. My usually reliable rule of thumb for predicting Libertarian vote totals—find the lowest figure being publicly predicted within the party, then go lower—has failed me.

I can console myself by reflecting on all the other predictions that went awry. It wasn't a dead heat. It wasn't a landslide either. Young people didn't turn out in droves. Ohio did not become another Florida. Florida did not become another Florida. There was no electoral/popular split. And Badnarik didn't get to play spoiler.